Adam Levitan will not touch Bo Nix at 35-1 on DraftKings but called the 75-1 still hanging at FanDuel ‘worth a sprinkle.’ His thesis: Sean Payton coaxed a top-12 DVOA offense from a broken Russell Wilson and now gets a rookie he hand-picked. If Kansas City stumbles and Denver steals the AFC West with 13 wins, voters will credit the new quarterback. Levitan added that Payton’s offenses historically rank top-five in pass rate over expectation, giving Nix counting stats that matter to MVP voters. He advised locking the 75-1 before market makers bake in training-camp buzz.

Pete Overzet pushed back against worries that Bo Nix’s rookie success was schedule-driven and said the market is still underestimating his 2024 ceiling at an ADP just inside pick 100. Overzet likes how Sean Payton loosened the reins late last year, noting Denver averaged 26.1 points over Nix’s final five starts after sitting below 20 before the shift. He highlighted several offseason upgrades—Evan Engram and Pat Bryant as middle-of-field targets plus a "legit run game" to keep defenses honest—that should allow Payton to lean into an RPO-heavy, vertical approach. Nix already showed a top-12 fantasy profile (big arm + 55th-percentile speed score), so even a modest volume bump makes weekly spike weeks realistic. The only downside Overzet mentioned is a potentially dominant defense shortening games, but he still projects a "pretty big jump" for both Nix and the Broncos offense and likes pairing him with cheap pieces such as Courtland Sutton in Best Ball Mania drafts.

Billy Jones said Bo Nix has finally drifted into the sweet spot for two–quarterback best-ball builds. Nix opened Big Board season hovering around pick 95—often going NEXT to Patrick Mahomes—but after Denver passed on adding skill talent besides Pat Bryant and tight end Evan Engram his ADP is sliding toward the 11th round. Jones argued that at this new price drafters can pair Nix’s dual-threat profile (14 rushing TDs at Oregon last year) with one elite passer and comfortably stop at two quarterbacks. Sean Payton projects a top-10 neutral-situation pass rate and the Broncos return four starting linemen, so Jones sees a clear path to 20-point spike weeks once the rookie settles in. He is scooping Nix any time he falls past QB20, calling it “cheap late-season upside that rescues a roster spot.”