If Garrett Wilson is gone, Coventry pivoted to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, stating the second-year Seahawk “could see up to 160 targets” if everything breaks right. That level of volume would make him a draft-winning pick in the late third.

Matt Harmon called Sam Darnold an "imperfect" quarterback and remains skeptical about what Darnold will look like outside Kevin O’Connell’s cushy Vikings scheme, especially in Seattle’s bad-weather games. Even so, Harmon highlighted that Darnold’s 2023 heat map showed he excelled attacking deeper middle-of-field routes—exactly where Jaxon Smith-Njigba wins. With Cooper Kupp’s health a growing question and DK Metcalf in a contract year, Harmon believes JSN is the one reliable pass-catcher Seattle can funnel volume to. Reception Perception charted him as a better man-coverage beater than the public realizes. Harmon projects a jump to 22-25% target share and sees JSN as a priority Round-7 pick in best ball, labeling him "rain-proof PPR glue" even if Darnold is only average.

Jason Moore said he rarely drafts Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his 2.11 ADP (WR12) because the surrounding ecosystem screams regression. Moore expects Seattle to "slow it down" under defensive-minded Mike Macdonald and hide Sam Darnold behind a run-heavy Clint Kubiak scheme, throttling passing volume. JSN and Cooper Kupp both thrive from the slot (80% and 65% historical slot rates), creating overlap that could cap targets for each. Moore prefers Tee Higgins or RBs like Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor in that range and noted that year-two breakouts often get "steamed up too much" the following summer, pointing to historical WR2-to-WR1 ADP traps. Until the offensive line and quarterback situation stabilize, Moore views JSN as an avoid at cost in season-long and best-ball drafts.

For drafters who miss on Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams, Coventry suggested pivoting to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, projecting that the second-year slot technician could "flirt with 160 targets" in 2025. He sees the Seahawks shifting even more volume inside after moving on from veteran perimeter options, giving JSN one of the safest reception floors in the entire draft at his ADP.

Erickson is targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his present ADP, grabbing him in the Scott Fish Bowl and arguing Seattle is a bad team that will pepper one receiver. He believes JSN has already emerged as the clubhouse leader and that Cooper Kupp’s arrival does not disrupt that hierarchy. Because managers aren’t forced to pay a top-24 price, Erickson sees Smith-Njigba as an easy season-long buy.

Erik Beimfohr warned that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s sophomore breakout odds are being overrated because Seattle’s entire offensive ecosystem could crater. He called the Seahawks his 2024 "house-of-cards" unit: Sam Darnold behind a bad offensive line, Cooper Kupp mis-cast as the aging WR2, and zero contingency plan if Darnold starts seeing ghosts again. Beimfohr argued that in a week-five scenario where Seattle is winless, drafters will refuse to start JSN—even in a plus matchup versus Atlanta—because the passing game will be radioactive. With the offensive floor "easily worst in the league," he is trimming JSN exposure, preferring receivers in the same tier tied to steadier quarterback play and line play. Actionable takeaway: stay underweight JSN in best-ball drafts until Seattle shows a functional Plan B at quarterback.

Ian Hartitz pushed back on the JSN hype, slotting him at the bottom of the WR15-WR20 tier. Hartitz argued that Klint Kubiak’s two-week hot streak with the Saints came against defenses that finished 31st and 32nd in scoring, so extrapolating that sample is dangerous. He also thinks the Seahawks’ offensive line is far weaker than Kubiak’s 2023 Saints unit, especially up the middle—bad news for Sam Darnold, who imploded once interior pressure hit in Minnesota. Hartitz worries JSN’s skill set overlaps with Cooper Kupp, meaning neither player may see the classic slot-funnel volume if clear-out routes fail to develop. In his view, a downgrade from Geno Smith to Darnold plus questionable protection leaves JSN’s realistic ceiling at low-end WR2, making him overpriced at a top-10 tag.

Jake Ciely vaulted Jaxon Smith-Njigba to WR10 after studying new OC Klint Kubiak’s tape. Ciely explained that Kubiak’s Yankee-style concepts consistently create two-level route trees—one deep clear-out and one intermediate crosser—putting JSN in the Cooper Kupp role where 130+ targets are realistic. Seattle has already hinted at moving JSN outside more often, which should boost his average depth of target beyond last year’s gadget-heavy rookie deployment. Ciely is comfortable betting on Sam Darnold as a volume generator, comparing the setup to Jameis Winston’s fantasy-friendly chaos years: turnovers may pile up, but so will pass attempts. With 130 receptions and a mid-teen aDOT in his projections, Ciely believes JSN can finish inside the overall WR1 conversation if Darnold merely holds the job all season.

Ben Gretch argued drafters should pass on Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his late-third/early-fourth ADP because Seattle’s new offensive direction caps passing volume. Clint Kubiak arrives from the Saints with a mandate to run, and the Seahawks have publicly stated they fired Ryan Grubb for not calling enough rushing plays. They even drafted Jalen Milroe specifically for Lamar-style package runs, a design choice that further suppresses pass attempts. Gretch’s early projections show a "pretty decent" run rate that leaves DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and tight-end usage fighting for a shrinking pie before JSN sees any target bump. The sophomore’s talent is not in question, but his price assumes a volume leap that the scheme simply will not provide unless game scripts flip negative. Gretch labeled the current cost a structural mistake in both Season-Long and Best-Ball formats and prefers to skip the tier entirely or reach for other positions.

Shawn Siegele said the wide-receiver bucket currently priced between WR14 (Garrett Wilson) and WR22 (DJ Moore) is almost entirely undraftable when run through a basic RotoViz Screener projection. Median and ceiling outcomes in that range simply do not justify third-round capital, wiping out the structural edge of receiver-heavy or Zero-RB builds. The lone exception he’s willing to click is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose Year-2 breakout profile still offers a realistic path to a sizable target-share jump and difference-making upside. If your draft lands in this dead zone, Siegele advises either pulling preferred players forward from later rounds or selecting Smith-Njigba, rather than wasting the pick on a receiver whose projection cannot move the needle.

Ulrich argued that Jaxon Smith-Njigba can vault from current WR19 ADP into top-five territory. He reminded drafters that JSN was 12th in targets and WR9 in PPR last year, yet the market is applying regression despite both Tyler Lockett (74 targets) and DK Metcalf (104) leaving Seattle. Veterans Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling pose minimal threat, and new OC Klint Kubiak just engineered career seasons for Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins. Ulrich expects a condensed passing game with Seattle projecting as a middling team forced into pass-rate spikes, making JSN the focal point.

Despite quarterback volatility in Seattle, Leone is willing to draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his elevated cost. He called JSN a "very good prospect" who checks every year-two breakout box—strong collegiate profile, 76% rookie-year route participation after Week 10, and a slot role that should command a high target rate in Kellen Moore’s uptempo scheme. Leone is comfortable ignoring the QB uncertainty because wide receivers usually capture value through volume, not efficiency, and he believes JSN can post a 22-24% target share regardless of who is throwing the passes.

Chris Raybon predicted Jaxon Smith-Njigba could push for an Amon-Ra St. Brown level target share and flirt with 150 receptions in Shane Waldron’s quick-hitting scheme. With Cooper Kupp showing dramatic efficiency decline and rookie Tori Horton expected to run clear-out routes early, Raybon believes JSN will dominate middle-of-the-field looks from day one. He called Sam Darnold and eventual rookie Jalen Milroe "check-down artists by necessity," a perfect match for Smith-Njigba’s elite short-area separation. Raybon has JSN well above consensus in his preseason ranks, slotting him as a high-floor WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside in full-PPR Season-long leagues and a cornerstone piece of Seattle stacks in Best Ball tournaments.

Mike Leone said JSN is his favorite pick of the overloaded third-round receiver tier—provided Sam Darnold holds the Seattle job all season. JSN sits at the very top of ETR’s board in the early-30s range, yet Leone admits he occasionally passes because he worries the Seahawks could bench Darnold for rookie Jalen Milroe down the stretch, which would hammer passing volume. If Darnold starts 17 games, though, Leone believes Smith-Njigba’s target-earning profile makes him a smash: Seattle quietly fed him 20.2 % of first-read looks over the final six weeks of 2023, and his slot-heavy route tree dovetails with Darnold’s preference for quick, over-the-middle throws. Leone’s calculus is simple—at ADP you’re betting on quarterback stability; if you think Darnold lasts, JSN offers the cleanest WR3 ceiling in the round.

Jim Coventry called Jaxon Smith-Njigba an unjustified faller after his ADP slipped from WR12 to WR14 and projected he could see roughly 160 targets this season. Coventry cited Smith-Njigba’s 100-catch, 1,130-yard breakout while sharing looks with DK Metcalf and a fading Tyler Lockett, adding that Seattle lacks a credible No. 3 option. He argued Smith-Njigba will be the receiver Sam Darnold leans on, with heavy usage over the middle and continued slot work even when Cooper Kupp rotates inside. Given that expected volume, Coventry believes the sophomore is being undervalued.

Hayden Winks admitted he can’t justify drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba ahead of Xavier Worthy in Underdog half-PPR. Seattle projects as one of the most run-centric teams in the league with Sam Darnold at QB, and Darnold historically ignores underneath routes—the exact zone where JSN lives. Worthy, by contrast, brings field-stretching splash plays that score better in this format and will catch passes from Patrick Mahomes. Winks is fading JSN at his Round-5/6 price tag and scooping Worthy or other high-variance receivers instead.

Best Ball Guy said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is mispriced at the 4/5 turn and should be drafted ahead of Mike Evans, DJ Moore, and even teammate DK Metcalf. His case: (1) Seattle’s target tree is surprisingly thin—JSN is "the only guy there" after a quiet but encouraging sophomore breakout; (2) every NFC West defense outside San Francisco graded bottom-half in 2023, giving him a soft divisional schedule; and (3) Sam Darnold is competent enough that the offense "won’t suck," maybe even out-producing Bryce Young on a per-game yardage basis, which mitigates concerns about Geno Smith’s decline. Add in typical year-three breakout data for first-round receivers, and Best Ball Guy views JSN as one of the cleanest closing-line bets in BBM6.

Tyler Knaeble pitched Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a premier third-year breakout target, noting several situational tailwinds. First, new OC Clint Kubiak is expected to implement a more vertical attack, a perfect match for JSN’s route-running and downfield separation skills. Second, DK Metcalf’s lingering lower-body issues could open up an alpha target share if the veteran misses time or plays limited snaps. Knaeble also suggested that Cooper Kupp’s age-related decline further narrows the group of receivers with true league-winning upside in JSN’s ADP neighborhood. Because casual drafters have not yet updated their priors, he believes JSN’s price will rise sharply once preseason clips of the Seahawks’ aggressive passing concepts hit social media and Metcalf’s health is re-evaluated. Knaeble urged best-ball drafters to load up now while the discount exists.

Jason Moore called Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s late-second ADP (2.11, WR12) "too hot to handle." Moore cited Mike Wright’s research showing only 8 of 19 sophomore breakout receivers met or beat lofty Year-3 ADP, with just two becoming league winners. JSN already jumped to WR10 last season on a torrid second-half pace, so drafters are paying for near-perfect progression. Moore prefers scooping Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson or DK Metcalf a round later and argues that whiffing on a second-round pick with just a 42 % hit rate is catastrophic. Unless JSN falls into Round 3, Moore is out.

Emory Hunt likes the OVER on both JSN props—925.5 receiving yards and 5.5 touchdowns—because elite route runners earn volume regardless of scheme. He compared Smith-Njigba to Cooper Kupp, calling him savvy enough to manipulate coverage and create separation. Hunt believes Seattle’s staff will emphasize ‘players, not plays,’ ensuring their best weapon commands targets even in a run-centric attack. Given JSN’s 1,100-yard rookie season and anticipated growth, Hunt expects him to clear both numbers despite the quarterback change to Sam Darnold.

Alex Selznick advised staying away from JSN’s 925.5-yard and 5.5-TD props until more information surfaces. He loves the player but worries about context: Sam Darnold’s arrival means reduced passing volume; DK Metcalf’s absence forces Smith-Njigba to play outside more often instead of his collegiate slot comfort zone; and the chemistry between Darnold and JSN is a complete unknown—Darnold could lean on veteran Cooper Kupp. Selznick said the numbers look beatable but prefers to watch preseason usage and route distribution before committing bankroll.

Nez argued that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is mis-priced in both the prop market and Best Ball drafts after Underdog posted a 975-yard receiving line and a 6.5 TD line. The rookie’s yardage number is only 50 yards higher than Jauan Jennings’ 925 line even though JSN costs four full rounds more in ADP. Nez said that tiny projection gap signals the books expect Seattle to spread targets rather than funnel them to the second-year wideout, making the 975 mark feel like a ceiling rather than a median. He is hammering the lower in season-long Pick’Em cards and fading JSN at his current draft slot, preferring Jennings as the arbitrage play.

Ian Hartitz said he cannot justify paying a top-16 price tag for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Hartitz expects a noticeable drop in target quality with Sam Darnold replacing Geno Smith, noting Darnold has been "good for maybe three or four games a year" throughout his career. He also flagged role redundancy with newcomer Cooper Kupp, arguing that both receivers operate in the same short-area slot space and will cannibalize each other. After re-watching every JSN catch, Hartitz came away more impressed by Geno’s ball placement than JSN’s individual creation, so any quarterback downgrade hits doubly hard. In full-PPR formats he concedes a safe floor via screen-game volume, but at WR15 cost he prefers cheaper alphas such as DK Metcalf or DeVonta Smith who do not need perfect deployment to pay off.

Greg Brainos said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of his favorite mid-round picks because Seattle is shifting to heavier 21 and 12 personnel under new OC Clint Kubiak. That will cut three-WR sets roughly in half (he quoted 50% two-WR sets, mirroring what Kubiak did in New Orleans last season), concentrating targets between DK Metcalf and JSN. Brainos added that Geno Smith remains a far better quarterback than Sam Darnold—"you can win a Super Bowl with Geno"—so the passing efficiency should hold. Calling JSN "much, much better than Cooper Kupp when the Rams let him walk," Brainos expects slot+Z usage plus an aDOT bump and thinks his ADP will rise once beat writers confirm the new formation split.

Greg Brainos said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of his favorite mid-round picks because Seattle is shifting to heavier 21 and 12 personnel under new OC Clint Kubiak. That will cut three-WR sets roughly in half (he quoted 50% two-WR sets, mirroring what Kubiak did in New Orleans last season), concentrating targets between DK Metcalf and JSN. Brainos added that Geno Smith remains a far better quarterback than Sam Darnold—"you can win a Super Bowl with Geno"—so the passing efficiency should hold. Calling JSN "much, much better than Cooper Kupp when the Rams let him walk," Brainos expects slot+Z usage plus an aDOT bump and thinks his ADP will rise once beat writers confirm the new formation split.

Conner Allen predicted Jaxon Smith-Njigba could post top-five fantasy WR numbers in 2025 now that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are gone and an aging Cooper Kupp is miscast outside. Allen expects Seattle to feature JSN in the slot and movable-chess-piece roles, projecting a 27-30 % target share on route participation near 100 %. He noted JSN’s 2.29 yards per route run as a rookie already beat the league average by 42 % and that new OC Ryan Grubb’s uptempo, RPO-heavy scheme produced a 64 % slot-target rate at Washington. With little competition for underneath volume and a defense likely to force shoot-outs, Allen sees a path to 115 receptions and 1,350 yards—numbers that would vault the sophomore into must-draft territory across all season-long and best-ball formats.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound jumped on Jaxon Smith-Njigba at pick 33 after noticing the sophomore wide-out has quietly slipped a handful of spots in Underdog drafts over the past week. Pat pointed out that grabbing JSN at the back of Round 3 not only locks in closing-line value but also opens up a rare Week 17 Panthers-Seahawks correlation that almost no one else will have at that price range. Because he previously had zero "Nabers + JSN" pairings in his portfolio, Pat views this discounted selection as a two-fold edge: unique roster construction plus exposure to an explosive Seattle passing attack that finished top-10 in yards per attempt last season. He encouraged drafters to pounce on the slide before summer news cycles push JSN back into the mid-20s.

Jason Moore said drafters should treat Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a legitimate breakout candidate with weekly WR1 upside. Moore pointed to the very real possibility that both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are dealt away, vacating 45.7% of Seattle’s 2024 targets and every deep shot in the playbook. He reminded listeners that JSN closed last season on a tear—top-20 in yards per route over the final six weeks—after operating almost exclusively from the slot early on. Moore believes the former first-round pick will inherit the alpha role he was drafted for and climb inside the top-10 at the position thanks to a projected 140-plus targets. While he acknowledged the risk of a new coordinator and the Sam Darnold/Jalen Milroe quarterback combo, Moore thinks the sheer volume compensates for any efficiency dip. He recommended scooping Smith-Njigba in the late third or early fourth round of season-long drafts before the market adjusts to the looming target windfall.

Mike Wright flagged Jaxon Smith-Njigba as one of 2025’s biggest ADP traps. Wright reviewed every wide receiver drafted since 2014 and found 19 players who cracked the top-24 for the first time in their second season. The following year, 9 of those 19 failed to hit their expected fantasy points based on ADP, and 8 were ‘big misses’ that finished at least two PPR points per game below the slot. Only two smashed expectations. Smith-Njigba currently carries a WR15 price tag despite legitimate red flags: a brand-new offensive coordinator pledging a run-first approach, an unproven quarterback switch to Sam Darnold, and potential roster movement around DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett that could alter target distribution. Wright added that JSN’s rookie-year scoring surge was touchdown-driven—weeks 1-8 produced one score on eight targets per game versus five touchdowns on nine targets per game from weeks 9-16—another stat he expects to normalize. He advised passing on Smith-Njigba in the top four rounds and targeting steadier veterans in that range.

Michael Leone called Jaxon Smith-Njigba a classic sophomore eruption candidate who is mis-priced at the 2/3 turn. He expects Seattle to lean on heavier two-receiver personnel under new OC Ryan Grubb, which will spike JSN’s route share without asking the team to abandon its run-first DNA. Leone noted that even in last year’s cramped three-wide rotation, Smith-Njigba still managed a 20% targets-per-route clip and flashed an 11-target, 96-yard overtime game against the Rams. With the coaching staff publicly hinting at more slot-perimeter flexibility and DK Metcalf battling a lingering shoulder issue, Leone projects a jump from 77 to roughly 115 targets and believes the former Buckeye’s elite short-area quickness will translate into top-15 yards-after-catch numbers. He views the mid-third ADP slide – down five to six picks since April – as an overreaction to perceived Seahawks implosion risk and is happily clicking JSN as his first wideout after an RB-RB start.

Mike Renner warned that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s sophomore jump now looks unlikely after Seattle dealt its only true field-stretcher, D.K. Metcalf. Renner argued JSN benefited in 2024 from defenses rolling coverage toward Metcalf’s 4.33 speed, allowing him to feast underneath. The retooled receiving corps now features 32-year-old Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling—"no one’s scared of him at this point," Renner said—meaning secondaries can squat on short and intermediate routes. Without a vertical threat to open throwing lanes, Renner expects Seattle’s average depth of target to plummet and projects JSN’s yards per route run to fall below last year’s 1.72 mark. He suggested downgrading JSN to a WR4 in season-long leagues and avoiding him in DFS unless his salary drops into the mid-$4K range.

Mike Wright pumped the brakes on the JSN hype, slotting him at WR16 and likening his profile to Diontae Johnson rather than Ja’Marr Chase. Wright’s main worry is that new head coach Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb want to lean on a run‑first approach, siphoning high‑value targets. He is also skeptical that Sam Darnold’s strong Vikings cameo will translate behind a Seattle offensive line that collapsed on Geno Smith last year—pointing out that Darnold historically melts down and "sees ghosts" when pressured. If the pocket disintegrates, Wright expects stalled drives and a muted touchdown ceiling. He projected a more conservative 90‑catch, 1,050‑yard, 6‑TD stat line and advised drafters to treat Smith‑Njigba as a mid‑range WR2 rather than reaching for a top‑10 price in redraft or best ball.

Jason Moore ranked Jaxon Smith‑Njigba as his WR10 and said the third‑year slot technician is about to detonate. Moore expects a rock‑solid 150‑plus targets now that DK Metcalf has been traded and Tyler Lockett released, noting JSN already finished 2024 as the overall WR10 while posting the sixth‑most first‑down receptions in football. Over the season’s final eight games he averaged 9.2 targets and 19.1 PPR points, evidence the light has already flipped on. Moore believes new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will stick with the quick‑hitting concepts that made Smith‑Njigba Geno Smith’s safety valve, and he expects Sam Darnold’s tendency to zero‑in on his first read to keep that funnel alive. With only an aging Cooper Kupp and an inconsistent ground game behind him, Moore projected 100+ catches, 1,300 yards and 8–10 touchdowns, calling JSN a priority second‑round pick in season‑long drafts and a core best‑ball building block.