Matt LaMarca pointed out that J.K. Dobbins handled 62% of Denver’s carries and most short-yardage snaps while second-rounder R.J. Harvey saw only 23%. With the second-largest gap between projected ownership and optimal-lineup rate in SimLabs, Dobbins is flagged as one of the slate’s most undervalued tournament backs at $5,600, especially with Sean Payton historically slow to elevate first-year players.

Ian Hartitz said J.K. Dobbins is a buy in the mid-round dead zone, highlighting Sean Payton’s history of producing multiple RB1 seasons (2017 Saints with Kamara/Ingram and 2023 Dolphins with Achane/Mostert). Second-round pick RJ Harvey will have a role, yet Hartitz noted doctors expect Dobbins to be closer to 100 % two years removed from his Achilles and he was already RB12 in rush yards over expected per carry (+0.6) last year. Despite social-media jokes about his top speed, Next Gen Stats clocked Dobbins faster than Kyren Williams and Travis Etienne in 2024. Hartitz views him as a FLEX-with-benefits priced like a pure handcuff— perfect for zero-or hero-RB builds when the WR pool has dried up.

Kevin Szafraniec labeled J.K. Dobbins the safest bet in what he called a “gross” mid-round running back window. Despite preseason hype for RJ Harvey, Szafraniec expects Dobbins to open the year as Sean Payton’s primary back and maintain a steady weekly touch share. He pointed to Payton’s career-long tendency to lean on a lead runner and argued that in builds looking for stability after an RB-heavy start, Dobbins’ ADP offers a reliable floor that the surrounding backs simply do not.

Sean Koerner said J.K. Dobbins is being slept on in the RB30-35 draft range. Payton wants a classic "Thunder & Lightning" backfield and has already called R.J. Harvey his Alvin Kamara type, leaving Dobbins to soak up the Mark Ingram early-down and goal-line work. Denver completely rebuilt the top of its RB depth chart after ranking 29th in rush EPA last year despite a top-10 offensive line. Koerner noted the preseason helmet mishap—Dobbins was supposed to take the first snap over Harvey—as evidence the staff already sees him as the nominal starter. A healthy Dobbins carries a weekly RB3 floor with true RB2 upside if Harvey misses time, and the cost is still outside the top 30 backs in most season-long drafts.

Ben Gretch argued that J.K. Dobbins remains an undervalued piece of Sean Payton’s backfield. Sports Info Solutions graded Dobbins as a top-five runner against heavy boxes, and Gretch noted that Payton swapped out last year’s inefficient backs specifically to capture that trait. Denver still finished fourth in RB targets in 2024 – which Gretch labeled a floor outcome – so he expects a jump that could push Dobbins to roughly 40 catches even while sharing with RJ Harvey. Payton’s offenses have perennially lived off backfield receiving, and with Bo Nix’s conservative, success-rate style, Dobbins’ elite short-area burst should translate to steady PPR production well ahead of his current ADP.

Jakob Sanderson cautioned that JK Dobbins’ ceiling is thinner than drafters want to believe. While a local report suggested a 70-30 early-season split in Dobbins’ favor, Sanderson reminded listeners that Dobbins produced only one game above 24.5 PPR points for the Chargers last season and still lacks the pre-injury explosion that once defined his profile. Denver immediately spent a 5th-round pick on RJ Harvey—a sign the staff felt they had "zero juice" after two years of sub-efficient production from Javonte Williams and company. Early preseason usage backed that up: Harvey dominated ground work with the starters, while Dobbins was relegated to pass-pro downs. Given Payton’s history of riding the hotter, more explosive back and the 70 vacated RB targets left by Williams, Sanderson prefers to pass on Dobbins in the 8th–9th round and redirect that capital toward higher-upside bets.

Erik Beimfohr said drafters are sleeping on J.K. Dobbins at his current 9th-round ADP (~100 overall). Local beat reporter Ben Albright keeps repeating that Dobbins is the unquestioned Week-1 starter, and Sean Payton’s offenses have historically pumped running-back fantasy production (Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Reggie Bush). Beimfohr added that Denver’s offensive line quietly graded out top-10 in run-block win rate last year and expects another step forward from the unit. The Broncos should score more points as Bo Nix settles in, creating high-value goal-line touches. While Dobbins’ past health issues cap his season-long ceiling, Beimfohr framed him as the perfect early-season workhorse for Zero-RB builds: grab starter touches in September/October, then “hand the baton” to cheaper contingent bets like RJ Harvey once the mileage catches up. At pick 100 you’re buying a starting job, Payton’s pass-game scheming for backs, and a strong line—all the ingredients you want in best-ball.

Hayden Winks downgraded J.K. Dobbins after charting Denver’s first preseason series: Dobbins handled all five third-down snaps but zero early-down carries, yielding every rushing opportunity to RJ Harvey. Winks framed the deployment as a reprise of last season’s Javonte Williams usage—pure pass protection and check-downs—with minimal path to goal-line touches. Unless Dobbins earns early-down work in the next two exhibition games, Winks plans to keep him outside his top-40 backs because the current role offers little more than a floor PPR flex and almost no week-winning upside.

Erik Beimfohr said J.K. Dobbins is an auto-click around pick 100 for zero-RB or Hero-WR builds. Broncos beat reporter Ben Albright has repeatedly stated Dobbins is the clear week-one starter for Sean Payton, a coach who has a long track record of funneling touches to one lead back and producing top-12 fantasy seasons (think Pierre Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram). Denver’s offensive line graded top-10 in adjusted line yards last year and the offense projects to be more efficient with Bo Nix in year two, giving Dobbins early-season touchdown equity. Beimfohr acknowledged Dobbins’ durability concerns but framed that as a feature, not a bug: you get the first leg of the relay at a discount, then pass the baton to late-round bets such as RJ Harvey or Nathaniel Tuton when the wheels inevitably come off. The combination of confirmed week-one role, historically friendly scheme, and a ninth-round ADP makes Dobbins a perfect starter pack for zero-RB drafters.

Erik Beimfohr argued that J.K. Dobbins is a screaming value around pick 100 as the expected starting running back in Sean Payton’s first year with Denver. Payton’s offenses have routinely funneled touches to a lead back (Alvin Kamara averaged 19.2 opportunities per game in New Orleans), and Beimfohr noted that Denver’s staff has already spoken about leaning on the ground game while their young quarterback develops. Dobbins averaged 5.4 yards per carry in his most recent healthy season and showed top-20 per-touch fantasy efficiency despite a limited role in Baltimore. With only Samaje Perine and mid-round rookie Audric Estime behind him, Dobbins has a clear path to 60–65% of snaps and the bulk of goal-line work. Beimfohr acknowledged Dobbins’ injury history but emphasized that Payton’s scheme, Denver’s upgraded offensive line, and a projected neutral-to-positive game script in an AFC West lacking dominant defenses give him legitimate RB1 weeks if he simply stays on the field. At his ninth-round ADP, the combination of feature-back volume and explosive per-touch profile makes him a cornerstone pick for both Best Ball and hero-RB redraft builds.

Davis Mattek highlighted J.K. Dobbins as a screaming value, noting that Sleeper ADP lets you grab him roughly 50 picks after backs such as Isaiah Pacheco and DeAndre Swift even though he expects their fantasy scoring ranges to be "not that dissimilar." Snagging Dobbins in the double-digit rounds supplies cheap RB2 upside behind an early hero back while preserving premium picks for wide receivers.

Andy Holloway said the best way to attack the crowded Denver backfield is to wait until the double-digit rounds and snag J.K. Dobbins. Holloway noted Dobbins has handled most of the preseason first-team work and currently sits atop the depth chart, a signal beat reporter Benjamin Albright trusts. While Holloway still believes R.J. Harvey will finish the year as the more valuable Bronco, he called Harvey’s early-fifth-round ADP ridiculous and pegged the seventh round as Harvey’s fair value. The combination of inexpensive draft cost, first-team reps, and the possibility Harvey’s price never falls makes Dobbins a low-risk, high-upside stash in Season-Long and Best-Ball formats.

Jason Moore said J.K. Dobbins is the clear better value in redraft leagues than rookie R.J. Harvey. Moore cited Broncos beat reporter Benjamin Albright projecting a 70-30 early-season split favoring Dobbins because Harvey is struggling in pass protection. He reminded listeners that Sean Payton has always leaned on veterans he trusts in protection, pointing to Reggie Bush’s limited rookie usage as precedent. Because Dobbins is going in the double-digit rounds while Harvey costs a fifth-round pick, Moore believes fantasy managers get immediate starter points with minimal risk. He acknowledged Harvey could still finish the season as the more valuable asset, but advised taking the cheap production up front and letting the backfield sort itself out later.

Geoff Ulrich pegged J.K. Dobbins as an ideal mid-round pick for TD-only formats. Denver’s offense owns a 9.5 win total and signed Dobbins specifically to handle between-the-tackles and goal-line work while rookie RJ Harvey profiles as a pass-catcher. Beat-report snippets from camp already show Dobbins running with the first-team in short-yardage drills. Ulrich expects Denver to feature him inside the 5-yard line, giving managers exposure to a likely double-digit TD scorer at a discount.

Nick Beaudoin wrote that J.K. Dobbins is now more than a year removed from any major injury and “just showed us the best football of his career.” Running behind what he called “one of the NFL’s most dominant lines,” Dobbins “should be one of the most valuable handcuffs entering this season, with RB1 upside if RJ Harvey were to miss time.” The tout recommends stashing Dobbins late in drafts for his clean bill of health, premium blocking, and direct contingency path to a feature role.

Best Ball Guy said J.K. Dobbins is "looking like the starter in Denver" and expects him to open the season as the first man through the rotation. He acknowledged Sean Payton’s long-standing habit of shuffling backs, but argued that whoever soaks up the high-value touches in this backfield routinely posts spike weeks. With Dobbins practicing as the lead option and still priced in the mid-rounds, Best Ball Guy believes the market is under-reacting to his starting-job odds and views him as a strong value in best-ball drafts.

Dobbins’ move to Denver yanked his ADP up from 190.5 to 112.6 (+77.9, +40.9 %), and Donabedian still views him as a solid buy. While conceding the post-Achilles explosiveness may never fully return, he noted that Dobbins is an assignment-sound back who can block or catch, giving him three-down pathways in an offense that could pop if Bo Nix takes a Year-2 leap. Donabedian is comfortable drafting both Dobbins and RJ Harvey at current prices.

Corbin Young said J.K. Dobbins is the smartest way to buy into Denver’s rushing attack after the veteran inked a one-year deal worth just under $3 million. Young emphasized that the contract’s modest size keeps the Broncos financially flexible while still signaling real interest in Dobbins’ upside, and he noted the running back is available in the late rounds of current drafts. Because fantasy drafters are paying a premium for the younger backfield option, Young framed Dobbins as a rare same-team arbitrage play that lets managers capture Sean Payton touchdown equity at a steep discount.

Dobbins’ signing rocketed his ADP from 190.5 to 112.6 (+40.9 %). Donabedian concedes the 2020 explosiveness is probably gone but argues the former Raven still blocks, catches, and processes well enough to play all three downs. In an offense that could take a leap if Bo Nix progresses, Donabedian thinks Dobbins and incumbent RJ Harvey are both undervalued back-end RB2/borderline flex options at their new prices.

Tom Strachan pointed out that J.K. Dobbins’ Underdog ADP has rocketed 36 spots to 112 since he landed in Denver. Broncos beat writers expect a clear committee, yet Strachan emphasized that Dobbins is penciled in for two of fantasy’s highest-leverage roles: third-down work and goal-line carries. He ranked 4th among all running backs in PFF pass-blocking grade last season, a trait Strachan said will keep him on the field in obvious passing situations. Even with his well-documented injury history, Dobbins set personal bests in attempts (195), rushing yards (905), yards per game (69.6), targets (38) and receptions (32) in 2024. Strachan views those career-high usage numbers plus the projected money-touch work as enough upside to justify drafting him in the mid-9th round of best ball despite R.J. Harvey handling most early downs.

Strachan urged drafters to grab J.K. Dobbins at his current 116 ADP before he climbs inside the top-100. Reports from Broncos camp indicate Dobbins, not RJ Harvey, is penciled in for third-down and goal-line work—touches Sean Payton historically funnels to a single back. Dobbins ranked fourth among all running backs in PFF pass-blocking grade last year, a weakness Payton has publicly cited for Harvey. Already another season removed from his knee injuries, Dobbins set career bests in carries (195), rushing yards (905) and receptions (32) in 2024. Strachan calls him a "relatively risk-free" way to pick up three-down upside at a discount.

Buck declared that J.K. Dobbins will ‘straight-up outscore’ Brian Robinson Jr. this season. He prefers Dobbins’ explosive profile and the Broncos’ commitment to feature him near the goal line over Robinson’s merely ‘perfectly fine’ early-down role in Washington. Buck believes Denver’s half-point-PPR environment on Underdog further tilts the scales because Dobbins offers big-play juice while Robinson rarely catches passes. Drafting Dobbins several rounds after backs like Isiah Pacheco or Tony Pollard allows drafters to bank ceiling without paying the high opportunity cost those names require, making him a priority target in the double-digit rounds.

Jim Coventry said J.K. Dobbins is a late-round swing worth taking because Denver under Sean Payton will lean on its rugged offensive line and a run-heavy approach. Coventry stressed that Payton "loves to run the ball," making Dobbins the kind of stash who could rack up early-down volume and surprise as an RB2 once he’s fully healthy.

Bob Harris called J.K. Dobbins the move he is "most eager" to make among backs on new teams. Broncos beat-writer Cecil Lammey told Harris the plan is for Dobbins to operate as the 1A with rookie RJ Harvey as the 1B, and that aligns with Harris’ read of the situation. He likes the veteran for goal-line work and every-down reliability, while Harvey profiles as a change-of-pace player at 205 pounds. Current ADP, which treats the backfield as a 50-50 split, therefore undervalues Dobbins’ touch projection in Harris’ eyes.

Colm Kelly cautioned against chasing J.K. Dobbins at his new Round 9-10 ADP, calling the jump "astonishing." Dobbins’ history of multiple lower-body injuries and diminished explosiveness make him unlikely to reclaim the form that once made him a breakout darling. Kelly believes drafters are pricing in a best-case scenario while ignoring that rookie RJ Harvey is younger, healthier and already pencilled in for early-down and goal-line work. With a fragile workload ceiling and significant re-injury risk, Dobbins is a fade at cost.

Best Ball Guy argued that late-round J.K. Dobbins is being mis-priced relative to Javonte Williams in Underdog Superflex drafts. He expects Sean Payton to split touches between the two backs but noted Payton’s history of favoring whichever runner shows more efficiency early—"if Sean Payton likes him more than the rookie, it doesn’t even matter." BBG is betting Dobbins will out-gain Williams on a per-carry basis coming off a full year of Achilles rehab and sees a path to 12-15 carries as soon as Week 1, plus goal-line equity in an offense that ranked 7th in red-zone rush rate last season. Because drafters must spend a top-100 pick on Javonte while Dobbins lingers into the 15th-round range, BBG is scooping the veteran as a cheap RB4/5 who can jump tiers if Payton’s trust tilts his way or if Williams’ durability issues flare up again.

JSU drew a hard line on J.K. Dobbins once the market pushed him from near-undrafted territory (pick 180) to the Round 9–10 neighborhood (around 110 overall). He reminded listeners that Dobbins ‘hit a wall’ down the stretch last season—his yards after contact dropped from 3.0 to 2.1 after Week 10—and a second Achilles surgery leaves little confidence that explosiveness suddenly returns. At his new cost Dobbins must leapfrog Javonte Williams for early-down work while still seeing targets, a workload JSU considers highly unlikely in Sean Payton’s committee-heavy backfields. Instead of chasing last year’s discount that no longer exists, JSU is simply avoiding Dobbins and betting the veteran’s efficiency craters again, letting late drafters eat the downside of a 26-year-old back with two major leg injuries.

The What mocked the idea that J.K. Dobbins will matter in Denver, noting the running back "doesn’t have much of an Achilles left" after last year’s rupture. He expects Sean Payton to bench Dobbins at the first missed blitz pickup in favor of Jaleel McLaughlin or rookie Audric Estime. With Payton’s short leash and a crowded committee, The What sees Dobbins as little more than an injury-prone camp body whose best-ball appeal vanished the moment he signed in Denver.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called J.K. Dobbins the best remaining closing-line value in the running back pool. Denver beat reporters and Sean Payton have been "weirdly bullish" about Dobbins’ Achilles recovery, and Pat thinks the second he practices in full pads his Underdog ADP will rocket from the 108 range into the 80s. He reminded viewers that Payton historically features a lead back 60-plus percent of snaps (Kamara, Pierre Thomas, Deuce McAllister) and that Javonte Williams still looks explosive but carries his own knee-and-hip baggage. Pat was scooping Dobbins around pick 170 earlier in the summer and is still holding a 10 % portfolio share despite the climb; he urged drafters who missed that window to "catch up now before August hype does the rest," projecting a healthy Dobbins for low-end RB2 usage with weekly 20-point upside if he recaptures his pre-injury 5.9 yards per carry efficiency.

Mike Wright said J.K. Dobbins makes sense as a double-digit-round flyer even though the veteran’s juice looked gone late last year. Wright acknowledged Dobbins’ yards after contact cratered post-Achilles (down to 2.1) and expects Sean Payton to run a true committee—he invoked the old Kamara/Ingram splits to warn against expecting a workhorse. Still, Denver’s improved offensive line returns all five starters, the early schedule is soft against the run, and Payton showed last season he will ride the hot hand (Tyler Badie Weeks). If the summer rumor that Dobbins will open camp as the starter proves accurate, Wright thinks drafters get a potential goal-line lead back essentially for free, with the understanding his leash will be short if RJ Harvey proves superior.

Davis Mattek advised aggressively targeting J.K. Dobbins in Underdog’s time-boxed contests like The Puppy, calling him "one of the strongest picks" for drafters who need early-season flex points. Mattek selected Dobbins ahead of Zach Charbonnet and Byshal Tutton because he expects the veteran to score more usable weeks while the Broncos sort out their committee. He acknowledged that late-spring drafts snagged Dobbins in Rounds 16-18, but argued the price correction is still short of his true value—especially in smaller-entry tournaments where banked points matter more than playoff uniqueness. Mattek does not consider Dobbins’s current Best Ball Mania tag "undraftable" yet, and he thinks continued Puppy steam will eventually push the price higher. In short, grab the discounted Denver back now, lock in early flex production, and worry about closing-line value later.

Hayden Winks said J.K. Dobbins still costs too much for a back coming off an Achilles tear and headed for a timeshare in Denver. Winks noted there is "no discount" in current drafts, yet early reports hint at a three-man committee that could siphon both passing-down work and goal-line carries. Without clear bell-cow volume, Dobbins projects as a low-ceiling RB3 whose median scoring can be replicated several rounds later. Winks is skipping him in favor of upside backs like Tyjae Spears or Isaac Guerendo, who offer clearer paths to 20-point spike weeks.

Tyler Knaeble warned that J.K. Dobbins’ Underdog price "is rising, man, and is only going higher." He noted that Dobbins has already jumped multiple rounds since signing with Denver and expects another surge once beat writers confirm he is the early-down favorite in Sean Payton’s historically productive two-back system. Knaeble reiterated his earlier thesis—Payton has supported tandem RB fantasy relevance for years—so Dobbins’ combination of clear rushing volume, red-zone equity, and still-discounted ADP makes him a priority click right now. Knaeble proudly cited his 14–20% exposure in early drafts and urged drafters to add shares before training-camp buzz pushes Dobbins into the mid-rounds.

Tyler Knaeble said J.K. Dobbins projects as Denver’s early-down runner and believes Sean Payton’s history of supporting multiple productive backs makes that role highly draftable. Knaeble reminded viewers that Payton has routinely found ways for two runners to matter in fantasy, so Dobbins can handle the between-the-tackles carries while a second back works passing downs without either one getting squeezed. Because of that combination of clear rushing volume and a friendly scheme, Knaeble is targeting Dobbins in both Best Ball and traditional season-long formats at his current discount.

Tyler Knaeble said the mid-July report that J.K. Dobbins could be Denver’s lead back is "nothing to freak out about." He pointed to past summer puff pieces—Skyy Moore being labeled Kansas City’s "leading receiver," Kadarius Toney carrying the highest Chiefs ADP, Rashee Rice tagged as the must-draft rookie—as proof that early-camp buzz is almost always overstated. Because those narratives rarely hold once pads come on, Knaeble will happily draft more Dobbins if the market panics and his ADP slips. His takeaway for best-ball drafters: treat July beat-writer hype as noise and exploit any discount it creates on a proven talent like Dobbins.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said J.K. Dobbins has already rocketed from the 190s into the low-120s and no longer offers a discount. With Sean Payton auditioning multiple backs in Denver, Pat believes there is still too much uncertainty to pay a top-120 price tag. Until camp clarifies the depth chart he is pivoting to Tyjae Spears and rookie Ray Davis in the same range, arguing both have cleaner paths to three-down workloads if the starters in front of them falter.

Jason Moore called J.K. Dobbins one of the best risk-reward plays on the entire draft board. He noted that Sean Payton keeps saying the Broncos’ backfield is “too early to project”, which leaves the door wide open for Dobbins to beat out rookie R.J. Harvey. Moore highlighted that Dobbins is currently RB43 with a 12th-round ADP, yet he is only two years removed from averaging 5.9 yards per carry in Baltimore and arriving in Denver with no guaranteed money on Harvey’s deal to block him. If the veteran wins the starting job—or even a 1A share—managers are getting an explosive runner with league-winning upside for the price of a bench stash. Moore urged season-long and best-ball drafters to scoop him everywhere, calling it a “no-brainer flyer” given the shallow pool of backs who can still capture 250 touches that late.

Pat Kerrane endorsed taking BOTH Broncos backs—rookie Audric Harvey and veteran J.K. Dobbins—in the mid-rounds, calling Denver the rare backfield where a double dip boosts ceiling and floor. He cited Sean Payton’s decade-long track record of deploying two fantasy-relevant runners, Denver’s top-10 graded offensive line, and an expected second-year leap from Bo Nix that should keep the offense balanced rather than pass-centric. Unlike most committees, Kerrane believes Payton will scheme high-value touches (targets and goal-line work) for both backs, making 12–15 PPR points from each a realistic weekly outcome. For Zero-RB or anchor-RB builds, the pairing lets drafters lock in bankable production without burning extra late picks chasing random backups.

Tom Strachan said J.K. Dobbins’ ADP spike from 181 to 135 is warranted because Denver beat writers unanimously expect a three-man committee in which Dobbins handles third-down work and opens the season as the preferred goal-line back. Strachan noted Dobbins finished 4th among all RBs in PFF pass-block grade last year and is coming off career highs in carries (195), rushing yards (905), targets (38) and catches (32). He added a Fantasy Points Data study that ranked Dobbins 4th in yards per carry when first contact occurred 1+ yards past the line of scrimmage (7.50), trailing only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. Given the Broncos’ inexperienced offense and likely negative game scripts, Strachan believes Dobbins’ receiving role gives him weekly spike-week appeal that is not fully priced into his current Underdog ADP.

Billy Jones said Dobbins landed in a near-perfect situation with Sean Payton’s Broncos and forecasted a rapid ADP climb from 148 into the 130s and eventually the low-120s. Jones expects Dobbins to open the season as Denver’s lead back—citing Payton’s history of leaning on one runner early—before ceding more work later in the year. He slotted Dobbins just behind Rhamondre Stevenson in his personal ranks and ahead of backs like Ray Davis and Tajay Spears, noting that those players do not have the same clear early-season touch projection. Jones urged drafters who still see Dobbins in the late-12th/early-13th to scoop shares now because the window will close once training-camp reports confirm he’s fully healthy.

Steph Miller is scooping J.K. Dobbins in the mid-150s, expecting his price to settle in the low-130s once beat-writers tweet daily "full-speed" clips from camp. She tracked his draft-board trajectory: 154 on Tuesday, 140 in sharper rooms by Wednesday, and predicts a gradual rise as coach-speak keeps glowing. Steph still plans to fade if he crosses into the 120s—echoing her earlier warning—but views the current window as free equity. Her rationale: Sean Payton repeatedly said he wants to lean on a single early-down back, and Denver’s revamped run-blocking unit added maulers Frank Ragnow and Blake Fisher. Even a 55% share would give Dobbins double-digit TD upside in Payton’s historically efficient red-zone schemes (top-6 in RB rush TD rate in nine of his 15 seasons).

Steph Miller warned against chasing J.K. Dobbins as his Underdog ADP rockets from the mid-160s toward the 120s in the wake of recent news. She is willing to grab "a couple of shares in the 140s" but will pass as soon as he is priced next to Rhamondre Stevenson and Zach Charbonnet. Steph argued that post-injury Dobbins offers almost no pass-catching juice, and early OTA reports indicate Denver plans to rotate three backs—Audric Estime in short yardage, Jaleel McLaughlin in space, and Samaje Perine/Harvey in protection—leaving Dobbins with a low-value early-down role. Although he graded out as Denver’s best runner last year, Steph said that was "more about how bad the other backs were than how good he was." Given the committee risk, lack of receiving upside, and price inflation, she considers Dobbins a trap pick anywhere north of 130 overall and recommends waiting for a correlated fall or simply fading him.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said J.K. Dobbins is an automatic click in Rounds 16-17 of BBM6. Dobbins received an unrestricted-free-agent tender from the Chargers that would pay $3.4 million if no one signs him by July 22, a move Pat thinks signals legitimate league-wide interest. Because the tender guarantees L.A. a compensatory pick, the team is protected whether he leaves or stays. Pat argued Dobbins needs only two spike weeks to smash his ADP: 6-7 touches plus one long play or goal-line TD easily clears late-round expectations. Even a “worst-case” committee role behind Gus Edwards is fine, while a landing spot such as Washington—where the backfield lacks explosiveness—could unlock double-digit weekly upside. Pat prefers Dobbins over backs like Najee Harris and Kimani Vidal at similar prices because the opportunity cost is minimal and the ceiling is still 20+ half-PPR points in any week he hits a big run.

Billy Jones insisted J.K. Dobbins is the clear next running back drafters should click once the tier around pick 170 dries up. He reminded viewers that Dobbins averaged 5.8 yards per carry in games he started and finished for Baltimore and tore his Achilles early enough in 2023 to be full-go for 2024 camps. The market is still pricing him like an unsigned flier, but Jones expects a quick ADP jump the moment the Chargers officially confirm him as Austin Ekeler’s replacement in their new Joe Lombardi–lite scheme. Los Angeles ran the ball 53% of red-zone snaps last year, and Gus Edwards is gone, leaving 35 vacated goal-line carries. Jones projects 230 combined touches and double-digit TD upside for Dobbins if he wins that job, calling the current discount “free equity that disappears the second Schefter tweets the contract details.”

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told listeners to sprinkle late-round shares of free-agent J.K. Dobbins because he thinks the Cowboys are the most logical landing spot. Dallas has only rookie Jaden Blue and depth bodies behind presumed starter Javonte Williams, and the front office has already kicked the tires on multiple veteran backs. Pat said Dobbins ‘fits perfectly’ in Mike McCarthy’s zone-heavy run game and would immediately vacuum up the goal-line work that produced 14 rushing TDs for the backfield last year. If the signing happens, Dobbins’ current 18th-round price would jump eight-plus rounds overnight while simultaneously nuking Blue’s path to touches. Pat advised drafters to act now, calling it a classic asymmetric bet: “if he lands in Dallas you just printed closing-line value; if he doesn’t, you burn an 18th-round pick.”

Davis Mattek explained that J.K. Dobbins’ current restricted-free-agent status is comp-pick related only—he must sign somewhere before July 27 or the Chargers automatically retain his rights. Mattek expects a deal well ahead of that deadline, noting Baltimore used the same mechanism with Diontae Johnson before he inked elsewhere. Once Dobbins puts pen to paper, Mattek projects a sharp ADP spike, especially if the landing spot offers a clear path to early touches. He floated Dallas as the dream scenario, estimating Dobbins would jump to an 11.5 half-PPR points-per-game projection in a Tony Pollard-style role. Because current drafts price in uncertainty, Mattek is scooping Dobbins multiple rounds ahead of market as a classic news-driven value that could settle in the RB25 range by August.