Kenny G gave a slight betting lean to the Rangers at +110 in Houston. Jacob deGrom (9-2, 2.29 ERA) gets the ball after a rare hiccup versus the Angels (5 IP, 3 ER) but earlier blanked the Astros over eight innings in May. Texas owns MLB’s 4th-best bullpen ERA (3.37) and has erupted for 7, 11, 8 and 13 runs in its last four despite ranking only 23rd in season-long scoring—evidence, Kenny says, that the bats are finally catching up. Houston counters with Framber Valdez (10-4, 2.90) yet is reeling from four straight losses; Valdez just surrendered four earned to the Dodgers and allowed three in seven frames the last time he saw Texas. The Astros bullpen (3.30 ERA) remains elite, but an offense that is first in batting average has produced just 3-2-6-5 runs during the skid. With Houston still priced –130 and the total parked at 6.5, Kenny prefers grabbing the live dog and also mentioned the NRFI as a viable add-on, though he admitted the play is not a full-unit "hammer."

Cash Out Sports Picks fired on Texas. The Angels are hitting just .216 against left-handers (second-worst in MLB) and southpaw Patrick Corbin held them to one run over 5.1 innings earlier this season. On the flip side, Griffin Canning Kochenovich owns a 5.09 ERA and 0-3 record in three career starts versus Texas, surrendering eight hits and four earned in 4.1 IP this year. The Rangers have won 10 of the last 12 head-to-heads, so the tout is content to ride the hotter, better-matched club.

It's The Final Round targeted Corey Seager against Angels right-hander Jack Czakonovic (the Rangers knocked him around for eight hits and four earned runs in 4.2 IP back in April). Czakonovic is surrendering a .300 average to lefties, and Seager fits that platoon edge. Entering Thursday he was already 7-for-22 (.318) with three homers, five RBI, and six runs over his previous six games, and he picked up another hit during Wednesday's action while the video was being recorded. Seager is also 1-for-2 lifetime off Czakonovic (.500). The tout recommended Seager for hit, total bases, or home-run props, noting the matchup and recent form give him legitimate fence-clearing upside.

Brad Francis backed the Rangers on the money-line for Thursday’s series finale in Anaheim. He pointed out that Texas has taken nine of the last ten meetings with the Angels and expects a bounce-back after Wednesday’s 11-8 defeat. Francis stressed that Texas’ lineup has been "looking good of late" and gets an appetizing matchup against substitute starter Kohei Iwase (mispronounced by Brad as "cohanawicks"), a pitcher he specifically wants to fade. With the Rangers’ bats still hot and the club historically crushing this matchup, Francis labeled Texas ML as his favorite play of the slate.

Just A Bet Outside also likes Corey Seager for a 1-plus-hit prop against Kyle Hendricks. Seager has a hit in nine of his last ten games and multiple knocks in back-to-back contests. He has hit safely in eight of his last ten road games, is slashing .272 versus right-handed pitching (compared to .203 vs lefties), and is heating up with a .304 average so far in July after a frigid June. Hendricks owns a sub-15% strikeout rate and relies on pitch-to-contact, which plays into Seager’s line-drive approach. The shortstop is 3-for-9 lifetime off Hendricks, and the host expects Texas’ No. 2 hitter to see four to five plate appearances. If the two-leg parlay price is too steep, Seager can be paired with another hitter or played as a standalone hit prop.

Malcom Bamford bet Texas –120 because he trusts Nathan Eovaldi to control a punch-less Angels lineup and does not believe Jose Soriano can match him. Bamford rattled off several data points: the Rangers have cashed the under in 64.4 % of their games, indicating consistently low-scoring, pitcher-driven wins; Eovaldi just spun five scoreless at Baltimore and owns a 2.79 road ERA; Soriano’s home ERA is an ugly 5.57, inflated by the eight earned he surrendered to Washington in his last Anaheim start. Texas leads the season series 3-0, is 13-8 as road favorites, and remains "quite reliable" when laying a short price. With the Angels struggling for offense, Bamford projected a 5-2 or 4-2 Rangers victory and labeled the –120 moneyline "absolutely fair."

Ron Pick Dawgz recommended the Rangers on the money line, pointing to a decisive pitching advantage. Nathan Eovaldi has looked fully healthy since returning from the IL, spinning five scoreless innings in his last start and posting a sub-3.00 ERA on the year. Jose Soriano, meanwhile, owns an inflated home ERA over the past two seasons and was torched for eight runs in his most recent Angel Stadium appearance. Ron conceded Soriano flashed upside on the road against Atlanta, yet stressed there is "no margin for error" when Eovaldi is dealing. Even a so-called quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) by Soriano could still lose, so Ron is siding firmly with Texas.

The tout rode Jacob deGrom and backed Texas on the moneyline. deGrom has been dominant over his last seven starts (5-1, 1.87 ERA, 0.83 WHIP in 43.1 IP) while Yusei Kikuchi owns a 2.32 ERA but already saw Texas once this year. Once the starters exit, the gap widens: the Rangers bullpen is fourth in MLB (3.32 ERA) and the Angels pen languishes 27th (5.01). Recent form favors Texas as well—6.2 runs per game over the last five and an eight-game head-to-head winning streak—so the tout expects the Rangers to “figure out” Kikuchi and cash.

Just A Bet Outside said Jacob deGrom is in a prime strike-out spot Monday in Anaheim. The Angels own the 5th-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching this season at 24.2%, and deGrom has piled up 100 punch-outs in 101.1 innings. He has logged 6-plus strikeouts in five straight outings and carries a massive 32.5% strikeout rate on the road compared to 21.4% at Globe Life Field. The tout noted deGrom’s whiff rate jumps to 29.2% versus left-handed bats, an edge against an Angels lineup that tilts lefty. While he rarely clears 7 Ks (only 3 of 17 starts), the matchup and venue give confidence to bet his over on standard props (likely 5.5 or 6.5) or use him as a K ladder anchor.

Brad Pick Dawgz played Rangers 1st-5 -0.5 at even money because Jacob deGrom is "that much better" than Yusei Kikuchi. He pointed out that Texas has momentum—"been playing pretty damn well"—and expects deGrom to keep the Angels’ bats quiet long enough for the Rangers’ offense to scrape together an early lead. The combination of the pitching mismatch and team form made the even-money price too good for him to pass up.

Lindquist circled Wyatt Langford as a home-run dart against Yusei Kikuchi in warm Anaheim conditions (82° first-pitch temperature). Langford’s underlying numbers pop: a .272 expected ISO and nearly 20° average launch angle versus lefties despite spending time on the IL. Kikuchi’s strikeout rate plummets from 29.6% to 23% when facing right-handed hitters and he allows a .207 expected ISO with a 14.5° launch angle. With virtually no lefties to hide behind and a hitter-friendly marine layer this time of year, Lindquist expects Langford to see at least three high-leverage ABs. He recommends a standard HR prop and sprinkles a small unit on a Langford-plus-Berger two-homer parlay for lottery-ticket upside.

Dylan Rockford hammered Rangers first-five at roughly –145 with Jacob deGrom on the mound. DeGrom has allowed two or fewer runs in 14 consecutive starts and has yet to give up more than six hits in any of them. His elite strikeout-to-walk ratio plus a top-five Texas bullpen make it hard for the Angels to generate early offense, especially with Yusei Kikuchi’s 2.81 ERA masking a 4.12 xERA that hints at regression. Rockford simply refuses to fade ‘a top-five pitcher this season’ and expects Texas to lead through five in another dominant deGrom outing.

Kenny G advised grabbing the Rangers at +100, calling it fair value given the matchup. He noted that Texas owns a 3.34 bullpen ERA—fourth-best in baseball—while San Diego’s lone strength (a 3.38 pen ERA) is offset by Randy Vasquez’s inconsistency. Vasquez has ‘burned us too many times,’ most recently surrendering nine hits and four earned to Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Kumar Rocker’s three straight quality starts have all resulted in Ranger wins, and Texas’s bats have finally awakened, scoring 6-10-6-4-3-6 despite ranking 25th in runs on the season. San Diego’s lineup is ice-cold (1-6-0-2-6-1-1 runs last seven) and sits 23rd in runs, 24th in slugging. Kenny trusts the hotter offense and markedly better starter/bullpen combo, saying he’ll live with the Rangers’ 17-25 road record because the plus money more than accounts for the risk.

Malcom Bamford’s long-ball dart landed on Adolis Garcia to take Tommy Yuki Sugano deep in Arlington. Bamford reminded listeners Sugano has been tagged for eight homers in his last four starts and carries a 46% hard-hit rate into steamy Globe Life Field, a recipe for flighted baseballs. Garcia owns a .288 ISO against right-handed fastballs and has already parked 10 of his 17 bombs at home. Bamford prefers the chalkier Garcia over Jonah Heim and projected any price north of +350 as playable.

Malcom Bamford laid –160 with Texas because he sees a clear pitching and bullpen gap. Tommy Yuki Sugano limped through a brutal June—3.4 HR/9, 5.61 FIP—but kept cashing thanks to unsustainable run support. Bamford expects that luck to run dry against Nathan Eovaldi, who shook off rust with a three-inning tune-up versus Seattle and should stretch to 85–90 pitches here. Texas’ relief corps ranks sixth in xFIP compared to Baltimore’s 19th, and the Rangers’ bats have finally woken up (121 wRC+ over the last week). Bamford priced Texas at –175 and is comfortable at the current number or a reduced run-line play.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Corey Seeger for 2-plus total bases so long as books deal a price better than –110 in Wednesday’s matchup with Baltimore’s Tomoyuki Sagano. Lindquist highlighted that Sagano, a 35-year-old NPB import, is running a 364 xwOBA and 292 xBA with a split-finger–heavy arsenal that has not fooled lefties (200+ expected ISO allowed). Seeger, now fully healthy and batting second, should maximize plate appearances and owns the platoon edge with a career .399 wOBA versus split-finger pitchers. Globe Life Field’s summer temps further aid carry, and Lindquist said he will sprinkle a home-run prop but prefers the safer 2+ bags market given the attainable minus-money price.

Kenny G advised eating the –205 because Jacob deGrom is simply in another class compared to Baltimore’s Brandon Young. deGrom boasts an 8-2 record, 2.08 ERA, and is fresh off a 7-IP, 1-hit, 7-K shutout of these same Orioles at Camden Yards. Texas is 5th-best in bullpen ERA, so Kenny expects last night’s meltdown to be a one-off. Young, meanwhile, has made only three MLB starts and has been roughed up in all of them, sitting at 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA and having already surrendered five runs to Texas last week. The Orioles’ relief unit (4.54 ERA) and 17-25 road mark compound the mismatch. Offensively, Baltimore’s year-long woes—23rd AVG, 15th SLG—contrast with a Rangers lineup that, while just 25th in runs on the season, has posted 6-4-3-6-7 in its last five and now faces a hittable rookie. Arlington’s 30-12 Under trend also points to a tight, deGrom-driven victory, but Kenny’s primary recommendation is the Rangers moneyline, calling it the safest play on the board.

Just A Bet Outside said Jacob deGrom's strikeout over is a strong play against Baltimore on Tuesday. The Orioles have the eighth-highest strikeout rate versus right-handers over the last three weeks (23.1%), and deGrom has recorded at least six punch-outs in four straight starts, including seven K's in seven innings when he faced the O's last week. He owns 94 strikeouts in 95.1 innings this season—essentially a whiff per frame. Although his home K-rate sits at 20.9% compared to 32.5% on the road, the matchup's swing-and-miss profile plus deGrom's recent form push the tout to project another 6-plus-strikeout night, making the over on his K prop an actionable wager.

It's The Final Round highlighted Marcus Semien as a steady hits-prop option versus Charlie Morton. The second baseman owns a 3-for-10 lifetime line (.300) against Morton and is in form, collecting knocks in 7 of his last 10 games and 17 of his last 20. The tout’s model requires both a .300+ historical average and recent heat, and Semien checks both boxes, making him a plug-and-play ‘record a hit’ piece for parlays.

The Bettor Mark advised taking the Orioles at –110 on the moneyline because Patrick Corbin’s early-season bounce-back is officially unraveling. Mark noted that Corbin has surrendered a .277 opponents’ batting average during June—nearly 40 points higher than his April/May mark—and is getting barreled more frequently while failing to work deep (no start longer than 5.0 IP in three straight outings). His most recent turn saw nine hits and three earned runs allowed to Baltimore despite the Birds sitting middle-of-the-pack in June wRC+. Mark expects that regression to continue in hitter-friendly Globe Life Field, especially with Baltimore’s bats heating up after a 7-3 run that featured four games of 5-plus runs. With Texas still missing key bullpen pieces and Trevor Rogers providing a stable five-and-fly opposite Corbin, Mark labeled Orioles ML his second official best bet of the slate.

Dylan Rockford laid –110 with the Rangers behind Patrick Corbin, pricing Texas closer to –130. Corbin was rocked in Baltimore last week, but Rockford chalked that up to road woes; at Globe Life he has been serviceable with a sub-4 ERA. Texas, seven games over .500 at home, is finally piecing together late-inning wins as the bullpen has stabilized. Rockford added that Baltimore is still below .500 on the road and ranks near the bottom of the league in wRC+ versus lefties. Given the venue shift, bullpen edge, and favorable price, he sees value backing Corbin and Texas.

Although less confident than with Rogers, Razzle labeled Patrick Corbin a viable tournament punt. Corbin has hit his 5.5 K-prop in two of his last three and owns a 3.48 ERA at home, where he’s yielded only 12 HR across 76 innings. Baltimore’s lineup traditionally weakens versus lefties, so Razzle will sprinkle Corbin as an SP2 in large-field GPPs while acknowledging the floor is low.

Bill Harrelson likes Josh Smith to go over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Smith has hit this mark in eight of his last ten and in both games of the current series with Seattle, posting 4 and 2 H+R+RBI. He is 15-for-20 (75%) over the last three weeks and 9-for-11 in recent head-to-head meetings with the Mariners. While his season-long rate lags, Harrelson argued that Smith’s current form, 4.6 plate appearances per game, and favorable splits justify the play. Against Luis Castillo he is 3-for-7 (.429) lifetime, and he owns a .288 average versus righties compared to .279 overall. Harrelson expects sportsbooks to open the Over around –125/–130, signaling value before the price moves.

Jay Yang advised taking the Rangers +1.5 runs on the run line in Saturday’s matchup with Seattle. Yang acknowledged that the Mariners have dominated the season series 5-1, including recent 8-1 and 13-1 blowouts, but framed that dominance as the very reason Texas should be highly motivated in this "revenge spot" at home. He noted both starting pitchers are trending up: Bryce Miller Wu (after three average outings) and Kumar Rocker (who has looked sharper in his last two starts while adjusting to MLB hitters). On paper Wu holds the stronger peripherals, yet Yang believes Rocker’s improvement plus the Rangers’ revenge angle, recent series wins over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and home-field advantage make the +1.5 run cushion attractive. He stressed that he balances historical data with current form, and in this case the situational edge (motivation, recent pitching bounce-backs, and being at Globe Life Field) outweighs Seattle’s statistical edge, making the Rangers the side to bet.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Texas on the money line, noting Nathan Eovaldi’s dominant 73-10 K/BB ratio and .185 BAA at Globe Life Field and the Rangers’ uptick in power (1.4 HR per game last seven home dates). Seattle strikes out 25% of the time versus righties and faces a pitcher who has limited all but one opponent to two earned runs or fewer. Texas historically hits better at home (110 wRC+ vs 97 on road) and owns the fifth-best bullpen ERA, giving them an edge if Eovaldi’s pitch count is monitored. With Logan Gilbert likely to keep the Mariners in check but little run support behind him, the tout labeled Rangers ML the play.

Even without a posted line, Kenny G said he expects to back Texas behind Jacob deGrom. The right-hander is 7-2 with a 2.24 ERA and has allowed only five earned runs over his last four starts while the Rangers have gone 4-0 in that span. DeGrom hands the ball to a bullpen Kenny trusts, whereas Baltimore counters with rookie Brandon Young (0-1, 6.23 ERA) who has yet to complete five innings and would expose a shaky Orioles relief corps sporting a 4.47 ERA. Neither offense is clicking—Texas ranks 26th in runs and 28th in batting average, Baltimore sits 23rd in both runs and OBP—but Kenny likes the Rangers’ edge on the mound so much that he plans to play them unless the price is prohibitive once numbers open.

Malcom Bamford said he is ready to back Nathan Eovaldi in his first start since May 27, noting the right-hander had been “one of the very best in MLB” before the minor setback. Bamford is not worried about rust because the injury wasn’t structural and expects Eovaldi to look like the 2.68-ERA version we saw pre-IL. He contrasted that with Charlie Morton, calling him an autofade for 10 straight weeks and stating that a brief two-start upswing won’t change his opinion. Bamford therefore expects bookmakers to shade the price toward Baltimore (Morton’s club in the pod’s mix-up) and sees value if Texas is anything better than –130.

Eric Lindquist said Corey Seeger finally profiles as a worthwhile home-run ticket again Tuesday. Seeger’s season-long Statcast page has scared him off — an 11.4-degree launch angle (down from 13.5° in 2023) and a strike-out rate up roughly 2–2.5 percentage points — but Lindquist thinks the weather turns the math. Forecasts call for mid-90s heat and heavy humidity at Camden Yards, which historically adds 10–12 ft of carry. Facing a right-hander he expects to live in the zone, Lindquist believes any plus-450 or better HR number is live because one squared-up ball is all that’s needed. He classifies it as a “lean,” but says Seeger’s combination of 50% hard-hit rate since coming off the IL, Baltimore’s small RF porch, and guaranteed ninth-inning ABs make this the first Seeger bomb he’s willing to sprinkle on since April.

Guy Boston Sports said the Rangers are the side to back at plus money because of several matchup edges. Patrick Corbin may be merely league-average, but he at least has a normal routine and can give Bruce Bochy five innings, while Trevor Rogers has only two big-league starts under his belt and cratered against Tampa. The Orioles bullpen owns a bottom-10 ERA, whereas Texas is closer to mid-pack. At the plate, Texas has a 114 wRC+ versus lefties on the year and Baltimore has quietly flipped the script by posting a better wRC+ against southpaws than righties the last 30 days. With neither lineup consistent, volatility is high, but the Rangers check the boxes of superior ‘pen, more established starter and platoon advantage against Rogers. He leaned to the full-game over 9.5 for the same reasons, yet made the moneyline his preferred play given the pricing.

For his first official play, Lindquist locked in Under 9.5 runs in Marlins-Nationals behind lefties Patrick Corbin and Trevor Rogers. He praised Corbin’s renaissance—cutting his expected ERA to 4.33 after four straight seasons north of 5.50—and argued that Nationals Park suppresses right-handed power, the main avenue of scoring for both clubs. Rogers is likely on a 4-5 inning plan before Miami’s above-average bullpen (3.55 ERA) takes over, further limiting damage. With two southpaws neutralizing hitters’ platoon edges and a weather forecast under 80°F, Lindquist labeled 9.5 "a huge number" and would play the under down to 9.

Dylan Rockford said the Rangers are worth a money-line stab as underdogs in Baltimore. His two main angles: Patrick Corbin has been serviceable (3.91 ERA noted earlier in the show) while the Orioles remain a bottom-five lineup against left-handed pitching. On the other side, Baltimore turns to Trevor Rogers, who has only two big-league starts after posting a 0-3 record and 5.51 ERA in Triple-A. Rockford wants more evidence before trusting Rogers and pointed out that his most recent minor-league outing was six-plus innings with five earned runs. With the Orioles missing Adley Rutschman and forced to start third-string catcher Gary Sanchez, Rockford believes Texas can steal this one and prefers the plus-money price on the Rangers’ money line.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Texas on the moneyline, highlighting edges in the bullpen and lineup. Ranger relievers sit fourth in MLB with a 3.30 ERA, while Pittsburgh’s pen ranks 17th at 4.10. Over the last 13 games Texas is plating 5.0 runs per outing compared to the Pirates’ meager 3.07 over their previous 14. Texas has taken five of the last six head-to-head matchups. With postseason urgency and Pittsburgh buried in the NL Central, the tout viewed the Rangers as the clear side.

Malcolm Bamford echoed Reichel’s angle, calling the first-five under his top pick. He praised deGrom’s continued brilliance (2.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) and pointed out that Burrows’ strikeout stuff keeps him competitive despite shorter outings. Offensively the clubs combine for just 6.8 runs per game and neither hits much above .230. With two struggling lineups and two in-form starters, he expects a low-scoring first half, projecting four runs or fewer before the bullpens enter.

Reichel likes the first-five innings under when Jacob deGrom squares off with Mike Burrows. DeGrom sports a 2.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and even on the road has been dominant, while Burrows has surrendered just three total runs across his last three starts. Pittsburgh’s offense is bottom-five in most scoring metrics and Texas averages only 3.6 runs away from Arlington. With both pitchers unlikely to work deep, Reichel wants to isolate the starters, playing the F5 under before bullpens muddy the waters.

Reichel likes the first-five innings under when Jacob deGrom squares off with Mike Burrows. DeGrom sports a 2.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and even on the road has been dominant, while Burrows has surrendered just three total runs across his last three starts. Pittsburgh’s offense is bottom-five in most scoring metrics and Texas averages only 3.6 runs away from Arlington. With both pitchers unlikely to work deep, Reichel wants to isolate the starters, playing the F5 under before bullpens muddy the waters.

Matt Perrault said Jacob deGrom’s underlying numbers point to another shutdown outing and bet the Pirates’ team-total under 2.5 runs at +122. DeGrom owns a 2.86 ERA on the road and is holding opponents to a .186 average, surrendering only nine earned runs in 28.1 road innings. Pittsburgh is dead-last in MLB scoring and has fallen under 2.5 runs in seven of its last eight games, posting run totals of 2-1-2-3-2-(8) during that stretch. Perrault thinks DeGrom’s swing-and-miss stuff plus the Pirates’ anemic bats create a strong correlation play even though Rangers ML is –190, making the plus-money team-total under the better value.

Just A Bet Outside hammered the Pirates team-total under 5.5, hanging his hat on Jacob deGrom’s dominance and Pittsburgh’s limited ceiling. The Bucs have stayed below six runs in 66 of 76 games (87%), and now they draw deGrom’s 2.19 ERA and 12-of-14 streak of allowing two or fewer earned. The overall game total is just 7.5, Texas’ bullpen has quietly rounded into mid-pack form, and the park offers no weather boost. The host called six runs ‘borderline impossible’ here and locked the under in as the safety valve leg of his three-team parlay.

Just A Bet Outside said Jacob deGrom’s strikeout prop is worth attacking because everything lines up for a ceiling game. Pittsburgh owns the 5th-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (23.9%), and deGrom’s own swing-and-miss profile spikes on the road – a massive 33.9% strikeout rate away from Arlington compared to just 20.9% at home. The ace has piled up 80 punch-outs in 82.1 innings despite a few starts where Texas let him cruise, and he has fanned left-handed bats at a 29.5% clip, an important note with the Pirates running out multiple lefties. With deGrom limiting opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 straight starts, volume should follow if his pitch count is normal. The host framed it as both a DFS anchor play and a spot to bet the over on his K prop.

Cash Out Sports Picks made Texas his best side of the day. Pittsburgh must fly home after a Thursday double-header and immediately face Jacob deGrom, who owns a 2.19 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts across 82 1/3 innings. Road splits are equally nasty: 2.86 ERA, .186 BAA in 28.1 IP. The Pirates’ offense has cratered—last in the NL Central and generating little power—while scheduled starter Josh Furrows brings a hittable 4.24 ERA and .267 opponent average. With the Rangers desperate to stop a mini-skid and still sporting the more explosive lineup, the tout advised laying the juice on Texas money-line.

Just A Bet Outside wagered on Josh Smith to record at least one hit (paired in a parlay but viable solo) because the Rangers’ leadoff man is scorching. Smith owns a .377 average in June, has one-plus hit in 9 of his last 10 games and two-plus in 6 of 7. He is slashing .341/.400/.505 at Globe Life Field compared to .250 on the road. Seth Lugo is the target: his strikeout rate has dipped below average, he permits a .260 average and .467 slugging to left-handed hitters (Smith bats left), and carries a 4.07 road ERA with .495 SLG allowed. Given Smith’s contact profile and Lugo’s platoon issues, the tout called the minus-190 hit prop mispriced and a core piece for DFS cash-game stability.

B Wade Picks also grabbed Josh Smith over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at even money. Smith has smashed this mark in seven straight, averaging nearly four combined H/R/RBI over that stretch. Though he has never faced Seth Lugo, Smith owns a .304 average against right-handed pitching this season and .288 overall. Wade is effectively doubling down on a Texas lineup he expects to stay hot, pairing Smith with Semien in his multi-leg slip.

B Wade Picks backed Marcus Semien over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at even money. Semien has cashed this line in nine of his last 10 games after finally regaining his swing during the Rangers’ recent offensive surge against Washington. Because his early season numbers were awful (35 % hit rate year-to-date), books have not adjusted. Wade notes Seth Lugo’s 2024 ERA and WHIP remain solid but the right-hander’s underlying metrics have slid from last year, making this a value spot to ride Semien’s form while it lasts.

JDBetsHQ fired on Rangers –1.5 despite the –165 juice, calling it 'Texas by 30.' Chicago is treating the day as a bullpen game with rookie Mike Vasil projected for only 3 innings, and that unit has coughed up runs in every recent multi-inning assignment. On the other side, Jacob deGrom has given up two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts and owns a 1.5 ERA in that span. Spreadsheet metrics show Texas green across scoring, average and hard-hit categories while Chicago sits red in the same columns. With the Rangers’ potent bats facing a suspect relief carousel and deGrom silencing a bottom-five lineup, he expects an easy multi-run margin and is comfortable paying up for the spread.

B Wade is fading Corey Seager under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs until the star shows signs of life. Since coming off the IL, Seager has cashed this line once in 12 games—and that lone hit came in a 16-run outburst where everybody else feasted. Texas hung 16 again Thursday and Seager still went 0-for. Friday he faces Adrian Hauser, cruising with a sub-1.50 ERA and ~1.00 WHIP. Given Seager’s ice-cold bat and a stingy opponent, Wade sees no reason to stop shorting him.

It’s The Final Round called Adolis Garcia another Ranger worth considering against Bailey Ober. Garcia has three hits in six career at-bats (.500) versus the Minnesota righty and, like teammate Semien, has produced at least one knock in eight of his last ten contests. The analyst suggested his hit or total bases props for bettors seeking an additional angle on the small slate.

It’s The Final Round flagged Marcus Semien as a worthwhile one-off prop play thanks to his success versus Bailey Ober. Semien owns a 4-for-8 line (.500) lifetime against the Twins’ right-hander and has recorded at least one hit in eight of his last ten overall games. Those trends make his "to record a hit" or total bases props attractive on a thin Thursday slate.

Just A Bet Outside suggested backing Marcus Semien’s hits prop despite the overall under lean in Twins-Rangers. Semien has at least one hit in eight of his last ten games and multiple hits in five of those. He owns a 7-for-13 line with two homers against Bailey Ober, indicating he sees the ball well out of Ober’s hand. Even with cooler temps, the host thinks Semien’s recent swing changes and strong BvP justify a 1+ hit wager or DFS exposure.

Kenny G grabbed the Rangers at +110, arguing that Jack Leiter’s current form easily outweighs any home-field edge for Minnesota. The rookie right-hander owns a 3.48 ERA and has strung together five straight quality outings, including 5.0 IP/1 ER against Tampa Bay and 5.2 IP/0 ER versus St. Louis. By contrast, David Festa carries a 5.40 ERA through four big-league starts and was tagged by Oakland for five runs in his last outing. Texas’ bullpen (3.56 ERA) is quietly top-10, whereas the Twins’ pen is similar at 3.32 but will likely be asked to cover more innings if Festa exits early. Kenny acknowledged the Rangers’ bottom-three offense (28th in runs, 29th AVG) but noted they just erupted for 16 in game one and only need modest support for Leiter. Minnesota’s bats are mediocre (17th runs) and have hovered around four runs a night. Even with the Rangers just 11-22 away from Arlington, Kenny sees the pitching mismatch and plus money as too good to pass up, projecting a 4-3 Texas win.

Chris Ruffolo said the plus-money Rangers are the side on Wednesday because Jack Leiter has quietly strung together five straight starts of three earned runs or fewer (2.20 ERA, 6.0 K per outing), including five innings of one-run ball at hitter-friendly Steinbrenner Field last time out. He acknowledged Leiter’s 4.22 FIP hints at some luck, but pointed to the rookie’s road splits—a 3.42 ERA and .174 opponent average—as proof he is handling away environments well. Ruffolo expects Texas’ boom-or-bust lineup to find the ‘boom’ against rookie David Festa, who just surrendered eight runs and three homers in 3.2 IP at Sacramento and is being thrust back into the Twins’ rotation. Minnesota’s bullpen remains talented yet streaky, while Texas’ relief corps has shown better recent form. With the Twins dropping four of their last five and the Rangers inconsistent offense due for one of its spike games, Ruffolo advised grabbing Texas on the moneyline at a plus price.

Razzle advised steering clear of Tyler Mahle even at a mid-range tag. Mahle’s early-season numbers have begun sliding: walks are climbing, strikeouts are dipping, and he’s been tagged in two of his last three outings. The 5.5 K prop is juiced to the under, reflecting that diminished swing-and-miss profile. With Texas’ offense finally showing signs of life and Mahle’s underlying metrics pointing toward regression, Razzle prefers other arms in this price zone.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Corey Seager under 0.5 runs in Tuesday’s matchup with Minnesota. Seager has failed to score in nine consecutive games and 13 of his last 20. On the season he has remained scoreless in 24 of 35 contests (4.1 plate-appearance average). In last August’s series with the Twins he stayed under in two of three games. Sportsbooks are hanging the under at roughly –130, which Harrelson interprets as a clear indicator that the market expects his run drought to continue.