Kevin Szafraniec said Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be treated as Seattle’s unquestioned WR1 and drafted aggressively a round ahead of ADP. Szafraniec argued that with both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett gone the only meaningful target competition is the newly-acquired Cooper Kupp, whose routes come from a different area of the field. Although Smith-Njigba has never topped a 2.0 yards-per-route-run, he finished 2024 fourth in total routes because Ben Grubb’s offense was the league’s second most pass-heavy. Szafraniec expects route volume to fall but efficiency to rise, projecting a YPRR over 2.0 and ‘a ton of targets’. He predicted the 2025 breakout will make JSN a top-three-round pick in next year’s best-ball lobbies.

Ian Hartitz faded Jaxon Smith-Njigba after Seattle added Cooper Kupp, arguing the two occupy the same underneath zones. Hartitz expects defenses to drop safeties into those short and middle windows because Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Tori Horton are not field-stretching threats that scare coordinators. In what he projects as low-scoring, run-centric game scripts ("ugly grind-them-out 17-14"), JSN could settle for eight-catch, 60-yard stat lines that play poorly in half-PPR or standard formats. Hartitz also warned that if Kupp is "toast" the congestion only gets worse, making JSN a receiver he is actively avoiding at current ADP.

Pat Mayo advised fading every Seattle pass catcher, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba, because he expects the Seahawks offense to ‘suck’ through the air while leaning on the run. Mayo’s skepticism is echoed by Ian Hartitz, who noted Ryan Grubb’s two-week play-action explosion in 2024 came against the league’s two worst scoring defenses and the new scheme now relies on OC Kubiak’s outside-zone ground attack. Hartitz added that Geno Smith is a downgrade from last year’s form, the offensive line remains a pass-protection liability, and Cooper Kupp’s arrival overlaps JSN’s interior route tree, tightening space underneath. With defenses unlikely to respect Seattle’s perimeter speed, he foresees congested middle zones and limited target quality. Both analysts are comfortable drafting Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet but want zero exposure to JSN, Kupp or any Seattle receiver in redraft.

McFarland hailed Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s preseason Week 2 deployment as the final piece to a breakout case. JSN logged 100% of snaps in 11, 12, and 21 personnel—meaning he did NOT leave when Seattle went two-wide—and absorbed a 25% target share from Sam Darnold. McFarland, already 25% exposed in drafts, said the slot/field-flipper hybrid now carries true WR1-overall upside if the Seahawks manage Cooper Kupp’s reps. He recommends scooping JSN at the Round-3/4 turn before the market corrects.

Jakob Sanderson said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is far more likely to disappoint than smash at his current best-ball ADP. Through two seasons the wideout still has not cracked the 2.00 yards-per-route-run threshold that typically signals elite upside. After benefiting from Geno Smith, Smith-Njigba is now paired with Sam Darnold and could even see Jalen Milro under center down the stretch, a move Sanderson warned could push Seattle to "minus-15% pass rate over expectation." The Seahawks already fired their coordinator for throwing too much and intend to lean on the run, so the environment projects as extremely low volume. With a low-to-intermediate aDOT and limited red-zone role, Sanderson thinks the realistic upside is beating positional ADP by only three-to-five slots, while the downside is becoming completely unstartable in fantasy playoff weeks if Milro starts. He is fading JSN unless the price falls considerably.

Jakob Sanderson wants to like Jaxon Smith-Njigba but laid out several red flags that keep him from targeting JSN as an upside swing. Through two NFL seasons JSN has yet to post a 2.0 yards-per-route-run season despite playing with what Sanderson called a ‘quite good’ Geno Smith. Seattle now turns to Sam Darnold, a clear downgrade, and fired its play-caller for passing too much—both moves point to an even run-heavier script. Sanderson added that JSN’s low-to-intermediate ADOT role further limits explosive plays, and he’s worried a late-season switch to rookie Jalen Milroe could create an Anthony Richardson–style passing black hole when fantasy money is on the line. Given the quarterback downgrade, likely reduced pass volume, and only modest per-route efficiency, Sanderson doubts JSN can pay off current ADP as a true breakout candidate.

FantasyPros Staff argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is undervalued on ESPN where he’s going at WR15 (ADP 34) even after finishing 2024 as the WR9 with 100 catches, 1,130 yards, six TDs and 14.9 PPR points per game. They acknowledged concern over Geno Smith being replaced by Sam Darnold but pointed out volume should climb after DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett left town. Although Seattle signed Cooper Kupp, staff still projects Smith-Njigba to command No.1 target share, saying the 15-spot gap between his expert consensus ranking (WR19) and ADP is unjustified for season-long drafters.

Dwain McFarland called JSN his highest-exposure Round-3 pick (26%) after the former first-rounder averaged 17.7 PPG and an 82 Utilization Score across Weeks 8-18 of 2024. Sam Darnold’s willingness to target tight windows mirrors Geno Smith’s, fitting Smith-Njigba’s intermediate route dominance. McFarland views him as a high-priority selection anywhere in the third round when drafters still need a receiver.

Chris Raybon echoed the love for JSN, calling him an "absolute target monster" over the final 10 games of last season and noting even greater target upside with Metcalf and Lockett gone. Raybon emphasized that Smith-Njigba routinely slips outside the top-12 in drafts despite a usage profile that already looked like a high-end WR2 down the stretch. Raybon’s takeaway: pound JSN at current ADP while the market lags on his featured-receiver role.

Sean Koerner said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear smash in the WR 13-18 tier, projecting him all the way up at WR12. Koerner expects the departure of both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to make JSN the unquestioned alpha in Seattle and even floated that he "could push for the league lead in receptions." Koerner dismissed Cooper Kupp’s arrival as a serious target threat and views any ADP outside the top-12 as a steal, arguing managers are getting a volume-driven WR1 at a WR2 price.

Sean Koerner identified Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the clear "value climber" of the WR13-WR18 tier and actually ranks him as his WR-12 overall. Koerner has been high on JSN since draft day and believes the sophomore will operate as a top-three target in Seattle immediately, with an 85-catch, 1,150-yard median projection. Unlike the rest of the tier that carries age, injury or volume concerns, Koerner sees minimal obstacles: Tyler Lockett is entering his age-33 season, and the Seahawks showed by Year-1’s final month that they were comfortable featuring Smith-Njigba in the slot on full-time snaps. With Seattle’s defense in transition, Koerner expects more pass-heavy scripts that can support three fantasy-viable receivers, making JSN a strong draft-day buy at a WR2 price.

Chris Raybon compared JSN’s 2025 outlook to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Year-3 breakout: massive volume was already there, and double-digit touchdowns could follow even though the public still worries about his red-zone ceiling. Raybon highlighted that the veteran options behind him—an aging Cooper Kupp and depth pieces—will mostly occupy zone-beater roles, leaving Smith-Njigba to hog first-read targets. He agreed with Koerner that Smith-Njigba could realistically threaten for the league lead in receptions and called him his preferred pick in the WR2 tier at Yahoo ADP 13.

Sean Koerner said Smith-Njigba should be treated as a high-end WR2 with true WR1 upside. Over the final ten games of 2024 the slot dynamo posted a 24 % targets-per-route rate and 81 receiving yards per game, numbers Koerner believes will hold because both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone and Cooper Kupp will not command heavy volume at this stage. Clint Kubiak’s offense projects to funnel looks underneath to JSN, and with Sam Darnold expected to keep the ball out quickly Koerner forecast a legitimate chance for Smith-Njigba to pace the entire league in receptions. He cautioned that touchdown upside may remain modest, but the weekly floor created by raw target volume makes him worth aggressive season-long drafts at WR12 overall.

Strachan is comfortable drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba as his fantasy WR1. He cited JSN’s ‘true breakout’ in 2024 and believes Seattle’s shift toward a run-heavy attack will actually funnel the limited pass volume through him. Play-action calls created by the heavy ground game should produce efficient, high-value targets, keeping JSN’s ceiling intact even if raw volume dips.

Justin Weigal labeled Jaxon Smith-Njigba a trap at WR13. The slot specialist posted a high catch rate but shallow average depth of target under last year’s pass-heavy OC. Seattle jumped from 17th to 7th in pass attempts, an anomaly Weigal expects to reverse with a new coordinator, solid defense, and run game. He projects roughly 115 targets—too few for a low-aDOT receiver to pay off a fringe-WR1 price tag.

Hayden Winks cautioned that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s current WR14 home-league ADP is too aggressive. He and Josh both have him at WR18 because Clint Kubiak’s incoming scheme figures to be far more balanced than last year’s sixth-ranked pass-attempt offense. With Sam Darnold under center, Winks anticipates heavy play-action, fewer total drop-backs, and condensed formations that muddy traditional slot spacing. JSN has logged only 58 routes in one- or two-wide sets, and Winks prefers Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Rashee Rice at similar prices. He’ll pull the trigger in Round 4, but not in the late third where the market currently takes him.

Best Ball Guy said he is passing on Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his mid-third-round cost. Clint Kubiak’s new West Coast scheme will mimic the 49ers: heavy run rate, quick throws and screens that ask receivers to block rather than pile up down-field targets. Seattle’s line is only "above average" on the left side and Sam Darnold is expected to be merely "very average", so the offense may not produce enough volume for a ceiling outcome. With that environment he “doesn’t see the upside” and believes JSN’s price tag is a trap in best-ball drafts.

Mike Wright ranked Smith-Njigba as his WR15 and said he will have "no shares" at the current WR12 price. Wright questioned whether Sam Darnold has actually leveled up, warning that the quarterback still operates behind a "bad offensive line" in a scheme the coaching staff wants to keep run-heavy. Cooper Kupp’s arrival clouds the target hierarchy, and Wright worries that if JSN is used primarily in the slot his week-to-week ceiling could shrink. Combining the uncertain quarterback play, desire to run, added target competition and cost, Wright believes fantasy drafters are accepting unnecessary risk by taking Smith-Njigba at or ahead of ADP and prefers pivoting to similarly priced receivers on more stable offenses.

Andy Holloway said Jaxon Smith-Njigba could legitimately finish as a top-three fantasy wideout this year. Holloway pointed to Smith-Njigba being one of only six players ever to post a 100-catch season before turning 23, noting that wide-receiver breakouts from CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase all came at the same age. With Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Noah Fant off the roster, Holloway expects an "out-of-control" target share for JSN, who already dominated volume over the second half of 2024. Camp reports have Seattle moving him inside and outside—mirroring Amon-Ra St. Brown’s usage shift—which Holloway believes unlocks down-field work and red-zone mismatches. Kenneth Walker’s latest injury and Sam Darnold’s willingness to pepper the short-to-intermediate area could further tilt the offense toward JSN. Taken in the eighth or ninth round, Holloway views him as a screaming value with true top-five, even top-three, season-long upside.

Andy Holloway labeled Jaxon Smith-Njigba his "fire" pick and moved him inside his positional top 10. Holloway cited JSN’s late-season usage shift: Seattle finally sent him downfield and outside rather than pigeon-holing him in the slot, unlocking big-play potential. At just 23, JSN is one of only six players ever to record a 100-catch NFL season before age 23, underscoring his ceiling. Holloway believes Seattle will give him more boundary snaps despite Cooper Kupp also working inside, forecasting a heavier target share and higher-value air yards. With ADP hovering in the late-third/early-fourth across major platforms, Holloway sees room for profit and is willing to draft JSN ahead of market, especially in formats that reward explosive plays.

Shawn Siegele said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is positioned for a 300-point season in 2025, citing Blair Andrews’ secondary-breakout research that shows first-round WRs who score in JSN’s 2024 range frequently jump well past 300 in Year 2. Siegele highlighted that Smith-Njigba led all receivers in his five-year yards-per-route-run database once opponent strength and team context were added, ranking ahead of Devonta Smith, Malik Nabers, and Ja'Marr Chase. In 2024 JSN logged the league’s second-most slot targets, third-most slot air yards, and third-most slot yards after the catch while facing minimal target competition beyond an aging Cooper Kupp. Teammate quotes describe him as more than a slot specialist and “ready to take the next step.” Siegele acknowledged lingering worries about the Sam Darnold/Jalen Milroe quarterback situation but argued the volume consolidation and elite prospect profile make a 300-point leap firmly in play.

Adam Rank said he is "willing to take a huge swing" on Jaxon Smith-Njigba because he expects the Seahawks to funnel a massive target share to the slot receiver now that Tyler Lockett is gone. That anticipated volume vaults JSN into Rank’s Tier-3 as an upside WR2 available at a WR3 draft cost.

Marcas Grant argued that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Round-3 WR14 price assumes a smoother transition than Seattle may deliver. Cooper Kupp’s arrival pushes JSN from the slot to the boundary, he’ll now catch passes from new quarterback Sam Darnold, and new coordinator Klint Kubiak has orders to lean on the run after Seattle posted the league’s fifth-lowest rush rate in 2024. Grant also flagged an offensive line that let Geno Smith absorb the third-most sacks; Darnold’s ugly showings under pressure (Week 18 and Wild Card) amplify the risk. He expects volume to funnel JSN’s way eventually but warned managers to brace for a rocky first month and a capped ceiling at current ADP.

McFarland is above market on JSN, projecting true breakout volume. After Week 8 last year he delivered 17.7 PPG, a 27% target share and 2.41 YPRR once DK Metcalf missed time. The 2025 Seahawks feature a new OC (Klint Kubiak), a QB willing to pull the trigger (Sam Darnold) and no proven outside alpha after Cooper Kupp’s late-career decline risk. McFarland sees a realistic 150-plus target season in a scheme expected to increase play-action and middle-of-field usage—precisely Smith-Njigba’s strengths—yielding WR2 production with legitimate WR1 upside at a Round-3/4 cost.

If Garrett Wilson is gone, Coventry pivoted to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, stating the second-year Seahawk “could see up to 160 targets” if everything breaks right. That level of volume would make him a draft-winning pick in the late third.

Matt Harmon called Sam Darnold an "imperfect" quarterback and remains skeptical about what Darnold will look like outside Kevin O’Connell’s cushy Vikings scheme, especially in Seattle’s bad-weather games. Even so, Harmon highlighted that Darnold’s 2023 heat map showed he excelled attacking deeper middle-of-field routes—exactly where Jaxon Smith-Njigba wins. With Cooper Kupp’s health a growing question and DK Metcalf in a contract year, Harmon believes JSN is the one reliable pass-catcher Seattle can funnel volume to. Reception Perception charted him as a better man-coverage beater than the public realizes. Harmon projects a jump to 22-25% target share and sees JSN as a priority Round-7 pick in best ball, labeling him "rain-proof PPR glue" even if Darnold is only average.

Jason Moore said he rarely drafts Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his 2.11 ADP (WR12) because the surrounding ecosystem screams regression. Moore expects Seattle to "slow it down" under defensive-minded Mike Macdonald and hide Sam Darnold behind a run-heavy Clint Kubiak scheme, throttling passing volume. JSN and Cooper Kupp both thrive from the slot (80% and 65% historical slot rates), creating overlap that could cap targets for each. Moore prefers Tee Higgins or RBs like Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor in that range and noted that year-two breakouts often get "steamed up too much" the following summer, pointing to historical WR2-to-WR1 ADP traps. Until the offensive line and quarterback situation stabilize, Moore views JSN as an avoid at cost in season-long and best-ball drafts.

For drafters who miss on Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams, Coventry suggested pivoting to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, projecting that the second-year slot technician could "flirt with 160 targets" in 2025. He sees the Seahawks shifting even more volume inside after moving on from veteran perimeter options, giving JSN one of the safest reception floors in the entire draft at his ADP.

Erickson is targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his present ADP, grabbing him in the Scott Fish Bowl and arguing Seattle is a bad team that will pepper one receiver. He believes JSN has already emerged as the clubhouse leader and that Cooper Kupp’s arrival does not disrupt that hierarchy. Because managers aren’t forced to pay a top-24 price, Erickson sees Smith-Njigba as an easy season-long buy.

Erik Beimfohr warned that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s sophomore breakout odds are being overrated because Seattle’s entire offensive ecosystem could crater. He called the Seahawks his 2024 "house-of-cards" unit: Sam Darnold behind a bad offensive line, Cooper Kupp mis-cast as the aging WR2, and zero contingency plan if Darnold starts seeing ghosts again. Beimfohr argued that in a week-five scenario where Seattle is winless, drafters will refuse to start JSN—even in a plus matchup versus Atlanta—because the passing game will be radioactive. With the offensive floor "easily worst in the league," he is trimming JSN exposure, preferring receivers in the same tier tied to steadier quarterback play and line play. Actionable takeaway: stay underweight JSN in best-ball drafts until Seattle shows a functional Plan B at quarterback.

Ian Hartitz pushed back on the JSN hype, slotting him at the bottom of the WR15-WR20 tier. Hartitz argued that Klint Kubiak’s two-week hot streak with the Saints came against defenses that finished 31st and 32nd in scoring, so extrapolating that sample is dangerous. He also thinks the Seahawks’ offensive line is far weaker than Kubiak’s 2023 Saints unit, especially up the middle—bad news for Sam Darnold, who imploded once interior pressure hit in Minnesota. Hartitz worries JSN’s skill set overlaps with Cooper Kupp, meaning neither player may see the classic slot-funnel volume if clear-out routes fail to develop. In his view, a downgrade from Geno Smith to Darnold plus questionable protection leaves JSN’s realistic ceiling at low-end WR2, making him overpriced at a top-10 tag.

Jake Ciely vaulted Jaxon Smith-Njigba to WR10 after studying new OC Klint Kubiak’s tape. Ciely explained that Kubiak’s Yankee-style concepts consistently create two-level route trees—one deep clear-out and one intermediate crosser—putting JSN in the Cooper Kupp role where 130+ targets are realistic. Seattle has already hinted at moving JSN outside more often, which should boost his average depth of target beyond last year’s gadget-heavy rookie deployment. Ciely is comfortable betting on Sam Darnold as a volume generator, comparing the setup to Jameis Winston’s fantasy-friendly chaos years: turnovers may pile up, but so will pass attempts. With 130 receptions and a mid-teen aDOT in his projections, Ciely believes JSN can finish inside the overall WR1 conversation if Darnold merely holds the job all season.

Ben Gretch argued drafters should pass on Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his late-third/early-fourth ADP because Seattle’s new offensive direction caps passing volume. Clint Kubiak arrives from the Saints with a mandate to run, and the Seahawks have publicly stated they fired Ryan Grubb for not calling enough rushing plays. They even drafted Jalen Milroe specifically for Lamar-style package runs, a design choice that further suppresses pass attempts. Gretch’s early projections show a "pretty decent" run rate that leaves DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and tight-end usage fighting for a shrinking pie before JSN sees any target bump. The sophomore’s talent is not in question, but his price assumes a volume leap that the scheme simply will not provide unless game scripts flip negative. Gretch labeled the current cost a structural mistake in both Season-Long and Best-Ball formats and prefers to skip the tier entirely or reach for other positions.

Shawn Siegele said the wide-receiver bucket currently priced between WR14 (Garrett Wilson) and WR22 (DJ Moore) is almost entirely undraftable when run through a basic RotoViz Screener projection. Median and ceiling outcomes in that range simply do not justify third-round capital, wiping out the structural edge of receiver-heavy or Zero-RB builds. The lone exception he’s willing to click is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose Year-2 breakout profile still offers a realistic path to a sizable target-share jump and difference-making upside. If your draft lands in this dead zone, Siegele advises either pulling preferred players forward from later rounds or selecting Smith-Njigba, rather than wasting the pick on a receiver whose projection cannot move the needle.

Ulrich argued that Jaxon Smith-Njigba can vault from current WR19 ADP into top-five territory. He reminded drafters that JSN was 12th in targets and WR9 in PPR last year, yet the market is applying regression despite both Tyler Lockett (74 targets) and DK Metcalf (104) leaving Seattle. Veterans Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling pose minimal threat, and new OC Klint Kubiak just engineered career seasons for Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins. Ulrich expects a condensed passing game with Seattle projecting as a middling team forced into pass-rate spikes, making JSN the focal point.

Chris Raybon predicted Jaxon Smith-Njigba could push for an Amon-Ra St. Brown level target share and flirt with 150 receptions in Shane Waldron’s quick-hitting scheme. With Cooper Kupp showing dramatic efficiency decline and rookie Tori Horton expected to run clear-out routes early, Raybon believes JSN will dominate middle-of-the-field looks from day one. He called Sam Darnold and eventual rookie Jalen Milroe "check-down artists by necessity," a perfect match for Smith-Njigba’s elite short-area separation. Raybon has JSN well above consensus in his preseason ranks, slotting him as a high-floor WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside in full-PPR Season-long leagues and a cornerstone piece of Seattle stacks in Best Ball tournaments.

Mike Leone said JSN is his favorite pick of the overloaded third-round receiver tier—provided Sam Darnold holds the Seattle job all season. JSN sits at the very top of ETR’s board in the early-30s range, yet Leone admits he occasionally passes because he worries the Seahawks could bench Darnold for rookie Jalen Milroe down the stretch, which would hammer passing volume. If Darnold starts 17 games, though, Leone believes Smith-Njigba’s target-earning profile makes him a smash: Seattle quietly fed him 20.2 % of first-read looks over the final six weeks of 2023, and his slot-heavy route tree dovetails with Darnold’s preference for quick, over-the-middle throws. Leone’s calculus is simple—at ADP you’re betting on quarterback stability; if you think Darnold lasts, JSN offers the cleanest WR3 ceiling in the round.

Jim Coventry called Jaxon Smith-Njigba an unjustified faller after his ADP slipped from WR12 to WR14 and projected he could see roughly 160 targets this season. Coventry cited Smith-Njigba’s 100-catch, 1,130-yard breakout while sharing looks with DK Metcalf and a fading Tyler Lockett, adding that Seattle lacks a credible No. 3 option. He argued Smith-Njigba will be the receiver Sam Darnold leans on, with heavy usage over the middle and continued slot work even when Cooper Kupp rotates inside. Given that expected volume, Coventry believes the sophomore is being undervalued.

Hayden Winks admitted he can’t justify drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba ahead of Xavier Worthy in Underdog half-PPR. Seattle projects as one of the most run-centric teams in the league with Sam Darnold at QB, and Darnold historically ignores underneath routes—the exact zone where JSN lives. Worthy, by contrast, brings field-stretching splash plays that score better in this format and will catch passes from Patrick Mahomes. Winks is fading JSN at his Round-5/6 price tag and scooping Worthy or other high-variance receivers instead.

Best Ball Guy said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is mispriced at the 4/5 turn and should be drafted ahead of Mike Evans, DJ Moore, and even teammate DK Metcalf. His case: (1) Seattle’s target tree is surprisingly thin—JSN is "the only guy there" after a quiet but encouraging sophomore breakout; (2) every NFC West defense outside San Francisco graded bottom-half in 2023, giving him a soft divisional schedule; and (3) Sam Darnold is competent enough that the offense "won’t suck," maybe even out-producing Bryce Young on a per-game yardage basis, which mitigates concerns about Geno Smith’s decline. Add in typical year-three breakout data for first-round receivers, and Best Ball Guy views JSN as one of the cleanest closing-line bets in BBM6.

Tyler Knaeble pitched Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a premier third-year breakout target, noting several situational tailwinds. First, new OC Clint Kubiak is expected to implement a more vertical attack, a perfect match for JSN’s route-running and downfield separation skills. Second, DK Metcalf’s lingering lower-body issues could open up an alpha target share if the veteran misses time or plays limited snaps. Knaeble also suggested that Cooper Kupp’s age-related decline further narrows the group of receivers with true league-winning upside in JSN’s ADP neighborhood. Because casual drafters have not yet updated their priors, he believes JSN’s price will rise sharply once preseason clips of the Seahawks’ aggressive passing concepts hit social media and Metcalf’s health is re-evaluated. Knaeble urged best-ball drafters to load up now while the discount exists.

Jason Moore called Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s late-second ADP (2.11, WR12) "too hot to handle." Moore cited Mike Wright’s research showing only 8 of 19 sophomore breakout receivers met or beat lofty Year-3 ADP, with just two becoming league winners. JSN already jumped to WR10 last season on a torrid second-half pace, so drafters are paying for near-perfect progression. Moore prefers scooping Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson or DK Metcalf a round later and argues that whiffing on a second-round pick with just a 42 % hit rate is catastrophic. Unless JSN falls into Round 3, Moore is out.

Emory Hunt likes the OVER on both JSN props—925.5 receiving yards and 5.5 touchdowns—because elite route runners earn volume regardless of scheme. He compared Smith-Njigba to Cooper Kupp, calling him savvy enough to manipulate coverage and create separation. Hunt believes Seattle’s staff will emphasize ‘players, not plays,’ ensuring their best weapon commands targets even in a run-centric attack. Given JSN’s 1,100-yard rookie season and anticipated growth, Hunt expects him to clear both numbers despite the quarterback change to Sam Darnold.

Alex Selznick advised staying away from JSN’s 925.5-yard and 5.5-TD props until more information surfaces. He loves the player but worries about context: Sam Darnold’s arrival means reduced passing volume; DK Metcalf’s absence forces Smith-Njigba to play outside more often instead of his collegiate slot comfort zone; and the chemistry between Darnold and JSN is a complete unknown—Darnold could lean on veteran Cooper Kupp. Selznick said the numbers look beatable but prefers to watch preseason usage and route distribution before committing bankroll.

Nez argued that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is mis-priced in both the prop market and Best Ball drafts after Underdog posted a 975-yard receiving line and a 6.5 TD line. The rookie’s yardage number is only 50 yards higher than Jauan Jennings’ 925 line even though JSN costs four full rounds more in ADP. Nez said that tiny projection gap signals the books expect Seattle to spread targets rather than funnel them to the second-year wideout, making the 975 mark feel like a ceiling rather than a median. He is hammering the lower in season-long Pick’Em cards and fading JSN at his current draft slot, preferring Jennings as the arbitrage play.

Ian Hartitz said he cannot justify paying a top-16 price tag for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Hartitz expects a noticeable drop in target quality with Sam Darnold replacing Geno Smith, noting Darnold has been "good for maybe three or four games a year" throughout his career. He also flagged role redundancy with newcomer Cooper Kupp, arguing that both receivers operate in the same short-area slot space and will cannibalize each other. After re-watching every JSN catch, Hartitz came away more impressed by Geno’s ball placement than JSN’s individual creation, so any quarterback downgrade hits doubly hard. In full-PPR formats he concedes a safe floor via screen-game volume, but at WR15 cost he prefers cheaper alphas such as DK Metcalf or DeVonta Smith who do not need perfect deployment to pay off.

Conner Allen predicted Jaxon Smith-Njigba could post top-five fantasy WR numbers in 2025 now that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are gone and an aging Cooper Kupp is miscast outside. Allen expects Seattle to feature JSN in the slot and movable-chess-piece roles, projecting a 27-30 % target share on route participation near 100 %. He noted JSN’s 2.29 yards per route run as a rookie already beat the league average by 42 % and that new OC Ryan Grubb’s uptempo, RPO-heavy scheme produced a 64 % slot-target rate at Washington. With little competition for underneath volume and a defense likely to force shoot-outs, Allen sees a path to 115 receptions and 1,350 yards—numbers that would vault the sophomore into must-draft territory across all season-long and best-ball formats.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound jumped on Jaxon Smith-Njigba at pick 33 after noticing the sophomore wide-out has quietly slipped a handful of spots in Underdog drafts over the past week. Pat pointed out that grabbing JSN at the back of Round 3 not only locks in closing-line value but also opens up a rare Week 17 Panthers-Seahawks correlation that almost no one else will have at that price range. Because he previously had zero "Nabers + JSN" pairings in his portfolio, Pat views this discounted selection as a two-fold edge: unique roster construction plus exposure to an explosive Seattle passing attack that finished top-10 in yards per attempt last season. He encouraged drafters to pounce on the slide before summer news cycles push JSN back into the mid-20s.

Jason Moore said drafters should treat Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a legitimate breakout candidate with weekly WR1 upside. Moore pointed to the very real possibility that both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are dealt away, vacating 45.7% of Seattle’s 2024 targets and every deep shot in the playbook. He reminded listeners that JSN closed last season on a tear—top-20 in yards per route over the final six weeks—after operating almost exclusively from the slot early on. Moore believes the former first-round pick will inherit the alpha role he was drafted for and climb inside the top-10 at the position thanks to a projected 140-plus targets. While he acknowledged the risk of a new coordinator and the Sam Darnold/Jalen Milroe quarterback combo, Moore thinks the sheer volume compensates for any efficiency dip. He recommended scooping Smith-Njigba in the late third or early fourth round of season-long drafts before the market adjusts to the looming target windfall.

Mike Wright flagged Jaxon Smith-Njigba as one of 2025’s biggest ADP traps. Wright reviewed every wide receiver drafted since 2014 and found 19 players who cracked the top-24 for the first time in their second season. The following year, 9 of those 19 failed to hit their expected fantasy points based on ADP, and 8 were ‘big misses’ that finished at least two PPR points per game below the slot. Only two smashed expectations. Smith-Njigba currently carries a WR15 price tag despite legitimate red flags: a brand-new offensive coordinator pledging a run-first approach, an unproven quarterback switch to Sam Darnold, and potential roster movement around DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett that could alter target distribution. Wright added that JSN’s rookie-year scoring surge was touchdown-driven—weeks 1-8 produced one score on eight targets per game versus five touchdowns on nine targets per game from weeks 9-16—another stat he expects to normalize. He advised passing on Smith-Njigba in the top four rounds and targeting steadier veterans in that range.

Mike Renner warned that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s sophomore jump now looks unlikely after Seattle dealt its only true field-stretcher, D.K. Metcalf. Renner argued JSN benefited in 2024 from defenses rolling coverage toward Metcalf’s 4.33 speed, allowing him to feast underneath. The retooled receiving corps now features 32-year-old Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling—"no one’s scared of him at this point," Renner said—meaning secondaries can squat on short and intermediate routes. Without a vertical threat to open throwing lanes, Renner expects Seattle’s average depth of target to plummet and projects JSN’s yards per route run to fall below last year’s 1.72 mark. He suggested downgrading JSN to a WR4 in season-long leagues and avoiding him in DFS unless his salary drops into the mid-$4K range.