Bill Harrelson recommended Elias Diaz UNDER 0.5 total bases. Diaz is 0-for-his-last-nine games at the plate and has failed to record a base knock in 16 of his last 20 (80 %). Limited volume helps—he usually sees only 2–3 plate appearances. Against the Phillies he has gone hitless in five straight and in five of his last eight overall. For the season the under is hitting 64 % (45/70). Harrelson highlighted an 0-for-8 career line versus left-hander Cristopher Sanchez and Diaz’s weaker split against southpaws as additional edges. The market agrees: books such as Hard Rock have the under heavily shaded, giving bettors another reason to fade the Rockies catcher.

B Wade took Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. Tatis has cashed this prop in seven of his last ten and in all four July games versus Philadelphia. He is 3-for-8 off Sunday’s starter Cristopher Sanchez with a homer and two RBI. While Tatis’ season splits against lefties are merely average, his individual success versus Sanchez and his current 8-for-11 run of overs make 1.5 an attractive number, particularly at PETCO Park where his OPS is 60 points higher.

Joey Pisapia said fantasy managers should use the current meltdown to buy Dylan Cease at a steep discount. Cease surrendered six runs over six innings in his latest start, pushing him into the bottom six qualified ERAs, yet Pisapia pointed out his expected ERA is still considerably better. He blamed the blow-up on slider command—Cease could not land it for strikes, issued walks, then became a predictable two-pitch fastball arm—but noted that when the slider is right the ceiling remains SP1-caliber. With frustrated managers openly shopping him online, Pisapia believes the acquisition cost has sunk below arms like Kris Bubic or Adrian Houser, making this the best entry point of 2024. He would still take Cease over either Bubic or Lucas Giolito rest-of-season and expects positive regression once the slider feel returns.

Welsh pivoted his daily home-run call to Manny Machado after noting Brandon Pfaadt’s crippling gopher-ball issue (1.8 HR/9) and 46 % fly-ball rate. Machado owns multiple long balls off Pfaadt already and carries a .600 slugging percentage in the matchup. With Petco playing small in the summer heat and Pfaadt’s fastball leaking middle-in, Welsh views Machado as the slate’s premier dinger pick, calling the matchup "BP at the Home Run Derby."

Joey Pisapia called Nick Pivetta one of 2024’s best return-on-investment arms but warned that his fantasy value is heavily park-dependent. Through 109.1 innings Pivetta sports a 3.07 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 114 K/27 BB, yet a deeper dive shows a 2.30 ERA at Petco versus 4.09 on the road. Pisapia noted an uptick in barreled contact and hard-hit rate that could bite Pivetta away from San Diego’s forgiving dimensions. The right-hander has also swapped usage of his sweeper and curveball, producing low batting-average outcomes but leaning on the Padres’ elite infield defense. Pisapia’s recommendation: stream or start Pivetta with confidence at home, tread carefully—or even shop him—before tough road series where those batted-ball issues are more likely to surface.

Looking for a leg in his potential hit parlay, the host singled out Luis Arraez to record at least one hit versus Brandon Fott. Arraez has a hit in eight of his last ten games and multiple knocks in three of his last five. He is batting .321 at LoanDepot Park and .320 against right-handed pitching. The matchup is ideal: Arraez is an absurd 10-for-16 lifetime off Fott, and the right-hander owns a 5.00+ ERA with persistent hard-contact issues. Just A Bet Outside noted that the plus-contact lefty profile of Arraez has given Fott fits, making the 1+ hit prop—or using Arraez in a two-leg hit parlay—an attractive betting angle once books hang workable odds.

Just A Bet Outside said Wednesday’s matchup is a "holy advantage" for San Diego because Brandon Fott is, in his words, "flat-out not good." He pointed to several individual batter histories that underline how hittable Fott has been: Jake Cronenworth is 7-for-16 off him and Yandy Diaz is 4-for-7, while even Fernando Tatis Jr. has 16 career plate appearances. The host added that Fott’s opponent, Dylan Cease, has allowed 3+ earned runs in seven of his last nine, but still grades out better than Fott, making the Padres the clear side to back. The takeaway was to fade Fott with Padres moneyline or team-total bets and to build DFS stacks around San Diego hitters.

Lindquist laid -1.5 with the Padres against Arizona, calling the matchup a "clear pitching mismatch." Brandon Pfaadt’s four-seamer/sinker/change/curve/cutter cocktail is getting torched for a 13.4 % barrel rate, 50.3 % hard-hit rate, and .568 expected slugging. Velocity is down half a tick and whiffs have cratered, making the new contract look like "one of the worst in baseball." San Diego’s offense has underwhelmed lately, but Lindquist believes Petco’s marine layer is less of an issue on this warm July evening and projects 5+ Padres runs. With Michael King’s 29 % K-rate on the other side, he feels the Friars win by multiple runs over 60 % of the time, justifying the plus-money run line.

Bamford laid the short –120 with San Diego, citing Nick Pivetta’s (transcript lists him as the starter) spotless 6-0 home record and 2.55 Petco ERA. Merrill Kelly brings his usual steady 3.55/1.09 line, but the Diamondbacks have struggled when facing high-end arms, posting just a 4-10 record versus starters who carry sub-3.50 ERAs. San Diego has captured six of the last eight meetings with Arizona, and Bamford likes that matchup trend combined with the Padres’ 28-18 home mark. He called the game "a close one" but believes Petco Park plus the better bullpen tilts it San Diego’s way.

Brad Pick Dawgz backed the Padres money line for Game 2 because he trusts Nick Pivetta more than Merrill Kelly right now. Pivetta is rolling—zero earned runs at Washington on June 25 and just one earned versus a loaded Phillies lineup on July 2—while Kelly has allowed 3+ runs in three of his last four outings, surrendered a homer in each of those starts, and struggled with walks. Brad also flagged Arizona’s bullpen as an ongoing liability that has coughed up several late-game leads and noted Petco Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions plus San Diego’s stronger home splits. With the Padres likely motivated after a potential Game 1 loss and getting a “pretty good price,” he advised taking the Padres money line.

Eric Lindquist flagged Eugenio Suarez as a live long-ball candidate when the Padres face Nick Pivetta. Petco Park played homer-happy last year but has returned to neutral in 2024, yet Lindquist thinks Suarez’s power can still play because Pivetta’s contact profile is deteriorating: an 11.5 % barrel rate paired with a 19.5-degree average launch angle allowed. Suarez’s own launch-angle-friendly swing should marry perfectly with Pivetta’s fly-ball tendencies. Lindquist noted that San Diego’s bullpen-centric game plans mean they will happily trade a solo shot for five decent innings from Pivetta, increasing Suarez’s chance of seeing hittable four-seamers in the middle innings. He prefers a Suarez over 1.5 total-bases ticket but is comfortable escalating to a +400 or better homer prop if the market hangs a fat number.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Padres moneyline behind a scorching Yu Darvish. The veteran is 9-2 overall and has surrendered just one earned run in his last 13 innings, including 10 Ks versus Washington. Arizona counters with Zac Gallen, who was roughed up for 10 hits by Colorado, and still doesn’t have Corbin Carroll at full strength. San Diego’s deeper lineup plus revenge for dropping two of three in Arizona earlier this year nudged the tout toward the Friars at Petco.

Dylan Rockford set San Diego as a –140 favorite and is willing to lay that price or better. He pointed to Nick Pivetta’s 9-2 record and sparkling 2.55 ERA at Petco, highlighting that the right-hander has yielded just one total run over his last 13 home innings. Rockford contrasted that with Zac Gallen’s season-long spiral (5.45 ERA and a 3-7 skid for Arizona in his last ten turns) plus a bottom-five Diamondbacks bullpen that keeps blowing winnable games. Arizona’s lineup is still producing, but Rockford believes their pitching issues will outweigh any offensive edge. He projected the total at 8.4 runs and would lean over if books open a flat 8, but the primary play is Padres moneyline at –140 or better.

Smith laid the modest –116 on San Diego, citing a home/road split and pitching gap. Vasquez has had some June length issues but is generally steadier, while Rocker has surrendered five-plus runs in three of his last five road outings. Smith conceded the Rangers’ recent offensive spike (six or more in six of eight) but expects regression in spacious Petco. He made the Padres closer to –125 and wants to beat the market before it corrects.

Lindquist is taking another quarter-unit swing on Jackson Merrill to homer at roughly +400. Merrill’s price opened the season around +250 in Petco, so the market has over-corrected after a cold stretch that includes just one extra-base hit in the last 2½ weeks. Lindquist emphasized that Merrill is fully healthy—he “climbed a wall like Spider-Man” recently—and believes the number has finally drifted past true odds, making the wager a calculated value play despite the slump.

Brad said to fire on the Padres money line strictly because Kumar Rocker is taking the hill for Texas. Brad has zero faith in the rookie right-hander, noting that Rocker has been hittable every time he has appeared and expecting more of the same tonight. While Brad admitted he is not a huge Randy Vasquez fan, he still trusts the Padres’ lineup to outslug whatever damage Rocker allows. The wager is a straight fade of Rocker’s current form and big-league inexperience.

Lindquist plans to back the Padres if bookmakers open them inside the –105 range against Philadelphia in the nightcap. He prefers Dylan Cease over Christopher Sanchez, noting Cease’s 29% K-rate and whiff-heavy slider should play even better against a Phillies lineup that will already have nine innings in its legs from the early game. Getting out of Petco into a homer-friendly park boosts a San Diego offense he believes is due for positive regression—Fernando Tatis Jr. sports a .382 xwOBA but has under-performed his power metrics all year. Fatigue, pitching edge, and park upgrade led Lindquist to label Padres ML his closest lock once odds post.

Eric Lindquist said Jackson Merrill is a plus-money home-run target if books hang anything better than +450 in Game 1 of Wednesday’s double-header at Citizens Bank Park. Merrill owns an eye-popping .300+ expected ISO and consistently high exit velocities despite a recent spike in strikeouts, which Lindquist labeled an early-career blip rather than a skill issue. The move from pitcher-friendly Petco to Philadelphia’s bandbox further juices his power ceiling, and Lindquist is unimpressed with rookie Mick Abel’s stuff in the expected matchup. All those factors combine to make the long-ball prop a value buy at the quoted number.

It’s The Final Round targeted Luis Arraez for a hit prop versus rookie Mick Abel. Abel is giving up a .323 average to lefties in his last three appearances and throws his four-seam fastball 54 % of the time (.269 BAA) and a sweeper 31 % of the time. Arraez is a contact machine: .333 versus right-handers the last 10 days, .333 against four-seamers for the season, and a ridiculous .421 versus sweepers. Those two offerings account for 85 % of Abel’s pitches. With hits in 15 of his past 16 games, Arraez is viewed as one of the safest 1+ hit bets on Wednesday’s slate.

The tout backed the Padres money-line behind Nick Pivetta’s steady 2025 campaign. Pivetta’s strike-throwing and experience contrast with Philly rookie Mick Abel, who makes only his sixth career start and has yet to pitch deep. San Diego racked up seven hits but zero runs last game; the analyst expects that contact to translate tonight against a bullpen-heavy Phillies plan.

B Wade said he is betting the over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI for Luis Arraez against Philadelphia. Arraez has cleared this line in 14 of his last 20 games and almost never strikes out – a 2.1 % K-rate means one punch-out every 50 plate appearances. Wade expects rookie right-hander Mick Abel, making just his sixth MLB start, to struggle at home again after allowing six hits and at least three earned in each of his two prior home outings. With the Phillies’ bullpen weakened by their closer’s PED suspension, Wade projects San Diego traffic all night, and Arraez’s .295 average versus righties underlines the value on this over.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing San Diego as underdog spread (and potential moneyline) plays. The Padres own the fourth-best bullpen ERA in baseball (3.32), a massive edge over Philadelphia’s 24th-ranked relief unit (4.54). Over the past week San Diego’s offense sits 16th in wOBA (.304) while Philly languishes at 25th (.273), giving the visitors the more functional bats at the moment. With late-inning leverage squarely in San Diego’s favor, the tout believes the Friars can keep the game tight and possibly win outright.

B Wade took Under 0.5 Singles on Jake Cronenworth. The first-baseman is batting just .190 against left-handers this season, is 0-for-5 lifetime versus Christopher Sanchez, and has managed a single in only 37% of his 2025 games. He is currently on an eight-game drought without a single, and against left-handed starters he has produced exactly three singles in 18 tries (17% hit rate). Wade calculates roughly an 83% probability Cronenworth remains single-less again.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Tyler Wade for LESS than 0.5 total bases on the Padres-Phillies board. Harrelson pointed out that Wade has stayed under this number in 9 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20 (75%). During that stretch Wade is averaging just 2.2 plate appearances and only 0.2 total bases per game, a product of part-time usage at the bottom of San Diego’s order. Sportsbooks agree with the fade: DraftKings and ESPN Bet have the under priced between –125 and –129 while Underdog lists it as a straight pick. On the season Wade has gone under in 28 of 46 contests (61%). The matchup also favors the under—he owns a .207 AVG versus right-handed pitching, and Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is limiting lefties to a .170 mark. Even though Wade is 1-for-2 lifetime off Wheeler, Harrelson called that sample “basically irrelevant.” All signs point to limited contact and another goose-egg night for Wade.

B Wade recommended UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Fernando Tatis Jr. Wheeler has dominated Tatis, limiting him to one hit in six career at-bats (a .167 average) with zero homers or RBIs and two strikeouts. Tatis has been ice-cold lately—only five total hits over his last 10 games and has cleared this combo line in just 3 of those contests. Wade expects Wheeler to keep the entire Padres lineup in check; as long as Tatis doesn’t both reach base and factor into the scoring column, the under cashes. The pick is heavily correlated with Wheeler’s hits‐allowed under.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Padres on the money line, pointing to a clear pitching gap and recent head-to-head trends. Dylan Cease has held Cincinnati to three runs or fewer in three straight matchups and carries top-10 metrics in K-rate and FIP, while Nick Martinez is forced to return to the rotation after two relief stints and owns a 6.89 ERA lifetime versus San Diego. The Reds have just one double-digit homer hitter, four hits last game, and sit bottom-half in every major offensive category. San Diego has plated six-plus runs in four of the last five meetings and won four of those contests. With Cease rested, Cincinnati’s starter off routine, and Great American Ballpark’s homer-friendly environment favoring the deeper lineup, the tout labeled Padres ML the safest full-game side.

Jay Yang said the Padres are worth laying the short -127 road price because Dylan Cease gives them a decisive starting-pitching advantage over Nick Martinez. Cease just rebounded with 6.2 innings of one-run ball and four strikeouts, and Yang likes his 85% fastball/slider mix that has been augmented by an improving curve and changeup spotted in recent outings versus Kansas City and the Dodgers. Martinez, bumped from long relief into Cincinnati's rotation, owns a shaky 4.40 ERA and has been battered in recent starts against Minnesota and Detroit when his six-pitch mix lost command. Yang expects Martinez to exit early, leaving a mediocre Reds bullpen to cover outs, while Cease's stuff should keep Cincinnati hitters off balance. Those matchup factors plus San Diego's generally stronger offense led Yang to recommend betting the Padres moneyline.

Eric Lindquist circled Jake Cronenworth as his favorite long-ball prop in Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park consistently inflates left-handed power, and Reds starter Nick Martinez yields a 19-degree average launch angle that can turn medium contact into souvenirs. Getting San Diego’s lefties away from Petco should further lift Cronenworth’s power output. Lindquist advised shopping for +400 or better on the homer line, convinced the park factors and matchup give Cronenworth an above-market chance to leave the yard.

The tout closed his list with Luis Arraez, who is 2-for-4 with a homer (.500) lifetime off Nick Martinez and enters Friday on a 12-game hitting streak. Given Arraez’s elite bat-to-ball skills, the recommendation is a straightforward "to record a hit" wager with the potential to ladder up to hits+runs+RBIs.

Kenny G shaded toward laying the ‑145 with San Diego because the matchup tilts heavily to the Padres once the starters exit. Nick Pivetta is 7-2 with a 3.64 ERA and faces a Nationals bullpen that owns the worst ERA in baseball, whereas San Diego’s pen ranks fifth. MacKenzie Gore has been solid (3.19 ERA) but is coming off a dud versus the Dodgers, and he has yet to face the Padres this season. Washington’s lineup is merely league-average (14th in runs) and must travel west, while San Diego is 23-13 at Petco and 21-14-1 to the under there. Kenny added that Under 8 or even a NRFI make sense with two competent starters and two middling offenses, but the bullpen disparity is what nudges him to the Padres money-line if forced to pick a side.

Manny Machado rounded out the trio of honorable-mention props. He is 2-for-4 with a homer (.500 AVG) off MacKenzie Gore and had recorded a hit in eight of his previous 11 games prior to June 24. The tout said those numbers justified including Machado in larger prop builds for anyone seeking extra legs.

Luis Arraez was another prop target. The analyst pointed out Arraez entered June 24 riding a 10-for-10 game hitting streak and is 2-for-6 lifetime off the unnamed opposing arm. Given Arraez’s elite bat-to-ball skill and current form, the tout felt comfortable adding his 1+ hit line to same-game or multi-player parlays.

Lonte Smith recommended betting Manny Machado to go deep against Trevor Williams, citing a perfect storm of form and matchup. Machado has homered in back-to-back games and now faces Williams, whose 16.3% strikeout rate and 43% hard-hit rate translate to the highest expected slugging against of any qualified NL starter this month. Smith noted that Williams’ four-seam/sinker combo lives in the heart of the zone and produces a league-high 91% contact rate, while Machado owns a .579 slugging percentage on pitches middle-in—the exact quadrant where Williams most frequently misses. With Petco’s marine layer lighter during summer night games, Smith projected fair odds around +350 and advised layering the HR prop with RBI markets for added upside.

Lonte Smith is ready to lay the RUN LINE and fold San Diego into parlays (Boston, Yankees) because Trevor Williams’ surface ERA is fool’s gold. Williams has allowed 20 hits over his last three outings but only six earned, a gap Smith labeled "unsustainable" at Petco. San Diego has won six straight against Washington and finally has the lineup healthy: Tatis, Profar, and Cronenworth all boast OPS north of .850 in the last two weeks. If books open the RL near even money, Smith sees it as a buy spot, projecting a 6-3 Padres win.

With San Diego yet to announce a starter, Malcom Bamford focused on a PADRES TEAM TOTAL OVER against Trevor Williams. The Nationals righty owns a 6.63 ERA across 11 starts versus NL opponents and, despite allowing only two earned in three straight, carries a FIP north of five thanks to mediocre strikeout and hard-hit numbers. Bamford sees regression looming and trusts the Padres’ six-game win streak over Washington as confirmation they see Williams well. Even without a posted line he plans to attack any TT 4.5 or lower, expecting the Padres to chase Williams by the fifth.

JDBetsHQ said he is playing Michael King over 1.5 walks issued at roughly ‑120 when the Padres host Washington. King is averaging 2.1 free passes per start and has gone over this number in seven of nine outings, giving bettors a 0.7-walk cushion on his season baseline. JD highlighted that the Nationals are top-5 in walk rate and eighth in overall plate-discipline metrics during the last two weeks, making them one of the toughest lineups for pitchers trying to limit BBs. Even in King’s lone gem against the Dodgers he still handed out a pair of walks, so the right-hander’s 9.7% BB rate travels. With Washington willing to take pitches and King’s track record of at least two walks in nearly every appearance, JD projects 2–3 free passes before the bullpen door opens and believes the true price should be nearer ‑150. He tagged the over as a solid single-game prop and rolled it into his eight-leg Monday card anchored by Atlanta, Cincinnati, Arizona and Milwaukee moneylines.

Lindquist highlighted Manny Machado as his favorite Padres bat to back in prop markets (total bases or HR) Monday against Nationals left-hander Mitchell Parker. Machado owns a 13-degree average launch angle and a .538 expected slugging percentage, both far superior to any active San Diego hitter versus southpaws, and he rarely strikes out (17.3% K rate). Parker, meanwhile, carries only a 17% strikeout rate with a heavy fly-ball profile, exactly the combination Lindquist targets for righty power at Petco. With Fernando Tatis Jr. slumping and possibly banged up, Lindquist expects the offense to funnel through Machado and is comfortable playing him over 1.5 total bases at anything +115 or better, sprinkling HR at 5-1 or longer.

Cash Out Sports Picks leaned Padres, citing rookie left-hander Vasquez’s season-long consistency and Kansas City’s limited lineup that ranks bottom-five in OPS with runners in scoring position. Even though Seth Lugo has been serviceable, San Diego’s deeper order led by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts is more likely to scratch out key runs in Petco’s pitcher-friendly confines.

Razzle keeps Nick Pivetta on the radar at spacious Petco where his ERA (2.21) and K-rate (29%) dwarf road splits. Kansas City owns MLB’s lowest strikeout rate overall but jumps to 21.6% when away from Kauffman. Pivetta’s lone blemish is the long ball—one homer allowed in six home starts—but Petco’s marine layer helps. If trimming spend from the top tier, Razzle prefers Pivetta over similarly priced arms.

Malcolm Bamford echoed the San Diego angle, calling this ‘the perfect spot’ to fire on the Padres if you can still find –150 or better. He conceded Lorenzen has been a tick sharper of late, but pointed out that those outings came against light-hitting clubs and his road splits remain ugly (5.94 ERA away from Kauffman). Bamford has struggled to time Pivetta starts, yet noted Petco is the venue where he trusts the right-hander most. With the Royals still just 2-8 over their last 10 despite a mini two-game uptick, and San Diego already 21-12 at home, Bamford is happy to ride the Friars as a mid-range favorite.

Scott Reichel said he will back San Diego on the money-line as long as the number does not get out of hand. His handicap is simple: Kansas City’s offense is ‘really, really not good’ and rarely strings hits together, while Petco Park has been kind to the Friars (21-12 home record). Reichel is no fan of Michael Lorenzen – the right-hander continues to pile up base runners and sports a 5.94 road ERA – but thinks Nick Pivetta (listed as the probable for San Diego) should be serviceable in his spacious home park. Because the Padres’ bats have been markedly better at home, Reichel expects the books to open them a moderate favorite and will lay the price provided it stays south of roughly –160.

Drew Martin recommended trimming the expensive ‑175 moneyline by playing San Diego on a ‑1 alternative line. He trusts Nick Pivetta, who just limited Arizona to two hits in seven innings with a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio and has been ‘lights-out’ whenever not pitching in Coors Field or facing the Dodgers. The Friars boast a 21-12 home record and own a clear bullpen edge. On the flip side, Michael Lorenzen struggles on the road (near-5.00 ERA/FIP) and the Royals’ overall numbers deteriorate away from Kauffman Stadium despite their current three-game win streak. Martin is counting on Pivetta to dominate early and San Diego’s pen to slam the door for a multi-run victory.

Kenny G leaned toward taking San Diego but stressed shopping for a better number than the early –184. He thinks Nick Pivetta’s 3.40 ERA and seven-inning gem against Arizona set him up well for a pronounced step down in competition versus a Royals lineup that ranks 29th in runs and 27th in slugging (.369). Michael Lorenzen brings a 4.91 ERA and just surrendered three earned to Oakland, so Kenny doubts Kansas City’s 18-19 road club can keep pace. San Diego’s bullpen sits sixth in MLB ERA while K.C.’s is merely "serviceable" top-10. Both clubs trend under (Royals 21-15-1 road under, Padres 19-13-1 home under), but Kenny prefers the side, expecting the price to settle closer to –160. If bettors see that adjustment, he’s ready to fire on the Padres moneyline rather than force an eight-run total he doesn’t fully trust with Lorenzen on the mound.

Just A Bet Outside pointed out that Manny Machado owns a tidy 3-for-7 track record against Michael Lorenzen. Given Lorenzen’s middling strikeout rate and Machado’s recent return to form, the host expects Machado to be undervalued in hitter props and DFS pricing. The matchup comes in Kauffman Stadium, a neutral park for right-handed power, but with Lorenzen sitting on a 4.60 xERA, Machado’s floor/ceiling combo makes him a priority one-off or part of a Padres mini-stack.

Lonte Smith is pounding Padres +1.5 at even money and sprinkling first-five and full-game moneylines. He reminded listeners that the Dodgers have taken four of five in 2025 but three wins were by multiple runs, which explains the generous price. Still, Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks mortal lately—nine earned runs and ten walks across three June starts, all at home—and has been pulled before five innings in two of those. Conversly, Michael Berger’s soft-contact profile has held opponents to five earned runs over his first 15 MLB innings and only four total hits in his last two outings. Smith expects a playoff-like atmosphere, believes San Diego’s lineup will grind down a shaky Dodgers middle relief corps once Yamamoto exits, and calls the run-line plus price ‘stealing.’ He will have heavier exposure on the +1.5 but likes the dog across the board.

Scott Reichel grabbed the Padres at +205, insisting the number is absurd given Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s home struggles. The Dodger ace owns an ERA almost two runs higher at Chavez Ravine than on the road and has issued a season-high five walks in his last start. Meanwhile San Diego’s rookie Michael Berger has allowed only four hits combined in his last two outings and all three of his starts have come on the road, so the big-stage environment should not rattle him. Reichel added that despite Los Angeles winning four of five in the season series, three of those victories were by exactly two runs, so the gap is tighter than the market suggests. With rivalry intensity high and Yamamoto trending down (0-2 in June, 10 earned runs over his last three home appearances), Reichel sees value in both the moneyline and the +1.5 run line but is officially logging the outright upset.

Kenny G said the +205 moneyline on San Diego is juicy enough to warrant a sprinkle despite Los Angeles looking to finish a sweep. His case: rookie Ryan Burgert owns a 2.33 ERA and has already stifled Milwaukee and San Francisco, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in a textbook bounce-back spot but hasn’t faced the Pads yet and comes off his worst start (5 ER in 4.2 IP). Kenny trusts the Padres’ sixth-ranked bullpen (3.27 ERA) far more than the Dodgers’ 4.09 unit that has blown six leads in June. Offensively L.A. is a juggernaut—first in every major category—but San Diego’s issue has been power, not table-setting; they’re still 15th in average and have manufactured enough traffic to steal games when the opponent pen wobbles. With rivalry motivation, avoidance of a sweep, and a live arm in Burgert, Kenny prices the Friars closer to +175 and will back them down to +195.

Kenny G recommended a sprinkle on the Padres at +150, arguing the matchup tilts toward the dog more than the price suggests. Los Angeles turns to Emmet Sheehan, who is coming off the 60-day IL and making his first big-league start since 2023, so Kenny doubts the 25-year-old will be sharp or work deep. That hands innings to a Dodgers bullpen that sits 22nd with a 4.03 ERA. San Diego counters with Stephen Kolek (3-2, 3.50 ERA); he was roughed up in Arizona but has generally kept the club in games and can hand things to MLB’s fourth-best relief corps. The Padres offense is cold (18th in runs, 22nd in SLG, and Jackson Merrill on the concussion IL), yet Kenny believes a competent start plus a bullpen edge can overcome LA’s elite lineup. Dodger Stadium trends point to shootouts—24-12-1 to the over at home—which Kenny views as further evidence that LA pitching is vulnerable. Given the uncertainties around Sheehan and the shaky pen, Kenny prefers the juicy plus money on San Diego to laying –178 with the Dodgers.

Kenny G said he would "ever-so-slightly" back the plus-130 Padres because the matchup and price both tilt in San Diego’s favor. Dylan Cease just blanked the Dodgers for seven innings (3 H, 0 R, 11 K) and has posted a 2.95 ERA over his last six starts after ironing out early-season command issues. The Padres also bring the No. 6 bullpen in baseball (3.21 ERA), while Los Angeles is running out a relief corps with a 4.08 ERA that Kenny called "flat-out shaky." Shohei Ohtani is an electric storyline, but this will be his first mound appearance of 2025, and Kenny doubts Dave Roberts lets him go deeper than 4–5 innings, potentially exposing that weak pen. Factor in a San Diego lineup that is mediocre (22nd in runs, 24th in SLG) yet still draws a park upgrade at Dodger Stadium, Kenny believes the gap between these clubs is smaller than the price and is willing to grab the juicy underdog moneyline rather than lay –155 with an L.A. team whose pitching plan is full of question marks.

Despite admitting the Padres burned him yesterday, Kenny G leaned right back to San Diego at +123, citing a clear pitching edge over Zac Gallen and Arizona’s bullpen. Ryan Burgert has quietly strung together two strong starts (10.1 IP, 1 ER combined), and the Friars support him with MLB’s sixth-best bullpen ERA (3.14). Gallen owns a bloated 5.15 ERA and just surrendered three homers at Cincinnati, while the Diamondbacks’ relief corps is fourth worst in baseball (5.21 ERA). Arizona’s explosive offense (top-six in runs, average and OBP) masks those pitching woes, but Kenny thinks a cold Padres lineup can still scratch out enough against Gallen. With both clubs basically .500 in their respective road/home splits and the total sitting at 9.5, he leans Padres and a correlated under, but the money-line dog is his preferred angle in this matchup.

It's The Final Round said Manny Machado is a must-bet for Saturday player props against Zac Gallen. The tout pointed out that Gallen has surrendered a .306 batting average to right-handed hitters over his last three starts, while Machado has obliterated righties for a .542 average in the past 10 days (26 PA). Machado has cleared 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 9 of his last 11, topped 1.5 total bases in 7 of 9, scored a run in 7 of 8, and logged a hit in 8 of 10. His launch-angle sweet-spot rate sits at 37.6%, ranking 67th in MLB, indicating quality contact. The tout also referenced the hitter’s decent history vs Gallen (4-for-13, .308). Recommended angles included over 1.5 total bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs, or simply parlaying him for a hit depending on posted odds.