JSU advised passing on Joe Burrow at his current fourth-round Best Ball ADP, noting the Bengals star offers virtually no rushing equity—only 1.6 fantasy points per game on the ground last season—which caps his week-winning ceiling relative to cheaper dual-threat options available six to eight rounds later. JSU reminded listeners that seven of the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks in 2024 logged at least 300 rushing yards, while Burrow’s career high is 259. Because quarterback scoring in Best Ball is driven by spike-weeks, he prefers late options such as Bo Nix or Cam Ward who can add 40-yard rushing bonuses and red-zone scrambles. In JSU’s builds, paying a premium for a pocket passer like Burrow forces you to pass on high-upside receivers or bell-cow RBs in the same range, a trade-off he sees as sub-optimal in tournament structures.

Jason Moore advised passing on Joe Burrow at his current fourth-round price, arguing that the pure pocket passer profile does not justify the opportunity cost. Moore acknowledged Burrow’s elite career touchdown rate (5.9% since his rookie year and never below 34 TDs in a healthy season) but expects that number to regress toward league average, pointing out that even historically great quarterbacks see their 7%+ seasons inevitably fall back. With Burrow offering 200 or fewer rushing yards, Moore prefers to draft premium talent at other positions in Round 4 and wait for cheaper options. He flagged durability as an additional concern—Burrow has already lost parts of two seasons—and noted that Cincinnati’s offensive line allowed more sacks than Tampa’s last year. For Moore, the combination of regression risk, minimal rushing floor, and hefty draft capital makes Burrow a stay-away in season-long and best-ball formats unless his ADP slides into the sixth round or later.

Davis Mattek argued that drafters who open a Best Ball Mania room with Jamar Chase should bite the bullet and grab Joe Burrow at the 4-5 turn instead of trying to squeeze an extra round of ADP value by waiting until the 6-7 turn. Mattek said the room often will not gift you that discount, leaving you with an uncorrelated Burrow—or worse, a consolation quarterback like Mike Gesicki in Week 17. Because a Chase/Burrow stack unlocks one of the highest-ceiling Week 17 correlations on the board, Mattek believes the expected value of securing the combo outweighs any theoretical closing-line value from a modest ADP fall. "If you get to Week 17, you’re going to want Joe Burrow with Chase, not Joe Burrow with Mike Gesicki," he reminded listeners.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafters should flat-out pass on Joe Burrow in Underdog’s three-week Sprint/Playoff contest unless they already roster one of the Bengals’ top three wideouts. He argued that advancing through Weeks 15-17 requires correlated ceiling every single week, and Burrow’s path to 30-point spike games is almost entirely tied to Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, or Jermaine Burton being healthy. If even one of those receivers is sidelined—something that has happened each of the last two seasons—Burrow’s upside craters. Pat called the idea of relying on Andrei Iosivas or Charlie Jones “pure fiction” and noted that an unstacked Burrow has to outscore fully-correlated QB/WR pairs across three separate slates. Even at a one-round ADP discount, he advised reallocating the pick to a quarterback you can properly stack inside the same draft room.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound advised scooping up Joe Burrow whenever he slides roughly 12 picks past ADP, even if you do not already have Bengals pass-catchers. Referencing high-volume drafter FF Links’ stellar advance rates, Pat argued that the raw value of an elite quarterback at a one-round discount outweighs Week-17 correlation concerns. In his view, locking in the discounted production from a proven top-five scorer materially boosts regular-season advance rate equity in Best Ball Mania drafts.

Pete Overzet advised pushing Joe Burrow past the four-five turn whenever possible, saying his projection team has Burrow a full round behind current Best Ball Mania ADP. The issue is ceiling: Burrow averaged just 14.4 rushing yards per game over the last two healthy seasons and ranks outside the top-15 quarterbacks in designed-run rate, capping weekly upside relative to rushing QBs going in the same range. Overzet’s plan is to let Chase or Higgins drafters overpay; he will only click Burrow when rooms let him slide into the mid-60s or later. If you believe Burrow’s ADP is truly efficient, Overzet conceded you might lock in the stack half the time, but because his model values rushing quarterbacks more heavily, he personally will push the exposure "close to 100 percent" of the time and allocate those draft-capital savings to skill players.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound warned that Joe Burrow’s current Sprint cost—often around pick 47—is tough to justify when his 2023 fantasy total matched Baker Mayfield’s 381 points. Pat emphasized that drafters are paying a three-round premium for Burrow’s brand name even though his weekly ceiling was nearly identical to Mayfield’s last season. With Burrow still recovering full mobility after wrist surgery and the Bengals trending toward a more balanced attack, Pat is fading him at the 4/5 turn and reallocating that capital toward wide receivers or cheaper upside quarterbacks.

Emory Hunt endorsed Joe Burrow at +600 for MVP, calling 2024 the "it’s his turn" season. He expects the rebuilt offensive line to hold up, a healthier Burrow to start all 17 games, and the staff to lean on Chase Brown’s emerging run game to keep defenses honest. With elite perimeter weapons and an offense that rediscovered balance late last year, Hunt believes voters will reward Burrow’s gaudy passing totals and team success despite the short number.