Gilles Gallant warned that Derrick Henry is a trap when his anytime-TD line is in minus territory. Henry found the end zone in 13 of 17 games last season, yet a one-unit wager on every game returned only +2.8 units—116th among all NFL players and just seventh on the Ravens. Gallant highlighted a brutal four-game drought (Weeks 12-16) where prices closed as short as –245, –215 and –295, numbers that torched parlays and single-leg ROI alike. With league-wide TD rates falling while sportsbooks keep inflating favorite pricing, Gallant advised passing on Henry unless the market flips to plus money and instead targeting longer shots who routinely close in the +200 to +400 range.

Pat Kerrane said he is intentionally near-zero on Derrick Henry at his current first-round cost in Best Ball drafts. Henry is now 31, showed clear efficiency slippage in 2024, and Baltimore appears set on working a fully healthy Keaton Mitchell in for 6–8 touches a game to keep the veteran fresh. Kerrane argued that drafting Henry inside the top-12 forces managers to pass on elite wideouts like Puka Nacua, AJ Brown, or Brock Bowers—players he views as possessing equal ceiling with far less age-related downside. Yes, a 20-plus-TD season is in the range of outcomes, but at this price that upside is already baked in while the cliff scenario is not. Kerrane would have taken 6–8 % exposure last summer when Henry was a late-third pick, but at today’s sticker price he is comfortable fading almost entirely and reallocating capital to premium receivers.

Pat Kerrane said he has almost black-listed Derrick Henry at his new first-round DraftKings ADP, calling it a textbook age-cliff trap. Henry was routinely available in the late-third or even fourth round last summer, so drafters are now paying two full rounds of inflation for a 31-year-old back coming off 353 touches and joining a Ravens offense that already plans to work in Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill. Kerrane admitted Henry could pop a 25-TD season, but argued the opportunity cost is brutal: you pass on elite ceilings from AJ Brown, Puka Nacua or Brock Bowers for a running back who probably needs 20-plus scores to justify the price in half-PPR best-ball scoring. With earlier fades (Saquon last year) still fresh, he is reallocating that early-round capital to high-end wideouts and calling <2 % Henry exposure a feature, not a bug, in his 2025 tournament portfolio.

Sam Monson dismissed offensive-line hand-wringing and kept Derrick Henry firmly in the RB1 conversation. He pointed to 2024—the veteran’s "best statistical season"—as proof that Baltimore’s backfield "axis" of Henry plus Lamar Jackson buys the line the grace it needs. Defenses must rush conservatively to contain Jackson while Henry sheds arm tackles, leading to late-game explosion runs mirroring his Tennessee heyday. Even if second-year RT Roger Rosengarden stagnates and the guards are a revolving door of Daniel Faalele, Andrew Voorhees or Ben Cleveland, Monson expects the math to stay heavily in Henry’s favor. Fantasy managers and DFS players, he argued, should continue treating Henry as a high-volume, touchdown-rich option tailor-made for run-heavy scripts when Baltimore plays from ahead.

Shawn Siegele cautioned that Derrick Henry’s Baltimore landing spot is already baked into his ADP, leaving little profit potential. Henry managed only 13.9 expected fantasy points per game last year and still offers virtually no PPR boost, so every projection assumes he continues ripping off 40- to 60-yard touchdowns at age 30. Siegele contrasted that with Jonathan Taylor’s 16.9 EP and receiving upside, arguing that Henry must keep producing highlight-reel runs just to hold serve, whereas Taylor has a workload buffer. Given Henry’s reliance on big plays and the likelihood that Lamar Jackson siphons goal-line carries, Siegele believes Henry is being drafted at his ceiling and prefers other options in the same range.

Whalen refuses to time the decline of Derrick Henry, ranking him atop Tier 2. Henry logged 16 rushing touchdowns last year and Whalen believes he could surpass that if Lamar Jackson’s passing efficiency cools. Age and minimal passing-game work remain knocks, but Whalen argues Henry’s freakish durability separates him from normal 30-year-old backs and that Baltimore’s red-zone design will again funnel carries to him.

PPRTyler said he likes opening Underdog Eliminator drafts with Derrick Henry followed by De'Von Achane because the combo is both rare and structurally sound. Henry’s current ADP is 9 while Achane’s is 11, so grabbing them at the 1.12/2.01 turn should give the roster a unique construction against a field that usually starts WR-heavy in that pocket. Tyler added that many of the other running backs he targets share a Week-8 bye, but neither Henry (Week 14) nor Achane (Week 10) do, which keeps his roster from getting overloaded on a single bye week. He believes the double-RB start is especially valuable in the Eliminator format where advancing out of the early rounds often hinges on raw scoring rather than stacking wide receivers first.

Davis Mattek said he intentionally wants to be heavier than the typical DraftKings best-ball crowd on Derrick Henry because the market is still discounting Henry’s week-winning ceiling. Henry’s current ADP sits in the mid-second round (16-17 overall) on DK—often side-by-side with PPR darlings like Nico Collins—yet Mattek argued Henry’s trademark 25-touch upside and multi-TD potential have not disappeared simply because the scoring is full PPR. He added that many sharp drafters are now actively avoiding early-down backs, creating a leverage spot to grab Henry at a depression relative to historic pricing. Mattek said being underweight on Henry actually “scares” him, given the back’s proven 30-point spike-week profile and Baltimore’s willingness to lean on the run near the goal line.

Shawn Siegele warned that Derrick Henry’s expected points are "very, very low" relative to his current draft slot. Siegele pointed out that Baltimore has historically spread carries and lets Lamar Jackson siphon goal-line work, which leaves Henry without the bell-cow workload drafters are paying for. Because Henry now needs long touchdowns to offset his thin volume projection, Siegele is fading him at his mid-round-two ADP in both best-ball and season-long formats unless he slides a full tier.

Best Ball Guy said the turn combo of Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs is a sharp play in Sprint drafts because the two backs face each other in Week 17. He argued almost no one is pairing them at current ADPs, so the mini-stack gives rosters a differentiated path to a late-season spike. Both runners are still projected bell-cows on offenses that want to feed the run inside the five, and if their game turns into a slug-fest with multiple rushing touchdowns, Henry-Jacobs teams could leapfrog chalkier builds in the cumulative Week 15-17 scoring format.

Josh Norris slotted Derrick Henry 15th overall and argued the veteran remains a fantasy cheat code because Baltimore gives him an unprecedented strangle-hold on the money zone. Henry handled 94.7 % of Ravens carries inside the five (next closest back was 82.6 %), converting nine of his 13 rushing TDs from that area. He also ranked third league-wide in share of team carries inside the ten. Norris believes that double-digit-touchdown streak now stretches to eight consecutive seasons as long as Lamar Jackson stays upright and the offensive line holds. The only real downside is Henry’s near-zero receiving role; if Baltimore unexpectedly plays from behind he loses some weekly ceiling. Norris isn’t worried—he has the Ravens as his preseason Super Bowl pick—and views Henry’s combination of elite red-zone usage, top-five scoring environment and proven durability as a rock-solid RB1 at his current mid-second price in both best ball and season-long drafts.

Hayden Winks snagged Derrick Henry at 14th overall and is unfazed by age-related hand-wringing. Henry just posted a career-best 6.1 yards per touch and finished as the RB2 in half-PPR despite sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson. Baltimore fed him 94.7 % of the team’s inside-five carries—the highest share in the league and 12 points above the next closest back—which produced nine of his 13 rushing TDs. With the Ravens and Bills tied for the highest projected point total in 2025, Winks is banking on an eighth straight double-digit-TD season. In 2024 Henry ranked third in points-over-replacement per game, and Winks saw no slippage on film or in offseason workout clips. Even if touchdown regression hits, the Ravens’ red-zone philosophy funnels short-yardage work directly to The King, making him a safe RB1 with week-winning upside.

Koh reminded listeners that Derrick Henry absorbed 386 touches in 2024, his third time crossing the 370-touch threshold. Each of the previous two seasons that hit that benchmark saw sharp production declines the following year, and Henry enters 2025 at 31 years old. Koh projected a realistic stat line of roughly 1,100 rushing yards and 8–10 TDs—about half of last year’s output—making Henry a risky pick at any premium ADP.

Mike Wright called Derrick Henry one of the most undervalued backs in early drafts, noting drafters "kick him down" despite Baltimore re-upping his contract. Henry handled 81% of his carries while the Ravens were tied or leading, a game-script advantage Wright expects to repeat for a Super Bowl-caliber roster. Even without 40-plus receptions, Wright projects "a million touchdowns" behind Baltimore’s unchanged top-10 run-blocking line. He’s comfortable selecting Henry ahead of less certain pass-catching backs and views him as a discounted RB1 who can still crack the overall RB1 finish on sheer volume and goal-line dominance.

Chris Liss framed Derrick Henry as the safest way to open Round 2. Liss reminded listeners that Henry is entering his age-31 season yet showed zero decline last year, prompting Baltimore to hand him a three-year extension. The Ravens’ Lamar-led offense provides continual red-zone trips, and Liss expects another "1500-yard, 15-TD" campaign if Henry stays healthy. He conceded the veteran is unlikely to top 20 receptions, but argued the yardage/TD cushion still gives Henry a top-12 RB floor with realistic 1800-yard upside. Because Henry regularly slides to picks 11-14, Liss prefers him over boom-or-bust options like Devon Achane, calling the selection a "damn high-floor" anchor for season-long builds.

Andy Holloway cautioned against letting Derrick Henry slide in full-PPR drafts. While Henry rarely catches passes, Holloway reminded listeners that fantasy points also come from rushing yards and touchdowns; Henry remains a threat for 2,000 yards and 20 scores in Baltimore’s run-heavy attack, numbers that would more than offset any reception deficit. He believes managers overemphasize catches and forget that Henry’s raw rushing production has repeatedly placed him in the RB1 conversation regardless of format. Holloway concluded that if Henry tumbles into the late second round, drafters are gaining a massive value versus his realistic scoring projection.

Sam Monson warned against writing Derrick Henry off for age-related decline. He said Henry’s 2023 dip (3.9 YPC overall, 4.2 yards after contact) came behind "the worst offensive line in the NFL." Monson projected that moving to Baltimore—where Lamar Jackson freezes linebackers and the blocking unit grades far higher—could spike Henry’s per-carry average to roughly 5.9, matching his efficiency in earlier prime seasons. Henry still posted elite yards-after-contact totals last year, proving the power is intact; he simply lacked creases. Fantasy takeaway: treat Henry as a high-end RB1 again because context, not talent, drove last season’s slide.

Rich Cooling advised managers to hold Derrick Henry rather than dumping him for the going rate of a mid-to-late second-round rookie pick. Cooling pointed out that a second has only a 10-15% chance of producing multiple top-24 seasons, whereas Henry is still the clear lead back in Baltimore and a strong favorite to deliver top-24 RB production in 2025. Because contending dynasty teams are better off banking Henry’s likely weekly RB1/RB2 output than converting him into a low-probability rookie lottery ticket, Cooling warned that selling now would actually shorten the championship window for win-now rosters built around aging stars.

Rich Cooling advised managers to hold Derrick Henry rather than dumping him for the going rate of a mid-to-late second-round rookie pick. Cooling pointed out that a second has only a 10-15% chance of producing multiple top-24 seasons, whereas Henry is still the clear lead back in Baltimore and a strong favorite to deliver top-24 RB production in 2025. Because contending dynasty teams are better off banking Henry’s likely weekly RB1/RB2 output than converting him into a low-probability rookie lottery ticket, Cooling warned that selling now would actually shorten the championship window for win-now rosters built around aging stars.

Ryan McDowell urged dynasty managers who are chasing a 2024 title to pivot from James Cook to Derrick Henry. He pointed out that Henry is going one slot after Cook in current startup ADP, yet brings a far sturdier production profile. McDowell walked listeners through Cook’s razor-thin margin for error—his 7.7% touchdown rate was almost double his 3.8% career norm and heavily inflated his 16.5 PPR points per game. Regressing Cook to his own average drops him to 13.5 PPR points, a tumble from RB11 to RB21. Given that Cook also lacks a new contract and still competes with Josh Allen at the goal line, McDowell prefers paying the same draft capital for Henry’s bankable short-yardage work and year-over-year volume. His advice: trade for Henry or select him over Cook whenever the choice presents itself.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound doubled down on Derrick Henry as a premium spike-week bet but clarified how to deploy him across Underdog formats. He conceded Henry is ‘very game-script dependent’—Baltimore pulls him on clear passing downs, which produced a six-point dud in Week 15 last year—and that lack of receiving work can crater advance rates in the Puppy. However, Pat noted Henry’s usage inside the 10-yard line remains elite (top-five in red-zone rush share since 2021) and the Ravens leaned on him for 20-plus touches in every neutral- or positive-script game down the stretch. Those traits make Henry a top-eight pick in the Weekly Winners lobby, where managers chase single-week ceilings rather than 14-week medians. Pat’s strategy is to accept Henry’s floor in large best-ball tournaments when he slides to the mid-second, but to prioritize him aggressively in one-week payout formats where a two-touchdown eruption can outright win the slate.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told viewers there is no rational way to fade Derrick Henry at his current second-round ADP. Yes, the 30-year-old back is approaching the traditional running-back cliff, but Pat reminded listeners that age-based fades failed spectacularly last season when Henry shredded his 10.5 rushing-TD prop and posted three 24-plus-point outings down the stretch. Baltimore just handed Henry the backfield after giving him 340 touches in Tennessee, and Pat thinks playing next to Lamar Jackson will only juice efficiency because linebackers must account for Jackson’s keepers on every zone read. He called Henry’s 1,900-yard ceiling “completely in play,” labeling the click a ‘bro, big smash’ that he wants to reach 8-10 % exposure on despite popular mileage worries.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafters should still keep roughly 5-6% Derrick Henry in their best-ball portfolio even though his ADP has slid to the 16-17 range in some rooms. He acknowledged Henry is now a part-time back, but emphasized that Baltimore’s run-first tendencies and frequent positive game scripts will mask the snap share concerns. Pat expects the Ravens to win "an easy 13 games," giving Henry plenty of fourth-quarter closer opportunities and touchdown equity. The modest exposure acts as a ‘safety blanket’ in case Henry’s role pops while avoiding over-investment if the timeshare caps his ceiling.

Andy Holloway said dynasty managers should keep Derrick Henry and even buy if the market is still nervous. Holloway pointed to Henry’s brand-new two-year contract that averages "more than 15-million a year" with 25-million fully guaranteed, noting that most running-back extensions are voidable after one season while this one is not. Henry just finished as the overall RB2 after cranking out 1,921 yards on another 300-carry workload, and Holloway reminded listeners that Henry is the only back in modern fantasy history to post back-to-back seasons over 1,500 rushing yards. Baltimore’s run-centric scheme and top-five offensive line give him the same carry funnel he enjoyed in Tennessee. Age and mileage are scary on paper, but Holloway argued Henry is "a one-of-one" outlier who has already broken every historical model. With two guaranteed seasons as the undisputed lead runner in a high-scoring offense, Henry profiles as a plug-and-play RB1 for contenders instead of a roster clogger you need to dump.

Kyle Long said Derrick Henry will deliver "another great year" in Baltimore even though he just turned 31, calling him "an anomaly" who breaks the usual running-back aging curve. Long pointed to Henry’s 2023 production—1,921 rushing yards (second in the league) and a league-best 16 touchdowns—as proof that defenders still struggle to tackle him, especially when defenses must also account for Lamar Jackson’s keepers. He expects offensive coordinator Todd Monken to add more wrinkles that will make the Henry/Jackson backfield "even more potent," and he framed the Ravens’ two-year, $30 million extension as evidence they plan to continue leaning on the run. Long’s bottom line: keep viewing Henry as a top-tier season-long and DFS play despite the mileage.

Pete Overzet said he is keeping his Derrick Henry exposure "pretty low" because the market is asking drafters to take a 30-year-old, two-down back at the 1-2 turn—right next to elite wide receivers, Brock Bowers and even Christian McCaffrey. Last summer Henry smashed when he slipped to the 3-4 turn, but Overzet noted this year’s price eliminates that margin for error and forces you to pass on premium receivers at the point of the draft where structural wide-receiver starts are strongest. He contrasted Henry with Saquon Barkley—who is younger and has a pass-catching profile—and said he prefers both Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey in the same neighborhood. In short, Henry’s age, lack of receiving work, and opportunity cost make him an easy underweight for Best Ball Mania portfolios.

Davis Mattek said he is actively scooping Derrick Henry in Underdog’s Eliminator contest even though he’s lighter on the veteran in traditional Best Ball Mania builds. The single-elimination, head-to-head format rewards weekly survival over full-season durability, and Mattek believes Henry’s 20-plus-carry, multi-touchdown upside is a perfect fit for that environment. "I don’t care if he falls off in November—if he gives me three monster weeks early, he’s done his job," Mattek explained. With Baltimore expected to lean on Henry at the goal line, Mattek projects several 25-point outings in the opening third of the schedule, exactly the spike weeks that flip close 127-to-126 projections into easy wins. He is therefore willing to click Henry in Round 2 of Eliminator drafts while still fading him at similar price tags in contests that require production through Week 17.

Buck called Derrick Henry “probably the worst pick in the first two rounds” on Underdog. Henry turns 31 this season, played under 60 % of Tennessee’s offensive snaps last year, and has never been a receiving threat (career-high 33 catches back in 2020). Buck doubts that volume rebounds after Henry’s move to Baltimore, noting the Ravens rotated Gus Edwards and Justice Hill on passing downs and like to keep their backs fresh for December. Without targets to pad weekly floors and with age-related decline looming, Buck advised fading Henry at his late-first/early-second ADP in Best Ball Mania drafts, preferring younger, more versatile backs or elite wideouts in that range.

Pat Kerrane explained why he is passing on Derrick Henry when the big back comes off the board in the late-first/early-second round. Henry is 31, earns almost zero receiving volume, and needs another historically efficient rushing season to pay off a pick that shares the pocket with elite wide receivers and the consensus TE1. Kerrane acknowledged Henry set a career-best rushing-efficiency mark last year but argued that betting on back-to-back outlier seasons from an aging, two-down runner is a losing proposition. If Henry smashes again, Kerrane is comfortable being underweight because opportunity cost is simply too high relative to the floor offered by premium WRs available in the same range.

Nez Badge Bros called Derrick Henry “the best Eliminator pick on the board” after locking him in at 2.03. Henry is set to handle Baltimore’s early-down and goal-line work, giving drafters bankable weekly touches that keep them alive in the one-on-one elimination format. Nez admitted age is a concern but noted Henry’s workload has yet to crater and the Ravens’ run-heavy tendencies should prop up his floor. Front-loading that kind of volume, Nez argued, affords the flexibility to chase higher-variance wide receivers in the middle rounds without sweating early exits.

Beimfohr said he is largely avoiding Derrick Henry on DraftKings because full-point PPR scoring magnifies Henry’s limited receiving role. With Lamar Jackson likely to vulture red-zone carries and the Ravens projecting as a committee in passing situations, Henry needs extreme rushing efficiency to justify his 1-2 turn price tag. Beimfohr prefers backs who can catch four-plus passes a game in DK’s scoring system and will be underweight Henry unless his ADP slides.

Jason Moore called Derrick Henry the "easy layup" pick in early drafts, sliding him one spot above consensus because Baltimore’s Super Bowl odds (tied for second behind Philadelphia) insulate Henry from the game‑script volatility that has historically tanked his fantasy output. Henry has averaged 22 half‑PPR points in wins versus 12.8 in losses throughout his career, yet the Ravens project for double‑digit victories. Moore highlighted Henry’s 347 opportunities, league‑leading seven ‘first touchdown’ games, and 325 carries from 2024 as proof the veteran still commands king‑size volume. While Moore concedes Henry’s limited receiving role caps his overall RB1 odds, he sees virtually no path outside the top‑5 if the Ravens meet win projections, recommending Henry as a safe Round‑1 cornerstone in season‑long and best‑ball formats.