Tony Farmer said he is fading Jared Goff in 2025 prop markets, noting that Detroit replaced "one of the most creative minds in the NFL" with a clear downgrade at offensive coordinator. Farmer added that the Lions’ offensive line projects worse than last year, further dampening Goff’s efficiency ceiling. With both play-caller and protection trending the wrong way, Farmer prefers unders on Goff’s passing yards and touchdowns.

Matthew Wiley called Jared Goff the most slept-on quarterback in DraftKings best ball rooms. Goff gets pushed down because he lacks rushing juice, yet Wiley pointed out that Detroit still fields one of the league’s nastiest weapon groups—Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery. If the rebuilt offensive line holds up after losing two starters, Goff should again operate from a clean pocket, a situation in which he finished top-five in EPA per play last season. Wiley is perfectly content waiting until the 8-9 turn to stack Goff with one or two of those pass-catchers, freeing early capital for premium running backs and wideouts.

FPTS Staff labeled Jared Goff an overvalue at ADP 91 (QB9) with only a QB20 projection. They emphasized that Goff’s 2024 breakout—career-best 6.9% TD rate, 72.4% completion, 8.6 YPA, and a QB7 fantasy finish—coincided with Ben Johnson’s play-calling. Johnson’s departure to Chicago leaves the offense to John Morton, whose lone stint as an NFL OC (2017 Jets) ranked 24th in points and 28th in yards. Without Johnson in 2021 Goff mustered just 6.6 YPA and a 3.8% TD rate; with Johnson from 2022-24 he averaged 7.9 YPA and 5.5% TDs. Because Goff offers zero rushing floor, the analysts argue he needs another near-perfect efficiency season simply to crack low-end QB1 range, making his current price tag a ceiling bet they are unwilling to make.

Derek Brown warned that Jared Goff’s 2024 QB7 finish hinged on a 6.9% passing touchdown rate—third-best in the league and well above his previous Lions high of 5.0%. Goff offers almost no rushing production, so any regression in that rate would knock him out of the QB1 tier. Brown conceded the real-life efficiency (2nd in yards per attempt, 12th in CPOE, 4th in highly accurate-throw rate per Fantasy Points Data) but still slots Goff as a top-15 fantasy arm rather than a reliable starter. He advises treating Goff as a matchup streamer and pivoting to higher-upside options late in drafts.

Josh Shepardson said Jared Goff’s half-PPR ADP dropped only a quarter of a round in 12-team drafts from July 29-Aug 5, yet he still views Goff as "over-drafted as a strictly pocket quarterback." Because Goff offers no rushing equity and therefore a capped weekly ceiling, Shepardson believes drafters can find comparable passing-only production several rounds later and recommends fading Goff at his current cost in both Season-Long and Best Ball formats.

Geoff Ulrich said Jared Goff is wildly under-drafted in TD-only leagues. Goff is going as QB15 in best ball because he offers no rushing yards, but rushing production is irrelevant when yards do not score. Ulrich reminded readers that Detroit carries a 10.5 Vegas win total and finished top-eight in offensive touchdowns each of the past two seasons. Goff has delivered 30-plus passing TDs in back-to-back campaigns, something earlier ADP options Caleb Williams and Drake Maye have never approached. In a format where every scoring throw is four points and yardage is worthless, Ulrich argued Goff should be treated as a fringe top-5 quarterback and pushed up at least a full round on cheat sheets.

Warno recommended trading Goff before his value craters. Detroit’s play-caller Ben Johnson, credited for Goff’s career resurgence, is gone, and the Lions’ vaunted protection has sprung leaks with center Frank Ragnow retiring and guard Kevin Zeitler leaving in free agency. Warno worries that the loss of play-action efficiency and pocket cleanliness erodes Goff’s middling athletic profile, making now the optimal exit window for dynasty managers.

FPTS Staff dubbed Jared Goff an OVERVALUE at ADP 95 (QB9) versus their QB18 projection. Goff’s 2024 breakout—QB7 overall, 19.8 FPG, and career bests in TD rate (6.9%), completion percentage (72.4%), and YPA (8.6)—coincided with OC Ben Johnson guiding an offense that averaged an NFL-best 29.0 points per game from 2022-24. Johnson is gone to coach the Bears, replaced by John Morton, whose lone NFL coordinating stint (2017 Jets) ranked 24th in scoring and 28th in yardage. The staff noted that in Goff’s last season without Johnson (2021) he managed only 6.6 YPA with a 3.8% TD rate, and because he offers virtually no rushing upside he must maintain elite passing efficiency just to sniff QB1 territory. Expecting that in a downgraded scheme is betting on his absolute ceiling, so the staff advised fading Goff at his current draft cost.

PPRTyler took Jared Goff ahead of Drake Maye specifically to complete a double-Detroit stack he had already started with two Lions pass catchers. He stressed that locking in the quarterback to his Amon-Ra/Jameson (implied) combo captures Week-17 shoot-out equity versus Chicago and leans into the Lions’ 58% pass rate inside the red-zone under Ben Johnson. Tyler sees Goff’s cost as stable, but the correlated ceiling with existing pieces justified any minor reach, calling it a must when you’ve invested in the Lions’ offense early.

Best Ball Guy warned drafters against taking Jared Goff ahead of ADP. He cited two major red flags for 2025: Detroit is "losing linemen" and has lost its offensive coordinator, the same infrastructure that propped Goff up last season. BBG reminded viewers that Goff "looked like absolute dog" early in his career when the surroundings were worse, so assuming the Lions' passing efficiency is now bullet-proof is dangerous. With several comparable quarterbacks available later, BBG believes the downside risk outweighs any ceiling at Goff’s current cost in best-ball drafts.

Goff’s ESPN ADP slid nearly 20 spots to 132.5 (QB12 overall 113.2), and Freedman believes the market may still be too high. He cited three red flags: OC Ben Johnson left in January, Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow retired in June, and Goff offers minimal rushing. Last season’s career highs (72.4 % completion rate, 9.0 AY/A) could be unsustainable; Goff’s first three Detroit campaigns averaged 66.5 % and 7.5 AY/A. While the surrounding skill talent remains elite, Freedman views Goff as a middling QB2 best drafted only as a cheap back-end option, not a locked-in starter.

Fantasy Dog Pound said drafting Jared Goff unstacked at pick 124 in the small-field Husky best-ball contest is perfectly acceptable. He emphasized that the Husky’s 3-of-12 opening advance rate and 117-team final dramatically lower the correlation tax you pay compared to Best Ball Mania’s 1-of-14 gauntlet. Because Goff evenly distributes targets across Detroit’s deep receiver room, the build does not rely on an Amon-Ra St. Brown 40-pointer to work. With a Joe Burrow stack already in place, Goff offered a safer advance-rate profile than reaching 15-plus spots for J.J. McCarthy, making him the better percentage play every time.

Sean Koerner projects the Lions to score 7.5 fewer points per game without Ben Johnson and with more outdoor dates, which slashes Goff’s touchdown expectation. Koerner views Goff as a durability play, not a ceiling play—comparing the situation to Goff’s post-Rams fall to mediocrity. In single-QB leagues he’d rather chase upside elsewhere, reserving Goff for superflex builds where a steady but unspectacular QB2 is acceptable.

Chris Raybon advised passing on Jared Goff at his QB11 ADP, labeling last year’s 4,500-yard, 37-TD explosion a perfect storm. Goff loses OC Ben Johnson and pass-game guru Tanner Engstrom, plus two interior linemen that shielded him from pressure. The dome-friendly passer now faces seven outdoor games against defenses such as Baltimore, Kansas City and Philadelphia after only three outdoor contests last year. With just 56 rushing yards in 2024, Raybon ranks Goff five spots below ADP as a matchup-dependent mid-range QB2 best left for superflex leagues.

Jared Goff slipped nearly 20 spots on ESPN, and Freedman understands why. New OC Ben Johnson left, All-Pro center Frank Ragnow retired, and the veteran QB offers little ground production. Goff’s 2024 career-best efficiency (72.4 % completion, 9.0 AY/A) came with ideal circumstances; Freedman expects a snap back toward his 2021-23 Lions averages (66.5 % completion, 7.5 AY/A). Although Goff still enjoys a top-tier skill cast—Gibbs, Montgomery, St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta—Freedman cautions that the structural changes cap upside and views him as a late QB2 rather than a priority pick.

Jim Coventry reminded drafters that Jared Goff averaged just 19.7 fantasy points with four sub-17 games through Week 9 last season, only becoming a league winner when defensive injuries forced shootouts. With that unit healthy again, Coventry expects Detroit to revert to run-first, low-volume scripts, cutting off the 26-plus point upside we saw six times down the stretch. Add in Ben Johnson’s departure and an interior line weakened by Frank Ragnow’s retirement, and Coventry projects more early-season duds than difference-making spikes—making Goff a risky fantasy QB investment.

Nick Holz warned that Jared Goff is being drafted at his 2024 ceiling (QB10) and is a clear fade for 2025. Goff just logged career-best marks—4,629 yards and 37 TDs—but Holz doubts a repeat with OC Ben Johnson gone to Chicago. Detroit’s interior line took hits as center Frank Ragnow retired and guard Kevin Zeitler left in free agency, a major concern for a pure pocket passer like Goff. A brand-new offensive system, an already banged-up Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee surgery), and the NFL’s third-hardest schedule (based on 2024 win percentage) further cloud the outlook. DraftKings set Goff’s passing-yard prop at 3,900.5 (-110 both ways), almost 750 yards below last year. Holz believes drafters paying QB10 prices are buying a best-case scenario and recommends fading Goff.

James Koh loves Jared Goff in real life but wants nothing to do with him at a top-10 fantasy ADP. Goff’s QB6 finish last year was built on hyper-efficiency: fifth-most passing TDs (38) despite only the 10th-most attempts. Koh expects that efficiency to crater if offensive coordinator Ben Johnson departs, noting Goff offers zero rushing juice and still shows stark home/road splits. If yards-per-attempt and touchdown rate revert even slightly, Koh says managers will be stuck with a mid-QB2 (around QB15-16) who’s unusable in bad weather or on the road—clearly not worth a top-10 price.

Fuller pegged Goff as a negative-regression target after a career year that featured personal bests in TD passes, YPA, and completion percentage. Ben Johnson’s departure to Chicago creates uncertainty around Detroit’s offensive identity, and Fuller notes the Lions already have an elite run game that could hog goal-line touches. Dwain McFarland’s projections cited by Fuller have Goff at 4,200 yards but only 28 TDs, good for QB15 territory because he offers no rushing juice. While his current ADP (mid-QB2 range) bakes in some of that concern, Fuller cautions against expecting a repeat of 2024’s ceiling without Johnson calling plays.

Josh cautioned that Jared Goff’s fantasy stability hangs on a razor’s edge. Goff thrives on under-center play-action shots where he knows the one predetermined throw, but Josh questioned whether he can survive if Detroit’s pressure rate climbs from two or three hits a game to five, seven or ten. Because Goff contributes nothing as a scrambler or on QB sneaks, he must be near-perfect from the pocket to justify a top-10 ranking. Any erosion in protection or offensive structure could expose him. Josh recommended viewing Goff as a matchup-based QB2/streamer rather than banking on him as a weekly starter at his current QB11 draft slot.

Hayden Winks slotted Jared Goff at QB11 but warned fantasy managers the safety net might disappear now that OC Ben Johnson and All-Pro center Frank Ragnow are gone. Winks pushed back on the ‘baby arm’ label—Goff has multiple 60-plus-yard bombs and far-hash lasers on tape—and praised his ever-improving presnap command. Still, he admitted we are about to learn how many of those answers were spoon-fed by Johnson’s play-action script. Josh Norris added that if Goff faces interior pressure five to ten times per game instead of two or three, his efficiency could crater. The duo agreed Goff should be treated as a matchup-based QB2 in season-long formats and paired with a mobile upside passer in best-ball builds rather than relied on as a standalone starter.

Nick Whalen is playing Jared Goff over 3,900.5 passing yards at –110. Goff has averaged more than 4,500 yards over the past three seasons and exceeded this total in six of his eight NFL campaigns. Whalen acknowledged potential offensive regression with Ben Johnson now in Seattle but still sees ample cushion thanks to Detroit’s stacked pass-catcher group—Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jamison Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs. Because Goff has missed only two starts since 2021, Whalen believes betting on 16-plus games is reasonable and that the market is over-adjusting for injury risk.

Drafting Jared Goff naked is perfectly fine in Eliminator, according to PPRTyler. Because early rounds are decided by raw points in a 1-v-1 format, he prioritizes value and weekly ceiling over correlation. Tyler paired Goff with Justin Herbert and later added Tua Tagovailoa, arguing that three high-floor pocket passers give him multiple shots at a 20-25-point week even without their pass-catchers. He reminded viewers they can still "back-stack" later if it falls naturally but insists you don’t have to force a Lions receiver at cost just to justify the quarterback.

Chris Raybon projected Jared Goff to slide from fringe QB1/2 status to a matchup-based streamer now that play-caller Ben Johnson is gone. Replacement OC John Morton will try to replicate the scheme, but Raybon doubts the timing and sequencing will be as sharp. The offensive line lost centerpiece Frank Ragnow, is starting a rookie at guard, and could slip outside the league’s top five. Detroit’s schedule turns brutal: road trips to Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago and Cleveland bring weather or elite pass rushes that historically haunt Goff. Combine a tougher slate, a shakier line, and inevitable offensive regression, and Raybon is fading Goff at any price that still bakes in last year’s efficiency.

NP43 scolded drafters who paired Jared Goff with Kyler Murray in an Eliminator build, calling two Week-8 bye quarterbacks a "big no-no." Because Eliminator advancement is decided by weekly cutlines, he warned that taking two passers who both disappear the same week leaves rosters dangerously thin and risks an automatic elimination. His fix was simple: either avoid overlapping bye weeks at quarterback altogether or commit to adding a third signal-caller—someone like Jackson Dart—so the lineup never posts a zero during the mid-season gauntlet.

NP43 called Jared Goff the “saving grace” of their draft after landing him roughly 15 spots past Underdog’s ADP (around pick 120). Because the room had already secured Jamison Williams earlier, he felt the discounted Goff-Jamo stack gave the roster badly needed correlation without sacrificing closing-line equity. NP43 stressed that you rarely get a clean indoor quarterback tethered to Ben Johnson’s aggressive passing scheme at that price, making Goff a sharp pivot once premium stacks like Geno Smith–DK Metcalf or Tua-Waddle get sniped. The guest said any time Goff drifts a full round, drafters should snap him up as their QB2 and back-fill upside later rather than chasing ADP on weaker arms.

Mike Wright called Jared Goff the "worst pick" in single-QB formats at his current 8.02 ADP. Although Goff is one of only three quarterbacks (with Hurts and Allen) to post top-10 fantasy finishes each of the last three seasons, Wright argued that those totals mask week-to-week inconsistency. He compared Goff to vintage Philip Rivers—good season-long numbers that rarely win a fantasy week. Wright pointed to Detroit's top-five rushing attack, Ben Johnson’s departure, and the loss of All-Pro center Frank Ragnow as factors that could further cap touchdown volume while exposing Goff’s long-standing struggles under pressure. He rattled off a list of late-round alternatives—Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Dak Prescott—available multiple rounds later with higher weekly ceilings. Wright’s bottom line: in Round 8 you either want a true every-week starter or you should still be hammering skill positions; Goff is neither.

Jim Coventry argued that Jared Goff is a trap pick despite last year’s late-season surge (28.6 fantasy PPG over his final seven). Coventry pointed out that the Lions’ defensive collapse—18 defenders lost to injury—forced shootouts. When the unit was healthy in Weeks 1-9, Detroit planned to win with defense and a run game, and Goff averaged just 19.7 fantasy points with four sub-17-point clunkers. Coventry expects much closer to that version in 2025: the young corners now have experience, Aidan Hutchinson is healthy, and the safety room is deep. Offensively, Detroit will pound Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery behind a mauling line, but Goff loses OC Ben Johnson and must operate behind an entirely new interior OL—an issue for a quarterback who struggles versus inside pressure. Coventry therefore recommends steering clear of Goff at his current draft price.

Matthew Wiley called Jared Goff the single most undervalued quarterback in both classic DFS and 2025 Best Ball drafts. Wiley’s case is simple: Goff finished last season as QB8 in total fantasy points and QB11 in points per game despite being drafted outside the top-15 passers. He still pilots an offense that ranked top-6 in yards per play and red-zone trips, yet drafters let him slide ten-plus rounds after rushing quarterbacks with similar weekly ceilings. Wiley argued that even if Detroit regresses a bit, Goff’s 67% completion rate, 3.8% INT rate improvement under OC Ben Johnson, and a receiving corps head-lined by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs provide a safe 18-to-22-point weekly floor with multiple 30-point spike-weeks in a half-PPR Best Ball format. At his current late-11th-round ADP, Wiley is scooping Goff as his QB2 in every build and occasionally as a lone “naked” quarterback when he spends early capital elsewhere.

Davis Mattek warned that Jared Goff is "effectively useless" in Best Ball unless he is paired with at least one of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, or Sam LaPorta. Because Goff offers zero rushing upside—just 21 ground yards all of last season—his spike weeks hinge entirely on multi-TD passing outings, which almost always coincide with blow-up games from his pass-catchers. Mattek cited 2023 splits where Goff averaged 24.1 fantasy points when a Lions receiver topped 80 yards but only 14.8 when none did. Given Detroit’s concentrated target tree and indoor schedule, Mattek says you should either build a two- or three-man Lions stack around Goff or skip him entirely in favor of quarterbacks with rushing floors.

Koerner warned that the Lions offense has "nowhere to go but down" after Ben Johnson’s departure, even though Detroit promoted from within by naming passing-game coordinator John Morton OC. Any drop-off in play design or sequencing could disproportionately hurt Jared Goff, a quarterback Koerner called highly scheme-dependent. While he isn’t slashing Detroit projections yet, Koerner is baking in a modest efficiency downgrade and recommends tempering expectations for Goff in drafts until we see Morton replicate Johnson’s magic.

Pat called Jared Goff at 130 overall “actually insane value,” pointing out that you almost never see him last that long in sharper rooms. The selection immediately completed a high-upside stack with Amon-Ra St. Brown while leaving the door open for cheap Dome-game bring-backs in Weeks 16-17. Pat reminded viewers that Detroit ranked fourth in pass EPA and plays 12 of 17 games indoors, a setup that historically lifts Goff’s YPA by nearly a full yard. Because Goff’s ADP usually sits in the low 110s, Pat views any slip into the 120s as free equity and a simple way to keep a two-QB build viable without sacrificing early-round firepower at other positions.