He also played the UNDER in Oakland-Toronto. The Jays have managed just four runs in five games, going under in three of Berrios’ last five starts, while the A’s scored only four combined in their last two. Berrios historically pitches better at night in this park and Oakland strikes out at one of MLB’s highest clips. With both offenses sputtering and each bullpen quietly ranking top-10 in K-rate, he forecasted another low-run outing.

Scott Reichel advised betting Toronto –1.5 at +145 because Oakland has entered full free-fall. Since May 13 the A’s are 1-11 with nine losses coming by multiple runs and a –47 run differential. Their staff owns a 6.22 ERA during that stretch, and Thursday projects as a bullpen day with Jacob Lopez opening (career 5.10 xFIP) before handing it off to the league’s third-worst relief unit (4.91 ERA). Reichel called Jose Berrios merely "fine" (4.22 ERA, 3.98 xFIP) but good enough against a lineup slashing .192/.268/.299 over the last two weeks. He set the fair price at –175 ML / –105 RL and therefore sees value riding a comfortable Jays cushion.

Malcolm Bamford targeted the first-five innings under once books finally post a number, projecting 4.5 as playable. He expects only 3–4 innings from Eric Lauer—who has allowed two or fewer runs in every appearance—and trusts Toronto’s top-10 bullpen to bridge the gap. On the other side, Tyler Mahle has been lights out (1.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, Rangers 9-2 to the under in his starts), and Texas owns a bottom-five wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. The Blue Jays are 23-17 to the under against righties, so Bamford anticipates both offenses sleepwalking through the first half of the game, calling a 2-1 type score through five.

Peterson fired on Over 7.5 (projected 8.3). Toronto’s Bowden Francis leads MLB with 15 home runs allowed while sporting a 5.54 ERA and ghastly 6.50 FIP. Texas ace Nathan Eovaldi has been lights-out (1.60 ERA, 0.5 HR/9), but the Rangers’ bullpen ranks 19th with a 4.17 ERA and could leak late runs. Toronto’s pen is only middling (3.71 ERA). The combination of a homer-prone starter and two average relief corps convinced Peterson the market total is too low.

Lonte Smith recommended a full-game under 7.5 in Toronto–Texas, noting the perfect storm of an elite arm and two sputtering lineups. Nathan Eovaldi owns a 1.60 ERA (fifth-best in MLB) and league-leading 0.79 WHIP, surrendering only three total earned runs across his past six starts. Meanwhile, Texas has failed to clear three runs in seven of its last ten and was outscored 17-11 by the White Sox on a 1-5 road trip. Opposing opener-turned-starter Bowden Francis is shaky—15 homers allowed already and four-plus earned in three of his last five—yet routinely leaves before the sixth, allowing Bruce Bochy to shorten the game with his rested high-leverage bullpen. Smith projected a 3-1 or 2-1 finish and would only lean Rangers money-line if forced, preferring the total as the primary wager.

Malcolm Bamford isolated Toronto’s lineup, betting a Blue Jays team-total under (expected 3.0) rather than laying –165 with Texas. He trusts Nathan Eovaldi—one earned run or fewer in six straight and a 33/6 K/BB over that span—to keep Toronto quiet, especially at Globe Life Park where Texas is 17-10. Bamford added that Bowden Francis’ own volatility (five of six starts failing to reach the sixth inning) could shorten the game and keep scoring chances scarce on both sides. He envisions a 2-1 or 3-1 Rangers victory with the Jays stuck on two runs or fewer.

The tout flagged Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for props against Nathan Eovaldi after a ridiculous 5-for-7 (.714) history that already includes a homer. Guerrero has collected hits in 22 of his last 26 games, so the combination of sustained form and pitcher ownership makes him a strong over-hits or total-bases play.

Just A Bet Outside pointed to Bo Bichette (8-for-25), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (10-for-23) and Alejandro Kirk (6-for-10) all sporting strong career numbers against Nathan Eovaldi. Even though Eovaldi has been in excellent form, the trio’s combined .408 average and two homers suggest leaning toward Blue Jays hit, total bases, or DFS exposure on Tuesday.

Eric Pathi said to back the Toronto Blue Jays again at +140 on the moneyline in Arlington. His angle is simple: when an underdog cashes on the road (Toronto won 2-1 on Memorial Day) and the books still hang another sizeable plus price the very next day, it creates what he calls a high-value repeat spot. Pathi noted that oddsmakers have not adjusted despite Toronto having already proved they can beat Texas in this park, so he sees no reason to walk away from the same matchup while the edge remains. He labeled it his complimentary play of the day for straight bettors looking for a live dog.

Cash Out Sports Picks is grabbing plus-money with Toronto. Texas has dropped seven of eight and sits 28th in scoring (3.33 RPG). Although Nathan Eovaldi owns a sparkling 1.60 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, the current Blue Jays roster holds a strong career slash line versus him over 129 ABs. If Toronto scratches out a few early runs and forces the Rangers’ 18th-ranked bullpen (4.08 ERA) into the game, the tout believes the Jays take it outright—no interest in laying –170 with a cold favorite.

Razzle labeled Kevin Gausman a volatile GPP option. His 5.5 K-prop (under juice) and +190 win odds trail deGrom, but Razzle highlighted Gausman’s spike-games: 9 Ks vs San Diego and 9 vs Cleveland despite both teams’ low K tendencies. On the road his HR rate drops, yet walks climb, creating a true feast-or-famine profile ideal for large-field tournaments when paired with Toronto bats for a win bonus hedge.

Jay Yang advised taking the Toronto Blue Jays at +150 on the moneyline against the Texas Rangers. Yang called Texas an "over-rated favorite," pointing out that both clubs are coming off series losses (Blue Jays were swept by the Rays, Rangers dropped two of three to the White Sox), so recent form does not justify the price. His model shows additional value because Kevin Gausman projects for a quality start while Toronto’s bullpen ranks 12th in MLB and should hold any late lead. Conversely, Yang expects a low-scoring game that minimizes Jacob deGrom’s edge and allows Toronto’s stronger relief corps to flip the script in the later innings. The wager is contingent on the listed pitchers—Gausman for Toronto and deGrom for Texas—remaining intact. All of those factors combine to make the Blue Jays a live underdog worth a unit at the current +150 number.

Peterson scooped +105 on Toronto because Chris Bassitt is in peak form—2.83 ERA with a 9.6 K/9 and stingy 1.7 BB/9. He fades Ryan Pepiot, whose 3.99 ERA is supported by an ugly 4.73 FIP and 1.6 HR/9. Toronto’s lineup ranks third in road wRC+ (3.6 runs per game) while Tampa Bay is 24th in home scoring. His fair line: Jays -104.

Kenny G recommended playing Under 9 in Blue Jays–Rays, highlighting a pair of underrated arms and two sputtering offenses. Chris Bassitt has strung together back-to-back scoreless outings, lowering his ERA to 2.83, and held Tampa to one run across 5.2 innings in their meeting 11 days ago. Ryan Pepiot countered with a quality start that day (6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K) and carries a solid 3.99 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate. Both bullpens are strengths—Toronto’s relief corps sports a 3.60 ERA, while Tampa’s sits at 3.34. Offensively, the Jays have scored 1, 1, 7 and 14 runs in their last four but rank only 20th in runs on the season; the Rays are even worse at 24th in runs and have posted 3, 3, 8, 3 across their last four. Tropicana Field has played slow (19-12-2 to the under at home), and both clubs trend under overall. Kenny said the side lean is Toronto but emphasized the under as the far superior wager and a candidate for his pinned comment.

For weekly leagues that lock on Monday, Maher advised choosing Bowden Francis over Nick Martinez as a two-start streamer. Francis draws Texas and then Oakland at home, which Maher grades as a far friendlier combo than Martinez’s book-end in Wrigley. Texas’ lineup has cratered to league-average production and Oakland owns the worst OPS in baseball. Even though Francis’ surface stats are ugly (6.86 ERA), Maher trusts the 25% K rate, 12% swinging-strike rate and two soft opponents to rack up strikeouts and at least one quality start. He would avoid Martinez’s second start on the road in Chicago altogether.

Romanelli took the Blue Jays moneyline, trusting Chris Bassitt’s strikeout-per-inning clip and solid control over Ryan Pepiot, who has been homer-prone at Steinbrenner Field. Toronto’s lineup owns one of May’s best right-on-right OPS figures, and Ron believes they’re slightly stronger than the slumping Rays offense. With Bassitt missing bats despite recent hard contact, he expects Toronto to scrape enough runs and lean on its bullpen for a road win.

Drew Martin recommended betting the under in Tampa, citing a pitching duel between Chris Bassitt and Ryan Pepiot plus two top-10 bullpens. Bassitt’s fastball velo, which dipped two outings ago, has popped back up and accompanied a 2.93 ERA and sparkling 61-to-11 K/BB ledger for the 36-year-old. Pepiot just held these same Jays to three earned over six frames with a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio and should benefit from facing them again in a cavernous minor-league-sized Tropicana alternate site. With both starters trending up and relief units graded inside Martin’s top 10, he projects a low-scoring game and is grabbing the under before first pitch.

JD Bets fired on the full-game OVER 9.5 runs in Blue Jays–Rays. He thinks both starters are ticking time-bombs. Shane Baz has coughed up 3-plus earned in four of his last five and sports a 4.92 ERA with a 10.4% walk rate. Toronto ranks 10th in both runs and RBIs, and several Jays own loud histories off Baz – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 4-for-10 while Bo Bichette and Daulton Varsho have each taken him deep. On the flip side, Tampa’s lineup owns Berrios: Randy Arozarena is 3-for-10 with three homers and Yandy Diaz is hitting .353 lifetime. Berrios’ fastball velo is down a tick this month, and the Rays have plated 5.1 runs per game during their current three-game win streak. JD noted the Trop’s roof could be closed thanks to the routine 3 p.m. Tampa storm, eliminating any wind that might suppress offense. With two shaky arms, two top-10 offenses, and a betting total still under double-digits, JD insisted the correct play is OVER 9.5 (would play to 10).

Kenny G leaned to the Blue Jays at +102, arguing Jose Berrios offers the far safer floor than Shane Baz right now. Baz owns a 5.33 ERA and has been torched in three straight outings—five earned in Miami, three runs and two homers to these same Jays, then a blow-up versus Philadelphia at Tropicana. Berrios is coming off one of his few rough turns but still holds the better xERA and a 50% ground-ball rate that travels well in a dome. Tampa’s offense ranks 24th in runs and 20th in batting average, while its pen (3.40 ERA) masks how hard it is for the lineup to build a cushion. Toronto is 11-9-1 to the under on the road, showing their games stay tight, and Kenny expects another low-scoring grind where one big Berrios inning could be enough. With Baz’s command in question and the Rays just 13-18 at home, Kenny sees value on the dog money line even if he stops short of a ‘pin comment’ play.

For the same game, Cash Out recommended playing the full-game over, noting that both starters have struggled mightily. Berrios owns a 4.13 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in May while Baz is 0-3 with a 9.61 ERA and a .361 opponent average across 19.2 innings. When they met on May 13 they combined to allow 20 runs, and neither bullpen offers much resistance with both units ranking in the bottom-10 in HR/9. Given Baz’s recent downturn and Berrios’ lifetime struggles versus Tampa, the tout expects another high-scoring contest and prefers the over to the under.

Scott Reichel circled the full-game Over 9 as his favorite angle in Toronto–Tampa. He reminded listeners that Shane Baz’s home ERA has ballooned to 6.03, and the right-hander has coughed up at least five runs in three of his last four starts – 21 earned runs total in that span. Jose Berrios is in better shape but still owns a 4.19 road ERA and surrendered five earned to these same Rays on May 13. Reichel added weather juice: first-pitch temps around 86 degrees with a breeze blowing out to right at Tropicana. With the roof expected open, he forecast “fireworks and a couple of cheap homers,” projecting both starters to be gone by the fifth and bullpens to shoulder four more innings. He advised grabbing the 9 before the market settles at 9.5.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Toronto on the moneyline, arguing that Jose Berrios has been a different pitcher on the road (2.70 ERA, 7 ER in 23.1 IP) and has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five outings. The tout contrasted that with Shane Baz’s brutal May (9.61 ERA, 21 ER, 30 H in 19.2 IP) and reminded listeners that their previous meeting produced an 11-9 game because Baz could not miss barrels and the Toronto bullpen collapsed late. Over the last week both offenses have identical 44 hits while the Jays have plated 29 runs to the Rays’ 22, so the deciding edge should come from the mound. Because the bullpens grade out nearly even and the market is still hanging even money, Cash Out labeled Toronto the better side play.

Lonte Smith went hunting for long-ball ladders and landed on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to leave the yard—sprinkling the 2+ HR prop as well. Smith loves the environment at an open-roof Tropicana with first-pitch temps near 86° and a steady breeze pushing to right, exactly where Guerrero’s opposite-field power plays. More importantly, Shane Baz’s four-seam has been a launching pad: eight home runs allowed in his last four starts and a .598 SLG against when the wind aids fly balls. Guerrero is heating up (four barrels and a 110-mph max exit velo in the last five games) and owns a .610 xSLG against baz/high-spin fastballs. Smith expects the Jays to keep trending up offensively and called Vlad a live bet for multiple bombs at juicy odds.

Lonte Smith grabbed Toronto at even money because he trusts Jose Berrios far more than the imploding Shane Baz. Smith rattled off Baz’s horror show: 19 earned runs in his last three home starts, eight homers allowed over his past four outings and a contact profile that gets crushed when the wind – as it will Saturday – pushes to right. Berrios isn’t perfect (slightly elevated contact rate, occasional walk spike) but has held opponents to two or fewer earned in three of his last four trips and sports a serviceable 4.19 road ERA. Smith noted the Blue Jays’ lineup is “finally trending up” and believes the breeze plus Baz’s four-seam location issues give Toronto an extra half-run of upside. He expects a 6-4 Jays win and is comfortable pairing the side with Reichel’s Over play.

Peterson paired his Rays play with Under 9.5 (handicapped total 8.4). Despite Baz’s rough month, Tropicana Field has played almost a half-run below league average the past three seasons. Tampa ranks 24th in home scoring (3.9 RPG) and prefers mixing-and-matching relievers by the sixth inning. On the other side, Berrios’ new two-seam/slider mix has held opponents to a .249 xwOBA the last five weeks. With the dome closed and two managers willing to hook starters quickly, Peterson projects limited big innings and expects no more than eight combined runs.

Kenny G recommended Under 9 in Blue Jays–Rays, calling the total a touch too high given the pitching profile. Eric Lauer has a 2.25 ERA in limited work and struck out five Tigers across three innings in his first start; Toronto’s bullpen, once a liability, is down to a 3.71 ERA. Drew Rasmussen counters with a 2.93 ERA and is fresh off six shutout frames against Miami. Tampa Bay’s relief crew remains elite at 3.41. Offensively, both clubs rank bottom-ten in runs (Toronto 21st, Tampa 23rd) and have inconsistent power strokes—each slots 20th or lower in slugging. Unders are already trending: the Jays are 11-9-1 to the under on the road, while the Rays are 17-12-1 to the under at The Trop. Kenny anticipates six solid innings from both starters, quality pen work, and only sporadic offense, making anything at 9 or better worth an under ticket.

Along with picking Toronto to win 5-4, Data Skrive called for the total to stay under 9. The recommendation leans on contrasting offensive trends: San Diego’s lineup has cooled to 4.3 runs per game during its current 3-7 skid and carries a 4.86 team ERA that encourages a quicker hook for a taxed bullpen. Toronto’s pitching staff has quietly posted a 3.30 ERA over its last 10 contests, helping the under cash in four of those games. Even though the clubs combine for 9.8 runs per game in that stretch, the Jays’ improved run prevention and the Padres’ middling power (just 10 HR in their last 10) suggest limited crooked innings. With both teams’ implied win probabilities near 50-50, Data Skrive expects a tightly played matinee that finishes on eight runs or fewer, making the Under 9 a viable bet.

Data Skrive projected a 5-4 Toronto win despite the Jays opening as +101 underdogs. The model gave San Diego only a 51% win probability, barely better than a coin flip, yet the market is pricing them at a 54.5% implied chance at –120. Toronto, meanwhile, has thrived in this role, winning 14 of 28 underdog spots overall and 10 of 18 when listed at +101 or longer (55.6%). Recent form tilts the edge further: the Jays are 6-4 over their last 10 with a 5.5 run scoring average, 17 homers and a 3.30 staff ERA, while the Padres are just 3-7 as favorites in that span, scoring 4.3 runs per game with a bloated 4.86 ERA. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.389 OBP) and Bo Bichette (.288 AVG, team-high 24 RBI) pacing a hot lineup and the bullpen holding opponents to 8.5 K/9 the last ten outings, Data Skrive argued the plus money tag on Toronto is mis-priced and worth a straight moneyline play.

Rockford made Toronto a –130 favorite with Kevin Gausman on the mound and will fire on the Blue Jays if the market re-opens lighter than that. He admitted Gausman’s form has been volatile (six scoreless vs Cleveland but six earned in each of his last two) yet trusts the right-hander at Rogers Centre where he owns a 3.80 ERA. San Diego counters with Randy Vasquez, who has allowed only four earned in his last 17 innings but still carries shaky road splits and a history of control problems. The bigger catalyst is a punch-less Padres lineup that managed just three total runs in a weekend sweep by Seattle and now averages 3.9 per game. Rockford power-rated the total at 8.4, so he will also grab an under if books hang 8.5 or 9, but the primary play is Toronto moneyline up to –130.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 2-for-3 (.667) off Randy Vasquez and has hits in 17 of his last 19 overall, making him another strong single-prop or parlay cog according to the host.

The tout sided with the UNDER, projecting a tight 4-2 or 4-3 type outcome. Toronto has stayed under in 22 of 46 games, San Diego in 25, and neither lineup is erupting lately. Vasquez’s steady command should keep the Jays in check, while Gausman—even in poor form—typically limits blow-ups enough to avoid a track meet. Historical scoring patterns for both clubs reinforce a lower-run environment.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Padres ML, fading Kevin Gausman’s brutal form. Gausman has surrendered 19 runs in his last 19.2 innings, including 17 hits over his most recent 11 IP. Conversely, rookie Vasquez has limited foes to four runs on 16 hits across 17 innings, and San Diego is 3-0 in his May starts. After being swept in Seattle the Padres’ formidable lineup is "due for a breakout," and public sentiment has started to swing their way. The tout likes the value in a classic get-right game north of the border.

Zerillo makes Toronto –110 behind Chris Bassitt’s rejuvenated arsenal and grabbed the Jays at +110, playable to even money. Bassitt has slashed his walk rate in half (4.5 %), posted a career-best 25 % strikeout rate, and coaxed chases 33 % of the time thanks to sharper slider locations. Meanwhile, San Diego’s lineup drops nearly 30 points of wRC+ against right-handers compared to lefties, and the Friars’ middle relief still ranks bottom-10 in both WHIP and xFIP. With projected pick-’em odds, Zerillo sees any plus-price as automatic value on Toronto.

Razzle put Chris Bassitt in his short list despite the Padres’ right-handed thump. Bassitt’s strikeout rate has climbed in 2025 and he averages nearly 21 DK points at Rogers Centre. His 4.5 K-prop is a pick’em, but a +220 Win bonus and a neutral eight-run total give him a path to 20+ raw points at a mid-range salary. Razzle views Bassitt as a stability play when pairing with ceiling arms like Skubal or Luzardo.

Sean Zerillo reiterated his interest in the Blue Jays moneyline but sharpened the angle: play the full game at even money or better rather than chasing a live price or the first-five inning line. Zerillo makes the full-game number Toronto –110 while his first-five projection is a true pick’em, so the larger theoretical edge sits after the bullpens get involved. He concedes Dylan Cease has rediscovered ace form (19 strikeouts over his last two starts after a nine-run outlier) but believes San Diego’s A-relievers create a bigger gap versus Toronto’s pen than Cease does versus a resurgent Chris Bassitt. Bassitt’s profile supports the bet: walk rate chopped in half to 4.5 %, strikeout rate up to a career-best 25 %, outside-swing rate up to 33 % (career 25 %), swinging-strike rate up to 11 %, and his Location+ has climbed back to 105, correlating with a 3.2 expected ERA. With Bassitt pitching at a career peak and the Jays still catching plus prices, Zerillo is comfortable firing pre-game and would not delay for an in-game number that likely appears only once San Diego’s elite bullpen has the leverage.

Guy Boston recommended playing George Springer UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (at plus money) against Dylan Cease. Springer owns a .365 season-long wOBA that plummets to .225 against sliders and he carries a 40% strike-out rate versus that pitch. Cease throws sliders 39% of the time, ranking top-10 in swinging-strike rate with the offering. Toronto collectively ranks 30th in run value against sliders, meaning Springer is unlikely to get many cushion fastballs in hitter’s counts. Boston added that Springer’s platoon splits are worse against right-handed power arms and that the wind is forecast to knock down fly balls at Rogers Centre tonight. With Cease projected for six innings and San Diego sporting a rested, high-strikeout bullpen, Boston doubts Springer sees enough quality contact to clear the 1.5 threshold.

Malcom Bamford expects Toronto to be a short home favorite once lines drop and plans to back the Blue Jays on the moneyline. His case: Chris Bassitt owns a 2.05 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP at Rogers Centre, while San Diego is just 2-4 in its last six and managed one run or fewer in three straight games. The Padres’ bullpen disaster (ERA pushing 10) amplifies their current wobble. Even though Dylan Cease has looked better, Bamford notes Toronto’s relievers have actually out-pitched their rotation recently, giving him more trust in the Jays to win late if necessary. Until San Diego’s lineup and bullpen steady, he is happy to fade them with Bassitt dealing in his home digs.

Mac Douglass endorsed taking the Blue Jays at +1.5 runs (-190) against Detroit after Dimers’ predictive model spit out a 68.4% win probability and a 2.9% long-term edge over the listed price. The pick is built on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations that factor in projected starting-pitcher matchups, bullpen usage, park factors at Rogers Centre, and each lineup’s weighted on-base averages versus right-handed pitching. Because the Tigers’ offense ranks bottom-five in runs per game on the road and Toronto’s pen owns the fifth-best ERA in May, the model expects a tight, low-scoring game where the extra run and a half becomes highly valuable. Douglass labeled it the highest-probability play on Sunday’s slate and a cornerstone wager for bettors seeking safe bankroll growth.

Francis bet Bowden Francis under 4.5 strikeouts. The right-hander has stayed below that number in three of his last five starts and averages just 73 pitches per outing. Detroit’s offense, fresh off a productive series in Boston, owns the seventh-lowest K-rate versus right-handed pitching (19.4%). With the Tigers making consistent contact and Toronto likely to keep Bowden Francis on a short leash, Brad expects four punch-outs or fewer.

Osborne played Toronto –0.5 on the first-five-innings run line (–120) against Tampa Bay. Over the past two weeks the Blue Jays rank 1st in OPS versus right-handed pitching, while the Rays sit 25th. Kevin Gausman owns a sparkling 2.00 ERA at Rogers Centre compared with a 5.27 mark on the road, and Jays hitters carry an .807 OPS in 49 career at-bats versus Tampa starter Zack Littell. Tampa’s bats have also slumped away from Tropicana Field (24th in road OPS over the last month). Osborne expects Toronto’s right-hand heavy lineup to give Gausman early support and cash the F5 run-line ticket before bullpens enter.

Gianni the Greek recommended laying a half-run with the Blue Jays in the first five innings. He pointed out that Kevin Gausman owns three quality starts in three home outings this season, while Tampa starter Aaron Luttrell sports a 5.2 FIP that ranks in the bottom 10 among qualified pitchers. Gianni expects Gausman’s strike-throwing and splitter usage to neutralize Tampa’s left-handed pop, giving Toronto an edge in the first half before bullpens become a factor.

Kody Malstrom recommended betting Under 0.5 runs in the first inning at -122 for Rays-Blue Jays. He highlighted Kevin Gausman’s return to form after last year’s shoulder woes: 3.28 FIP, 0.971 WHIP and fewer than one hit allowed per inning. Toronto’s defense helps, ranking top-15 in both Defensive Efficiency and Fielding Percentage. Tampa’s attack is a perfect matchup, sitting below league average in Contact Rate and OBP while Junior Caminero, Brandon Lowe and Chandler Simpson all sport sub-.750 OPS marks atop the order. Malstrom added that Zack Littell can hold up his end because the Jays’ lineup is similarly toothless—outside Vladimir Guerrero Jr., no top-of-order bat owns an OPS above .750 and the club languishes near the bottom in runs and RBIs. With the Rays defense ranking 4th in Defensive Efficiency to bail out Littell, he expects another NRFI cash.

The computer shows Toronto 5-4, recommending the Jays at ‑170 and Over 8 runs. Kevin Gausman’s strikeout stuff (10.5 K/9) is offset by a 1.36 HR/9 figure, while Rays starter Zack Littell brings a 4.40 ERA and 43% hard-hit rate. Both bullpens enter on short rest: Toronto used its top three relievers in consecutive games, and Tampa owns a 4.82 pen ERA in May. Rogers Centre has played 11% above league average for homers this season, and the model bakes in warm afternoon dome conditions to get the Over home 54% of the time. It gives Toronto a 63% chance to win outright.

Just A Bet Outside recommended backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record at least one hit (or folding him into a hit-parlay). Vlad is 14-for-15 in the hit column over his last 15 games and carries a .348 average over the past week. He is 3-for-5 lifetime versus Zack Littell, tonight’s probable starter, giving bettors an encouraging BvP sample on top of red-hot current form. With Littell sitting at a modest 20% strikeout rate and Guerrero sporting a 45% hard-hit rate over the last month, the tout expects Toronto’s star to extend the streak and views any price shorter than ‑210 for 1+ hit as playable in props or DFS cash-game exposure.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Toronto Blue Jays on the money line, leaning heavily on Kevin Gausman’s dominance at Rogers Centre. Gausman is 2-0 in three home starts with a microscopic 2.00 ERA, 19 strikeouts in 18 innings, and a .161 opponent batting average. The tout argued Tampa Bay’s lineup lacks consistent power, ranking middle-of-the-pack in AL scoring and sitting bottom-four in home runs. Zach Littell’s road profile (4.32 ERA, five homers allowed, only nine strikeouts in 25 IP) gives Toronto a clear pitching edge. With Bo Bichette getting on base at a .380 clip over the past two weeks and the Jays’ offense showing recent upticks, the host club was deemed superior across pitching, lineup momentum, and park familiarity.

Lindquist recommended a quarter-unit play on Daulton Varsho to homer at anything longer than +355 against Tampa Bay right-hander Zack Littell. Varsho carries a 57.1 % hard-hit rate, a 95.6 mph average exit velocity, and a 23-degree launch angle—an ideal power profile. Littell has already surrendered four homers to lefties in only 21 IP this season and six total long balls while sporting a 1.14 WHIP. Lindquist called the matchup “pure lefty power” and expects the Rogers Centre roof closed, enhancing carry. The market moved from +420 to +370 on similar spots Wednesday, so he advises locking it in early.

Daulton Varsho owns 5 homers in just 10 games since returning, a scorching 40% HR-per-game pace. FanDuel lists him at +400 (implied 20.0%) to leave the yard against Tampa Bay on May 15. Even acknowledging the small sample, the current rate doubles the break-even threshold, offering sizeable theoretical value for bettors willing to ride Varsho’s power surge.

Martin recommended Toronto –1 at –115, citing Kevin Gausman’s stark home/road split: a 2.00 ERA at Rogers Centre versus 5-plus on the road. He expects another strong outing against a Rays lineup he says has "cooled off" recently. Tampa starter Zack Littell has struggled in this park; his previous Toronto appearance lasted just 1.1 innings with three earned runs and more walks than strikeouts. Littell owns only 30 strikeouts in 47 innings overall. Martin believes the Jays own edges with the better starter, deeper lineup, and superior bullpen, but avoids a full 1.5-run line because the home club loses its final at-bat when leading.

Soni pegged Guerrero as an enticing +400 home-run play. Though the first baseman hasn’t erupted yet in 2025, he sports a .291 average, 93.0 mph average exit velocity, and 39.8 % hard-hit rate—signals the big fly is coming. Facing Rays starter Zack Littell, who lacks overpowering stuff, Soni views the long odds as a buy-low entry on Guerrero’s latent power.

Guy Boston circled Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs (−120) as his favorite way to attack Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot relies on a four-seam/change/slider mix for 82 % of his pitches, and Guerrero grades out plus vs all three offerings on Boston’s dashboard, posting a .315 AVG and .560 SLG against that exact mix this season. Pepiot’s fly-ball tendencies play into Vlad’s pull-side power in the dome, and Boston added that Toronto’s lineup construction should guarantee RBI chances with Bichette and Horwitz setting the table. Even though he leans to Tampa on the moneyline, Boston views Vlad’s prop as insulated from game result and expects at least a two-stat night in a lower-scoring environment.

Bryan Power laid the –145 (and warned it may close north of –160) on Toronto’s moneyline, citing a decisive starter mismatch. Chris Bassitt owns a 3.17 expected ERA and 3.42 FIP, numbers that Power believes better reflect his form than the recent surface runs allowed. Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot sits at a 4.43 xERA and 4.98 FIP, giving Toronto a full run of projected pitching advantage. While both bullpens blew up in Tuesday’s 11-9 circus, Power expects Bassitt to hand the Jays enough of a cushion that their shaky relief corps won’t matter. He views the line movement toward Toronto as further confirmation the pitching gap is being priced in.