Kenny G said he is fading Miles Mikolas and laying the –130 money-line with Tampa Bay. Mikolas is 6-9 with a 4.99 ERA and just walked five while striking out only one in his most recent outing against the Yankees. He has also been hit hard by Colorado and Los Angeles this month and owns a 14:12 K:BB in August. Kenny pointed out that the Cardinals offense has cratered—ranking 24th in runs and producing four or fewer in five of their last six—so Mikolas is unlikely to get much support. On the other side, Adrian Hauser is 6-4 with a 2.67 ERA since joining the Rays and is coming off a five-inning, six-strikeout shutout of the Giants. Tampa’s bullpen remains top-10, giving them a cushion even if Hauser only goes five. With the starting-pitching edge, a competent bullpen, and St. Louis’ bats still dormant, Kenny feels the small price on the Rays is worth paying and would consider the play strong enough to pin in the comments.

Just A Bet Outside said Sonny Gray is a strong over-5.5-strikeout play at ‑115. Gray has punched out at least five hitters in 11 straight outings and 17 of his last 20 starts overall. On the road he averages almost 6.5 Ks and has cleared this number in five of nine appearances. Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest strike-out rate versus right-handers the past three weeks (24.8 %) along with the league-worst OBP and third-lowest wRC+, making long innings unlikely. The outs prop is juiced over 17.5, hinting at six frames; Gray is 9-4 to the over 5.5 Ks when he reaches six innings. Recent righties (Schlittler 8 K, Webb 7 K, Verlander 8 K) all carved this lineup, so the tout is comfortable staking a half-unit on Gray’s strikeout prop.

Just A Bet Outside expects Sonny Gray to continue his strikeout roll against a Rays lineup that owns the fourth-highest K-rate versus righties over the past three weeks (24.8%). Gray enters with 22 strikeouts in his last 19 innings and has cleared seven Ks in three straight starts. Stephen added that Gray’s strikeout percentage actually improves on the road (28.3%) and spikes to nearly 29% against left-handed hitters, a profile that matches up well with Tampa Bay’s batting order construction. The over on Gray’s strikeout prop is a core play for Thursday.

Brad Pick Dawgz took the Cardinals money line with Sonny Gray on the hill. Joe Boyle starts for Tampa and Brad said the rookie’s command issues (12.8% BB-rate last three outings) make him fade-worthy. Even though Gray is coming off a rough appearance, Brad trusts the veteran’s track record of sub-3.50 ERAs and expects a classic rebound. He added that St. Louis looked "pretty damn good" in Miami earlier this week and should carry that momentum into Tropicana Field.

Kenny G prefers the St. Louis Cardinals at –120 in Tampa, arguing Sonny Gray is set up for a rebound after getting shelled by the Yankees. Gray had fired quality starts against the Cubs and Dodgers before that blow-up and now faces a Rays offense that has fallen to 14th in runs and 19th in OBP over the last two months. Joe Boyle, meanwhile, sports a 4.68 ERA and was tattooed by the Giants in his last outing. Kenny trusts the Cardinals’ bullpen (3.60 ERA in the second half) more than Tampa’s and noted the Rays are 35-25-3 to the under at home, suggesting run support for Boyle should be limited. With the mound edge and bullpen advantage squarely on St. Louis, Kenny expects Gray to pitch well enough for the Cardinals to cash as short road favorites.

Kenny G prefers the Cardinals at ‑120 over Tampa Bay. He expects Sonny Gray (11-6, 4.30 ERA) to rebound after getting shelled by the Yankees, noting Gray had been sharp in prior starts versus the Cubs and Dodgers. St. Louis’ bullpen sports a 3.60 ERA, giving Kenny further confidence, while Joe Boyle (1-2, 4.68 ERA) has been volatile and recently let the light-hitting Giants rough him up. The Rays’ lineup has cratered to 14th in runs and 19th in OBP after once being elite, and Tampa has hit the under in 35 of 63 home games. Kenny considered the under 8.5, but the stronger angle in his eyes is simply backing Gray and the steadier bullpen to secure the win for a Cards club still clinging to playoff hopes.

Kenny G said the plus-110 moneyline on St. Louis is worth firing because of Andre Pallante’s matchup history and the current form of both clubs. Pallante blanked Miami on July 28th (7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER) and now gets them again in what Kenny called a “huge bounce-back spot” after facing two tough opponents. He trusts the Cardinals’ bullpen, which has been lights-out all season, and likes that the offense just hung 15 runs across the first two games of the series. On the other side Sandy Alcantara carries a 6-11 record with a bloated 6.31 ERA, and while he spun six strong frames against Boston last time, Kenny noted the two disastrous outings that preceded it and pointed out Miami’s pen is nowhere near St. Louis’ level. The Marlins’ lineup ranks 19th in runs and 18th in OBP, so Kenny sees limited damage support for Alcantara. All that makes the Cardinals a value play to keep their wild-card push alive at plus money.

B Wade said Matthew Liberatore is a clear fade at 3.5 strikeouts against the Marlins. Liberatore has totaled only eight punch-outs over his last five starts and has not topped 13 outs in any of them, getting yanked after four innings even when allowing just four hits. The Marlins now own the sixth-best strikeout rate in MLB (fewer than eight Ks per game) and flashed that discipline with only three strikeouts two games ago and 15 across a recent three-game set. Wade noted Sunday’s eight-K blip came versus Garrett Crochet—‘and Liberatore is not Garrett Crochet.’ With what he called obvious late-season dead-arm and Miami’s contact profile, Wade hammered the under at 3.5 Ks to anchor Monday parlays.

Kenny G said St. Louis is an appealing underdog at +122 because Sonny Gray has rediscovered ace form (14 straight quality innings, one earned run) while Max Freed’s recent slump has the Yankees 1-4 in his last five. New York is dragging a 4.25 bullpen ERA and a lineup that has scored 4-1-9-6-1-5 in its last six, despite ranking fourth in runs overall. The Cardinals’ bullpen is far steadier at 3.60, and they boast a 35-27 home record versus the Yankees’ 27-32 road mark. With Gray rolling, Freed leaking, and St. Louis relief trusted more than New York’s, Kenny believes the +122 price is too generous to pass up.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed St. Louis on the moneyline. New York has dropped eight of its last 12 overall and six of its last seven on the road, while the Cards have taken seven of nine head-to-head and five of the last six meetings at Busch. Yankee spot starter Lewis Gill has allowed 11 hits and seven earned across just 8.2 IP (7.27 ERA, 1.85 WHIP) and New York is still scrambling around multiple injuries at the plate and on the mound despite Aaron Judge returning with only one homer in eight August games. Andre Palanti was shelled last time out but surrendered just two runs over the 12 innings preceding that start. Add in the Cardinals’ healthier lineup and recent series dominance and the tout labeled St. Louis the play.

Kenny G said this is “a pretty good spot to back the Cardinals” and laid out a clear case for taking St. Louis on the -1.5 run line instead of swallowing the hefty -210 money-line juice. His reasoning: • Pitching mismatch – Austin Gomber is 0-6 with a 6.52 ERA and was torched for 11 hits and 5 ER by these same Cards on July 21; meanwhile, St. Louis rookie Gordon McGreevy sits at 4-2 with a 4.40 ERA and is coming off 6 scoreless innings against the Cubs. • Bullpen edge – Rockies pen owns a gruesome 5.50 ERA (one of MLB’s worst) while the Cardinals relief corps has trimmed its mark to 3.60 after an ugly April. • Home/road split – Colorado is a league-worst 14-45 on the road and 34-24-1 to the under away from Coors; St. Louis is 34-25 at Busch Stadium. • Offense – Colorado ranks 29th in runs and dead last in OBP; St. Louis’ bats have cooled but still sit 15th in runs and face a hittable lefty they hammered earlier. With the Rockies possibly feeling a let-down after a rare win and the Cardinals needing every game for postseason hopes, Kenny expects St. Louis to win by multiple runs and mentioned it could become his “lock of the day” if the price holds.

Kenny G likes a two-pack in St. Louis: Cardinals -205 and the game over 8.5. Colorado trots out Kyle Freeland (2-12, 5.53 ERA) plus the league’s second-worst bullpen and an offense that sits 28th in runs and dead last in OBP. The Rockies are an MLB-worst 14-45 on the road. Freeland’s last start produced 6 ER in 4.2 IP, and Kenny expects a similar meltdown. Matthew Liberatore (3.98 ERA) has been solid in four of his last five and is backed by a bullpen that has improved to a 3.60 ERA. Despite St. Louis’ recent scoring funk, Kenny believes Busch Stadium is the right spot for the lineup to “pop off,” projecting enough runs to clear 8.5 while trusting the 34-25 home record to secure the steep moneyline.

Eric Lindquist bet the over 8.5 runs in Rockies-Cardinals because he expects both soft-tossing lefties to turn this into a launch-angle festival. He noted Matthew Liberatore’s ground-ball rate has cratered to 42.8 % while his average launch angle has climbed to 10.9°, a combination Lindquist thinks will bite him in muggy, hitter-friendly conditions. Kyle Freeland is hardly better, and neither pitcher owns league-average strikeout stuff, so Lindquist projects constant traffic and early bullpen usage on both sides. He likes Colorado’s offense since moving Ryan Freeman to leadoff and sees a still-dangerous Cardinals lineup with Lars Nootbaar back and Mason Winn likely hitting first. All told, he expects double-digit runs and locked in the over before it moves off 8.5.

It’s The Final Round targeted Ivan Herrera for Monday because the Rockies are calling up Chase Dahlinder, a right-hander who coughed up a .429 average in July before being demoted and then surrendered .319, .356 and .306 in three shaky minor-league starts. Dahlinder has no real platoon edge (.273 allowed to LHH, .275 to RHH), and the thin Colorado bullpen leans left, a plus for Herrera. The St. Louis catcher is slashing .279 versus righties, even better versus lefties, and owns a .295 average at Busch Stadium. Recent numbers look modest (.250 last week) only because St. Louis just faced the Cubs and Dodgers rotations. Outlier pegs him at 77 % for a hit, 48 % for 2+ total bases and 62 % for 2+ hits-runs-RBI. Jordan called Herrera the “best of both worlds” among Cardinals bats and prefers the hits or hits-runs-RBI props against a pitcher who figures to put several runners on early.

Eric Pathi said the only side worth betting Wednesday is the St. Louis Cardinals around +170 against the Dodgers. Pathi pointed out that Los Angeles is 58-38 when listed as a favorite yet a flat-unit bettor is down roughly 10 units because of the heavy juice attached to every win. Overall—counting the Dodgers’ 7-8 record as a dog—you would be down money in every 2025 LA game despite the club sitting 20 games over .500. By contrast, St. Louis is 26-29 as an underdog but still "printing money" thanks to plus prices. Pathi views the matchup as another classic value scenario: avoid laying –208 on a team that historically costs bettors cash and grab the Cardinals, who have been a positive-EV play whenever oddsmakers hang dog odds. He framed it as the same underdog-heavy approach that has his service up 27-23 and +14.9 units since the All-Star break.

Just A Bet Outside played the Cardinals’ team total under 5.5 with Tyler Glasnow on the bump. Aside from one walk-filled hiccup, Glasnow has allowed only nine hits and two earned over 18 innings (23 K) since coming off the IL. St. Louis has scored five or fewer in 7 of its last 10 overall and sits under this number in 9 of its last 10 road games versus right-handed starters, averaging 2.6 runs in that span. Expecting a 6–7 inning bounce-back from a motivated Glasnow, the tout sees little chance the Cards crack six runs.

Just A Bet Outside said Sonny Gray is the only arm on Monday’s slate with a truly plus strikeout profile. The Dodgers own the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (27.9%), and Gray’s skills align well: 133 strikeouts in 121.1 IP, a 27.5% K-rate on the road, and a 28.0% K-rate versus left-handed hitters. Even during his recent rough patch (three shaky outings), he still logged 15 punch-outs in just 13.1 innings. The host flagged this as the lone matchup worth considering for an over on K props or as a ceiling play in DFS pitching pools.

Eric Patti said bettors should grab the St. Louis Cardinals at a +120 underdog price against the San Diego Padres on August 1. Patti pointed out that while San Diego rolls in on a five-game winning streak and a 60-49 overall mark, they have burned bankrolls whenever they are favored, posting a 31-23 record as chalk that produces a net loss. He compared that to their surprising profitability when listed as dogs (25-26) and highlighted that St. Louis has held its own in the same role, going 25-24 as underdogs. Patti added that the Padres’ momentum could stall after the travel-day break, making the Cardinals the clear value side for money-line bettors.

Martin added St. Louis to his short list of contenders ready to unravel. The Cardinals hover only a few games over .500 and, in Drew’s view, "might not even make the playoffs." With little pitching depth and an aging core, he plans to seek shorting opportunities—particularly on the road or whenever the Cards are slotted as favorites—anticipating books will be slow to adjust as the club fades from contention.

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting against Sonny Gray in Tuesday’s matchup with Miami. Gray has imploded for 14 earned runs on 22 hits across his last 8.1 innings, and opponents have barreled him up 11 times during that mini-stretch. Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara is showing faint signs of life, blanking the Padres over six frames in his most recent start. Steven pointed out that St. Louis injuries have thinned the lineup, whereas Miami’s contact-heavy approach should keep pressure on Gray, whose four-seamer has lost nearly a full tick of velocity since June. He prefers the Marlins money-line and would sprinkle their first-five as well, expecting Gray’s current 46% hard-hit rate to remain problematic in a humid Busch Stadium environment that projects as a slight hitter’s park Tuesday night.

Guy Boston Sports wants to run back yesterday’s Cardinals–Marlins first-five UNDER, this time with Sonny Gray versus Sandy Alcantara. Yes, Gray has been ‘dinged up’ lately, but the tout likes the matchup: Miami’s lineup owns negative run values against sinkers, sliders, four-seamers and curves—the exact four-pitch mix Gray deploys. Alcantara just blanked San Diego over seven innings and his sinker/fastball combo can mute a St. Louis roster that struggles against velocity lower in the zone. Neither bullpen was taxed (Palante went seven for STL, Miami used only one reliever), so a full-game UNDER is viable, but he prefers F5 U 3 at even money or better, betting on both veterans to keep the early scoreboard quiet.

Eric Lindquist said Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases is his favorite prop in the Cardinals-Padres matchup. Lindquist pointed to Nick Pavetta’s 11.4 % barrel rate and long-running tendency to cough up loud contact once the weather turns hot. Pavetta’s four-seam/curveball mix has allowed a .500-plus expected slugging to left-handers since June, and Friday’s muggy St. Louis forecast should help the ball carry. Burleson owns a .481 expected slugging percentage and a 17.6-degree average launch angle—highest among Cardinal lefties—so Lindquist expects at least a double or a pair of singles to clear the 1.5-base line.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases Friday against Nick Pivetta. St. Louis finally has mid-summer weather – high 90s, humid, with a light breeze out – which historically turns Busch into a sneaky hitter’s park. Pivetta’s early-season whiff surge has evaporated; his barrel rate is up to 11.4% and his average exit velo allowed sits at 91 mph. Lefties in particular have mauled him for a .520 xSLG. Burleson leads all Cardinal lefties with a 17.6° average launch angle and a .481 expected slug, giving him the ideal batted-ball profile to punish Pivetta’s four-seam/curve mix. Lindquist trusts Burleson “more than anyone at these prices” and expects at least a double or multiple singles, making the 1.5 total-base prop plus-EV at anything better than +110.

Cash Out Sports Picks preferred St. Louis on the moneyline. Yu Darvish has appeared in only three games, yielding nine runs and seven walks in 13.1 innings, indicating command problems that could be exposed by a Cardinals lineup batting .263 at home and averaging 4.75 runs in Busch Stadium. St. Louis sticks with Sonny Gray, 9-4 with a 4.04 ERA, who historically rebounds after poor outings and has limited Padres hitters to a .150 average over 40 at-bats. The Padres sit 20th in batting average since the break, and with bullpens essentially even, he trusts Gray and the Cardinals much more than Darvish and a cold San Diego lineup.

Lindquist believes the market is shorting St. Louis despite a clear starting-pitching edge. Sonny Gray paces the five-game slate in xFIP and strikeout rate, while Yu Darvish owns a 254 xBA, 370 xSLG, an inflated 11.5 % walk rate, and—most concerning—a 13.5 % K-rate well below career norms. San Diego’s strong bullpen keeps him from making it an official play yet, but with only five games on the board he expects Cardinals ML to be upgraded if the price does not correct.

Bill Harrelson’s favorite play is Nolan Arenado under 0.5 RBI (no RBI) at Coors Field. Arenado has failed to drive in a run in nine of his last 10 games and 16 of his last 20 (80%). He is 5-for-7 to the under in recent meetings with Colorado and went scoreless despite St. Louis plating six runs in game one of the series. The larger sample remains steady: 57-of-88 under this season (65%) and 99-of-152 last year (65%), giving roughly a 240-game track record at that same clip. Arenado is hitless in the RBI column for eight consecutive road games, bats worse versus right-handers, and Tuesday’s opposing pitcher owns above-average numbers against righty bats. Underdog is the only book offering the prop, and Harrelson views it as a strong correlated play alongside his Garrett Hampson under.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Garrett Hampson for fewer than 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs against Colorado. Underdog is the only book hanging a line, highlighting limited market appetite on the over. Hampson has finished under this total in 16 of his last 20 games and three straight versus the Rockies, including a goose-egg in game one of the current series. For the 2025 season he is 24-of-31 to the under (77%), mirroring last year’s 74% hit rate over 93 games. Even in games where he receives four or five plate appearances he’s stayed under, suggesting volume alone does not push him past the prop. The matchup is neutral at the surface—Hampson hits right-handers better, but Tuesday’s Rockies starter has reverse splits and suppresses righty production, making the under even more attractive.

Kenny G laid the –148 with St. Louis, arguing the price is justified against a Rockies squad that is an MLB-worst 12-37 at home and 0-5 in Austin Gomber’s last five starts. Michael McGreevy’s small-sample 4.22 ERA comes with encouraging outings versus the White Sox and Mets, and he now faces a Colorado lineup sitting 27th in runs and dead-last in OBP. The Cardinals bullpen has quietly surged to a 3.70 ERA, giving them a late-inning edge over a Rockies relief unit that remains bottom-four. Even though totals at Coors inflate side prices, Kenny sees enough mismatch to back the Redbirds to halt their three-game skid.

It’s The Final Round highlighted Masyn Winn as a sneaky value for single, total-bases or even long-shot HR props at Coors. Rockies lefty Austin Gomber is bleeding contact: .317 AVG to right-handers, .333 in July, and a massive .369 in Denver. Winn, a right-handed hitter, is slashing .303 against southpaws over the last 30 days and has come out of the break scorching with two straight multi-hit games (5-for-10 overall). He’s already 3-for-5 lifetime off Gomber with two doubles and a triple—all extra-base knocks. The show’s park-factor model assigns a 30-40 percent probability of an extra-base hit at altitude, with a non-zero long-ball chance despite Winn’s modest seven homers on the year. Jordan advised the safest play is a simple hit prop, but likes laddering up to total bases or a sprinkle on a double/triple; a HR ticket is purely a juicy odds kicker.

Matt Perrault recommended laying –130 (1.3 units) on the Cardinals to beat the Rockies. Colorado southpaw Austin Gomber sports a 7.36 ERA at Coors and the Rockies have dropped his last five starts by multiple runs (14-8, 3-1, 5-3, 9-3, 4-2). Rookie Michael McGreevy has only five road innings but a 1.80 ERA in that tiny sample and enters 1-1 with a 4.22 overall ERA. Although St. Louis is just 22-29 on the road, Colorado’s 12-37 home mark and Gomber’s skid give the Cards a clear edge; Perrault opts for the safer moneyline over the run line.

Brad Francis went right back to the Cardinals money line after Friday’s miss, citing Atlanta’s travel woes. The Braves have dropped four straight games immediately after a win and have been "miserable" on the road all season in Francis’ words. Even though Atlanta jumped out early Friday, St. Louis still profiles as the sharper side given the Braves’ recurring post-win slump and poor away record. Francis believes the situational trends outweigh Friday’s box score and likes the Cardinals to cash as home dogs.

Cash Out Sports Picks rode St. Louis despite Miles Mikolas’ recent struggles. The logic: Washington has dropped four of five overall and 10 of 14 on the road, and the Cards own the matchup—eight wins in their last nine against NL East foes and a prior sweep of the Nats in May. Nationals starter Michael Soroka was bombed for nine runs his last time out and Washington has lost each of his past five starts. Even with Mikolas giving up 14 runs in his last two games, the tout trusts St. Louis’ momentum and the Nats’ shaky form.

Dylan Rockford grabbed the Cardinals at –110, saying the market is still hanging a Nats-friendly line it cannot justify. He power-rated St. Louis –125 even with MacKenzie Gore on the mound because Washington is spiraling off the field—firing both GM and manager less than a week before the draft and openly shopping the franchise—and on the field, losing each of Gore’s last three road starts. Rockford credited Gore for solid underlying stuff but expects him to exit after 90-ish pitches, forcing a bullpen that owns the NL’s worst ERA since June 1 (5.46) to cover the final three innings. The Cardinals quietly hit .265 at Busch this season and profile well against Washington’s relievers, ranking top-10 in hard-hit rate over the past two weeks. Rockford is comfortable playing St. Louis down to –120 and expects late offense to tilt a tight game in the Redbirds’ favor.

The host grabbed St. Louis at –110 in a pick-’em and explained the edge. MacKenzie Gore’s career line against the Cards is brutal—29 hits and 20 earned runs in only 21 innings (8.57 ERA). Even in Gore’s breakout 2024 campaign St. Louis tagged him for four earned in five innings on May 11th, and Willson Contreras plus Masyn Winn are a combined 11-for-21 off him. Andre Pallante counters for the Cardinals and is uniquely suited for Washington’s left-heavy order, holding lefties to a .214 average overall and a .195 average/.286 slugging at Busch Stadium thanks to a sinker/slider mix that bores in on southpaws. St. Louis owns a 27-17 home record while Washington is 19-26 on the road, and the bullpen matchup tilts heavily toward the Cards—Washington ranks bottom-five in reliever ERA. With home-field, bullpen and matchup advantages, Just A Bet Outside made the Cards moneyline a half-unit play.

Malcom Bamford targeted Masyn Winn’s anytime-homer market, noting that Nationals starter Jake Irvin has already served up 20 long balls, the fourth-highest total in the league. Bamford’s logic is simple: if Irvin is going to keep coughing up gophers, pick a Cardinal with emerging pop at a juicy price. Winn fits the mold—he owns a 42% hard-hit rate since June 1 and is barreling the ball at a top-three clip on the club over the past three weeks. With warm midsummer conditions in St. Louis and the Cardinals projected for a healthy 4.8 implied runs, Bamford thinks Winn’s HR prop (anywhere from +650 to +750 in early markets) is worth a sprinkle.

Malcom Bamford skipped the full-game total and isolated St. Louis’ team total over instead. He highlighted that totals in Jake Irvin’s four most recent outings have reached 18, 24, 24 and 10 thanks largely to Washington’s starter being battered early. The Cardinals swept the Nats in May by a 20-3 margin and now get Irvin on the road, where he has yielded 4+ earned in three of his last four. While Bamford concedes St. Louis’ bats cooled on their nine-game trip, he expects a bounce-back in their first game back at hitter-friendly Busch. Washington is surrendering 2.5 runs per game offensively across their last ten, so Bamford prefers targeting the Redbirds’ offense rather than trusting the Nats to help an over. He projects 5-6 St. Louis runs and played the Cards’ team-total over at anything 4.5 or lower.

Ron Pick Dawgz is comfortable laying both money-line and run-line with St. Louis. Andre Palante has allowed two or fewer runs in four of five starts, sporting strong ground-ball rates and solid control—an ideal profile versus a Nationals lineup that leads MLB in ground-ball percentage. Conversely, Jake Irvin owns an ERA near six on the road, ugly expected stats, and the current Cardinal hitters carry a .550+ xSLG against him. Ron called it a “pretty big pitching advantage,” making St. Louis the bet.

Eric Lindquist advised bettors to attack the Cardinals –1 alt-run-line at –130 on DraftKings because he views Tuesday’s matchup as a lopsided pitching duel. Lindquist called Jake Irvin “a mirage” whose peripherals have cratered: a 5.34 expected ERA, .525 expected slugging, and 47.9 % hard-hit rate. By contrast, Sonny Gray gives St. Louis a massive edge and should keep Washington’s contact-oriented lineup in check. Lindquist noted the Cardinals’ bats rarely miss hittable pitches and expects them to capitalize on Irvin’s elevated barrel profile, making a one-run victory the floor. He explained the proper split-stake approach (moneyline plus –1 run slider) but prefers the pre-built –1 market for simplicity.

Lonte Smith said to back the Cardinals money-line Saturday because Matthew Liberatore has quietly reeled off four straight wins, each of them quality starts. One of those came two weeks ago at Busch, when he limited Chicago to 2 ER over 7.0 IP, so he already owns a fresh look at this lineup. Smith thinks that edge is magnified at Wrigley because the Cubs will likely counter with recalled rookie Jordan Wicks after Jameson Taillon landed on the IL. Wicks allows hard contact and the wind is forecast to be blowing out. With St. Louis’ offense finally healthy and Paul Goldschmidt heating up, Smith expects the Cards to jump on the inexperienced lefty and give Liberatore enough cushion to extend the streak.

He grabbed the Cardinals moneyline, citing Matthew Liberatore’s recent form and Chicago’s sudden drop-off versus left-handed pitching. Liberatore has been stretched out and is expected to deliver multiple clean frames before handing things to a rested bullpen. On the other side, Drew Pomeranz faces a St. Louis lineup that ranks 12th in OPS (.742) with runners in scoring position and features hot bats such as Ivan Herrera and Willson Contreras. Facing the same opponent twice in short order can be tricky, but the tout believes Liberatore has the arsenal to exploit Chicago’s current weakness against southpaws.

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting Sonny Gray’s strikeout over when he lines up against Pittsburgh. The Pirates have struck out at the 9th-highest clip versus right-handers over the past three weeks (23.1%). Gray has 101 Ks in 93.2 innings on the season and is fresh off a complete-game 11-strikeout masterpiece against Cleveland. His punch-out rate actually climbs on the road (28.7%) and spikes against left-handed bats (29.6%). Gray has already faced Pittsburgh twice this year and logged a strikeout per inning (12 Ks in 12 IP). With that profile, Stephen expects 7-plus strikeouts on Wednesday and likes anything at 6.5 or lower in betting markets while viewing Gray as a high-floor/high-ceiling DFS arm.

Rockford laid the -135 with St. Louis, pricing the game at -140. Sonny Gray is coming off a one-hit complete-game shutout of Cleveland and owns a 2.98 xERA overall. Mitch Keller’s last two outings—both quality starts—came versus the punch-less Mets and struggling Rangers, a context Dylan treats as fool’s gold. The Pirates bats have heated up, but Gray’s 31% strikeout rate and plus slider are a tough matchup, and the Cardinals lineup is top-10 in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month. Rockford trusts the better pitcher and hotter offense to grab the series finale.

Eric Lindquist played the OVER 8 runs at –105 in St. Louis-Pittsburgh, arguing both starters are more name than numbers right now. He noted Mitch Keller’s 273 expected batting average, pedestrian 18.5 % strike-out rate and only 45.7 % ground-ball share as clear regression flags, especially in warm hitting weather again at PNC Park. On the flip side Sonny Gray’s ground-ball rate has dipped to 39 % and the Cardinals plan to stack left-handed power (Burleson, Donovan, Nolan Gorman) against comeback-Keller. Pittsburgh’s lineup is suddenly competent with Nick Gonzales, Tommy Pham and Ke’Bryan Hayes all swinging well, so Lindquist expects traffic from both sides and said 8 should disappear quickly once markets react.

The tout highlighted Lars Nootbaar’s 6-for-17 (.353) career line with a homer against Mitch Keller. Nootbaar has a hit in seven of his last ten games, so backing him for 1+ hit against a pitcher he has handled well makes sense for single-game props or parlays.

Kenny G said the value sits with St. Louis at +140 and laid out a pretty thorough case. Andre Pallante is coming off a solid five-inning, two-run outing against the Cubs and the Cards’ bullpen has quietly trimmed its ERA to 3.71. Offensively they remain a top-six unit in runs, OBP and batting average (.255), so getting no-hit for six frames Monday feels like an outlier. On the other side, Paul Skenes owns a shiny 2.12 ERA but showed cracks: four earned in four innings versus Milwaukee last start and five earned over six frames when he faced these same Cardinals on April 8. Pittsburgh’s relief corps (3.72 ERA) is still hard to trust and the Pirates’ recent scoring binge (7, 12, 9, 9 runs) clashes with season-long reality—27th in runs, 29th in slugging. Kenny expects that hot streak to fizzle and does not want to lay ‑165 on a team he projects to regress, making Cardinals moneyline his preferred bet.

Lonte Smith called the Cardinals a "best bet" at roughly +140, arguing the number ignores multiple trends working against Paul Skenes and the Pirates. St. Louis has taken seven of the last ten meetings with Pittsburgh and is 7-3 overall in its past ten games, averaging seven runs in those victories (49 runs total). Skenes is 0-2 versus the Cards this season with seven earned over 12 innings, while Pittsburgh’s lineup owns a sub-.220 batting average and just 3.0 runs per nine at PNC Park. Andre Pallante has allowed three or fewer earned in four straight, giving the road club a serviceable arm behind a hot offense. Smith believes the market continues to tack on an unsustainable “Skenes tax,” making consistent fades of the rookie ace profitable, and he is willing to lock St. Louis in as a money-line play.

Bamford is fading the Paul Skenes tax again and taking St. Louis around +140. He noted that Pittsburgh swept the Mets over the weekend yet still struggles to score behind their rookie ace, as seen when they lost Skenes’ duel with Milwaukee despite Skenes allowing only soft contact. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 7-3 in their last 10 with a current three-game win streak, and starter Andre Pallante’s command has sharpened over his past few outings. Bamford’s macro angle is that the market continues to overprice the Pirates every time Skenes pitches; blindly backing the underdog in those spots has already produced a profit, and he expects that trend to continue here.

Eric Pathi said the only betting value in Monday's matchup is on St. Louis at roughly +145 because Pittsburgh has swung from a bottom-of-the-division underdog to a hefty ‑175 favorite after four straight wins. His long-time system automatically fades teams that suddenly become big favorites off a winning streak, arguing the price—not the roster—creates the edge. Even with Paul Skenes facing Andre Pallante, Pathi views Pittsburgh as an "over-priced favorite laying 75 cents" and insists bettors should attack the line, not the logo. If the Pirates had remained plus-money he would have backed them, but with the market flip he recommends taking the Cardinals as the live dog.

The Bettor Mark leaned to St. Louis –124 at Pittsburgh, pointing out that the Cardinals have won 3-of-5 and plated 21 runs during a weekend sweep in Cleveland, while the Pirates’ recent 30-run eruption versus the Mets came in hitter-friendly Citi conditions unlikely to repeat at humidity-heavy PNC Park with potential rain. He still respects the Pirates’ offense enough to consider the full-game OVER 8.5 but prefers backing the hotter lineup and stronger bullpen at a modest road favorite tag.

Jay Yang advised betting the Cardinals at -125 on the money line. He highlighted a clear starting-pitching edge: Andrew Heaney has been tagged for seven runs in consecutive outings and owns a 4.86 FIP that is worse than his 4.48 ERA, suggesting he has been propped up by luck and defense. Erick Fedde’s ERA sits at 4.11, but his 3.90 FIP indicates he has actually pitched better than the raw numbers show and should rebound against a Pirate offense that struggles versus right-handed pitching. Yang added that St. Louis brings the stronger lineup overall and is riding a modest winning streak, making the short price attractive as long as both listed pitchers start.

Kenny G said bettors should back St. Louis at -125 in the series finale in Cleveland. He pointed to Matthew Liberatore’s recent surge—seven innings of two-run ball against the Cubs last time out and a 3.96 ERA on the season—and a Cardinals bullpen that has trimmed its ERA to 3.79. Offensively, the Redbirds sit 8th in MLB in runs and have plated 14 in the first two games of this series. Cleveland, meanwhile, has dropped three straight, will rely on Logan Allen and his 4.25 ERA (eight hits, four runs to Toronto in his last start) and owns a bottom-five lineup that could be without a banged-up Jose Ramirez. The Guardians bullpen (3.94 ERA) is actually worse than St. Louis’. Given those edges, Kenny believes the Cards are still cheap at -125 even with the sweep angle working against them.