Scott Reichel took James Wood to leave the yard against Brandon Pfaadt. The D-backs right-hander has served up five homers in his last three starts and at least one in three straight, while his four-seam has a .596 SLG against when elevated. Wood, meanwhile, owns a 46% hard-hit rate since his call-up and has already barreled four balls at 107 mph or harder. Chase Field ranks 6th in Baseball Savant’s HR park factor for left-handed batters, and the forecast calls for 10-mph breeze out to right-center. With Arizona’s bullpen sporting a 5.02 ERA over the past two weeks, Reichel expects Wood to see a couple of cracks at shaky relief as well. He likes Wood’s HR prop at anything +425 or better and calls him a strong one-off in DFS stacks built around the Nationals-D-backs shootout.

Scott Reichel played the full-game over 9, projecting a slugfest in Phoenix. Nationals rookie Michael Soroka has a 5.61 ERA, has yielded four homers in his last three starts, and Washington has dropped four of his five outings by multiple runs. Brandon Pfaadt’s recent regression is showing as well—three straight starts of 3+ earned—and he has been tagged five times over the fence in that span. Reichel pointed out that Washington’s offense has been buoyed by CJ Abrams and top prospect James Wood, while Arizona’s lineup still boasts top-10 hard-hit metrics even during its slide. Neither bullpen inspires confidence (both over 4.80 ERA in June), so Reichel forecast double-digit runs and would play the total up to 9.5 at even money.

Kenny G took a stab at Washington +164, calling the matchup with Arizona “pretty close to a coin flip” that the market is mis-pricing. He admitted Michael Soroka’s 5.61 ERA and the Nats’ horrific 6.08 bullpen ERA are red flags, but emphasized that Soroka is coming off his longest outing of the year (6 IP, 3 ER vs San Francisco) and that Arizona’s recent form is equally shaky. The Diamondbacks have dropped two of three to Pittsburgh, are on the verge of losing Game 1 against the Nats, and have scored just 1, 6, 8 and 5 runs over that Pirates set despite ranking fifth in runs and fourth in slugging on the season. Brandon Pfaadt owns a respectable 7-3 record with a 3.90 ERA, yet he has given up 3-4 runs in each of his last three starts and faces a Washington lineup that has quietly climbed to 12th in runs. With both bullpens unreliable and Arizona’s offense cooling, Kenny felt the plus-money underdog was the smarter play, reasoning, “If this really is a toss-up, I’ll happily pocket +164 every time.”

The Bettor Mark fired an official half-unit on the Nationals at +185, calling it the most mispriced number on Friday’s board. He trusts Jake Irvin more than the betting market does and thinks Arizona is entering a "fade territory" stretch despite Merrill Kelly’s solid surface stats (5–2, 3.52 ERA). Mark pointed to Washington’s right-hand-heavy lineup metrics—top-10 in wRC+ versus righties over the last 14 days—and noted that Chase Field’s humidor has played more neutral this season, which lessens Arizona’s usual home-field run suppression. He expects a competitive duel early but believes the Nats’ bullpen gives them a viable path to steal it late.

Lindquist bet OVER 9 in Washington–Arizona at –105. Nationals righty Jake Irvin is getting tattooed by left-handed power (46 % hard-hit, 12.3 % barrel, .512 xSLG) and offers little swing-and-miss. Merrill Kelly’s strike-out rate has fallen from 25.9 % to 22.7 % while allowing 45.6 % hard-hit contact and a 10 % barrel rate. Even with Chase Field’s roof likely closed, the desert heat plus two mediocre bullpens give him a 9.7 median run projection. He noted that if the roof surprisingly opens, the over only gains value.

Doubling down on Reichel’s angle, Lonte Smith will bet both the first-five and full-game moneylines on Washington provided he can get +130 to +150. Smith highlighted the Nats’ uptick—seven wins in their last ten and a 4-1 road stretch—and praised Irvin’s consistency: three consecutive quality starts, two runs or fewer allowed in three of five away from D.C. Arizona’s bullpen is the real target; the unit’s 6.00 ERA and .370 wOBA allowed over the past ten have turned close games into losses. While Smith respects Merril Kelly, he believes any Nationals lead after five forces Arizona to lean on that relief corps, a scenario that could blow up quickly. He also intends to sprinkle a Washington team-total Over 3.5, banking on late-inning fireworks against a gassed pen.

Scott Reichel plans to fire on Washington as soon as bookmakers hang a plus number, calling Arizona a bet-against team in an outright free fall. The Diamondbacks have dropped seven of eight and their bullpen owns a 5.90 ERA over the last ten games. Meanwhile the Nationals have won four of their last five on the road and already took two of three from Arizona in April. Reichel acknowledged Merrill Kelly’s steady run—two or fewer earned in seven of nine—but noted Jake Irvin has logged three straight quality starts and five of seven overall with two or fewer earned. Add in Arizona’s lineup batting under .230 during the skid, and Reichel projects a 5-3 Nats victory. His buy-point: Nationals moneyline at +130 or better, with a lean to the Nats team-total over to isolate Arizona’s shaky middle relief.

For the total, he played OVER. Ten of Seattle’s last 12 at T-Mobile have gone over, even with a half-run discount baked into numbers at the pitcher-friendly venue. The Mariners’ lineup is rolling, and Cash Out Sports Picks expects them to get to Gore, while Washington can scratch a few off Hancock, who owns a 1.65 WHIP at home. With both bullpens vulnerable in high-leverage spots and Seattle’s park factors already priced in, he projects plenty of offense.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted MacKenzie Gore as a prime strikeout play on the tiny five-game slate. Seattle has the 8th-highest K-rate against lefties over the past three weeks (25.5 %), and Gore is one of baseball’s premier swing-and-miss artists with 93 punch-outs in 62.1 innings. He has recorded seven or more Ks in eight of his last nine starts and still carries a gaudy 33.6 % K-rate on the road (39.6 % at home). Left-handed opponents fare even worse, whiffing at a staggering 42.5 % clip. With the Mariners striking out nearly once every four plate appearances and Gore’s pitch mix playing up against lefty-heavy lineups, the host projected him for 7–9 Ks and suggested targeting his over or escalator alt-lines in the betting market or locking him into DFS lineups as a high-ceiling option.

Dylan Rockford attacked Emerson Hancock directly, recommending Nationals team total Over 3.5 (–115) and a sprinkle on the first-five Over 4. Hancock has been shelled in Seattle—7, 6, and 3 earned runs in his three home outings—and owns a 46% hard-hit rate plus 10.8% walk rate versus left-handed bats. Washington profiles well: the Nats produce a .321 wOBA against righties compared to .286 vs southpaws, and they have the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate, a problem for Hancock’s limited swing-and-miss arsenal. Rockford added that T-Mobile Park’s marine layer dissipates in warmer late-May weather, giving the ball a bit more carry. He expects Washington to scratch four or five by the seventh inning.

Scott Reichel is betting Washington in the first five innings (–110) because he sees a massive starting-pitching edge. MacKenzie Gore has rediscovered his ceiling, striking out at least seven in four straight and allowing one run over six frames against San Francisco last time out. Emerson Hancock counters with a 6.04 season ERA and an ugly 12.34 ERA at T-Mobile Park, fueled by a .345 opponent average and 2.1 HR/9 at home. While Seattle has won six of Hancock’s last seven, Reichel credited that to run support and wants to remove the Mariners’ late bullpen advantage. He projects Washington leading after five roughly 60% of the time, implying –150 fair odds.

Eric Lindquist advised betting the Nationals at –104, arguing they should be favored because MacKenzie Gore is "exponentially better" than Seattle rookie Emerson Hancock. Gore brings a 27% strike-out rate that plays directly into Seattle’s whiff-heavy lineup, while Hancock owns a meager 15.7% K-rate and has struggled versus left-handed power. Lindquist believes the pitching gap outweighs any park or bullpen concerns and expects Washington’s lineup of lefties to create enough support for a road win.

Calling it his top play of the slate, Drew Martin grabbed Washington at even money behind left-hander MacKenzie Gore. Gore is fresh off six scoreless innings (2 H, 9 K) versus San Francisco and last year limited Seattle to one run over seven frames with eight strikeouts. The matchup is cushioned by Seattle’s documented struggles against lefties. On the flip side, rookie Emerson Hancock owns a brutal home profile: 24 hits and a 12-plus ERA in just 11 T-Mobile Park innings. Although the Nats sit 24-30 overall, Martin emphasized their improved form over the last 10 days and believes Gore’s pedigree (former No. 3 overall pick) gives Washington the mound edge. He recommended risking 100 to win 100 on the Nationals.

Despite T-Mobile’s 24th-ranked park factor, the tout likes the Over eight runs. Seattle games have reached eight or more in four of their last five, and Parker has surrendered 23 runs in his past five starts. Washington’s bats have hit righties well lately, and Evans’ 1.55 WHIP this month suggests traffic. Factor in a shaky Nats bullpen (1.61 WHIP) and Seattle’s own offense peaking at home, and Cash Out Sports Picks projects a total nearer to double-digits than the current line.

Kenny G is sprinkling Washington +130, arguing Logan Evans (the 23-year-old Seattle right-hander with a 3.33 ERA) is due for another let-down after alternating strong and shaky outings all season—his last start was the shaky one (6 IP, 4 ER at the White Sox). Mitchell Parker has been merely serviceable (4-3, 4.39 ERA), but the Nats are 3-2 in his last five turns and he faces a Seattle lineup that is starting to look like last year’s version: 21st in AVG and 12th in SLG despite ranking 10th in runs. Washington’s biggest flaw is a hideous 6.13 bullpen ERA, yet Kenny believes value lies in the plus price because Seattle’s offense has cooled, the Mariners are only 13-11 at home, and Parker can at least keep the game close through five. He mentioned first-five under 4.5 as a secondary angle given both offenses’ recent inconsistency (Nats’ last four: 2-3-0-8 runs, Mariners’ last four: 3-4-2-1), but his official lean is the Nationals moneyline, counting on regression from Evans and a few timely swings from C.J. Abrams and James Wood.

Eric Lindquist said the Nationals are worth a plus-money stab at +125 or better because Mitchell Parker profiles far better than the still-unconfirmed Logan Evans. Parker heads to the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball with Seattle’s lineup striking out 25.6% of the time versus southpaws, giving Lindquist confidence to sprinkle Parker strikeout overs once books open. By contrast, Evans has surrendered six earned runs to Texas, three to Toronto and four to the White Sox in his last three turns while allowing three home runs to Chicago despite frigid, pitcher-friendly weather. Lindquist worries about Evans’ five-day turn on short rest and his heavy hard-contact rate, noting that the top of Washington’s order is sneaky good now that James Wood is mashing. With Seattle’s offense historically weaker at home (park-adjusted), Lindquist makes Washington a slight favorite and is happy to lock the Nats’ moneyline anywhere north of +120.

Peterson bet Over 8 because both starters carry hidden warts: Robbie Ray’s glossy 2.67 ERA is offset by a 3.43 FIP and 4.3 BB/9, while Mike Soroka owns a 5.95 ERA and 1.8 HR/9. Washington’s bullpen is even worse at a 6.27 ERA (29th in MLB). He projected 8.7 runs and believes neither staff can stay off the barrels for nine innings.

Romanelli grabbed Washington on the moneyline, arguing Mike Soroka’s underlying improvements make him undervalued against Robbie Ray. Soroka owns an 8-to-4 K-BB ratio in his last start and just four walks across 20 IP this season after posting 44 walks in 79.2 IP last year. He faces a Giants lineup that is only league-average versus righties. Meanwhile, Ray’s expected metrics aren’t elite and the Nationals sit top-10 in May OPS vs lefties with a high walk rate and low strikeout rate, giving them a favorable offensive matchup.

Eric Pathy said his value play for Sunday is backing the Washington Nationals again at roughly +160. The Nationals cashed for him as underdogs on Saturday, and Pathy’s "automatic system play" calls for riding a team that wins outright as a dog if bookmakers leave them an underdog the next day. He noted Mike Soroka is on the mound for Washington opposite a pitcher he referred to as Ray and believes the plus-money price still offers value in a 1:35 p.m. Memorial Day matchup.

Bryan Power recommended the under 8.5 runs in Saturday’s Giants–Nationals matchup. He pointed to Washington getting blanked 4-0 in Friday’s series opener and facing San Francisco rookie left-hander Kyle Harrison, then highlighted that the Giants’ bullpen owns the lowest ERA in all of baseball. On the other side, San Francisco’s offense has failed to top four runs in six straight games, limiting the likelihood of a shoot-out. Power noted that the market has already juiced the under and warned he would not play it if the total drops below 8.5.

Marcus suggested using a Nationals mini-stack—headlined by James Wood ($5,200) and CJ Abrams ($5,500)—in tournaments. Giants opener Kyle Harrison is expected to work only a couple innings and has struggled with both walks and homers during his big-league sample. The short stint should expose San Francisco’s weak middle relief early, giving Washington’s young core multiple cracks at shaky pitching.

Smith argued that Washington deserves a look as home dogs. The Nationals have won four straight and plated five-plus runs in three in a row, while San Francisco has cooled off after its hot start and is just 5-4 over a nine-game homestand. Smith highlighted the Giants’ .220 batting average both on the road and versus left-handed pitching—bad news against Gore’s southpaw arsenal. If Gore can clean up recent walk issues and go deep enough to shorten the bullpen exposure, Smith believes the Nats are "feisty" and offer value.

JD Bets said to attack Mitchell Parker’s 2.5-earned-run prop, citing multiple red flags. Parker has been shelled for 6, 5, 4 and 4 earned runs in his last four outings and now draws an Atlanta lineup that sits sixth in hits, 11th in runs scored and fourth in walks. JD emphasized that this will be Parker’s second start against the Braves in less than two weeks, a situation that historically favors hitters because they have fresh looks at his release and pitch mix. With Spencer Strider returning from the IL on the other side, JD expects Atlanta to be aggressive early, force Parker into long counts, and plate at least three runs before the bullpen door opens. He wants the over 2.5 ER rather than a full game moneyline to isolate Parker’s vulnerability.

Boston again went back to the well on Josh Bell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Bell has cashed that under in seven of his last nine, owns just a .180 average versus right-handers this year, and draws Strider’s overpowering fastball/slider combo. After two outlier big games against Baltimore, Boston expects regression against a pitcher who holds lefties to a .257 wOBA and has generated a 21% swinging-strike rate on sliders alone. Bell’s projected slot in the order (clean-up) still leaves him vulnerable to pitch-around scenarios with runners on, further limiting counting stat upside.

Boston suggested playing Nathaniel Lowe under 0.5 singles at plus money. Lowe is batting just .227 on the season and struggles versus elite velocity. Strider’s slider, change and curve profile as his #2-#4 offerings, and left-handed hitters own a .188 batting average against those secondary pitches since 2023. With Strider striking out 38% of lefties and allowing only 0.56 singles per inning to that side, Boston doubts Lowe puts one in play cleanly enough to leg out a knock.

Malcom Bamford recommended bypassing any questions about Spencer Strider’s readiness and instead betting the Braves’ team-total Over. He noted Atlanta quietly owns the National League’s best record since April 19 and will now face Mitchell Parker, who has been ‘woeful,’ surrendering 21 earned runs across his last four starts. Bamford emphasized that taking the team-total isolates bettors from Strider’s hamstring status—Atlanta simply has to keep barreling Parker, whose walk rate has also ballooned. With the Braves lineup already rolling and the Nationals’ bullpen leaking runs, he expects Atlanta to cash its team-total regardless of how deep Strider goes.

Eric Pathi advised grabbing the Washington Nationals at +140 against the Orioles on 5/18/25. He invoked his "rule of 10" angle: Baltimore has dropped five straight yet is still a hefty –166 favorite behind starter "Effing" (he never clarified, presumably Dean Kremer or another back-end arm) while Washington counters with Michael Soroka. Pathi believes bettors should attack a team stuck in a losing streak only when the market keeps pricing them as a big favorite (over 60–50 cents). In his view the Orioles’ brand name is inflating the line and the value sits squarely on the Nationals as live underdogs.

Drew Martin backed the Nationals at +140 in the Beltway finale, laying out several edges. Michael Soroka, though limited to roughly five-inning stints, owns a sub-4.00 FIP across 14 innings and faces an Orioles offense ranking bottom-10 both season-long and over the past week by wRC+. Baltimore is just 15-28 overall, 8-13 at Camden Yards and dragging a ‑75 run differential. Zach Eflin’s fastball has lost a tick, and the O’s bullpen has been, in Martin’s words, "awful." Conversely, Washington has taken the first two games, scoring 14 runs and bringing the hotter lineup. Given the superior current form and bullpen edge, Martin felt the dog price was too large and labeled Nationals +140 his preferred way to open Sunday’s card.

JD Bets took MacKenzie Gore to clear his 6.5-strikeout prop against Baltimore. Gore has morphed into a “strikeout machine,” averaging 8.3 Ks per start on the season and 8.6 over his last five. He already fanned eight Orioles in their previous meeting this year, and Baltimore currently sits 22nd in strikeout rate (10.4 per game over the last 10). The line opened at 6.5 with modest juice, offering a full K of cushion versus Gore’s recent baseline. JD acknowledged a 70-plus percent chance of rain in the first inning, but noted the worst storms are projected before or right at first pitch, meaning a pre-game delay would actually protect the bet from an in-game shutdown that could knock Gore out early. Weather risk acknowledged, he still likes the over given the matchup and Gore’s form.

Scott Reichel flagged James Wood’s home-run prop as his favorite bet in the O’s–Nats matchup. Wood already has 11 long balls on the season and owns a .286 average with pop against left-handers, so he will not mind if Baltimore sticks with southpaw Cade Povich, who has been tagged for seven homers in limited big-league work. Reichel noted that original starter Kyle Gibson is no safer—he, too, has surrendered seven bombs and sports a double-digit ERA. Either way, Reichel expects a homer-friendly matchup for Wood and is shopping plus-350 or better on the standard HR market, confident that Baltimore’s vulnerable arms and Camden Yards’ summer conditions set up another big swing from the rookie slugger.

Lonte Smith doubled down on Washington by playing both the First-5 moneyline and the full-game ML. He loves MacKenzie Gore’s recent form – low hit rate and a "high K-rate as usual," with three runs or fewer allowed in four straight – and noted that Baltimore’s slumping sticks (two wins in their last 10, both versus the Angels) are unlikely to punish him. Smith hammered Kyle Gibson’s implosion: 12 earned and 16 hits over his last two outings, a low strike-out profile, and the Orioles losing all three of his starts by 3+ runs. He praised the Nationals’ newfound aggressiveness on the bases and a lineup hitting more line drives, concluding that Washington should control the early innings and still be ahead when Baltimore’s lifeless bats and leaky bullpen show up late.

Scott Reichel laid the short –110 with Washington, calling it “an easy bet” against a Baltimore side he labeled unplayable right now. Reichel rattled off Kyle Gibson’s grisly numbers – 0-2 record, 13-plus ERA through three starts, at least three earned in every outing, five-plus in two of them, six walks and seven homers already allowed – and pointed out that the Orioles have dropped all three of his appearances by 3+ runs. Conversely, MacKenzie Gore has been steady: four straight starts of three earned or fewer, a 3.59 season ERA and a strikeout-per-inning profile that should carve up an Orioles lineup shut out Thursday by Chris Paddack. With Baltimore just 2-8 in its last 10 (the only wins coming versus the Angels) and still scuffling offensively, Reichel argued Washington’s scrappy, aggressive offense and clear pitching edge make the Nats undervalued at basically a pick’em price.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended attacking the full-game over because neither starter nor bullpen is in form. He noted that MacKenzie Gore has produced a 4.18 ERA and .278 opponent average across his last 28 innings over five road starts, while Cade Povich carries an ugly 7.94 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in four home outings. Team-wide performance this month offers no relief: Washington ranks 29th in May with a 5.59 staff ERA and Baltimore is only slightly better at 25th with a 5.02 mark. With two hittable left-handers on the hill and two bottom-six pitching staffs behind them, the tout expects sustained traffic on the bases and plenty of crooked numbers, making the over his preferred total play for this matchup.

Brad Francis recommended betting the over in Nationals vs Orioles on May 16. He pointed out that both clubs field bottom-five bullpens: Washington’s relievers own a 6.86 ERA (second worst) while Baltimore’s sit at 5.04 (fifth worst). Francis expects neither starter to work deep—Kyle Gibson has already coughed up 12 earned runs in just seven total innings this year and MacKenzie Gore regularly exits after five—meaning those shaky pens should decide the game. He added that each lineup has produced runs consistently in 2025, noting Baltimore’s offense has stayed hot even during a rough series against Minnesota. With terrible relief pitching and two offenses capable of capitalizing, Francis believes “we see a ton of runs” and the contest sails over the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Washington Nationals money line is worth backing because MacKenzie Gore gives Washington a clear edge over Cade Povich. Gore owns a 1.16 WHIP that ranks top-40 in MLB and leads the matchup in strikeouts, while Povich has been tagged for 43 hits and 22 earned runs in only 35.2 innings. At Camden Yards he is carrying a brutal 7.94 ERA with a .300 batting average allowed across 17 innings. The tout highlighted a stark gap in clutch hitting as well: the Nationals sit 22nd with a .698 OPS with runners in scoring position, while the Orioles are dead last at .581. Washington has also dominated the series lately, winning five of the past six head-to-head meetings. Since April 20 Baltimore has collected just six victories, reinforcing his point that the roster is not built to win consistently. With recent form, a decisive mound advantage, and better situational hitting, he labeled the Nationals money line the first and strongest wager on this game.

Brad Francis advised taking the Nationals on the first-five-innings line Friday because he sees a massive starting-pitching edge. Francis, "a MacKenzie Gore fan," expects the young left-hander to keep Baltimore quiet, while Kyle Gibson has been an automatic fade: nine earned runs in three innings versus the Yankees and three earned in four against the Royals give Gibson an ugly 15.43 ERA through two starts. Baltimore’s reliance on aging arms like Gibson underscores its struggles, whereas Gore’s stuff and strikeout upside should put Washington ahead before its unreliable 6.86-ERA bullpen even enters. Francis calls the Nats F5 bet the safer way to exploit the mismatch without worrying about late-inning meltdowns.

Martin grabbed Washington at a near even -105 price because he sees a massive starting-pitching gap. MacKenzie Gore, the former No. 3 overall pick, has punched out 75 batters in 52 innings and carries solid surface numbers. Cade Povich, meanwhile, had his previous turn skipped, sports an ERA and FIP north of 5.00, and is fighting control (8 walks) and homer issues (5 HR) in his last 7 Camden Yards innings. Even with both lineups ranking bottom-10 overall, the Nats have been markedly better versus lefties, giving Gore superior offensive support. Rain is possible, so Martin advises listing Gore, but if he goes he wants the Nationals in a straight pick’em.

Just A Bet Outside placed a half-unit wager on the Nationals first-five-innings moneyline at –115, citing a sizable pitching mismatch between MacKenzie Gore and Orioles rookie lefty Kee Povich. Gore’s 35% strikeout rate and seven-of-nine starts allowing five hits or fewer give Washington a clear run-prevention edge early. He already handled this Baltimore lineup once, limiting them to four hits and two earned runs with eight Ks. Povich, meanwhile, carries one of the worst left-handed profiles in MLB – 6.38 xERA and a 12% walk rate – and makes just his second career start, leaving the tout unconvinced he can navigate a Nationals order that sits top-10 in wRC+ versus southpaws. Because a first-five wager refunds on a tie, the host believes the play captures Gore’s dominance while avoiding Washington’s shaky bullpen. He projects the Nats to lead 2–0 or 3–1 after five.

Just A Bet Outside flagged MacKenzie Gore’s strikeout prop (likely 6.5) as one of the best K bets on the Friday slate. The Orioles own the 7th-highest strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (25.6%), and Gore brings a top-tier 35% K-rate into Camden Yards with 75 punch-outs in 52.2 innings. He has cleared seven strikeouts in six of his last seven outings and sports an absurd 41.4% K-rate when attacking fellow lefties. Even though his road K-rate (32.5%) trails his home mark (38.9%), it is still well above league average. The host expects Gore to lean on his slider (45% whiff rate) against an O’s lineup that swings through breakers 35% of the time, projecting 7–9 strikeouts in five to six frames. He advised taking the over and pairing it in same-game parlays with Baltimore’s team total under for a plus-money angle.

Lindquist advised laying the modest –115 juice on Washington in the first-five innings with MacKenzie Gore on the bump. Baltimore’s offense has cratered against southpaws—league-worst 50 wRC+, .074 ISO, .179 batting average and a 25.4% K-rate—while Gore brings above-average swing-and-miss from the left side. With rookie Cade Povich starting for the Orioles, Lindquist prefers isolating the starting-pitching edge before bullpens get involved. He views the Nats as roughly –135 true F5 favorites and sees additional upside if Gore’s over-6.5-strikeout prop (still being evaluated) lands in plus territory.

Chris Bennett said MacKenzie Gore is a priority tournament arm at $9,700 because Baltimore has been hopeless against southpaws, carrying a 50 wRC+, .236 wOBA and .074 ISO. Gore already logged 40 FanDuel points against this lineup earlier in the year by punching out eight over six frames, and Bennett expects a similar strikeout haul even if the Orioles’ left-heavy order nicks him for a run or two. Weather is the only caveat; otherwise Gore profiles for ceiling at a non-ace price.

Guy Boston advised taking Washington on the first-five moneyline rather than the full game. He argued that AJ Smith-Shawver’s small-sample success does not justify Atlanta’s –202 price tag because Trevor Williams has held the current Braves roster to a .257 average and .302 wOBA over 126 PA. With the Nationals’ bullpen ranking near the bottom of MLB, Boston wants to isolate the starting-pitcher matchup, where he believes the talent gap is far narrower than the market implies.

Malstrom advised taking the Yes-Run-First-Inning in Nationals-Braves, pointing to looming positive regression for Atlanta’s stacked lineup against Trevor Williams. Williams owns a 5.88 ERA, bloated 1.573 WHIP and is surrendering more than a hit per inning, metrics that spell trouble versus Ronald Acuna Jr. and company. Malstrom expects Atlanta’s top of the order to capitalize immediately and push a run across within the opening six outs.

Eric Lindquist said the Nationals are the side to back at +1.5 runs because Trevor Williams’ underlying numbers are far better than his surface 5.88 ERA suggests. Williams owns a 3.89 expected ERA and a 0.322 xwOBA, while Atlanta rookie AJ Smith-Shawver is sitting on a 5.12 expected ERA, a 10.9 % walk rate, and a .362 xwOBA despite the flashier stuff. Books opened the run line at –110 across the board, signalling they expect public Braves money, but Lindquist thinks the market is mispricing the gap in command and contact quality. He called Washington +1.5 “high on the priority list” even on a full slate and plans to wait for an even better price once Atlanta money shows up.

Rob Donaldson fired two bets on CJ Abrams: over 1.5 total bases at +116 for three units and a sprinkle on the home-run prop at +500. Donaldson is fading AJ Smith-Shawver’s fastball command, noting the rookie is surrendering piles of hard contact since his brief no-hit tease. Abrams owns the Nationals’ best barrel percentage against four-seamers this season and is slugging .534 versus righties. In a warm Truist Park with the wind blowing out and a vulnerable pitcher who lives in the zone, Donaldson believes Abrams has multiple paths to two bases and legitimate long-ball upside.

Guy Boston recommended playing Jose Tena under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in the opener against Bryce Elder. Boston expects Elder to feature his slider 35-40 % of the time— the pitch has limited right-handers to a .191 expected batting average with a 35 % whiff rate this season. Tena carries a −3 run value versus sliders and is slugging just .286 against pitches that break glove-side at 85 mph or harder. Boston added that Atlanta’s bullpen owns a top-three xFIP the past two weeks, so even if Tena avoids Elder a second time, he will still be staring at premium relief arms. With Boston already on the first-five under in this contest, he doubts Tena will collect the two counting stats needed to bust the prop.

Eric Lindquist liked James Wood over 1.5 total bases at plus money and said a home-run sprinkle is also live against Bryce Elder. Wood sits on a 59 % hard-hit rate that ranks in the top two percent of the league, and Lindquist noted the rookie has started correcting his launch-angle issues just enough to turn those rockets into extra-base knocks. Elder, meanwhile, owns mediocre underlying numbers (14 % K-rate, .278 xBA, .454 xSLG) and leans heavily on a sinker that Wood punishes (.590 xwOBA vs RHP sinkers). Although Lindquist "never loves" Truist Park for left-center power, he still sees value because Elder allows so much contact in the air and the plus-money price bakes in that park discount. He labeled Wood’s total-bases prop his preferred play but encouraged bettors to shop for 5-1 or better on the homer market.

Lindquist suggested attacking James Wood’s home-run prop—or at minimum over 1.5 total bases—against Atlanta. Even with a sub-optimal launch angle, Wood owns a 59 % hard-hit rate that sits in the top 2 % of MLB, and Truist Park’s summer conditions boost carry to right-center. Atlanta’s projected starter (not named in the clip but expected to be Charlie Morton) has served up a .432 slugging to left-handed bats this season. Lindquist likes the combination of elite exit velocity and a homer-friendly environment, expecting plus-500 or better to be available when books open the market.