Lindquist played San Francisco at –105, explaining that Landen Ruff’s underlying metrics (32 % hard-hit rate, .395 xSLG) are solid enough when paired with the Giants’ rested high-leverage bullpen. Detroit’s Jackson Jobe has out-pitched his peripherals (4.06 ERA vs 4.47 xERA) while carrying a worrisome sub-18 % strikeout rate and 12.3 % walk rate, making him ripe for regression against left-handed thumpers Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. With San Francisco holding a clear relief advantage and Detroit’s offense overly dependent on a handful of young bats, Lindquist felt the Giants should be small road favorites and labeled the money line his preferred early-window wager.

Peterson played Over 7 with his model spitting out 7.3. Webb’s 4.08 road ERA and Flaherty’s 1.9 HR/9 suggest both starters can be touched, while Detroit’s top-five offense regularly pushes totals higher. Even a neutral Comerica Park won’t be enough to keep this matchup under the posted number in Peterson’s view.

Kingpin Sports recommended Giants ‑1.5, stressing Logan Webb’s 2.67 ERA and elite command against Jack Flaherty’s 4.39 mark. They argue Webb will work deep, limit traffic, and allow San Francisco’s lineup to build a multi-run cushion.

Lonte Smith grabbed the Giants at pick-em money, arguing Detroit’s home aura is masking real pitching trends. Logan Webb just gave up 10 hits to Kansas City yet has still held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in four straight road starts, so Smith expects a quick bounce-back. Jack Flaherty, by contrast, has lost six of his last seven outings, surrendering 10 homers in that span and eight earned runs across his last two Comerica appearances. While the Tigers are 18-8 at home, they are only 5-5 in their last ten, exactly matching San Francisco’s 6-4 surge. With both offenses cold and the total properly hung at seven, Smith forecasted another 3-2, 3-1 type game and opted for the Giants’ money line and run line (+1.5) as the sharper side.

Just A Bet Outside said Logan Webb is set up for a big strikeout night in Detroit. The Tigers own the ninth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (22.5%). Webb has punched out at least a batter per inning this season and actually posts a higher K-rate on the road (30.1%) than at Oracle. His last three road starts produced 9, 6, and 12 strikeouts. Facing a swing-and-miss Tigers lineup that struggles with righty sinker/slider mixes, Webb’s strikeout over looks like the actionable angle.

Lindquist recommended the first-five under 3.5 in Giants-Tigers, explaining that Logan Webb’s sinker is producing a 60% ground-ball rate while Jack Flaherty’s underlying numbers (3.12 xERA, 29% K-minus-BB last three starts) point to incoming positive regression. Both pitchers limit lift and hard contact, so Lindquist expects quick innings and few early scoring chances. He admitted the vig is a bit heavy but still projects only 2.9 combined runs through five, giving enough edge to play the under at anything better than ‑125.

Dana Lane advised laying the –1.5 run line with San Francisco at +145 in Game 2 against Detroit. His confidence centers on Logan Webb’s 2.67 season ERA and a 2.46 ERA over his last four outings despite a modest 2-2 record. Lane noted the Giants are just 6-5 in Webb starts only because of inconsistent run support, yet in Webb’s four-game sample San Francisco outscored opponents 18-4 in the wins and was shut out in the two losses. Historically the Giants thrive as chalk, cashing 64 percent of games as favorites this season and 61 percent since 2021—fifth-best in MLB over that span. With 76 percent of early money already on San Francisco and the line creeping from –116 to –120, Lane expects a bounce-back after Monday’s 3-1 loss and prefers the plus-money reward on the run line rather than laying the short moneyline price.

Scott Jenstad pegged Kyle Harrison as the top starting-pitcher pickup of the week wherever he was dropped. The 23-year-old southpaw threw four innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts Sunday while sitting on a 60-pitch cap after a brief bullpen stint. Harrison owns a long minor-league track record of 30 %-plus strike-out rates and still flashes a plus fastball/slider combo that can miss bats in bunches. Jenstad acknowledged the Giants will be cautious with innings and that Justin Verlander’s pec strain could heal quickly, but Harrison’s upside—especially in Oracle Park—outweighs the workload risk in 12- and 15-team leagues starved for starting pitching.

Scott Reichel said the Giants are worth a play at essentially even money because rookie Mason Birdsong (2-0, 1.91 ERA) owns a massive form edge over Detroit’s Keider Montero (1-1, 5.28 ERA). Reichel noted both offenses have cooled – San Francisco scored just nine runs in its last three games while Detroit was held in check all weekend until Tarik Skubal’s complete-game gem bailed them out Sunday. With two struggling line-ups and Birdsong’s swing-and-miss stuff, he expects a low-scoring script and paired his money-line lean with the full-game under 8.5 (juiced to –122). In his words, “I don’t really like Montero at all, I’ll go Birdsong instead.”

Eric Halterman urged adding Hayden Birdsong now that Jordan Hicks slid to the bullpen and opened a permanent rotation seat. Birdsong blanked Kansas City over five innings in his season debut and owns a 1.91 ERA, though Halterman pointed to a 3.57 SIERA that keeps expectations realistic. A 24 % strikeout rate, 8 % walk rate and pitcher-friendly Oracle Park give him a solid floor, and Birdsong has historically missed more bats as a starter in the minors. If the control gains hold, Halterman believes Birdsong can settle in as a mid-rotation arm who piles up strikeouts and ratios good enough to matter in mixed leagues.

Peter Dewey advised taking the Giants’ First-5 moneyline at –120, pointing to rookie opener Hayden Birdsong’s 1.91 ERA (3.74 xERA) and the league-best 2.62 bullpen ERA ready to bridge any early exit. Detroit counters with Keider Montero, sporting a 5.28 ERA, 35 hits allowed in 30.2 innings, and four outings of 3+ runs in six tries. Statcast pegs Montero in the 9th percentile for pitching run value and 24th percentile xERA. Dewey trusts San Francisco’s arms to stifle a mediocre Tigers offense while Montero’s struggles dig an early hole.

Kingpin targeted Matt Chapman for over 1.5 total bases against Mike Soroka. Soroka has stumbled to a 1-2 record with a 5.95 ERA and ranks bottom-10 in barrel rate allowed (11%). Opposite him, Robbie Ray is undefeated at 6-0 with a 2.67 ERA, positioning San Francisco as firm favorites and giving Chapman ample plate appearances. Chapman’s 53% hard-hit rate versus righties pairs well with spacious Nationals Park gaps, converting liners into doubles. With the Nationals’ bullpen carrying a 4.98 ERA and fatigue after a double-header Friday, Kingpin sees Chapman collecting at least one extra-base hit and clearing the 1.5-base prop.

Kenny G said to lay the –160 with San Francisco because Robbie Ray continues to pitch like a Cy Young candidate while Washington counters with struggling Michael Soroka and a bottom-two bullpen. Ray is 6-0 with a 2.67 ERA and has allowed zero runs in three of his past four starts. The Giants bullpen backs him with a league-best 2.61 ERA. Soroka owns a 5.95 ERA, has already surrendered four homers in just four outings, and Washington is 1-3 in his starts. Kenny pointed out the Nationals’ pen (6.24 ERA) and middling lineup (14th in runs, 19th OBP) as further liabilities. Although San Francisco’s surface numbers suggest a top-10 scoring offense, Kenny trusts the more telling slash line—19th in slugging, 22nd in average—which inflates Ray’s importance and keeps the money-line price reasonable. He labelled this a classic Sunday bounce-back spot after the Giants were shut out yesterday and hinted it could end up in the pinned comment as one of his stronger plays.

JD Bets played Kyle Harrison over 1.5 earned runs. Harrison is averaging 3.4 ER in 2024 and has allowed at least two in four of five. Washington has been quietly hot—eighth in runs over the last ten, scoring 4.9 per game—so JD thinks the market is under-pricing their offense. He noted that several Nats hitters have success versus Harrison in limited history and questioned why the book hung such a low number, concluding the line is simply wrong.

Kenny G "slightly" preferred San Francisco at –136, citing the matchup of elite versus disastrous bullpens. Rookie lefty Kyle Harrison makes his first start after four solid bullpen appearances and hands the ball to MLB’s best relief unit (2.62 ERA). Washington counters with Jake Irvin (3-1, 3.88 ERA) before exposing a bullpen carrying a 6.27 ERA—the worst in baseball. Offensively, the Giants are cooling (22nd AVG, 17th SLG) but are still 9th in runs, whereas the Nationals’ surface scoring rank (12th) masks middling contact skills (17th AVG/OBP). Trend-wise, both clubs are over machines—San Francisco 16-7-1 and Washington 14-9-1 to the over in their respective home/road splits—but Kenny prefers bullpen stability in a pick’em-ish environment. He expects Harrison to give four to five competitive frames, the Giants’ late-inning edge to decide things, and is willing to eat the modest juice.

Joe Jensen backed the Giants at -141 on the moneyline, grading it as a three-star wager. He stressed that San Francisco’s relief corps owns an MLB-best 2.66 ERA and just threw four more scoreless frames in Friday’s 4-0 win, giving them a clear late-inning edge. Although rookie lefty Kyle Harrison will be capped near 60 pitches in his first start of 2025, Jensen noted his 96 mph fastball and 3.38 ERA in four relief outings suggest he can keep Washington quiet for 3-4 innings before turning it over to that elite bullpen. On the other side, Nationals starter Jake Irvin has a serviceable 3.88 ERA but only 40 K in 60.1 IP and has allowed three-plus runs in three of his last six outings. With the Giants batting 4.3 runs per game and showing they can string together quality ABs versus right-handers, Jensen projects 4-5 San Francisco runs and a 5-3 victory, giving the Giants enough cushion to cash the ML ticket.

Jensen warned that Harrison’s first start of 2025 comes with significant DFS risk. The 23-year-old southpaw has flashed a 96 mph fastball and a 3.38 ERA with seven strikeouts over 5.1 bullpen innings, but manager Bob Melvin said the youngster will be restricted to roughly 60 pitches on Saturday. That ceiling likely caps him at three, maybe four innings—insufficient for a fantasy win and leaving little room for strikeout volume. Facing a Nationals lineup averaging 4.9 runs over its last 10 games and led by left-handed slugger James Wood (12 homers), Harrison’s combination of pitch-count leash and matchup volatility makes him more of a tournament dart than a cash-game option, and season-long managers should wait until he’s fully stretched out.

Jensen spotlighted Jung Hoo Lee as a key bat to ride in DFS on Saturday. Lee enters with a four-game hitting streak and a .282/.344/.424 slash line that includes six homers. He reached base twice in the series opener and now draws right-hander Jake Irvin, whose middling 19.1% strikeout rate leaves him vulnerable to contact hitters. Jensen expects San Francisco to generate 4-5 runs and specifically cited Lee—who owns a .298 average and .830 OPS against righties this season—as one of the likeliest catalysts. With leadoff duties secure and the park’s spacious gaps boosting his doubles upside, Lee profiles as a strong mid-tier outfield play on Saturday’s main slate.

Peterson played Over 8.5 (projected 9.1) because both starting pitchers bring question marks and the Nationals’ pen is a gas can. Kyle Harrison makes his first 2025 start after four relief outings (3.38 ERA in 5.1 IP) but was a 4.56 ERA arm as a rookie starter last year. Washington’s Jake Irvin owns a tidy 3.88 ERA, yet his 4.90 FIP and middling strikeout rate scream regression. Most importantly, Irvin hands the ball to a bullpen sporting a league-worst 6.22 ERA. Even a modest Giants lineup should score late, while Harrison’s limited leash means plenty of innings for a San Francisco pen that has been league-average at best. Peterson sees both clubs reaching four runs.

Marcus likes stacking Giants lefthanders Mike Yastrzemski ($3,900), Jung Hoo Lee ($4,100) and Heliot Ramos ($4,000) against Jake Irvin. Irvin has allowed a 13.9% barrel rate, 1.49 HR/9 and strikes out only 16.1% of hitters, creating the ideal conditions for a multi-homer stack in Nationals Park.

Kenny G’s primary play in Giants–Nationals is Over 8 runs. He noted Landen Rupe (4.11 ERA) has been solid lately but still profiles as a contact arm, while MacKenzie Gore (3.67 ERA) just allowed 10 hits in 3.2 innings to Baltimore. The real angle is the bullpens: Washington’s relief unit owns an ugly 6.22 ERA, easily worst in MLB, and San Francisco’s league-best 2.66 bullpen can be neutralized because the Giants are traveling and have already worked heavily this week. Offensively, Washington is red hot—scoring 8, 5, 10, 10, 4 and 2 in its five-game win streak—and now sits 13th in runs. San Francisco remains ninth in runs even with a .236 team average. Betting trends bolster the case: the Giants are 16-7-1 to the over on the road, the Nats 14-9-1 to the over at home. With both lineups in sneaky good form and neither starter projected to work deep, Kenny sees multiple paths to nine or more total runs.

In addition to siding with Washington, Smith likes the full-game Over 8. He cited San Francisco’s contact-first starter Keaton Arouse working on short rest and MacKenzie Gore’s recent command hiccups (10 hits and multiple walks in 3.2 IP vs Baltimore) as reasons to believe both clubs can score. The Nationals have cleared five runs in three straight, and Smith expects their aggressive approach to translate versus a Giants staff that owns a below-average strikeout rate away from Oracle Park. Given Washington’s hot bats and San Francisco’s bullpen occasionally leaking oil on the road, he projects a 5-4 or 6-4 type game that sneaks Over the posted total.

Reichel acknowledged that MacKenzie Gore is the better arm on paper, but he still prefers the Giants on the moneyline. San Francisco is 29-21 overall and owns a markedly stronger bullpen than Washington, which sits 22-27 and just lost Cruz to injury. Reichel added that starter Keaton Arouse has allowed only four earned runs across his last three starts (one six-inning scoreless gem included). In what he expects to be a one-run game, Reichel said he "definitely trusts San Francisco’s bullpen a lot more" and projected a 4-3 Giants win.

Dylan Rockford advised laying whatever price the books post on San Francisco and even taking the run line because Logan Webb is back on the Oracle Park mound. Rockford reminded listeners that Webb owns a microscopic 0.64 ERA at home this season—just two earned runs across four starts—with the Giants 3-1 in those outings. He added that San Francisco’s lineup is batting .256 in its own park and should feast on Kansas City’s probable starter, minor-league call-up Lenny Avila (or even Cole Ragans if the Royals shuffle plans). Rockford sees no reliable offense on the visiting side and projected the Giants north of –200, calling any cheaper number a gift.

Heliot Ramos is a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime against Michael Wacha and has collected a hit in nine of his last 10 games. The tout flagged him as an under-the-radar hit prop play.

Data Skrive projected San Francisco to win 4-3 and assigned the Giants a 58% win probability, slightly higher than the 57.6% implied by the -136 moneyline. They pointed to San Francisco’s 19-10 record as a favorite this season (16-5 when priced at -136 or shorter) and a sturdy 3.09 team ERA over the last 10 games. Kansas City, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last seven when priced at +115 or longer and is averaging just 2.3 runs over its past 10 contests. With Daniel Lynch opposing Jordan Hicks and the Giants’ bullpen sporting an 8.2 K/9 in that same span, the model saw enough edge to recommend laying the short juice on the home side.

Perrault played the full-game under 7.5, citing several converging angles: Royals road games are 16-7-1 to the under, Giants home games 15-10 to the under, and every contest on this six-game San Francisco homestand has cashed an under. Logan Webb’s home splits (0.64 ERA) anchor one side, while the Giants’ own sputtering offense has produced four straight unders. He projected something like 4-3 or 3-2 and noted an alternative Royals team-total under could be paired if books allow. Official wager: Under 7.5 at –115.

Matt Perrault said the No-Run-First-Inning is still worth laying the juice in Royals-Giants. His logic: (1) Logan Webb owns a 0.64 ERA, .208 opponent average and just two earned runs allowed in 28.1 home innings, making a first-inning Giants run unlikely. (2) Kansas City has logged 12 straight Nerfies, including both games in this series. (3) San Francisco’s bats have been ice-cold on the homestand, scoring 3, 1, 3, 2 across the last four. Even without confirmation of the Royals’ opener, Perrault trusts the trend and Webb’s dominance at –138 to win one unit.

Chris Ruffolo closed with a +750 dart on Wilmer Flores to leave the yard. Flores is 7-for-14 lifetime versus Michael Lorenzen with three home runs. Ruffolo highlighted that eight of Lorenzen’s nine homers allowed this season have come on the road, and Tuesday’s start is again away from Kansas City. Combine Lorenzen’s road-splits vulnerability with Flores’s perfect BvP résumé, and Ruffolo believes the payout is worth a shot.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the Giants on the moneyline, banking on their league-best bullpen (2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP last 10 days) to cover any Hayden Birdsong uncertainty. Kansas City’s offense has cratered to a .594 OPS and 63 wRC+ vs righties over the last 10 days, and its bullpen has a 4.55 ERA in that span. Wilmer Flores already owns three homers in 14 career at-bats vs Michael Lorenzen and has 10 bombs on the year, providing a matchup edge. Even if Birdsong exits early, San Francisco’s relief depth plus KC’s anemic bats give the Giants the advantage.

Welsh labeled Carson Wisenhunt the clear "next guy up" in San Francisco. The left-hander’s 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the PCL are backed by 52 K and only 7 BB over 51 IP, thanks to a wipeout changeup and a newly sharpened sinker/slider mix. Most importantly, his walk rate has plummeted from 4–5 per nine last year to 1.24 in 2024. With only one southpaw (Robbie Ray) in the big-league rotation and Jordan Hicks shifting back to relief, Welsh expects Wisenhunt to get the first call if Hayden Birdsong falters or an injury hits. Deep leaguers should stash or at least flag him on watch lists for immediate pickup.

Boston advised taking San Francisco on the money line behind 22-year-old righty Hayden Birdsong in his first 2025 start. Birdsong posted a 2.11 ERA and 34% K-rate in multi-inning relief this year and throws a slider 42% of the time—bad news for a Kansas City lineup that grades 27th in run value versus sliders. Opposing starter Michael Lorenzen has allowed a .312 average and .507 slug to current Giant hitters across 71 plate appearances, and Boston pointed out Lorenzen’s swinging-strike rate has dipped below 8% for the first time since 2020. While conceding Birdsong could struggle with command, Boston still sees more paths to a Giants win, citing San Francisco’s superior OBP, a rested back-end bullpen, and Oracle Park’s marine layer keeping any Royals hard contact in the yard. He projected a 5-3 Giants victory and would play them down to ‑115.

Malcom Bamford is on the Giants at –135, arguing Michael Lorenzen’s home/road disparity is too large to ignore. Lorenzen owns a 0.99 ERA in Kauffman but a 5.35 mark everywhere else, and this trip puts him in Oracle Park against a San Francisco club that is 16-8 at home and just one game out of first. Bamford expects only 3–4 innings from Birdsong but trusts a Giants bullpen carrying a 2.51 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to cover the rest. Given the Giants’ elite relief corps and Lorenzen’s travel woes, Bamford views the short home price as a clear buy.

Malcom Bamford recommended grabbing San Francisco in the NL West futures market while books are still hanging ‘nice prices.’ He explained that a preseason “light-bulb moment” led him to bet the Giants to win both the division and the World Series because the roster is built for October: a deep swing-and-miss bullpen, an above-average defense and veteran hitters who grind counts. Bamford emphasized that with the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks beating up on each other, the race is likely to stay compact, so a ticket on the Giants gives bettors a live ‘puncher’s chance’ once the dog days of August arrive.

John Venezia said Justin Verlander should be scooped off waivers even as a back-end fantasy starter. The Giants right-hander owns a 4.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 40 strikeouts and 16 walks over 48 innings, but Venezia pointed out that Verlander has logged four quality starts in his last five turns. The big reason is a resurgent slider that carries a 32.7% whiff rate, its highest mark in the past three seasons. Because he is rostered in only 36% of Yahoo leagues, Venezia views Verlander as an under-owned veteran who can stabilize ratios while adding strikeout upside as the slider continues to miss bats.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid out a case for backing the Giants outright versus Kansas City. San Francisco’s lineup is crushing lefties lately (145 WRC+ and .880 OPS last 10 days), while the Royals have scuffled to a 73 WRC+ versus southpaws over that same span. In the bullpen comparison, KC carries a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 25.2 recent innings; SF’s relievers sport a 3.16 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the identical workload. Although Chris Bubich (5th-best ERA league-wide) and Robbie Ray (tied for MLB lead with six wins) both enter hot, the tout preferred the club with the hotter bats, sharper pen, and recent 4-1 run – landing on the Giants moneyline.

Perrault also grabbed the Giants moneyline at –118, banking on Robbie Ray to keep his personal and team winning streak alive. Ray owns a perfect 6-0 record and has been even better at home (2.32 ERA, .213 BAA). San Francisco has won every game he has started thanks to both his length and a bullpen that has protected leads. Facing a Royals lineup that has scored two runs or fewer in four of its last five, Perrault projects a 4-3 Giants victory and sees value at anything south of –120.

Just A Bet Outside said Robbie Ray’s strikeout prop deserves an over look against Kansas City. The Royals have only the 20th-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the past three weeks (21.1%), but Ray’s individual form is carrying the play: he has logged 8-plus punch-outs in four of his last six starts and owns a 26.4% season-long K-rate. The host noted that Ray’s stuff has ticked up after an early-season velo dip, generating the second-highest swinging-strike rate on Monday’s slate. Ray’s one bugaboo remains walks (12% BB%), yet the Royals rank bottom-10 in walk percentage against southpaws, reducing the risk of pitch-count blow-ups. With Oracle Park suppressing power and Kansas City posting just a .301 wOBA on the road, the tout expects Ray to work deep enough to clear most posted totals and even suggested a K-ladder for plus money.

JD Bets backed Logan Webb to clear his 5.5-strikeout prop against the Athletics. Webb has averaged 7.2 strikeouts per start this season and 7.8 over his last five, punching out at least six hitters in four of those outings. While Oakland ranks a respectable 11th in strikeout rate (8.17 per game), JD pointed out they still fanned six times in five innings versus Webb’s pitch-to-contact peers and nine against Minnesota last week—evidence their newfound discipline is shaky. Wind at Oracle Park will be blowing straight out at 13 mph in 59-degree air, a setup that often keeps Webb on the mound longer because runs are harder to come by. Pair that with his consistent six-inning workload and JD projects the right-hander to rack up 6–7 Ks, comfortably beating the 5.5 line.

Cash Out Sports Picks put the Giants on the money line largely because San Francisco can still trust its relievers while Oakland cannot. Over the past 10 days the Giants bullpen sports a stingy 3.31 ERA, but the Athletics relief unit has cratered to 8.70 and just surrendered 28 runs in two games, including a 19-run disaster. While Oakland’s lineup has been sneaky potent versus right-handers (125 wRC+ over the last week and a half), it runs straight into Logan Webb, a pitcher who has held the A’s in check his entire career and owns only one clunker in 2025. San Francisco’s offense carries a 102 wRC+ against lefties during that same window and should eventually crack J.P. Sears once the third-time-through penalty arrives. With late-inning leverage tilted sharply toward the home side, the tout is happy to ride the Giants even at chalky odds.

Scott Reichel happily laid the Giants –1.5 at +128, hanging his hat on Logan Webb’s video-game numbers at Oracle Park. Webb has surrendered exactly ONE earned run in 20.1 home innings this season—good for a microscopic 0.44 ERA—while fanning 22 and allowing zero homers thanks to a 62% ground-ball rate. Reichel respects JP Sears’ recent form (1.93 ERA last five) but pointed out the lefty averages only 5.1 innings, thrusting an A’s bullpen with a 5.18 May ERA into high-leverage spots. San Francisco’s offense is heating up as well, batting .270 and scoring 5.3 runs per game over the last 10. With Webb likely to work into the seventh and the Giants pen owning a 2.67 home ERA, Reichel projected a 5-2 win and called the plus-money run line “a gift.”

It's The Final Round suggested Heliot Ramos as a deeper-card play. Ramos is 2-for-6 (.333) with a homer off lefty JP Sears and has collected hits in six of his last eight outings. Given Sears’ pedestrian stuff, the tout thinks Ramos’ hit prop offers plus money upside.

Eric Lindquist expects Logan Webb to work deep and hit OVER 20.5 outs (seven full innings) against Oakland. Webb’s turbo-sinker generates a 59 % ground-ball rate, perfect for Oracle Park’s expansive gaps. The A’s lineup outside Jacob Wilson has the sixth-highest chase rate and limited left-hand power, meaning fewer stressful pitches for Webb. Lindquist’s model shows Webb crossing 21 outs 55 % of the time and would play the over at any plus price or down to –115.

Guy Boston recommended betting Jordan Hicks to allow more than 4.5 hits tonight. Hicks has surrendered at least five knocks in six of eight starts (5.75 average hits), and each time he has gone over he has given up six or more. The last time he faced Arizona (last season) he was tagged for six hits. Arizona’s projected order profiles well against his 32 % slider usage— every hitter grades positive against sliders on Boston’s dashboard— while Hicks’ sinker does little to neutralize them. Provided San Francisco lets him work a typical workload, Boston expects the D-backs to put at least five balls in play safely.

Metler fired on Wilmer Flores to hit a home run at +875 in a matinee at Oracle Park. The right-handed Flores faces southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who has already surrendered eight long balls this season—seven of them to right-handed hitters. Weather is ideal for offense (around 60 °F and sunny, no marine layer issues). Projection models price Flores closer to +525, giving what Metler calls a massive probability gap. He emphasized Rodriguez’s 2024 hard-contact issues and Oracle’s neutral wind conditions as further support.

Rockford grabbed Over 8 (-110) at Oracle, hammering the matchup of two struggling starters. Jordan Hicks has allowed at least two earned in seven straight outings and six of his eight starts have cleared this total. Eduardo Rodriguez is even worse on the road with a 7.00+ ERA and opponents batting .326. Six of his eight starts have gone over as well. Arizona’s bullpen sits bottom-10 and its offense averages 5.11 runs away from Chase Field. With nine-mph winds blowing out to center, Rockford projected 8.8 runs and expects both clubs to get into shaky bullpens early.

Lindquist spotlighted Heliot Ramos 2-plus-hits at +230 (FanDuel) as a niche prop worth attacking. Eduardo Rodriguez is allowing a .264 expected average and 18.2° average launch angle to right-handed hitters, a profile that could feed Ramos’ pull-heavy approach. With San Francisco thin, Ramos has been hitting in the top four spots, guaranteeing volume. Because multi-hit markets receive little action, books often post stale numbers; Lindquist believes the matchup and lineup spot make the +230 price roughly 40 points too long and prefers it to standard total-bases props.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Giants money line in Wednesday’s matinee. Starters Jordan Hicks (5.82 ERA) and Rodriguez (~7.00 ERA) have been shaky and average barely five innings, setting up a bullpen game that heavily favors San Francisco (MLB-best bullpen ERA) over Arizona (fifth worst). The Giants are also 13-6 in day games. With San Francisco’s relief corps and situational trends, he expects the home side to clinch the series.

Lonte Smith targeted the over 7.5 in Arizona-San Francisco. Brandon Pfaadt was shelled for six earned in his penultimate start and has allowed 18 hits over his last two, suggesting his ground-ball profile is slipping. Robbie Ray’s walk issues are improving, but he still owns only two scoreless outings in his last five and has tossed 7+ frames back-to-back—length that exposes him to a third-time-through penalty. Smith also reminded listeners that the Diamondbacks just ran a gauntlet of Dodgers, Mets and Phillies arms, inflating their poor offensive metrics. Against a more human Giants staff, he expects them to rebound, while San Francisco’s lineup gets cracks at a hittable Pfaadt. He projected both clubs landing in the 4–5 run range, comfortably clearing the number.

Malcolm Bamford laid the modest –110 with San Francisco, citing a pair of matchup trends he trusts more than the current pitcher form. First, the Diamondbacks are just 4-7 against left-handed pitching, and they see one tonight in Robbie Ray. Second, the Giants have mauled right-handed starters, going 22-8 straight-up in that split. Bamford acknowledged Brandon Pfaadt’s sharp bounce-back—six scoreless against the Dodgers—plus Ray allowing only five earned runs across his last four turns, but he views both offenses as capable of scraping a few runs. With Arizona’s lineup historically softer versus southpaws and San Francisco thriving when opponents open with a righty, he sees the market price as a discount on the better situational side and locked in the Giants moneyline before it creeps toward –120.

Heliot Ramos is 2-for-2 against Brandon Pfaadt and has a hit in 10 of 13 games overall. Even with the tiny sample, It's The Final Round thinks the combination of pristine BvP and current form justifies a modest wager on Ramos to record a hit.