Andy Holloway labeled Joe Mixon the last running back on the board with a clear feature workload and took him at the 6.04 spot of their 10-team mock. Holloway said Mixon was "kind of sitting in a tier by himself" and still projects as a top-15 back, whereas the remaining options were unproven rookies or time-share veterans. He believes Mixon’s three-down profile in Houston secures weekly volume that will dry up quickly once this part of the draft ends, making him an easy click over the mid-tier tight ends or back-end WR4 types available in the same range.

Pat Kerrane said fantasy managers should stop fading Joe Mixon now that his 2025 Underdog ADP sits firmly in Round 5. Mixon finished 2024 as RB10 in half-PPR points-per-game and logged a 67 % snap share despite turning 28. Kerrane emphasized that Woody Marks profiles strictly as a third-down satellite back— 188 lbs and ranked outside the top-60 in yards after contact per attempt in college— so Marks is unlikely to threaten Mixon’s early-down or goal-line work. No other Bengals back saw more than eight carries in any game last year. If Mixon simply repeats last season’s 18.4 touches and 3.1 red-zone opportunities per game, he can “bury” WR-heavy builds that pass on him for fringe wideouts with similar projection. Kerrane’s takeaway: swallow your pride, click Mixon in the fifth, and let your early-round receivers plus a bankable RB1 ceiling do the talking in best-ball tournaments.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound advised continuing to scoop Joe Mixon despite news that he skipped OTAs with a lower-body tweak and was briefly spotted in a walking boot. Pat emphasized that Texans camp does not open for six more weeks, giving Mixon ample time to heal. He believes the buzz will shave two to three ADP spots, creating value on a back who is still projected for 70-plus percent of Houston’s early-down touches after the Devin Singletary departure. Pat considers any dip an automatic buy given the Texans’ top-10 offensive line and season-closing dome schedule.

Davis Mattek said he would “snap-take Joe Mixon over George Pickens every time” in Underdog Superflex drafts. Mattek argued that wideouts like Pickens, Jalen Waddle and Chris Olave are artificially inflated because drafters are conditioned by three-WR start requirements in other formats. In Superflex you only need two receivers, so the scarcity premium vanishes while touchdown-heavy running backs remain valuable in half-PPR scoring. Mixon is projected for a three-down role in Houston after Devin Singletary’s exit and offers an 18-touch weekly floor plus red-zone monopoly—far better median points than a mid-tier WR who needs a blown coverage to separate. Mattek framed Mixon as a pure projection play: “Give me the locked-in volume instead of the WR3 lottery ticket.”

Selecting Joe Mixon at the 4-5 turn, Ian Hartitz called him the perfect hero-RB anchor. Before his late-season fade, Mixon ranked RB2 behind only Saquon Barkley in half-PPR points. Houston’s line upgrades (Tytus Howard healthy, LaDarius Henderson drafted) and Bobby Slowik’s wide-zone scheme that produced the league’s 4th-highest EPA per rush in 2023 both set up more efficient touches. With Dameon Pierce relegated to backup duty, Hartitz expects 270-plus carries and a secure third-down role, projecting Mixon for double-digit scores in an offense that scored 2.4 points per drive with C.J. Stroud. He said drafters shouldn’t be shocked if Mixon finishes as a top-10 back despite going 40th overall.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Joe Mixon “just a good value” after landing him in the sixth round of an Eliminator draft. He emphasized that Houston’s depth chart is thin—"they bring in Woody Marks" is the only real competition—and expects Mixon to hold a three-down role out of the gate. Pat likes parking volume backs on Eliminator rosters because the contest’s earliest multi-team cuts demand weekly floor production. Mixon’s projected workload inside a C.J. Stroud offense that finished top-ten in yards per drive last season gives Pat confidence the veteran can post survivable scores until the field narrows.

Pete Overzet predicted that Joe Mixon could easily jump an entire round and wind up going ahead of Zay Flowers and DJ Moore in upcoming Best Ball Mania rooms. He hears a growing drumbeat of "over-valued" talk around both wideouts while Mixon continues to benefit from bullish chatter after landing in Houston. With negative sentiment pushing the receivers down and nothing but quiet optimism propping Mixon up, Overzet would not be shocked if their ADPs simply flip. His actionable takeaway: grab Mixon now while he still sits behind those two in drafts before the market correction makes the veteran back a mid-fourth-round pick.

Andy Holloway advised dynasty managers who are rebuilding to keep Joe Mixon through the summer, ride the inevitable early-season volume, and then shop him once injuries hit contenders. Holloway expects Mixon to open 2025 with 15-plus touches a week simply because no other Texans back is proven, which could spike him into the RB1 ranks over the first month. That production—combined with the league’s annual rash of running-back injuries—should make a 29-year-old Mixon look far more appealing to win-now teams at the trade deadline than he does in June. Holloway still views Mixon as a one-year rental and warned that any hint of efficiency from a younger back could slash his workload, so the optimal play is to cash out when Mixon is sitting inside the top-10 scorers rather than moving him now at a discount.

Mike Wright advised dumping Joe Mixon while he still carries RB1 optics after landing in Houston. Mixon turns 29 this season and has crossed the 1,800-carry milestone—Wright’s historical red flag for sudden collapse. Efficiency metrics from 2024 paint a bleak picture: among 46 qualified backs he ranked 39th in stuffed-carry rate, 38th in missed-tackle forced rate, and 41st in zone-run success. Cincinnati volume masked the decline, but Wright doubts the Texans will tolerate 3.5 YPC if a younger back flashes. He called Mixon a "one-year rental" whose startup price could vanish overnight and said he’d accept a 2025 1st or pivot to Travis Etienne straight up. The thesis: cash out before the coaching staff realizes the tread is gone and Mixon’s touch monopoly evaporates.

Pete Overzet grabbed Joe Mixon half a round past ADP and called him a clear "draft winner" after Houston declined to add meaningful backfield competition. With only late-round rookie Woody Marks sitting behind him, Mixon projects for the same 18-20 touch workload that produced 1,410 scrimmage yards and 12 scores last year. Pete expects that projected volume in C.J. Stroud’s up-tempo offense to keep Mixon planted inside weekly RB1 ranks, making his current fifth-round best-ball price a bargain that will tighten once projection season kicks in.

Pat Kerrane said he is happily scooping Joe Mixon at the four-five turn because the market is repeating last year’s mistake of fading productive veteran bell-cows. Kerrane rattled off Mixon’s 2024 spike weeks—26.8, 27.2, 26.4, 23.4, a 35.3 bomb, and 21.9—plus 17.9 and 18.0 in the fantasy playoffs, noting those totals regularly contended for the overall RB1 slot while wide receivers drafted in the same pocket were merely giving managers “usable” WR3 lines. Houston’s only backfield addition was Woody Marks, whom Kerrane labeled a pure third-down specialist who leaves early-down and goal-line work untouched. With C.J. Stroud piloting a top-10 offense, Kerrane expects Mixon to clear 240 touches and remain a weekly TD favorite despite the Texans’ shaky offensive line. Structurally, Mixon fits his preferred “sandwich” build: open WR-heavy, lock in Trey McBride or Brock Bowers, then let Mixon serve as RB1 before adding cheaper upside plays like TreVeyon Henderson later. He believes the opportunity cost at wide receiver after Round 3 is so thin that Mixon is a clear value well into the 40s.

Erik Beimfohr said Joe Mixon’s off-season "was about as good as it gets" for a veteran running back. Houston handed Mixon real money, then only traded a future third-rounder for Woody Marks, a player Beimfohr labeled "a straight-up third-down back" who will not threaten early-down or goal-line work. With Bobby Slowik’s offense expected to be even more potent in C.J. Stroud’s second year, Beimfohr projected fewer low-value plunge carries but more red-zone trips and higher scoring equity. He still expects Mixon to clear 240 touches, dominate inside the five, and flirt with double-digit TDs. At a late-4th/early-5th ADP in Best Ball lobbies, Beimfohr thinks drafters are getting a discounted bell-cow tied to an ascending offense and would take him a full round ahead of current cost.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Joe Mixon is one of the easiest clicks on the board whenever he drifts into the mid-fifth or even sixth round of Best Ball Mania drafts. Mixon just cleared the depth-chart competition in Houston— the Texans ignored running back in free agency and only added rookie Woody Marks as a passing-down change-up— then immediately received a three-year extension that locks him in as the staff’s every-down back. Pat noted that DeMeco Ryans’ offense finished 12th in red-zone trips and returns all five starting linemen while adding top-50 pick Blake Fisher at right tackle, giving Mixon a clean path to 275+ touches. The veteran’s stable weekly floor, plus the freedom he provides drafters to chase late-round rookie upside at RB2, makes him a “set-and-forget anchor” who is still going 8-10 picks too late in sharp rooms.

Jason Moore labeled Joe Mixon a "found pick" after noticing the fantasy community overreacting to his late‑season fade. Through Week 11 Mixon was the overall RB1, fueled by 4.2 red‑zone opportunities per game—second only to Kyren Williams. Production cratered once Houston lost Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, reducing red‑zone trips, and Mixon battled a high‑ankle sprain down the stretch. None of that changes his 2025 outlook: the Texans already extended Mixon, have no financial incentive to add competition, and project to field a top‑10 offense with their receivers healthy. Moore expects 275‑plus touches and double‑digit TDs, ranking Mixon as a mid‑range RB1 who is currently priced like a back‑end RB2 in both season‑long and best‑ball formats.