Jake Ciely is neutral-to-bearish on Geno Smith despite the 16th-round ADP. He expects Antonio Pierce to run a balanced Raiders attack featuring Zamir White and says the defense is good enough that Smith won’t need to throw 600 times. Ciely cited researcher Ryan Heath, who found that even last season’s struggling QBs delivered more catchable passes than Geno. With minimal rushing juice, Ciely believes Smith would need a massive volume spike that simply isn’t coming, making Michael Penix or Bryce Young much better late-round pivots.

Hayden Winks ranked Geno Smith ninth overall and called him a mis-priced fantasy starter and prop-bet target. Smith sits fifth in completion percentage over expected on 20-plus air-yard throws across the last three seasons and was PFF’s QB7 when kept clean in 2024 despite playing behind one of the league’s worst pass-blocking lines. Winks highlighted that Smith led the NFL in check-down success rate, proof he is reading defenses rather than settling. The blemish is an 8% interception rate on late-down, five-plus-yard attempts when he drifts into hero mode after the pocket breaks. Winks expects new OC Ryan Grubb’s tempo and quick-game concepts to limit those busted-play picks and set up more calibrated vertical shots to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. With current ADP around QB20, he urged season-long and best-ball drafters to scoop the discount and bet the over on Smith’s 3,900-yard passing prop.

Best Ball Guy called Geno Smith his “Baker Mayfield candidate” for 2024 drafts. Smith is going in the 14th round as QB26, yet BBG expects him to be selected in next year’s 10th-round QB window after a bounce-back season. He likes that Smith brings a 350-yard rushing baseline every full season and is now tied to what he labeled a “fun” up-tempo offense featuring Brock Bowers, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. BBG trusts Smith over rookies such as Cam Ward or Bryce Young and thinks the late price tag lets drafters hammer other positions early while still landing a quarterback who could climb at least four rounds in ADP by August and provide weekly ceiling during the fantasy playoffs.

The What argued that Geno Smith is a glaring value in current best-ball rooms because drafters have not priced in the realistic scenario of Las Vegas trading for him. He framed it as an easy late QB pick that can be immediately stacked with Jacoby Myers, noting that "the market in the slappies do not respect Geno Smith with the Raiders." Given the earlier segment where he cited multiple beat-writer links between the Raiders and Smith, The What views the combo as a cheap way to capture an every-week starter tied to a narrow target tree. His advice: scoop Smith well after pick 150 and pair him with Myers for an inexpensive correlation that could pay off if the rumblings become reality.

Best Ball Guy doubled-down on his earlier endorsement of Geno Smith, stressing that the market still has not caught up to the veteran’s combination of floor and ceiling. He reminded listeners that Smith has cleared 350 rushing yards in every full season of his career, giving him a built-in weekly floor that most late quarterbacks simply do not supply. The tout added that Las Vegas’ offseason upgrades – Chip Kelly calling plays, plus a suddenly deep pass-catcher group featuring Bowers, Gentee, Besh, Jakobi Myers and Davante Adams – raise both Smith’s efficiency and spike-week potential. He also pointed to the Raiders’ 9.5-win Vegas total as confirmation that the team projects to be competitive, further insulating Smith’s fantasy output. With an Underdog ADP that still drifts past pick 145, Best Ball Guy views Smith as “essentially free,” making him an ideal QB2 or even QB3 in the three-quarterback builds he has been championing all summer.

Best Ball Guy said Geno Smith is being drafted far too late ("Geno at 170, what are we talking about?") and believes the veteran can finish around QB10—"this year’s Baker Mayfield" for best-ball drafters. He pointed to Chip Kelly’s arrival as OC and expects a warp-speed offense that maximizes volume: Smith will be throwing to a deep pass-catcher room that now includes rookies Gentee, Bowers and Besh alongside Jakobi Myers. In that context, Smith’s current ADP outside the top-20 quarterbacks is a gift; drafters can grab him as a second or even third QB and still capture weekly spike weeks that matter most in playoff rounds.

Kev Coleman pushed back on the Geno Smith enthusiasm, highlighting red-flag metrics from 2023. Under pressure Smith posted the league’s 35th-best passer rating and the 4th-highest turnover-worthy-throw rate; when kept clean he jumped to 13th in rating and 23rd in turnover risk. Coleman worries the Raiders’ unproven offensive line will leave Smith exposed far more often than Seattle did. He also expects Chip Kelly to lean on the run, limiting pass volume and forcing Smith to rely on pinpoint efficiency to stay fantasy-relevant. Add age-related decline and what Coleman calls "zero resale value" in dynasty, and he sees Smith as no more than a two-year QB2 floor play—fine for a mid-second if you desperately need a starter, but a poor bet to ever gain value or reach low-end QB1 territory.

Rich Cooling called Geno Smith a screaming value at QB28 on DLF, noting that managers can acquire him for a mid-second in superflex formats. Smith just signed a fresh deal and enters a Chip Kelly offense loaded with weapons—Brock Bowers, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers—and an above-average run scheme that should keep defenses honest. Cooling believes the combination of scheme and talent locks Smith into top-24 fantasy production for at least the next two, and likely three, seasons. That profile makes him the perfect "bridge" QB3 for contenders who already roster a high-variance QB2 like Jordan Love or Michael Penix. Cooling’s rule of thumb is that any quarterback with three guaranteed starting seasons is worth a future 1st; since Smith costs half that, he views the move as a boring but championship-winning arbitrage play even though resale value will be minimal.

Steve Palazzolo said the Raiders shot their quarterback room from empty to viable QB1 territory by trading for Geno Smith. He pointed to Smith’s play over the last few seasons, calling him "at least a top-12 to 15 quarterback by every measure." Palazzolo believes the combination of Smith’s accuracy and Chip Kelly’s up-tempo scheme – the same system that unlocked Nick Foles’ 27-2 touchdown-to-interception campaign in 2013 and delivered Mark Sanchez’s career-best stretch – sets the table for weekly fantasy relevance. Add in Pete Carroll’s arrival as a proven culture changer and a draft class that supplied versatile playmakers such as Ashton Gentie and multiple big-bodied receivers, and Palazzolo expects a meaningfully higher passing ceiling. He framed Smith as a late-round steal in season-long leagues, a best-ball target whose spike weeks will come from volume and tempo, and a DFS pivot once salaries catch up, arguing the move improves Las Vegas immediately without mortgaging future roster flexibility.

Davis Mattek slotted Geno Smith in as the second quarterback on his current Best Ball Mania roster and explained why the veteran is the ideal late-round QB2. Mattek said, “They wrote me off, I didn’t write back,” calling that quote proof of the same ‘dog’ mentality scouts loved when Smith ran the 2012 West Virginia offense that turned Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey into living highlight tapes. In Mattek’s eyes, the deep-ball accuracy that produced those college explosions still shows up on film, giving Smith week-winning ceiling games whenever his big-play receivers hit. Because best-ball formats automatically capture those spike weeks, Mattek is comfortable drafting Smith behind an early stud like Josh Allen, believing the intangible edge plus proven vertical arm talent make him a cheap insurance policy that can swing playoff rounds if the Raiders find themselves in shoot-outs.

Davis Mattek said he would confidently take the over if bookmakers hang Geno Smith’s passing-TD prop around 22 or 23, as long as the veteran starts a full 17-game slate. Mattek reminded listeners that Smith has only had three true seasons as a starter and still cleared 22 touchdowns once—in Seattle’s notoriously conservative 2022 attack. He believes that number is Smith’s floor in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo scheme that historically finishes top-11 in total plays and projects a league-average or better scoring rate. Mattek pointed to the drastic upgrade in supporting talent—rookie bell-cow Ashton Gentry and generational tight end Brock Bowers—and projected a neutral-to-slightly negative pass rate over expectation but enough overall snaps for 580+ attempts. His takeaway for bettors is simple: if you get a 22-TD line, hit the over, with injury risk the only real sweat.

Davis Mattek argued that Geno Smith should be scooped up at his current late-round Best Ball price because the betting markets are underrating him. Books opened Smith at just 20.5 passing TDs and 3,500 yards, yet Mattek reminded listeners that even in Seattle’s conservative 2022 attack Smith reached 32 TDs and followed with 21 last year while ranking top-15 in composite EPA+CPOE. Mattek expects those numbers to climb behind Chip Kelly’s uptempo scheme (every Kelly NFL offense has finished top-11 in plays) and with an upgraded supporting cast featuring first-round RB Ashton Gentry and target-magnet Brock Bowers. He believes Las Vegas will still throw plenty—Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew combined for 17 TDs in the same environment—and projects Smith for a mid-QB1 ceiling if the offense scores at a league-average rate. Bottom line: Mattek is "going to draft a lot of Geno" and would take the overs on both posted prop lines.

Davis Mattek said he would take the over on Geno Smith’s 22-touchdown sportsbook prop as long as the veteran logs a full 17-game slate. Mattek argued that Smith’s career counting stats are misleading because he has only been a full-time starter for three seasons. With Chip Kelly calling plays, Las Vegas projects as an uptempo, YAC-centric attack that funnels red-zone chances to its two rookie stars. Mattek believes the improved supporting cast plus Kelly’s history of top-11 pass attempts in three of four NFL seasons raises Smith’s touchdown ceiling well above market expectations. He still views Smith as a QB2/3 in best ball, but the “over 22 TDs” ticket is his preferred way to invest.

Davis Mattek cautioned that Geno Smith’s counting stats are unlikely to pop in Las Vegas even though the quarterback is practically free in best-ball drafts. Sportsbooks opened Smith’s season props at just 20.5 passing touchdowns and 3,500 yards, a clear sign that the market expects a run-first approach from the Pete Carroll / Chip Kelly pairing. Mattek highlighted that Smith has eclipsed 30 touchdown passes only once (2022) and managed just 21 last year with better weapons. Now 35 years old, Smith is sandwiched between two rookie skill stars—first-round RB Ashton Gente and second-round TE Brock Bowers—so red-zone volume should funnel to the ground game and YAC opportunities rather than deep, fantasy-friendly strikes. Mattek is still willing to sprinkle Smith as a QB2/3 because of price, but he warned drafters not to chase a non-existent ceiling for DFS showdown slates or season-long leagues.

Jake Ciely argued that Geno Smith is getting ignored despite offering almost the exact same fantasy profile as Jordan Love. Ciely projected both quarterbacks for roughly 4,000 passing yards with a small but helpful rushing boost—"about 250-300 yards and a couple of scores on the ground"—yet drafters keep pushing Love up the board while letting Smith fall multiple rounds. Ciely reminded listeners that Smith has already delivered a full QB1 season in 2023 and still carries DK-Metcalf-level weaponry even if Antonio Pierce prefers a balanced attack. Because the market discounts him simply for changing teams and lacking offseason buzz, Ciely is happy to wait, skip the Love/Dak/Goff tier, and scoop Smith as a late QB2 who can post identical weekly spikes at a fraction of the cost.

Anthony Dabbundo said Geno Smith’s ugly 2023 red-zone numbers are primed for a sharp rebound now that he is out of Shane Waldron’s offense and operating indoors with the Raiders. Smith ranked bottom-five in touchdown rate inside the 20 last season, a slump Dabbundo blamed partly on play-calling; Waldron was fired after just one year and was "not particularly well liked" in Seattle. Smith now inherits Luke Getsy’s West Coast concepts and an upgraded skill group headlined by record-setting tight end Brock Bowers and chain-mover Jakobi Meyers. Dabbundo highlighted Smith’s lifetime splits—103.4 passer rating in domes versus 87.6 outdoors—and pointed out that 12 of Las Vegas’s 17 games will be under a roof. Between scheme change, friendlier environments, and better red-zone weapons, he expects Smith’s TD total to climb back into the mid-20s and labeled him a late-round fantasy quarterback with weekly DFS ceiling.

Davis Mattek highlighted Geno Smith, available around ADP 165, as one of his favorite late-round quarterback values. He noted that Smith sits in the same tier of weekly ceiling as passers being drafted 30–40 spots earlier but costs almost nothing, which frees drafters to hammer premium positions first. By starring Smith during his "draft-backwards" exercise, Mattek can confidently pass on mid-tier quarterbacks knowing a proven 4,000-yard passer with two elite receivers is waiting in the double-digit rounds. This price insulation lets him play a 2-QB build and still capture upside without sacrificing scarce wide-receiver capital.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound flagged Geno Smith as one of the last true discounts in Underdog’s new SuperFlex lobby. Smith opened the contest with a 96.0 ADP but is already coming off the board at 63 after only two-plus days of drafting. Pat expects the climb to continue because the tournament is barely 12 % full, meaning 9-of-10 final-day teams will have to pay an even steeper price once drafters finish pushing all starting quarterbacks into the top five rounds. He framed the pick as a ‘buy-now or watch him hit the 50s’ situation and prefers locking Smith in as a stable QB2 before the market fully reprices him alongside Brock Purdy and Jared Goff.

Erickson called Geno Smith a screaming value as a late QB2 after the veteran landed with Chip Kelly’s Raiders. Smith quietly ranks top-10 in big-time-throw percentage and still adds rushing yards—traits Erickson prizes for spike weeks. Kelly plans to run the ball often but at one of the league’s fastest paces; Erickson noted that 70-plus snaps per game would keep Smith’s pass attempts in line with more pass-heavy teams. The supporting cast is sneaky loaded: rookie mismatch Brock Bowers joins Jakobi Meyers as chain-moving options, and the staff has no doubts about Smith’s job security. Add it up and Erickson expects Smith to outperform his current ADP, making him an ideal counterpart to a higher-priced quarterback in Best Ball builds.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said the draft build built around Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young desperately needed a third quarterback and called missing Geno Smith a clear mistake. Smith was still on the board at picks 163-171, a pocket Pat views as the perfect spot to scoop a stable veteran who can paper over the floor concerns that come with two low-ceiling starters. He argued that spending that 14th-round pick on Geno would have "changed the whole trajectory of the team," giving the roster weekly survivability without sacrificing high-leverage receiver equity in earlier rounds. In Pat’s eyes, any draft that opens with shaky QB2s should plan to grab Geno in the 160s as an inexpensive insurance policy rather than forcing a Mayfield reach in the 90s.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Geno Smith is the perfect "naked" quarterback to grab in Underdog’s Eliminator. Because every round after Week 3 is a one-on-one coin-flip, Pat values steady weekly points over elaborate game stacks. Smith is currently slipping behind three rookie QBs despite logging 17 starts and finishing top-15 in fantasy points per game in back-to-back seasons. Seattle has finished top-12 in pass attempts each of those years and just imported OC Ryan Grubb’s up-tempo, vertical scheme while retaining Puka Nacua–level weapons in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Pat argued that simply staying healthy for 17 games gives Smith a bankable 15-20 points most weeks—enough to survive early multi-team cuts and steal a head-to-head matchup without any Seahawks pass-catcher on the roster. At his current ADP he views Smith as pure closing-line value and a core advance-rate pick in this format.

Pete Overzet singled out Geno Smith as one of his favorite quarterbacks in the 90-to-160 ADP window, calling that stretch the ‘sweet spot’ for three-QB builds. Smith is routinely the last passer in that tier to come off the board despite finishing 10th in EPA per drop-back two years ago and retaining DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Overzet believes Seattle’s modest pass-rate projections are already fully priced in, while drafters are overlooking Smith’s sneaky 20-plus rushing-yard floor and cheap stacking partners. Because Best Ball Mania rooms bunch nine quarterbacks in that pocket, grabbing Smith around pick 150 lets you pair him with an earlier upside QB (Stroud, Tua, Kyler) and still tack on a late flyer like Tyler Shough for bye-week coverage. The strategy locks in weekly usability without paying the Round-4 tax attached to the elite names.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Geno Smith the perfect "panic quarterback" when early stacks fall apart. He pointed out that Smith routinely slides 10–15 picks past ADP yet carries almost zero benching risk—Seattle did not draft a quarterback and has fully guaranteed his 2024 salary. Pat likes pairing Geno’s late spike weeks with any of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba because the trio guarantees at least one solid weekly ceiling game. Geno’s 4.9% big-time throw rate last year quietly matched Jared Goff, and Seattle still plays fast (6th in situational neutral pace). Pat is happily grabbing Smith as QB2 around pick 150 whenever the room leaves him there.

Mattek called Geno Smith “one of the skeleton keys for fantasy football this year.” If the veteran starts a full 17-game slate, Mattek believes his combination of steady volume, rushing sprinkles, and an underpriced stacking environment with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can swing Best Ball tournaments. Because Smith slips well past QB20 in current ADP, drafters can pair him with an elite quarterback for spike-week coverage without sacrificing early picks.

Michael Leone said Geno Smith is the quarterback he wants when you are hunting for a third passer in the double‐digit rounds, especially on rosters that already roster Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Leone noted that Smith sits several spots higher than Sam Darnold in both ETR’s projections and current ADP, so you are actually gaining closing-line value while still capturing stack correlation. Because JSN was their WR1, anchoring that bet to Seattle’s starter lets you benefit from any Seahawks shootouts rather than praying for JSN to get there on raw volume alone. Leone added that Smith has quietly finished top-10 in completion rate and EPA per drop-back in back-to-back seasons, so you are not sacrificing efficiency to grab the stack. He framed Smith as the perfect late quarterback who both fits your rankings model and unlocks a cheap ceiling game in Best Ball Mania week-17 formats.