Matt LaMarca likes Javonte Williams as a contrarian pivot after his 15-carry, 2-TD showing against Philadelphia. With rookie Jaydon Blue inactive and only Miles Sanders behind him, Williams owns the Dallas red-zone job heading into a game where the Cowboys are six-point favorites over a Giants defense that just allowed two rushing scores to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. SimLabs rates Williams as notably undervalued relative to ownership at $5,800 on DK.

Chris Raybon said to smash the under on Javonte Williams’ 525.5-yard rushing prop. Raybon noted that ever since Williams’ 2022 ACL tear he has been a shell of his former self, rattling off 2024 game logs such as 8-for-23, 11-for-17, 5-for-12, and a four-game stretch that totaled 14 carries for a single yard. Williams produced three separate games with one or fewer rushing yards and finished the season with lines like 6-15 and 4-24. Raybon called it a "basement-level floor" and reminded listeners the Cowboys have already cycled through veterans like Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott, a signal the staff is willing to turn the backfield over quickly if Williams sputters again. Add a likely timeshare and there is, in Raybon’s words, “no realistic path” to 500 yards, let alone 525.5.

Sean Koerner bet Javonte Williams under 500.5 rushing yards (Caesars posts 525.5) for 2025. Williams is penciled in as Dallas’ Week 1 starter only because the book offers a line for every nominal RB1; Koerner doubts he holds the job. Miles Sanders and fifth-round rookie Jaden Blue are waiting in the wings, and Koerner believes Blue could pull even on early downs as soon as September. Williams was brutally inefficient in Denver—he logged several 10-plus-carry games under 20 yards and posted three contests with one or fewer rushing yards on 14 carries—despite running behind a top-10 offensive line. The Cowboys’ line is a downgrade, and the club could skew pass-heavy if Micah Parsons’ contract stalemate weakens the defense and forces shootouts. Koerner actually sees Williams’ best path to snaps coming on passing downs, not grinding carries. With a post-ACL track record that suggests replacement-level play and real risk he slides into a committee, Koerner thinks anything above 500 yards is too generous.

Ian Hartitz called Javonte Williams the most mis-priced running back on the board. Dallas never signed or traded for competition, so Williams enters Week 1 as the unquestioned Cowboys RB1, yet his ADP is still outside the top ten rounds because drafters spent the summer panicking about a potential veteran addition. Hartitz argued that locking up the starting backfield in a Dak-led offense after the WR50-55 range is an easy value play and recommended scooping Williams any time he slips into double-digit rounds instead of chasing satellite backs with lower weekly ceilings.

Matthew Wiley said Javonte Williams is “absolute dust,” pointing to two straight seasons of under-performance even while running behind what he called “one of the best offensive lines in football last year.” Wiley added that after repeatedly letting drafters down, Williams now projects as the lead back in Dallas, yet he still does not expect a rebound because the inefficiency came despite elite blocking. Wiley’s takeaway for DraftKings Best Ball drafters is to steer clear at current ADP and allocate salary-cap equity elsewhere.

Matthew Wiley wants no part of Javonte Williams in 2025 drafts, labeling him "absolute dust." Williams produced replacement-level efficiency even while running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines last season. Dallas has since invested in dynamic rookies Jaden Blue and Tre Benson, and Wiley is loading up on both because he expects the coaching staff to phase Williams out quickly. If Williams could not separate behind a road-grader unit in 2024, Wiley sees little chance he holds off younger, faster backs this year. He recommends fading Williams entirely and scooping Blue/Benson in the double-digit rounds.

Fantasy Life Newsletter Staff framed Javonte Williams as the classic upside swing at an ADP of 108. Despite an ACL tear in 2022, Dallas handed him $3 million to operate in what projects as a top-10 offense with virtually no back-field competition. The downside (health risk) is already priced in—he’s going next to clear-cut backups—while the upside is controlling Cowboys goal-line work. If it fails, you cut a ninth-round pick; if it hits, you landed a potential every-week starter at a steep discount.

Discussing Dallas, Wright called the backfield a "disaster" for fantasy. Coaches offered only vague praise—“he’s mature”—when asked about Javonte Williams, failing to cite on-field positives. Conversely, rookie Jaydon Blue has earned steady camp accolades. Wright believes Williams’ role is anything but safe and that proactive managers should add or hold Blue before any official depth-chart shake-up spikes his price.

Erik Beimfohr advised fading Javonte Williams after his move to Dallas, blasting the landing spot as "three yards and a cloud of dust." Beimfohr noted that the Cowboys’ new head coach—a former All-Pro inside linebacker—prefers an old-school, downhill rushing attack behind an offensive line that "sucks," leaving Williams to repeatedly slam into the backs of his own blockers. With little creativity in the scheme and minimal passing-game optimism, Beimfohr expects Williams to be an inefficient, touchdown-dependent option who will not justify his current best-ball ADP.

Adam Dove believes fantasy managers are sleeping on Williams at RB36. Now fully recovered from his knee injury and taking most first-team reps for a high-powered Cowboys offense, Williams could pair 40-plus receptions with a return to his 903-yard rookie rushing form – a potential league-winner for late RB drafters.

Connor Allen endorsed Discord member Jake Lodenberg’s wager on Javonte Williams under 550.5 rushing yards for the season. Allen pointed out that Williams finished 48th out of 52 qualifiers in success rate last year and graded poorly in every advanced rushing metric—yards after contact, missed tackles forced, EPA per rush—"just so bad across the board." With Miles Sanders already sidelined, rookie Jaden Blue dinged, and the Cowboys offensive line no longer elite, Allen expects Dallas to lean on Prescott’s arm rather than a committee headlined by an inefficient Williams. A middle-of-the-pack line plus a likely top-five pass rate leaves Williams staring at sub-9 carries per game, making 551 rushing yards a tall order even if he stays healthy.

In the crew’s sloppy-chart debate, Davis Mattek declared Javonte Williams "the right-wing sloppy option," putting him ahead of Miles Sanders and Alexander Mattison as the poster child for an overpriced narrative-driven pick. Mattek’s label suggests Williams’ current cost is fueled more by wish-casting than by evidence of difference-making production.

Hayden Winks urged managers to fade Javonte Williams at an RB35 ADP, calling the Cowboys backfield a potential five-headed monster. In camp the first-team reps have bounced between Jaden Blue, Miles Sanders and Williams, while the fullback is getting goal-line carries and gadget receiver KaVontae Turpin has scripted runs. The situation is worsened by a banged-up offensive line: the left tackle (already shaky as a rookie) has a knee injury, the right tackle spot is unsettled, and a rookie guard is penciled in to start. Winks projected that with so many mouths to feed and a shaky line, no Dallas runner will see stable early-down or goal-line work, leaving Williams to fight for snaps on passing downs—an area where post-injury he offers only pass protection, not explosive plays. Winks would rather take the cheaper stab on Blue at RB51 and is largely crossing the entire Dallas backfield off his Season-Long draft board.

Camp reports rave about rookie Jaydon Blue; Miles Sanders owns the unit’s most recent 1,000-yard season, yet Williams is being drafted first at RB36, 105.1 ADP. Kelley argues drafters are assuming a lead role Mike McCarthy has not promised, making Williams a reach.

Conor Allen hammered Javonte Williams under 499.5 rushing yards (Underdog lists 575.5, which he likes even more). Dallas beat writers say rookie Jaden Blue is ‘everywhere’ in camp, and early reports claimed Miles Sanders looked better than Williams. Allen thinks Williams could be third on the depth chart by Thanksgiving, making even a full, healthy season unlikely to reach 500 yards. He added the play to an Underdog entry that now pays 324-to-1.

Best Ball Guy pushed back on Pat Kerrane during previous drafts, saying, "are you telling me Javonte at 150 we’re not taking him?" He views Williams’ ADP in the 150s as a clear buy, insisting the cost already bakes in injury concerns and represents one of the better upside bets in that range.

Best Ball Guy jumped on Javonte Williams 30 spots after his usual ADP, explaining that price, not allegiance, drives his exposure. With Miles Sanders still dominating drafts and the Dallas depth chart unsettled, he views Williams as a classic asymmetric bet: if Sanders stumbles or gets hurt, Williams’ path to lead-back touches widens and the discount closes instantly. Even if the room stays messy, the 30-pick slide already bakes in most of the risk.

Best Ball Guy happily grabbed Javonte Williams at pick 163—33 spots after his ADP—because Dallas still hasn’t named a starting running back. Although Williams ‘looked bad last year,’ the tout stressed that early-season goose eggs don’t matter much in BBM where all the money is in Week 17. Pairing Williams with Dak Prescott gives the roster a high-upside Dallas stack if the former Bronco seizes lead-back duties down the stretch. At that price, he views Williams as a pure upside swing that costs little capital in a tournament where ceiling trumps floor.

Steve Palazzolo called Javonte Williams an intriguing late-round stash in season-long and best-ball drafts. Dallas signed Williams for only $3 million, virtually guaranteeing him an opportunity to seize lead-back duties. Although Palazzolo conceded that Williams has not looked like the explosive tackle-breaker he was several seasons ago, he stressed that the runner is now multiple years removed from his knee injury and therefore has a plausible path to rediscovering his burst. If that happens, the current backfield pecking order—headlined by the low-ceiling Miles Sanders—could flip quickly. At Williams’ depressed ADP you are essentially paying for his floor while retaining the upside that once had him near the top of the yards-after-contact leaderboard.

Sam Monson warned managers to stay away from the Cowboys’ running backs. He argued the unit now relies on a post-injury Javonte Williams—“not the same player he was a couple years ago”—and Miles Sanders, whom he labeled a low-impact, 3.8-yards-per-carry grinder. Monson’s bigger concern is structural: left tackle Tyler Guyton graded just 49.0 at PFF last season and is already missing most of camp, while rookie Tyler Booker must replace future Hall-of-Famer Zack Martin at right guard. With two unproven starters and the once-elite line “a tick below where it was,” Monson expects inconsistent run blocking and believes Dallas will struggle to generate efficient rushing production unless every lineman unexpectedly blossoms. He advised fading the backfield in season-long drafts and treating it as a weekly DFS fade until the line shows real improvement.

Mike Wright reminded listeners that despite Dallas drafting competition, Javonte Williams still profiles as the incumbent starter and is going outside the top-30 backs. Dallas ranks top-five in plays per game, seventh in red-zone snaps, and fifth in points per game whenever Dak Prescott is under center over the past two seasons. Wright noted that coaches value Williams’ pass-protection, a skill that historically keeps backs on the field in Mike McCarthy’s system. If the Cowboys remain a top-half scoring unit, Williams’ every-down snaps could make him a weekly RB2 who costs merely bench capital on draft day.

Warren Sharp said the Dallas rushing attack is a fantasy landmine and should be ignored in drafts and DFS. With Dak Prescott healthy through Week 9 last season the Cowboys ranked 30th in yards-per-carry and 31st in explosive-run rate, logging zero runs over 15 yards. The front five was equally bad, finishing 26th in yards before contact and 28th in both holding and false-start penalties, then losing future Hall-of-Famer Zach Martin to retirement. The 2025 depth chart—Javonte Williams (graded as one of the league’s worst backs last year), Miles Sanders (chronic durability issues), and rookie Jaden Blue (explosive but fumble-prone)—offers no obvious savior. Until either the line gels or a back clearly separates, Sharp advised fading every Cowboys running back in season-long leagues and steering clear in DFS cash games or GPPs.

James Koh warned that Javonte Williams is an avoid-at-cost candidate if he ends up starting for Dallas. Koh pointed out that Williams’ explosiveness has not returned after back-to-back knee injuries, noting a paltry 3.7 yards per carry in Denver last season while every other Broncos back was at 4.1 YPC or better. Because Brian Schottenheimer’s Cowboys ran zone on the seventh-highest rate in 2023, Koh stressed that any starter must be efficient on zone concepts—something Williams struggled with post-injury. Koh concluded that fantasy drafters should fade Williams at his current ADP until he proves he can regain burst and outperform replacement-level talent in a top-12 offense.

Eisenberg expects Javonte Williams to "get the first opportunity" in Dallas’ crowded backfield that also includes Miles Sanders and rookies Jaden Blue and Phil Mafah. Williams flashed as a Denver rookie before his ACL tear and rebounded last season with 50+ receptions under Sean Payton. If he retains that receiving role and shows a bit of his pre-injury burst, Eisenberg sees Round-7/8 price tags as a steal. He advises a cautiously optimistic stance—do not reach—but Williams is the veteran he most wants to leave drafts with from this ambiguous committee.

Mike Wright admitted he has been skipping Javonte Williams in drafts but reversed course after realizing no Dallas backup or rookie runner is getting any camp buzz. Wright projected Williams to reprise last year’s workload—roughly 18 touches per game—as the unquestioned lead back. While Dallas’ offensive line finished 25th and still grades bottom-third, Wright stressed that raw volume at an RB29 price tag outweighs efficiency concerns. He envisions a steady RB2 floor with upside for spike weeks if Dak Prescott keeps the offense near the red zone, making Williams an ideal late-round contingency play in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Best Ball Guy remained "pretty pro" on Javonte Williams, arguing that an ADP around pick 150 is wrong for someone he currently projects as the Cowboys’ Week 1 starter. He pointed out that last year’s market routinely paid a sixth-round premium for whoever handled Dallas goal-line work, yet drafters are letting Williams slide into the 13th round despite no meaningful competition and what he still considers a top-tier offensive line. Even acknowledging Zack Martin’s retirement chatter, the tout thinks the unit’s remaining tackle play plus Mike McCarthy’s red-zone run tendency should lock Williams into double-digit touchdown equity. In his words, “your name could be Tyler Knable and I’m still taking you at 150 if you’re the starting running back on the Cowboys,” so grabbing a proven three-down back at that price “hasn’t fallen far enough.”

Kev Coleman endorsed buying Javonte Williams while his dynasty cost sits in the RB42-46 range (late-2nd or even two 3rds in recent deals). Coleman noted that new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer historically feeds a lead back about 13 PPR points per game—good for a low-end RB2 finish that would immediately double Williams’ current market value. The Dallas depth chart is soft: Miles Sanders is fading, rookie Jaden Blue struggles with fumbling and is strictly a passing-down option, leaving Williams the clear favorite for early-down and goal-line work. Coleman put Williams’ chances of beating out that competition at 90 % if healthy. Early-season workloads of 15 touches would spike his trade value by Week 3-4, allowing managers to flip him or ride a cheap RB2 for the season. With Dallas expected to run more under Schottenheimer and offensive improvements pushing the unit toward a top-10 finish, volume plus touchdown equity makes Williams a low-risk, high-reward dynasty dart worth the price of admission.

Best Ball Guy grabbed Javonte Williams at pick 142 and called the price "pretty sick" for any back who might lead the Dallas backfield. He acknowledged Williams has been disappointing since the ACL injury but emphasized that, in fantasy, "it’s about who gets the ball, not who’s the best." Dallas offers a top-10 offensive line and a vacated 305 touches after Tony Pollard’s departure. If the Cowboys hand Williams the early-down job, Eric thinks pick-140 territory will look laughable in hindsight, giving drafters an easy way to balance zero-RB builds with a potential volume hog.

Ciely said if you are taking one shot on a Cowboys running back it should be Javonte Williams, now two years removed from his ACL tear and practically free in drafts. Pre-injury Williams flashed top-15 overall talent and averaged 2.9 yards after contact per attempt, a mark only Nick Chubb matched that season. Dallas gave him a prove-it deal but left only complementary pieces (Miles Sanders, rookie Jaden Blue) behind him. Ciely sees a plausible path to Williams reclaiming 60% of the backfield by mid-season in an offense that ranked 4th in red-zone rush rate under new OC Kliff Kingsbury at USC. Given a Round-11 cost, Ciely is willing to bet on talent and enjoys the arbitrage over more expensive uncertain committees like Houston or New England.

Emory Hunt called Javonte Williams a bust candidate for the Cowboys. Williams’ explosiveness never returned after his knee injury, evidenced by back-to-back seasons of 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry. Hunt doubts that version of Williams can elevate Dallas’ 27th-ranked rushing attack, especially with younger, faster backs on the roster pushing for touches. He projects a committee role and views Williams as an avoid at current season-long ADP.

Wyatt Bertolone advised fading Javonte Williams at RB38, 120.8 overall. Since returning from his knee injury, Williams has failed to top 3.7 yards per carry and finished 54th and 59th in True Yards Per Carry, scraping together 9.3 and 11.2 PPR PPG only through sheer volume. Dallas invested just one year and $3 million in him, then added Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue—real threats to eat into touches if Williams continues to plod. Bertolone cautioned that blindly betting on volume for an inefficient back is dangerous and sees little chance the market makes you regret a full fade.

Davis Mattek said Mike Clay’s 2025 projection for Javonte Williams is wildly optimistic. Clay currently pencils Williams in for roughly 1,000 total yards and a meaningful target share, but Mattek would "cut Javonte’s numbers in half" after watching the post-ACL version of the back average just 2.4 yards after contact and earn only 70 targets while doing nothing with them last season. Mattek believes Dallas will use a three-man split and could even trade for another back in camp, leaving Williams as a between-the-20s grinder with almost no receiving or goal-line edge. At a 10th-round price tag that bakes in Clay’s rosy forecast, Mattek advises fading Williams entirely.

Mattek called Javante Williams an easy pass at his 10th-round cost. Post-ACL/MCL tear Williams owns a 2.4 yards-after-contact average (down from 3.4 as a rookie), a 2.9% explosive run rate, and was stuffed on 50% of short-yardage carries in 2024. He failed to record a single 100-yard game and scored in only four contests. Despite those alarming metrics, Dallas guaranteed him just $1M on a $3M deal, less than Elijah Mitchell money. Mattek concluded the Cowboys are offering him no contractual commitment and the peripherals show a back who has lost his difference-making ability, making the current ADP "kind of insane."

Jason Moore moved Javonte Williams up his rankings after Cowboys OTA reports showed Williams taking the lion’s share of first-team reps. Moore argued that Dallas offers an ideal set-up: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and a top-10 scoring offense create abundant red-zone trips, and the backfield competition is underwhelming—Miles Sanders hasn’t been efficient for two seasons and rookie Jaden Blue is unproven. If Williams, now two years removed from knee surgery, secures even 60% of early-down work plus the passing-game role that made Rico Dowdle fantasy-relevant late last year, he could flirt with 275 touches. At his current double-digit-round ADP, Moore recommends scooping multiple best-ball and redraft shares before camp hype drives the price up.

Pete Overzet said he is finally willing to click Javonte Williams when the Denver back slides a few spots past current Best Ball Mania ADP. Overzet expects what he called a “flippening” in the coming weeks: rookie Jaden Blue’s price is already rocket-shipping (up to pick 131) and should jump Williams entirely as drafters keep looking for any excuse to fade the veteran. When that happens, Williams will likely be 10–20 picks cheaper than he is right now. Overzet wants to front-run that shift, arguing that even a committee-plagued Denver backfield can still offer spike-week touchdowns if the offense improves, and a sliding price eliminates most of the downside. His actionable takeaway: grab Williams now before Blue leap-frogs him and the discount disappears.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he is hammering Javonte Williams any time the new Cowboys starter is available in the mid-130s. OC Brian Schottenheimer recently called Williams’ short-area quickness and pass-pro chops “exactly what this offense needs,” and Dallas passed on adding meaningful veteran competition—leaving only rookie Jaden Blue and depth bodies behind him. Pat believes the market is overreacting to last year’s underwhelming stint in Denver and to vague concerns that Dallas might still bring in a name. He expects Williams’ ADP to climb at least a full round once beat writers confirm he is handling the majority of first-team reps in camp, giving current drafters easy closing-line equity.

Mike Wright called Javonte Williams the "real big winner" of Dallas’ draft weekend. The Cowboys ignored running back until Round 5 (Jaden Blue, 5-9 196, 4.38 forty) and settled for Miles Sanders as veteran depth, effectively handing Williams first crack at the old Tony Pollard workload. Wright noted that Dallas passed on every Day-2 bell-cow candidate despite 11 total picks, signaling confidence in Williams’ repaired knee and three-down skill set. He expects Williams to control early-down and goal-line snaps, projecting 250–270 touches if he simply holds last year’s 61 percent Broncos carry share. With the Cowboys returning four starting linemen and adding first-round mauler Tyler Booker to “stop Jalen Carter,” Wright is drafting Williams as an upside RB2 in season-long and a priority sixth-round best-ball pick before summer hype pushes him into the fourth.

Coakley acknowledged Javonte Williams ‘could be dust,’ but still liked him in Round 12 because Denver did nothing meaningful to upgrade the backfield. That makes Williams the favorite to open 2025 as the lead runner, and in a cumulative contest drafters need bankable early-season touches while rookies get up to speed. Even if Williams loses the job later, the front-loaded volume could post several startable scores at a rock-bottom price.

Erik Beimfohr floated the Cowboys as the most logical landing spot for free-agent Javonte Williams and said he is firing late shares now before insiders inevitably connect those dots. While conceding Williams looked "cooked" coming off his knee reconstruction, Beimfohr argued that even 85 percent of peak Javonte behind Dallas’ top-10 offensive line would be fantasy gold. He noted that Mike McCarthy funneled 75 percent of RB touches to Tony Pollard last year and compared Williams’ potential role to 2023 Rico Dowdle, who provided multiple startable weeks despite far less talent. Because there is currently no meaningful competition on the Cowboys depth chart, Williams would step into immediate early-down and goal-line work if signed. The negative Twitter buzz around his 2024 efficiency keeps the price low, making him a classic asymmetric bet: limited risk if the Cowboys pass, league-winning upside if they bite.