Will Hill bet Ashton Jeanty Under 68.5 rushing yards. Although the rookie logged 19 carries in Week 1, he produced only 38 yards, and now faces a Chargers front that limited opposing running backs to 41 yards last week. Hill thinks the market overreacted to volume and is ignoring Las Vegas’ shaky offensive line.

Hill played Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 rushing attempts. The sixth overall pick now works for new Raiders coach Pete Carroll, a noted run-first disciple. Hill believes Carroll will lean heavily on his prized back right out of the gate, especially in a matchup where Las Vegas projects to control neutral-situation snaps. That volume should clear the modest attempts prop.

Chris Allen said Ashton Jeanty should be treated as a legitimate first-round selection from the 1.11 because his collegiate resume and the current Raiders depth chart point to immediate three-down usage. Allen highlighted Jeanty’s 215-plus pound frame, 16% college target share, and 87th-percentile yards after contact numbers as evidence he can handle both early-down grinding and passing-game work. Las Vegas has historically funneled volume to one runner—Josh Jacobs averaged 21.2 touches per game in 2022—and the front office added no serious competition behind Jeanty. With that workhorse path and a projected 13.2 PPR points per game before any receiving bonuses, Allen labeled Jeanty an RB1 you can confidently build a Robust-RB start around.

Sam Wallace advised taking Ashton Jeanty ahead of Derrick Henry because of the rookie’s projected passing-game role and fresher legs. Fantasy Life projections give Henry only 18 receptions but slot Jeanty for 50, a 32-point swing in full PPR scoring. Both backs carry early Round-2 price tags on Underdog (Jeanty RB5, Henry RB6), yet Wallace notes Henry already has 2,355 career carries while the 21-year-old Jeanty could top 400 total opportunities in Year 1. He concedes Las Vegas owns one of the league’s lowest implied point totals and that Jeanty opened the preseason with 3 carries for –1 yard, but argues the new coaching staff plans to funnel the offense through its "generational" back. The combination of receiving volume, every-down workload, and outsized upside makes Jeanty Wallace’s preferred pick in both best-ball and season-long formats.

Tom Strachan cautioned drafters against taking Ashton Jeanty in the first round. Since 1984 only one first-year back—Saquon Barkley in 2018—has finished as the overall RB1, highlighting the historical uphill climb Jeanty faces. Strachan noted that Las Vegas already features premium pass-catchers Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, plus longtime goal-line poacher Raheem Mostert, all of whom siphon opportunities. Jeanty’s talent is unquestioned, but Strachan expects touch competition and red-zone vulturing to keep him from returning first-round value in year one.

McFarland declared Ashton Jeanty "primed for a massive workload" after the rookie owned 93% of first-team snaps, every rushing attempt, and a 75% route rate on Geno Smith’s two drives, turning seven touches into 45 yards and a score. With Raheem Mostert limited to passing-down cameos and Zamir White relegated to mop-up duty, McFarland sees no realistic challenger to Jeanty’s three-down role. He ranks the Boise State product as an RB1 fringe option that can still be drafted as an RB2 in both Season-Long and Best-Ball formats.

Hayden Winks advised fantasy managers to let someone else draft Ashton Jeanty at his current early-first-round home-league cost. Winks keeps Jeanty 19th in his running-back ranks (Josh has him ninth) not because of the preseason stat line of three carries for minus one yard but because he expects the Raiders’ offensive line to be one of the league’s worst run-blocking units. He views the environment as significantly worse than what Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs inherit on their new teams, capping Jeanty’s touchdown opportunities and yards-after-contact upside. Until Las Vegas shows functional blocking, Winks prefers proven veterans going in the same range and sees Jeanty as an avoid at ADP rather than a buy-low after a meaningless preseason box score.

Cooter Doodle recommended holding Ashton Jeanty rather than panicking over his preseason line of three carries for minus one yard. She pointed to Jeanty’s "top five all-time score" in Dwain McFarland’s Super Model as proof of his talent and reminded readers that preseason overreactions often age poorly once the regular season begins. Doodle expects Jeanty’s ADP to slide in upcoming drafts, giving current shareholders no incentive to dump him and offering late drafters a potential discount if the rookie’s ability wins out as she expects.

Brandon Myers noted the Raiders added veteran linemen and drafted potential starters while pairing Pete Carroll’s ground tendencies with Chip Kelly’s creativity. He believes the rookie’s elite college résumé makes him the easy pick for league-winning upside in the RB6-RB20 tier.

Pat Fitzmaurice tied Jeanty’s outlook to Chip Kelly’s history of force-feeding RBs, recalling LeSean McCoy’s 314- and 312-carry seasons. With Kelly running the Raiders at tempo, Fitzmaurice is "giddy" about Jeanty’s rookie workload and RB1 potential.

Ted Chmyz called Jeanty a generational prospect who faces zero backfield competition. Even at RB6 ADP, Chmyz feels Jeanty has more upside than several backs drafted ahead of him because he can dominate on both the ground and through the air from Day 1.

Freedman is fading Ashton Jeanty at RB5 prices (ADP 10.8) despite projecting a hefty 227 carries, 70 targets, and 213.3 points (RB10). He expects the Raiders offense to be middling, limiting Jeanty’s touchdown and yardage ceiling. While that three-down role supplies a high floor similar to Bijan Robinson’s rookie year, Freedman thinks paying a first-round tax for a back on a mediocre team is a poor risk-reward bet.

Sean Koerner called Ashton Jeanty a generational prospect whose floor is a top-10 fantasy back from day one because the Raiders plan to give him every snap he can handle. Koerner expects true three-down usage—including pass-game work—citing Jenty’s college receiving chops and lack of real backfield competition. The only ding in Koerner’s projections is touchdown upside: he puts Jenty’s odds of reaching double-digit scores just below 50 percent on a Raiders offense Vegas expects to be below average. That risk could vanish if veteran Geno Smith stabilizes the unit and rookie Brock Bowers juices the red-zone attack. Koerner advised drafting Jenty inside the top five overall and sees an RB1-overall ceiling with almost no paths to regret outside of injury.

Chris Allen said fantasy managers drafting from pick 1.07 should smash the button on Ashton Jeanty and build a Hero-RB roster around him. The Boise State product earned top-6 NFL draft capital from the Raiders and has only a 33-year-old backup behind him, so touches are essentially locked in. Allen highlighted Jeanty’s eye-popping college tape—he generated more yards AFTER contact than every other FBS back recorded in total yardage last year—and noted that Fantasy Life projections slot him for 238.5 carries (7th among RBs), 65 targets (5th) and 246.4 PPR points (6th). That workload gives Jeanty immediate top-8 overall upside with very little situational risk, making him the clear choice once the consensus top six players are gone.

Marcas Grant warned that Ashton Jeanty’s Round-1 RB5 price tag ignores Las Vegas’ scoring woes. The Raiders ranked fourth-worst in points in 2024 while finishing fourth in pass attempts, a mix that invites negative game scripts and limits rushing TD chances. Grant highlighted that nine of the first 12 RBs drafted come from top-15 scoring offenses; Jeanty is one of the few exceptions. He expects volume but not the touchdown profile required of a top-five back and advised passing at current ADP.

McFarland urges drafters to take Jeanty in the mid-to-late first round (consensus ADP 10.3). Selected 6th overall, Jeanty faces only 33-year-old Raheem Mostert and is "on a path to 75% of carries". His 91 Rookie Super Model grade trails only Barkley and Fournette all-time; those comps averaged 21.6 PPG as rookies. Three of five similar backs finished top-6 immediately, and the two who didn’t (McCaffrey, Bijan) exploded in Year 2 when freed from committee constraints Jeanty won’t face.

Billy Ward warned drafters that FantasyLabs ranks Ashton Jeanty as RB16 despite an 8.8 ADP. He cited a 6.5 team win total, an unsettled quarterback room and limited offensive firepower that cap touchdown equity. Ward also noted Jeanty is projected to lose some passing-down work, dampening half-PPR scoring. The staff’s wider WR preference further pressures his rank, leading Ward to fade Jeanty at current price.

Kevin Szafraniec said Ashton Jeanty is positioned for an every-down role in Las Vegas and even floated that he could challenge for the NFL lead in touches this season. Szafraniec’s case rests on two pillars: talent and situation. Jeanty nearly broke Barry Sanders’ single-season college rushing record in 2024, logged back-to-back top-five "rushing points earned per play" seasons, and never fell below 4.2 yards after contact per carry. His career evasion rate stayed above 33%, and he broke tackles at roughly a 2-to-1 rate over forced missed tackles, underscoring the power in his compact frame. The receiving profile is just as robust—23% of Boise State’s receiving yards on a 13.4% target share, a 97.7% catch rate on 45 catchable targets, and a 149.4 receiver rating in 2023. Jeanty posted a 95 in the RotoViz RB Prospect Lab, the best mark in this class, and Szafraniec likened his statistical uniqueness to LaDainian Tomlinson. With the Raiders spending the sixth overall pick on him and lacking established weapons outside of Brock Bowers, Szafraniec expects the coaching staff to funnel volume through Jeanty right away, making him a priority Season-Long and Best Ball target with legitimate top-five positional upside.

Shawn Siegele said rookie Ashton Jeanty is a justifiable first-round redraft pick because he projects for true workhorse volume in Las Vegas. Siegele floated a realistic path to 350 carries and 100 targets, predicting Jeanty will finish the season with the highest expected points of any running back. He backed it up with the Boise State star’s outrageous collegiate peripherals: a 33 percent evasion rate, yards-after-contact rising from 4.2 to 4.7, and 3.9 yards per route run—tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the second-best mark by an RB over the past five years. Siegele noted Brock Bowers will pull defensive attention and the Raiders’ overall offensive environment should be “dramatically better,” giving Jeanty a clear runway to combine elite workload with plus efficiency. If the rookie manages even middling fantasy points over expectation (+2 to +3), Siegele believes he could be the single best pick in 2025 redraft leagues.

Whalen ranked rookie Ashton Jeanty directly behind Henry in Tier 2, citing talent and projected volume. He called Jeanty a better prospect than Leonard Fournette and noted multiple first-year backs (e.g., Ezekiel Elliott 2016) who immediately delivered RB1 numbers. The Raiders backfield is wide open, and Whalen expects Jeanty to ‘see a ton of work’ from Week 1, making him an upside pick despite lacking NFL proof of concept.

Matt Price advised holding Ashton Jeanty through the preseason but being ready to sell the moment he posts a monster game. He argued that Jeanty’s current cost is already high, yet a Week-1 stat line such as 150 yards and two touchdowns would push the sophomore back to consensus RB1 in devy rankings. At that point Price would shop him for a multi-asset return like Amariyon Hampton plus a 2025 first, turning one risky running-back prospect into two safer building blocks while the market irrationally chases the hot name.

Josh Norris said Ashton Jeanty’s late-Round-1 ADP still makes sense if you understand the two ways he can smash. First, the “Chip Kelly bump” – Norris thinks the betting market could be three-plus points light on the Raiders because handicappers struggle with brand-new play-callers, quarterbacks, and schemes. If Vegas has mis-projected and the offense jumps merely to league-average, Jeanty’s red-zone outlook improves overnight. Second, Jeanty may simply catch 75-80 passes regardless of team scoring thanks to his proven receiving chops and Geno Smith’s propensity to work underneath. Those receptions would offset a modest touchdown total and put him on the Jonathan Taylor trajectory. Norris acknowledged the downside – Jeanty’s goal-line share could lag behind workhorse backs like Derrick Henry, who is going two picks later on a Ravens offense projected for the NFL’s second-most points – but maintained the dual upside paths make Jeanty worth the risk in both best-ball tournaments and traditional drafts.

Josh Norris said he is comfortable selecting Ashton Jeanty at the Round-1/2 turn even though Vegas projects the Raiders as a bottom-six scoring team. He cited Chip Kelly’s historic top-10 rush-rate regardless of point output and believes Jeanty could approach 300 touches with only Raheem Mostert and Zamir White behind him. Jeanty’s 49-catch season at Boise State suggests three-down capability, giving him a sturdy floor if touchdowns lag. Norris acknowledged ceiling concerns but argued that a modest three-point bump in team scoring would make Jeanty a justifiable early-round pick.

James Koh said Ashton Jeanty could not have landed in a more ideal spot. Chip Kelly’s Raider offense ran man-gap on 85 % of college snaps, and Jeanty posted a 60 % success rate on man-gap concepts and a ridiculous 94.7 % success rate when those runs went to the outside. His 79 % success rate on outside carries was best in the rookie class. Koh emphasized that Antonio Pierce wants to pound the rock and that Kelly has a long track record of producing big-time fantasy backs. Given the coaching philosophy, outside-run tendency, and Jeanty’s tackle-breaking profile, Koh graded the match a “15 out of 10” and called him a smash season-long target with every-down potential.

Ward explained why the projection team ranks Jeanty RB16 despite his 8.8 ADP. The Raiders carry a 6.5 win total, lack an established quarterback, and project for limited red-zone trips. Jeanty is also expected to cede most passing-down work, further capping his Best Ball ceilings on a squad that will frequently trail.

Davis Mattek predicted an extremely concentrated Raiders offense where rookie RB Ashton Jeanty and sophomore TE Brock Bowers soak up more than half of all team touches, making both smash picks at their aggressive ADPs. Projection models peg the backfield for only 354 carries and Bowers for 147 targets, but Mattek thinks those are floors, pointing to Chip Kelly’s historical willingness to funnel work to his best players (he referenced Trey McBride’s post-staff-change ‘spam’ usage as a parallel). With a shallow depth chart—Jack Bash, Trey Tucker, Dante Thornton, Tommy Mellott, Michael Mayer, and Ian Thomas are the next options—Mattek sees little threat to Jeanty's goal-line work or Bowers’ near-10-targets-per-game expectation. He is comfortable spending a first- and early-second-round pick on the duo individually, though he rarely drafts them together because Week 17 correlation is "not super optimal."

Davis Mattek called Ashton Jeanty a justifiable first-round pick on Underdog, insisting the rookie’s workload will dwarf every early projection. The Raiders are penciled in for 354 running-back carries—roughly in line with last season’s volume—and Chip Kelly’s offenses have finished top-11 in both rush and pass attempts in three of his four NFL seasons. Mattek argued that fourth-overall draft capital guarantees every-down usage, projecting 18-plus touches per game and plenty of red-zone work in an offense that Vegas still prices modestly. Because sportsbooks tend to regress rookies toward the mean, Gente’s current props leave room for a 10+ touchdown, 1,400-scrimmage-yard outcome that would crush his ADP and pay off Offensive Rookie of the Year tickets. Mattek thinks both Jeanty and Brock Bowers beat their median lines, but he avoids taking them together in best-ball finals for Week-17 ceiling correlation reasons.

Chris Liss is perfectly comfortable spending a top-10 overall pick on rookie Ashton Jeanty after the Raiders grabbed him sixth in the NFL Draft. Liss expects Pete Carroll to recreate the Marshawn Lynch blueprint, projecting roughly 300 carries plus 40-60 receptions for Jeanty— elite touch volume that makes him a threat to lead the league in usage. Jeanty cleared Liss’s 20-catch college threshold with 43 receptions in 2023 and showed true three-down chops. Carroll’s historical RB1 averages 20.8 carries and 2.6 targets per game; plug those numbers into a Vegas offense that now leans on play-action and you have first-round fantasy equity. Liss said Jeanty could justifiably be taken 1.01 but is usually available around pick 8-10, calling that discount "found money" for any season-long drafter willing to bet on rookie running-back immediacy.

JSU warned drafters to pump the brakes on rookie Ashton Jeanty at his current 7-to-8 overall ADP. Jeanty is coming off the board as RB4, so you basically need him to finish as the overall RB1 or RB2 to justify that slot. JSU noted that Saquon, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and sometimes Derrick Henry are already going ahead of him, meaning Jeanty would have to jump almost every established star at the position as a first-year back on the Raiders. In a year where running backs are regaining some draft capital, JSU thinks paying first-round prices for a rookie who still has landing-spot and workload questions is a bet with more downside than upside in Best Ball tournaments.

Conner Allen endorsed Ashton Jeanty at 4-1 for OROY, calling it the last playable price before the market craters. Allen argued that Chip Kelly’s arrival as offensive coordinator all but guarantees a run-first identity and noted that Las Vegas averaged the league’s fifth-highest rush rate inside the 10 last year. With only the oft-injured Sincere McCormick and aging Notre Dame alum Audric Estime behind him, Jeanty projects for a 75-80 % touch share from Day 1. Allen expects 300 total touches, citing Kelly’s Ohio State backs averaging 27.1 opportunities per game in 2023. If the Raiders flirt with eight or nine wins, Allen believes Jeanty’s raw volume—he threw out 1,400 scrimmage yards and 12-plus TDs—would make him the clear narrative favorite over quarterback candidates.

Koerner projected sixth-overall pick Ashton Jeanty for immediate bell-cow volume in a Pete Carroll-Chip Kelly marriage that screams run-heavy. Carroll has historically ranked top-5 in neutral-script rush rate and, according to Koerner, specifically lobbied for Jeanty 96th-percentile burst to recreate the Marshawn Lynch era. Kelly’s collegiate offenses funneled 22-25 touches per game to a lead back and his lone NFL season calling plays for Philly produced a league-high 321 carries for LeSean McCoy. Koerner dismissed concerns about Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers siphoning red-zone looks, noting that Kelly still fed McCoy 59 targets alongside a prime Jordan Matthews in 2014. With Jeanty already taking first-team reps and reporting weight-room numbers north of 600-lb squats, Koerner ranked him RB11 in early projections and urged taking him as early as Round 2 in redraft and best-ball formats.

Wilson gushed that new head coach Pete Carroll is the best thing to happen to the Raiders in years and called No. 6 overall pick Ashton Jeanty ‘so incredibly special’. With Geno Smith expected to pilot an offense that already features Brock Bowers plus rookie wideouts Jack Bech and Dante Thornton, Wilson sees Jeanty facing light boxes and plenty of red-zone looks. The only caution is workload management—Carroll cannot overuse him—but Wilson still expects ‘an enormous year’ and would not be surprised if Jeanty wins Offensive Rookie of the Year. Fantasy/betting nugget: target Jeanty aggressively in dynasty and season-long drafts and sprinkle OROY futures before his price shortens in camp.

Andy Holloway revealed his early projection for rookie Ashton Jeanty at a jaw-dropping 1,653 total yards (1,232 rushing) in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo Raiders offense. Holloway noted Vegas’ league-leading play-pace under Kelly, Jeanty’s three-down collegiate skill set, and a depth chart featuring only career backups behind him. He expects heavy check-down volume from Gardner Minshew, pushing Jeanty near 50 receptions. With that workload, Holloway sees Jeanty’s Underdog ADP settling inside the top-five backs and believes the rookie is a legitimate RB1 candidate in both redraft and best-ball formats.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound argued that Underdog’s 1,049.5-yard rushing/receiving pick’em line for Ashton Jeanty effectively confirms bell-cow usage and makes him a steal when he slips past 1.07 in campus-to-Canton and CFB best-ball drafts. Pat noted that Jeanty’s yardage prop matches Bucky Irving’s despite Irving going 4–5 picks earlier and even mirrors Zamir White’s NFL rookie line from last year, suggesting the books expect an identical workload. Because Boise State returns four starting offensive linemen and projects as a double-digit favorite in nine of twelve games, Pat sees a path to 250+ touches and double-digit scores. If the books are willing to hang a Zamir-White-sized number on Jeanty in May, drafters should trust that signal and treat him as a top-eight overall asset rather than a late-first swing.

Sam Monson said Ashton Jeanty is one of the best running-back prospects of the past 15 years and justified Las Vegas taking him sixth overall. Monson highlighted Jeanty 150-plus missed tackles forced on 370 touches last season, calling him "impossible to tackle" and praising his low-centered power and underrated receiving chops shown in 2023. He framed the decision with a three-question flow chart—existing run-game infrastructure, opportunity cost versus non-blue-chip options at other positions, and willingness to pay a top-15 RB salary—and answered “yes” to all three, arguing the offense already has a solid, improving line and Geno Smith under center for at least three years. Monson concluded that the surplus-value math is close but the talent gap is wide enough to make Jeanty a viable fantasy bell-cow immediately and a dynasty cornerstone despite the usual running-back contract concerns.

Pat Kerrane said managers lucky enough to land Ashton Jeanty at the 1.01 should plan to keep him unless they receive a literal Godfather offer. Kerrane noted that Jeanty is already going in the first round of early best-ball drafts and cited Dewey McFarland’s ceiling projection of 22 fantasy points per game as evidence the rookie can produce RB1 numbers immediately. He framed Jeanty as the rare dynasty back who combines elite projected production with an age profile well below the RB apex, making him both a weekly difference-maker and a year-over-year store of value. Because upside bell-cow running backs are scarce, Kerrane argued the only rational reason to trade out of Jeantyi is if a rebuilding roster can secure three or more future firsts and additional assets. Otherwise, he is the easy 1.01 and a hold in every format.

Rich Cooling said Ashton Jeanty is the lone five-star, 99th-percentile prospect in his entire rookie model. Despite what he called an "average" landing spot, Dentee received elite draft capital and profiles as a day-one workhorse who should score like an immediate RB1 in any dynasty format. Cooling labeled him the only true generational talent in this class and insisted managers should not overthink the 1.01—take Dentee and lock in year-one production plus long-term ceiling.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on early-summer hype that has Ashton Jeanty flirting with a top-5 overall ADP. While he still loves the bell-cow projection in Las Vegas, Kerrane argued Jeanty should not be drafted over Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs— backs in equally strong or better situations who have already flashed elite NFL ceilings. He is comfortable taking Jeanty sixth overall, ideally seventh, and hopes market stabilisers like Establish The Run temper enthusiasm so he can scoop the rookie at picks 8–9 and build overweight exposure. Kerrane compared the pricing debate to the 2022 Jonathan Taylor vs. Christian McCaffrey stalemate: upside is undeniable, but opportunity cost at the very top is brutal if volume assumptions wobble. His plan is to hammer Jeanty whenever he falls behind CeeDee Lamb, but pass when the market gets out over its skis.

Davis Mattek projected that Ashton Jeanty will settle in as the 1.07 pick in Best Ball Mania drafts—immediately after CeeDee Lamb and ahead of Puka Nacua—following the Raiders selecting him sixth overall. Mattek emphasized the vacuum Jeanty is walking into: the only backs under contract are Raheem Mostert, Zamir White and futures-deal depth pieces like Sincere McCormick, giving the rookie a clear runway to Ezekiel Elliott-level volume. He sketched out a 280-carry, 50-to-65-target rookie workload, noting Pete Carroll’s win-now mindset at age 74 and Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense that historically funnels check-downs to running backs. High-value touches should be consolidated—Mostert might poach three TDs, but Jeanty will dominate goal-line work and third-down snaps. Mattek even entertained taking Jeanty ahead of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in home leagues, arguing the rookie’s prospect profile and immediate bell-cow role rival what Elliott and Saquon Barkley enjoyed as rookies. While acknowledging a tilt-inducing week where Mostert steals a score, Mattek called Jeanty a slam-dunk RB1 whose combination of early-down volume and pass-game usage justifies an early-first click in all best-ball and season-long formats.

Sean Koerner called Ashton Jeanty a "generational talent" who should be treated as a mid-range RB1 immediately. Drafted sixth overall by Las Vegas, Jeanty walks into what Koerner labeled a "wide, wide-open backfield" with no credible competition for touches. With Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly running a historically run-heavy offense, Koerner expects a true three-down workload—think 18-22 carries plus 3-4 targets per week. Jeanty is already coming off the board as RB4 in early best-ball drafts; Koerner initially slotted him at RB7 but said he "can’t fault you" for taking him as a top-five overall pick because running backs hit their prime right away and this landing spot maximizes rookie-year volume, touchdown equity, and ceiling.

Mike Wright celebrated Ashton Gentry going sixth overall to Las Vegas, noting that top-10 draft capital virtually locks in a three-down role—every first-round RB since 2015 has averaged at least 16 touches per game as a rookie. Wright highlighted Chip Kelly’s historical 30.2 rush attempts per game and willingness to feed one back (remember LeSean McCoy’s 314-carry season) as evidence Gentry could flirt with 275 touches right away. The Raiders fortified the line with two day-two tackles and surrounded Geno Smith with Brock Bowers and second-round slot machine Jack Besh, forcing defenses to respect the pass. Gentry’s 96th-percentile burst and 58 college catches give him both goal-line and passing-down equity. Wright placed him RB14 in redraft ranks and the 1.02 in rookie drafts behind only Marvin Harrison Jr., comparing the ceiling to rookie-year Saquon in an offense "suddenly dripping with yak monsters."

Eric Polzin said Ashton Jeanty is the slam-dunk 1.01 in 2025 dynasty rookie drafts because the Raiders drafted him to be their every-down tone-setter. Polzin pointed out the current depth chart lacks a true passing-down back, so even the only "knock" on Jeanty – that he might cede third-down work – could evaporate once camp starts. He compared the rookie’s skill set to the Pete Carroll archetype of Marshawn Lynch and Chris Carson and noted that Carroll (now running the Raiders) traded for Geno Smith because he wants to win immediately, meaning a heavy dose of early-down runs. Chip Kelly’s arrival as offensive coordinator adds juice: in Kelly’s four previous NFL seasons his offenses ranked 1st, 9th, 14th, and 4th in rushing yards. With the offense likely to funnel through Jeanty , Polzin expects a bell-cow workload from day one and labeled him the most valuable non-QB asset for the next several years in dynasty formats.

Davis Mattek forecast a near-Ezekiel-Elliott rookie season for Ashton Jeanty under 74-year-old Pete Carroll and new OC Chip Kelly. Mattek projected roughly 280 carries and 50–65 targets—scaled from Zeke’s 322/39 rookie split—because the Raiders’ current depth chart is bare (Mostert, White, McCormick, reserve-futures names) and the entire coaching staff is in win-now mode. He emphasized Kelly’s up-tempo scheme historically feeds running backs in the passing game and generates extra total plays, giving Jeanty a stranglehold on high-value touches. Mattek compared the organizational urgency to Dallas leaning on Elliott in 2016 and argued Vegas will happily burn Jeanty’s tread to beat Denver and chase a 9-win season. While acknowledging a few annoying Rahim Mostert goal-line vultures, he still projected a realistic RB1 overall outcome and is comfortable drafting Jeanty immediately after CeeDee Lamb in Best Ball and Season-Long leagues—just not over Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, whose proven production bumps them a hair higher.

Pat Kerrane said the market will treat Ashton Jeanty as a top-seven overall pick the moment Underdog’s Best Ball Mania opens. He slotted the rookie RB directly after CeeDee Lamb and ahead of Puka Nacua because Las Vegas spent the No. 6 pick on him and added no threatening backfield competition besides 32-year-old Raheem Mostert and depth guys Zamir White and Sincere McCormick. Using final Big Board ADP gaps—Gibbs at 4.8, Lamb at 6.0, Nacua at 7.9—Kerrane expects Jeanty to settle around 7.0. He already held 12 % exposure pre-draft and will comfortably draft Jeanty at that price, noting the rookie’s elite comps and three-down profile. Kerrane would still take Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs first because they are proven pros, but in standard one-QB Best Ball formats he views Jeanty as the clear tier break between Lamb and Nacua.

Jason Moore said the Jaguars and Raiders are running a coordinated ‘smoke-coverage’ campaign to make everyone think Ashton Jeanty will come off the board at picks 5 or 7. Moore believes those decoys let Jeanty slide to pick 10, where Chicago pounces. He noted GM Ryan Poles already paired Caleb Williams with elite pass-catchers, but still needs a true three-down back after relying on the Roschon Johnson/D’Onta Foreman platoon that ranked 26th in EPA per rush. Jeanty’s 36 percent team-touch share, class-best 0.41 missed tackles forced per carry, and 54 receptions show he can own both early-down and passing-down work immediately. Moore said dynasty managers holding the 1.01 will do cartwheels if this happens, projecting low-end RB1 volume right away in Shane Waldron’s outside-zone attack that generated the league’s fifth-highest rushing success rate last year.

Jason Moore countered that the Raiders will snag Jeanty with the seventh overall pick, insisting both Jacksonville and Las Vegas are throwing up pre-draft smokescreens to coax a trade. Moore believes Antonio Pierce wants to replace Josh Jacobs’ 300-touch role with a true bell-cow after watching last year’s committee average a paltry 3.7 yards per carry. He cited Jeanty’s 91st-percentile burst score and 54-catch season as proof he can stay on the field for all three downs, something Zamir White and Alexander Mattison failed to provide. Moore added that the Raiders have hosted Jeanty for a top-30 visit and have the cap space to keep the offensive line intact, giving the rookie immediate RB2 volume with RB1 upside in redraft and best ball formats.

Holloway staked a bold claim that Boise State star Ashton Jeanty will be taken by Jacksonville at pick 5. He cited multiple league insiders—most notably Peter Schrager’s morning “lock”—saying the Jaguars want a premier skill-position piece for new OC Liam Coen. Holloway noted that Jeanty led all FBS backs with 36 percent of his team’s scrimmage yards and forced 0.41 missed tackles per rush, metrics that dwarf Travis Etienne’s collegiate profile. He believes Doug Pederson wants a true three-down hammer to pair with Etienne’s perimeter burst, similar to how Pederson deployed Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard in Philadelphia. Dynasty managers holding the 1.01 should prep for Jeanty to leapfrog the rookie class if this landing spot materializes; Etienne drafters would need to brace for a significant touch squeeze.

Chris Raybon sees value in the Team-to-Draft markets for Ashton Gentry and grabbed Denver at 17-1 (and a smaller flyer on Dallas at 29-1). League buzz has the Broncos actively calling about moving up—most mocks assume it’s for Amarion Hampton, but Raybon believes their true target is the class’s only surefire top-10 RB. Denver’s roster screams for a bell-cow after last year’s committee disappointed, and Sean Payton historically invests early when he identifies a difference-maker (see Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara). If Jacksonville locks in on Gentry at 5, Raybon expects George Paton to leapfrog them; the 17-1 price bakes in far less than the 6% probability he assigns to that scenario.

Kanell stated he personally started the rumor that Chicago will trade into the top 3-4 picks to secure Ashton Jeanty. His reasoning: new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson comes from Detroit’s two-back system and has already telegraphed a run-heavy identity by investing heavily in offensive line upgrades. Kanell considers Jeanty the clear RB1 of the class—"as good as the Lions’ two backs combined"—and the final piece to a physical, ball-control offense. Bettors looking at first-running-back or team-to-draft props should monitor Bears steam, as Kanell is confident Chicago’s front office is telegraphing its intentions.

Dave Richard called Ashton Jeanty an "absolute fire‑starter" who could be drafted inside the first 12 picks of 2025 fantasy leagues—maybe even ahead of Christian McCaffrey—if he lands with Denver, Chicago or Las Vegas. Richard pointed to Jeanty’s 2024 season, where he recorded the second‑most rushing yards in FBS history while catching 43 passes in 2023, to illustrate his every‑down profile. He highlighted Sean Payton’s track record with dual‑threat backs (Kamara, Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush) as a perfect scheme fit in Denver. Even a "worst‑case" landing spot like Jacksonville would still keep Jeanty in Round 1 discussions, though Richard would then lean McCaffrey slightly. Bryant McFadden added that Jeanty’s elite contact balance and one‑cut quickness mean defenders rarely bring him down on first contact, reinforcing the belief that he will be an immediate fantasy stud regardless of destination.

James Weaver said Ashton Jeanty's steam to Jacksonville at No. 5 has opened a betting window on him going one spot earlier at No. 4. Weaver noted that the Patriots own the fourth pick, have openly shopped it for additional assets, and that RB-needy teams such as the Bears could leapfrog the Jaguars to secure the draft’s only first-round calibre running back. With FanDuel hanging +525 on Jeanty to be the exact 4th selection, Weaver views the combination of Jacksonville’s obvious interest, New England’s willingness to trade back, and multiple suitors behind the Jags as the second-most likely outcome and worth a bet at better than 5-to-1.