Brandon Gustafson advised taking CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 receptions at -154, grading it 3.5 stars. He highlighted that, despite George Pickens leading some team stats, Lamb remains Dak Prescott’s preferred option, recording at least five grabs in five of six contests since returning from injury. Overall, he has topped 5.5 receptions in five of eight full games this season while running a route on nearly every Dallas drop-back. The SportsLine model projects 7.9 catches for Lamb versus Detroit’s defense, which permits the league’s sixth-highest completion rate. With both offenses operating at top-five pace and the Lions vulnerable underneath, Gustafson expects steady short-area volume to push Lamb past the prop total.

Brandon Gustafson labeled Jameson Williams' Over 80.5 receiving-yards prop a 3.5-star play. He leaned on the SportsLine Projection Model, which runs 10,000 simulations and flags value on this number at -113 odds. Gustafson stressed that Dallas' secondary, though improved during a three-game win streak, still gives up explosive pass plays. With Amon-Ra St. Brown nursing an injury, Williams could see an expanded target share. The deep threat has posted at least 88 yards and a touchdown in three of his last four outings, demonstrating elite big-play ability. Gustafson expects a track meet between the NFC’s two highest-scoring offenses (Cowboys 351 points, Lions 350) and forecasts multiple downfield shots from Jared Goff, enough for Williams to clear the posted line even on limited catches.

In the same preview, Ross Kelly laid out the case for laying the field goal with Detroit. He reminded readers that the Lions thrashed Dallas 47-9 in their 2024 meeting—Detroit’s third-largest road victory ever and the Cowboys’ fourth-worst home loss in franchise history. Returning to Ford Field, Detroit should benefit from Dallas scoring 6.9 fewer points per game on the road than at home. Kelly highlighted an eye-popping trend under Dan Campbell: since the start of the 2023 season the Lions are 10-1 against the spread (90.9%) following a straight-up loss. Over that same stretch the Cowboys are just 11-13 ATS (45.8%) after a win. Those resiliency numbers, combined with home-field advantage and last year’s blowout, have Kelly confident Detroit can cover the current -3 line.

Ross Kelly argued bettors should grab the three points with Dallas on Thursday night. He pointed out that the Cowboys have covered three straight spreads, the last two coming against last season’s Super Bowl teams (Kansas City and Philadelphia). Detroit, on the other hand, has failed to cover its last three games and could be without two of its biggest offensive weapons: Sam LaPorta (back, could be lost for the year) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle, DNP all week). Kelly emphasized the impact of Dallas’ mid-season trade for Quinnen Williams, noting the club has allowed just 69.7 rushing yards per game since his arrival—less than half of the 143 rushing yards it surrendered in the nine games prior. With a suddenly stout run defense and the Lions’ passing corps banged up, Kelly believes Dallas is well equipped to keep this one within a field goal and possibly steal the outright win.

Camenker likes Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD at +200. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond could both miss Thursday, freeing up red-zone targets. The Cowboys have already coughed up a league-high 21 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers. The 6-4, 215-pound third-round rookie has turned three of his six receptions into scores thanks to elite body control, and Sam LaPorta’s season-ending back injury leaves even more end-zone work available. Camenker believes Goff will look TeSlaa’s way on contested throws, making the + odds attractive.

Camenker backed Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ rushing yards at +175. In Detroit’s three games against bottom-quartile run defenses, Gibbs has averaged 14 carries, 138.3 yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns. Dallas ranks third worst in defensive EPA per rushing attempt, presenting the same soft matchup. With the Lions likely down multiple receivers, he expects Ben Johnson to feed Gibbs and exploit the Cowboys’ biggest weakness. One breakaway run could push the explosive back over the century mark for the fourth time in seven contests.

Jacob Camenker said grabbing Dallas +3 is the safest side in what he calls a true coin-flip. Prescott and company have ripped off three straight wins while averaging 29.3 points, and post-bye defensive tweaks are generating just enough timely stops to beat good opponents. Detroit, meanwhile, has stumbled to a 3-4 record over its last seven, struggling to protect Jared Goff behind an injury-riddled offensive line. With top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown "banged up," Camenker doubts the Lions can match Dallas drive for drive. Because the outcome may come down to the final possession, he prefers taking the field goal head start with the hotter Cowboys.

Bookies.com Staff suggested taking the Detroit Lions team total over, citing the offense’s recent stretch of five touchdowns and 300-plus passing yards in consecutive home games. They emphasized the balance between explosive down-field passing and efficient red-zone execution, enhanced by the uptempo environment inside Ford Field’s dome. With indoor turf boosting pace and scoring, they believe Detroit can once again clear the posted points threshold against a Cowboys defense that has shown cracks against balanced attacks.

Bookies.com Staff advocated betting Jared Goff over 250.5 passing yards. Their rationale: Goff’s passer rating and multi-TD frequency rise sharply in Detroit, where a clean pocket and fast indoor turf let him attack vertically. Visiting defenses that fail to generate consistent pressure have repeatedly surrendered chunk gains once Detroit seizes momentum, resulting in 300-plus passing yards in several recent Ford Field appearances. Given those trends and the expectation of an uptempo, high-total contest, the staff project Goff to eclipse the 250-yard line again.

Bookies.com Staff highlighted Jahmyr Gibbs’ rushing yard prop at 74.5 and urged bettors to take the over. They noted that Gibbs "thrives running behind a strong line when playing at Ford Field", where consistent lane creation and the fast turf amplify his explosiveness. Indoor conditions remove weather-related slowdowns, and opposing defensive fronts have struggled to adjust quickly, allowing sustained touch volume for Detroit’s lead back. After several home games in which he cleared 75 yards with ease and found the end zone, the staff expect another heavy workload that pushes him past the posted number.

Bookies.com Staff recommended betting CeeDee Lamb to score an anytime touchdown in the Cowboys-Lions matchup at Ford Field. They pointed out that Lamb has "routinely surpassed his receiving expectations" on the road because Dallas opens games with scripted quick-hit throws and then leans on Dak Prescott’s mid-game adjustments to spring Lamb into open space. Those patterns have produced steady separation and red-zone chances regardless of venue. With the game carrying a high projected total indoors, and Detroit’s secondary expected to loosen up after halftime, the staff believe the odds on another end-zone visit make sense as a core leg inside same-game parlays.

For an even longer shot, JutPicks sprinkled KaVontae Turpin +600 to hit pay-dirt. Turpin’s offensive snap rate has jumped to roughly 35% since the bye, showing the coaching staff’s growing trust when they spread the field. The speedster already delivered a pivotal Thanksgiving play by pouncing on a fumble in the red zone, and JutPicks believes Dallas will script a jet-sweep or deep shot to showcase that big-play juice in primetime. Against a Lions secondary that just surrendered multiple explosive pass plays on Thanksgiving, Turpin’s home-run profile coupled with the high total makes him an attractive anytime-TD dart.

JutPicks grabbed Dak Prescott at +650 to score on the ground Thursday night, calling it a juicy long-shot that fits the game environment. He pointed to the 54.5-point total and a Dallas implied team total of 26 (top-five on the Week 14 slate) as indicators the Cowboys should live in the red zone. Prescott has already run for two scores this season despite a generally conservative rushing workload, and Dallas ranks in the top half of the league in red-zone touchdown rate. On the other side, Detroit’s banged-up defense is allowing TDs on 63% of opponent trips inside the 20. With the national spotlight and MVP chatter swirling, JutPicks expects Mike McCarthy to dial up at least one read-option or goal-line boot to let Prescott punch one in.

Pat Sharyon highlighted Bet365’s +425 line on Jahmyr Gibbs to score the game’s first touchdown as the best prop value for Thursday Night Football. Citing 10,000 Dimers simulations, Sharyon noted Gibbs carries a game-high 14.5% first-TD probability, nearly double any other Lion and comfortably ahead of Dallas’ top option (Javonte Williams at 11.9%). The model also pegs Gibbs for 84 rushing yards and a 68.1% anytime-TD chance, reinforcing his central role in an offense projected for 28 points and favored by 3 at Ford Field. With a high total of 54.5 and Detroit expected to lean on its most explosive weapon early, Sharyon framed the +425 price as a strong payout opportunity relative to the modeled true odds (+590 implied by 14.5%).

Will Brinson urged readers to snag the Cardinals +8.5 versus the Rams, calling the spread "out of whack" given several situational angles. Los Angeles is on a back-to-back road swing, traveling cross-country after being "exposed a little" in Carolina. Brinson also flagged a potential look-ahead for Matthew Stafford with his annual revenge trip to Detroit looming next week. Because it is a divisional game and Arizona has generally kept contests competitive, he feels comfortable taking more than a full touchdown before bettors trim the number later in the week.

Will Brinson recommended betting the Eagles ‑2.5 on the road against the Chargers before any news solidifies Justin Herbert’s status. Herbert just underwent surgery on his left (non-throwing) hand, leaving his Week 14 availability in doubt. Brinson stressed that backing Philadelphia under a field goal is a gift for an Eagles squad fighting to keep Dallas at bay atop the NFC East, especially if Easton Stick ends up starting. Even if Herbert suits up, Brinson trusts the Eagles’ urgency and superior roster in what he labeled a "must-bet spot" at this cheap early number.

Will Brinson advised jumping on the Bengals +6 at Buffalo before the market corrects. He conceded Cincinnati’s defense is "historically bad" and will again lack edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, yet argued the line should be closer to 4.5 now that Joe Burrow looked "pretty good" in his return against Baltimore. Brinson expects a shoot-out given the 51.5 total and pointed out Burrow should also regain Tee Higgins. He called the Bills’ dominant showing versus Pittsburgh an occasional outlier rather than a new norm. Citing the Bengals’ renewed playoff belief in a "pathetic" AFC North and the 9-1 division odds still dangling, Brinson believes the extra points are worth snagging immediately.

Will Brinson said bettors should grab Jameson Williams at +105 for an anytime touchdown on Thursday night while the line still bakes in uncertainty around Amon-Ra St. Brown’s injured ankle. Brinson noted that Williams turned in a "monster" effort after St. Brown exited on Thanksgiving, and the rematch with Dallas carries a loud 53.5-point total in Detroit’s domed home stadium. He expects the number to shorten once St. Brown is officially ruled out or limited, pointing out that only the Lions’ three running backs currently sit shorter than even odds. With Detroit in a must-win spot and the Cowboys defense playing better but still susceptible to vertical shots, Brinson believes locking in the plus money early is the sharp move.

Blake Schuster laid -3 with Detroit, saying Thanksgiving letdowns and losses to Green Bay have become routine narrative noise. He expects a positive correction at Ford Field and thinks Dallas is 'due for regression' after its recent hot run. Schuster views the spot as a classic buy-low on the Lions and is willing to lay the points.

Richard Morin took the 3 points with Dallas. He acknowledged the Cowboys’ documented road issues but noted their three-game winning streak gives them confidence and form. Morin expects a tightly contested matchup and believes the cushion of a field goal is enough to side with the underdog.

Lorenzo Reyes said Jahmyr Gibbs 'could be in line for a huge day' versus Dallas, pointing to the Cowboys’ tendency to over-pursue and give up chunk gains on the ground when Micah Parsons is forced inside. With Detroit’s offense expected to rebound, Reyes advised elevating Gibbs in Season-Long lineups and using him as a core play in single-game DFS contests.

Lorenzo Reyes backed the Lions -3 despite a 1-2 skid, arguing their recent struggles stem from execution lapses, not roster talent. He views Dallas’ defense as improved but still vulnerable—particularly to mis-direction and explosive runs—making this a classic 'get-right' spot for Ben Johnson’s offense. Reyes is laying the points, expecting Detroit to regain rhythm in front of the home crowd.

Tyler Dragon laid the 3 with Detroit, predicting that the Cowboys’ current three-game win streak halts in prime time. Dragon emphasized Detroit’s need to keep pace in the NFC North and expects that desperation to tilt the matchup. He is comfortable eating a field goal, banking on the Lions to play with playoff-level intensity.

Jordan Mendoza grabbed the Cowboys +3, tying the pick to Detroit’s injury report. He pointed out that losing top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown could limit Jared Goff’s passing options and force a narrower game plan. With Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense 'looking great' of late, Mendoza expects the visitors to at least stay within a field goal and give moneyline backers a live shot as well.

Jon Hoefling said the lack of a rest‐day edge on the short week removes one common Thursday handicap, so he is defaulting to Ford Field’s atmosphere and Detroit’s urgency. With both clubs 6-plus wins and jockeying for playoff position, Hoefling believes the Lions—still stinging from recent slip-ups—are the side that 'has something to prove.' He laid the 3-point spread, calling the home-field edge decisive for bettors.

Dragon is laying 8 after pegging Rams 27-17. He blamed last week’s flat effort (three Matthew Stafford turnovers) on travel to North Carolina and expects a rebound against a Cardinals squad already eliminated, with the quick hop to Glendale eliminating fatigue concerns.

Even with Chicago improbably sitting atop the conference, Dragon likes Green Bay 28-24—good for a Bears cover but a Packers statement. He simply sees Matt LaFleur’s club as the NFC North’s best entering December and trusts Lambeau to reinforce it.

Denver has lived on the edge with eight one-score wins, but Dragon predicts a 26-16 result that clears the 7.5-point spread. Having already beaten Vegas in Week 10, he expects the Broncos to control tempo and avoid drama inside Allegiant.

Dragon has Baltimore 27-24 but would take Steelers +5.5, citing Lamar Jackson’s questionable health yet trusting home-field and extra rest after Thanksgiving to vault the Ravens into first place in the AFC North.

Despite losing three of four and laying 1.5 on the road, Dragon believes the Colts right the ship 27-24 to snap Jacksonville’s three-game surge in a suddenly wide-open AFC South race.

Dragon laid the hefty 8.5, projecting 28-17 Bucs. He framed New Orleans as a club "thinking about next year" while Tampa Bay chases a fifth straight NFC South title, implying motivation plus talent gap equals comfortable cover in Raymond James.

Riding a three-game heater, the Dolphins get Dragon’s nod 24-20 as 2.5-point favorites. He called the Jets "bad" and expects Miami’s momentum to trump MetLife’s December weather, stretching the streak to four and keeping their wild-card hopes alive.

Dragon laid the short 2-point road chalk, projecting Commanders 21-17. He thinks Washington’s backup quarterback can manage the game while Minnesota continues to be "marred" by poor signal-caller play after letting Sam Darnold walk. With Jayden Daniels still nursing an elbow, Washington’s depth under center becomes the key edge.

Calling Browns 16-14 (short of the 3.5-point spread), Dragon spotlighted edge terror Myles Garrett and a "top-ranked defense" as the difference in a duel between 2025 first-round passers Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. He expects each young quarterback to flash but believes Cleveland’s defense ultimately decides it.

Dragon picked Buffalo 27-24 but noted the 6-point number is rich because Joe Burrow’s return has made Cincinnati "by far" more dangerous. Cincinnati has beaten Buffalo twice in a row, including last postseason, so Dragon expects a close revenge win rather than a comfortable cover for Josh Allen’s crew as they chase the Patriots atop the AFC East.

Dragon projected a 27-17 Seattle victory, happily laying the 7.5-point road spread. His call hinges on Seattle’s opportunistic defense, fresh off a five-takeaway shutout of Minnesota, overwhelming Kirk Cousins and a still-gelling Falcons attack inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Dragon laid the 3.5, forecasting a 25-20 Chiefs triumph he believes could "springboard" a late playoff push. He respects Houston’s No. 1 ranked defense but views Kansas City’s urgency at Arrowhead as the deciding factor in prime time.

Tyler Dragon predicted Detroit will squeak past Dallas 28-26 even though the Lions are laying 3 points. He acknowledged the Cowboys look revitalized since the trade deadline, crediting the mid-season addition of interior wrecker Quinnen Williams for Dallas’ recent surge, but Dragon still sided with a desperate Detroit squad that cannot afford a third loss in four games if it wants to stay in the NFC North race.

Ben Solak laid the 7.5 with Seattle, saying Atlanta’s offense under Kirk Cousins lacks the multiplicity to threaten the league’s stingiest run defense the Falcons have faced all year. Seattle’s front collapses the pocket quickly and Cousins’ lack of mobility magnifies that mismatch. With Drake London’s knee status in doubt, Solak expects Arthur Smith to lean even heavier on the ground game—exactly what Seattle erases. He acknowledged recent protection issues for Geno Smith but noted Atlanta’s pass rush grades a tier below Minnesota’s or Los Angeles’, two units that actually bothered Seattle. He projects short possessions for the Falcons and enough offensive efficiency from the Seahawks to clear the number.

Pamela Maldonado jumped on Dallas +3, arguing Detroit is being priced like the September version of the Lions, not the banged-up team we have now. She listed a gutted interior defensive line, no TE1, a compromised WR1, and a weakened interior OL as knocks that strip the Lions of their identity on both sides of the ball. By contrast, Dallas’ core pieces remain intact, giving the Cowboys clear trench superiority and the ability to dictate pace while keeping Dak Prescott clean. In her view a short-handed favorite is a betting liability, so she wants the healthier, more stable roster plus the field goal.

Matt Bowen said the six points DraftKings is hanging on the Bears is too many. Chicago is pounding opponents for 153.8 rushing yards a game—second-best in the league—and Bowen loves how OC Shane Waldron layers post-snap motion to spring big lanes. He added that the Bears’ defense leads the NFL in takeaways, a trait he trusts to travel outdoors at Lambeau in December weather. Bowen’s conclusion: with a ground game that shortens contests and a defense that flips possessions, the Bears are live dogs and should be grabbed at +6 before the number shrinks.

Michael Fiddle laid ‑7.5 (-105) with Seattle, arguing the number should be ‑8 based on his market power ratings (Seahawks +4.5 on neutral field, Falcons ‑5.0, plus 1.5 for home field). The Seahawks are 5-1 on the road and 2-0 in early-window East-coast games, quelling the usual travel concern. He expects their speed to pop indoors while Atlanta’s offense sputters with Kirk Cousins looking slow and Drake London still iffy. On defense, the Falcons have allowed 10 passing TDs and a 101.7 opponent passer rating since Week 9. Fiddle sees little chance the line drops to seven and wants the early soft 7.5 before it closes at eight.

Michael Fiddle flagged Isaac TeSlaa as a live touchdown bet for Thursday Night Football. With Amon-Ra St. Brown already ruled out (week-to-week) and Sam LaPorta on IR, the rookie wideout logged 58 snaps (92% of Detroit’s plays) after St. Brown left the Thanksgiving game, surpassing Jameson Williams in usage. Fiddle likes TeSlaa’s size–speed profile to command red-zone looks in a matchup carrying a 53.5 total and no short-rest disadvantage because both clubs played on Thanksgiving. He recommended 0.5 units on TeSlaa anytime TD at +200 and 0.05 units on 2+ TDs at 20-1, risking 0.55 units to win a potential two-unit haul.

Daniel Kohn passed along SportsLine’s 10,000-simulation output and labeled Cleveland –3.5 as a cornerstone of the site’s 25-1 Week 14 parlay. The computer projects the Browns to win outright 70% of the time and cover the spread in more than 60% of sims, creating what the model grades as one of its five biggest edges of the slate. Kohn noted that Cleveland, despite a 3-9 record, has found a steady offensive identity behind running back Quinshon Judkins, who tops the club with 758 rushing yards on 196 totes and seven TDs and just handled 23 carries for 91 yards against San Francisco. With the total set at a low 33.5 and Tennessee’s offense struggling, the model expects a tight, run-centric game script that boosts the value of the short home favorite and effectively prices the Browns’ spread closer to –140 instead of the market’s –110.

PPRTyler told the chat that drafters should leave "every draft with a Jacksonville RB" because, in his words, "you probably win some money this year." He illustrated the point by taking Tank Bigsby over Jaden Blue late in the Puppy 2 room, noting that Bigsby is directly correlated with his existing Trevor Lawrence-Brenton Strange stack and therefore adds more leverage than an uncorrelated dart. While he did not rattle off advanced metrics, Tyler’s angle is clearly correlation-driven: he thinks the Jaguars’ offense will put up numbers, and attaching a low-priced back like Bigsby to Lawrence exposure gives best-ball rosters added paths to spike weeks without burning early capital.