Rich Cooling labeled DK Metcalf a screaming fade at WR23 after the Seahawk’s shock trade to Pittsburgh. Cooling noted Aaron Rodgers locks onto three concepts—slant/flat, slot fade, and back-shoulder comebacks—none of which play to Metcalf’s strength as a linear, down-the-field, outside-the-numbers weapon. He added that preseason chemistry videos mean little when Rodgers is already showing erosion: 23 interceptions over his last two seasons after posting just 22 in the previous five combined. With Rodgers expected to run a pass-first offense that stalls in the red zone (top-7 in attempts inside the 20 but league-bottom in efficiency with the Jets), Cooling believes Metcalf will struggle to command consistent volume and is wildly overpriced on what he calls a "bad, ceiling-less offense."

Sam Monson warned that DK Metcalf’s fantasy ceiling could crater if Pittsburgh follows through on trading George Pickens. Monson noted Metcalf has "always had a running mate"—Tyler Lockett early, then Jaxon Smith-Njigba—freeing him to stick to posts, slants and go routes. Without Pickens, Metcalf becomes the unquestioned WR1 but also a one-dimensional focal point for defenses in an offense that may already skew run-heavy under Arthur Smith. Add a questionable offensive line and a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers who will likely check out of those runs he dislikes, and Monson sees a target-volume squeeze with lower efficiency. He advised treating Metcalf as a volatile WR3 rather than the back-end WR1 his name value commands in drafts.

Andrew Fillipponi would bet the under on DK Metcalf’s 925.5-yard prop at FanDuel. His reasoning: • With George Pickens traded, Pittsburgh lacks a viable WR2, meaning defenses can roll constant double coverage toward Metcalf. • The shaky left-tackle situation forces Rodgers to get the ball out quickly, limiting deep shots that traditionally fuel Metcalf’s yardage totals. • Calvin Austin profiles as a slot-only option, and Roman Wilson didn’t play last year, so nobody commands enough respect to keep safeties honest. • Arthur Smith’s history suggests a heavier tight-end and run-centric attack, further capping wide-receiver volume. Given those factors, Fillipponi expects Metcalf to fall short of 925.5 yards despite name-value buzz around the Rodgers-Metcalf pairing.

Ben Gretch urged drafters to fade DK Metcalf at his late-third ADP because Pittsburgh’s passing environment figures to be anemic. Arthur Smith has never finished a season with a positive pass rate over expected, and the Steelers doubled down on that identity by adding a day-two grinder to pair with Jaylen Warren. Gretch expects Smith to keep two and even three tight ends on the field—he cited Atlanta’s 2023 usage, where the TE3 topped 30 targets—which further dilutes perimeter volume. Aaron Rodgers compounds the issue by working slowly at the line of scrimmage; his penchant for play-clock manipulation dragged Green Bay to bottom-five pace in 2022 and already led to multiple delay-of-game flags last season. Gretch’s projection lands Metcalf at roughly 120 targets—50 more than any teammate but nowhere near the 145-plus looks that typically fuel top-12 receiver seasons. Because most of those targets will be lower-percentage vertical routes, Gretch believes Metcalf cannot match the reception totals of cheaper wideouts like Chris Olave or Jerry Jeudy. Without quarter-one scoring upside, Metcalf is an easy fade in both Season-Long and Best-Ball formats.

JSU loves DK Metcalf in 2025 best-ball drafts, arguing the move to Pittsburgh sets him up for a Davante-Adams-style target onslaught from Aaron Rodgers. He noted Metcalf has "no competition for the number one" role—Calvin Austin is a field-stretcher and the rest of the depth chart lacks proven producers—so Rodgers may simply lock onto the 6'4", 235-pound wideout the same way he force-fed Adams late in Green Bay. If that happens, Metcalf’s already elite red-zone profile gets paired with true WR1 volume, creating week-winning spike weeks at his current price.

Peter Overzet said he happily clicked DK Metcalf because, in his words, Metcalf can push 150 targets while still being drafted as a fantasy WR4/WR5 in current best-ball rooms. Overzet argued that paying that cheap price for bona-fide alpha volume unlocks week-winning upside without sacrificing early-round capital at running back or quarterback. He jabbed at more projection-driven drafters—“Big ETR is too scared of upside”—claiming they focus on bankable Week-1 roles and overlook a ceiling season from Metcalf if Seattle tilts pass heavy. In short, Overzet views Metcalf’s combination of target share potential and depressed ADP as one of the easiest positive-EV clicks on the board.

Pat Kerrane urged best-ball drafters to cool it on DK Metcalf at his current 4/5-turn ADP. Kerrane said the only way Metcalf truly smashes is if the Steelers – now run by Arthur Smith after the Russell Wilson trade – make a sudden, sustained shift to a pass-heavy approach, something he still rates as a long-shot. He compared Metcalf’s price to Jerry Jeudy’s two-round discount and asked, “What are we doing? There are plenty of other guys there I want.” Unless Pittsburgh’s pass rate over expected jumps well above the minus-8% Smith posted in Atlanta, Kerrane thinks Metcalf’s ceiling is capped and the floor is lower than people realize.

Jim Coventry likes DK Metcalf at his WR24 ADP after the move to Pittsburgh. He acknowledged Aaron Rodgers is no longer a deep-shot artist but stressed Rodgers wants to get the ball out quickly and has no real alternatives besides Metcalf (Calvin Austin and rookie Roman Wilson don’t move the needle). Even in Arthur Smith’s typically conservative scheme the top receiver averages 110-120 targets, and Coventry thinks Metcalf can nudge past that because OTAs already featured heavy slant usage. Smith’s play-action, quick-hitting routes once made A.J. Brown and Drake London highly efficient; Coventry expects Metcalf to become Rodgers’ big-bodied safety valve, piling up yards after the catch on a barrage of intermediate throws and ultimately out-producing his draft slot.

Mike Wright warned drafters not to chase DK Metcalf at a top-60 overall cost. Metcalf has failed to beat ADP in four straight seasons, and Wright doubts a move to Pittsburgh solves the problem. Aaron Rodgers demands precise route timing and prefers technicians, while Metcalf wins on raw physical dominance and improvisation—an uneasy stylistic fit. Add in Arthur Smith’s well-documented desire to rank near the bottom of the league in pass rate and Wright sees capped volume: he projects roughly 110–115 targets, far below what fantasy managers need at his draft slot. With two-tight-end sets featuring Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith further pinching wide-receiver snaps, Wright is content to let someone else pull the trigger unless Metcalf falls multiple rounds.

Jason Moore called DK Metcalf a screaming value at his current WR24, Round-5 price tag. Moore noted Metcalf will be the unquestioned No. 1 option for Aaron Rodgers after Pittsburgh shipped George Pickens out and added only depth names at receiver and tight end. Rodgers has a long history of peppering a single boundary alpha—Davante Adams averaged a 30% target share in Green Bay and Garrett Wilson saw a 34% share before Rodgers’ Week-1 injury last year. Moore expects Arthur Smith’s run-heavy tendencies to get overruled at the line of scrimmage, projecting a pass rate much higher than the Falcons years suggest. With Rodgers’ accuracy on back-shoulder throws meshing perfectly with Metcalf’s bully-ball skill set, Moore anticipates a jump from Metcalf’s 18% red-zone target share in Seattle to something north of 25% in Pittsburgh. He’s happy to grab Metcalf as a weekly WR2 who owns an every-week WR1 ceiling if the Steelers’ revamped offense clicks.

Holloway said he is ‘confident in DK Metcalf’ and views him as a glaring ADP value. With Pittsburgh’s wide-receiver room otherwise consisting of situational players like Calvin Austin, Metcalf projects for alpha-level volume from Aaron Rodgers despite Arthur Smith’s run-leaning tendencies. Holloway expects double-digit targets to be the norm and believes Metcalf’s current mid-third-round price tag in season-long and best-ball drafts ignores both the consolidated target tree and Rodgers’ historical efficiency throwing to big perimeter threats.

Jagger May warned that DK Metcalf’s boom-bust profile will crater in Pittsburgh. Arthur Smith wants to run first and lean on play-action, while Aaron Rodgers—who has openly called 2025 his final season—prefers a timing-based West Coast approach that favors crisp route technicians, not a straight-line bully like Metcalf. May noted that Rodgers and Smith together signal low pass volume, making Metcalf a "square peg in a round hole." Limited target competition (Roman Wilson, Pat Freiermuth) is not enough to offset the expected drop in overall attempts. With comparable or safer options such as Courtland Sutton, Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith, or Jameson Williams going in the same draft pocket, May is passing on Metcalf in season-long leagues.

R.J. White preferred the DK Metcalf yardage prop, backing over 950.5 receiving yards. He cited George Pickens pacing for 1,093 yards in Arthur Smith’s 2024 offense and noted that Metcalf has eclipsed 950 in five straight seasons despite missing two games last year. With Robert Woods the only other notable wideout, Metcalf should command a massive target share in Pittsburgh. White is skeptical touchdowns follow—Smith’s scheme produced only three WR touchdowns for Pickens—but believes volume between the 20s pushes Metcalf well past the posted yardage total.

Danny Brasco liked the over 7.5 touchdown prop on DK Metcalf at +120. He reminded listeners that Metcalf once banked 12 scores on just 75 catches and under 1,000 yards, showing he doesn’t need massive volume to find pay-dirt. With George Pickens gone, Metcalf is the unquestioned WR1 opposite only Pat Freiermuth in the red zone pecking order. Brasco expects Aaron Rodgers to lean on his new jump-ball alpha near the pylon, pointing to Rodgers’ history of force-feeding his top target (see Garrett Wilson last year). Eight spikes feels attainable even if yardage lags.

Andy Holloway said drafters are letting DK Metcalf fall too far, tagging him as "one of those obvious falling-too-far guys." Holloway liked the pick specifically for its reception upside, noting it should be a "really, really solid pick from a reception-total perspective" in full-PPR scoring. He preferred Metcalf over Tyreek Hill at current ADP because he feels far more confident in the weekly volume and touchdown equity Metcalf offers. Holloway urged managers not to overthink it—if Metcalf is still on the board in the mid-fourth, scoop him up before another manager does.

Ryan Heath is fading DK Metcalf at WR25 because Arthur Smith offenses do not feed wideouts. No Smith-coached receiver has eclipsed 115 targets, and Metcalf has never topped 1,000 yards or 13 FPG in a sub-115-target year. He profiles as a ‘big play merchant’—72% of such players see YPRR regression—and must now rely on 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who ranked 19th in deep-ball completion rate (38.6%) last season. Heath calls the entire Steelers passing attack an easy avoid.

Ryan Heath is fading DK Metcalf at his WR25 ADP. Metcalf profiles as a classic "big-play merchant"—his YPRR outpaces his 1D/RR, a combination that regresses 72% of the time. Volume is the bigger killer: no receiver has ever eclipsed 115 targets in an Arthur Smith offense, and Metcalf failed to reach 1,000 yards or 13 FPG in either of his sub-115-target campaigns. Smith’s units have ranked bottom-7 in pass plays three straight seasons, and 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers managed only a 38.6% deep-ball completion rate last year. Heath sees little chance Metcalf accesses a ceiling worthy of his price tag.

Ian Hartitz moved DK Metcalf up toward the WR20 line after realizing he keeps clicking on him in high-stakes drafts. Hartitz expects Pittsburgh to funnel 140–150 targets to its new $150-million man because the depth chart behind Metcalf is barren and Aaron Rodgers—while diminished—should still be the best Steelers quarterback since pre-elbow Ben Roethlisberger. Hartitz reminded listeners Metcalf already posted a WR10 season on similar volume in Seattle and believes that finish is once again "on the table" given the perfect confluence of massive contract, clear alpha status, and a veteran QB who loves to pepper his No. 1 downfield. He is now comfortable drafting Metcalf ahead of volatility magnets like D.J. Moore and offers him as a high-ceiling WR2 who can swing weeks in best ball or season-long formats.

Pete Overzet said the hypothetical Metcalf-for-Pickens deal that would send DK Metcalf to Dallas instantly juices both Metcalf’s and Dak Prescott’s best-ball value. With no established WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb, Metcalf would walk into a massive target share while keeping Lamb’s schemed-touch volume intact. Leone’s preliminary ranks (which Overzet referenced) bumped Dak several spots because the Cowboys’ pass efficiency would spike; Metcalf, meanwhile, gains weekly ceiling thanks to a quarterback who finished top-five in EPA per play last year and an offense that averaged 35.4 pass attempts even in positive game scripts. Overzet acknowledged concerns about Dallas’ overall throw rate if they play with more leads but said being the clear perimeter alpha offsets that risk. Bottom line: draft Metcalf confidently two or three picks ahead of current ADP and treat Dak as a mid-tier QB1 whenever you can complete the new stack cheaply.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said DK Metcalf’s ADP should "rise a little bit" from the low-50s because a 120-target season is a safe baseline even with quarterback uncertainty in Seattle. He acknowledged the team might still shuffle signal-callers but pointed out that Metcalf has never dipped below 22% target share or 110 targets in any healthy season. Pat expects Shane Waldron (or the incoming OC) to continue featuring deep crossers that suit Metcalf’s skill set, and with potential negative game scripts against a brutal NFC West, Metcalf could push toward 140 looks. Pat snaps him up whenever he falls past pick 50, calling it a "we take those" value.

Mattek cautioned drafters against aggressively moving DK Metcalf up boards following his surprise trade to Pittsburgh. He left Metcalf at WR55 in his ranks, explaining that the Steelers remain a "slow, brutal, run-heavy offense" with an uncertain quarterback room—most likely Will Howard or Mason Rudolph if the Aaron Rodgers rumors fizzle. Mattek highlighted Metcalf’s career-worst 1.81 yards per route run last season and noted that volume concerns will persist in a Mike Tomlin offense that wants to win ugly. In his view Metcalf may shift from the 5.04–5.08 range to the early-fifth, but that is a market mistake he’s willing to fade.

Coakley grabbed DK Metcalf in the 5th round and urged drafters to do the same now, predicting a sharp climb once Pittsburgh inevitably brings in a competent quarterback—he half-jokingly floated Aaron Rodgers as the veteran the Steelers could chase. Because early drafters are over-penalizing Metcalf for Kenny Pickett–level QB play, Coakley expects the market to correct the minute a starter is in place, making Metcalf a clear value in April drafts.

Drafting DK Metcalf in the 5th round now is the move, according to Coakley, because he expects the Seahawks to add a competent veteran quarterback—he even floated an Aaron Rodgers trade rumor. Once a name quarterback arrives, Coakley thinks drafters will ‘start double-counting again’ and Metcalf’s ADP will rocket into the late 3rd or early 4th. Grabbing him before that narrative shift locks in a free round-plus of closing-line value along with Metcalf’s proven weekly spike potential.