Kenny G leaned to Tampa Bay at +110 despite the club’s three-game skid. He worries about Brian Bellow after a 114-pitch complete game against Colorado—an atypical workload that previously led to a drop-off in his next start (mediocre outing versus San Francisco after a seven-inning stint vs New York). Rays righty Ryan Pepiot, meanwhile, has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts and carries a 3.32 ERA. Tampa’s bullpen ERA has crept near 4.00, but Boston’s relief excellence doesn’t erase the potential for Bellow regression. The Red Sox have rattled off nine straight wins, yet Kenny believes that streak inflates the price and Pepiot’s upside plus plus-money makes Tampa the betting side.

Ryan Wormeli predicted Junior Caminero will eclipse 40 homers this season and be drafted as a consensus top-three third baseman by 2026. Wormeli cited Caminero’s 22 first-half long balls, 100th-percentile bat speed, and rare ability to drive the ball to all fields—his homers are evenly distributed pull/center/opposite. Statcast’s poor sweet-spot and squared-up rates actually make the production more impressive; even a small improvement there could push the power higher. Wormeli added that tropicana’s friendly right-center alley should goose a few extra cheap shots and noted aging or park-downgraded vets (Manny Machado, Rafael Devers in Oracle, Austin Riley) are vulnerable to Caminero leap-frogging them behind Jose Ramirez in ADP.

Kenny G said there is value backing Tampa Bay on the run line (+1.5 at roughly -140) or even on the +155 moneyline at Boston. He expects another tight affair after the Rays dropped the first two games of the series by a single run apiece. Kenny trusts Shane Baz more than the market: 8-4, 4.34 ERA with only three earned allowed over six innings in Detroit his last time out and a respectable 5.1-IP, 3-ER line in his earlier meeting with Boston. Tampa, still 2nd in batting average and 7th in runs, has sputtered to 4-3-7-2-1 runs in its last five; Kenny anticipates positive regression. On the other side, Garrett Crochet owns a shiny 2.39 ERA but has been a bit hittable lately (11 hits in his last 10 innings) and has never faced Tampa—historically a tough assignment for first-time lefties. With Boston’s eight-game winning streak inflating a ‑190 price and Tampa’s bullpen (3.96 ERA) nearly matching Boston’s (3.47), Kenny prefers grabbing the run and a half in what he projects as another one-run game.

Harrelson advised playing Yandy Diaz under 1.5 total bases. Diaz has stayed below this number in five straight games and seven of his last ten, logging only singles while averaging 4.4 plate appearances in that span. Historically he struggles in the matchup: 14 unders in his last 20 meetings with Boston. On the season he has failed to clear 1.5 bases in 51 of 89 games (57%). Diaz’s splits versus left-handed pitching are a major concern—his batting average drops from .287 overall to .225 against southpaws, the opposite of Bellinger’s profile. Tonight he faces a lefty he is 0-for-1 against career-wise, and he has also gone under in five straight road games, averaging just 0.8 total bases on the road during that streak.

Welsh backed Tampa Bay on the first-five money line largely as a bet against Walker Buehler, who owns an ERA north of six since returning. He noted the Red Sox have been swinging it well but trusts Taj Bradley to hold the line while Buehler continues to get hit, giving the Rays the edge through five.

Eric Lindquist said he will fire on Jonathan Aranda’s home-run prop at any number better than +350 against Boston rookie Hunter Dobbins. Dobbins sports just a 17.3 % strikeout rate and a 42.8 % hard-hit rate, metrics Lindy called "BP fastballs for lefty pull power," which fits Aranda’s 44-degree pull-side launch profile. Lindquist missed the early +600 that briefly popped, but he still sees value because Fenway’s short right-field porch pairs with Dobbins’ mediocre velo. With Junior Caminero and Brandon Lowe providing lineup protection, Lindquist expects Aranda to see at least one juicy fastball per plate appearance and prefers a quarter-unit sprinkle on the long-ball market rather than laying full units on Rays moneylines.

Brad Francis said to back the Rays on the money line at Fenway. He noted Tampa Bay has won seven straight games as a road favorite in Boston and now hands the ball to ace Drew Rasmussen. Francis believes Rasmussen’s presence plus the recent head-to-head trend outweighs any home-field edge the Red Sox might have.

Drew Martin urged bettors to grab Tampa Bay at -115 in Fenway. He explained that Drew Rasmussen will serve as the opener with 25-year-old fire-baller Joe Boyle handling bulk innings, a combo that has logged 10 scoreless frames and 14 strikeouts in Boyle’s two previous tandem appearances. Boston still has no listed starter and may default to a mediocre bullpen, which Martin called a clear disadvantage. He also downplayed the Red Sox’s six-game winning streak, noting it came against last-place Washington and Colorado, while Tampa enters with 50 wins and the deeper staff. Given the uncertain Boston pitching plan, bullpen gap, and class jump for the Sox, Martin believes the Rays should be a larger favorite and labeled them his best bet of the card.

Joey Pisapia delivered a "hot take," saying Junior Caminero is "our next Miguel Cabrera"—essentially slotting the 20-year-old somewhere between Manny Machado and peak Miggy in long-term value. While the conversation was light on granular stats, Pisapia’s conviction stemmed from Caminero’s precocious power (already 28 career MiLB homers above High-A before turning 21), advanced opposite-field approach, and the fact that MLB marketing wants young sluggers in marquee events like the Home Run Derby. Pisapia urged dynasty managers to treat Caminero as a future cornerstone and acquire him now, before the Rays inevitably clear a path to everyday at-bats.

It's The Final Round said Chandler Simpson is the ideal left-handed bat to attack Walker Buehler on Thursday. Buehler is allowing a .333 average to lefties and has been hit hard in four straight starts after two decent outings against Tampa earlier in the season. Simpson has a .304 average versus right-handed pitching, is 10-for-25 (.400) over the past week, and owns hits in 18 of his last 20 games. Even better for single props, 17 of those hits were singles, including an active 11-game single streak. The tout framed Simpson strictly as a "get-a-hit" or "single" play that can anchor a hit parlay, with a potential stolen-base sprinkle for bettors hunting a bigger price.

Brad Francis took Taj Bradley over 2.5 earned runs allowed. He called Bradley "super volatile" and highlighted a 3-of-4 stretch of giving up at least three runs. Fenway’s hitter-friendly dimensions combined with a "red-hot" Red Sox lineup make the right-hander vulnerable again. Francis therefore expects Bradley to get "smacked up," clearing the 2.5 ER line for the fourth time in five outings.

Eric Lindquist said the Jonathan Aranda home-run prop is worth firing on at +550 or longer against Detroit right-hander Reese Olson. Lindquist stressed that Olson’s shiny 2.89 ERA hides a 3.59 xERA and an almost certainly unsustainable total of just three homers allowed all year. Olson’s heater has been barreled at a 10% clip in July, and Lindquist expects HR regression as temps rise at Comerica. With Rays opener Zack Littell having allowed the most bombs of any qualified starter, Lindquist projects a high-variance, power-friendly game overall, which makes the big number on Aranda’s homer “too good to pass up.”

B Wade played Zack Littell over 4.5 strikeouts at Detroit. The right-hander has cashed this number in five straight starts and in 6 of his last 9 overall. On the road he has hit it in four straight trips (Minnesota, Baltimore, Boston, Houston). Versus Detroit specifically, Littell owns a perfect 3-for-3 record, logging 7-K efforts in both 2024 meetings and 5 strikeouts in this season’s prior matchup on June 22. Wade considered 17.5 outs as an alternative but passed because Littell failed to reach the sixth inning in his last two starts against the Tigers despite pitching well. Strikeouts were deemed the safer angle.

Lonte Smith recommended backing Tampa at roughly –125 because Ryan Pepiot owns the clear edge over Jack Flaherty. Pepiot has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts and shows swing-and-miss stuff with 7+ strikeouts in four of his past six. He already stifled Detroit on June 21 (1 ER over 5.1 IP, 3 H). Flaherty has been wildly inconsistent—one good start, one blow-up—and faces a Rays line-up that has historically hit him hard. Detroit’s offense has been winning despite middling numbers, so Smith sees value on the better arm. He also leaned to the over given that every game in the previous series landed 12, 11 and 22 runs, but his primary wager is Rays money-line.

Ron Pick Dawgz laid out why Tampa is a road buy: the Rays own one of baseball’s best 30-day OPS marks versus right-handers, while Jack Flaherty’s ERA is “just under five” and trending poorly. Ryan Pepio, meanwhile, gives Tampa the superior mound option. Ron recommended Rays money-line, expecting their righty-crushing lineup to strike early and Pepio to navigate Detroit’s middling bats.

Lindquist recommended going back to Jonathan Aranda props (HR or 2+ total bases) and slotting him into DFS lineups against Jack Flaherty. Aranda owns "ridiculous" splits versus right-handed pitching – a .267 ISO and .400+ expected wOBA in his brief MLB sample – while Flaherty has surrendered "well over a .200 expected ISO" to left-handed hitters this season. The analyst pointed out that Tropicana Field depresses homers, but Detroit’s Comerica Park plays much fairer and the Rays moved Aranda up in the order when Brandon Lau sits. All signs, per Lindquist, point to Aranda barreling at least one extra-base hit Tuesday.

Just A Bet Outside endorsed riding Shane Baz on Monday, pointing to his return to pre-injury form. Over his last two outings Baz tossed 7 and 8 innings respectively, piling up 20 strikeouts while allowing only three earned runs versus Oakland and Kansas City. The host believes those performances signal that his fastball/slider combo is fully back and that Detroit’s slumping lineup (bottom-10 wOBA in July) will struggle to make contact. Backing Baz’s strikeout over or laying the short road juice on Tampa’s moneyline were both mentioned as viable bets.

Dylan Rockford set the Tigers as only a −115 favorite, so he is hunting for plus odds on Tampa’s moneyline. Rockford pointed to Jack Flaherty allowing 15 runs in his last two starts and 21 in his last four while Baz has won four straight decisions and fanned six in his most recent outing. Historically, the Rays average roughly five runs per game against Detroit compared to 3.7 for the Tigers. He personally modeled the total at 9.3 and expects the market to open lower, making an over play attractive— especially with Tampa’s bullpen woes and Flaherty’s current form creating a run-heavy environment. His plan: grab the Rays at any plus number and look to the over if sportsbooks hang 9 or less.

Scott Reichel advised playing the Rays in the first-five innings Monday. He trusts Shane Baz, who is 8-3 with a 4.33 ERA and has looked "in better form" than Jack Flaherty, while Detroit’s starter has surrendered 21 earned runs over his last four outings. Reichel wants to avoid Tampa’s shaky bullpen that just blew a four-run lead and lost on a walk-off bunt Saturday. Because Detroit will likely open a small home favorite, bettors should get plus money or a cheap price on Tampa early. His takeaway: isolate the pitching edge with Baz before the relievers get involved.

Drew Martin circled Tampa Bay as a play even before Minnesota announced a starter, emphasizing several edges. The Rays are 20-14 on the road and boast a top-10 offense both season-long and over the past week, whereas the Twins are 1-4 in their last five and rate dead last in wRC+ during that span. Taj Bradley’s game-log yo-yo (shutouts immediately following each poor outing) suggests a bounce-back after allowing five earned in his previous start; Martin noted every time the 24-year-old has surrendered 5+ ER, he has blanked the next opponent. Tampa’s bullpen grades better, and because Bradley’s surface numbers are mediocre the market should not hang a prohibitive price. Martin wants to grab the Rays as soon as a reasonable moneyline is posted.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Rays on the moneyline. He noted Taj Bradley’s 3.95 road ERA compared with a 5.55 mark at Tropicana, Minnesota’s likely bullpen-day starter, and the Twins’ relief corps ranking near the bottom of the AL while allowing a .258 opponent average. Tampa’s lineup owns a .256 road batting average (3rd-best in the AL) and the club has taken six of the last ten from Minnesota. With the Twins sliding in the AL Central and the Rays surging in the East, the tout expects Tampa to control the game from start to finish.

It’s The Final Round offered Josh Lowe as a lean if bettors want more than the core three picks. Lowe owns a blazing .545 average over the last 10 days and has collected hits in 7 of his previous 10 games (13 of 17 overall). Those numbers make him a viable add-on hit prop in the same Paddack matchup, though the tout labeled it a lighter play than the primary trio.

It’s The Final Round recommended Yandy Diaz to record a hit against Chris Paddack. The tout highlighted that Paddack is giving up a .296 average to right-handed hitters in his last three starts, while Diaz is batting .360 over his past 10 games. Diaz has hits in 8 of his last 10 and in 20 of his last 22 games, underscoring his reliability for a simple 1-plus-hit wager.

It’s The Final Round advised betting Brandon Lowe to record a hit versus Chris Paddack. Paddack has allowed a .273 average to left-handed hitters over his last three outings, and Lowe owns a .381 average in his past 10 games. He has notched a hit in 9 of his last 10 and 18 of his last 19 contests, giving bettors a strong statistical foundation for the hit prop.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the Rays, saying anything with a plus sign is an auto-bet. Tampa is batting .280 over the past ten and has won four of six on the road. Lattell allowed one earned over 6.1 innings in the May meeting with Minnesota and has generally been steady, despite some homer issues (13 long balls in his last nine starts). Smith pointed to the Twins’ .224 team average in their last ten and emphasized Paddock’s hard-contact problems, adding that Minnesota has lost 10 of 14 at home. Better offense, better pitcher, plus money – Smith called it a no-brainer.

Scott Reichel grabbed Tampa Bay at ‑105, arguing the wrong team is favored in Minneapolis. Zack Lattell has given up just two total runs over his last two outings, whereas Chris Paddock’s season has fallen apart with 19 earned allowed in his last four. Minnesota is barely over .500 at home but has dropped 10 of its last 14 at Target Field while batting .224 in its last 10. Reichel trusts the Rays lineup, sees the pitching edge clearly on Tampa’s side, and called any plus-money or near-even number on the Rays a bargain.

Kenny G labeled Tampa Bay a must-bet at –102, pointing to Zach Lattell’s recent dominance (12 innings, seven hits, two earned over his last two starts) and the fact he already stifled Minnesota on May 26th (6.1 IP, 1 ER). He contrasted Lattell with Chris Paddack, who owns a 4.70 ERA, gave up two bombs to Detroit last outing, and has surrendered seven runs in two meetings with the Rays this year. Tampa’s bats rank 7th in runs and 2nd in average, while Minnesota’s offense has gone ice-cold—1, 2, 0, 0, 5 and 4 runs in its last six contests—and can’t overcome a bullpen now sitting at 4.25 ERA. The Rays are 20-14 on the road (19-15 to the under) whereas the Twins have dropped four of five. Kenny expects Tampa to win outright and said the pick is headed straight to his pinned comment.

Eric Lindquist doubled down on Brandon Lowe (pronounced “Lau”) to homer again in Minneapolis. Lowe has been, in Lindquist’s words, “on another planet,” and now gets to swing in 93-degree heat with a 20-mph jet stream to right, ideal for his pull-side loft. Twins right-hander Chris Paddack sports a 1.62 HR/9 and middling 39.6 % hard-hit rate; Lindquist noted Paddack’s four-seam/change combo plays directly into Lowe’s power zone. Given Lowe’s recent power binge and the extreme hitting weather, Lindquist thinks any HR price longer than +425 is a green-light wager.

Just A Bet Outside recommended the Tampa Bay Rays team-total over 2.5 runs in Minnesota. Forecasts call for 90°F temperatures and 13-mph wind out to left-center—one of Friday’s best hitting settings. Tampa has scored 3+ in nine of the last 10 overall and nine of the last 10 on the road (5.9 RPG). During the past three weeks versus righties they rank 1st in wRC+, 2nd in slugging, and 5th in ISO. Chris Paddack has allowed 3+ earned in four straight with a 6.06 June ERA and diminished whiffs. With the Rays batting first and guaranteed nine trips, the tout sees three runs as the floor and likes the over 2.5 for parlays or solo wagers.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Tampa Bay on the money-line. The Rays have won seven of their last nine away games and boast a 16-9 record as a visiting underdog. They already took a series from Minnesota earlier this year, outscoring them 14-6. With Zack Littell (transcribed as Lattell) dealing and the Twins in a pitching funk, the tout expects Tampa’s scorching lineup to stay hot at Target Field.

Malcom Bamford advised backing the Rays -1.5 on Wednesday. He noted Ryan Pepiot has allowed just three earned runs across his last four Tropicana Field outings and left with a lead even in the wild 22-8 loss to Baltimore. Oakland is dragging a 17-19 run-line record as a road dog versus right-handed pitching, and Mitch Spence is still stretched out from bullpen duty, rarely clearing five innings. With Tampa swinging it well and the park trending toward overs, Bamford expects the Rays to jump Spence early and let a rested bullpen protect a multi-run cushion.

Kenny G recommended laying ‑165 with Tampa Bay after an annoying Game 1 loss. Shane Baz has found a groove—8-3 record and coming off eight shutout innings with nine Ks—and the Rays are 5-0 in his last five turns thanks to robust run support. Tampa’s bullpen sports a 3.74 ERA and, despite a few recent hiccups, still grades out as reliable. Oakland counters with Jeffrey Springs (4.30 ERA) and one of the league’s worst relief units, a combination Kenny doubts can survive a motivated Rays lineup that ranks second in batting average, sixth in runs, and ninth in slugging. He acknowledged the A’s minor offensive uptick (6, 5, 7 runs past three) but trusts Baz plus home-field—Tampa is 27-23 at the Trop and 28-19-3 to the under there—to steady the ship. In short, he wants the superior arm, bullpen, and bats even at a chalky price, making Rays moneyline his play.

Lonte Smith planted his flag on Brandon Lowe’s home-run prop, predicting not one but two long balls against Jeffrey Springs and the Athletics. Lowe carries a 17-game hitting streak and has gone deep three times in his last four contests while posting elite underlying power metrics. Springs struggles to keep the ball in the park—ranking among the top 15 in homers allowed—and Tropicana Field is playing smaller than usual this summer. Smith believes Lowe’s current barrel rate plus Springs’ fly-ball profile create a perfect storm for a multi-homer night and urged bettors to ladder Lowe’s dinger props for plus-money payouts.

Mark nearly added the Rays/A’s OVER 8.5 (+105) to his card, noting Tampa owns MLB’s best June record and ranks top-3 in isolated power this month. Oakland’s JP Sears has surrendered a .386 wOBA to right-handed bats away from the Coliseum, while Tampa starter Drew Rasmussen is working on a reduced pitch count after elbow issues, exposing a Rays bullpen that threw 12 innings over the weekend. Forecasted drizzle should keep humidity high—conditions he believes help the ball carry in the Trop’s open-roof setup. He expects a 5-4 or 6-3 type result and would also bet Rays’ team total Over 4.5.

Just A Bet Outside leaned to Tampa Bay’s team-total over 2.5 runs, citing Jacob Lopez’s pronounced struggles against right-handed bats (.250 AVG, .412 SLG, 4.40 xFIP) and road hiccups (4.50 ERA, .275 BAA). The Rays project to roll out eight right-handed hitters and have been pounding lefties lately: third-best wRC+ and No. 2 batting average against southpaws over the last three weeks. Tampa has scored at least three runs in 12 of 17 home games started by a left-hander and has recently dropped 10, 3, 12, 8 and 5 runs in its last five such match-ups. The host expects Lopez’s 23-inning, one-run heater to regress in a park that amplifies Rays power and prefers the over as the parlay’s second leg or a solo wager.

Dylan Rockford grabbed the Rays –1.5 at plus money, calling Tampa a 'wagon' in this spot. He trusts Drew Rasmussen’s 2.45 ERA and strong Tropicana splits, and he pointed out that Oakland is batting only .235 on the road while its bullpen was taxed in Sunday’s blow-out loss to the Yankees. Rockford expects Tampa’s deeper relief corps to stretch the margin late once Rasmussen exits after his typical five-inning stint. With the better lineup, home park edge, and fresher pen, Rockford is happy to take the plus-odds run-line price.

Bill Harrelson advised backing Jake Mangum OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Oakland. Mangum has cashed this line in 7 of his last 10, 13 of his last 20 (65%), and 5 of his last 6 at Tropicana Field where he’s averaging three combined stats per game. He’s seeing a healthy 4.1-4.5 plate appearances nightly, and season-long he’s cleared in 25 of 48 (52%). The opposing starter owns a .250 opponent average versus right-handed bats—14 points worse than his overall mark—giving Mangum a softer matchup. Market support is strong: DraftKings –130, Fliff –135, and Sleeper –147 all shade the over. With a red-hot bat, steady volume atop Tampa’s order, and a pitcher who struggles with righties, Harrelson expects Mangum to pick up multiple counting stats again.

Razzle pointed to Drew Rasmussen’s 0.86 HR/9 and 2.76 ERA at Tropicana Field as reasons to fire him up against an Oakland squad that is feast-or-famine. While the 5.5 K-prop is shaded to the under, Rasmussen posts a 24 % strike-out rate at home and limits barrels, making him a safe SP2 on DraftKings. Razzle will monitor weather but expects Rasmussen to deliver 18+ DK points if the roof stays closed.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised betting the Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline. The tout stressed a massive edge at the plate: Tampa Bay is hitting .296 with 32 runs over its last six games and ranks fourth in MLB in hits and sixth in runs on the season, while Oakland has slumped to a .185 average and 19 total runs in that same span. Drew Rasmussen’s current form (2.45 ERA, 0.96 WHIP; Rays 7-1 in his last eight starts) together with his home dominance (2.16 ERA, .195 BAA in 58.2 IP) further tilts the matchup. Although Jacob Lopez owns an overall 1-run allowed over his last 23 innings, the tout highlighted his glaring road split—4.50 ERA with opponents batting .275 in 20 road frames. Combine Lopez’s road woes with an Athletics bullpen saddled with a 5.93 ERA and there is “simply no good reason to bet against the Rays,” especially with Tampa chasing the Yankees in the division race.

B Wade also took Junior Caminero OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, noting he usually hits 5th with Mangum 6th, so one productive inning can cash both props. Caminero has topped this mark in seven of his last 10 and in 10 of his last 13 overall. The 21-year-old’s approach has improved each month and he stays locked in against an Oakland staff that Wade expects to regress. The same Jacob Lopez data (early blowups, limited big-league track record) that boosts Mangum applies here, creating a correlated Rays mini-stack Wade believes the books are undervaluing.

B Wade backed Jake Mangum OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Mangum has recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 games and has topped this combo number in seven of those contests, averaging 2.2 HRR during the stretch. He owns a .316 season average (.292 vs lefties) and gets a favorable matchup with Oakland rookie southpaw Jacob Lopez. Lopez has been tagged for 3, 7 and 5 runs in three different starts this season and was yanked in the second inning twice. Wade believes Tampa’s red-hot offense will rattle Lopez early, giving Mangum plenty of chances to clear the line.

Martin called Tampa Bay “one of the hottest teams in baseball” and said the Rays are the only direction he can look Sunday. He acknowledged Taj Bradley’s volatility – the right-hander was tagged by Baltimore in his last meeting – but still prefers Tampa’s red-hot lineup against Dean Kremer. Kremer did limit the Rays to one earned over five innings last week, yet Martin sees Tampa’s recent offensive tear as the deciding factor. He will back the Rays if the market hangs a manageable number, passing only if the price becomes too steep.

Bill Harrelson said Brandon Lowe is a strong play for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Sunday in Baltimore. Harrelson pointed out that Lowe has cleared this number in six of his last seven meetings with the Orioles and in four straight overall, posting monster games of 9 and 4 H+R+RBI in his last two. The second baseman is on a 7-for-10 and 15-for-20 tear (75%) and has cashed in 57% of his games on the season (44/77). He has been even better away from Tropicana Field, exceeding the line in eight consecutive road contests while averaging 4.0 H+R+RBI. Versus projected starter Dean Kremer, Lowe owns a .455 AVG and .571 OBP over 14 career plate appearances. Harrelson stressed Lowe’s .300 average against right-handed pitching vs his overall .273 mark, and noted that Kremer is surrendering a .300 average to left-handed bats. Books such as DraftKings have the Over at –145, reinforcing the play.

Reichel slammed the pick’em price and took Tampa outright. Zack Littell’s 3.78 ERA is solid for a pitch-to-contact arm, while Baltimore’s Cole Irvin (whom Reichel referred to as "F1") has been blistered for 22 hits, 13 earned runs, and five homers in his last two outings. The Rays are 11 games over .500 overall and +7 on the road; the Orioles are 12 games under and below .500 at Camden Yards. Given form and team quality, Reichel expects Tampa’s bats to pounce and the better bullpen to lock it down.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Rays on the money line, noting that oddsmakers seldom give Tampa Bay near-even odds and the matchup heavily favors them. Zach Littell has strung together a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and just nine earned runs across his last 23 innings, including a six-frame quality start versus Baltimore a week ago. Meanwhile, Kyle Bradish staggers in with a 7.40 June ERA and a microscopic sample in which Tampa hitters have slashed .364/.400/.545 against him. The tout argued that Tampa’s knack for manufacturing runs, paired with Baltimore’s familiarity keeping the number short, creates mis-priced value on the superior form pitcher and deeper bullpen. He recommended grabbing the Rays before the market corrects toward the road favorite.

Kenny G stamped Tampa Bay at –110 as a best bet, citing a glaring pitching edge and opposite-direction trends for the offenses. He called Zach Eflin ‘broken’ after the right-hander was torched in back-to-back starts—10 hits, 6 ER in three innings at Yankee Stadium followed by 12 hits, 7 ER over five against these same Rays—raising his ERA to 5.46. Meanwhile Zack Littell (6-7, 3.78 ERA) is coming off a sharp five-inning, one-run outing versus Detroit and held Baltimore to three earned across six frames on June 17. Tampa’s bullpen owns a 3.30 ERA (top-five), whereas Baltimore’s relief corps sits at 4.49, bottom third of MLB. At the plate the Rays are sixth in runs and second in batting average (.257) and carry an MLB-best 19-12 road record; Baltimore is 34-46 overall, below .500 at home (17-21) and just 23rd in batting average. Kenny concluded the market pricing both teams even is a mistake, so he is locking in the Rays at virtual pick’em odds.

B Wade backed OVER 5.5 hits-allowed for Zack Littell, noting the Rays right-hander has surrendered at least six hits in 7 of his last 9 starts and averages 6.2 hits during that span. Littell’s road/home split is even uglier—6.5 hits per road start versus 5.5 at home, with outings of 8, 10 and 8 hits in his last three trips. Baltimore just dropped 22 runs on Tampa Bay and enters Saturday brimming with confidence. Given Littell’s year-long pattern of allowing an extra hit away from Tropicana Field and the Orioles’ red-hot bats, Wade expects the over to cash again.

Lindquist is doubling down on Brandon Lowe’s homer upside in Baltimore. Orioles opener Albert Suarez and bulk man Keegan Akin have combined to allow a .208 expected ISO to lefties, and Camden Yards boosts left-handed pull power despite the deeper left-center wall. Lowe carries a 13-degree average launch and a .514 expected slugging mark, batting second every day for Tampa Bay. Lindquist wants +320 or longer on the HR prop—markets were dealing +425 on Thursday—and considers Lowe a prime one-off in single-entry DFS as well.

It's The Final Round highlighted Junior Caminero as the fourth Rays stick to exploit Tamayuki Shigano. The rookie is batting .435 off righties over the last 10 days (25 PA) and has logged hits in 8 of his previous 10 games. Caminero’s 27.8% sweet-spot rate may rank just 242nd, but the tout stressed that raw exit-velocity talent plus Shigano’s .405 average allowed to right-handers provides a high-floor opportunity for hit props. Bettors uncomfortable with multiple correlated Rays tickets were encouraged to include Caminero in Novig parlays that stack hits, runs, and RBIs.

It's The Final Round called Yandy Diaz "on fire" and a must-play in hit and total-bases markets against Tamayuki Shigano. Shigano has been even worse to right-handed hitters, coughing up a .405 average in his last three starts. Meanwhile Diaz sports a ridiculous .464 average versus right-handed pitching in the past 10 days (31 PA) and has a knock in 15 of his last 16 contests. Although his 29.6% sweet-spot rate is middling, Diaz’s elite hard-hit profile plus Shigano’s poor contact suppression give the tout confidence that Diaz will extend his heater and reward bettors.

It's The Final Round advised backing Jonathan Aranda for at least one hit Friday because he checks every box versus Tamayuki Shigano. Aranda owns a .391 average off right-handed pitching in the last 10 days (25 PA) and an 11-game hitting streak. His 40.5% launch-angle sweet-spot rate is 23rd-best in MLB, far higher than league average and perfectly suited to punish Shigano, whose own sweet-spot rate allowed (37.2%) is among the worst in baseball. With Shigano surrendering a .286 average to lefties in his last three outings, the tout expects Aranda to keep the line moving for Tampa and cash simple "to record a hit" tickets with upside for multi-total bases.