Kenny G said the best value on Thursday’s slate is backing the Pirates as +110 road dogs in St. Louis. He expects Graham Ashcraft to give Pittsburgh a quality start while Miles Mikolas, who was shelled by the Dodgers two outings ago and allowed three runs in five innings the last time he saw the Pirates, continues to struggle. The Cardinals’ lineup is ice-cold—run totals of 1-3-7-2-6-7 over the past six and now just 15th in runs and 25th in batting average—with Willson Contreras still serving a suspension. Although St. Louis owns a strong 3.63 bullpen ERA, Kenny notes that relief work alone cannot overcome a sputtering offense and a “terrible” starter. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been hitting enough to stay live and owns a 36-25-3 record to the under on the road, a trend that dovetails with his slight lean to the 8.5-run under. Bottom line: the market is undervaluing a motivated Pirates club against a Cardinals team playing out the string.

Kenny G recommended taking the Pirates as live underdogs behind Braxton Ashcraft. Since moving into the rotation Ashcraft owns a 2.70 ERA and has dominated in consecutive starts, allowing just one hit over five innings to Colorado and striking out Cubs hitters in bunches. He faces Miles Mikolas, who sports a 5.17 ERA and was torched by Tampa Bay in his last outing. St. Louis has scored only 1-3-7-2 runs in its last four and is now four games under .500, while Pittsburgh’s offense has plated 28 runs over its previous five and gets a morale boost from Cruz returning off the IL. With the Cardinals free-falling and the Pirates’ bullpen holding firm this series, Kenny sees clear value on Pittsburgh’s money-line at plus money.

Lindquist is betting the Pirates moneyline against Miles Mikolas as long as Pittsburgh is a plus-price. He praised rookie call-up Braxton Ashcraft’s underlying stats—4 % barrel rate and 35.6 % hard-hit rate—calling him “freaking good.” Mikolas, by contrast, continues to bleed contact: 12 % barrel rate, .364 xwOBA, .529 expected slugging, and a strikeout rate under 15 %. With Ashcraft keeping the ball on the ground and St. Louis offering little swing-and-miss, Lindquist sees edge anytime bookmakers make the Pirates underdogs. He stressed that, given ownership’s unwillingness to buy bats, Pittsburgh must rely on its young arms, and Ashcraft provides a real advantage in this matchup.

Kenny G said he liked backing the Pirates at +110 on the road in St. Louis. His confidence came from Mitch Keller’s previous shut-out of the Cardinals on July 2nd (7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K) and the fact that Keller is facing a lineup that has fallen from top-5 to 15th in both runs scored and batting average since the All-Star break. While Keller’s last two outings against Toronto and Milwaukee were ugly, Kenny reminded listeners that those are elite offenses unlike St. Louis. On the other side, Andre Pallante carries a 5.17 ERA and has been “horrible” in three of his last four turns. Despite a solid Cardinals bullpen, Kenny trusts Pittsburgh because Pallante’s early struggles could force St. Louis to lean on relievers too soon. The Pirates offense is still 30th in both runs and slugging, but they did plate six yesterday and get to face a vulnerable starter. Given that profile plus the divisional familiarity and plus-money price, Kenny advised taking Pittsburgh on the moneyline.

Guy Boston Sports likes Isiah Kiner-Falefa UNDER 1.5 total bases as a standalone play or paired with an alternate game total. Kiner-Falefa owns just a .529 OPS versus left-handed pitching this year and draws Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland, whose cutter/curve combo Kiner-Falefa grades a poor 2.6 on the show’s internal pitch-mix scale. With Pittsburgh projected for only 3.9 runs, the tout expects limited plate appearances and minimal hard contact, making the plus-juice under appealing.

Eric Lindquist warned listeners not to lay the –195 opener on Pittsburgh against Colorado. He acknowledged Braxton Ashcraft’s shiny recent results but reminded bettors that the Pirates’ offense is still bottom-tier and the matchup with Antonio Senzatela hardly justifies a near-two-dollar line. Lindquist’s own numbers made the Buccos closer to –145, so he recommended passing unless the price crashes, stressing that Pittsburgh is “just not that guy, pal.”

Lindquist played Over 1.5 earned runs on Paul Skenes at –130. Projection systems he trusts (ZiPS, Steamer) peg Skenes for mild regression, and the Blue Jays bring a veteran lineup that punishes fastballs. Even if the right-hander is limited to roughly five innings, Lindquist expects Toronto to scrape two runs thanks to power from the right side and the absence of O’Neill Cruz weakening Pittsburgh’s chance to match scores. He also highlighted that bettors get four Jays batting innings against the sub-par Pirate bullpen once Skenes exits.

Eric Pathi said the Pittsburgh Pirates at +185 are his complimentary wager for 8/16/25 because they fit his long-running underdog value system. Pathi reminded listeners that since May 1 there have been 522 MLB games in the +110 to +180 range; blindly backing every one produced a 248-274 record yet still netted +63 units, or $6,300 for a $100 bettor. He stressed that this edge comes strictly from market mis-pricing of dogs—“pitchers have zero to do with baseball betting” in his view—and that the Pirates price lands squarely in the same profitable band. The play is therefore a pure numbers grab, not a matchup-based handicap.

Lindquist grabbed Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at +101 (playable to -110) and called it his favorite side on the board. Milwaukee’s long winning streak has inflated its money-line price, and Lindquist sees regression looming with shaky lefty Jose Quintana starting. He believes the Pirates’ offense—ranking league-average over the last 30 days—can scratch out runs against Quintana’s 3.47 xwOBA while lefty Andrew Heaney’s fly-ball style limits the Brewers’ pull-happy power in the retractable-roof park. Securing the extra run allows Pittsburgh backers to cash even if the Pirates lose a close one, a scenario Lindquist thinks is far more likely than current odds suggest.

Eric Pathi said to take the Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline at +110 against the Cincinnati Reds. Pathi labeled it a "system play," explaining that his strategy targets teams who remain underdogs immediately after a victory. The Pirates cashed for him at the same +110 number the previous night and, despite back-to-back wins, books are again posting plus money. Pathi believes bettors should keep riding the streak while the market lags, forecasting a potential third straight win that would hit the system’s profitable trigger.

Eric Lindquist circled the Pittsburgh moneyline as his favorite wager for Friday night. He noted that Mitch Keller has ‘found a way to be just successful enough’ in PNC Park while the betting market is over-reacting to the flashier strikeout upside of Cincinnati call-up Chase Burns. Lindquist argued that the current price is ‘a little too wide’ considering Keller’s steady 3.55 xFIP at home and a 61 % quality-start rate since June. Burns brings electric velocity but also a 12 % walk rate in Triple-A, and Lindquist expects PNC’s spacious alleys plus Pittsburgh’s underrated bullpen (3.65 ERA since the break) to neutralize the Reds’ power. With the Pirates batting first in a hitter-friendly weather spot and Keller keeping the ball on the ground (48 % GB rate), Lindquist believes the home dog is mispriced and actionable for straight betting or as the first leg of a plus-money parlay.

Stephen singled out Isiah Kiner-Falefa as another sneaky stick, noting the Pittsburgh infielder is 6-for-14 (.429) off Brady Singer. On a slate short of strong batter vs pitcher data, he called that line a cue to sprinkle Kiner-Falefa into DFS builds or hit props.

Drew Martin plans to bet Paul Skenes’ strikeout prop over the posted total against Cincinnati. He highlighted that Skenes fanned nine Reds in six innings in each of his last two meetings with them last year and is coming off an eight-strikeout effort at altitude in Colorado where most of the runs charged to him actually scored after he left the mound. Because the Reds are seeing Skenes for the first time this season and the Pirates usually let him work into the sixth, Martin expects the number to show value once books open—likely in the 7.5–8.5 range—making the over his preferred angle instead of laying the hefty –180 moneyline with Pittsburgh.

In addition to the under, Kenny G advised a modest wager on Pittsburgh at +135. He argues Logan Webb has fallen short of ace expectations (3.31 ERA but just 9-8 record and heavy bullpen reliance), whereas Mike Burroughs has been "lights out" in four of his last five turns, including the head-to-head win on July 30. The Pirates have quietly gone 31-25 at PNC and continue to punch above their weight there. With San Francisco’s lineup slumping and traveling cross-country on a 1-4 skid, Kenny believes the plus-money price offers value even if he ultimately prefers the total as his stronger play.

It's The Final Round recommended betting Tommy Pham to clear his hits-plus-runs-plus-RBIs line Monday when the Pirates take on Justin Verlander and the Giants. Verlander has given right-handed hitters a .283 average this season and an inflated .333 over his last five starts. Pham owns a .280 average versus righties, is batting .409 over the last week (9 hits, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 6 runs in five games), and has battered Verlander historically: 8 hits in 15 career at-bats (.533), including a three-hit day in their most recent matchup. The host's AI model pegs an 83% chance Pham registers a hit, 58% chance for two-plus total bases, and 67% probability he tops 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. He plans to play the Over 1.5 HRR or single-hit prop, viewing Pham as a plus-EV option given Verlander's age-related decline and the hitter's current surge.

Bill Harrelson backed Paul Skenes to allow fewer than 5.5 hits on Saturday. Harrelson pointed out that Skenes has stayed under this number in 10 straight starts and in 19 of 22 outings on the season, an 86 % success rate. The flamethrowing right-hander just blanked the Diamondbacks and Tigers and now gets a Colorado lineup that sits bottom-five in overall batting and owns the league’s worst strike-out rate. Harrelson added that the "Fliff/Sleeper favoring" indicator shows the same side, with the prop cashing in 17 of Skenes’ last 20 posted lines. He called it a "bro, if it misses, whatever" kind of play, signaling maximum confidence in the under for PrizePicks/Underdog slips.

It’s The Final Round tagged O'Neil Cruz as his favorite home-run lottery ticket in Denver. Cruz bats left-handed against Antonio Senzatela, who is yielding a .361 average to lefties, and Coors Field amplifies every deep fly. Although Cruz has not been red-hot of late, he owns elite max-exit-velocity numbers, was a Home Run Derby participant, and leads Pittsburgh in homers. The tout argued that any solid barrel at altitude against a hittable right-hander could clear the fence, making the Cruz HR prop worth a sprinkle once books post odds.

It’s The Final Round said Tommy Pham is the best way to attack Friday’s Pirates-Rockies game, recommending Pham’s Hit or Hits+Runs+RBIs overs. The tout pointed to Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela’s .333 batting-average-against to right-handers this season (.321 over his last four starts) and the extreme hitting environment at Coors Field. Pham enters on a heater, batting .500 over his past seven games with 13 knocks, four RBIs, five runs and four multi-hit efforts. He has also handled Senzatela historically, going 6-for-15 (.400) with two doubles. The in-house model assigns Pham an 85 percent chance to record a hit, 55 percent for two, a 50 percent chance to score and projects 8-10 fantasy points. Because he owns just one homer on the year, the tout prefers the safer hit-based props rather than a long-shot dinger ticket.

While discussing buy-low clubs, Drew spotlighted Pittsburgh as his favorite sleeper for the season’s back half. He cited a wave of young arms arriving at PNC Park and a farm system “stocked with live, strike-throwing prospects" that should bolster an already underrated rotation. Given their poor first-half record, Martin expects soft pricing and believes consistent plus-money opportunities on the Bucs will turn a profit as the public lags behind Pittsburgh’s improvement.

Kenny G jumped on Pittsburgh at +175, noting the Bucs have quietly won 7 of 8 and send out 25-year-old Mike Burrows, who’s delivered scoreless or one-run outings in three of his last four starts (six shutout innings vs Arizona most recently). San Francisco is mired in a five-game skid, Logan Webb has surrendered 15 earned across his last two starts, and the Giants offense has totaled 1-5-3-1-1 runs in that span. Despite the Pirates’ ugly 14-37 road mark, Kenny refuses to lay –210 with a slumping favorite and trusts Pittsburgh’s now–top-10 bullpen (3.78 ERA) to keep them in a low-scoring game. He labeled the plus-money side “the only bet worth making here.”

Kenny G recommended firing on the Pirates at the juicy +175 moneyline. Pittsburgh has won seven of eight and sends 25-year-old Mike Burrows to the mound; Burrows sports a 4.15 ERA but has allowed three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, including six scoreless frames against Arizona last time out. The Pirates’ bullpen, once a laughingstock, now ranks 10th with a 3.78 ERA, and the supposedly anemic lineup has scored 3-6-6-2-0-6-8 during the win streak. By contrast, the Giants have dropped five straight and hand the ball to Logan Webb, whose 3.38 season ERA masks back-to-back shellings by Toronto and New York. San Francisco’s lineup is ice-cold (1-5-3-1-1 runs last five). Kenny likes the under 7.5 as well but views the side as the better angle, noting there is “no chance” he’d lay –210 on a reeling Giants club when the hotter team owns a bullpen and recent-form edge at nearly 2-to-1 odds.

Lonte Smith balked at the Giants being listed around –225 with Logan Webb on the hill. Webb has been anything but an ace lately—16 earned runs on 25 hits over his last three outings, two of which came at Oracle Park. Meanwhile rookie Mike Burrows blanked Arizona for six frames his last time out and has logged quality starts against Seattle and the Mets in recent weeks. Factor in San Francisco’s 2-8 skid and Pittsburgh’s current three-game win streak, and Smith thinks anything north of +180 is an autoplay on the Pirates money-line.

Bill Harrelson targeted Henry Davis for MORE than 0.5 total bases versus San Francisco. Davis is riding a nine-game streak of cashing this prop and has done so in 15 of his last 20 contests, including three consecutive meetings with the Giants. He averages 3.4 plate appearances per night. Season-long numbers—32 unders in 50 games (64%)—look ugly, but Harrelson believes the recent form overrides that early-season slump. The big obstacle is Logan Webb, who holds right-handed batters to a minuscule average, yet books across the board still list this at standard juice, suggesting a fair price. Davis’ identical splits against RHP/LHP plus his current barrel rate give Harrelson confidence that a single finds grass and the prop clears.

Drew Martin grabbed the Pirates at +135 in San Francisco, citing both platoon dynamics and opposing-pitcher vulnerability. Left-hander Brady Falter just fired seven strong innings (1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB) against Detroit and faces a Giants offense that has struggled versus southpaws all season. Pittsburgh is riding a 5-1 run (with a Game 1 lead pending) and swinging hotter bats than a Giants club sitting only two games over .500. On the opposite bump, 42-year-old Justin Verlander is 1-8 and still looks shaky: last time out he allowed nine hits in two innings, and over his past two starts he has issued seven walks while logging only seven total frames. Martin believes those trends plus the platoon edge make the dog “bark” in the Bay Area.

Malcolm Bamford rejected a full-game play and instead backed Pittsburgh first-five innings. He likes Bailey Falter’s underlying profile—1.18 WHIP despite a pedestrian ERA—and thinks the left-hander has been unlucky. Conversely, Justin Verlander is 1-8 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.49 WHIP; San Francisco merely papered over his issues in snapping a six-game personal skid last start despite five walks. The Giants are just 9-15-2 F5 versus southpaws, while Pittsburgh enters 6-4 in its last 10 overall. By isolating the opening five frames, Bamford avoids the Pirates’ suspect bullpen and wagers that Falter can out-duel a name-brand pitcher running on fumes.

Kenny G recommended grabbing Pittsburgh at +135, arguing the market is over-valuing a Giants club that has lost three straight and trots out Justin Verlander (1-8, 4.70 ERA). Verlander’s lone win came in his last start, but Kenny noted he still walked five and owns a 1.46 WHIP on the season. Bailey Falter gives the Bucs a path to an upset; the left-hander just spun seven innings of one-run ball with 8 K and 0 BB against Detroit and carries a solid 3.82 ERA overall. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has quietly improved to a 3.81 ERA down the stretch, while San Francisco’s offense ranks 23rd in runs and 26th in average with no intimidating bats. The Pirates have scored 6, 2, 0, 6 and 8 their last five and Kenny thinks that is enough against a cold Giants lineup. Ballpark and team trends back a low-scoring grind (Pirates 31-17-2 road unders; Giants 30-20 home unders), but his official stance is the Pirates moneyline, trusting Falter plus a steadier pen to outduel a fading Verlander at a juicy price.

Dylan Rockford followed Reichel on Pittsburgh, stressing that Keller’s 3.53 ERA and 26% strike-out rate are far better than his 4-10 record suggests. Rockford hammered San Francisco’s 2-8 skid and miserable 13-37 straight-up mark away from Oracle Park. With the Giants undecided between Landen Roupp or Carson Whisenhunt—both sporting ERAs north of five in Triple-A—Rockford made the Pirates –115 and sees plus money as a gift. He added that Pittsburgh’s lineup has averaged 4.9 runs over the past week, enough support for Keller to finish six strong and hand things to a rested back-end bullpen.

Scott Reichel took Pittsburgh at +110 with Mitch Keller on the hill, calling it potentially Keller’s ‘last start in this uniform.’ Keller owns a 3.35 ERA since May 1 and has worked six or more innings in seven of his last nine turns, giving Pittsburgh an enormous reliability edge over San Francisco’s to-be-announced starter and shaky bullpen. Reichel mocked the Giants’ annual second-half collapse—2-8 in their last ten—while the Pirates just swept Detroit and are finally scoring. He projects Pittsburgh as a small favorite and will keep fading San Francisco until the market adjusts.

Brian Free Pick Dawgz advised betting the Pittsburgh Pirates on the moneyline Monday in San Francisco. He called the -short- price a classic spot where bookmakers are 'begging for Giants money.' Brian trusts Mitch Keller, citing his steady 3.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season, even though the Pirates offense has given him poor run support. He expects the Giants to be flat after playing on Sunday Night Baseball, making this a contrarian buy-low opportunity on Pittsburgh.

Kenny G said the Pirates are worth laying the –155 because Paul Skenes is in a smash spot and everything around him lines up. Skenes owns a 1.91 ERA and has been even sharper since the All-Star break, blanking Detroit over six innings last time out and carving up Arizona for 6.2 scoreless frames in late May. Arizona’s lineup has fallen off a cliff after deadline sell-offs, scoring 0, 1, 3 and 1 runs in its last four games and managing just four hits in Saturday’s 2-0 loss. Zac Gallen, once reliable, has surrendered six earned runs in back-to-back outings (vs Houston and the Angels) and sports a bloated 5.58 ERA. The Snakes’ bullpen is "atrocious," while Pittsburgh’s relief corps has quietly improved to a 3.84 ERA. The Pirates have won four of five and are 30-25 at PNC Park; Arizona is 25-26 on the road. Kenny mentioned a lean to NRFI but ultimately labeled the Pittsburgh moneyline his preferred play, calling the price "justifiable" given the current trajectories of both clubs.

The tout endorsed Pittsburgh on the money line, citing Paul Skeens’ 0.00 ERA in his last two PNC Park starts and only one run allowed in three of his previous four outings. Arizona enters 1-3 in its last four, distracted by looming trades, and starter Zac Gallen has surrendered five-plus runs in four of his past six appearances (including six earned earlier this week). Pittsburgh is 4-games over .500 at home, while the Diamondbacks’ bats have produced just 13 runs across their previous five contests. In a likely low-scoring affair, two or three Pirate runs should be enough behind their ace.

Scott Reichel is backing the Pirates at roughly +118, citing Arizona’s mid-season fire sale. After shipping Josh Naylor and openly shopping Merrill Kelly, the Diamondbacks appear to be waving the white flag; Reichel even speculates Kelly could be scratched or pulled early to protect trade value. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has played well at PNC Park and boasts a suddenly reliable bullpen—‘the unit I trust most on the field,’ per Reichel. With clubhouse uncertainty in Arizona and plus money available, he sees significant value on the Buccos.

Scott Reichel said to grab Pittsburgh at +105 because the market is still pricing the Pirates like an automatic fade even though they just swept Detroit and have quietly played above .500 at PNC Park. Reichel admitted Ryne Nelson is the better starter on paper but countered that Nelson’s own club is actively shopping veterans—Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez and possibly Merrill Kelly—creating a clubhouse in sell-mode. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has an elite ninth-inning anchor again with David Bednar posting a 0.90 ERA over the last two months. Reichel trusts that bullpen/effort combination more than an Arizona roster waiting for trade calls, so he is willing to overlook the modest pitching disadvantage and take plus money on a motivated home side.

Lindquist grabbed Pittsburgh at +111 on Novig, arguing Ryne Nelson’s underlying metrics make Arizona over-valued on the road. Nelson’s 91 mph four-seamer and lack of a put-away secondary pitch have produced a 4.90 xERA and only a 17 % whiff rate. In contrast, 25-year-old Pirates righty Mike Burrows flashes a plus changeup (positive run value on Baseball Savant) that should neutralize Arizona’s lefty-heavy lineup inside pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Lindquist added that Pittsburgh’s young offense is finally ‘coming to life,’ giving the Bucs enough run support to exploit Nelson’s contact profile. He believes the market should be closer to +140 on Arizona, so the current number provides clear closing-line value.

Eric Lindquist grabbed Pittsburgh at +111 on the money-line against Arizona and called it one of the sharper value spots on Friday’s card. He does not trust Ryne Nelson despite the rookie’s flashy Stuff+ grade on his four-seam; Nelson’s average fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and Lindquist thinks anything that doesn’t miss bats will get punished in the spacious gaps of PNC Park. On the other side, 25-year-old Mike Burrows owns a plus run-value on his change-up in Baseball Savant’s model, a pitch Lindquist believes matches up perfectly with a Diamondbacks order that struggles versus firm off-speed. He also noted that the Pirates lineup has quietly "come to life" over the past week, making the home side far more dangerous than market perception. All in, he projected the true line closer to +140 for Arizona, giving Pittsburgh meaningful closing line value at any plus-money number.

Dylan Rockford recommended taking the Pirates first-five +0.5 behind Bailey Falter. While Falter’s overall line is a pedestrian 6-5, 4.00 ERA, Rockford highlighted his strong PNC splits: 5-2 record with a 3.65 ERA and a .228 opponent average at home. He trusts Falter to keep Detroit quiet because the Tigers have scored just three runs in their last four games and rank near the bottom of every offensive metric since the break. On the other side sits 24-year-old Keider Melton, who will be making his MLB debut. Rockford prefers fading a debutante—especially one backed by a lineup that ‘can’t buy a run right now’—and pointed out that the Pirates offense has actually out-produced Detroit since the All-Star break. Pittsburgh is three games over .500 at home despite being 21 under overall, reinforcing the value of the half-run cushion through five.

Eric Pathi advised taking the Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline at +120 in Tuesday’s early 6:40 PM Eastern matchup against Detroit. Pathi’s angle is the classic ‘day-after flip’: Detroit was a short home favorite Monday but dropped the game 3-0, and oddsmakers have now swung the line 40 cents the other way, installing the Tigers as –140 favorites despite Mitch Keller taking the hill for Pittsburgh. Pathi noted that when yesterday’s favored home team becomes a dog in the rematch with no major news, he defaults to the dog. Backing Keller—whose 3.48 ERA and 23 % strikeout rate give Pittsburgh the starting-pitching edge—adds confidence to the play. He labeled this the complimentary value selection for non-subscribers and said to “rock and roll with Pittsburgh plus 20 cents.”

Lindquist is backing Pittsburgh at +125 with Mitch Keller on the mound against Casey Mize. He argued Mize’s shiny surface numbers mask oncoming regression: the right-hander’s .294 xwOBA is far below his career .333 mark, and his splitter/slurve-heavy arsenal should lead to more walks as hitters make in-game adjustments. Pittsburgh can load up left-handed bats—Spencer Horwitz, switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds, and O’Neil Cruz—all of whom grade out well in Lindquist’s xwOBA database versus righties. Offensively, Detroit remains thin without Kerry Carpenter, and Keller’s ground-ball profile plays in spacious Comerica. With Detroit’s lineup still 16-41 in games started by Tarik Skubal, Lindquist thinks Tigers brass will be overly aggressive with their bullpen, further tilting the matchup toward the plus-money Bucs.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Pittsburgh despite the club being swept by the White Sox, citing Paul Skeens’ dominance. The rookie owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.93 WHIP overall and is even better at PNC Park: 2.31 ERA, .189 opponent average over 50.2 innings. Detroit counters with Jack Flaherty (4.65 ERA overall, 6.08 road ERA, .271 BAA in 40 away IP). Given the mound mismatch and Pittsburgh’s urgency to rebound at home, the tout labeled the Pirates moneyline a play-on spot.

Lindquist recommended taking the Pirates moneyline against Detroit, citing Paul Skenes’ dominance (35.9 % K-rate, zero glaring platoon leaks) for the first five innings and a bullpen that can mix-and-match once Skenes hits his roughly 80-pitch cap. On the other side, Jack Flaherty’s lone weakness in 2024—loud contact to left-handed bats—sets up poorly against Oneil Cruz and the Pirates’ other lefty power options. Detroit’s offense frequently platoons and shuffles, which Lindquist believes allows Pittsburgh’s late-inning relievers to leverage handedness advantages. Even with Skenes unlikely to reach the seventh, he views the cumulative matchup as Pirates > Tigers and is willing to eat modest juice to ride it.

Kenny G backed Pittsburgh on the money-line at –140 despite the Pirates dropping the first two games of the set. He admitted neither starter inspires confidence—Andrew Heaney owns a 4.59 ERA and was bounced after two innings in his last outing, while Aaron Civale carries a 5.30 ERA and has struggled all season—but pointed out several situational edges. Chicago is just 12-36 on the road and trends heavily to the under away from home (30-16-2), suggesting their current 10-run explosions are unsustainable. Pittsburgh is a respectable 26-22 at PNC Park and draws a White Sox bullpen that Kenny labels merely “borderline respectable” with an ERA just under 4.00. The Pirates’ pen sits at 4.03, but he trusts their home splits and expects some typical Sunday ‘chaos’ to help the favorite avoid a sweep. With the Bucs priced at –140 and Chicago only +118 in a near coin-flip pitching matchup, Kenny felt the market was tilting too far toward the streaking Sox and recommended laying the short juice with Pittsburgh.

Cash Out Sports Picks chose the Pittsburgh Pirates on the moneyline, pointing to a series of small but meaningful advantages. Pittsburgh has won four straight against Chicago and owns the better bullpen (3.76 ERA, 12th vs Chicago’s 4.00, 17th). The Pirates’ Bailey Falter has thrived at PNC Park (5-1, 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 52.2 IP), whereas rookie Jonathan Cannon carries a 2-6 road record with a 4.97 ERA and .275 BAA. Neither offense is potent, but the White Sox are dead last with a .613 OPS with runners in scoring position compared to Pittsburgh’s .672. Cash Out Sports Picks believes the Pirates’ slight edge in clutch hitting and bullpen reliability will be enough to grind out a win in a low-scoring affair.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Pittsburgh on the road, stressing bullpen edge (3.74 ERA – 10th vs Twins’ 4.22 – 22nd). Rookie Travis Adams looked shaky in his MLB debut, while Mike Burrows owns a 2.20 ERA over his past seven outings. That combination, plus Minnesota’s sputtering relief corps, gives the Pirates ‘a real edge in keeping things under control’ despite both offenses slumping.

Matt Perrault said the safest wager in Pirates-Twins is the full-game UNDER 6.5. He rattled off Paul Skenes’ recent score lines—1-0 loss to Seattle, 1-0 win over St. Louis, 4-2 vs Milwaukee, 8-4 in extras at Detroit, 2-1 in extras vs the Cubs, 2-1 vs Philadelphia, and 3-0 loss to Houston—to illustrate how every Skenes start since June 3 has been a low-scoring grinder through nine innings (only the extra-inning Detroit game cracked 6.5). Pittsburgh’s offense rarely supplies run support while Skenes flashes elite stuff that keeps opponents quiet. On the other side Joe Ryan owns a stingy 2.86 ERA and .188 opponents’ average at Target Field, reinforcing Perrault’s projection of another 1-0 or 2-1 type contest. He called the under a "good play" even for bettors who skip the Pirates money line.

Perrault grabbed the Pirates at +105 simply because Paul Skenes is on the bump. Despite Pittsburgh’s six-game skid and punch-less offense, he refuses to pass on plus money when Skenes is dealing. The rookie’s recent decisions include a 1-0 loss to Seattle, 1-0 win over St. Louis, and two extra-inning nail-biters, underscoring how little run support he needs to keep games tight. Joe Ryan counters for Minnesota (2.86 home ERA, .188 BAA), but the Twins have lost four of his last five starts and could be distracted by trade rumors swirling around the right-hander. Perrault framed it as a principled play: in a likely low-scoring affair, he trusts Skenes’ elite stuff to pull the upset even if the final is 2-1 or 1-0.

Lonte Smith labeled Pirates-Royals a “dead-nuts under.” Pittsburgh is 7-3 to the under in its last ten, hitting just .208 on the road with 2.8 runs per nine over that span. Kansas City has cashed unders in six of ten and remains hard to trust offensively. Smith likes both starters: Mitch Keller has righted the ship with back-to-back wins and is rumored to be on the trade block, giving him added incentive. Seth Lugo has surrendered one earned run or fewer in five straight, including 11⅓ scoreless at home against the Dodgers and Yankees. Smith projected a 3-2 Royals win and grabbed the under 8.5, confident neither lineup can string together rallies against these form pitchers.

Despite Pittsburgh’s ugly, three-game shutout in Seattle, Ron Pick Dawgz prefers taking plus money or +1.5 runs behind Mitch Keller. He views Keller and Seth Lugo as offsetting each other and doubts Kansas City’s offense enough to call the game a “virtual coin flip.” Given that uncertainty, Ron wants the extra run or straight money-line with the Pirates rather than laying a price with KC.

Brad Pick Dawgz played Andrew Heaney to record 4+ strikeouts. Heaney has cleared 3.5 Ks in three of his last five outings, and Brad highlighted that Kansas City "continue to struggle to hit the ball"—especially versus left-handed pitching. Given Heaney’s handedness advantage and the Royals’ poor contact metrics, Brad expects the southpaw to hit at least four punch-outs.

Brad Pick Dawgz grabbed the Pirates money-line solely because "In Paul Skenes we trust." He forecasted a 1–0 or 2–1 type game and believes the rookie flamethrower can shut down Seattle long enough for Pittsburgh’s offense to scratch across the lone run it needs, even on the road.

Malcom Bamford flipped the script and grabbed Pittsburgh +115. He expects regression from Sonny Gray after a 111-pitch complete-game shutout—historically a fade spot—with Gray carrying a 4.37 road ERA and allowing six earned at Milwaukee in his prior road start. Keller has posted four straight quality outings, including a seven-inning win over the Yankees, and his cutter/slider combo has held opponents to a .214 xBA in June. With the Pirates lineup finally healthy and playing at home, Bamford sees value in the underdog price.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Pirates money-line. Pittsburgh has won five straight overall and the first two in this set, while Mitch Keller rolls in with four consecutive quality starts. The Cardinals have yet to score in the series and sit 0-2 this week. Given the momentum edge and Keller’s form, the tout sees value in Pittsburgh finishing the sweep.