Nick Whalen said Josh Allen is the single safest way to spend an early pick at quarterback. Allen has finished as a top-3 fantasy QB in five straight seasons and averages roughly 40-45 combined touchdowns every year thanks to a stable mix of passing and red-zone rushing scores. Despite his reckless running style he has barely missed time, giving managers a uniquely high floor. Whalen noted the Bills changed almost nothing schematically, will again run a receiver-by-committee attack, and have one of the league’s most forgiving schedules, so he expects Allen to crank out his usual elite weekly production with minimal risk.

Ian Hartitz said drafters who do not plan on churning waivers or making sharp trades should simply pay up for Josh Allen. His point was that locking in 25-plus fantasy points most weeks eliminates streaming headaches and gives a baked-in edge over rosters platooning QB15-type options. Hartitz lumped Allen into a tiny first tier—alongside Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jaden Daniels and (in six-point-pass-TD formats) Joe Burrow—arguing the weekly ceiling/floor combo those names provide is meaningfully different from the next dozen quarterbacks.

Andrew Avery countered that pairing Josh Allen at +600 for MVP with a Bills Super Bowl future creates an attractive correlated payout. Avery highlighted that several books now offer MVP-championship combo tickets and that Buffalo’s 2025 schedule is unusually soft for a team coming off a division title. With Allen likely to post gaudier counting stats against that slate and media narratives rewarding a bounce-back passing season, Avery argued the ceiling outcome is better captured through the combo market than the straight 6-to-1 MVP ticket alone.

Tony Farmer advised bettors to fade Josh Allen’s current +550 to +600 MVP price. Farmer pointed out that Allen’s traditional passing numbers pulled back last season, making it unlikely that voters reward a similar statistical line two years in a row. While acknowledging Allen’s dual-threat impact, Farmer believes narrative fatigue and the difficulty of going back-to-back after already winning the award make the implied 15–17% probability too steep. He prefers allocating bankroll elsewhere in preseason awards markets.

Ben Gretch warned that Josh Allen no longer belongs in the same fantasy tier as Lamar Jackson or Jaden Daniels because Buffalo’s offense is slowing down. Under Joe Brady the Bills averaged only 60.3 plays per game in 2023—below the league mean of roughly 62–63 for the first time since 2018—and posted a negative pass rate over expected down the stretch. Gretch expects that run-leaning, clock-bleeding approach to continue, projecting materially fewer dropbacks and red-zone snaps than the tempo-driven Ravens and Commanders. While Allen’s double-digit rushing-TD ability keeps his floor intact, the diminished play volume makes it “a lot harder” for him to match the 35-point eruptions Daniels and Jackson can generate, especially at Allen’s higher ADP in Best Ball tournaments.

Jason Moore warned that paying a late-second-round price for Josh Allen is dangerous because of the opportunity cost at other starting positions. In current drafts drafters must pass on workhorse backs such as Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor or an elite tight end like Trey McBride to secure Allen. Moore is still confident Allen will finish as an elite fantasy quarterback, but he emphasized that the selection only truly pays off when the QB separates by multiple points per game—as Lamar Jackson did last season. Because the rushing-QB cheat code can also be found later—he specifically cited Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts going several picks cheaper—Moore prefers to take the high-floor skill players in round two and target his quarterback in the third or fourth, effectively fading Josh Allen at current ADP.

Nick Holz said fantasy managers should steer clear of Josh Allen at his current 2025 ADP of 22 overall (early round-2 in 12-team formats). Holz argued Allen would need a historic campaign—think Aaron Rodgers 2011, Peyton Manning 2013/14, or Patrick Mahomes 2018—to pay off that slot. He noted Allen’s 2024 passing yardage and touchdown totals were both down from his career norms, and even his rushing yardage slipped despite a career-high 15 rushing scores masking the decline. Holz prefers Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts, all of whom go later and boast stronger supporting casts. DraftKings has Allen’s rushing-TD prop at 10.5, signaling sportsbooks also expect regression. With a shrinking statistical cushion and a sky-high draft cost, Holz is fading Allen in season-long drafts.

Alex "PropStarz" Christenson urged bettors to pass on Josh Allen at +600 to repeat as MVP. He stressed how rarely voters crown back-to-back winners and pointed out that Allen must fend off Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes in a loaded quarterback field. To stay in the mix, Allen would need to top last year’s hyper-efficient campaign—he sliced interceptions from 22 to 6 while steering an offense that averaged more than 3.0 points per drive—an improvement PropStarz finds unlikely. With narrative fatigue and fierce competition, he views the +600 price as lacking value.

Dwain McFarland said Josh Allen remains the premier floor-plus-ceiling quarterback and is worth a Round-3 pick in every 2025 season-long or best-ball draft. Allen has averaged 24.7 fantasy PPG since 2022, with four straight overall QB1 finishes before last year’s QB2 result. Even under Joe Brady’s more balanced attack (-1.8% drop-back rate over expectation in 2024), Allen still posted 233 passing yards and 15% of Buffalo’s designed rushes, plus an 11% scramble rate. The Bills have given him 37–48% of red-zone carries inside the 5 the past three seasons, producing 7, 15 and 12 rushing TDs. McFarland’s floor/median/ceiling model spits 18.8/23.0/28.9 PPG. Behind PFF’s No.3 O-line and with youthful receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid still having breakout potential, McFarland calls Allen “one of the safest picks on the board” and a priority when the elite WR tier dries up.

Ryan Heath said Josh Allen remains one of the safest league-winner bets in 2025 drafts. Allen is part of the "big three" signal-callers who have produced a league-winning playoff rate in five of the six seasons they have been selected in Rounds 3-4. Heath’s database shows every quarterback league winner since 2017 logged at least 55 rush attempts, and 62 percent cleared 100. Allen easily checks that box, averaging 108 carries and 9 rushing TDs per year during his career. With Buffalo now building its passing game around his legs and explosive outside-structure throws, Heath believes passing-TD variance is a bonus, not a requirement. Because the wide-receiver tier break hits right after Round 2, Heath prefers locking in Allen’s dual-threat ceiling in the early third, then attacking cheaper rookie WR values later on.

Murphy warned that Josh Allen’s rushing TD total—14 last season—could tumble. Buffalo spent heavily on defense (adding Leonard Floyd and re-signing DaQuan Jones) and wants to keep Allen fresh. Murphy expects Sean McDermott to call fewer QB sneaks in low-leverage spots and let Ray Davis and the tight ends handle inside work when the Bills are protecting leads. Because Allen’s fantasy edge is tied to those 6-point plunges, Murphy thinks he now profiles closer to the QB5–QB6 tier instead of the consensus top two. He is pivoting to cheaper elite-upside options like Jaden Daniels in best-ball drafts.

Best Ball Guy said the rumored Von Miller trade to Washington would weaken Buffalo’s defense and could ‘force them to throw a little bit more.’ Buffalo leaned run-heavy last year, but a softer stop unit would create shoot-out scripts that spike Josh Allen’s weekly pass attempts. BBG framed it as a quiet buy signal on the entire passing stack—Allen, rookie wideout Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid—because extra volume plus Allen’s dual-threat TD equity super-charges ceiling weeks in Underdog Superflex tournaments.

Davis Mattek said the crazy quarterback inflation on DraftKings actually boosts the relative value of true studs like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. Mid-tier passers—Joe Burrow still going in the 70s, Tua Tagovailoa and Bryce Young pushed up near pick 100, Aaron Rodgers inside the top 170, even Russell Wilson routinely drafted—have closed the ADP gap so much that spending a fourth- or fifth-rounder on Allen feels cheap by comparison. Mattek reminded listeners that elite QBs are the ones most likely to hit DK’s 300-yard passing bonus and, in the case of Allen, Daniels or Lamar, the 100-yard rushing bonus as well. The Sidekick Sims he runs keep spitting out higher win rates for elite-QB builds because you spend the same draft capital as a panicked room will soon spend on a Stroud or Maye tier anyway. His takeaway: if an Allen/Hurts tier quarterback slides a half round below listed ADP, smash the button and figure out the rest of the build later.

Davis Mattek mocked drafters who click Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba or similar Round-3/4 wideouts while an elite quarterback like Josh Allen is on the board. He argued Allen’s ceiling-weighted VORP crushes what a perennial WR22 brings, especially in half-PPR best-ball playoff weeks. Allen sometimes slides to picks 38-40, handing drafters a weekly 25-point anchor while the room debates uncertain volume receivers tied to run-first teams. Mattek is locking in Allen—and the entire top QB tier—whenever ADP allows, confident cheaper late-round wideouts can replace the flex points those middling receivers provide far more easily than late quarterbacks can replicate Allen.

Hayden Winks selected Josh Allen as his outright QB1, noting the Bills star has finished QB3, QB1, QB2, QB1 and QB2 in points per game since 2020 even without an "alpha" pass catcher. Under Joe Brady, Allen has improved ball security (fewer sacks and INTs) while keeping the red-zone dominance that drives fantasy scoring: 27 rushing TDs over the last two seasons, including 11 one-yard plunges, plus league-leading red-zone fantasy points in three of the past four years. Winks emphasized Buffalo’s offensive continuity— all five starting linemen return— and cited Allen’s Week 14 eruption (13th-best half-PPR game by any player since 1962) as proof of week-winning upside. The path to separating from Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts is sustaining those short-yardage TDs, something the Tush-Push-lite Bills have already shown they will keep feeding him.

Sam Monson said Josh Allen should be the first quarterback off the board in season-long fantasy and any QB-centric futures market. Monson pointed to Allen’s "freak-show" arm talent, short-yardage rushing "cheat code" that routinely converts sneaks into touchdowns, and one of the NFL’s lowest pressure-to-sack rates – a combination that maximizes both floor and ceiling. He added that Allen’s underlying analytics profile is "utterly absurd," reinforcing that the Bills signal-caller has out-performed Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson over the past two seasons. Monson’s takeaway: prioritize Allen over Mahomes in drafts and MVP odds because the blend of elite passing splash plays plus bankable rushing production is unmatched right now.

Billy Jones said Josh Allen is the only quarterback you need on many Best Ball Mania or Weekly Winners rosters. Jones stressed that quarterback scoring is "super, super connected to advance rate," and Allen supplies both a league-high floor and ceiling. He cited Allen’s weekly top-5 finish rate (34% last season) and rushing touchdown dominance—27 scores inside the five over the past three years—as reasons he can single-handedly drag a roster through the regular-season pods. Jones also reminded drafters that the Bills face playoff-style stakes down the stretch as they jockey with Kansas City for AFC home-field advantage, giving Allen a realistic shot at three straight 30-point outputs in Weeks 15-17. Cold-weather worries are irrelevant for a Wyoming native who has averaged 26.7 fantasy points in games below 35°F. Stack partners are optional, but a cheap add like Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid can juice correlation without forcing a second quarterback.

Davis Mattek said that when you open a best-ball draft with only one early wideout you have to “project for a lot of quarterback points.” He took Josh Allen in the third round and immediately planned to pair him with another elite option – Jayden Daniels if available, or Lamar Jackson/Jalen Hurts if they slipped – because the duo’s different bye weeks and easy stacking partners maximize weekly scoring. Mattek expects an Allen–Daniels combo to clear 30 fantasy points most weeks, giving a hero-WR roster the floor and ceiling it needs while allowing him to ignore the wide-receiver position for several rounds.

Calling it ‘ludicrous,’ Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told listeners to auto-click Josh Allen any time he slips into the 40s of drafts. At that price you’re landing a quarterback who has finished top-3 in fantasy points per game four straight seasons and has averaged 27.4 combined pass-plus-rush TDs during Weeks 15-17 in his career—exactly when Best Ball Mania titles are decided. Pat argued drafters are over-reacting to Buffalo’s offseason changes while simultaneously reaching for lower-ceiling QBs later. He sees Allen’s rushing floor (8.0 carries and 0.55 TDs per game since 2020) plus proven 35-point weekly ceiling as unmatched leverage in the early-fourth round.

Davis Mattek argued that you do not have to force a Bills pass-catcher whenever you draft Josh Allen in Underdog’s Eliminator. He pulled up Allen’s 2023 blow-up game against the Rams— the single largest quarterback fantasy score of the year— and noted that the top Buffalo receiver in that contest was Khalil Shakir with only 19.6 points. Mattek said the stat illustrates Allen’s unique ceiling: his rushing production and willingness to spread targets mean he can post 35-plus on his own, so the usual correlation tax is optional. Mattek is comfortable taking Allen as a naked QB1 (his only bring-back was RB Ray Davis in this draft) and using the freed roster spots on higher-upside one-off plays from other teams.

Davis Mattek said you should snap-take Josh Allen whenever he slips to the late-second/early-third round in Underdog’s Eliminator because the weekly, head-to-head format magnifies elite quarterback spike weeks. Allen normally costs a mid-second pick but occasionally drifts when drafters hammer running backs early; Mattek called that ADP slide “a huge value.” He added that Allen’s dual-threat profile has produced 32 games of 28-plus fantasy points since 2020—more than any QB over that span—so a single 40-point eruption can single-handedly win an Eliminator matchup and let you coast through the early payout weeks (money starts in Week 4). Mattek also liked the natural AFC East mini-correlation on Allen teams because most Josh drafters are selecting Dolphins RB Devon Achane or Jets RB Breece Hall at the 2-3 turn, combinations that will be relatively unique in a contest where duplicated studs dampen upside. Bottom line: if Allen falls past ADP, take him and enjoy the weekly floor/ceiling edge that cheaper quarterbacks simply cannot match in a no-bad-weeks structure.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound warned that drafters are making a mistake taking Josh Allen second or third overall in Underdog’s new Sprint contest. He noted that Allen’s ADP in normal Best Ball Mania rooms is still in the low-30s, and the only reason he is rocketing up the Sprint boards is because a fresh CSV rank file pushed quarterbacks to the very top of the queue. Pat called the early-round premium "flat-out wrong" and pointed out that he personally scooped Allen at pick 31 in a slow draft just last week, locking in the exact same weekly ceiling while preserving a first-round pick for a true difference-maker at another position. His advice: wait for the market to settle and only click Allen once he slides at least a full round past his BBM ADP—around 30–34 overall—so you capture closing-line value and avoid sacrificing an elite wideout or running back.

Pete Overzet told drafters not to sweat stacking when it comes to Josh Allen. He noted Allen accounted for 42% of Buffalo’s rushing touchdowns and spread targets among nine different pass-catchers last season, making expensive pairings like Dalton Kincaid unnecessary. Overzet is comfortable taking Allen in Round 4 and filling correlation later with cheap pieces such as Khalil Shakir or rookie RB Ray Davis. The upside of a 28-point median in Week 17 outweighs any lost correlation EV, and selecting Allen early frees drafters to pound running back value in the Round 9-11 pocket where they’d normally be taking their first QB.

Jon Warner questioned Josh Allen’s current 6.3 average draft slot in the Sprint and advised passing on him at that price. Warner noted the same ADP spike happened last year before correcting and argued the Sprint’s rotisserie playoff format still demands ceiling games, making the opportunity cost of skipping elite RBs and WRs too steep. In a 216-player pool you can grab starting backs like Tony Pollard in Round 6, something you forfeit if you spend that pick on a onesie. Buffalo’s neutral Week 16-18 schedule offers no clear matchup advantage, so Warner believes Allen belongs closer to the late-second round rather than the mid-first.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafters should pounce on Josh Allen any time he slips past pick 10 in Underdog’s $20 Sprint. Allen’s Sprint ADP is currently 3-4 overall, yet Pat flagged a slow draft where the Bills QB lasted to pick 31 and called it “crazy value.” He credited the slide to auto-drafters and unsettled early-contest ADPs, noting Allen opened at 2.7. Pat expects the market to correct once rooms sharpen, so scooping Allen now provides a full round of closing line value on a dual-threat quarterback who has already logged two QB1 overall finishes in the last four seasons.

Hayden Winks said drafters should be pouncing on Josh Allen any time he slides a half-round past ADP because the elite-QB tier is cheaper than ever. In previous Best Ball summers Allen and Lamar Jackson were tethered to first- or second-round pass catchers (Stefon Diggs, Mark Andrews) that artificially boosted their cost; with those receivers now going later, the quarterbacks themselves have drifted into the late third/early fourth despite no change in weekly ceiling. Winks pointed out that Allen finishes top-25 in points over replacement every season and routinely end-zones 30-plus touchdowns through the air and on the ground. Without a Round-1 tax, Allen becomes a structural smash—especially on builds that start WR-WR or WR-RB—because you secure the highest median QB scorer while the room chases uncertain stacks. Winks labeled it a perfect leverage play on Burrow/Chase rooms that rarely roster Allen.

Billy Jones said he is perfectly comfortable clicking Josh Allen as early as pick 40—seven spots past ADP but still the fourth round in an 18-round Best Ball Mania room. Jones explained that he wants roughly 12-13 percent exposure to Allen because 2024 draft rooms are littered with "bench-risk" quarterbacks who come off the board after pick 150. With more teams inserting injury clauses and back-loaded guarantees, Jones expects several late-round QBs to be parking-lot deactivated by fantasy playoff weeks. Paying up for Allen removes that headache while still giving drafters access to the league’s No. 1 per-game scorer at the position and a weekly rushing-TD ceiling that no other early QB besides Jalen Hurts can match. In his view, the single extra roster spot you gain by stopping at two quarterbacks is worth the modest opportunity cost of taking Allen in the fourth.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafters should pounce whenever Josh Allen slides into the mid-fourth round of Best Ball Mania 6. He argued Underdog’s new 20-round format amplifies the edge of an elite quarterback because managers who land Allen can confidently stop at two passers, freeing an extra late-round pick for upside receivers or running backs. Pat noted Allen’s five consecutive top-2 fantasy finishes and league-best 7.8 designed rush attempts per game as proof his weekly ceiling is unmatched. With sharp rooms chasing wide-receiver avalanche builds, Allen is slipping “half a round or more,” a discount Pat believes will evaporate once casual summer drafters arrive.