Chris Raybon urged listeners to grab Jaxson Dart at 13-1 to be the Giants’ Week 1 starter. Raybon thinks the market is overweighting Russell Wilson’s reputation (Wilson currently sits at –750) and ignoring several realistic paths to Dart getting the nod: 1) Wilson has finished top-10 in three-and-outs four straight years and could quickly look washed in camp; 2) the Giants traded back into Round 1 to take Dart, a signal they want him on the field sooner than later; 3) Brian Daboll’s job security depends on showcasing the rookie rather than riding out an aging vet; and 4) any minor injury to Wilson would open the door, the same way Chicago’s staff pivoted off him last season. Add in a late bye week and a brutal early schedule that offers no tidy hand-off point, and Raybon believes management will simply start the rookie if he stacks a few good August practices. He compared the scenario to Buffalo’s 2018 switch from Nathan Peterman to Josh Allen after one ugly loss. In Raybon’s words, “Smash Dart.”

Ryan Heath said Jackson Dart is the perfect third-quarterback bullet in Best Ball Mania builds that are already anchored by two reliable starters. Heath prefers Dart to Tyler Shuck when he is not desperate for early-season points because Dart brings more mobility and, in Heath’s words, “probably a higher weekly ceiling.” He expects the Giants’ brutal opening schedule to push Brian Daboll to the rookie no later than mid-season, calling it “incredibly likely that Dart is starting in Weeks 15-17,” the only stretch that matters for the BBM prize pool. Heath noted Daboll has publicly praised Dart’s aggressiveness and that the rookie offers the fantasy-friendly combination of rushing production and a deep-ball mindset that fueled Daniel Jones’ 2022 breakout. Pairing Dart with Malik Nabers exposure further sweetens the pick for playoff correlation.

Chris Raybon argued that rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart should be treated as the odds-on favorite to open the season under center for the Giants—even if Brian Daboll has yet to name a starter—because the schedule leaves almost no soft landing spots later in the year. New York does not get a bye until Week 14 and faces what Raybon called ‘a murderers’ row’ of defenses: at Dallas, Kansas City, the Chargers, at New Orleans, Philadelphia, at Denver and San Francisco all before December. If Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston begin the campaign 1-7—as Raybon’s power-ratings model projects—the staff would be forced to throw Dart into the fire on short rest or elevation road games, scenarios rookie QBs historically flunk (38 % ATS for debuts in Denver). By contrast, starting him in Week 1 gives a full camp to build the playbook around his mobility and lets Daboll lean on Saquon Barkley against Washington’s shaky front. Raybon’s takeaway for fantasy gamers is to grab Dart in the final rounds of Best Ball drafts and in deep SuperFlex leagues, banking on 17 potential starts at a QB3 price.

Danny Kanell said the Giants will move slowly with first-round rookie Jaxson Dart. Kanell noted Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen signed BOTH Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston so the rookie can sit. He pointed to Dart coming from Lane Kiffin’s fast-signal college offense where play calls were "right gun, Y-stick," while an NFL call might be "ace right trips, flip it, wing opposite, Q Hot Louis, half-17 wing and Y-out." That learning curve plus more under-center snaps means Dart must first master the language before processing reads at game speed. The front office wants to avoid a Zach Wilson-style confidence crash, so Kanell expects Dart to ride the bench until late in the season at best. That makes him a stash-only option in deep season-long leagues and a fade in early best-ball drafts for 2024 rookie-year production.

Jakob Sanderson pushed back on the idea that Jaxson Dart is a safe asset, calling him a boom-bust bet that could crater in value by 2026. Sanderson pointed out that since 2011 only Lamar Jackson and (eventually) Jordan Love have delivered long-term fantasy utility among quarterbacks drafted 16–32 overall, while E.J. Manuel, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Paxton Lynch, Dwayne Haskins, Kenny Pickett, and Brandon Weeden all flamed out quickly. With Russell Wilson expected to start early in 2025, Sanderson fears Dart will get just 6-10 late-season appearances in Brian Daboll’s system—appearances that may come in a lame-duck season for Daboll and Joe Schoen. If a new coaching staff arrives in 2026, there is no guarantee they build around Dart’s low-floor profile. Because first-round draft capital after pick 15 historically provides only 34% odds of a second contract as a starter, Sanderson has dropped Dart into a tier with Xavier Worthy, Luther Burden, and other positional prospects rather than paying a "safe QB premium."

Pat Kerrane compared selecting Jaxson Dart at the 1.10–2.02 range of Superflex rookie drafts to buying a U.S. Treasury bond. Kerrane said first-round quarterbacks almost always appreciate in dynasty value during their first season, and managers can "pick up a nickel off the street" by scooping Dart at current prices. Even if Russell Wilson opens 2025 as the starter, Kerrane expects Dart to make multiple appearances and show enough mobility (career 7.3% collegiate designed-run rate) to flash fantasy upside. Kerrane noted that every first-round QB taken after pick 10 over the last three classes gained at least a half-round of startup value by Year 2 and thinks Dart will follow that trend simply by stepping on the field. With Brian Daboll’s pass-heavy tendencies and a thin Giants depth chart behind Malik Nabers, Kerrane believes the floor is an easy flip for future rookie capital and the ceiling is a long-term starter acquired at a discount.

Davis Mattek said he will "have bags and bags" of Jaxson Dart in Superflex rookie drafts because the market will let the Giants’ first-rounder slide to the 1.12–2.01 turn. Mattek argued drafters are over-penalizing Dart for an uncertain Week-1 starting status even though Brian Daboll personally lobbied for him over Shadour Sanders. With Daboll coaching for his job, Mattek expects Dart to be on the field by the third or fourth loss—if not straight out of camp—citing Russell Wilson’s $10 M prove-it deal and the fact three teams have already moved on from Wilson in consecutive seasons. Jameis Winston only enters the picture, Mattek said, if Dart completely face-plants and Daboll is already fired. He compared the current draft dynamic to past discounts on Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones: first-round quarterbacks who were perceived as developmental but wound up starting early and smashing rookie ADP. Mattek cautioned that a Day-2 running back landing in Dallas or Denver could bump Dart another spot or two, creating an even better buying window, and recommended prioritizing Dart over depth-chart receivers like Matthew Golden when he falls past veteran QB names such as Matthew Stafford.

Rob Coakley advised simply X-ing Giants quarterbacks—specifically rookie Jaxson Dart—out of 2025 best-ball drafts. He compared Dart’s situation to Drake Maye’s 2024 ordeal, reminding listeners how long Maye sat before becoming only "fine" once he finally played. Coakley noted that veteran Russell Wilson, while no longer elite, is still clearly better than Jacoby Brissett and any developmental option, making Dart’s path to early starts extremely murky. Because drafters tend to "galaxy-brain" themselves into over-exposing to every rookie passer, Coakley is tightening his entire QB pool to 15-17 names with locked-in Week-1 jobs and urges listeners not to waste roster spots or capital on Giants signal-callers.

Rich Rebar urged caution on Jackson Dart, citing the brutal track record of quarterbacks taken 20th overall or later. Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams, only Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers have truly hit from that bucket, while names like Kenny Pickett, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, and Jordan Love (three-year wait) highlight the minefield. Rebar warned that if Dart is mediocre in his first handful of starts, dynasty GMs will be stuck holding a rapidly depreciating asset. In a tight-end premium league, he prefers flipping the pick for a high-capital tight end such as Tyler Warren whose "currency lasts longer" than a potentially short-leashed passer.

Pat Kerrane selected first-round pick Jaxson Dart over remaining skill players, betting on quarterback scarcity. Kerrane expects Brian Daboll to keep Dart on the bench early, then unleash him for the final 4–5 games—enough of a sample to flip the rookie for more than a late first-rounder in Superflex leagues. Dart offers mobility and aggressive down-field traits that could translate into an "exciting brand of football" under Daboll, giving dynasty managers both point-spike potential and immediate arbitrage value once he hits the field.

Raybon argued that Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen are coaching for their jobs and may fast-track Jackson Dart into the lineup sooner than expected if Russell Wilson sputters. He advised fantasy managers to plan on scooping Dart off waivers the moment beat writers hint at first-team reps because the rookie’s mobility alone can create immediate QB2 value once he starts.

Koerner called Jackson Dart a "toolsy" prospect who could eventually average 30-40 rushing yards per game—comparable to early-career Josh Allen or Daniel Jones—once he wrestles the job away from Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. Because Old Miss ran a one-clap gimmick offense, Koerner expects a longer learning curve and projected only eight starts this season, but he loves the pairing with rookie WR Malik Nabers for late-season best-ball stacks. Draft Dart as a third QB who could pop during fantasy playoff weeks.

Davis Mattek advised stashing first-round pick Jaxson Dart wherever possible because Brian Daboll’s job security all but guarantees Dart will see the field quickly. Daboll reportedly “won an internal battle” to draft Dart over Shadour Sanders, so Mattek expects the coach to unleash his hand-picked quarterback the moment Russell Wilson falters—potentially as soon as Week 1. He pointed out that three franchises have benched Wilson in each of the last three seasons and that the Giants’ brass cannot afford a 1-4 start. Mattek concedes Dart is raw coming out of a QB-friendly Ole Miss scheme, but New York’s system is tailor-made: heavy pre-snap motion and RPO looks that hide slow reads while leveraging Dart’s plus arm strength and pocket mobility. Because of that setup, Mattek sees a realistic path to 10–12 starts, 300+ rush yards, and low-end QB1 weekly spikes. In Superflex dynasty he has Tet McMillan ranked higher overall, yet still values Dart above Cam Ward, assigning him mid-second-round rookie pick status. For Best Ball, Mattek is already mixing Dart into three-QB builds at the very end of drafts before any training-camp steam pushes his ADP into the teens.

Matt Perrault advised betting Jackson Dart to be drafted before pick 22 (he played under 21.5 at –125 and still likes anything up to 24.5). Perrault cited multiple indicators: buzz from Senior Bowl scouts who told Derrick Brown that teams "secretly loved" Dart, the Instagram slip by Giants GM Joe Schoen posting Dart highlights, and the sheer volume of quarterback-needy franchises (Giants, Saints, Steelers, plus trade-up candidates in the mid-teens). He stressed that even in a weak QB class, clubs chase the first-round fifth-year option, making an early selection likely. All of that leads him to believe Dart goes somewhere in the top 20-21 picks, making the under on his draft slot a profitable play.

Hansen recommended the +200 prop that Jaxson Dart is drafted ahead of Shedeur Sanders, effectively making Dart the second quarterback off the board. He emphasized that DraftKings lists Dart –300 just to go in Round 1, and the over 2.5 total QBs in Round 1 is juiced to –135, showing books already expect Dart to crash the first round. With only Cam Ward lurking as another fringe option, Hansen gives Dart a 51-52% chance to leapfrog Sanders, calling the +200 price a rare mis-pricing given the Saints’ quiet interest and the overall scarcity of QB fits late in the first round.

Chris Raybon followed his Giants-Sanders call by taking the Saints ‘To Draft Jaxson Dart’ at +250. League chatter has New Orleans brass “in love” with the Ole Miss quarterback’s aggressive intermediate accuracy, a trait Pete Carmichael’s play-action heavy system demands. With Derek Carr’s contract becoming escapable after 2025, the Saints can afford to red-shirt Dart for a year while leveraging his cost-controlled window later. Raybon believes the Saints view him as a better schematic fit than Sanders, explaining why they have not been linked to Colorado’s passer despite thorough quarterback homework. He sets the probability north of 35%, making +250 attractive.

DraftKings’ race and sports director Johnny Avello said the book has taken steady two‑way action on Jaxson Dart’s draft position (24.5) but "bettors have been betting under 2.5 quarterbacks going in the first round the entire time." That wave of money has dragged the over 2.5 price from ‑325 to ‑135 and pushed the under from +240 to +105. Avello admitted the house would actually win if three quarterbacks sneak into Round 1, implying bookmakers think the market may now be tilted too far toward the under. Still, the public conviction, closing line value and shrinking juice indicate sharper bettors believe only Cam Ward and one of Shedeur Sanders/Jaxson Dart hear their names on Thursday, making the +105 under 2.5 an actionable bet before it possibly flips to minus odds.

Youmans played Jaxson Dart under 25.5 draft position at ‑115 and called the Ole Miss quarterback his favorite passer in the class outside projected No. 1 Cam Ward. He cited strong league buzz—Giants, Saints, and Steelers all "like him"—and expects Dart to become the second QB selected once trade activity starts around the middle of Round 1. Because most mocks place Dart in the late teens, Youmans believes anything under pick 26 offers plus expected value.

McCrystal played "Jaxson Dart draft position OVER 21.5 (‑135)" on the premise the Steelers, owners of pick 21 and the only obvious QB landing spot, will pass. He called a Round‑1 Dart selection a desperation move Pittsburgh is unlikely to repeat after the Kenny Pickett debacle. Supporting evidence: Mike Tomlin and GM Omar Khan skipped Dart’s Ole Miss Pro Day—historically they attend every future 1st‑round target—and even the QB coach stayed home, leaving only the assistant GM and WR coach on site. Dart did visit Pittsburgh, but the franchise’s draft‑day patterns indicate Day‑2 interest at most, making the field versus pick 21 an attractive wager.

Thor Nystrom predicted that Pittsburgh will pull the trigger on Jaxson Dart at pick 21 and told bettors to treat the Ole Miss passer’s draft‑slot Under 24.5 (currently –125) as one of the sharper angles left on the board. Nystrom noted that two fringe quarterbacks—Dart and Jalen Milroe—received green‑room invitations, a signal the league expects one or both to slip into the back half of Round 1. Even if the Steelers ultimately land Aaron Rodgers on a one‑year rental, Thor believes the front office still wants a long‑term contingency plan and prefers a pocket passer who mirrors their Pickett/Ben era concepts. Dart checks every one of Bill Parcells’ seven QB benchmarks, owns legit NFL arm talent, and operated efficiently in both the Air Raid (USC) and Lane Kiffin’s motion‑heavy attack (Ole Miss). The only unknown is how he processes after the snap, but Nystrom pointed to similar ‘black‑box’ prospects—Matt Corral, Sam Howell—who still went top‑150. He advised pairing the Under 24.5 with “Team to Draft Jaxson Dart – Steelers” props that still sit between +450 and +600.

Wilson has the Jets selecting Jaxson Dart at 42 overall, noting the franchise must think past its two‑year experiment with Justin Fields. Fields publicly dodged hypotheticals about the team drafting another passer, and Tyrod Taylor is on a short‑term deal, leaving a glaring succession gap. Wilson adds that Cleveland could snag Dart at pick 33, but if he slips the Jets should pounce to secure a developmental starter with mobility and arm talent.

Chris Raybon advises against betting the median range draft positions around 21 and a half to 24 and a half for quarterback Jaxson Dart. Instead, Raybon suggests the smarter approach is targeting Dart going much earlier (in the top five) at much longer odds (50-to-1, 75-to-1). Given Dart's highly volatile potential and broad range of draft outcomes, Raybon argues there is minimal value in targeting the precise middle spots of the draft order. Instead, he sees value in going for the huge payouts associated with an early Dart selection scenario, which is more reflective of Dart's real upside draft potential.