Chris Raybon placed Williams at QB13—one spot ahead of ADP—citing better pass-protection from the Joe Thuney/Drew Dalman upgrades and Johnson’s quarterback-friendly system as the main reasons he expects a sizeable efficiency jump. Raybon cautioned that Johnson could dial back designed runs, comparing the possible usage to Jared Goff’s stationary role in Detroit, so he is tempering projections slightly relative to Koerner. Still, the host believes fewer interior breakdowns will keep Williams from the "weird, sped-up" mechanics that led to so many self-inflicted sacks in 2024. Bottom line: Raybon is "cautiously optimistic" and comfortable clicking Williams at the back of the QB1 tier, banking on passing growth with enough scramble yardage to beat price.

Sean Koerner said Caleb Williams is his QB10 and called a finish inside the overall top-5 well within range. Koerner’s case hinges on three upgrades: 1) Ben Johnson taking over the scheme after coordinating Detroit’s top-10 passing attack; 2) a rebuilt interior line anchored by Joe Thuney and Drew Dalman that should slash last year’s league-worst sack totals; 3) better weapons— first-round TE Colston Loveland is already "turning heads," Luther Burden joins Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, giving Williams four legitimate targets. Koerner added that Williams quietly cleared 30 rushing yards in nine games, providing the dual-threat profile fantasy breakouts are built on. Because last season’s QB16 finish came amid a mid-season coaching change, Koerner views that as the floor and is happily drafting Williams at the current QB13-14 price tag.

Sean Koerner named Caleb Williams his favorite value climber, ranking him QB10 while he’s drafted around QB13-14. Koerner sees legitimate top-five upside under new head coach Ben Johnson—architect of Detroit’s prolific offense—behind an upgraded Bears line and with added weapons, including rookie tight end Colson Loveland. Even amid last year’s chaos Williams still finished QB16, which Koerner views as his floor; with Johnson’s scheme emphasizing play-action explosives and easy first-read throws, Williams could vault into elite fantasy territory at a mid-QB2 cost.

Josh warned drafters not to assume an immediate breakout for Caleb Williams. Ben Johnson’s scheme is brand-new and reportedly so complex that multiple national writers say it could take “years” to master; one described Williams as “drinking through a fire hose” at camp. Chicago is still shuffling its left-tackle spot and teaching an entirely new protection package, making it unrealistic to expect the quarterback to leap from “around the 25th-best QB to a top-10 guy” in Year 1. Josh thinks the Bears will be happy to be league-average offensively and is therefore below market on Williams at his current fantasy price.

Ryan Noonan said he already bet Caleb Williams to clear 4,000 passing yards in the season-long market. Noonan compared Jared Goff’s first season in Detroit under Anthony Lynn (3,200 yards, 6.6 Y/A, 19 TD, 8 INT) with the very next year when Ben Johnson took over (4,400 yards, 7.6 Y/A, 29 TD, 7 INT) to show the impact Johnson’s play-calling can have on both volume and efficiency. He argued the Bears are following the same blueprint—upgrading the offensive line, surrounding the quarterback with better weapons, and hiring Johnson—so a similar statistical jump is realistic. Noonan dismissed the “no Bears QB has ever hit 4K” narrative as irrelevant to a modern, aggressive Johnson offense and called the current 4,000-yard prop a mis-priced number he wants to attack.

Connor Allen forecasted a sluggish first month for Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense but expects noticeable improvement as the season progresses. Early camp reports described the unit as ‘a mess’ while Williams adjusts to playing under center and learning Ben Johnson’s scheme, yet the last several practices showed clear progress in two-minute drills. Allen highlighted Chicago’s upgraded offensive line, first-round tight end Colston Loveland already running with the starters, and a deep receiving corps led by Rome Odunze and DJ Moore as reasons the offense should ‘hum’ once Williams settles in. Fantasy managers should be patient early and target Williams for mid-season DFS or trade windows when public sentiment is still lukewarm.

Sam Monson said Caleb Williams is primed for a year-two breakout and should be drafted aggressively in fantasy formats. Monson pointed to the arrival of head coach Ben Johnson, who turned Jared Goff into a top-10 passer by layering shot plays and easy buttons into the offense. Johnson and GM Ryan Poles immediately upgraded the roster: veteran guard Joe Thuney joins a line Monson believes can leap from bottom-half to top-10, while Roma Duneze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland give Williams a deeper, faster receiving corps after Keenan Allen’s departure. Monson argued that better protection plus a more quarterback-friendly scheme will reduce Williams’ 19 turnover-worthy plays and league-high sack rate, unlocking the scramble-and-throw skillset that produced five big-time throws against Minnesota last season. He expects Chicago to clear its 8.5 win total and projects Williams to flirt with top-8 fantasy QB numbers thanks to improved efficiency and designed rollouts.

Pete Overzet said best-ball drafters who are heavy on Luther Burden should start prioritizing Caleb Williams a round or two ahead of ADP. Because Burden is selected later, drafters rarely circle back to complete the Williams–Burden stack (he has it on only 1.5 % of 200+ teams). By grabbing the quarterback first you can "star" Burden and dramatically improve portfolio diversification while still capturing a cheap, high-upside QB–WR rookie pairing for the Bears’ pass-heavy attack.

Shawn Siegele argued Caleb Williams should be targeted as a second-QB “window” pick because Chicago will throw far more than the market assumes and Williams’ rushing upside remains untapped. Siegele pointed out that the Bears’ new tempo-friendly scheme led by Shane Waldron ranked top-10 in neutral-situation pass rate with Geno Smith and now inherits DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze—arguably the league’s best three-wide set. He believes Williams will scramble less by necessity but add 400-plus rushing yards via designed red-zone boots and RPO keepers, giving him a realistic path to imitate 2023 Jaden Daniels’ weekly 30-point eruptions. With drafters taking Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott well ahead, Siegele views Williams as the high-ceiling arbitrage play in Rounds 10-11.

Sean Koerner urged grabbing Caleb Williams at his current QB12 best-ball ADP, saying the sophomore has every ingredient for a surge. Despite a ‘disappointing’ rookie campaign, Williams still ranked 14th in Best-Ball Points Added per game while leading the league in both sacks taken (68) and throw-aways (38) amid in-season firings of his head coach and offensive coordinator. Koerner expects a massive efficiency jump under new play-caller Ben Johnson, whose Lions offense consistently created first-read throws and kept Jared Goff clean. Chicago rebuilt the line with multiple additions and replaced Keenan Allen with two explosive rookies—tight end Colson Loveland and wideout Luther Burden—adding to a core that already features DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Koerner has Williams at QB10 in his ranks but thinks top-five is in play once you layer in his rushing upside and the ease of stacking him with inexpensive Bears pass catchers.

Rich Hribar advised passing on Caleb Williams in single-QB redraft formats because the rookie’s opening stretch is brutal. Chicago has the first bye of the season in Week 5 and faces Minnesota, Detroit and Dallas in three of the four playable weeks before that, with only Las Vegas offering a soft landing. Hribar stressed that drafters probably would not start Williams until at least Week 6, wasting a precious roster spot when streamable veterans are available. He also pointed out that Ben Johnson, two top-40 rookie pass-catchers and multiple offensive-line additions make the Bears a chemistry project that could take time to click. Until the schedule eases and the unit gels, Hribar has removed Williams from his one-QB draft board and prefers later quarterbacks with friendlier September matchups.

Polzin advised hammering the OVER on Caleb Williams’ 22.5 passing-touchdown prop at PrizePicks. Every other book he checked—Underdog, Bet365, Caesars, and DraftKings—lists the rookie at 23.5, giving bettors a full TD of cushion. With Chicago surrounding Williams with an above-average receiving corps and planning to let him learn on the job, Polzin expects at least 24–25 scores and called the 22.5 number a clear mis-price.

Best Ball Guy said he is intentionally capping his Caleb Williams exposure at "a nice, even 7–8 percent" because the market is still paying first-overall-pick tax on the rookie. Williams, in BBG’s words, "looked pretty bad at times last year" and has yet to prove he can translate his off-script college magic to the pro game. Although the Bears added coordinator Ben Johnson and a deep weapon group, BBG prefers similarly priced quarterbacks such as Drake Maye and Baker Mayfield—both of whom already flash spike-week ceilings at a cheaper ADP. Until Williams shows tangible camp progress or his cost drifts, BBG views him as a fragile bet that can be faded in the double-digit rounds to free up capital for sturdier QB2 options.

Pete Overzet said drafters who are already heavy on Luther Burden (he’s at 20% exposure in Pete’s own portfolio) need to start grabbing Caleb Williams more aggressively, even if it means clicking the quarterback a round or two before ADP. Because Williams comes off the board first, waiting often leaves you stack-less when Burden slips past your next pick. Overzet noted that only 1.5% of his total teams have the Williams–Burden connection, a rate well below the community average. He plans to "star" Williams immediately after selecting Burden’s competitors or simply reach a few slots to guarantee the Chicago rookie duo and capture correlated upside for Week 17 shoot-out potential.

McFarland ranks Caleb Williams QB9 overall—well above his Round-10 ADP (114). After a rocky rookie campaign (15.6 PPG), Williams gets a massive infrastructure overhaul: Ben Johnson takes over play-calling, the offensive line jumps into both Thorn’s and PFF’s top-10 after adding Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson, and the Bears drafted TE Colston Loveland plus WR Luther Burden to join DJ Moore. Williams already provided 28.8 rushing YPG on 81 attempts but scored zero rushing TDs; historical comps suggest ~3.6 TD regression. Projection: 14.9 floor, 18.2 median, 23.4 ceiling. McFarland believes Williams is one of few passers with realistic 4,500-yard/500-rush seasons in his range and is a must-target ceiling play.

McFarland slotted Caleb Williams into Tier 4 at QB9 overall and called him one of the few passers capable of 4,500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in the same season. The rookie’s Round 10 ADP bakes in complete bust risk, but McFarland views the cost as a perfect gamble because the payoff is high-end QB1 production without the early-round opportunity cost.

Hayden Winks called Caleb Williams a prime second-half league-winner despite an ugly first pro season. Williams flashed elite traits—QB6 in EPA on designed runs, second-best missed-tackle rate as a scrambler and several out-of-structure lasers that confirm first-overall talent. The problems were hesitation and sack avoidance: Williams posted the league’s second-worst pressure-to-sack ratio and too often fired sideline throw-aways instead of ripping open windows. Winks expects Ben Johnson’s play-action-heavy scheme to wipe out those robotic tendencies by simplifying reads and building half-field concepts. With DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen creating separation, Winks projected 3,900 passing yards, 25 TDs and 500 rushing yards if the rookie merely cuts his sack rate to league average. He recommended scooping Williams as a QB2 with top-eight upside in best-ball tournaments and grabbing his Offensive Rookie of the Year odds before preseason buzz shortens the number.

Nick Holz predicted a huge sophomore leap for Caleb Williams with offensive wizard Ben Johnson now in Chicago. As a rookie Williams endured three coordinators and admitted no one even taught him NFL film study, yet from Week 11 on he still ranked as a top-10 fantasy QB—throwing 11 TDs to 1 INT over the final eight games. Johnson’s Lions offenses consistently finished top 5 in yards and scoring, and he now inherits a weapons group of DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet plus rookies Colston Loveland (TE) and Luther Burden. GM Ryan Poles shored up interior protection by signing Joe Thuney and other vets, addressing the constant up-the-middle pressure that plagued Williams early. Holz framed the coaching upgrade, fortified line and expanded skill-talent as ingredients for a 2025 breakout that could vault Williams into the fantasy QB1 conversation.

Jim Coventry said Caleb Williams is being drafted as the QB10-12 but expects him to leap into the QB1 tier. Coventry pointed to four upgrades the fantasy market is ignoring: (1) Chicago rebuilt the offensive line by signing Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson and drafting tackle Ozzie Tripillo; (2) new OC Ben Johnson, who resurrected Jared Goff’s career, now schemes for Williams; (3) a deep supporting cast—DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden—gives him legitimate weapons at every level; (4) Williams already rushed for 489 yards as a rookie while ‘running for his life,’ providing a built-in fantasy floor that should remain even if scrambles decline. With protection, coaching, and talent finally aligned, Coventry views Williams as a “draft-day cheat code” who will easily beat his current price.

Sam Monson said the Bears’ offseason should have fantasy managers aggressively targeting Caleb Williams because Chicago finally paired its rookie quarterback with elite infrastructure. Monson highlighted three ingredients: (1) Ben Johnson—arguably the most coveted play-caller in football—was lured away from Detroit, giving Williams the same creative mind that juiced Jared Goff’s efficiency the last two seasons; (2) Chicago invested heavily up front by signing Joe Thuney and center Drew Dalman, creating a markedly better pocket than the one Justin Fields dealt with; and (3) the front office doubled down on weapons, spending first- and second-round picks on dynamic tight end Colston Loveland and explosive wideout Luther Burden. Add in a returning DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, and Monson believes Williams will have one of the league’s deepest supporting casts from Day 1. The holistic upgrade in coaching and protection makes Williams a high-ceiling QB2 in Season-Long leagues and a priority Best-Ball target with Offensive Rookie of the Year upside.

Mark Drumheller said Caleb Williams is the clear Year-2 quarterback to target because he offers both floor and ceiling at a still-palatable ADP (QB12 on Underdog). Drumheller leaned on the 'Ben Johnson bump'—pointing to Jared Goff’s 4,629-yard, 37-TD resurgence under Johnson—to argue that a dual-threat version of Goff could smash. Williams already ran for 489 yards as a rookie, and Drumheller expects designed red-zone runs to inflate his weekly fantasy floor. He noted that three signal callers with higher ADPs—Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield—carry bigger question marks (e.g., Tampa’s O-line likely opening without Tristan Wirfs). Drumheller concluded that Williams is the safest wager to beat cost among the five sophomore QBs drawing serious draft capital.

While debating Caleb Williams versus Drake Maye, Best Ball Guy said he always clicks Caleb because “you can stack Caleb a lot better.” Williams comes with three affordable, high-upside pass-catchers—Rome Odunze, Keon Coleman, and Brock Bowers—who rarely go in the same range, allowing drafters to build a unique 3-man stack without reaching. Best Ball Guy emphasized that correlation wins playoff rounds and called Caleb’s trio the most tournament-friendly in the Rookies & Sophomores lobby. His recommendation: if you’re drafting near the top and want maximum ceiling with manageable opportunity cost, start Caleb and aggressively grab two or three of his weapons.

Johnny Venezia urged drafters to grab Caleb Williams at his 118 ADP, arguing the market is sleeping on a potential Year-2 explosion. Williams already logged 3,541 yards, 20 TDs, and just six picks as a rookie. Chicago replaced its staff with offensive guru Ben Johnson, architect of Detroit’s prolific attack, and stocked Williams with playmakers—DeAndre Swift, DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze ("Rome Daddy"), first-rounder Luther Burden, and TE Cole Kmet. Venezia expects Johnson’s scheme and the talent surplus to funnel everything through Williams, giving him a realistic path to a top-10 fantasy finish at a double-digit-round cost.

Davis Mattek said Caleb Williams should not still be going at pick 105 on DraftKings best-ball drafts. By his count that is roughly ten slots of pure discount versus where an explosive dual-threat rookie quarterback with 4,500-yard/30-TD upside normally settles. Mattek likes the Bears specifically because the stack is still affordable—Colston Loveland and Luther Burden are routinely available well after ADP—which lets drafters keep quarterback optionality deep into the double-digit rounds. In rooms where passers are flying off the board "willy-nilly," the ability to assemble a cheap, fully correlated Chicago stack gives Williams even more leverage relative to pocket-passer names going in the same tier such as Jared Goff or Geno Smith.

Nick Whalen believes the market is too optimistic on Caleb Williams, who is going in the QB9-QB10 range (picks 90-100). While Ben Johnson’s arrival in Chicago adds creativity, Williams still faces typical rookie hurdles. Whalen prefers steadier options such as Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, or even Justin Fields— all available later. Williams is acceptable as part of a two-QB committee, but Whalen does not want to leave drafts with the rookie as his lone starter.

The What urged drafters not to get swept up in the narrative that Ben Johnson will instantly fix Chicago. He is "not a Caleb Williams guy," saying the rookie holds the ball too long, misses easy throws, and is less accurate than advertised. Layering that skepticism onto a franchise he views as chronically mis-managed, he prefers pivoting to other mid-round quarterback targets—citing Jordan Love as a safer bet—and is fading early Bears stacks (Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze) until their price reflects the uncertainty.

Andy Holloway cooled expectations for Caleb Williams, likening the rookie’s outlook to Trevor Lawrence’s up-and-down start rather than an Andrew Luck-style rocket ship. After re-watching every 2024 throw, Holloway flagged 68 sacks, a league-leading 41 throwaways, and a 44th-of-47 catchable-target rate as red flags. Even with an upgraded line (PFF jump from 24th to 4th) and Ben Johnson’s arrival, Holloway believes Williams’ inconsistent accuracy from clean pockets makes it unlikely he lives up to his QB14 ADP in redraft or best ball. He sees a capable long-term starter but not an immediate fantasy star and would rather spend the pick elsewhere.

PPRTyler said the small ADP dip on Caleb Williams is a gift and that he is now clicking Williams over Bo Nix every time Jayden Daniels is off the board. He reminded viewers the only realistic way to topple Daniels in Week 17 is with a fully correlated quarterback stack and argued Caleb offers the cleanest pairing options plus the highest raw ceiling in the pool. Because Williams slid a couple spots compared with yesterday’s rooms, Tyler views him as both a price break and the most explosive pivot, making him a straight-up priority over Nix even though market consensus still has them flipped.

Drafting Jayden Daniels early does not mean you have to chase correlation at quarterback, according to Tyler Knaeble. When his second pick rolled around, Knaeble debated Cameron Ward—who offers two draftable rookie receivers for stacking—but ultimately slammed Caleb Williams because "I think we just need the QB points." He argued that raw ceiling matters more than correlation in the condensed 2-QB, four-round format: Daniels already delivers a rushing-led spike-week floor, and Caleb is the only passer left whose weekly projection can genuinely match or exceed that. Knaeble noted that sacrificing the Ward stack is worth it because the gap between Caleb and the tier that follows (Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, Ward) is larger than the bonus you get from a tertiary Week-17 pairing. His rule of thumb: once you own the skeleton-key Daniels, lock in the highest-ceiling QB2 available—even unstacked—to maximize finals equity.

Tyler Knaeble called Caleb Williams 'a cheat code' in Underdog’s Rookie & Sophomore contest because the rookie Bear can be paired with three different teammates who are all in the same four-round player pool—Rome Odunze, tight end Colston Loveland, and wideout Luther Burden. Knaeble stressed that correlation still drives finals win equity even in the condensed format, so quarterbacks who offer multiple stacking outs hold a distinct leverage edge over options like J.J. McCarthy. He advised scooping Williams any time he falls outside the top two picks, then prioritizing at least one of those Bears pass-catchers in the mid-rounds to lock in unique, high-ceiling Week-17 combos.

Jim Coventry said Caleb Williams is an easy buy at his QB12 price tag because every external variable around him has moved in the right direction. New play-caller Ben Johnson just coaxed a career renaissance out of Jared Goff and inherits an offensive line the Bears completely rebuilt on the interior. Williams already showed a fantasy-friendly floor with 489 rushing yards last year, so any bump in pass efficiency turns him into a weekly difference-maker. Coventry expects the improved protection and Johnson’s aggressive scheme to unlock the rookie’s arm talent and give drafters a high-end QB1 outcome at a mid-QB2 cost.

Rich Hribar said fantasy managers in single-QB formats should plan to keep Caleb Williams on the bench for most of September. Chicago opens with the Vikings, Lions and Cowboys—three defenses that either blitz at a top-five rate (Minnesota) or boast elite pass-rush personnel (Aidan Hutchinson’s Lions, Micah Parsons’ Cowboys)—before finally getting a soft matchup against the Raiders in Week 4 and then heading into a Week 5 bye. Hribar questioned whether drafters will feel confident starting Williams in more than one of those first four games. Add in a brand-new Ben Johnson system and typical rookie growing pains, and Hribar views Williams as a low-end QB2 who belongs in the “fine, not good” tier of offenses rather than an immediate every-week starter.

Hayden Winks told viewers he is perfectly happy scooping Caleb Williams in Round 10 because the Bears have flipped every variable that tanked the rookie’s 2023 stat line. Winks conceded the lows—no positive efficiency metrics, shaky down-field accuracy—but blamed chaotic pockets that forced Williams to fling ‘prayer’ balls while sprinting toward the sideline. Even in that mess, Williams was the fantasy QB17 overall and QB8 in rushing yards per game from Week 5 on, showing a viable floor. Chicago then signed All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, brought in Jonah Jackson, upgraded at center with Drew Dalman, drafted a 6-foot-8 swing tackle for depth and hired play-caller Ben Johnson. They also added seam-busting TE Colson Loveland and explosive first-round WR Luther Burton while counting on year-two leaps from Rome Odunze and Williams himself. Winks thinks cleaner pockets will showcase the quarterback’s true on-platform accuracy and let his 4.5-speed legs rack up 70–80 designed rushes. The end result is a realistic top-eight fantasy ceiling that is nowhere near baked into a double-digit-round ADP, making Williams a smash upside pick in both Season-Long leagues and Best Ball tournaments.

Nick Whalen said he would bet the over on Caleb Williams’ 3,550.5-yard passing prop at –115. Williams threw for 3,541 yards as a rookie despite being sacked 68 times and losing almost 500 yards behind a coaching staff Whalen called “dysfunctional.” Whalen expects an across-the-board upgrade: Ben Johnson replaces Matt Eberflus, the offensive line has been reinforced, and the pass-catcher group still includes DJ Moore plus second-year Roma Odunze, rookie TE Colston Loveland and second-round WR Luther Burden. Whalen noted that every QB who started at least 16 games last season beat this yardage total except Williams, who missed by only nine yards, so as long as the second-year starter plays 16–17 games Whalen believes he clears the number without needing to be the Bears’ first 4,000-yard passer.

Williams is being drafted as QB10, but Koerner/Raybon rank him QB7. Ward cited Chicago’s hiring of former Lions OC Ben Johnson and the use of their first two draft picks on pass catchers as reasons to expect a sophomore leap. Williams already finished rookie year around QB25 in PPG; schematic tempo and weapon upgrades set the stage for weekly top-six finishes.

Joe Pisapia backed the Bears to clear 8.5 wins, arguing that Caleb Williams’ second-year leap gives Chicago the only ascending quarterback situation in a division where two clubs are likely to regress and another is breaking in a rookie signal-caller. Pisapia views Williams as the division’s highest-ceiling passer and noted that OC Ben Johnson’s scheme has historically produced fast starts for young quarterbacks. With the Lions and Packers both projected to take a step back, Pisapia sees an 9-10 win path for Chicago and is comfortable laying standard juice on the over.

JSU said Caleb Williams is a late-round quarterback you absolutely want in DraftKings Best Ball rooms this summer because Chicago finally fixed the two things that submarined his rookie efficiency: coaching and protection. Ben Johnson replaces Matt Eberflus with the same play-action, quick-hitting scheme that fueled monster fantasy seasons for Jared Goff and a Detroit run game that punched in 28 rushing scores last year. The Bears also invested heavily in the offensive line after Williams faced pressure on 38 % of rookie dropbacks, sixth-worst in the league. With Rome Odunze stretching defenses vertically and DJ Moore owning the intermediate area, JSU projects Williams for both explosive passing plays and designed-run usage that can produce 3–4 thirty-point spike weeks. He admitted the exact target pecking order between Moore, Odunze, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland remains unsettled, but argued the Ben Johnson system plus improved trench play gives Williams a clear path to a top-10 fantasy finish while still going well after the elite QB tier.

Erik Beimfohr explained why he is happy to stop at two quarterbacks when those passers are Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence. Both are going outside the top-10 at the position even though each inherits a play-caller upgrade that could turbo-charge efficiency: Ben Johnson brings his +8% pass-rate-over-expectation history to Chicago, while Liam Cohen returns to Jacksonville fresh off a Kentucky offense that averaged 35 points per game. Williams posted a 90th-percentile collegiate EPA per play and Lawrence ranked eighth in NFL QBR over his final six healthy weeks, giving each a realistic 30-point weekly ceiling. Beimfohr argued the market is underpricing a 2024 Houston-style leap for both teams; if either offense hits, their ADPs will be two rounds higher next summer. Rather than wasting an 18th-round pick on a Daniel Jones insurance policy, he’d rather fire another late-season RB/WR lottery ticket and trust this discounted duo to carry the room.

Sam Monson cautioned that Caleb Williams’ out-of-structure playing style—while capable of Mahomes-level highlights—rarely yields week-to-week consistency. He pointed out that Williams showed every possible behavioral extreme as a rookie: pathological check-downs, YOLO deep shots, turnover-worthy throws, and long stretches with no interceptions, all in the same season. Historically, quarterbacks who live outside the pocket struggle to sustain efficiency unless they become pocket-first passers, and Monson doubts that transformation will happen right away. Until Ben Johnson gets Williams comfortable operating inside the "paint-by-numbers" framework, Monson expects continued roller-coaster production that could sink fantasy lineups and make it dangerous to hammer Chicago passing overs or early MVP futures.

Steve Palazzolo said Caleb Williams could make a fantasy leap in 2025 because Chicago finally addressed every pain point around him. The Bears replaced Shane Waldron with Ben Johnson, rebuilt the offensive line, and spent premium picks on Luther Burden and Colson Loveland to deepen the pass-catcher room. Palazzolo noted that last year Williams was sacked an alarming 68 times—28 % of his pressured dropbacks, second-worst in the league behind Will Levis. That pressure-to-sack tendency is often sticky year-to-year, so the key metric to watch this summer is whether Johnson’s timing-based scheme and better protection can cut that number in half. If the sack rate comes down, Palazzolo believes the existing high-end flashes (nine big-time throws vs Detroit and Minnesota late in the year) will translate into consistent fantasy production, making Williams a high-ceiling QB2 you can draft after the elite tier in season-long or best-ball formats.

Steve Palazzolo predicted a substantial Year-2 leap for Caleb Williams, saying he "wouldn’t be surprised" if the Bears signal-caller posts a monster statistical season that vaults him into the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks and dark-horse MVP discussions. Palazzolo cited Chicago’s off-season haul—hiring play-caller Ben Johnson and adding multiple explosive pass-catchers—as a perfect environment for the former No. 1 pick to follow the recent trend of second-year breakouts (think Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud). He noted Williams already owns the arm talent to attack the deep third, plus off-script creativity that should pad fantasy points through rushing and scramble drills. Bettors, he said, should consider early MVP tickets at long odds and attack any preseason passing-yardage props before they adjust upward. For season-long leagues, Palazzolo recommended drafting Williams as a mid-range QB1 with top-five upside, while stacking him with Bears receivers in best-ball formats.

JSU said Caleb Williams is his favorite late-round quarterback target in 2025 Best Ball. Williams’ current ADP sits well outside the top-120 picks, letting drafters load up elsewhere before completing a Bears stack. JSU likes that you can pair the rookie with Rome Odunze or D.J. Moore several rounds later and still grab Cole Kmet near the end of drafts, creating a full passing-game stack for minimal capital. He noted that with veteran Keenan Allen off the roster, Williams should funnel high-value targets to the young perimeter duo, giving him immediate spike-week potential without spending an early pick at the position.

Davis Mattek said he is more bullish on Caleb Williams than current ADP reflects, calling the quarterback’s rough 2023 USC campaign a "Jaden Daniels at Arizona State"-style blip that should be disregarded. Mattek blamed last year’s struggles on Shane Waldron and Matt Eberflus’ dysfunctional setup and believes new OC Ben Johnson will maximize Williams’ arm talent and improvisational chops. Even if Chicago eases him under center early, Mattek expects Johnson to lean on heavy play-action and DJ Moore-Keenan Allen yards-after-catch designs that align with Williams’ collegiate strengths. With rushing upside (over 400 yards in each of his final two NCAA seasons) and an elite pass-catcher trio, Mattek is comfortable selecting Williams ahead of veteran pocket passers in the same tier to chase league-winning upside in Weeks 15-17.

Rich Cooling warned that Caleb Williams is priced at his fantasy ceiling in startups. Cooling does not see a path for Williams to join the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or Jayden Daniels tier because the rookie lacks a top-end rushing profile. He cited Williams’ 28.2% pressure-to-sack rate as a fundamental pocket-awareness flaw that Ben Johnson will not fix overnight, and argued that if the Bears’ upgraded line and weaponry don’t lead to an immediate QB1 season, Williams’ market value could crash. Cooling would rather take Dak Prescott two rounds later for similar production security or swing on higher-ceiling bets like Kyler Murray or Jordan Love. Until Williams slips into the fourth round, Cooling is passing.

Ryan McDowell said Caleb Williams is being overdrafted at 19th overall (QB9) in current Superflex dynasty startups. McDowell prefers the rookie in the mid-third round, noting that Williams is coming off the board ahead of established producers like Kyler Murray and several elite young wide receivers such as Brian Thomas, Nico Collins, and Drake London. He argued the depth at quarterback makes it unnecessary to pay a second-round price unless you believe Williams possesses legitimate top-three overall upside, which McDowell does not. If managers open a draft with a quarterback in round one, he recommends pivoting to wide receiver in round two and waiting for cheaper QB2 options later. In short, Williams’ current ADP bakes in near-ceiling expectations without the resume to justify it.

Sean Koerner said Ben Johnson’s arrival in Chicago should turbo-charge Caleb Williams’ second-year leap. Johnson’s Detroit offenses led the league with roughly 3,500 first-read passing yards, while the Bears were second-to-last at just over 2,500. Koerner expects Johnson to script quicker, more defined first reads that let Williams get the ball out instead of absorbing sacks (PFF charged the rookie with 17 self-inflicted sacks). Add an upgraded line plus weapons like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and rookie tight end Colston Loveland, and Koerner projects a sizeable efficiency spike that justifies Williams’ rising QB7-QB8 best-ball ADP.

Steve Palazzolo said Caleb Williams is primed for a big Year-2 jump because Chicago finally paired him with Ben Johnson, the head-coaching prize of the last three hiring cycles. Palazzolo noted Johnson’s track record of building an elite, top-two offensive line in Detroit and how the Bears immediately mirrored that philosophy by trading for Joe Thuney (still an elite pass-blocking guard), adding Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman, and creating a dominant interior trio that should give Williams a clean pocket. Chicago also fields a legitimately tough pass-catching corps—DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, rookie Luther Burden and a two-tight-end rotation of Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland—which Palazzolo believes will let Johnson coax the “play free and easy” version of Williams that USC fans remember instead of last season’s mistake-averse, sack-heavy version. The combination of premium protection, diverse personnel groupings and an aggressive play-caller makes Williams a buy in early best-ball drafts and a sneaky mid-tier QB1 target in redraft formats.

Billy Jones called Caleb Williams’ four-pick slide ‘crazy’ and a gift of the new 18-round format. With most best-ball drafters settling on two-QB builds, mid-round passers are being ignored, pushing Williams below where a rookie with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and Brock Bowers additions should go. Jones argued the dip is purely structural—Bears pass-catchers have also inched down—rather than talent-based, and predicted that sharper rooms would eventually correct Williams back up once ADP stabilizes. He encouraged drafters to scoop the discounted stack now, noting that Chicago’s schedule features three dome games in Weeks 15-17 and that Williams brings rushing equity lacking in neighboring pocket passers.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound cannot believe Caleb Williams is still hovering around pick 95 after Chicago surrounded him with Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and TE Brock Bowers. Pat said Williams was already his most-owned player during early BBM drafts and now looks even better because the market never reacted to the post-draft talent infusion. He has the rookie pegged for 4,100 passing yards, 28 TDs, and 550 rushing yards—numbers that would have ranked eighth among fantasy QBs last season. Pat trusts OC Shane Waldron’s history of leveraging play-action and vertical routes (Seattle ranked top-10 in deep-ball rate three straight years) and has already bet the Bears to win the NFC North at +370. His advice: keep scooping Williams inside the 9th round and build two-QB rosters around him, because drafters will regret letting a dual-threat prospect with this supporting cast stay in the mid-90s.

Davis Mattek made Caleb Williams his Round-8 priority, noting that this is the sweet spot where wide-receiver quality falls off and quarterbacks win drafts. Chicago just removed every excuse: OC Ben Johnson is in the building, the interior line was rebuilt via trades for Joe Thuney and Drew Dalman plus another veteran guard signing, and the pass-catcher group is loaded with Cole Loveland, Luther Burden, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore. Mattek expects a league-average pass rate—massive growth from the Fields era—and believes Williams’ dual-threat skill set can crack a top-five fantasy finish even if that projection is off by a little. If Williams still needs excuses after this season, Mattek says "it’s probably over," but he sees a 25-points-per-game ceiling in Week 17 shootouts and loves landing that upside without spending a top-75 pick.