Mattek highlighted Josh Downs as a ceiling pick: top-10 in targets per route run, separation at the catch point, and yards per route run as a rookie despite limited snaps. He anticipates Indianapolis moving away from heavy 12 personnel, giving Downs full-time routes and allowing those per-route efficiencies to translate into bankable Best Ball spike weeks.

Nez cautioned drafters that Josh Downs’ meteoric rise into the Khalil Shakir/Rome Odunze draft tier is built on sand. Underdog still hasn’t posted a season-long receiving prop for Downs, which Nez says is a tell that oddsmakers are unsure how to price him. He compared Downs to Shakir, who already owns a 649.5-yard line, and Golden at 724.5, and doubts the rookie would open above either number once the book finally hangs it. The current steam, he argued, depends on Daniel Jones winning the Colts job—giving Downs a high-percentage slot distributor. If Anthony Richardson starts instead, the scramble-heavy, low-volume profile would slash catchable-target totals. Until the quarterback situation is settled, Nez is fading Downs at cost in Best Ball drafts and plans to pound the lower on any prop that appears north of 650 yards.

Heath labeled Josh Downs a "smash" at his roughly WR48 cost. Downs ranked 10th in 1D/RR (0.114) and 4th in targets per route (30%), plus posted a top-5 Average Separation Score from the slot. Indianapolis ran 11-personnel on 70.7% of snaps (10th-highest), so slot usage won’t cap volume. The bigger upgrade is under center: likely Week 1 starter Daniel Jones finished 2024 top-10 in catchable-throw rate, whereas Anthony Richardson was last, specifically struggling on the horizontal-breaking routes where Downs earns 41% of his targets. Downs averaged 15.5 FPG (WR15 pace) in games with Joe Flacco, showing what accurate quarterbacking can unlock. Heath is pounding the draft button at his price.

Ryan Heath called Josh Downs a smash at his ~WR48 ADP. Downs ranked 10th in 1D/RR (0.114) and 4th in targets per route (30%) last year while finishing top-5 in Average Separation Score from the slot. The Colts ran 11-personnel on 70.7% of snaps (10th-highest), guaranteeing three-WR sets. Heath blamed Anthony Richardson’s inaccuracy on horizontal routes for suppressing production; Downs averaged 15.5 FPG with Joe Flacco. Week-1 starter Daniel Jones ranked top-10 in catchable throws per game in 2024, giving Downs a quarterback upgrade. Heath expects a target spike and is drafting him everywhere.

Sam Wallace pushed Josh Downs all the way down to WR52 despite the sophomore’s 2024 breakout (100-plus targets, 800-plus yards). He argued that the looming Richardson-versus-Jones battle and the quarterbacks’ run-first tendencies make it improbable for Indianapolis to sustain two fantasy-viable receivers. With Pittman already penciled in for the lion’s share of targets, Wallace sees Downs as an inconsistent WR5/bench option whose weekly value will hinge on big plays or injuries elsewhere in the offense.

Nick Whalen spotlighted Josh Downs as a ninth-round steal (WR46, after pick 100). Downs stacked 771 yards as a rookie and followed with 72-803-5 in only 14 games last year while commanding a 22 % target share (top-25 league-wide) and 2.3 yards per route run. Although Indianapolis’ quarterback room is volatile, Whalen believes the market has over-reacted. He expects more starts from newly acquired Daniel Jones than Anthony Richardson, calling Jones a better stylistic fit for Downs’ slot-heavy, middle-of-field route tree and a higher weekly floor. The talent profile, role continuity, and depressed ADP make Downs one of the few receivers available in Round 9 with legitimate weekly WR2 upside.