Chris Raybon recommended Breece Hall under 5.5 rushing touchdowns at ‑150 on DraftKings. Hall has never topped five rush TDs despite playing 16 and 17 games the past two seasons, and Raybon expects his volume to be squeezed from several angles. Rookie bruiser Braylon Allen profiles as a short-yardage hammer who could siphon goal-line carries, while new quarterback Justin Fields is a proven red-zone runner who scored 14 rushing TDs the last three years. OC Tanner Engstrand showed a willingness to committee backs in Detroit, fueling concern Hall’s share of inside-the-five carries dips even if New York leans run-heavy overall. Raybon projects Hall to miss two or three games—more in line with his career usage—which would require an unrealistic spike in TD rate to clear this prop. Put it all together and the path to six rushing scores looks narrow.

Jason Moore argued that Breece Hall is undervalued because his receiving role insulates him from the Jets’ uncertain quarterback play. Hall is one of only a handful of backs averaging at least five targets and 13 carries per game, and Moore expects that number to hold or climb with so many vacated wide-receiver targets behind Garrett Wilson. Even if New York’s offense stalls, dump-offs will keep Hall’s weekly floor high. Moore advised taking advantage of Hall’s slide in drafts, viewing him as a high-end RB1 you can get at an RB2 price.

Jim Coventry called Breece Hall a steal because he is being drafted outside the top-12 running backs even though talent and workload point to a top-five finish. Hall’s 2024 dip—career-low 4.2 YPC and inconsistent yards after contact—was explained by Hall himself: he played the entire season with a sprained MCL. Coventry dismissed talk of a Jets timeshare, arguing that a healthy Hall is too good to come off the field and that no backup on the roster can command meaningful touches. Given Hall’s pre-injury dominance and the return to full health, Coventry advised fantasy managers to scoop him up confidently at his depressed ADP.

Mike Wright cautioned that Breece Hall’s third-round ADP ignores the Jets’ projected futility. Vegas sets New York’s win total at 5.5, and the team ranks dead last in rushing attempts inside the 10 over the past two seasons. Hall’s receiving chops keep him draftable, but Wright believes the offense’s red-zone anemia makes him a dangerous early-round pick.

Freedman nudged Breece Hall down to RB19 and placed him on his personal do-not-draft list. With Justin Fields at quarterback the Jets project as a slow, run-heavy but inefficient unit. Fields’ scramble tendency siphons check-downs and goal-line carries, while emerging power back Braelon Allen is expected to steal early-down work. Those overlap concerns led Freedman to warn drafters that Hall’s 2025 ceiling is capped and his floor far shakier than his mid-second-round ADP implies.

Allen recommended fading Breece Hall at the 3.12 turn despite consensus ADP putting him there. Although Hall still projects for 225.4 PPR points, Allen is worried about two red flags: (1) the quality of the Jets offense, which drags down touchdown equity, and (2) Braelon Allen’s potential ‘ascension’ that could siphon early-down work. Because Hall’s value is tied almost entirely to a three-down role, Allen argues that drafters should pivot to sturdier profiles—namely Alvin Kamara or even TreVeyon Henderson—rather than risk getting stuck with a shaky RB1 after 22 more players come off the board.

Josh Norris advised fading Breece Hall at his early-fourth ADP after preseason usage and coach quotes pointed to a two- or even three-back committee. Hall has ceded every third-down snap and most short-yardage work to Isaiah Davis and Braylon Allen, the latter of whom posted better broken-tackle and success-rate numbers last year. Norris compared Hall’s projected 2025 role to 2023 James Cook—between-the-20s work on a far worse offense—and ranked him behind Kenneth Walker, Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, James Conner and Travian Henderson in the Underdog Top-150. In their guide Hall sits near 50th overall, a round-four/five value, while current drafts push him ahead of more reliable backs. He warned that inefficiency or injury could push Hall to a No. 2 or No. 3 depth-chart role by fantasy playoff weeks.

Andy Holloway repeated that he is out on Breece Hall at his current ADP of roughly 35 overall because drafters are treating Hall as a locked-in bell-cow on an elite offense. In an industry 2-QB, full-PPR draft he finally grabbed Hall at 6.08—almost three full rounds after ADP—only because he had no running backs after starting QB/WR heavy and needed an RB2. Holloway noted every other analyst in the room let Hall slide, underscoring how little faith sharp drafters have in Hall’s first-year workload after ACL recovery or in the Jets’ scoring environment. He said he would rather take Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones at cost and will only consider Hall when the room forces a similar discount.

Richard Janvrin leaned under on Breece Hall’s 223.1-carry, 995.6-yard projection. Hall logged 209 carries for 876 yards and five scores in 2024, but Janvrin argues circumstances are less favorable now. New quarterback Justin Fields has averaged nine rushing attempts and six yards per carry in his career, siphoning designed runs and scrambles that previously went to Hall. Braelon Allen, who saw 92 carries for 334 yards and two touchdowns last year, looms as a bigger rotational piece after a developmental season. With Fields absorbing a chunk of red-zone work and the Jets intent on using Allen, Janvrin doubts Hall will pick up the 100-plus extra rushing yards baked into the projection and sees his receiving volume falling from last season’s 57 catches. Overall, he called the consensus forecast too optimistic for season-long fantasy drafters.

Colm Kelly admitted he rarely clicks Breece Hall because he prefers Kenneth Walker or the last Tier-3 wideouts that share Hall’s third-round draft slot. Kelly worries New York’s three-headed committee—Braelon Allen handling early downs and Isaiah Davis earmarked for passing situations—will prevent Hall from consolidating touches. Even though Hall still averaged 15.3 PPR points during last year’s "disappointing" season, Kelly thinks the current workload uncertainty caps his ceiling and chooses to fade him at cost.

Jakob Sanderson said Breece Hall is the quintessential high-risk, high-reward swing in Round 3. He expects the Jets to import Detroit-style running-back usage under new OC Tanner Engstrand, noting everyone on the staff comes from schemes that finished top-5 in expected fantasy points for backfields. Sanderson pointed to a top-10 run-blocking line, perimeter receivers Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard who grade out as plus run-blockers, and Justin Fields’ mobility creating explosive zone-read lanes that should push the team into the upper-4s YPC range. Fields also ranked top-2 in check-down rate last season, supporting a sizable RB target share behind Garrett Wilson. If Hall flashes his pre-injury 2022 efficiency he can rebound to true first-round value, making the third-round price a smash despite the risk Isaiah Davis siphons some third-down work.

Jakob Sanderson believes the market is about to hand drafters a gift on Breece Hall. Hall has hovered in the early-third as RB14 all offseason, but light preseason usage alongside Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis should push his ADP down a full round. Sanderson still views the Jets backfield as a "both" situation: Allen profiles as the between-the-tackles grinder, while Hall retains the explosive receiving role that helped him average 2.00 yards per route run after Week 10. New York quietly finished top half in backfield XFP despite dreadful quarterback play, and Sanderson argues the total pie is larger than people think. With Hall’s price set to drop and the fantasy community fixated on the Jets’ projected win total, he’s loading up on both Hall and Allen at the corrected ADPs, betting that the combination of volume and efficiency will pay off in Season-Long and Best Ball formats.

Brandon Anderson argued that New York’s re-tooled front five sets up a monster rushing season for Breece Hall. The Jets now start back-to-back first-round tackles—Ola Fashanu on the left and rookie Membu on the right—flanked by guard John Simpson, Alijah Vera-Tucker and second-year center Joe Tippmann. Anderson connected the hire of coordinator Tanner Engstrad, a Ben Johnson disciple, to a more creative run-first approach that fits Justin Fields’ scrambling tendencies. With healthier personnel and a scheme designed to accentuate zone runs and misdirection, Anderson expects Hall to recapture the 2023 explosiveness that produced 5.8 yards per touch before injury. He labeled Hall a top-five fantasy back and recommended bettors chase Jets rushing-yard overs early before the market adjusts.

Pat Kerrane warned that New York’s meticulous preseason drive allocation—Hall on early downs, “Davis” checking in for every 3rd-and-5+, and another back getting his own series—almost certainly mirrors their intended Week 1 rotation. He stressed that coaches only micro-manage preseason snaps when they want to rehearse the real thing, making this more alarming than Jacksonville’s Etienne/Bigsby split. If that plan holds Hall could lose most obvious passing-down work, capping both snap share and reception upside. Kerrane nudged Hall down in his ranks and advised best-ball drafters to temper expectations until the Jets show a different look.

Josh warned listeners he is "terrified" of drafting Breece Hall in Round 3 after seeing the Jets split work three ways. Hall’s five snaps against Carolina were matched by Isaiah Davis (third-down specialist) and Braelon Allen (early downs), suggesting a 45-45-10 split at best. Josh pushed Hall behind Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker, Omarion Hampton and—most notably—James Cook, arguing that even if Hall and Cook receive similar volume, Buffalo’s offense will produce far more red-zone trips than New York’s run-first, low-scoring attack that now features Justin Fields vulture runs. He also highlighted Aaron Glenn’s stated intention to feature a fullback and heavy 21-personnel sets, further limiting Hall’s passing-game snaps. Hall now slots as an early-to-mid Round-4 pick for Josh.

Hayden Winks said Breece Hall can no longer be treated as a third-round anchor back after New York showed a full three-man rotation in their first preseason action. On the 10 snaps Justin Fields took with the starters, Hall logged only five while Isaiah Davis handled third-and-long duties and Braelon Allen rotated on early downs. Winks noted the Jets project as a below-average offense, meaning Hall needs every snap he can get. Instead, a committee plus Justin Fields’ goal-line scrambling caps touchdown equity. The staff’s love of 21 personnel with fullback Andrew Beck further crowds opportunities, and Hall is not currently negotiating an extension, raising long-term uncertainty. Winks moved Hall to 40th overall—early Round 4 in Best Ball Mania and season-long ranks—grouping him with Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams and James Cook rather than the Round-3 tier.

Mattek reported Breece Hall played only half of the Jets’ snaps with Justin Fields under center while Braelon Allen handled early-down work and Isaiah Davis took third-downs. With the coaching staff seemingly committed to mixing in both backs, Mattek moved Hall "at least one tier" lower in rankings, warning drafters against assuming bell-cow volume in September.

Mark Ringo believes Breece Hall is overvalued at RB13. Jets coach Aaron Glenn has openly discussed a two-man backfield featuring rookie Braelon Allen on short-yardage and goal-line downs, reducing Hall’s touchdown equity. With Justin Fields—not Aaron Rodgers—likely under center, Ringo expects fewer check-downs and thus fewer receptions for Hall. Between the looming RBBC and a quarterback prone to scrambling instead of dumping off, Hall’s pricey ADP carries far more risk than reward.

Mattek dubbed Breece Hall “the poster boy” for upside running-back selections. Although Hall has never recorded a 1,000-yard season, Mattek loves his heavy receiving involvement and still-cheap rookie contract. He added that Hall’s blow-up hinges on new Jets quarterback Justin Fields checking down often because the roster lacks proven pass catchers. That pass-game volume, combined with Hall’s big-play profile, justifies drafting him aggressively in best-ball tournaments.

Although he once listed Breece Hall on a do-not-draft sheet, Freedman now finds him acceptable at RB14 (ADP 35) because the market has adjusted. He still worries dual-threat quarterback Justin Fields could siphon carries and check-downs, yet Hall’s receiving résumé is undeniable—76 targets last year (No. 3) and 95 the year before (No. 1). With 3,625 scrimmage yards in 40 career games and a new projection of 57 targets and 203.4 points (RB15), Freedman sees an elevated floor that justifies the price even if the Jets offense struggles.

Jagger may said Breece Hall is a "no-brainer" keeper because the market has over-corrected. Hall has tumbled far enough that May claims you can grab him with one of your final draft spots. He trusts what New York’s coaches ("listen to what these coaches are telling you") are signaling about Hall’s workload and thinks the only thing pushing him down is misplaced fear, not any real limitation. Given Hall’s established ceiling, May argues the risk-reward profile is overwhelmingly in your favor for keeper formats at this price.

Jason Moore called Breece Hall a "terrible pick" where he’s being drafted (early third round). Moore pointed to Hall’s own admission that the current Jets front office didn’t draft him and his cryptic "time will tell" tweet as signs the player expects a committee role. Beat-camp usage has reinforced that expectation, and Moore noted Hall is still coming off a major knee injury. He would take Kyren Williams or Chase Brown— both now going ahead of Hall—every time. Until the Jets show a true three-down commitment, Moore recommends passing on Hall in Season-Long and Best-Ball leagues.

Best Ball Guy raved that Breece Hall is "forever wheels up." Hall is only 23, flashes elite pass-catching chops—he called him "probably top three at the position"—and has been making highlight grabs throughout camp. The Jets imported the Lions’ offensive coordinator whose backs finished top-four in fantasy points two straight years, which BG expects to increase Hall’s receiving volume. Even if New York stalls near the goal line, Hall’s explosiveness allows him to house long runs and catches, giving him week-winning upside. BG is comfortable scooping him every time he slips into the early third round.

Asked about taking Breece Hall and Braelon Allen on the same roster, Best Ball Guy advised against it. He argued the Jets’ overall scoring volume is too thin for both backs to deliver tournament-winning seasons simultaneously. Hall provides massive spike-week potential—BBG imagined four separate 35-point outings featuring 5-catch, 100-yard, 2-TD receiving lines plus 12-for-60 on the ground—while Allen’s path is almost entirely tied to goal-line work (he projected eight 1-yard TD plunges in BBG’s best-case). Because their archetypes rarely peak together, BBG said drafters should pick one Jet RB, not both, when building best-ball teams.

Best Ball Guy selected Breece Hall as his lone early running back, saying Hall "still has a lot of upside" even though he’s been fading most Jets skill players due to quarterback concerns. He views Hall as an ideal single-anchor RB who provides breakaway ability and league-winning potential while allowing him to load up on wideouts for the next four rounds.

Josh ranks Hall 32nd – the last back in his current tier – and is "still drafting a ton." He reiterated Hall’s elite talent and reception projection but warned that rookie Braylon Allen crushed Hall in short-yard metrics last season and could take goal-line work, creating a Lions-style split on a team that might score only 17 points per game. Even so, Josh projects roughly 70 catches and sees no other Jet besides Garrett Wilson capable of commanding targets, keeping Hall firmly in the mix for early-third-round PPR value.

Winks slotted Breece Hall 31st overall because the coaching staff keeps calling Hall "the easy button" and has openly discussed funneling him receptions. Before last year’s ankle issue Hall was on pace for 71 catches and 1,600 total yards. The Jets revamped their line with top-10 pick Armon Membu plus multiple recent Day-1/2 selections, so volume should be there even if Justin Fields is, in Winks’ words, "a likely disaster." Braylon Allen may vulture short-yardage carries, but in full-PPR formats Winks expects Hall to flirt with 70 receptions and sees him as the clear final RB in the tier.

Jim Coventry advised buying Breece Hall at his current discount. Hall finished 2024 with 1,359 scrimmage yards and eight TDs—fine numbers but well short of the 1,800-yard, 12-TD range people drafted him for. Efficiency cratered to a career-low 4.2 YPC, ranking just 38th percentile in broken tackles and 49th in yards after contact. In an interview Hall revealed he played the entire season on an MCL sprain, explaining the dip. Coventry believes a healthy Hall ends any committee chatter in New York and resumes an alpha workload. He tagged Hall as an undervalued RB1 for 2025 drafts.

Although Hall once landed on Freedman’s do-not-draft list, he flipped when Hall slid to 4.08, noting 3,625 scrimmage yards in 40 career games. Freedman argued that ESPN drafters have over-corrected on Hall’s injury narrative, creating a clear value for a back who owns every-down upside on the Jets.

Michael Florio highlighted that you can now draft Breece Hall in the late-third/early-fourth (RB12 ADP) even though he ranked fifth in snap share, third in goal-line carry share, third in RB targets and eighth in explosive-run rate last season. New coordinator Tanner Engstrand comes from a Detroit scheme that has finished top-two in RB goal-line carries and touchdowns three straight years and consistently peppered backs in the passing game. With dual-threat quarterback Justin Fields stressing defenses, Florio sees Hall’s floor as a high-end RB2 and his ceiling much higher than current cost.

Michael Florio highlighted Breece Hall’s Round-3 ADP (RB12) as his cheapest entry point yet to an every-down weapon. Hall ranked fifth in snap rate, third in goal-line carry share, third in RB targets, and eighth in explosive-run rate last season. New coordinator Tanner Engstrand brings Detroit tendencies—top-two in RB goal-line carries and TDs each of the past three years and heavy RB target volume. Pair that with Justin Fields’ dual-threat presence and Florio pegs Hall’s floor at high-end RB2 with a ceiling far higher than his price.

Best Ball Guy thinks the market is sleeping on 23-year-old Breece Hall. Hall is already an elite receiver and consistent long-run threat yet has only played with statuesque passers Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. BBG believes the arrival of Justin Fields will open rushing lanes and raise Hall’s touchdown equity, making him a smash pick wherever he slips below the top tier of running backs.

Conor Allen said bettors should take Breece Hall under 900.5 rushing yards this season. The number is available anywhere from 875 to 950, and Allen would still play the under down to the low-850s. He expects new coordinator Aaron Glenn to mimic the Lions’ Gibbs–Montgomery split by giving newcomer Braylon Allen most of the between-the-tackles work while shifting Hall toward pass-game usage that does not help this prop. Justin Fields’ own rushing proclivity should siphon even more carries and dump-offs from Hall. Allen added that season-long unders historically cash about 60 % because injuries, offensive-line issues or benchings create multiple paths to victory, giving further edge to the under.

Hall remains a "dual-threat playmaker in his prime" and McFarland urges drafters to grab him in late Round 3 (ADP 35.6). Three-year averages of 16.7, 17.0 and 15.1 PPG came in dysfunctional offenses; underlying metrics stay elite (12% explosive run rate, 14% target share, two seasons over 1.75 YPRR). New OC Tanner Engstrand may toy with a committee, but Braelon Allen’s rookie tape (5% explosive rushes, 11% missed tackles) doesn’t scare McFarland. Improved line investment and Justin Fields’ rushing threat could spike Hall’s ground efficiency, while lack of a clear WR2 keeps passing-game volume intact. He only projects the Jets for the league’s 3rd-fewest TDs, yet Hall’s receiving chops insulate him from game-script pain.

Pushing back on Twitter chatter, Koh argued Breece Hall remains an elite fantasy back. In a disastrous Jets offense Hall still piled up 1,359 scrimmage yards, 8 TDs, and 57 receptions (4th-most among RBs) across 16 games, finishing as RB16 despite handling 67 % of the team’s carries. Koh labeled him 'one of the most fluid athletes in the NFL' and stamped a 9.5/10 job-security grade on him. The takeaway: continue valuing Hall as a top-tier RB rather than downgrading him because of last year’s vibes.

Rich Cooling likes the OVER on Breece Hall’s 5.5 rushing-touchdown line. Hall would have cleared the mark last season if Aaron Rodgers hadn’t monopolized red-zone passing, and Cooling believes Justin Fields’ mobility will create wider running lanes plus more red-zone rush attempts. Even in a committee, Hall’s big-play ability and an expected efficiency bump lead Cooling to project six or more rushing scores, making the over an attractive early offseason wager.

Tom Strachan warned drafters that Breece Hall’s upside is limited because the Jets intend to run a true committee. He expects Bray Lannan to handle a David Montgomery-style thumper role while rookie Isaiah Davis siphons touches as well. Hall is in a contract year, and Strachan even floated the possibility of a trade. With workload 'shared around' and goal-line chances divided, Hall becomes a 'difficult click' at his current second-round price in managed leagues.

Hayden Winks said the 1A/1B talk does not dent Breece Hall’s upside. Hall merely drops one slot in his ranks but stays in Hayden’s top tier because he expects Hall to dominate passing-down work while Allen handles lower-value between-the-20s carries. The Gibbs/Montgomery coaching tree, four premium O-line additions and a run-centric game plan all point to heavy volume, with receptions keeping Hall’s fantasy ceiling intact. Hayden is still drafting Hall aggressively in PPR and Best Ball formats.

Best Ball Guy floated the idea that Breece Hall could be the rare young work-horse who actually gets dealt before his second contract because, in Hall’s own words, he "was not drafted by this management and does not expect an extension." BBG listed the Texans, Cowboys, and Browns as the three most logical landing spots given their ambiguous depth charts and win-now aspirations. He noted that Hall is already a smash pick on the Jets thanks to his 5.8 career YPC and elite receiving chops, but a trade to a back-needy contender would goose his touch ceiling into the Christian McCaffrey/Bijan Robinson tier—"he instantly becomes the 1.05," BBG said. The takeaway: keep jamming Hall in best-ball drafts because you’re free-rolling a blockbuster value spike on top of an already solid projection.

Coventry called Breece Hall a “screaming value” if he slips to the late second or early third. Hall revealed he played through an MCL sprain all season, explaining the drop-off from his explosive rookie form. Coventry dismissed the Jets’ ‘timeshare talk,’ insisting a healthy Hall will reclaim a workhorse role and can finish among the NFL’s top backs.

Jim Coventry said drafters should pivot to Breece Hall if Jacobs is gone because Hall’s 2023 let-down is easily explained: he revealed he played through an MCL injury all year. Coventry reminded listeners that Hall’s rookie-year efficiency before the ACL tear was elite and that he looked explosive again in 2024 before the undisclosed knee issue cropped up. With the injury now behind him and no major backfield competition in New York, Coventry views Hall as a buy-back RB possessing league-winning upside at a depressed ADP.

Coventry encouraged managers to "buy back" on Breece Hall if Jacobs is gone. Hall revealed he played through a sprained MCL last season, explaining the dip from his rookie-year explosiveness. Because Hall was going as the RB1-2 in 2024 drafts before that injury, Coventry thinks a fully healthy version offers league-winning upside and should be taken ahead of backs like Chase Brown or Kyren Williams at the 2-3 turn.

Ryan Heath pushed Brees Hall into must-target territory at his late-third/early-fourth ADP. Hall has averaged 4.8 targets per game for his career; only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler have matched that passing-game volume, and Hall’s 1.79 yards per route run ranks second among all backs over that span. Heath believes preseason coach-speak about a three-man committee is noise, noting that a healthy Hall could easily reclaim a bell-cow role in an offense bolstered by first-round tackles Amarius Mims and Olu Fashanu plus a fully healthy interior line. Justin Fields’ mandate to avoid turnovers should funnel check-downs Hall’s way, and a thin receiver room further boosts his receiving ceiling. If Hall regains the burst film graders said he lost while playing hurt in 2024, Heath sees league-winning upside available a full round after the elite backs go off the board.

Nick Whalen said Breece Hall is still an RB1 even after last year’s ugly rushing tape. Hall posted one of the league’s worst success rates and failed to reach 1,000 yards on the ground, yet only Alvin Kamara and Devon Achane drew more running-back targets. Whalen expects an even heavier receiving load because new quarterback Justin Fields is “a check-down monster” who will force linebackers to spy him and leave Hall free underneath. With the Jets’ skill talent concentrated around Hall and Garrett Wilson, Whalen projects another top-3 target share at the position and sees a path to 80+ catches in full-PPR formats.

Ben Gretch doubled-down on his concerns about Breece Hall in full-PPR formats, saying the receptions simply are not there under Justin Fields. Hall caught 76 passes two seasons ago and 57 last year, but Gretch projects only "about 40" catches in 2024 and warns that a 20-reception floor is firmly in play because Fields turns roughly 20 % of dropbacks into sacks or scrambles and rarely hits the check-down on time. The Jets are openly hyping rookies Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis, further threatening Hall’s passing-down work, and the coaching staff keeps comparing Hall to a “Jahmyr Gibbs” type back even though Detroit’s runners see little passing volume. Gretch said Hall’s explosive rushing talent makes him more defensible in half- or non-PPR leagues where receptions matter less, but in PPR he still profiles as an early-second fade given the realistic downside scenarios.

Ben Gretch said Breece Hall’s early-second-round price tag is almost three rounds too rich once you account for the Jets’ environment. Justin Fields turns roughly one out of every five dropbacks into sacks or scrambles, Robert Saleh openly wants 17-13 "rock fights," and New York keeps hyping Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis as legitimate rotation backs. Gretch projects a capped workload and sees Hall finishing well below the 350-touch threshold needed to pay off his cost. Although Hall’s breakaway ability resembles Saquon Barkley’s, Gretch argued that spike-week talent cannot consistently overcome a muted play volume and committee risk, making Hall a fade at current ADP in both redraft and best-ball formats.

Tom Strachan advised taking the OVER on Breece Hall’s 5.5 rushing-TD prop. Hall has never topped five rushing scores, but Strachan pinned the blame squarely on Aaron Rodgers: the veteran QB ranked 7th in red-zone pass attempts last year while Hall ranked just 35th in red-zone carries and 34th in inside-the-five attempts (only eight all season). With Justin Fields projected to start — a quarterback Strachan calls more team-oriented than Rodgers — New York should lean on Hall near the goal line. The Jets have publicly reaffirmed Hall as their lead back and invested in an upgraded offensive line that grades at least "above average" in Strachan’s eyes. Those factors make six rushing TDs a very attainable baseline, so Strachan is confidently betting the over.

Matthew Freedman placed Breece Hall on his do-not-draft list even though the Jets back is going RB12. He warned Hall could surrender early-down snaps to rookie power back Braelon Allen and, more importantly, lose reception volume because new quarterback Justin Fields historically tucks and runs instead of checking the ball down. Freedman’s projection assigns Hall just 203.4 PPR points, a full round behind cheaper backs such as Alvin Kamara, making Hall a Round 3 land mine in his eyes.

If Josh Jacobs is gone, Jim Coventry wants drafters to pivot to Breece Hall at the 2/3 turn. Hall told reporters he gutted through 2024 with a sprained MCL, which Coventry says explains the dip from his rookie-year explosiveness. With the injury behind him, Coventry expects Hall to look like the “superstar” we saw before and right after the ACL tear, making him an ideal fallback RB2.

Josh Norris pushed back on the unbridled Hall enthusiasm, pointing to rookie Braylon Allen’s short-yardage dominance as a real threat to Hall’s high-value touches. In Allen’s tiny 2023 college sample the 240-pound back converted 78 % of carries needing three yards or fewer into first downs or touchdowns, compared to Hall’s 46 % success rate in the same down-and-distance last season. Norris noted OC Tanner Engstrand comes from the Lions tree that initially funneled goal-line work to David Montgomery over Jameer Gibbs, suggesting the Jets could follow a similar early-season script. If Allen inherits even half of the inside-the-five work, Hall’s path to 10-plus TDs—crucial for an RB1 outcome—gets murkier. Norris still likes Hall’s talent but warned that drafters paying a late-third-round price are assuming the touchdown equity stays intact; any meaningful Allen role could lock Hall into a lower-end RB1 or high-RB2 ceiling rather than the top-six finish Stewart projected.

Ron Stewart said Breece Hall is mis-priced at RB12 because every off-season variable that tanked his 2023 efficiency has flipped in his favor. Stewart expects Hall to function as the Jets’ No. 2 pass-catcher behind Garrett Wilson thanks to Justin Fields’ league-leading check-down rate, projecting a reception floor that offsets any workload cap in a two-back room. He raved about a rebuilt offensive line—rookie bookend Olu Fashanu, 6-6 RG Membu, second-year center Joe Tippmann, former first-rounder Alijah Vera-Tucker and FA guard John Simpson—that landed inside PFF’s pre-season top ten. Add a run-leaning identity Tim Boyle hinted at and Stewart sees Hall reclaiming the explosive form he flashed as a rookie while benefiting from the space Fields’ option looks create (citing Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley’s efficiency bump alongside dual-threat QBs). He forecast a ‘fringe top-six’ points-per-game finish—roughly 18-20 PPR per week—arguing that moving from RB12 to RB6 is a league-winning swing in both best-ball tournaments and home-league playoffs.