Cody Woodman urged drafters to pump the brakes on Jahmyr Gibbs at his current first-round ADP. Woodman highlighted three red flags: (1) All-Pro center Frank Ragnow’s surprise retirement forces Detroit to start a rookie in the middle of an interior already relying on a second-year guard and 35-year-old Graham Glasgow, a stark downgrade from last year’s elite unit that helped Gibbs average 5.2 YPC; (2) Offensive mastermind Ben Johnson, who designed the motion-heavy looks that freed Gibbs for chunk plays and red-zone angles, has departed, and Woodman is skeptical Dan Campbell will maintain the same creative usage; (3) Detroit’s overall offensive efficiency could regress with multiple line shuffles, meaning fewer scoring drives and high-value touches. Woodman still likes Gibbs’ talent but projected a 10–15% dip in both receptions and touchdown equity, making him a volatile bet for teams that need steady elite production in Weeks 15-17.

Explaining his pick at slot four, Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he now ranks Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of Justin Jefferson and every non-Christian McCaffrey running back in Underdog’s Eliminator contest. Pat stressed that running backs are being drafted aggressively in the format—"RBs go quick; they’re ranked up the board"—so passing on an anchor early leaves managers scrambling for sketchy committees later. He noted that McCaffrey’s Eliminator ADP has already climbed to five (from eight overall), which signals the market’s willingness to chase elite RB touches. Because Gibbs offers both reception volume and explosive long-play equity inside Detroit’s dome schedule, Pat believes locking him in at 1.04 creates a structural advantage and frees drafters to hammer wideouts through the next three rounds while the rest of the room fights over declining backs.

Chris Raybon said the Lions’ third-round selection of Arkansas wideout Isaac Teslaw — a receiver praised mostly for his run-blocking — signals that Detroit may lean even harder on the ground game under new OC John Morton. Raybon noted that Teslaw’s blocking chops plus Ben Johnson’s departure make it logical to shift volume toward the backfield. A heavier run rate would funnel extra carries and screens to Jahmyr Gibbs, who already owns the league’s fourth-highest explosive-run rate (12% of totes went 10+ yards). Raybon called Gibbs the primary beneficiary of a "keep it on schedule" offense, projecting a bump from last year’s 14.5 touches per game to 17-18 and reinforcing him as a second-round smash in both best-ball and season-long formats.

When Christian McCaffrey fell to 1.06, Pat Fantasy Dog Pound still said, “I’m probably still going Gibbs there,” emphasizing how quickly running backs fly off the board in the Eliminator. He believes grabbing Gibbs at that spot locks in the weekly floor/ceiling combo required to survive the early multi-team eliminations while leaving enough salary flexibility to chase value pockets later. Paying full freight for CMC, in his view, constrains roster construction at other positions precisely when running backs are already inflated in price compared to wide receivers.

Billy Jones said he is willing to grab Jahmyr Gibbs as early as the 1.07 because he sees a realistic path to overall RB1 production in 2024. Jones acknowledged that Gibbs’ efficiency-driven 20-TD rookie year probably regresses, but argued the slack can be picked up by a bigger workload. David Montgomery turns 28 in June and already saw his snap share dip from 61 % in Weeks 1-9 to 47 % once Gibbs emerged. Jones expects Ben Johnson to flip another 3-4 touches per game Gibbs’ way, putting him in the 275-opportunity range that historically produces top-3 fantasy seasons in half-PPR. Add in Detroit’s league-best 64 % red-zone TD rate and Gibbs’ elite 18 % target-per-route rate, and Jones believes the sophomore back easily beats his late-first ADP in Best Ball Mania rooms.

Andy Holloway urged drafters not to extrapolate Jahmyr Gibbs’ late‑season nuclear stretch into 2025 projections. With David Montgomery healthy, Gibbs averaged only 16.9 opportunities and 16.9 half‑PPR points per game—good but nowhere near the 30‑point explosions he posted during Montgomery’s Weeks 15‑18 absence when touches spiked to 23.3. Holloway expects Detroit’s total touchdowns to regress after leading the league last year, noting Jared Goff’s TD rate jumped from 5 % to almost 7 % and the Lions lost OC Ben Johnson. Even if rushing scores don’t simply replace passing scores, Holloway believes overall team scoring will dip, further limiting Gibbs’ path to top‑3 returns. He still loves the back’s league‑leading EPA per play but slots him closer to RB6‑7 unless the Lions signal a philosophical shift away from Montgomery.

Mike Wright bumped Jahmyr Gibbs all the way to RB2 on his early board, pointing to a league‑best EPA per play that was almost double Barkley’s. Gibbs also ranked #1 in Success Rate among backs with 250‑plus touches and was the only player in the top tier to offer both 70‑target receiving upside and true home‑run speed. Wright acknowledged David Montgomery is still around but argued that Detroit’s offense produced enough high‑value touches to sustain two backs last year. Gibbs’ efficiency profile—69‑target pace, top‑three explosive‑play rate—and his age‑24 breakout window give him both a stable PPR floor and week‑winning upside. Wright advises locking him in as a back‑half Round‑1 pick in redraft and a priority RB anchor in Best‑Ball tournaments.