Dalton Wasserman backed Josh Allen over 6.5 rush attempts at -114 on FanDuel. He framed Bills-Jets as a potential shootout featuring two explosive offenses and shaky defenses. New York played man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in Week 1, a look that historically triggers Allen scrambles. Buffalo also leads the league in designed quarterback sneaks and finishes every half with kneel-downs that count as rushes. Those built-in plays plus freelance runs push the PFF projection past seven carries, giving Wasserman confidence in the over.

Bill Harrelson Picks recommended the "no interception" prop on Josh Allen. He highlighted Allen’s improved ball security: only six total INTs last season and a 75 % hit rate on the ‘no-pick’ prop (threw an interception in just 5 of 20 games). The quarterback has a recent 8-of-10 streak protecting the football and did not throw a pick in either meeting with Baltimore last year, including the 35-10 loss where he was forced to air it out. Even though he respects Baltimore’s elite secondary, Harrelson trusts the reigning MVP in a season-opening prime-time spot to avoid turnovers, making the plus-money side of the prop attractive.

Larry Hartstein played Josh Allen’s season-long passing yards under, citing Joe Brady’s shift to 50 % run rate after taking over the offense in November 2023. The Bills finished fourth in rush attempts and Allen still barely approached the posted total while playing all 17 games. With rookie Keon Coleman headlining an inexperienced receiver room, Khalil Shakir nicked up, and an easy schedule that could lead to early blowouts—and thus fewer late-game throws or even late-season rest—Hartstein expects Buffalo to double down on its successful ground-heavy approach, keeping Allen short of the market number.

Warren Sharp highlighted Josh Allen’s league-best sack-avoidance rate: only 10.9 % of pressures have turned into sacks the past two seasons. Drives without a sack score points 40 % of the time (25 % TDs, 2.2 PPD) versus 25 % with a single sack (8 % TDs, 1.1 PPD). Allen’s escapability preserves drives, boosts play volume and keeps Buffalo’s scoring floor sky-high—critical edges for passing-yard props, DFS cash builds, and season-long confidence. Sharp advises leaning overs on Allen’s yardage/TD props and trusting Bills skill players because the quarterback himself mitigates negative plays that kill fantasy points and betting overs.

Brandon Anderson said you can keep treating Josh Allen as a set-and-forget fantasy anchor because Buffalo’s offensive floor has barely moved in three seasons. The Bills have finished top-3 in offensive DVOA each of the last three years, and Anderson credited Joe Brady’s post-mid-season scheme tweak for cutting Allen’s turnover-worthy plays by mixing in more designed power runs. That balance reduced the weekly hit rate on Allen while preserving his 30-plus TD ceiling, leading Anderson to label Buffalo a "safe number-two" offense behind only one team. The takeaway: draft or pay DFS premiums with confidence; the structure is too stable to fail unless Allen misses time.

Brandon Anderson placed Buffalo sixth because, while the unit’s continuity is impressive, he does not view the talent as elite. The Bills have lost just one combined game to O-line injury over two seasons—‘insane luck’ in Anderson’s words—and their profiles are buoyed by Josh Allen’s escapability. He ranked the group 14th last year and 17th two years ago and still sees it as ‘a middle-of-the-pack sort of line that’s stuck together.’ Any regression in injury fortune could expose the lack of high-end blockers. Bettors should be skeptical of Buffalo finishing top-three in protection metrics, and DFS players should not over-pay for Bills running backs purely off last year’s results.

Rob Coakley noted that grabbing Josh Allen early not only secures elite quarterback scoring but also "stresses the other drafters." In his experience, an Allen selection from the three-slot sparks a quarterback run—the DraftKings "red wedding" that usually begins in Round 7—pushing quality wide receivers and running backs down the board. Because an Allen roster rarely needs a third quarterback, the room’s over-reaction can create extra value at other positions while you remain at a lean two-QB construction.

Erik Beimfohr said that in the DraftKings $555 Best Ball tournament, which advances only 50 teams to the Week-17 final, he would rather grab Josh Allen in Round 3 than pivot to Chase Brown. Beimfohr argued that early-round uniqueness matters far less in a small final than in a mass-entry contest; what wins is raw ceiling and roster flexibility. Drafting Allen locks in a weekly 30-point quarterback, keeps the build to two QBs, and sets up an inexpensive Round-8 stack with Keon Coleman. It also lets the roster continue hammering wide receiver in Rounds 4-6 behind Jahmyr Gibbs and Trey McBride. In his view, Allen ‘unlocks everything’ and produces a more powerful roster than the Gibbs + Chase Brown + McBride detour, even if that combination would be rarer.

Ian Hartitz said Josh Allen has not finished outside the top-two fantasy quarterbacks since 2020 and remains the Bills’ featured option near the goal line, logging 93 fantasy points from inside-five rushes the past two years. Hartitz dismissed concerns about OC Joe Brady’s run-first tendencies because Allen himself is the short-yardage back, keeping 50-total-TD upside firmly in play. He ranked Allen as QB1 overall and encouraged drafters to treat him as a slam-dunk early-round anchor in season-long formats.

Jaosn Moore said he was thrilled to grab Josh Allen at the 3-4 turn because the quarterback usually goes in round two. Moore argued that spending that pick on Allen costs you only running backs such as Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker— players he called "talented but full of workload question marks." By locking in Allen’s weekly top-3 ceiling and dual-threat floor while other managers chase volatile backs and wideouts, Moore believes drafters gain a structural edge in season-long leagues.

Kyle Purviance said Josh Allen is the only early-round quarterback he is willing to pay up for, and a lingering James Cook holdout would only strengthen that stance. Allen already produced 12 rushing TDs, 531 rushing yards, 3,700 passing yards and 28 passing TDs last season while trimming interceptions, yet Buffalo still failed to add "premier weapons"—Purviance called the receiving corps “pure shit.” That vacuum funnels more work back to Allen, and if Cook’s contract dispute forces him to miss time, the quarterback’s red-zone rushing share could climb back toward the 18-TD spike year Purviance referenced. With Keon Coleman progressing, Khalil Shakir settled in the intermediate game and Dalton Kincaid fully recovered from a PCL injury, Purviance believes Allen will once again “do more with less” and finish as the overall QB1.

Best Ball Guy said the optimal way to attack Buffalo is to take Josh Allen by himself and skip the wideouts. His reasoning was that Allen consistently spreads targets, making week-to-week volume for any individual Bills receiver unpredictable, while Allen’s dual-threat profile still captures every passing and rushing touchdown the offense scores. In a small-slate sprint contest where advancing ceilings matter more than correlated stacks, BBG argued Allen’s weekly 35-point upside is intact even without pairing him, and the opportunity cost of guessing wrong on WR market share is too high.

Best Ball Guy reminded listeners that "you don't even really want the Bills receivers." His preferred best-ball approach is to take Josh Allen on his own and let the quarterback’s rushing production plus broad target distribution carry the weekly ceiling. Forgoing Buffalo wideouts frees roster spots for higher-upside picks elsewhere while still capturing Allen’s elite fantasy floor and spike-week potential.

Josh said he is drafting Josh Allen as his 27th overall player, a full tier ahead of market and one spot in front of Lamar Jackson. Allen has finished QB3, QB1, QB2, QB1 and QB2 in points-per-game since 2020. Josh stressed that Allen utterly owns the red-zone, posting 27 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons – 11 of them from the one-yard line – and none of that is disappearing with the entire offensive line returning intact. He noted the Bills star has evolved into a disciplined pocket passer who now takes the underneath throws, cuts down interceptions and avoids sacks while still wielding "super-human" athleticism. Even if Allen falls back to "only" 7–8 rushing TDs instead of the 12-15 he has lived at, Josh projects a locked-in top-three fantasy finish. A breakout from any of Buffalo’s new pass-catcher investments (Dalton Kincaid, Josh Palmer, Keon Coleman) would be pure upside gravy, so Josh is happy to click Allen whenever early-round skill players dry up.

Dwain McFarland said Josh Allen is the premier Round 3 building block at quarterback. Allen has finished QB1-2 in fantasy points per game for five straight seasons, posting 26.0, 24.2 and 23.8 PPG most recently. McFarland noted that Buffalo’s Dropback Rate Over Expectation slid from +5.8 % in 2022 to –1.8 % in 2024 and passing yards per game fell from 268 to 233, yet Allen’s fantasy floor stayed intact thanks to a 15 % designed-rush share, 7 % scramble rate and a league-best 37 % share of team carries inside the five. He has scored 7, 15 and 12 rushing TDs the last three years and will again operate behind an elite offensive line. With many Round 3 skill players carrying role or injury concerns, McFarland advised taking Allen around pick 30 for a bankable 23-point median and 28.9-point ceiling.

Jason Moore warned drafters that Josh Allen’s late-second ADP is "just not a value." Buffalo’s new run-heavy philosophy held Allen to 3,700 passing yards last season, and his weekly bust rate ballooned to 25% after sitting at just 6% the year before. Although Allen still projects for double-digit rushing touchdowns, Moore expects only mid-500 rushing yards while Lamar Jackson "could push a thousand" and is available a few picks later. Moore advised passing on Allen unless he slides at least a round, preferring either Lamar or an elite RB/WR in the same draft window.

Jason Moore spotlighted a PrizePicks season-long prop listing Josh Allen at 27.5 passing touchdowns and immediately took the over. Allen has eclipsed that mark in six straight seasons, never dipping below 28 since 2019, despite Buffalo routinely finishing top-five in quarterback rushing scores. Moore noted nothing in Buffalo’s offense or red-zone tendencies suggests regression, making the 27.5 line a clear value for bettors looking to lock in a plus-EV preseason ticket.

Donabedian suggested combining two of three quarterback stacks that share a bye to slash roster overlap, citing a Josh Allen–Lamar Jackson pairing as a prime example. Both signal-callers rest Week 7, and their Round 3-4 ADPs plus the double-bye scare mean very few drafters click both. While the construction slightly lowers advancement odds, any Buffalo/Baltimore core that survives the regular season wields enormous Week 16-17 ceiling because of dual MVP-caliber rush-pass upside. He cautioned to balance the roster with a third stack on a different bye (e.g., Herbert-McConkey) so the team is not completely punted in a single week.

Kevin Szafraniec said Josh Allen remains the safest of the elite fantasy quarterbacks and argued that 2025 could finally be the season he overtakes Patrick Mahomes. Szafraniec pointed out that Buffalo plans to stick with its 2024 offensive blueprint—one that already supported Allen’s elite production even without a true star pass catcher. The Bills have captured five straight AFC East titles during Allen’s run, a fact Szafraniec cites as evidence of organizational and schematic stability. With that continuity intact, he believes Allen’s weekly floor and season-long ceiling remain unmatched, making him a foundational pick in Season-Long formats and a core exposure in Best Ball tournaments.

Nick Whalen said Josh Allen is the single safest way to spend an early pick at quarterback. Allen has finished as a top-3 fantasy QB in five straight seasons and averages roughly 40-45 combined touchdowns every year thanks to a stable mix of passing and red-zone rushing scores. Despite his reckless running style he has barely missed time, giving managers a uniquely high floor. Whalen noted the Bills changed almost nothing schematically, will again run a receiver-by-committee attack, and have one of the league’s most forgiving schedules, so he expects Allen to crank out his usual elite weekly production with minimal risk.

Ian Hartitz said drafters who do not plan on churning waivers or making sharp trades should simply pay up for Josh Allen. His point was that locking in 25-plus fantasy points most weeks eliminates streaming headaches and gives a baked-in edge over rosters platooning QB15-type options. Hartitz lumped Allen into a tiny first tier—alongside Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jaden Daniels and (in six-point-pass-TD formats) Joe Burrow—arguing the weekly ceiling/floor combo those names provide is meaningfully different from the next dozen quarterbacks.

Andrew Avery countered that pairing Josh Allen at +600 for MVP with a Bills Super Bowl future creates an attractive correlated payout. Avery highlighted that several books now offer MVP-championship combo tickets and that Buffalo’s 2025 schedule is unusually soft for a team coming off a division title. With Allen likely to post gaudier counting stats against that slate and media narratives rewarding a bounce-back passing season, Avery argued the ceiling outcome is better captured through the combo market than the straight 6-to-1 MVP ticket alone.

Tony Farmer advised bettors to fade Josh Allen’s current +550 to +600 MVP price. Farmer pointed out that Allen’s traditional passing numbers pulled back last season, making it unlikely that voters reward a similar statistical line two years in a row. While acknowledging Allen’s dual-threat impact, Farmer believes narrative fatigue and the difficulty of going back-to-back after already winning the award make the implied 15–17% probability too steep. He prefers allocating bankroll elsewhere in preseason awards markets.

Ben Gretch warned that Josh Allen no longer belongs in the same fantasy tier as Lamar Jackson or Jaden Daniels because Buffalo’s offense is slowing down. Under Joe Brady the Bills averaged only 60.3 plays per game in 2023—below the league mean of roughly 62–63 for the first time since 2018—and posted a negative pass rate over expected down the stretch. Gretch expects that run-leaning, clock-bleeding approach to continue, projecting materially fewer dropbacks and red-zone snaps than the tempo-driven Ravens and Commanders. While Allen’s double-digit rushing-TD ability keeps his floor intact, the diminished play volume makes it “a lot harder” for him to match the 35-point eruptions Daniels and Jackson can generate, especially at Allen’s higher ADP in Best Ball tournaments.

Jason Moore warned that paying a late-second-round price for Josh Allen is dangerous because of the opportunity cost at other starting positions. In current drafts drafters must pass on workhorse backs such as Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor or an elite tight end like Trey McBride to secure Allen. Moore is still confident Allen will finish as an elite fantasy quarterback, but he emphasized that the selection only truly pays off when the QB separates by multiple points per game—as Lamar Jackson did last season. Because the rushing-QB cheat code can also be found later—he specifically cited Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts going several picks cheaper—Moore prefers to take the high-floor skill players in round two and target his quarterback in the third or fourth, effectively fading Josh Allen at current ADP.

Nick Holz said fantasy managers should steer clear of Josh Allen at his current 2025 ADP of 22 overall (early round-2 in 12-team formats). Holz argued Allen would need a historic campaign—think Aaron Rodgers 2011, Peyton Manning 2013/14, or Patrick Mahomes 2018—to pay off that slot. He noted Allen’s 2024 passing yardage and touchdown totals were both down from his career norms, and even his rushing yardage slipped despite a career-high 15 rushing scores masking the decline. Holz prefers Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts, all of whom go later and boast stronger supporting casts. DraftKings has Allen’s rushing-TD prop at 10.5, signaling sportsbooks also expect regression. With a shrinking statistical cushion and a sky-high draft cost, Holz is fading Allen in season-long drafts.

Alex "PropStarz" Christenson urged bettors to pass on Josh Allen at +600 to repeat as MVP. He stressed how rarely voters crown back-to-back winners and pointed out that Allen must fend off Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes in a loaded quarterback field. To stay in the mix, Allen would need to top last year’s hyper-efficient campaign—he sliced interceptions from 22 to 6 while steering an offense that averaged more than 3.0 points per drive—an improvement PropStarz finds unlikely. With narrative fatigue and fierce competition, he views the +600 price as lacking value.

Dwain McFarland said Josh Allen remains the premier floor-plus-ceiling quarterback and is worth a Round-3 pick in every 2025 season-long or best-ball draft. Allen has averaged 24.7 fantasy PPG since 2022, with four straight overall QB1 finishes before last year’s QB2 result. Even under Joe Brady’s more balanced attack (-1.8% drop-back rate over expectation in 2024), Allen still posted 233 passing yards and 15% of Buffalo’s designed rushes, plus an 11% scramble rate. The Bills have given him 37–48% of red-zone carries inside the 5 the past three seasons, producing 7, 15 and 12 rushing TDs. McFarland’s floor/median/ceiling model spits 18.8/23.0/28.9 PPG. Behind PFF’s No.3 O-line and with youthful receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid still having breakout potential, McFarland calls Allen “one of the safest picks on the board” and a priority when the elite WR tier dries up.

Ryan Heath said Josh Allen remains one of the safest league-winner bets in 2025 drafts. Allen is part of the "big three" signal-callers who have produced a league-winning playoff rate in five of the six seasons they have been selected in Rounds 3-4. Heath’s database shows every quarterback league winner since 2017 logged at least 55 rush attempts, and 62 percent cleared 100. Allen easily checks that box, averaging 108 carries and 9 rushing TDs per year during his career. With Buffalo now building its passing game around his legs and explosive outside-structure throws, Heath believes passing-TD variance is a bonus, not a requirement. Because the wide-receiver tier break hits right after Round 2, Heath prefers locking in Allen’s dual-threat ceiling in the early third, then attacking cheaper rookie WR values later on.

Best Ball Guy said the rumored Von Miller trade to Washington would weaken Buffalo’s defense and could ‘force them to throw a little bit more.’ Buffalo leaned run-heavy last year, but a softer stop unit would create shoot-out scripts that spike Josh Allen’s weekly pass attempts. BBG framed it as a quiet buy signal on the entire passing stack—Allen, rookie wideout Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid—because extra volume plus Allen’s dual-threat TD equity super-charges ceiling weeks in Underdog Superflex tournaments.

Davis Mattek said the crazy quarterback inflation on DraftKings actually boosts the relative value of true studs like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. Mid-tier passers—Joe Burrow still going in the 70s, Tua Tagovailoa and Bryce Young pushed up near pick 100, Aaron Rodgers inside the top 170, even Russell Wilson routinely drafted—have closed the ADP gap so much that spending a fourth- or fifth-rounder on Allen feels cheap by comparison. Mattek reminded listeners that elite QBs are the ones most likely to hit DK’s 300-yard passing bonus and, in the case of Allen, Daniels or Lamar, the 100-yard rushing bonus as well. The Sidekick Sims he runs keep spitting out higher win rates for elite-QB builds because you spend the same draft capital as a panicked room will soon spend on a Stroud or Maye tier anyway. His takeaway: if an Allen/Hurts tier quarterback slides a half round below listed ADP, smash the button and figure out the rest of the build later.

Davis Mattek mocked drafters who click Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba or similar Round-3/4 wideouts while an elite quarterback like Josh Allen is on the board. He argued Allen’s ceiling-weighted VORP crushes what a perennial WR22 brings, especially in half-PPR best-ball playoff weeks. Allen sometimes slides to picks 38-40, handing drafters a weekly 25-point anchor while the room debates uncertain volume receivers tied to run-first teams. Mattek is locking in Allen—and the entire top QB tier—whenever ADP allows, confident cheaper late-round wideouts can replace the flex points those middling receivers provide far more easily than late quarterbacks can replicate Allen.

Hayden Winks selected Josh Allen as his outright QB1, noting the Bills star has finished QB3, QB1, QB2, QB1 and QB2 in points per game since 2020 even without an "alpha" pass catcher. Under Joe Brady, Allen has improved ball security (fewer sacks and INTs) while keeping the red-zone dominance that drives fantasy scoring: 27 rushing TDs over the last two seasons, including 11 one-yard plunges, plus league-leading red-zone fantasy points in three of the past four years. Winks emphasized Buffalo’s offensive continuity— all five starting linemen return— and cited Allen’s Week 14 eruption (13th-best half-PPR game by any player since 1962) as proof of week-winning upside. The path to separating from Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts is sustaining those short-yardage TDs, something the Tush-Push-lite Bills have already shown they will keep feeding him.

Sam Monson said Josh Allen should be the first quarterback off the board in season-long fantasy and any QB-centric futures market. Monson pointed to Allen’s "freak-show" arm talent, short-yardage rushing "cheat code" that routinely converts sneaks into touchdowns, and one of the NFL’s lowest pressure-to-sack rates – a combination that maximizes both floor and ceiling. He added that Allen’s underlying analytics profile is "utterly absurd," reinforcing that the Bills signal-caller has out-performed Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson over the past two seasons. Monson’s takeaway: prioritize Allen over Mahomes in drafts and MVP odds because the blend of elite passing splash plays plus bankable rushing production is unmatched right now.

Billy Jones said Josh Allen is the only quarterback you need on many Best Ball Mania or Weekly Winners rosters. Jones stressed that quarterback scoring is "super, super connected to advance rate," and Allen supplies both a league-high floor and ceiling. He cited Allen’s weekly top-5 finish rate (34% last season) and rushing touchdown dominance—27 scores inside the five over the past three years—as reasons he can single-handedly drag a roster through the regular-season pods. Jones also reminded drafters that the Bills face playoff-style stakes down the stretch as they jockey with Kansas City for AFC home-field advantage, giving Allen a realistic shot at three straight 30-point outputs in Weeks 15-17. Cold-weather worries are irrelevant for a Wyoming native who has averaged 26.7 fantasy points in games below 35°F. Stack partners are optional, but a cheap add like Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid can juice correlation without forcing a second quarterback.

Davis Mattek said that when you open a best-ball draft with only one early wideout you have to “project for a lot of quarterback points.” He took Josh Allen in the third round and immediately planned to pair him with another elite option – Jayden Daniels if available, or Lamar Jackson/Jalen Hurts if they slipped – because the duo’s different bye weeks and easy stacking partners maximize weekly scoring. Mattek expects an Allen–Daniels combo to clear 30 fantasy points most weeks, giving a hero-WR roster the floor and ceiling it needs while allowing him to ignore the wide-receiver position for several rounds.

Calling it ‘ludicrous,’ Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told listeners to auto-click Josh Allen any time he slips into the 40s of drafts. At that price you’re landing a quarterback who has finished top-3 in fantasy points per game four straight seasons and has averaged 27.4 combined pass-plus-rush TDs during Weeks 15-17 in his career—exactly when Best Ball Mania titles are decided. Pat argued drafters are over-reacting to Buffalo’s offseason changes while simultaneously reaching for lower-ceiling QBs later. He sees Allen’s rushing floor (8.0 carries and 0.55 TDs per game since 2020) plus proven 35-point weekly ceiling as unmatched leverage in the early-fourth round.

Davis Mattek argued that you do not have to force a Bills pass-catcher whenever you draft Josh Allen in Underdog’s Eliminator. He pulled up Allen’s 2023 blow-up game against the Rams— the single largest quarterback fantasy score of the year— and noted that the top Buffalo receiver in that contest was Khalil Shakir with only 19.6 points. Mattek said the stat illustrates Allen’s unique ceiling: his rushing production and willingness to spread targets mean he can post 35-plus on his own, so the usual correlation tax is optional. Mattek is comfortable taking Allen as a naked QB1 (his only bring-back was RB Ray Davis in this draft) and using the freed roster spots on higher-upside one-off plays from other teams.

Davis Mattek said you should snap-take Josh Allen whenever he slips to the late-second/early-third round in Underdog’s Eliminator because the weekly, head-to-head format magnifies elite quarterback spike weeks. Allen normally costs a mid-second pick but occasionally drifts when drafters hammer running backs early; Mattek called that ADP slide “a huge value.” He added that Allen’s dual-threat profile has produced 32 games of 28-plus fantasy points since 2020—more than any QB over that span—so a single 40-point eruption can single-handedly win an Eliminator matchup and let you coast through the early payout weeks (money starts in Week 4). Mattek also liked the natural AFC East mini-correlation on Allen teams because most Josh drafters are selecting Dolphins RB Devon Achane or Jets RB Breece Hall at the 2-3 turn, combinations that will be relatively unique in a contest where duplicated studs dampen upside. Bottom line: if Allen falls past ADP, take him and enjoy the weekly floor/ceiling edge that cheaper quarterbacks simply cannot match in a no-bad-weeks structure.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound warned that drafters are making a mistake taking Josh Allen second or third overall in Underdog’s new Sprint contest. He noted that Allen’s ADP in normal Best Ball Mania rooms is still in the low-30s, and the only reason he is rocketing up the Sprint boards is because a fresh CSV rank file pushed quarterbacks to the very top of the queue. Pat called the early-round premium "flat-out wrong" and pointed out that he personally scooped Allen at pick 31 in a slow draft just last week, locking in the exact same weekly ceiling while preserving a first-round pick for a true difference-maker at another position. His advice: wait for the market to settle and only click Allen once he slides at least a full round past his BBM ADP—around 30–34 overall—so you capture closing-line value and avoid sacrificing an elite wideout or running back.

Pete Overzet told drafters not to sweat stacking when it comes to Josh Allen. He noted Allen accounted for 42% of Buffalo’s rushing touchdowns and spread targets among nine different pass-catchers last season, making expensive pairings like Dalton Kincaid unnecessary. Overzet is comfortable taking Allen in Round 4 and filling correlation later with cheap pieces such as Khalil Shakir or rookie RB Ray Davis. The upside of a 28-point median in Week 17 outweighs any lost correlation EV, and selecting Allen early frees drafters to pound running back value in the Round 9-11 pocket where they’d normally be taking their first QB.

Jon Warner questioned Josh Allen’s current 6.3 average draft slot in the Sprint and advised passing on him at that price. Warner noted the same ADP spike happened last year before correcting and argued the Sprint’s rotisserie playoff format still demands ceiling games, making the opportunity cost of skipping elite RBs and WRs too steep. In a 216-player pool you can grab starting backs like Tony Pollard in Round 6, something you forfeit if you spend that pick on a onesie. Buffalo’s neutral Week 16-18 schedule offers no clear matchup advantage, so Warner believes Allen belongs closer to the late-second round rather than the mid-first.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafters should pounce on Josh Allen any time he slips past pick 10 in Underdog’s $20 Sprint. Allen’s Sprint ADP is currently 3-4 overall, yet Pat flagged a slow draft where the Bills QB lasted to pick 31 and called it “crazy value.” He credited the slide to auto-drafters and unsettled early-contest ADPs, noting Allen opened at 2.7. Pat expects the market to correct once rooms sharpen, so scooping Allen now provides a full round of closing line value on a dual-threat quarterback who has already logged two QB1 overall finishes in the last four seasons.

Hayden Winks said drafters should be pouncing on Josh Allen any time he slides a half-round past ADP because the elite-QB tier is cheaper than ever. In previous Best Ball summers Allen and Lamar Jackson were tethered to first- or second-round pass catchers (Stefon Diggs, Mark Andrews) that artificially boosted their cost; with those receivers now going later, the quarterbacks themselves have drifted into the late third/early fourth despite no change in weekly ceiling. Winks pointed out that Allen finishes top-25 in points over replacement every season and routinely end-zones 30-plus touchdowns through the air and on the ground. Without a Round-1 tax, Allen becomes a structural smash—especially on builds that start WR-WR or WR-RB—because you secure the highest median QB scorer while the room chases uncertain stacks. Winks labeled it a perfect leverage play on Burrow/Chase rooms that rarely roster Allen.

Billy Jones said he is perfectly comfortable clicking Josh Allen as early as pick 40—seven spots past ADP but still the fourth round in an 18-round Best Ball Mania room. Jones explained that he wants roughly 12-13 percent exposure to Allen because 2024 draft rooms are littered with "bench-risk" quarterbacks who come off the board after pick 150. With more teams inserting injury clauses and back-loaded guarantees, Jones expects several late-round QBs to be parking-lot deactivated by fantasy playoff weeks. Paying up for Allen removes that headache while still giving drafters access to the league’s No. 1 per-game scorer at the position and a weekly rushing-TD ceiling that no other early QB besides Jalen Hurts can match. In his view, the single extra roster spot you gain by stopping at two quarterbacks is worth the modest opportunity cost of taking Allen in the fourth.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafters should pounce whenever Josh Allen slides into the mid-fourth round of Best Ball Mania 6. He argued Underdog’s new 20-round format amplifies the edge of an elite quarterback because managers who land Allen can confidently stop at two passers, freeing an extra late-round pick for upside receivers or running backs. Pat noted Allen’s five consecutive top-2 fantasy finishes and league-best 7.8 designed rush attempts per game as proof his weekly ceiling is unmatched. With sharp rooms chasing wide-receiver avalanche builds, Allen is slipping “half a round or more,” a discount Pat believes will evaporate once casual summer drafters arrive.