Kenny G said Seattle is the side at –110 in Game 3, calling the price a gift for a club that owns clear edges on the mound, in the ‘pen and at the plate. He trusts Emerson Hancock’s recent form (3 ER over 6 IP vs. Houston and only one truly bad outing all year – the Yankees blow-up) more than MacKenzie Gore’s inconsistency. Washington’s relievers sit on a 6.22 ERA, second-worst in MLB, while Seattle’s bullpen sports a 3.42 mark that has lived inside the top-10 all season. Offensively the Nats profile as a bottom-third unit (15th in runs but 20th AVG / 21st OBP and sporadic outputs of 1, 2, 3 and 0 runs in four of their last six). Seattle ranks 10th in runs, 8th in OBP and 11th in SLG with Cal Raleigh scorching. The M’s are 14-11 at T-Mobile Park versus Washington’s 11-16 road record. With a stronger lineup, a lockdown bullpen and series-saving motivation after dropping Game 2, Kenny graded Seattle ML as the best way to attack the short slate.

Cash Out Sports Picks urged DFS players to build Seattle stacks around Julio Rodriguez when the Mariners face MacKenzie Gore in the second game of the series. He noted Seattle owns the league’s 11th-best OPS despite the pitcher-friendly backdrop of T-Mobile Park, and the total has gone over in 10 of their last 12 home games—evidence that park factors are being outweighed by the offense’s current form. Gore has already been singled out as a vulnerable matchup, and with Seattle’s lineup continuing to mash, Rodriguez sits in prime position to capitalize on elevated run-scoring expectations. The tout expects the posted total to be about a half-run too low and likes Mariners bats to outpace salary-based projections, making them a high-upside DFS core.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with the Mariners moneyline in Thursday’s finale. Seattle has won six straight versus NL opponents and sits first in the AL West. Emerson Hancock’s season ERA is an ugly 5.95, but the tout trusts Seattle’s powerful lineup led by Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh to give him support against MacKenzie Gore. Despite Washington’s Wednesday outburst, he sees the Mariners’ 11th-ranked OPS and bullpen depth wearing Gore down and believes the home side secures the series.

Kenny G leans to OVER 8 in Nationals-Mariners because both starters are huge question marks. Trevor Williams owns a 6.39 ERA with 3-5 earned runs allowed in five straight outings, and George Kirby brings a 12.27 ERA after getting torched by Houston in his first start off the IL. Washington’s bullpen is the second-worst unit in baseball, and even Seattle’s strong relief corps will likely cover half the game again. The Mariners have become an over team at T-Mobile Park (13-9-2), climbing to 10th in runs scored behind Cal Raleigh’s 17 homers. Kenny projects a 5-4 or 6-3 type of final and thinks eight runs is simply too low given the pitching matchup.

Bamford fired on the full-game over 8, citing two starters headed in opposite—but equally volatile—directions. Trevor Williams owns a 6.39 ERA and has surrendered at least three earned in every May outing, while George Kirby looked rusty in his season debut (five runs to Houston) and may need another turn to find his command. Seattle games versus right-handed pitching are 25-14-1 to the over, and the Mariners lineup has a .780 OPS at home this month. Bamford projected both pitchers exiting by the sixth, forcing two mediocre bullpens (Washington 4.57 ERA, Seattle 4.22 ERA last 14 days) to patch together nine outs. He hung a 9.1 expected run total, making any 8 or 8.5 a green-light play.

Bamford said he is ‘feeding Trevor Williams’ and singled out Cal Raleigh to go yard in the nightcap. Williams limps into Seattle with a 6.39 ERA, 1.71 HR/9 and at least one long ball allowed in six straight starts. Raleigh, who has 10 of his 12 bombs off right-handed pitching and a .587 SLG at T-Mobile Park, profiles perfectly against Williams’ 89-mph four-seamer. The switch-hitting catcher’s 45% pull rate and top-20 barrel percentage line up with a Nationals staff that ranks bottom-five in hard-hit suppression. With the marine layer expected to be thin Wednesday night and Seattle’s offense carrying a 111 wRC+ in May, Bamford likes any price of +375 or better on a Raleigh homer.

Eric Lindquist circled Rowdy Tellez as a home-run dart at anything better than +480 against Nationals right-hander Trevor Williams. Lindquist noted that Williams has been shelled by left-handed bats all season—six homers in just 130 lefty plate appearances, a 2.16 WHIP and no put-away pitch—while carrying a meek 17% strikeout rate overall. That lack of swing-and-miss plays directly into Tellez’s profile: the big first baseman owns a 517 expected slugging percentage and 50-plus percent hard-hit rate when he actually makes contact, but his 26.4% K rate usually drags the pricing down. With Seattle’s T-Mobile Park still offering a favorable right-field jet stream for power and Williams leaning on a straight four-seamer/change combo that flattens out versus lefties, Lindquist projected Tellez’s true HR odds closer to +390. He advised locking in the long-ball prop before books adjust and added that bettors uncomfortable with the all-or-nothing swing can ladder down to 2+ total bases at plus money as a secondary angle.

Kingpin Sports chose Mariners moneyline, forecasting a close contest between starters Mitchell Parker (4-3, 4.39) and Levi Evans (2-1, 3.33) but trusting Seattle’s superior bullpen to seal the deal at T-Mobile Park.

Peterson grabbed Seattle -1.5 at +145 when he made the run line -102. Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker has coughed up at least three runs in five straight starts (4.39 ERA, 4.1 BB/9), and Washington’s bullpen is a disaster with a 6.13 ERA (29th). Seattle starter Logan Evans owns a respectable 3.33 ERA, and even if his 4.93 FIP hints at regression, a ninth-ranked bullpen (3.43 ERA) provides cover. The pricing discrepancy on the alternate run line was simply too juicy for Peterson to pass.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Seattle, highlighting Mitchell Parker’s brutal May (1-2, 8.00 ERA, .292 BAA, 23 runs in 23 IP) against a Mariner lineup that owns the sixth-most homers (70) and a 117 wRC+ vs LHP the last 10 days. Logan Evans (3.27 ERA in May) offers a steadier hand, and Seattle’s lefty-heavy bullpen can neutralize Washington’s late threats. The Nationals’ relief group still totes a 6.13 ERA, giving the M’s an additional late-inning cushion.

Peterson laid -123 with Seattle. Luis Castillo owns a 3.20 ERA (3.52 FIP) and even with a career-low 7.0 K/9 still dwarfs rookie Colton Gordon, who has coughed up six runs in 9⅔ MLB innings. Seattle’s offense averages 5.1 runs per road game (6th overall), creating what Peterson valued at Mariners -143.

Kenny G gave a slight nod to Seattle at –126 because Luis Castillo continues to dominate while Houston counters with inexperienced lefty Colton Gordon (5.59 ERA through two big-league starts). Castillo sports a 3.20 ERA, blanked the White Sox over 7 IP last time out, and tossed 5 shutout frames against the Astros on May 8. The Mariners bullpen (3.38 ERA) is a strength, whereas Seattle’s main worry—a slumping offense now 21st in AVG—faces an Astros staff that will likely lean heavily on its elite pen (2.82 ERA, 2nd in MLB) after another short Gordon outing. Houston’s bats have been wildly inconsistent, posting 2-3-9-4-2-4 runs their past six. Kenny thinks Castillo’s track record against Houston plus Seattle’s road-warrior 16-11 record justify the price, though he stopped short of pinning it as a best bet.

Romanelli backed Seattle, pointing to Luis Castillo’s dominant career line against Houston’s current roster—nearly 30% K-rate, 1.6% walk rate, .222 xBA over 120+ PA. Castillo is in form, while rookie Colton Gordon carries a 5-plus ERA and faces a Mariners lineup that should capitalize on his command lapses. Even acknowledging the Astros’ strong home bats, Ron believes Castillo’s edge and Seattle’s bullpen tilt the matchup.

Lonte Smith prefers Seattle at +105 because Bryan Wu is simply in better current form than Framber Valdez. Wu has yielded one combined run over his last two outings (Padres and Yankees) and carries a 0.92 WHIP in that span. Smith acknowledged Wu took a foul ball off the leg earlier in the week but added that the club cleared him and he finished a side session with no discomfort. Valdez’s contact profile worries Smith—his hard-hit rate is up six percentage points from last year, and right-handed batters post a .341 OBP against him. If the Mariners’ bats land somewhere between last month’s hot stretch and this week’s lull, Smith believes plus money is too generous. He double-dipped with the full-game Under, expecting another 3-2 type of night.

Mark leans to Seattle at +102 behind Bryan Woo. He notes that 76% of the wagered handle has pushed the total down and public money is piling onto the Mariners, indicating widespread skepticism of Framber Valdez. Mark himself prefers Woo’s current form and likes catching plus money against an Astros squad he is comfortable fading right now, though he concedes Seattle’s road splits can be volatile. Still, with market support, a perceived edge on the mound, and an Astros lineup that has under-performed, the Mariners are his ‘correct side’ in Houston.

Jensen tagged Cal Raleigh to hit a home run at +320 as a three-star prop. Raleigh is scorching, slashing .324 with 3 doubles and 4 homers over his last ten games and remains on a historic power pace for a catcher. He has handled Framber Valdez well in prior matchups, batting .290 with two long balls in 31 career at-bats. Daikin Park’s Crawford Boxes offer a friendly target for Raleigh’s left-handed pop, and Valdez’s sinker occasionally leaks up to glove side against lefties. The odds and recent form make the swing worth a sprinkle.

Jensen recommended betting Bryan Woo Over 6.5 strikeouts at ‑120. Woo has punched out 55 hitters in 57.2 innings (almost one per inning) with elite command—just eight walks and a 0.87 WHIP. He fanned eight Astros over six innings in their last meeting, and Houston’s lineup, while disciplined, still whiffs at a league-average clip. Woo’s efficiency allows him to work deep—seven of his last eight outings have lasted six or more frames—giving him plenty of pitch count runway to clear the number.

Jensen labeled the Mariners moneyline at +100 a strong value play. Seattle puts its ace Bryan Woo (5-1, 2.65 ERA, 55 K, 8 BB across 57.2 IP) on the mound and owns a 16-10 road record plus a 7-3 run over its last ten games with a 2.40 team ERA. Houston counters with Framber Valdez (3-4, 3.57 ERA), whose losing record reflects shaky run support from an offense hitting just .248 across its last ten. Seattle’s bullpen is 3rd in ERA (2.78) and 2nd in WHIP (1.09), giving Woo the superior late-inning safety net. The Mariners already lead the season series 3-2, and Jensen believes the combination of better current form and a slight pitching edge makes the underdog price too good to pass up.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Seattle Mariners money-line. He said Emerson Hancock’s 2.91 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through four road starts give Seattle a clear pitching edge over Houston rookie Guston, who owns a 5.68 home ERA and is being used as a one-to-two-inning opener. Seattle also travels well (15-9 road record) and has won five of the last seven meetings with Houston. While Hancock’s overall ERA sits at 6.21, the tout emphasized that the damage has come almost exclusively at T-Mobile Park; on the road the right-hander has allowed only seven earned in 21.2 innings. With both clubs sporting identical 15-9 home/road splits, he trusts the hotter starter and the deeper Mariners bullpen to grind out another one-run win in this divisional rematch.

Donnie Rightside flagged Jorge Polanco as a plus-money RBI prop tonight. McCullers has surrendered a .235 ISO and .378 wOBA to left-handed hitters in just 45 batters, and Polanco comes in scorching with a .436 wOBA over the past month. With JP Crawford’s .371 wOBA setting the table ahead of him and Minute Maid’s Crawford Boxes in right field, Donnie expects Polanco to cash in at least once, making any number north of +120 worth a swing.

Donnie Rightside said to lay the ‑130 road price on Seattle because Lance McCullers looks like a ticking time-bomb against left-handed bats. McCullers has only faced 45 hitters this season but they have tagged him for a .397 wOBA overall and a .235 ISO / .378 wOBA specifically from the left side. Seattle can stack three dangerous lefties at the top – JP Crawford (.371 wOBA last 30 days), Jorge Polanco (.436) and Cal Raleigh (.377, plus big ISO). Even if the Minute Maid roof is closed, Rightside doubts McCullers’ health and command, while George Kirby’s return gives the M’s another plus arm. He wants the M’s straight-up and views Seattle RBI props as a bonus angle.

Peterson played Over 8.5 (handicapped 8.9). Seattle’s Emerson Hancock carries a 6.21 ERA with 1.9 HR/9 and 3.2 BB/9, while Houston’s Ryan Gusto owns a 4.65 ERA and 1.2 HR/9. The Mariners score 5.2 runs per road game, fourth-best in MLB. With two homer-prone starters and potent lineups, Peterson expects early fireworks and shaky bullpens to push the total past the posted number.

Dylan Rockford endorsed Seattle at the current ‑142 price and would play them to roughly ‑160. Rookie Logan Evans has allowed just one run in 11 road innings against stronger lineups (Padres, Rangers), while the Mariners have won four straight and hit better on the road than at T-Mobile. White Sox rookie Shane Smith is talented (2.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) but gets no support—Chicago is 1-7 in his decisions and ranks near the bottom in run production. Rockford trusts Seattle’s form, offense, and bullpen over nine full innings and prefers the full-game moneyline instead of first-five.

Michael Savio played Under 8 runs in Mariners–White Sox, citing a pair of breakout youngsters on the mound. Seattle’s Logan Evans is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA and has allowed just one run over his last 12 innings, including six scoreless frames versus a potent Padres lineup. While his 1.52 WHIP shows he doesn’t miss many bats, Evans has consistently stranded traffic. Chicago counters with 25-year-old Shane Smith, who owns a 2.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP overall and an even stingier 1.69 ERA through three May starts. Savio notes Seattle’s lineup has cooled considerably over the past few weeks, and although the White Sox bullpen is shaky, he doesn’t expect enough late offense to threaten the total. With both starters in form and two bottom-tier offenses involved, Savio projects a pitching duel that keeps the score under eight.

Peterson laid the -1.5 run line at +110 (model -101). He trusts Logan Evans’ 2.57 ERA and just two homers allowed in four starts, plus a Mariners lineup scoring 5.4 runs per road game (5th in MLB). Shane Smith’s shiny 2.05 ERA is propped up by a 3.16 FIP, three walks per nine, and seven unearned runs, signaling regression. Seattle’s superior sticks and pitching justify the alt spread.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Seattle on the money line largely due to Chicago’s starting pitcher Bryse Wilson. Wilson brings an 0-2 record, 6.00 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and .331 opponent average across four starts, surrendering three homers in his last outing. Seattle sits top-10 in MLB homers and owns a 13-7 record since April 26, allowing just one run in each of its last four games. While the Mariners’ starting pitcher was not announced at recording, the tout called the White Sox offense "fade-worthy" regardless, noting Chicago’s chronic lack of production and momentum. Seattle’s recent defensive excellence and clear matchup edge against Wilson made the Mariners the clear side.

Brad Francis played the Mariners -1.5 against the White Sox. Seattle has covered the run line in six of its last eight games, including every contest in a recent series at San Diego. Francis trusts the Mariners’ road bats and pitching depth to dominate a White Sox club he called “terrible” and overmatched.

Calling it a potential ‘lock of the day,’ Kenny g is ready to lay the −172 with Seattle once a starter is confirmed. The Mariners have won four straight, boast MLB’s best road record (13-8) and pair a 10th-ranked offense with a 3.49 bullpen ERA. Even if they opt for a bullpen game, Kenny trusts the staff’s depth against a White Sox lineup that is dead last in batting average (.217), 28th in runs and 29th in slugging. Chicago counters with Bryce Wilson, who surrendered 10 hits and 7 earned to Cincinnati his last time out and owns no decisions through three spot starts. The Sox bullpen (4.73 ERA) offers no safety net. With Seattle’s bats producing 5-6-4-5 runs their past four and the massive pitching gap on both the front and back ends, Kenny expects another comfortable Mariners victory and may elevate it to his official daily best bet once pitchers are locked in.

Even without knowing Seattle’s starter, Lonte Smith is already committed to backing the Mariners –1.5 and betting their team-total OVER against Bryce Wilson. Chicago has surrendered 6-plus runs in five straight, while Wilson sports a 6.00 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and is coming off a seven-earned blow-up. Smith highlighted that Seattle’s offense has traveled well all year—top-10 in road OPS—and just completed an emphatic sweep of San Diego before taking two from the Yankees. With the White Sox bullpen ranking bottom-three in both ERA and strand rate, he expects the M’s to score early and late, making the run line and a TT of 4.5 or lower automatic bets.

Kenny G called Seattle –205 a potential "lock of the day" despite the cross-country flight from San Diego. Luis Castillo has rounded into form—three gems in his last four outings, most recently six innings of one-run ball versus the Yankees—and now faces a White Sox lineup that sits dead last in batting average, 28th in runs, 29th in slugging and has produced 2-3-3-1-4 runs in its last five. Seattle’s offense, meanwhile, ranks 11th in both runs and OBP and just hung 6-4-5 on a solid Padres staff; Cal Raleigh already has 15 homers and the team carries a .326 OBP. The bullpen edge is real too: Mariners 3.48 ERA vs Chicago’s 4.62. Kenny is unconcerned about Davis Martin’s respectable 3.65 ERA because his blow-ups against Kansas City and Houston show how vulnerable he is to potent lineups. Seattle also boasts the best road record in MLB at 13-8. Kenny advised betting the moneyline even at heavy chalk and teased parlaying it with another favorite for reduced vig.

Cash Out Sports Picks liked Seattle on the money line, laying out a laundry list of mismatches. Right-hander Luis Castillo has surrendered only seven runs over his last three starts and just four in his last two road turns, holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in six of nine outings this season. Chicago counters with Chris Martin, who owns a 5-run allowance over his last two starts and a .292 opponent average plus three homers allowed in four games at Guaranteed Rate Field. Seattle already owns one of baseball’s best bullpens; the White Sox pen is sixth-worst by ERA. Offensively, the Mariners rank near the top of the AL against right-handed pitching while Chicago ranks near the bottom. Seattle swept San Diego over the weekend and took six of seven from the Sox last year, four of those wins coming by 3+ runs. With the worst club in the American League offering little home-dog value, he advised backing Seattle straight up.

Kenny G endorsed the Mariners at +120, arguing the market is underrating both Bryan Woo and Seattle’s revamped lineup. Woo owns a 2.84 ERA and is coming off 6.1 shutout innings against the Yankees, showing no road jitters (1.15 WHIP away from home). Seattle’s bats, once a liability, now rank 12th in runs and sit top-10 in both OBP and SLG, giving Woo credible support. By contrast San Diego’s offense has scored just two runs in the first two games of the series and has lost four of six overall. Michael King has been solid (2.32 ERA, ≤2 ER in five straight), but Kenny pointed to a Padres bullpen trending the wrong way (3.11 ERA after opening month below 2.80). Seattle’s pen is serviceable at 3.61. With the M’s 11-8 on the road and 12-7 to the over in those games—evidence their sticks travel—Kenny labeled the plus-money side the only playable angle on a volatile Sunday slate.

It's The Final Round highlighted Cal Raleigh’s 3-for-6 (.500) resume against Michael King and a 7-for-9 game hit streak, recommending the switch-hitting catcher for single-hit props or cheap DFS salary relief.

For the same matchup, Cash Out Sports Picks leaned OVER the total. Seattle has plated five-plus runs in three straight road games—including a 13-run eruption in Texas—and has hit the over in four of its last six away contests. Both clubs sit top-10 in slugging percentage, and the Mariners’ pitching staff owns a middling 3.87 ERA. Three of the last five meetings have gone over, including an 11-run game at Petco. Evans’ road struggles (6 ER, 11 hits in five innings) plus San Diego’s potent bats give this matchup blow-up potential, making the over the recommended play.

Lonte Smith said he will grab Seattle if bookmakers hang anything in the +140 to +160 range when numbers finally open. He admitted the M’s have been in a funk, plating fewer than four runs in five of their last six, but pointed to their 10-8 road record and .265 team average away from T-Mobile as proof the bats travel. Smith’s angle is mostly a fade of Padres rookie Bryson Evans, who drags a 6.60 ERA and 1.62 WHIP into the start and has been tagged for 4+ earned in three straight. Even with Seattle’s rotation ERA ballooning to 6.90 over the last 10 games, he expects enough positive regression to keep the game close and will sprinkle the full-game Over once the total appears, anticipating at least one crooked inning from each shaky bullpen.

Adam Rosenberg endorsed taking Luis Castillo under 17.5 recorded outs at +105 in Wednesday’s meeting with the Yankees. Castillo has cleared 18 outs just three times all season—and each came against anemic offenses (Detroit, Miami, and a slumping Texas club). In every other 2025 start he has been yanked before the sixth inning ends. Rosenberg highlighted several factors: the Bronx lineup’s MLB-best 125 wRC+ versus righties, Castillo’s own home struggles (0-for-4 on this outs prop at T-Mobile Park), and Seattle’s fresh bullpen—six relievers worked fewer than 25 pitches in Tuesday’s extra-inning loss and the club is off on Thursday, allowing Scott Servais to be aggressive with pen matchups. Even after throwing 94 pitches last time out, Castillo still fell short of this number, and Rosenberg expects New York to force an early hook again.

Bamford leaned to the over 8.5 with rookie Will Warren facing Luis Castillo. Warren’s starts are 5-2-1 to the over, and while he looked sharp versus Oakland, Bamford wants to see it again before trusting him. Castillo is coming off his worst outing of the year against Toronto and continues to walk hitters. The Yankees are 16-16 to the over overall, but Seattle games versus right-handers are an eye-popping 23-6 to the over. With Seattle on a five-game skid and both starters carrying shaky recent form, Bamford expects runs in T-Mobile Park.

In the same Yankees-Mariners clash, Kenny G also leaned toward Over 8. Castillo has allowed 5+ earned runs in two of his last five outings, and Warren could hit a rookie wall after tossing 101 pitches his last time out. Seattle home games are 13-7-2 to the Over, and New York road games sit at 10-8-2. The Yankees lead MLB in average, OBP and slugging, while Seattle sits top-10 in all three categories. Both bullpens have been good, not great, of late – New York’s relief ERA has crept up to 3.68 and Seattle’s has shown cracks as well – giving late-inning upside to an Over ticket. Kenny stopped short of calling it a “pinned comment play,” but he felt the total was at least a half-run too low given the underlying metrics.

Just A Bet Outside projected a higher-scoring game than the market implies in the Luis Castillo vs Will Warren matchup. Castillo has been noticeably less dominant this season, with diminished fastball life and only a 22% strikeout rate, while Warren brings an intriguing but erratic profile: 26% K-rate yet shaky command and a 4.35 expected ERA in limited MLB work. The tout noted that T-Mobile Park’s marine layer is less of a factor in daytime conditions, and both bullpens have been overworked in recent series. Given Castillo’s downturn and Warren’s volatility, the analyst recommended taking the full-game over (and even first-five over 4) expecting each side to put up early crooked numbers.

Dylan Rockford laid –104 on the Mariners and said his numbers make Seattle a –140 favorite. He wants no part of Yankees rookie Will Warren, noting an ERA north of 5.00, a .271 opponent batting average, and excessive hard-hit contact that should travel poorly on the road. Rockford trusts Luis Castillo’s long-standing home/road split—historically sharper at T-Mobile—and views the spot as a get-right game for both Castillo and a Mariners club skidding of late. While acknowledging New York’s recent double-digit outbursts and Aaron Judge’s heater, he still expects Seattle to tag Warren early and suggested a first-five play in addition to the full-game moneyline.

Kenny G backed Seattle at roughly ‑105, pointing out several edges over the visiting Yankees. Luis Castillo has been volatile, but Seattle’s bullpen (3.36 ERA) offers cover, while New York trots out rookie Will Warren on short rest after a career-high 7.1-inning effort versus Oakland – a classic let-down spot. The Mariners’ lineup is finally clicking, ranking 8th in OBP and 9th in slugging, and they’ve cashed 13 of 22 overs at T-Mobile Park thanks to consistent run support. Yankee bats are elite overall, yet their 10-8-2 road Over record hints at a park-boosted profile that may soften on the West Coast. Seattle is 12-10 at home, and Kenny thinks the market hasn’t fully accounted for fatigue in the Yankee pitching staff. He labeled Mariners moneyline his preferred side play for this matchup.

Donaldson laid four units on Seattle’s moneyline. His primary angle is fading Yankees spot-starter Will Warren, whom he labeled a "quadruple-A pitcher" only in the rotation because of injuries to Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, and Gerrit Cole. Rob expects the Mariners’ offense—already hot since the start of May—to pile up runs on Warren, while Seattle ace Luis Castillo should neutralize the red-hot Yankee bats. The combination of a lopsided pitching matchup and current team trajectories makes Seattle a plus-EV side in his model.

Brian Howard recommended taking the Mariners on the first-five moneyline behind Luis Castillo at roughly –105. Howard noted that the Yankees’ lineup boasts power but also the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball, a perfect matchup for Castillo’s change-up/slider combo that has generated a 29 % whiff rate this season. He framed the start as a "last audition" for Castillo, who may want to impress a Yankees front office expected to pursue pitching at the deadline. Because Seattle’s bullpen has been league-average while New York’s ranks top-three in ERA, Howard suggested a creative hedge: Mariners first five, Yankees full-game result—a combo that pays around 9-to-1. The core play, however, is Mariners F5 at near even money.

Guy Boston played Ben Williamson over 0.5 batter strikeouts at ‑145 on DraftKings. Williamson has fanned in seven of his last ten and 15 of 23 games this season (65%), averaging 0.96 K per contest with several multi-strikeout nights. He struck out once in last night’s 11-5 loss to New York and now faces the same pitching staff that owns an above-average strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. Even though Williamson is batting .244 and performs better versus lefties, his strikeout percentage remains elevated, giving Boston confidence that a single whiff will cash the ticket.

Guy Boston doubled down on yesterday’s Ben Williamson strikeout prop, adding pitch–type data to strengthen the case for the over 0.5 Ks. Williamson has fanned in seven of his last ten games and sports a 24.7% overall strikeout rate, cashing this number in 65% of appearances (15-of-23). Versus left-handers the K rate dips to 20.8%, but Boston pointed out that opponent Max Fried still sets up poorly for the rookie. Fried throws fastballs on 40% of his pitches and owns a 21.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. Williamson’s whiff rate against heaters is a whopping 40.9%, and he has a 100% K rate (two plate appearances) versus Fried’s curveball in limited samples. With overlapping 20-plus percent strikeout profiles on both sides and only one punch-out needed to cash, Boston labeled it “a pretty good matchup across the board” and fired on the over at ‑145 on DraftKings.

Mark Zinno doubled down on fading Max Fried and the Yankees but offered a more conservative approach than a straight moneyline play. He suggested hunting an alternate +1 run line on Seattle rather than paying the juiced +1.5 (currently around –160) or taking the full moneyline. Zinno noted Fried still carries an 8-0 team record, which he calls "the world’s ultimate sucker bet" at –140, implying oddsmakers are begging the public to back New York. He likes the spot for Seattle because the Yankees are coming off a high-scoring series in the tiny Sacramento (formerly Oakland) park and had to fly cross-country into the spacious confines of T-Mobile, a venue that historically suppresses offense. Seattle, meanwhile, was just swept at home by Toronto, which Zinno believes provides a buy-low opportunity as the market sours on them. Bettors who want protection against a one-run loss can lay the alternate +1 number at a more reasonable price than the standard +1.5.

Lindquist wants the Mariners at plus money on the first-five line in a Brian Woo vs. Max Fried showdown. Both starters sport sub-6% walk rates, but Seattle owns a 109 wRC+ against left-handers and has been particularly dangerous at T-Mobile Park. Fried has been brilliant, yet Lindquist trusts the M’s early bats—Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger, and Cal Raleigh— to scratch out a run or two before Atlanta’s bullpen takes over. With Woo’s command keeping traffic off the bases, Lindquist sees value in Seattle leading after five despite Fried’s reputation.

The same tout played OVER the total, noting both clubs’ three true outcome tendencies. Yankees lead MLB in homers and walks, while the Mariners rank first in walks and top-5 in homers despite a modest average. Seattle’s staff struggles with men on base, and New York strikeouts come with corresponding power. With questionable late-inning relief on the Mariners side and Yankee bats on a May heater, Cash Out Sports Projects a shoot-out.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game under despite backing New York to win. He noted that Emerson Hancock has strung together three straight quality starts and, if he avoids an early blow-up, can keep the game from turning into a shootout. More importantly, Seattle’s lineup has gone ice-cold, producing only seven runs in its weekend series with Toronto and ranking 23rd in wRC+, 26th in wOBA, and 28th in ISO over the last week. Because so much of the Mariners’ scoring usually comes from power, those basement-level ISO numbers are a red flag. With Clarke Schmidt in good form and the M’s bats sputtering, the tout sees a path to a lower-scoring contest that stays beneath the posted total.

Data Skrive projected a 6-5 Seattle win and assigned the Mariners a 57% victory probability, which translates to implied odds of roughly ‑133. Because the actual line sits at ‑124, bettors are getting a small edge on the moneyline. Seattle has cashed 62.5% of the time when favored this season (15-9) and an even better 66.7% mark (12-6) specifically when priced at ‑124 or shorter. The club is hot, winning six of its last eight games as a favorite while averaging 5.7 runs during that stretch. Toronto, meanwhile, is just 10-13 as an underdog and has dropped 60% of contests when priced at +104 or longer. With the Blue Jays’ pitching staff carrying a 5.15 ERA across the past 10 games, Data Skrive recommends laying the modest juice on Seattle.

Lonte Smith made Mariners team total Over 4.5 his favorite play on the Saturday slate. Toronto lefty Bowden Francis has imploded for 14 earned runs on 21 hits across his last 12 innings and has yet to complete the fifth frame in any start. Seattle’s offense, averaging 5.1 runs in May and top-five in hard-hit rate since J.P. Crawford returned, draws a perfect matchup in hitter-friendly T-Mobile with temperatures in the mid-70s. Smith pointed out that Francis’ heater averages just 91 mph and gets tagged for a .429 xBA, while the Mariners slug .511 against sub-92 fastballs. Whether Seattle starts Logan Gilbert or emergency arm Levi Evans, Smith expects the lineup to carry the game and played the team total up to 5.