Paruk called Over 53.5 receiving yards for Deebo Samuel a strong look. Washington funnels him bubble screens, slants, and jet motion touches that let him pile up yards after the catch. Against a Packers defense that concedes underneath volume to limit deep shots, Paruk expects Samuel’s manufactured opportunities and tackle-breaking ability to push him into the mid-60s.

Chris Farley grabbed Deebo Samuel anytime TD at +190, arguing Washington will have to manufacture offense through its versatile wideout because Green Bay’s front just stone-walled Detroit for 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts. With Austin Ekeler and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt facing a brick wall, Farley expects Scott Turner to scheme Samuel on jet motions and red-zone gadget plays. Samuel commanded a team-high nine targets and caught seven passes in Week 1, making him Washington’s most reliable scoring threat against a run-stuffing defense.

JutPicks backed Deebo Samuel at +190 to find the paint on Thursday night. He pointed out that Green Bay’s front just held Detroit to 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts, making a traditional ground attack a tough sell for Washington. With Austin Ekeler banged up and only rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt behind him, JutPicks expects Eric Bieniemy to dial up Samuel’s trademark jet-sweep and screen packages, especially inside the 20. The wideout commanded 9 targets and pulled in 7 receptions in Week 1, a clear sign the offense already funnels touches his way. Add in the game’s lofty 48.5 total and the implied need for creative short-yardage solutions, and Samuel’s hybrid usage profile becomes JutPicks’ favorite anytime TD angle.

Jake Ciely said Deebo Samuel should command roughly 100 targets in Washington while still getting designed carries, projecting about 20 combined touches in many games. Ciely argued that Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was forced to throw to sub-par pass-catchers last season, so Samuel instantly becomes the most reliable option in the offense. Even if Samuel falls short of the 130-target elite tier, the mix of triple-digit looks and backfield usage is enough for him to finish comfortably in weekly wide-receiver-three range for season-long fantasy line-ups.

Larry Hartstein recommended the under on Deebo Samuel’s season-long receiving yards (line not specified). Samuel posted career lows in yards per game, YAC and yards per route run in 2024 and turns 30 this season. Hartstein worries that Samuel’s bruising style and lengthy injury history are catching up. With Terry McLaurin expected to headline the attack and camp standout Jalen Lane earning snaps, Samuel’s target share could fall further. Hartstein views the health risk plus diminished efficiency as a clear signal to fade.

Jason Moore said he is mostly fading Deebo Samuel but concedes the current eighth-round price already absorbs much of the risk. Moore reminded listeners that after Brandon Aiyuk’s season-ending injury Samuel still logged 79 % of snaps over the final eight games yet mustered only 3 catches for 33 yards per week, evidence Kyle Shanahan had moved on from featuring him. Samuel has completed only one full NFL season and absorbs a punishing workload, so durability remains a red flag. Even so, Moore noted Terry McLaurin’s lingering camp absence could leave Washington short on proven targets, creating a path for Samuel to pop. His bottom line: do not reach, but if Samuel is sitting in round eight the upside is finally worth the dice roll.

Andy Holloway said Deebo Samuel is being drafted far too late (WR38, late-7th round) and should be treated as a priority value pick. Holloway pointed out that every Washington beat reporter just named Samuel the most impressive player in camp and that Monday’s preseason jet-sweep showed he still has the burst and tackle-breaking ability that once made him a top-two fantasy receiver. Statistically, Samuel ranked second in the entire league in yards after the catch in 2024 and tied Garrett Wilson for the most evaded tackles among wideouts. Holloway stressed the marriage with Cliff Kingsbury is perfect: Kingsbury’s offenses have ranked 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in screen-pass rate the last three seasons, and Jayden Daniels threw behind the line of scrimmage on 20% of attempts (5th-highest in the NFL). Because Terry McLaurin is still sidelined and was never a high-volume option, Holloway expects Samuel to soak up scheme-manufactured touches and lead the Commanders in targets. The upside, in Holloway’s view, is a return to top-15 WR production at a retirement-party price tag.

Marcas Grant dismissed hype about Deebo Samuel’s growing connection with Jayden Daniels, reminding readers that Samuel’s 2021 eruption remains an outlier. Outside of that year he has only one other season with 1,000+ scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns. Seven-on-seven highlights do little to change the profile of a player who often excels in real football but frustrates fantasy managers. Grant urged drafters not to push Samuel up boards simply because Terry McLaurin is sidelined and the two are sharing extra reps.

Andrew Erickson cautioned managers not to chase Deebo Samuel if his ADP climbs on the back of Terry McLaurin’s contract holdout. Samuel averaged just 8.5 fantasy points and finished outside the top-40 WRs in 2024 despite Brandon Aiyuk’s absence, clearing 22 receiving yards only once in his final seven games. He exceeded weekly projections in three of fifteen contests (20%) while battling injuries and pneumonia. Washington acquired the 29-year-old for a mere fifth-round pick and reworked his deal to one season, signaling limited long-term commitment. Erickson fears an aging hybrid wideout who lives on screens and carries, has a chronic injury history and is now tied to a potentially low-volume Commanders offense is more likely to bust than pay off.

Connor Allen revealed he already bet Deebo Samuel Under 725.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel) but urged listeners to wait until Terry McLaurin’s contract standoff is resolved before following. Allen expects Washington to use Samuel almost exclusively on low-aDOT touches while McLaurin stretches the field; if McLaurin signs, Deebo’s role caps his yardage ceiling even if the catch count is healthy. Conditioning is another concern—reports say Samuel showed up to camp out of shape for the second straight year, echoing last season’s career-low 11.3 YPC. With Jayden Daniels likely living in the short passing game, Allen considers anything in the mid-700s a clear under once McLaurin is back in uniform.

Sam Monson called the trade for Deebo Samuel ‘all upside.’ Even if Samuel only repeats last year’s limited slot-only usage—66 % of 2024 snaps inside and zero backfield carries—he is still a clear upgrade over Washington’s previous WR2 options. Monson reminded listeners that the 2021-22 version of Samuel averaged 2.7 yards per route run with 9.5 YAC per reception; if Jaden Daniels unlocks even a portion of that move-all-over-the-formation role, this offense could jump from good to special. Sam is happy scooping Samuel at his current WR28 ADP in best-ball and season-long drafts, betting on a dual-path outcome where the market is already pricing in his floor.

Peter Overzet admitted he “didn’t pound the table” for Deebo earlier in the round but still believes Samuel is one of the board’s biggest misprices. Overzet argued most drafters are anchored to last year’s down season—when Samuel played through illness and missed three games—yet are ignoring his clean bill of health and a fresh start in Cliff Kingsbury’s YAC-friendly system. Kingsbury has been chasing a Deebo-type weapon for five years and now has him as the unquestioned WR1 opposite rookie Jayden Daniels. Overzet added that Samuel has been posting a steady stream of workout videos and ‘revenge body’ clips, a pattern the market historically rewards once preseason highlights hit Twitter. With drafters happily pushing Terry McLaurin up on holdout rumors but leaving Deebo flat at pick 70-plus, Overzet is scooping Samuel wherever he falls into the sixth and calling him a “free bet on a proven 20-point ceiling.”

Pat Kerrane advised passing on Deebo Samuel at his current Round-4 cost now that the gadget star has been shipped from Kyle Shanahan’s scheme to Kliff Kingsbury’s more scatter-shot offense. Kerrane pointed out Samuel’s efficiency cratered last season—just 1.60 yards per route run outside of a few cherry-picked hot streaks—and his first-read share was only 21.8 percent, far lower than true alpha receivers. With Washington expecting Terry McLaurin to keep the vertical role, Kerrane views Samuel as "half a running back" who will soak up manufactured touches but rarely command high-value down-field targets. If Samuel’s 2023 production felt disappointing while attached to Shanahan, Kerrane argues it is dangerous to assume any bounce-back when the play-caller downgrade and target competition remain obvious. He is letting others click Deebo in the 40s and will only consider him if the ADP drifts into the sixth round.

Peter Overzet clicked Deebo Samuel moments after nabbing Godwin, saying he is "fading Twitter" hysteria about one unflattering photo that made Samuel look heavy. Overzet noted 49ers beat writers have been consistently positive on Deebo’s conditioning and usage, and Kyle Shanahan continues to rave about getting him more back-field touches. With Brock Purdy healthy and San Francisco projected top-10 in implied points most weeks, Overzet views Deebo as a ceiling piece who is still available two full rounds after where he went last summer.

Ian Hartitz advised fading Deebo Samuel outside the top-40 receivers in normal redraft leagues. Hartitz argued Washington is unlikely to give Samuel anything close to the gadget-back usage Kyle Shanahan built around him in San Francisco, stripping away the rushing volume that once buoyed his fantasy ceiling. Samuel’s efficiency already collapsed in 2024—he ranked WR25 in points per game before a bout with pneumonia and fell outside the top-40 afterward—while tracking near the bottom of the league in success rate versus man coverage. Hartitz called the 28-year-old an age-ing, YAC-dependent archetype whose per-touch pop has cratered, noting that Commanders coach Kliff Kingsbury historically funnels quick-hitting screens to younger, more explosive options. With Terry McLaurin entrenched as the alpha and rookie Luke McCaffrey stealing underneath looks, Hartitz sees Samuel settling around 60-65 catches, sub-750 yards, and minimal carry work—production that won’t punish you if you completely pass on him at current ADP.

Andy Holloway warned listeners not to touch Deebo Samuel in the eighth round. He said the once-elite YAC weapon looked "painful to watch" last year, posting four single-digit fantasy outings of 4.0 points or fewer after Week 9. Holloway noted Washington’s passing volume was already fifth-lowest in 2023 and is unlikely to jump enough to support a third receiving option behind Terry McLaurin and the running backs. With the 49ers already willing to move on from him, Holloway fears Deebo has lost the burst that made him special and would only consider him if he slides into the double-digit rounds where opportunity cost disappears.

Sean Koerner said he is slotting Deebo Samuel as a low-end WR3/Flex for now but will adjust aggressively based on August practice reports. Koerner is baking in roughly 2–2.5 designed carries a game—matching Washington’s tendency to spread backfield touches—and noted he could bump that projection to three if camp chatter confirms the staff plans to copy San Francisco’s “wide-back” role. The real swing factor, according to Koerner, is conditioning: in seasons where Samuel shows up ‘deboed-out’ he flashes elite burst and tackle-breaking and becomes unstoppable after the catch, but when he reports heavy (as he appeared at points last summer) he struggles to separate, looks a step slow with the ball in his hands, and finishes closer to a WR4. Because Samuel’s game is built on YAC rather than route nuance, Koerner will be glued to early-August photos and beat-writer speed notes before pushing him up or down his board.

Josh Norris backed Deebo Samuel as the superior Round-6 pick, calling Washington a perfect landing spot for this version of Deebo. Cliff Kingsbury’s offense asked Jayden Daniels to throw at or behind the line of scrimmage on 26% of attempts (7th-highest in the league) and previously propped up YAC-dependent players like 33-year-old Zach Ertz (TE12 in points per game) and waiver guys Olamide Zaccheaus, Noah Brown and Dyami Brown for multiple top-25 WR weeks. Samuel forced 25 missed tackles on just 93 touches last season and remains an elite tackle-breaker even if the down-field juice has waned. The Commanders are projected to score a full touchdown more per game than the Browns, giving Samuel significantly better touchdown equity than fellow Round-6 target Jerry Jeudy. With minimal target competition beyond Terry McLaurin and a play-caller who will manufacture touches, Norris sees a high-variance WR2 profile that can still deliver smash weeks in both Season-Long and Best Ball leagues.

Steve Palazzolo said he would "trade a fifth-round pick for Deebo Samuel every day of the week," comparing the move to Baltimore grabbing Anquan Boldin for a mid-rounder and getting productive years in return. Palazzolo argued that last season’s dip in form is being overstated: Samuel is still in his mid-20s, not approaching the age cliff, and will slide in as the clear No. 2 option behind Terry McLaurin. The Commanders’ willingness to give up only a Day-3 pick signals they see him as an immediate contributor while they build around rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels. For season-long fantasy he framed Samuel as an ideal buy-low who could easily beat his current ADP if he regains even 80 % of his previous efficiency in a new offense that now boasts better line play after the Laremy Tunsel trade.

Wyatt Bertolone urged drafters to sell Deebo Samuel at his WR38, 66.8 overall ADP. Samuel managed only 10.2 PPR points per game in 2024 and plummeted to 55th in yards per route run, 46th in yards per target, and 51st in yards per team pass attempt. San Francisco’s inconsistent, diminishing usage culminated in shipping him to Washington for a mere fifth-round pick—evidence the 49ers were ready to move on. Bertolone sees the physical toll of Samuel’s hybrid role catching up and doubts the veteran can bounce back enough to justify even a discounted sixth-round tag, labeling him one of his strongest fades.

Andy Holloway said he is “mostly out” on Deebo Samuel even at the late-seventh-round price tag. Holloway argued Samuel clearly “lost a step last year,” pointing to the veteran’s noticeable drop in explosive plays and yards after catch. The bigger concern, in his view, is the 2025 context: Samuel is now changing teams at age 30, moving from Kyle Shanahan’s highly schemed touches to a Washington offense that already funnels first reads to rookie Rome Odunze and tight end Brock Bowers. Holloway added that Samuel’s rushing usage—the cheat-code that drove his 2021 breakout—has fallen in each of the past three seasons, leaving fantasy managers to rely on traditional wide-receiver volume that he no longer commands. While the cost is modest, Holloway believes the opportunity cost of drafting a declining, role-questionable receiver outweighs the nostalgic upside and would rather swing on younger breakout bets in this draft range.

Davis Mattek labeled Deebo Samuel an ideal mid-round Eliminator target because his fantasy production is likely to be heavily front-weighted. Mattek argued that even if Brandon Aiyuk’s contract stand-off drags into September, Kyle Shanahan will manufacture early-season touches for Deebo—jet sweeps, RPO slants, and red-zone screens—that can pop for 28-to-30 points in any given week. Those spike scores matter more than season-long consistency in a head-to-head, single-elimination format where one blow-up outing can advance you. Mattek also noted that the 49ers draw two dome games (at DET, at NO) before Week 10 and face only one top-10 pass defense in that span, making Deebo’s early-season path even softer. He is fine swallowing the late-year injury risk because Eliminator payouts start in Week 4, not Week 17.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound warned that Deebo Samuel’s current late-fourth/early-fifth-round best-ball price assumes he will once again log 25-plus designed rushing attempts. Pat thinks that is optimistic. He noted Kyle Shanahan dialed up only 23 carries for Deebo last year despite multiple Christian McCaffrey injury scares, and said beat writers have hinted the staff wants to preserve the wideout by trimming that gadget volume to “15, maybe even fewer than 20” totes. Because nearly 30 percent of Samuel’s fantasy points since 2021 have come via the ground game, Pat believes even a modest rushing pull-back destroys his weekly ceiling and leaves drafters paying WR2 prices for a volatile WR3. Add in Deebo’s chronic soft-tissue issues—he has missed eight games over the past two seasons—and Pat is fading him unless the ADP slides at least a full round.