Pete Overzet noted that J.J. McCarthy’s ADP is all over the place—he has seen him go as early as 110 to Justin Jefferson drafters and fall into the 130s in other rooms—creating a buying window for managers who already own Vikings skill players. Because his roster carried Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, Overzet preferred McCarthy over Michael Penix at pick 130, calling the move a cheap way to assemble a ‘Minnesota megastack.’ He added that with Josh Allen already locked in as QB1, drafters don’t need McCarthy to start every week; they just need a couple of spike games down the stretch, which lines up with late-season rookie improvement trends. The takeaway: if you already have Vikings pass catchers, wait for McCarthy’s slide and grab him in the 11th round to maximize correlation without sacrificing quarterback firepower.

Tyler Knaeble said he is willing to push J.J. McCarthy up to roughly pick 140—well ahead of ADP—whenever he already has Justin Jefferson on a roster. He reminded viewers that Minnesota ranked third in neutral-situation pass rate last season and spent top-10 draft capital plus extra picks on McCarthy, signaling the rookie will take over for Sam Darnold sooner rather than later. Knaeble thinks Darnold’s shaky pocket presence makes a mid-season handoff almost inevitable and that the Jefferson-McCarthy combo offers unique late-season upside at a modest price. He also pointed out that a Week-17 showdown with Green Bay gives the stack natural bring-back correlation in Best Ball Mania finals. Given that McCarthy is currently going 20-plus spots after fellow first-round rookies, Knaeble views the small reach as +EV closing-line value once beat writers start charting first-team reps in August.

Jakob Sanderson argued that dynasty managers are overpaying for J.J. McCarthy. Sanderson noted the rookie attempted fewer passes in his entire college career than Caleb Williams completed, labeling him a low-volume, low-rushing profile similar to Mac Jones. Even if Kevin O’Connell keeps Minnesota among the league leaders in neutral-situation pass rate, Sanderson believes McCarthy’s fantasy ceiling tops out at Sam Darnold–level QB1 weeks, which would still leave him only in the late-20s of Superflex startup value. He warned that the Vikings fan base just watched Darnold thrive in the same scheme, so patience will evaporate quickly if McCarthy struggles. Because a poor rookie season could send his value crashing, Sanderson recommends treating McCarthy as a back-end QB2 rather than paying current top-15 prices.

Davis Mattek urged drafters to be more aggressive on J.J. McCarthy, calling him the rare rookie quarterback set up to smash early and hold dynasty value. McCarthy is locked into a five-year rookie deal, will play at least nine dome games annually, and gets to sling it to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Ty Felton, and T.J. Hockenson under Kevin O’Connell’s pass-first system. Mattek noted that Minnesota ranked top-6 in neutral-situation pass rate last year and expects a similar philosophy after guaranteeing Sam Darnold $100 million to serve as only a short-term bridge. Even a league-average 32–34 pass attempts per game could produce QB1 weeks thanks to elite YAC weapons and controlled indoor environments that minimize weather variance. Mattek concluded that McCarthy’s combination of contract length, supporting cast, and dome schedule makes him a screaming buy anywhere he is priced outside the top-12 dynasty quarterbacks.