Shawn Siegele said rookie Ashton Jeanty is a justifiable first-round redraft pick because he projects for true workhorse volume in Las Vegas. Siegele floated a realistic path to 350 carries and 100 targets, predicting Jeanty will finish the season with the highest expected points of any running back. He backed it up with the Boise State star’s outrageous collegiate peripherals: a 33 percent evasion rate, yards-after-contact rising from 4.2 to 4.7, and 3.9 yards per route run—tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the second-best mark by an RB over the past five years. Siegele noted Brock Bowers will pull defensive attention and the Raiders’ overall offensive environment should be “dramatically better,” giving Jeanty a clear runway to combine elite workload with plus efficiency. If the rookie manages even middling fantasy points over expectation (+2 to +3), Siegele believes he could be the single best pick in 2025 redraft leagues.

Whalen ranked rookie Ashton Jeanty directly behind Henry in Tier 2, citing talent and projected volume. He called Jeanty a better prospect than Leonard Fournette and noted multiple first-year backs (e.g., Ezekiel Elliott 2016) who immediately delivered RB1 numbers. The Raiders backfield is wide open, and Whalen expects Jeanty to ‘see a ton of work’ from Week 1, making him an upside pick despite lacking NFL proof of concept.

Matt Price advised holding Ashton Jeanty through the preseason but being ready to sell the moment he posts a monster game. He argued that Jeanty’s current cost is already high, yet a Week-1 stat line such as 150 yards and two touchdowns would push the sophomore back to consensus RB1 in devy rankings. At that point Price would shop him for a multi-asset return like Amariyon Hampton plus a 2025 first, turning one risky running-back prospect into two safer building blocks while the market irrationally chases the hot name.

Josh Norris said Ashton Jeanty’s late-Round-1 ADP still makes sense if you understand the two ways he can smash. First, the “Chip Kelly bump” – Norris thinks the betting market could be three-plus points light on the Raiders because handicappers struggle with brand-new play-callers, quarterbacks, and schemes. If Vegas has mis-projected and the offense jumps merely to league-average, Jeanty’s red-zone outlook improves overnight. Second, Jeanty may simply catch 75-80 passes regardless of team scoring thanks to his proven receiving chops and Geno Smith’s propensity to work underneath. Those receptions would offset a modest touchdown total and put him on the Jonathan Taylor trajectory. Norris acknowledged the downside – Jeanty’s goal-line share could lag behind workhorse backs like Derrick Henry, who is going two picks later on a Ravens offense projected for the NFL’s second-most points – but maintained the dual upside paths make Jeanty worth the risk in both best-ball tournaments and traditional drafts.

Josh Norris said he is comfortable selecting Ashton Jeanty at the Round-1/2 turn even though Vegas projects the Raiders as a bottom-six scoring team. He cited Chip Kelly’s historic top-10 rush-rate regardless of point output and believes Jeanty could approach 300 touches with only Raheem Mostert and Zamir White behind him. Jeanty’s 49-catch season at Boise State suggests three-down capability, giving him a sturdy floor if touchdowns lag. Norris acknowledged ceiling concerns but argued that a modest three-point bump in team scoring would make Jeanty a justifiable early-round pick.

James Koh said Ashton Jeanty could not have landed in a more ideal spot. Chip Kelly’s Raider offense ran man-gap on 85 % of college snaps, and Jeanty posted a 60 % success rate on man-gap concepts and a ridiculous 94.7 % success rate when those runs went to the outside. His 79 % success rate on outside carries was best in the rookie class. Koh emphasized that Antonio Pierce wants to pound the rock and that Kelly has a long track record of producing big-time fantasy backs. Given the coaching philosophy, outside-run tendency, and Jeanty’s tackle-breaking profile, Koh graded the match a “15 out of 10” and called him a smash season-long target with every-down potential.

Ward explained why the projection team ranks Jeanty RB16 despite his 8.8 ADP. The Raiders carry a 6.5 win total, lack an established quarterback, and project for limited red-zone trips. Jeanty is also expected to cede most passing-down work, further capping his Best Ball ceilings on a squad that will frequently trail.

Davis Mattek predicted an extremely concentrated Raiders offense where rookie RB Ashton Jeanty and sophomore TE Brock Bowers soak up more than half of all team touches, making both smash picks at their aggressive ADPs. Projection models peg the backfield for only 354 carries and Bowers for 147 targets, but Mattek thinks those are floors, pointing to Chip Kelly’s historical willingness to funnel work to his best players (he referenced Trey McBride’s post-staff-change ‘spam’ usage as a parallel). With a shallow depth chart—Jack Bash, Trey Tucker, Dante Thornton, Tommy Mellott, Michael Mayer, and Ian Thomas are the next options—Mattek sees little threat to Jeanty's goal-line work or Bowers’ near-10-targets-per-game expectation. He is comfortable spending a first- and early-second-round pick on the duo individually, though he rarely drafts them together because Week 17 correlation is "not super optimal."

Davis Mattek called Ashton Jeanty a justifiable first-round pick on Underdog, insisting the rookie’s workload will dwarf every early projection. The Raiders are penciled in for 354 running-back carries—roughly in line with last season’s volume—and Chip Kelly’s offenses have finished top-11 in both rush and pass attempts in three of his four NFL seasons. Mattek argued that fourth-overall draft capital guarantees every-down usage, projecting 18-plus touches per game and plenty of red-zone work in an offense that Vegas still prices modestly. Because sportsbooks tend to regress rookies toward the mean, Gente’s current props leave room for a 10+ touchdown, 1,400-scrimmage-yard outcome that would crush his ADP and pay off Offensive Rookie of the Year tickets. Mattek thinks both Jeanty and Brock Bowers beat their median lines, but he avoids taking them together in best-ball finals for Week-17 ceiling correlation reasons.

Liz Loza said she is happily drafting Ashton Jeanty ahead of Saquon Barkley in Best Ball Mania. Jeanty is only 21, carries zero NFL mileage, and now lands in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo Raiders offense that should mirror the 2013-14 Eagles seasons when Kelly rode LeSean McCoy for back-to-back 300-carry campaigns. Loza pushed back on the idea that a mediocre Las Vegas attack will cap ceiling, reminding listeners that Barkley himself finished as the overall RB1 as a rookie on the 2018 Giants. She called the Raiders’ offensive line "underrated," expects Kelly to operate at a top-five pace, and believes Jeanty can soak up bell-cow work while Barkley faces the historical efficiency cliff that always follows a 480-touch year.

Chris Liss is perfectly comfortable spending a top-10 overall pick on rookie Ashton Jeanty after the Raiders grabbed him sixth in the NFL Draft. Liss expects Pete Carroll to recreate the Marshawn Lynch blueprint, projecting roughly 300 carries plus 40-60 receptions for Jeanty— elite touch volume that makes him a threat to lead the league in usage. Jeanty cleared Liss’s 20-catch college threshold with 43 receptions in 2023 and showed true three-down chops. Carroll’s historical RB1 averages 20.8 carries and 2.6 targets per game; plug those numbers into a Vegas offense that now leans on play-action and you have first-round fantasy equity. Liss said Jeanty could justifiably be taken 1.01 but is usually available around pick 8-10, calling that discount "found money" for any season-long drafter willing to bet on rookie running-back immediacy.

JSU warned drafters to pump the brakes on rookie Ashton Jeanty at his current 7-to-8 overall ADP. Jeanty is coming off the board as RB4, so you basically need him to finish as the overall RB1 or RB2 to justify that slot. JSU noted that Saquon, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and sometimes Derrick Henry are already going ahead of him, meaning Jeanty would have to jump almost every established star at the position as a first-year back on the Raiders. In a year where running backs are regaining some draft capital, JSU thinks paying first-round prices for a rookie who still has landing-spot and workload questions is a bet with more downside than upside in Best Ball tournaments.

Conner Allen endorsed Ashton Jeanty at 4-1 for OROY, calling it the last playable price before the market craters. Allen argued that Chip Kelly’s arrival as offensive coordinator all but guarantees a run-first identity and noted that Las Vegas averaged the league’s fifth-highest rush rate inside the 10 last year. With only the oft-injured Sincere McCormick and aging Notre Dame alum Audric Estime behind him, Jeanty projects for a 75-80 % touch share from Day 1. Allen expects 300 total touches, citing Kelly’s Ohio State backs averaging 27.1 opportunities per game in 2023. If the Raiders flirt with eight or nine wins, Allen believes Jeanty’s raw volume—he threw out 1,400 scrimmage yards and 12-plus TDs—would make him the clear narrative favorite over quarterback candidates.

Koerner projected sixth-overall pick Ashton Jeanty for immediate bell-cow volume in a Pete Carroll-Chip Kelly marriage that screams run-heavy. Carroll has historically ranked top-5 in neutral-script rush rate and, according to Koerner, specifically lobbied for Jeanty 96th-percentile burst to recreate the Marshawn Lynch era. Kelly’s collegiate offenses funneled 22-25 touches per game to a lead back and his lone NFL season calling plays for Philly produced a league-high 321 carries for LeSean McCoy. Koerner dismissed concerns about Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers siphoning red-zone looks, noting that Kelly still fed McCoy 59 targets alongside a prime Jordan Matthews in 2014. With Jeanty already taking first-team reps and reporting weight-room numbers north of 600-lb squats, Koerner ranked him RB11 in early projections and urged taking him as early as Round 2 in redraft and best-ball formats.

Wilson gushed that new head coach Pete Carroll is the best thing to happen to the Raiders in years and called No. 6 overall pick Ashton Jeanty ‘so incredibly special’. With Geno Smith expected to pilot an offense that already features Brock Bowers plus rookie wideouts Jack Bech and Dante Thornton, Wilson sees Jeanty facing light boxes and plenty of red-zone looks. The only caution is workload management—Carroll cannot overuse him—but Wilson still expects ‘an enormous year’ and would not be surprised if Jeanty wins Offensive Rookie of the Year. Fantasy/betting nugget: target Jeanty aggressively in dynasty and season-long drafts and sprinkle OROY futures before his price shortens in camp.

Andy Holloway revealed his early projection for rookie Ashton Jeanty at a jaw-dropping 1,653 total yards (1,232 rushing) in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo Raiders offense. Holloway noted Vegas’ league-leading play-pace under Kelly, Jeanty’s three-down collegiate skill set, and a depth chart featuring only career backups behind him. He expects heavy check-down volume from Gardner Minshew, pushing Jeanty near 50 receptions. With that workload, Holloway sees Jeanty’s Underdog ADP settling inside the top-five backs and believes the rookie is a legitimate RB1 candidate in both redraft and best-ball formats.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound argued that Underdog’s 1,049.5-yard rushing/receiving pick’em line for Ashton Jeanty effectively confirms bell-cow usage and makes him a steal when he slips past 1.07 in campus-to-Canton and CFB best-ball drafts. Pat noted that Jeanty’s yardage prop matches Bucky Irving’s despite Irving going 4–5 picks earlier and even mirrors Zamir White’s NFL rookie line from last year, suggesting the books expect an identical workload. Because Boise State returns four starting offensive linemen and projects as a double-digit favorite in nine of twelve games, Pat sees a path to 250+ touches and double-digit scores. If the books are willing to hang a Zamir-White-sized number on Jeanty in May, drafters should trust that signal and treat him as a top-eight overall asset rather than a late-first swing.

Sam Monson said Ashton Jeanty is one of the best running-back prospects of the past 15 years and justified Las Vegas taking him sixth overall. Monson highlighted Jeanty 150-plus missed tackles forced on 370 touches last season, calling him "impossible to tackle" and praising his low-centered power and underrated receiving chops shown in 2023. He framed the decision with a three-question flow chart—existing run-game infrastructure, opportunity cost versus non-blue-chip options at other positions, and willingness to pay a top-15 RB salary—and answered “yes” to all three, arguing the offense already has a solid, improving line and Geno Smith under center for at least three years. Monson concluded that the surplus-value math is close but the talent gap is wide enough to make Jeanty a viable fantasy bell-cow immediately and a dynasty cornerstone despite the usual running-back contract concerns.

Pat Kerrane said managers lucky enough to land Ashton Jeanty at the 1.01 should plan to keep him unless they receive a literal Godfather offer. Kerrane noted that Jeanty is already going in the first round of early best-ball drafts and cited Dewey McFarland’s ceiling projection of 22 fantasy points per game as evidence the rookie can produce RB1 numbers immediately. He framed Jeanty as the rare dynasty back who combines elite projected production with an age profile well below the RB apex, making him both a weekly difference-maker and a year-over-year store of value. Because upside bell-cow running backs are scarce, Kerrane argued the only rational reason to trade out of Jeantyi is if a rebuilding roster can secure three or more future firsts and additional assets. Otherwise, he is the easy 1.01 and a hold in every format.

Rich Cooling said Ashton Jeanty is the lone five-star, 99th-percentile prospect in his entire rookie model. Despite what he called an "average" landing spot, Dentee received elite draft capital and profiles as a day-one workhorse who should score like an immediate RB1 in any dynasty format. Cooling labeled him the only true generational talent in this class and insisted managers should not overthink the 1.01—take Dentee and lock in year-one production plus long-term ceiling.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on early-summer hype that has Ashton Jeanty flirting with a top-5 overall ADP. While he still loves the bell-cow projection in Las Vegas, Kerrane argued Jeanty should not be drafted over Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs— backs in equally strong or better situations who have already flashed elite NFL ceilings. He is comfortable taking Jeanty sixth overall, ideally seventh, and hopes market stabilisers like Establish The Run temper enthusiasm so he can scoop the rookie at picks 8–9 and build overweight exposure. Kerrane compared the pricing debate to the 2022 Jonathan Taylor vs. Christian McCaffrey stalemate: upside is undeniable, but opportunity cost at the very top is brutal if volume assumptions wobble. His plan is to hammer Jeanty whenever he falls behind CeeDee Lamb, but pass when the market gets out over its skis.

Davis Mattek projected that Ashton Jeanty will settle in as the 1.07 pick in Best Ball Mania drafts—immediately after CeeDee Lamb and ahead of Puka Nacua—following the Raiders selecting him sixth overall. Mattek emphasized the vacuum Jeanty is walking into: the only backs under contract are Raheem Mostert, Zamir White and futures-deal depth pieces like Sincere McCormick, giving the rookie a clear runway to Ezekiel Elliott-level volume. He sketched out a 280-carry, 50-to-65-target rookie workload, noting Pete Carroll’s win-now mindset at age 74 and Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense that historically funnels check-downs to running backs. High-value touches should be consolidated—Mostert might poach three TDs, but Jeanty will dominate goal-line work and third-down snaps. Mattek even entertained taking Jeanty ahead of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in home leagues, arguing the rookie’s prospect profile and immediate bell-cow role rival what Elliott and Saquon Barkley enjoyed as rookies. While acknowledging a tilt-inducing week where Mostert steals a score, Mattek called Jeanty a slam-dunk RB1 whose combination of early-down volume and pass-game usage justifies an early-first click in all best-ball and season-long formats.

John Daigle locked Ashton Jeanty in at the 1.01 of Superflex rookie drafts, pointing to the Raiders spending pick 1.06 on him and the absence of real backfield competition. Daigle noted that Raheem Mostert is the only veteran presence and "staying healthy again" is far from guaranteed, leaving Genti clear goal-line and every-down work. The combination of Round-1 capital plus a backfield that projects to funnel touches to the rookie makes Genti his easy 101 despite Superflex format considerations.

Sean Koerner called Ashton Jeanty a "generational talent" who should be treated as a mid-range RB1 immediately. Drafted sixth overall by Las Vegas, Jeanty walks into what Koerner labeled a "wide, wide-open backfield" with no credible competition for touches. With Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly running a historically run-heavy offense, Koerner expects a true three-down workload—think 18-22 carries plus 3-4 targets per week. Jeanty is already coming off the board as RB4 in early best-ball drafts; Koerner initially slotted him at RB7 but said he "can’t fault you" for taking him as a top-five overall pick because running backs hit their prime right away and this landing spot maximizes rookie-year volume, touchdown equity, and ceiling.

Mike Wright celebrated Ashton Gentry going sixth overall to Las Vegas, noting that top-10 draft capital virtually locks in a three-down role—every first-round RB since 2015 has averaged at least 16 touches per game as a rookie. Wright highlighted Chip Kelly’s historical 30.2 rush attempts per game and willingness to feed one back (remember LeSean McCoy’s 314-carry season) as evidence Gentry could flirt with 275 touches right away. The Raiders fortified the line with two day-two tackles and surrounded Geno Smith with Brock Bowers and second-round slot machine Jack Besh, forcing defenses to respect the pass. Gentry’s 96th-percentile burst and 58 college catches give him both goal-line and passing-down equity. Wright placed him RB14 in redraft ranks and the 1.02 in rookie drafts behind only Marvin Harrison Jr., comparing the ceiling to rookie-year Saquon in an offense "suddenly dripping with yak monsters."

Eric Polzin said Ashton Jeanty is the slam-dunk 1.01 in 2025 dynasty rookie drafts because the Raiders drafted him to be their every-down tone-setter. Polzin pointed out the current depth chart lacks a true passing-down back, so even the only "knock" on Jeanty – that he might cede third-down work – could evaporate once camp starts. He compared the rookie’s skill set to the Pete Carroll archetype of Marshawn Lynch and Chris Carson and noted that Carroll (now running the Raiders) traded for Geno Smith because he wants to win immediately, meaning a heavy dose of early-down runs. Chip Kelly’s arrival as offensive coordinator adds juice: in Kelly’s four previous NFL seasons his offenses ranked 1st, 9th, 14th, and 4th in rushing yards. With the offense likely to funnel through Jeanty , Polzin expects a bell-cow workload from day one and labeled him the most valuable non-QB asset for the next several years in dynasty formats.

Davis Mattek forecast a near-Ezekiel-Elliott rookie season for Ashton Jeanty under 74-year-old Pete Carroll and new OC Chip Kelly. Mattek projected roughly 280 carries and 50–65 targets—scaled from Zeke’s 322/39 rookie split—because the Raiders’ current depth chart is bare (Mostert, White, McCormick, reserve-futures names) and the entire coaching staff is in win-now mode. He emphasized Kelly’s up-tempo scheme historically feeds running backs in the passing game and generates extra total plays, giving Jeanty a stranglehold on high-value touches. Mattek compared the organizational urgency to Dallas leaning on Elliott in 2016 and argued Vegas will happily burn Jeanty’s tread to beat Denver and chase a 9-win season. While acknowledging a few annoying Rahim Mostert goal-line vultures, he still projected a realistic RB1 overall outcome and is comfortable drafting Jeanty immediately after CeeDee Lamb in Best Ball and Season-Long leagues—just not over Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, whose proven production bumps them a hair higher.

Pat Kerrane said the market will treat Ashton Jeanty as a top-seven overall pick the moment Underdog’s Best Ball Mania opens. He slotted the rookie RB directly after CeeDee Lamb and ahead of Puka Nacua because Las Vegas spent the No. 6 pick on him and added no threatening backfield competition besides 32-year-old Raheem Mostert and depth guys Zamir White and Sincere McCormick. Using final Big Board ADP gaps—Gibbs at 4.8, Lamb at 6.0, Nacua at 7.9—Kerrane expects Jeanty to settle around 7.0. He already held 12 % exposure pre-draft and will comfortably draft Jeanty at that price, noting the rookie’s elite comps and three-down profile. Kerrane would still take Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs first because they are proven pros, but in standard one-QB Best Ball formats he views Jeanty as the clear tier break between Lamb and Nacua.

Jason Moore said the Jaguars and Raiders are running a coordinated ‘smoke-coverage’ campaign to make everyone think Ashton Jeanty will come off the board at picks 5 or 7. Moore believes those decoys let Jeanty slide to pick 10, where Chicago pounces. He noted GM Ryan Poles already paired Caleb Williams with elite pass-catchers, but still needs a true three-down back after relying on the Roschon Johnson/D’Onta Foreman platoon that ranked 26th in EPA per rush. Jeanty’s 36 percent team-touch share, class-best 0.41 missed tackles forced per carry, and 54 receptions show he can own both early-down and passing-down work immediately. Moore said dynasty managers holding the 1.01 will do cartwheels if this happens, projecting low-end RB1 volume right away in Shane Waldron’s outside-zone attack that generated the league’s fifth-highest rushing success rate last year.

Jason Moore countered that the Raiders will snag Jeanty with the seventh overall pick, insisting both Jacksonville and Las Vegas are throwing up pre-draft smokescreens to coax a trade. Moore believes Antonio Pierce wants to replace Josh Jacobs’ 300-touch role with a true bell-cow after watching last year’s committee average a paltry 3.7 yards per carry. He cited Jeanty’s 91st-percentile burst score and 54-catch season as proof he can stay on the field for all three downs, something Zamir White and Alexander Mattison failed to provide. Moore added that the Raiders have hosted Jeanty for a top-30 visit and have the cap space to keep the offensive line intact, giving the rookie immediate RB2 volume with RB1 upside in redraft and best ball formats.

Holloway staked a bold claim that Boise State star Ashton Jeanty will be taken by Jacksonville at pick 5. He cited multiple league insiders—most notably Peter Schrager’s morning “lock”—saying the Jaguars want a premier skill-position piece for new OC Liam Coen. Holloway noted that Jeanty led all FBS backs with 36 percent of his team’s scrimmage yards and forced 0.41 missed tackles per rush, metrics that dwarf Travis Etienne’s collegiate profile. He believes Doug Pederson wants a true three-down hammer to pair with Etienne’s perimeter burst, similar to how Pederson deployed Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard in Philadelphia. Dynasty managers holding the 1.01 should prep for Jeanty to leapfrog the rookie class if this landing spot materializes; Etienne drafters would need to brace for a significant touch squeeze.

Chris Raybon sees value in the Team-to-Draft markets for Ashton Gentry and grabbed Denver at 17-1 (and a smaller flyer on Dallas at 29-1). League buzz has the Broncos actively calling about moving up—most mocks assume it’s for Amarion Hampton, but Raybon believes their true target is the class’s only surefire top-10 RB. Denver’s roster screams for a bell-cow after last year’s committee disappointed, and Sean Payton historically invests early when he identifies a difference-maker (see Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara). If Jacksonville locks in on Gentry at 5, Raybon expects George Paton to leapfrog them; the 17-1 price bakes in far less than the 6% probability he assigns to that scenario.

Kanell stated he personally started the rumor that Chicago will trade into the top 3-4 picks to secure Ashton Jeanty. His reasoning: new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson comes from Detroit’s two-back system and has already telegraphed a run-heavy identity by investing heavily in offensive line upgrades. Kanell considers Jeanty the clear RB1 of the class—"as good as the Lions’ two backs combined"—and the final piece to a physical, ball-control offense. Bettors looking at first-running-back or team-to-draft props should monitor Bears steam, as Kanell is confident Chicago’s front office is telegraphing its intentions.

Dave Richard called Ashton Jeanty an "absolute fire‑starter" who could be drafted inside the first 12 picks of 2025 fantasy leagues—maybe even ahead of Christian McCaffrey—if he lands with Denver, Chicago or Las Vegas. Richard pointed to Jeanty’s 2024 season, where he recorded the second‑most rushing yards in FBS history while catching 43 passes in 2023, to illustrate his every‑down profile. He highlighted Sean Payton’s track record with dual‑threat backs (Kamara, Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush) as a perfect scheme fit in Denver. Even a "worst‑case" landing spot like Jacksonville would still keep Jeanty in Round 1 discussions, though Richard would then lean McCaffrey slightly. Bryant McFadden added that Jeanty’s elite contact balance and one‑cut quickness mean defenders rarely bring him down on first contact, reinforcing the belief that he will be an immediate fantasy stud regardless of destination.

James Weaver said Ashton Jeanty's steam to Jacksonville at No. 5 has opened a betting window on him going one spot earlier at No. 4. Weaver noted that the Patriots own the fourth pick, have openly shopped it for additional assets, and that RB-needy teams such as the Bears could leapfrog the Jaguars to secure the draft’s only first-round calibre running back. With FanDuel hanging +525 on Jeanty to be the exact 4th selection, Weaver views the combination of Jacksonville’s obvious interest, New England’s willingness to trade back, and multiple suitors behind the Jags as the second-most likely outcome and worth a bet at better than 5-to-1.

Jonathan Jones pushed back on the late buzz tying Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty to Jacksonville at No. 5. He reminded listeners that first‑year GM James Gladstone, age 34, has no public track record and may prefer to accumulate picks rather than burn a premium slot on a non‑McCaffrey, non‑Barkley‑caliber back. Jones added that league contacts view Jeanty as the clear RB1, yet remain 'dubious' the Jaguars will use a top‑five asset on the position. All scenarios—from trading down to taking a lineman or WR—are on the table, but Jones would not be surprised if Jeanty is passed over. Draft‑prop bettors should be cautious about wagering on Jeanty at 5.

Ben Stevens urged bettors to double‑dip on Ashton Jeanty: hammer the under 6.5 draft position at –350 and sprinkle the Raiders at +110 to be the team that pulls the trigger at No. 6. Stevens highlighted new GM John Spitech’s Big Ten pedigree and his public comments lauding both running‑back value and elite special‑teamers—evidence the regime is happy to buck modern positional biases when chasing an offensive identity. He added that Tom Brady’s minority‑owner influence and Antonio Pierce’s run‑first coaching mantra point toward a back who can be the face of the rebrand. Jacksonville, drafting one slot earlier, remains a wild card but is openly shopping No. 5, making it more likely Vegas stays put and selects the Boise State star. According to Stevens, “six is the odds‑on landing spot,” and locking in both markets creates a correlated, low‑risk betting portfolio.

Ben Stevens declared Ashton Jeanty a virtual certainty to be selected inside the top 10, advising bettors to pound any pick‑position under that hangs near 9.5. Stevens cited the position’s recent renaissance—Bijan Robinson went 8th in 2023 and Jahmyr Gibbs 12th the same year—while noting there were zero first‑round backs in 2022 or 2024. Jeanty’s three‑down profile, plus a class light on blue‑chip quarterbacks, gives running‑back‑needy teams “real needle‑moving upside” that justifies the premium. Stevens framed Jeanty as the lone offensive skill player outside Cam Ward who can immediately transform an offense, making a slide past pick 10 highly improbable.

Donnie Wrightside urged bettors to target the Chicago Bears at +370 in the ‘team‑to‑draft Ashton Jeanty’ market. He blasted the Raiders (+105) and Jaguars (+195) as laughable fits, noting both clubs just spent first‑round capital on backs (Josh Jacobs’ replacement, Travis Etienne) and have bigger roster holes. By contrast, Chicago already has a franchise quarterback on a rookie deal (Caleb Williams), two high‑end wideouts and a refurbished offensive line—an ecosystem Wrightside believes would unlock Jeanty’s dual‑threat ceiling while preserving the Bears’ cap flexibility. He added that if any of the top‑nine selectors pull the trigger on Jeanty, “fire the entire organization,” doubling down on Chicago as the only logical landing spot inside the top 10.

Donnie Wrightside bought the notion that Ashton Jeanty is worth a pick inside the top 10, calling the Boise State runner "sensational" and a rare dual‑threat talent in what he dubbed "the year of the running back." Jeanty’s position prop opened at 6.5 (under –320) and sits –240 to go top‑10, prices Wrightside believes are justified—IF he lands with a roster ready to win now. He dismissed Titans, Browns, Giants and Patriots as dysfunctional fits, but argued Chicago at No. 9 could unlock Jeanty’s ceiling because the Bears have a franchise QB in Caleb Williams, elite receiving weapons and a refurbished offensive line that could maximize immediate fantasy and real‑life impact. Bettors should consider under 6.5 or team‑to‑draft markets that pair Jeanty with a contender, rather than bottom‑feeders.

Shamim noted heavy professional money on Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty in multiple draft props. Jeanty flipped from +200 to -135 to be the No. 5 pick (held by Jacksonville) and remains the +150 favorite at No. 6 to Las Vegas after opening −125. He is an overwhelming −5000 to be the first running back drafted and has taken twice as much cash as Omarion Hampton in that market. BetMGM also moved the Raiders’ 'first position drafted' prop to RB at −110, with OL a distant +350. Jeanty is even drawing top‑five and top‑ten bets alongside Georgia LB Jalon Walker. Shamim interprets the line movement and handle distribution as a strong indicator that one of the RB‑needy AFC teams will pull the trigger early, making Jeanty a worthwhile short‑price bet both for first RB and for a top‑six landing spot.

Christian Cipollini told The Athletic that BetMGM’s single biggest liability heading into draft week is Ashton Jeanty landing with Jacksonville at No. 5. Jeanty opened +650 to be the fifth pick but has been bet down to +105, while his team‑to‑draft‑him market moved the Jaguars from +4000 long‑shots to +120 co‑favorites after drawing 42 percent of all money wagered. The book has also slashed Jeanty’s draft‑position prop from 6.5 (under at even money) to 6.5 with the under now juiced to ‑500, signalling relentless action that he goes sixth or earlier. Cipollini said, “Jeanty to the Jaguars is the one the book wants to avoid the most… it would hit us in a few different ways.” If you still find Jeanty top‑5 or Jaguars to draft Jeanty at plus odds elsewhere, the market smoke suggests it is worth grabbing before every shop catches up.

Jones mocked Boise State star Ashton jeanty to Las Vegas at No. 6, arguing the Raiders ‘desperately need home‑run hitters’ and see jeanty as the draft’s most explosive skill player. The back led college football in 50‑plus‑yard runs last season—doubling the next‑closest runner—while handling a full three‑down workload. Although Jones personally dislikes drafting RBs this high, he says people inside the organization believe Genti’s combination of burst and receiving chops is exactly what new OC Kliff Kingsbury wants. Wide receiver is also a need, but Jones’ intel suggests Vegas would pounce on Genti if this board scenario materializes.

Thor Nystrom advised bettors to keep hammering Ashton Jeanty at –150 to be the Raiders’ pick at No. 6 because the fit is almost too perfect. Nystrom called Jeanty the best running‑back prospect since Saquon Barkley and asserted he is even a tick better than Bijan Robinson. The Boise State star shattered every broken‑tackle metric in college football, logging 48‑plus more forced misses than the next‑closest runner and finishing with more yards after contact than any FBS back gained in total. Those numbers matter to Las Vegas, whose offensive line is merely average and whose new Pete Carroll/Chip Kelly brain trust wants to re‑establish a downhill identity while easing pressure on rookie QB Geno Smith’s placeholder season. With the draft’s only true skill‑position blue‑chip on the board and every league source expecting the Raiders to address ‘skill help,’ Nystrom believes the current –150 is still a discount before books move the prop into the –250 range.

Jason La Confora urged listeners to leave a little draft‑position money on Ashton Jeanty going fifth overall to Jacksonville. He argued former All‑Pro tackle Tony Boselli now advises ownership and will pound the table for a run‑game tone‑setter after watching Travis Etienne finish 30th in explosive‑run rate. New play‑caller Dave Canales has publicly stressed balancing Trevor Lawrence with a downhill ground game—his Seattle offenses averaged 26 rushes a week with far less talent. La Confora ran the idea by long‑time Jaguars insider Pete Prisco, who confirmed the staff views Jeanty as a “difference maker.” Combining front‑office admiration with the scarcity of true three‑down backs, La Confora believes the +650 to +800 range on Jeanty’s draft slot is mispriced and worth a sprinkle.

Emery Hunt told viewers to sprinkle long‑shot markets on the Bears jumping from 10 into the 6‑8 range to grab Ashton Jeanty. Hunt argued Chicago’s aggressive off‑season in the trenches frees GM Ryan Pace to package pick 39 plus a future third to leapfrog Las Vegas—Jeanty’s other obvious suitor. He compared the move to Atlanta vaulting for Bijan Robinson last year, pointing out that Ben Johnson’s offense hums with a three‑down back who stresses defenses on wheel routes. Hunt thinks the Bears’ current +600 price to be Jeanty’s landing spot underrates the likelihood they pursue a blue‑chip RB instead of settling for Trayvion Henderson on Day 2.

Renner pegged Las Vegas as the best bet to draft Ashton Jeanty, backing the Raiders at +110 to be his eventual NFL home. He explained that Chicago would have to jump from pick 10 to 5— a move that historically costs at least a second‑rounder— and the Bears need those Day‑2 selections to plug multiple roster holes. Las Vegas, by contrast, sits squarely in the Jeanty sweet‑spot, owns extra mid‑round capital, and just hired former Boise State offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan, who recruited Jeanty out of high school. Add in Antonio Pierce’s stated desire to “get more explosive in the backfield,” and Renner sees Vegas as the cleanest path.

Dave Richard called Ashton Jeanty one of the three best overall talents in the 2025 class and predicted he will be selected inside the top‑5 picks. Richard highlighted Jeanty’s historic college production—he nearly eclipsed Barry Sanders’ single‑season rushing record and finished 2024 with more yards after contact than most FBS backs recorded in total rushing yards. Richard compared Jeanty’s potential NFL impact to Saquon Barkley’s role in Philadelphia’s recent title run, arguing that teams are pivoting toward elite backs to punish two‑high defensive looks. Because the league is light on blue‑chip quarterbacks this year, Richard expects franchises to “load up” on the deep running‑back pool, with Jeanty the crown jewel. Bettors looking at draft‑position props or dynasty players searching for the next workhorse should treat Jeanty as a slam‑dunk top‑5 selection.

Connor Allen reminded the audience that he grabbed Ashton Jeanty at 20‑to‑1 in the 4for4 Discord two weeks ago and still likes the RB at 12‑to‑1 to land with New Orleans. He laid out a scenario where Chicago, holding pick 10 and two early second‑rounders, could use that ammo to jump Carolina at 8 and snipe Jeanty—proof that multiple teams value the Boise State back as a fringe top‑10 talent. Allen added that Saints GM Mickey Loomis has shown a willingness to ignore positional value when he loves a prospect (citing the 2022 Chris Olave trade‑up) and that Jeanty’s three‑down skill set would immediately relieve Alvin Kamara’s heavy workload. He called any double‑digit price on Jeanty “mis‑aligned with the league’s view” and worth a speculative wager.

John Middlekauff told bettors to smash the ‘Top 10 Pick’ market on Ashton Jeanty and even sprinkle the +800 Raider‑at‑6 exacta. He believes Jeanty capitalizes on a thin overall board the same way Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson leveraged elite traits into early selections. Middlekauff called Jeanty one of only three non‑quarterbacks with blue‑chip tape in this class—grouping him with Olu Fashanu and Travis Hunter—and said that makes it easy for GMs to talk themselves into a running back despite the position’s devaluation. The former Eagles scout acknowledged the 5‑8 frame raises durability flags but countered with Jeanty’s explosive Boise State film, spotless character grades and multi‑year production that scouts have "loved for two years." With organizations such as Las Vegas (pick 6) and Seattle (pick 7) craving offensive firepower and the draft lacking surefire defensive stars, Middlekauff sees a clear path for Jeanty to crash the top 10 and thinks any number longer than +150 is stealing.