Ryan Heath said Adonai Mitchell is “no more than a stash” and should be avoided in 2025 season-long leagues. Heath pointed to Mitchell’s paltry 34.1% rookie route participation, the presence of Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and Alec Pierce, and Indianapolis’ still-shaky quarterback situation. Even with above-average separation on certain routes, Heath does not expect the sophomore to command volume and sees little path to weekly fantasy relevance.

Tristan H. Cockcroft urged managers not to give up on Adonai Mitchell after a rough rookie season that featured a league-worst 42.6 percent catch rate among receivers with 50+ targets and a 5.6 percent drop rate. Mitchell’s speed remains elite, and Colts camp reports plus a preseason opener featuring catches of 15 and 22 yards indicate cleaner hands and better chemistry with the quarterback room. If his efficiency merely reaches league average, Cockcroft expects Mitchell to push Alec Pierce for a full-time perimeter role and become an upside bench option who can break long scores in any given week.

Mike Clay warned drafters not to chase post-hype second-year receivers who flopped as rookies. Of 50 Round-1-to-3 WRs who finished outside the top 90 in PPR their first season (2014-2023), only five ever logged even one top-30 campaign and none posted a top-10 year. Clay specifically listed Adonai Mitchell, Luke McCaffrey, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jermaine Burton, Malachi Corley and Roman Wilson as 2025 traps. Instead, he recommended concentrating on sophomore wide-outs who already showed life—Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey, Marvin Harrison Jr., Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze and others—as well as rookies with strong draft capital. Supporting data: 86% of the top-50 WR seasons over the past five years came from players taken in the first three NFL rounds, and 71% of rookie top-30 finishers repeated in year two. Draft pedigree and early production remain the most reliable breakout indicators.

Josh admitted Adonai Mitchell’s training-camp buzz has been lukewarm but still grabbed him for the long game. Reggie Wayne, Michael Pittman, and other Colts veterans say Mitchell "can flat-out get open," and Josh trusts that trait. If the 22-year-old cleans up drops and stays on his feet, a top-36—possibly even top-24—season is within his range of outcomes. Josh preferred Mitchell’s ceiling to older role players like Marvin Mims or Elic Ayum Noor drafted earlier, viewing AD as a cheap swing at a future difference-making wide receiver.

Pat Kerrane warned drafters that Adonai "A.D." Mitchell’s rookie-year upside is far murkier than the market assumes. To secure a starting outside job he must first dislodge Alec Pierce, a vertical threat the Colts coaching staff still values because defenses have to respect his down-field speed. Kerrane pointed out that Pierce’s presence limits Mitchell’s clean-cut “I’m the starter now” path that fellow late-round targets like Jermaine Burton enjoy. Even if Mitchell eventually carves out a role, Kerrane expects a slow on-ramp—rotational snaps and situational deep routes rather than full-time usage—making him a shakier contingent bet in Best Ball drafts where roster spots disappear quickly.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound highlighted rookie Adonai Mitchell as a home-run swing worth prioritizing in the final rounds. Although Mitchell currently sits fourth on the Colts’ depth chart, Pat argued his ceiling eclipses veterans like Darius Slayton once he earns consistent snaps. Pat is already 25 % exposed and believes that if Mitchell can secure playing time and receive even competent quarterback play, he would "absolutely smash." The bet is purely contingent—Mitchell needs either an injury ahead of him or rapid development—but Pat thinks the combination of rookie talent and potential target vacuum in Indianapolis makes the risk-reward calculus a no-brainer for Best Ball Mania teams hunting unique, late-season spike weeks.

Davis Mattek labeled Adonai "A.D." Mitchell the most obvious Round-18 smash on the board. Mitchell ranked ninth in the entire NFL in targets per route run (0.28) as a rookie yet still goes outside the top 200 picks because drafters fear Indy’s passing volume. Mattek countered that Mitchell already proved he steps into a full-time role whenever Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, or Alec Pierce miss snaps, and Anthony Richardson’s down-field aggressiveness (11.2 aDOT) dovetails with Mitchell’s vertical skill set. Given that Best Ball rewards spike-weeks, Mattek is content to chase 5–6 usable games from a player he called "light-years more explosive than the dusty veterans in that ADP range."

Cody Woodman recommended scooping Adonai "AD" Mitchell in the late rounds because Indianapolis almost certainly moves a veteran wideout by the trade deadline. He pointed to Michael Pittman’s two-year, $47 million deal that carries only $5 million in dead money after June 1 each of the next two seasons, making Pittman the obvious trade chip if the Colts start slow (they project as underdogs in five of their first six games). Cody noted that Mitchell already separates well on the outside and would become the unquestioned WR1 if Pittman or Alec Pierce is dealt. Even without a move, Mitchell profiles as the No. 3 target in a Shane Steichen offense that jumped from 28th to 12th in neutral-pass rate over the final six weeks of 2023. Cody believes a mid-season volume surge could push Mitchell’s 2025 ADP into the 14th round, so grabbing him now at pick 180-plus is “found money” in BBM6.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound urged drafters to grab Adonai Mitchell—who he keeps calling “AD”—whenever he’s sitting in the 18th round. Pat floated a realistic scenario where the Colts fall out of contention by the trade deadline and ship out a veteran wideout (most likely Alec Pierce, possibly Michael Pittman Jr. if the back flares up), creating a late-season runway for Mitchell to step into a full-time outside role. He prefers swinging for that contingency-based ceiling rather than taking floor plays like Darius Slayton, pointing out that Mitchell’s route-winning ability and 4.34 speed make him the only Colts receiver with true spike-week potential behind Pittman. Pat wants at least 8% portfolio exposure now before any preseason buzz or trade rumors push Mitchell’s ADP into the mid-teens.

Pete Overzet said Adonai Mitchell is the kind of binary swing that belongs on Best Ball Mania rosters right now. Mitchell goes in the mid-140s, yet Overzet believes a strong camp could immediately push him ahead of Alec Pierce as the Colts’ full-time X receiver. He reminded viewers that Anthony Richardson missed Mitchell on multiple wide-open go-routes last season, so the splash-play chemistry was already flashing before Richardson’s shoulder injury. If the second-year quarterback simply corrects those deep-ball overshoots, Mitchell’s field-stretching profile gives him weekly 70-yard-TD upside in an offense that will lean on vertical shots. Overzet framed the pick as closing-line value: either Mitchell flops early and you were only out a 12th-round pick, or he wins the camp battle and climbs 30+ spots by August, handing drafters a cheap piece of a Richardson stack with true boom weeks.