Jorge Martin flagged Alvin Kamara as a smash pick at ADP 56.4 (RB18, mid-5th round). Kamara’s projection tops 1,300 scrimmage yards with 6 touchdowns, and he is the only proven back in the Saints’ committee. Martin highlighted Kamara’s elite pass-catching floor—57+ receptions in seven of eight NFL seasons—which makes him an ideal Zero-RB or anchor RB target after loading up on receivers early. Martin urged drafters not to overthink and simply scoop Kamara at cost.

Hayden Winks argued Alvin Kamara’s upside is better than the market thinks. Kellen Moore’s uptempo offenses routinely rank top-five in pace, and the Saints boast an above-average offensive line that could keep them functional despite shaky quarterback play. Winks does not see a real challenger on the roster: rookie Devin Neal looks like a "mini Devin Singletary" without a trump trait, while Kendre Miller is talented but inconsistent. That leaves Kamara dominating touches as long as New Orleans stays competitive. Winks added the Saints’ front office "does weird things" and could trade Kamara to a contender such as Dallas or Houston before the deadline—an outcome he called "clearly a good thing" for fantasy. At an RB18 price tag he is pairing Kamara with explosive rookies like TreVeyon Henderson, betting on volume, Moore’s pace boost, and possible trade equity to unlock a top-12 season.

Jakob Sanderson urged drafters to tread carefully with Alvin Kamara at his RB18 price tag. Kamara was a regular-season hero last year but scored almost nothing in Weeks 15-17, and Sanderson thinks that script is likely to repeat. The 29-year-old’s rushing efficiency has been mediocre for several seasons—last year’s small rebound included—and the Saints’ offense now revolves around rookie quarterback Tyler Shough on what Sanderson expects to be a bottom-three roster competing for the No. 1 pick. A new coaching staff has every incentive to evaluate younger backs Kendre Miller and rookie Devin Neal once the season is lost. That sets up Kamara to smash early-season projections only to see his workload evaporate in Underdog’s single-week playoff rounds. Because BBM is decided in Weeks 15-17, Sanderson is fading Kamara in favor of backs with clearer December upside.

Chris Raybon is loading up on Alvin Kamara, arguing the market is still anchored to the Dennis Allen–Derek Carr malaise and ignoring the offensive overhaul under Kellen Moore. Raybon expects Moore to replicate last year’s Giants blueprint—protect a shaky quarterback with heavy, creative run usage—which vaulted Saquon Barkley to league-winning volume. New Orleans’ offensive line projects better than 2025, the passing scheme should feature more running-back targets, and Kamara’s perennial 70-catch upside separates him from age-peer backs in the RB22–RB25 range. Because Kamara routinely misses only the “standard” three games each season, Raybon sees minimal durability downside and a path to Barkley-like snap counts if Moore leans on the ground game. He recommended drafting Kamara everywhere until the room adjusts to the coaching change.

Rich Cooling advised dynasty managers not to panic about an ugly RB2 slot before Week 1 because veteran volume backs such as Alvin Kamara inevitably become cheap around mid-season. He pointed out that by Week 7 managers chasing wins are usually willing to unload Kamara for a single second-round pick. Kamara’s weekly workload (15-18 touches with passing-game involvement) keeps him in the RB12-RB16 window whenever he is active, and the Saints still lean on him at the goal line. Cooling’s plan is to ride replacement-level options early, then spend that second-rounder on Kamara once bye weeks hit and his current manager gets nervous about age or injuries, securing reliable production for the stretch run without tying up offseason capital.

Best Ball Guy warned that Alvin Kamara is fragile in BBM6 builds because the Saints could be out of playoff contention by December. He pointed out that veterans on bad teams are far more likely to sit with minor injuries – "tight hamstrings" in his words – during Weeks 16-17 when best-ball prize money is on the line. BBG said Kamara would become interesting only if traded to a contender, noting recent rumors after the running back threw out a first pitch in Chicago. Until that happens he is fading Kamara, reasoning that a potential 3-14 Saints record leaves zero incentive for the staff to risk their aging star in fantasy championship week.

PPRTyler said he likes pairing Alvin Kamara with Chris Olave, calling it his "double-Saints" construction. He noted that New Orleans draws the Jets in Week 16 and the Titans in Week 17—match-ups he called "great for their playoff offense." Tyler acknowledged the only drawback is the lack of an obvious Jets or Titans bring-back, but added that Tennessee "isn't that bad" if drafters want to force correlation. Bottom line: he is actively scooping Kamara when he already has Olave (or vice-versa) to attack what he views as soft fantasy-playoff defenses.

Matthew Freedman said Alvin Kamara is an arbitrage smash for drafters who start Zero-RB builds. Kamara is coming off a league-best 93 Utilization Score and projects for 219.7 PPR points in Freedman’s 2025 model – 16.3 points more than Breece Hall – yet Kamara is sitting at RB18 (Round 5) instead of RB12. Freedman expects Kellen Moore’s pass-heavy West Coast scheme to feed Kamara ample check-downs and keep him on the field for three downs. Because the workload, pass-catching chops and projection all outstrip his draft cost, Freedman urged managers to scoop Kamara any time he slips into the fifth round.

Andy Holloway said he is perfectly comfortable drafting Alvin Kamara at his current RB16 ADP, especially in full-PPR formats where Kamara’s reception volume cushions the blow of New Orleans’ suspect offensive line. Holloway noted that Kamara has averaged 5.9 catches per game across his career and has finished outside the top-12 PPR running backs only once when he played at least 13 games. Even in last year’s dysfunctional offense Kamara piled up 75 grabs and ranked third among backs in targets. Holloway does not expect Kellen Moore’s arrival to change Kamara’s short-area role and values the veteran as a fourth-round cornerstone who can give managers a weekly 12- to 15-point floor while the rest of the Saints offense sorts itself out.

Matt Price said that rebuilding managers should target aging yet still–productive backs like Alvin Kamara during the spring and summer when his market bottoms out. In 2023 you could scoop Kamara for a second-round rookie pick because drafters were scared off by age and suspension risk, yet he stayed healthy and finished RB3 in fantasy points per game. Price expects a similar discount this offseason and believes that buying now lets you either ride the production early or, more profitably, flip him to desperate contenders for a first-round pick once bye weeks and injuries hit in November. The play hinges on the league’s annual pattern of contenders overpaying for locked-in touches down the stretch.

Davis Mattek argued that Alvin Kamara still has league-winning upside if a few situational boxes check. Even on mediocre Saints teams he has delivered strong PPR totals, and Mattek thinks 2024 could be the best surrounding context in years. His outs include: rookie QB Tyler Shough merely being passable, the offensive line staying healthy, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed stretching the field, and, most importantly, new OC Kellen Moore operating an up-tempo, pass-friendly scheme. If two or three of those break Kamara’s way, Mattek believes Kamara beats his mid-5th/early-6th round DraftKings ADP handily and provides the structural edge drafters want from a zero-RB build.

Pat Kerrane said he is only interested in Alvin Kamara when the veteran falls to the sixth round on DraftKings. Kamara’s pass-catching profile fits full-PPR scoring, but Kerrane noted that the fifth-round opportunity cost is steep because strong wide receivers regularly slip into that range on DK. Unless Kamara’s ADP settles a full round later, Kerrane is largely passing and allocating those clicks to cheaper WRs with comparable or higher weekly ceilings.

JSU called Alvin Kamara a "dust ball" at his early-fourth-round DraftKings ADP and said he will die on that hill. Kamara turns 30 this season, has absorbed roughly 600 receptions and 1,500 rush attempts—about 2,000 hits by JSU’s math—and now plays on a Saints roster he expects to be "really bad." If New Orleans slides out of contention, JSU thinks the staff will shut Kamara down early rather than run an aging back into the ground, crushing playoff-week utility in Best Ball tournaments. He is instead taking backs like James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, and Kenneth Walker in the same range, arguing they carry less shutdown risk and fresher legs.

Chris Raybon doubled down on his pro-Alvin Kamara stance, arguing that Kellen Moore’s arrival raises Kamara’s carry ceiling without sacrificing receptions. The Saints own the NFL’s lowest projected win total (5.5), Moore orchestrated the league’s run-heaviest offense last season, and rookie quarterback Tyler Shough will need an easy button—all signs that New Orleans will funnel touches to Kamara. Raybon pointed out Kamara has never eclipsed 300 touches and typically plays 13-15 games per year, so there is still tread on the tires. He likened the expected usage to a “poor man’s Saquon Barkley” — 20-plus opportunities with elite pass-catching — but with fewer durability concerns because Kamara avoids big hits “like a self-driving car.” Raybon is comfortable drafting Kamara just inside the top-20 backs, framing him as a safer version of James Conner who still carries RB1 upside in full-PPR formats.

Raybon is hammering Kamara at RB18, arguing the veteran is still the league’s premier receiving back. With rookie Tyra Shutt expected to get the ball out quickly, Taysom Hill sidelined, and no Jamal Williams-type goal-line vulture on the roster, Kamara could push for triple-digit targets on a bottom-feeder team constantly in comeback mode. Raybon highlighted Kamara’s elite 0.27 targets per route and the Saints’ shift to Kellen Moore’s running-back-friendly scheme as reasons Kamara could crack the top-10 once again and swing fantasy titles.

Koerner believes Alvin Kamara is more likely to bust than win leagues at his RB18 price tag. He flagged three red flags: a looming age-30 cliff in just ten days, the Saints’ Vegas win total of 5.5 that forecasts plenty of negative game scripts without goal-line chances, and the possibility that a rebuilding roster could shut veterans down late. While Kamara’s pass-catching chops still suit full-PPR formats, Koerner warned that any injury or late-season shutdown would leave drafters holding the bag.

Best Ball Guy mocked the idea of drafting Alvin Kamara at his current ADP, hammering several red flags. Kamara turns 30 this season and, according to the tout, will be running behind "the worst offense in football." He joked that the Saints could be 1-11 by fantasy playoff time, raising legitimate worries that a veteran with Kamara’s mileage has little incentive—or team context—to grind through December. With touchdown chances expected to crater and explosive plays becoming rarer as backs age, Best Ball Guy views Kamara as a trap pick for drafters still paying for past production instead of future outlook.

Kev Coleman doubled down on Alvin Kamara as a dynasty buy, this time focusing on the massive upside created by a potential in-season trade. Coleman reminded listeners that Kamara still averaged 19.0 PPR points and finished RB5 in points per game last year despite missing three contests. The underlying volume is intact—89 targets in 14 games—and Coleman projects a return to the 100-target range with Kellen Moore calling plays and rookie Tyler Shough likely peppering first-read check-downs. Coleman cited Fantasy Points data suggesting Kamara could rank top-five league-wide in first-read share because Moore wants the ball out quickly behind a shaky offensive line. The Saints gave Kamara only a $2.9 million base salary, making him an easy cap fit for contenders if New Orleans stumbles early. Coleman specifically mentioned the Bears and Chiefs as logical landing spots, arguing that any move to a better offense would spike Kamara’s dynasty value and TD equity overnight. At a current RB22 price on Keep-Trade-Cut, managers get both a high-floor reception engine and a free call option on a deadline deal that could push him back into weekly RB1 territory even at age 29.

Kev Coleman urged dynasty managers to scoop up Alvin Kamara—currently slipping outside the top-24 running backs—because the market is forgetting that volume still trumps situation in PPR formats. Even in what Coleman called a ‘down’ 2024 campaign, Kamara missed three games yet still finished RB9 overall and RB5 in points per game (19.0). He averaged 6.1 receptions, the second-highest mark of his career, showing that the target magnetism remains intact. Coleman expects new coordinator Kellen Moore to lean on running-back check-downs the same way his Chargers’ offenses fed Austin Ekeler, noting that Moore’s backs averaged 154 targets per year in Los Angeles. With the Saints likely starting inexperienced quarterbacks (Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, or Jake Hainer), Coleman anticipates a conservative game plan that funnels even more looks to the backfield. Touchdown equity is admittedly low, but Kamara’s weekly reception floor gives him top-12 PPR upside at a mid-RB3 cost. Coleman compared the buy-window to 2022 Austin Ekeler or 2021 Leonard Fournette—aging backs the market wrote off before they delivered league-winning seasons. He is willing to pay an early 2nd-round rookie pick or any fringe WR3 to acquire Kamara for contending rosters.

Hayden Winks lumped Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, and Kenneth Walker into his favorite value pocket at picks 60-64, arguing all three offer "guaranteed touches" that the market is discounting. Kamara leads the group with a 19% career target share and faces minimal backfield competition after the Saints passed on early-round RBs. Winks trusts the combination of pass-game floor and proven red-zone usage (15 carries inside the five last season) to outscore most rookie backs being drafted ahead of him. He views the price gap versus volatile names like RJ Harvey as unwarranted and is scooping Kamara whenever drafters chase youth instead of bankable production.

JSU advised getting underweight on Alvin Kamara despite the veteran’s proven early-season PPR floor. He fears the Saints’ offense will be one of the league’s worst with no clear quarterback upgrade, making it easy for defenses to crowd the box once inevitable injuries hit the offensive line. If New Orleans spirals out of contention, JSU expects the staff to protect Kamara’s long-term health by limiting snaps or shelving him outright during fantasy playoff weeks. That risk, combined with declining explosiveness and a rising ADP that assumes 17 healthy games, makes Kamara a portfolio landmine in top-heavy Best Ball tournaments where late-season upside is crucial.

Jon Warner called the 724.5 rushing-yard line on Alvin Kamara "laughably low." Kamara ran for 950 yards last season despite missing three games, averaging 63 yards per contest and clearing the posted number by Week 13. Warner compared the prop to Christian McCaffrey’s 1-for-1 hybrid role, noting that New Orleans projects for top-10 offensive plays with Derek Carr in Year 2 and an improved line anchored by first-round tackle Taliese Fuaga. Even if Kamara’s carry share dips from last year’s 55% to 45%, simple volume math still lands him around 800 yards at his career-low 4.0 YPC. With no competition added besides day-three rookie Jayden Daniels, Warner is betting the higher on 724.5 and aggressively scooping Kamara at his Round-6 Best Ball ADP, labeling him a “CMClite arbitrage” for drafters who miss on the top tier.

Mike Wright kept piling on pass-catching backs by adding Alvin Kamara as his RB3, insisting age has not closed Kamara’s reception window. Wright noted that even in a down 2023 Kamara finished second among running backs with 86 catches and ranked top-five in yards per route run versus zone coverage. With Klint Kubiak arriving as offensive coordinator—his previous offenses targeted running backs on 21% of routes—Wright expects another 70-plus-catch season. He also highlighted that Kamara handled 41% of the Saints’ inside-five carries last year, so touchdown upside remains intact. Wright is comfortable spending an early-third-round pick because pairing Kamara with Christian McCaffrey "monopolizes the running-back reception market" and locks in weekly floor.

Steph Miller argued that Alvin Kamara is the safer Best-Ball Mania pick than teammate Chris Olave even though they are drafted in the same neighborhood. Her case: Kendre Miller has yet to stay healthy long enough to threaten real touches, and the viral training-camp clip of Jamaal Williams looking "slow as molasses" suggests Williams may remain an early-down afterthought. Steph acknowledged the Saints’ offense could be "comically bad," but pointed out Kamara has still averaged 16.2 PPR points in games where he sees at least five targets— a threshold he has cleared in 77 percent of his starts the past two seasons. Because volume is more bankable at running back than wide receiver on talent-poor offenses, Steph is "far more confident Kamara gets his points" and is stacking him aggressively in the sixth and early seventh rounds while letting the field chase Olave’s less predictable spike weeks.

Erik Beimfohr grudgingly endorsed Alvin Kamara as a “good pick in the sixth” on Underdog. Kamara quietly ranked RB8 in total half-PPR points last season even after missing four games, thanks to 17.7 touches and 5.9 high-value receptions per outing. Beimfohr acknowledged worries about new quarterback Tyler Shough replacing Derek Carr, but argued that Kamara’s role— 53 % team red-zone share and a 15-carry, 4-target weekly workload— should survive any competency downgrade. In half-PPR formats those rush attempts and goal-line looks carry more weight than the receptions he might lose. At a sixth-round price you are paying for a mid-RB2 yet getting realistic RB1 weekly ceilings without sacrificing elite early-round wide-receiver equity. Beimfohr’s bottom line: click the “gross” veteran, bank efficient yardage-plus-touchdown production, and let everyone else chase uncertain rookie upside at the same cost.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Alvin Kamara a smash at his current 63.0 ADP, saying, "it’s like we learned nothing from last year." He pointed to Kamara’s steady 2023 workload and the Saints’ willingness to restructure his deal as proof the team still intends to feature him. Pat also noted New Orleans passed on drafting serious backfield competition, leaving only Kendrick Miller’s health concerns and journeyman depth behind Kamara. Because the discounted price lets drafters build creative anchor-RB or zero-RB structures, Kamara has become one of Pat’s most-rostered players.

Chris Raybon pointed out that Taysom Hill’s late-season knee surgery is expected to sideline him for all of 2024, removing the gadget QB who siphoned nine red-zone carries and six touchdowns from Alvin Kamara last year. With Hill gone and Moore historically preferring traditional red-zone concepts (his Dallas units ranked bottom-six in QB rush attempts inside the five), Raybon projects Kamara’s share of goal-line touches to jump from 38 % to roughly 65 %. Even if the overall offense is volatile, that touchdown infusion vaults Kamara back into mid-RB2 territory for season-long leagues and gives him weekly ceiling in best-ball formats where TD variance is king.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound preferred Alvin Kamara to David Montgomery when both backs were on the board in the mid-70s, calling Kamara a "wheels-up" click. He argued the Saints quietly fortified their offensive line this offseason and that Kamara already silenced age concerns by finishing as RB8 in points per game after returning from his three-game suspension last year. Kamara averaged 6.5 targets and 4.5 red-zone touches per contest in 2023, a usage profile Pat expects to remain intact given the lack of real backfield competition. Because the veteran is easy to stack with later New Orleans or Atlanta bring-backs and benefits from a dome schedule in Weeks 16-17, Pat believes Kamara should be going at least half a round earlier and is a priority RB2 in Best Ball Mania rooms.

Pete Overzet pushed back on the idea that Alvin Kamara’s price will rise once summer drafts heat up. He argued there is no catalyst—no rookie hype piece, no depth-chart shake-up—that would spark enthusiasm the way a big camp report might for a younger back. In fact, he sees multiple reasons for Kamara to slip: talk of Derek Carr stepping away and the possibility of 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough starting at quarterback dampen the overall offensive outlook. Unless beat writers start raving about Shough peppering Kamara with two-yard check-downs all camp, Overzet expects the veteran to drift a round or two cheaper. His advice: stay patient or remain underweight until that discount materializes.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound prefers clicking Alvin Kamara every time he slips past Chuba Hubbard in the RB40 range. He noted Hubbard’s path got muddier after Carolina added both rookie Rico Dowdle and pass-down specialist Trevor Etienne, while Kamara’s role and third-down usage in New Orleans remain intact. Because Kamara consistently comes off the board a few picks later, Pat views him as the "easy value" in that pocket and expects his half-PPR floor to outpace Hubbard’s even if the Panthers back keeps nominal starter status.

Pat Kerrane argued Alvin Kamara is mis-priced at his 63 ADP, calling him the perfect “running-back chaperone” for Best Ball rooms. Devin Neal was only a fifth-round pick and is “probably not touching Kamara’s role to begin the season,” while new coordinator Kellen Moore historically funnels targets to backs—giving Kamara a cushy check-down runway whether Tyler Shough or Derek Carr is under center. Kerrane expects projection models to slot Kamara as RB9 in Weeks 1–2 and sees little risk the Saints alter that usage early. He loves pairing Kamara at the 5/6 turn with explosive rookies such as R.J. Harvey or TreVeyon Henderson, letting the veteran bank 15-point floors until the kids pop. Even though he refuses to rank Kamara ahead of consensus to avoid “screenshot shaming,” Kerrane admitted he is matching ADP precisely because the role screams value—especially when the alternative picks are fringe WR3s. His bottom line: draft Kamara as an early-season anchor and ride the rookie upside wave behind him.

Eric Luttrell was stunned to land Alvin Kamara in the middle of Round 6, calling it the “anti-fragile veteran build cheat code.” The Saints invested a first-rounder in left tackle Taliese Fuaga and brought back center Erik McCoy healthy, moves Eric believes push the unit into top-10 run-blocking territory. Despite a down 2023, Kamara still averaged 5.3 receptions and 16.4 half-PPR points per game— production normally priced two full rounds higher. New Orleans added zero backfield competition beyond UDFA depth, and OC Klint Kubiak has already told local media he wants more pre-snap motion and outside-zone looks, concepts that historically juice Kamara’s yards-before-contact. Luttrell’s take: grab the discount now, bank a locked 275-touch workload, and enjoy the roster-construction flexibility a sixth-round RB1 affords in Underdog’s WR-heavy rooms.

Mike Wright explained that news of Derek Carr’s lingering throwing‑shoulder injury actually boosts Alvin Kamara’s outlook. Carr already leaned on Kamara for quick throws, logging the league’s sixth‑highest check‑down rate last season. With a compromised shoulder, Carr is even more likely to avoid deep shots and pepper Kamara on swing passes and option routes, propping up the back’s reception volume and PPR floor. Wright acknowledged the risk that Carr’s shoulder could sideline him entirely—if a rookie replaces him, volume becomes less certain—but for now the injury tilts the offensive design toward short, easy completions that Kamara converts into chunk yards. He moves up Wright’s season‑long ranks as a high‑end RB2 with RB1 upside in full‑PPR formats.