Paruk warned that Josh Jacobs’ 78.5 rushing-yard prop is too rich. The veteran back managed only 66 yards on 19 totes (3.5 YPC) in Week 1 and now faces a Washington front that just limited the Giants to 64 rushing yards. With Green Bay likely to sprinkle in A.J. Dillon and potentially play from ahead, Paruk doubts Jacobs sees the efficiency or volume needed to flirt with 80 yards.

Rohit Ponnaiya advised taking the Under 78.5 rushing yards on Josh Jacobs at -110. Jacobs logged only 66 yards on 19 carries in Week 1 and has failed to break 70 yards in six of his last eight games. Ponnaiya underscored the matchup: Washington’s run defense graded 88.3 at PFF in Week 1, tops in the league, after allowing the Giants’ backs just 30 yards on 15 totes and holding New York to 3.7 yards per play overall. With the Commanders dictating the line of scrimmage and Green Bay potentially leaning more on the pass to exploit Washington’s secondary, Ponnaiya sees a tough path for Jacobs to reach 79 yards on Thursday.

Jim Coventry ranked Josh Jacobs eighth, emphasizing durability and usage. Although Jacobs played only 62 % of Green Bay’s snaps after the midseason trade, he touched the ball almost every time he was on the field and immediately reclaimed goal-line duties. The Packers leaned on him for a spike in touchdown rate down the stretch, something Coventry expects Matt LaFleur to replicate. Among the backs in his second tier, Jacobs carries the fewest role questions, making him Coventry’s preferred “safe” RB1/2 turn target.

Pat Mayo said he raised Josh Jacobs in his Top-150 because every Packers backup runner keeps landing on the injury report, calling their issues "re-occurring" and noting that none of them are ever on the field. With no healthy competition, Mayo expects Green Bay to funnel the backfield work through Jacobs, projecting an 80-plus percent snap share and uninterrupted goal-line usage. He urged fantasy managers to draft Jacobs confidently as a volume-driven RB1 rather than over-analyzing minor efficiency concerns.

Pat Mayo announced he moved Josh Jacobs up his Top-150 because "the backups just keep getting hurt." With AJ Dillon still nursing a quad and rookie Elijah Collins recently undergoing meniscus surgery, Mayo believes Green Bay will have little choice but to lean heavily on Jacobs’ every-down profile. Jacobs already handled 77% of Raider carries and 70% of long-down-and-distance snaps in 2024; Mayo projects a similar snap share in Matt LaFleur’s run-heavy red-zone scheme, noting that Green Bay finished 7th in red-zone rush rate last year. The volume safety, plus offensive line continuity, makes Jacobs a secure high-end RB2 who can sneak into the top-8 at the position if the touchdown variance tilts his way.

Jake Ciely pegged Josh Jacobs as one of the best values on the board, frequently landing him at picks 18-19 and sometimes in the early third round. With Green Bay’s offensive-line injuries already piling up, Ciely sees virtually no workload gap between Jacobs and Derrick Henry but noted that Jacobs is a full round cheaper. He expects Matt LaFleur to lean heavily on Jacobs as a true three-down option, giving the back a realistic 300-touch ceiling. Ciely prefers Jacobs over second-round receivers dealing with quarterback or scheme uncertainty and recommends scooping him whenever he slips past the mid-second.

Joe Pisapia warned that Josh Jacobs is unlikely to replicate last year’s carry load now that Jordan Love’s ankle is healthy. Pisapia noted Green Bay leaned on 340 Jacobs rush attempts in 2024 because Love lacked his usual pocket mobility and was "never right the entire season." With Love moving fluidly again, Pisapia expects Matt LaFleur to unlock more play-action and designed rollouts, trimming Jacobs’ touches and exposing him to injury risk if the Packers stubbornly keep his workload in the high-20s per game. Drafters counting on another usage spike should downgrade Jacobs into the mid-RB2 range.

Best Ball Guy noticed that 45 % of his Justin Jefferson rosters also include Josh Jacobs even though he only has 7 % total Jacobs exposure. He said he will “not take Jacobs again” on Jefferson builds because the Packers and Vikings do not face each other in Weeks 15-16, eliminating any playoff-round correlation upside and leaving only a minor Week 17 NFC North mini-stack. The combination therefore soaks up portfolio share without offering the game-stack leverage he wants in Best Ball Mania.

Jeremy Shulman is fading Josh Jacobs at his mid-second-round ADP. Jacobs handled 327 touches in 2024—second-most of his career—and turns 27 this season, an age and workload combo Shulman views as a durability red flag. Green Bay drafted two new pass-catchers and expects MarShawn Lloyd to stay healthier, both of which could limit Jacobs’ snap share. Shulman prefers receivers like Brock Bowers and Drake London in that draft pocket, arguing that Jacobs’ RB1 finish last year was volume-driven and unlikely to repeat without another perfect bill of health.

Warren Sharp framed Josh Jacobs as a classic upside pick whose efficiency could spike if Matt LaFleur finally scraps his motion-heavy rushing looks. The Packers used pre-snap motion on the second-highest percentage of run plays in 2023-24, yet those plays ranked near the bottom of the league in EPA per rush, success rate, and explosive-run rate. When Green Bay ran *without* motion, they graded No. 1 in both EPA and success rate for two straight seasons. Sharp said the data screams for a philosophical shift now that a downhill back like Jacobs is in town. If LaFleur abandons the window-dressing and leans on inside zone or QB-sneak friendly fourth-and-short calls (80 % conversion), Jacobs could see significantly better yards after contact and drive-finishing opportunities, making him an undervalued RB2 for best-ball and DFS slates where he is priced like a volume-only play.

Chris Raybon said Josh Jacobs is the back he’s "really worried about" in the RB10-RB15 tier. Jacobs has swung between elite and sub-par seasons, and Raybon doubts his receiving usage will rebound because "he's not a guy where you feel like you have to use him in the pass game." With the Packers signaling they will "spread the ball around to different receivers," Raybon fears Jacobs could be game-script dependent and touchdown-reliant. He currently has Jacobs at RB12 but labeled him a fade relative to market, preferring upside plays like Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, or Chase Brown in the same draft pocket.

Koerner views Jacobs as a classic sell-high. The Packers rode him for 17 healthy games, 18 carries and 2.1 receptions per contest, finishing RB5 in a league-leading 63% run-rate offense. That environment is unlikely to repeat. Jordan Love enters healthy, Green Bay finally spent a first-round pick on WR Matthew Golden, and Koerner expects a materially higher pass rate. With multiple "chess-piece" backs (Marshall Lloyd, Savion Williams, Jayden Reed) ready to siphon gadget touches, Jacobs’ workload could fall back to the 20-25 touch range, making a top-5 finish difficult. Koerner projects him more in the RB10-15 tier and prefers taking upside receivers like Ladd McConkey or Tyreek Hill in the same draft pocket.

Josh Norris said he is still in on Josh Jacobs at the 2-3 turn and is drafting him 22nd overall, well ahead of current Underdog ADP where Jacobs is even sliding behind Chase Brown. Norris pointed out that 24 % of Jacobs’ carries produced a first down or touchdown last year, the second-best rate of his career. The move to Green Bay actually bumped his explosive-run rate from 4 % to 11 %, something Norris credits to a loaded Packers offensive line that "goes two-deep" with former first-rounders as reserves and to Matt LaFleur’s RB-friendly play-calling. Next Gen Stats graded Jacobs RB3 in rush yards over expected and he owned 73 % of Green Bay’s carries inside the five, converting 11 touchdowns – sixth-highest share league-wide. With Marshawn Lloyd already sidelined and no trusted backup, Norris expects Jacobs to repeat last season’s RB6 per-game finish, calling him a clear value wherever he lasts past pick 20 in both best-ball and redraft formats.

Josh placed Josh Jacobs 21st overall and sees him as a reliable RB2 who still carries week-winning upside. Jacobs has averaged 18.6 carries per game since 2022, and ESPN reporters Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano said Packers coaches “don’t see that number changing.” Last season 24 % of Jacobs’ rushes produced a first down or touchdown, the second-best rate of his career, and a better environment bumped his 10-plus-yard run rate from 4 % to 11 %. Josh argued that those efficiency gains underscore how offensive line and overall scoring context elevate a running back’s stats. With Green Bay expected to remain efficient near the goal line and Jacobs locked into true workhorse usage, Josh sees him as a low-risk, high-volume pick in the early third round of both best-ball and season-long drafts.

Jeremy Fowler said Josh Jacobs "looked like the best player on the field" in Packers camp, flashing explosive cuts. Matt LaFleur plans to lean on him much like last year’s 301-carry season; Jacobs has averaged 18.6 carries per game since 2022. With Christian Watson sidelined and a young pass-catching corps still jelling, expect another heavy-usage RB1 campaign.

Ryan Noonan said Josh Jacobs is being undervalued after injuries sidelined Emmanuel Wilson and Marshawn Lloyd, leaving the Packers with no credible competition. He praised Green Bay’s offensive line and expects the offense to remain slightly run-leaning once Malik Willis– skewed 2024 numbers are removed. Noonan projects Jacobs to replicate last season’s elite snap share, calling him a draft target above ADP and a candidate for alt-yardage or touchdown overs on his 1,100-yard and 10.5-TD lines—provided he stays healthy.

PPRTyler said he has been mixing in Lamar Jackson–Josh Jacobs builds, adding "I do like Lamar-Jacobs for Week 17." After loading up on more common Bengals stacks earlier in draft season, Tyler likes this pairing as a differentiated playoff-round play that still carries ceiling if the Ravens–Packers game shoots out.

Matthew Freedman projected Josh Jacobs for 10.5 TDs while noting that three of Jacobs’ six pro seasons have featured 12-plus touchdowns—including a career-high 16 last year. Jacobs has never dipped below 269 opportunities or 1,101 scrimmage yards and has averaged 345 touches for 1,608 yards over the past three seasons. Now entrenched as the unquestioned feature back in a potent Packers offense, Freedman believes Jacobs’ dependable workload makes double-digit scores a safe bet as long as health cooperates, justifying his RB8 ADP.

Fantasy Dog Pound became more bullish on Josh Jacobs after Marshawn Lloyd suffered a groin injury in Packers camp, removing the most credible early-season challenger for touches. He believes the injury cements Jacobs as the clear lead back and revives the bell-cow workload he enjoyed in 2022. With Jacobs’ ADP having drifted into the early third round, Dog Pound called the current price a buying window and said he has started clicking Jacobs more aggressively in recent drafts.

Nick Whalen labeled Josh Jacobs the ultimate floor play at the 2/3 turn. Jacobs has logged four top-12 fantasy finishes in five seasons and missed only seven games total. Whalen expects Matt LaFleur to feed him 275-plus carries after Green Bay leaned heavily on the ground game last year, giving Jacobs a near-certain path to 1,300 yards and 8-10 touchdowns. While limited reception upside caps his ceiling, Whalen argued that relative to boom-bust peers like Jonathan Taylor or Bucky Irving, Jacobs offers the most bankable weekly workload if health cooperates.

Steve Palazzolo noted that Green Bay pivoted to a more downhill rushing approach last season and believes the free-agent addition of Josh Jacobs, who replaces Aaron Jones, locks that identity in for 2025. Jacobs’ power-back profile dovetails with Matt LaFleur’s desire for "multiple ways to win," setting him up for early-down and goal-line volume. Palazzolo framed the move as a "nice pickup," signaling Jacobs should see the kind of workload that keeps him firmly in the RB2 mix for season-long leagues while giving the Packers a second offensive path if Jordan Love is inconsistent.

Jim Coventry framed Josh Jacobs as the "safe play" in Round 2/3 turns. Even in a down 2023, Jacobs averaged 19 carries per game over the second half and regularly posted 20-point PPR outings. Coventry highlighted Jacobs’ durability—only a couple missed games during his Raiders stint—and expects Green Bay to feature him similarly, giving drafters a sturdy RB2 with RB1 weeks.

Jim Coventry advised locking in Josh Jacobs as your second running back at pick 27. He pointed out that Jacobs "saw a ton of work from the second half of the season on last year, basically cashing almost every week for fantasy." Coventry expects Green Bay to operate a run-centric offense, giving Jacobs ample carries, frequent goal-line chances, and a healthy dose of receptions. Those three usage buckets combine for a steady weekly floor and multi-TD upside, making Jacobs an ideal anchor RB2 in 12-team Season-Long builds.

Coventry advised grabbing Josh Jacobs at the 2-3 turn because the veteran offers an "insanely good floor." After joining Green Bay he averaged 19.3 rushing attempts during the second half of 2024 and frequently topped 20 PPR points. Coventry believes the Packers will continue leaning on Jacobs as their clear workhorse, making him a safer bet than the other backs available in that tier such as Breece Hall, Chase Brown or Kyren Williams.

Jacobs is Whalen’s second back in Tier 3. He wonders if Green Bay will dial back the extreme workloads Jacobs saw late last season, but points out the Packers lack an established red-zone alternative. Jacobs scored 15 rushing TDs in 2024 and still offers more receiving juice than he showed in Vegas; Whalen thinks a return to 50-plus catches is within reach, keeping Jacobs’ floor high.

Jim Coventry advised scooping Josh Jacobs at picks 23/26 because the veteran “pretty much falls” to that slot in most drafts. Coventry labeled Jacobs “super safe” thanks to his locked-in volume, citing a high floor with a “reasonable ceiling” that stabilizes rosters built around Bijan Robinson.

Shawn Siegele doubled-down on his Josh Jacobs fade, adding fresh reasons to worry at a mid-second-round ADP. Siegele said Jacobs “has to break five tackles just to get five yards,” highlighting a chronic lack of big-play juice that forces drafters to bank on brute volume. That volume is no longer safe: rookie MarShawn Lloyd is the clear No. 2 and hyper-athletic Emmanuel Wilson is still in the mix, creating multiple paths for touch erosion beyond A.J. Dillon. If either youngster flashes early, Jacobs’ snap share and especially his goal-line role could shrink, making him a shaky bet to return second-round value in best-ball or managed leagues.

Siegele cautioned that Josh Jacobs’ 2023 workload was worth only 15.2 expected points per game—hardly elite for a supposed bell-cow—and that profile may get even thinner after his move to Green Bay. The Packers’ back-up combination (A.J. Dillon plus rookie MarShawn Lloyd) is "probably pretty good," so Siegele expects at least some erosion of Jacobs’ touch share, especially at the goal line. Because high-value touches were already scarce for Jacobs in Las Vegas, even a modest split could strip him of RB1 viability. Until camp confirms Jacobs owns a near-total workload moat, Siegele is fading him at his late-second-round ADP in best-ball and redraft drafts.

Mike Wright warned that Josh Jacobs’ back-of-Round-2 price bakes in last season’s extreme run-heavy script—a script he doubts repeats. Wright noted that in 2023 a healthy Jordan Love piloted an offense where 76 percent of Green Bay’s touchdowns came through the air. Last year that figure flipped only after Love’s groin injury slashed his attempts by ten per game and forced LaFleur to lean on the ground game, pushing the Packers to 30th in pass rate. With Love now healthy, Wright expects the pendulum to swing toward the coach’s historical preference for balance, limiting Jacobs’ carry count and making a 14-TD repeat unlikely. He sits a couple spots below ADP in Wright’s ranks and prefers pivoting to Lamar Jackson at the same draft slot or waiting for third-round backs like Kyren Williams or Chase Brown. Unless Jacobs slips, Wright views him as a risky RB1 whose ceiling depends on another outlier rushing-TD share.

Andy Holloway called Josh Jacobs a "great pick" at his current RB9 ADP on the 2/3 turn. Holloway reminded listeners that Jacobs finished 2024 as the RB5 while leading the league with 14 rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. A staggering 58 percent of his yards came after contact, evidence that the back, not the scheme, created the production. Holloway acknowledged that Matt LaFleur should dial the pass rate back up from last year’s 30th-ranked clip once Jordan Love is healthy, yet he argued Jacobs’ elite red-zone skill set insulates him from volume swings. Even a more balanced offense still projects multiple weekly trips inside the 20, and Holloway believes Jacobs remains the clear finisher. Bottom line: if you start your draft with an elite wideout, Jacobs is a sturdy RB1 anchor who can repeat double-digit TDs without needing the third-highest run rate in football.

Best Ball Guy called Josh Jacobs a clear value whenever he slips into the third round, arguing that the current WR pool is "gross" at that price tier. Jacobs, who was routinely a 2⁄3-turn pick earlier in the summer, supplies what Eric termed a "really solid baseline of rushing" while allowing drafters to scoop wide-receiver value that has drifted to the 4⁄5 turn. By grabbing Jacobs now and back-loading receiver picks, managers can capture both a dependable weekly floor and the structural benefits of cheaper wide-out upside, creating rosters that look materially different from early-summer builds.

Szafraniec acknowledged that signing Josh Jacobs probably unlocked the real-life Packers offense by giving them a between-the-tackles sledgehammer, but he warned fantasy drafters not to chase Jacobs in the early second round. Jacobs has never been a consistent pass catcher in Aaron Jones’ old role and Green Bay leaned "too far into the run" last year when Love was banged up. With Malik Willis packages still lurking and the team expected to pass more in 2024, Szafraniec sees limited receiving volume and touchdown volatility capping Jacobs’ ceiling. At his current ADP he recommends pivoting to receivers or quarterbacks with higher weekly upside in Best Ball and redraft formats.

Ian Hartitz pushed Josh Jacobs below his Tier 2 backs because the Green Bay depth chart won’t be the free ride it was in 2024 when every other Packer RB got hurt. He recalled Matt LaFleur’s history of splitting carries—Derrick Henry once ceded work to Dion Lewis, and AJ Dillon logged 200-plus touches in three straight seasons next to Aaron Jones. Marshawn Lloyd returns healthy, and Dillon’s neck is fully cleared, so Hartitz doubts Jacobs repeats last year’s 82% opportunity share. The talent is still there, but likely touch dilution and LaFleur’s willingness to rotate keep Jacobs outside Ian’s top 10 and firmly in Tier 3.

Emory Hunt advocated for Josh Jacobs over 1,050.5 rushing yards. He called the number surprisingly low for a back he views as a perennial 1,200-yard producer. Hunt expects Green Bay to lean on the ground game and pointed to the offseason addition of former 49ers guard Aaron Banks to bolster interior blocking. Given Jacobs’ tackle-breaking style and durability, Hunt believes he can surpass the mark even if he plays only 14 games.

Joey B said he is happy to scoop Josh Jacobs at pick 27 (early 3rd round) on Underdog because the veteran still profiles for "his usual 230 points" in half-PPR. With the room almost always triggering a wide-receiver avalanche, Jacobs gives him bankable weekly volume while allowing him to start WR-WR in the first two rounds. He views Jacobs as one of the few backs still projected for 275+ touches after signing with Green Bay, and believes that floor/ceiling combo is perfect for advancing Best Ball Mania teams without paying first-round prices for running back production.

Jim Coventry predicted Josh Jacobs will finish as RB6 despite an ADP around RB10. After a slow start last year, Jacobs ripped off 1,671 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs, averaging 20.6 PPR points per game from Week 8 forward while his rushes climbed from 17 to 19 per contest. Coventry believes Matt LaFleur will again ask Jordan Love to manage games and let Jacobs, operating behind a strong offensive line, serve as the offensive engine. Even with only a 62 % snap share in 2024, Jacobs posted eight 20-point outings after Week 6. Coventry expects similar post-bye usage and touchdown volume, calling him a steal at current draft cost.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound projected Josh Jacobs to become Green Bay’s clear bell-cow once the playoff race heats up. He acknowledged the Packers will likely spread touches early, saying the staff ‘wants to get more touches going in the direction of other players to help the workload of Jacobs.’ However, Pat believes that if Green Bay is competing for a postseason spot, the coaching staff will revert to a heavy-usage model with Jacobs, making him an attractive Greyhound pick for the playoff weeks when the money is on the line.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound highlighted a sneaky Green Bay stack: start with new arrival Josh Jacobs, then layer in Jordan Love, Jayden Reed and tight end Tucker Kraft. He likes how Jacobs’ three-down role provides floor while the cheap pass catchers unlock ceiling, giving drafters a differentiating Packers build that few rooms replicate. Pat called the combination ‘pretty fun’ because it captures every touchdown path without spending elite capital at quarterback or receiver.

Cody Woodman said he is "not super high" on Josh Jacobs at his current early-third-round price, citing several red flags. Jacobs logged 340 touches last season—including 316 carries during his Raiders swan song—and faded badly down the stretch, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry after Week 12. While Cody acknowledged Green Bay invested heavily in the offensive line this offseason—signing Aaron Banks and drafting Anthony Belton and Jordan Morgan—he reminded listeners that head coach Matt LaFleur publicly said last year he didn’t want a true bell-cow but had to ride Jacobs out of necessity. With rookie Marshawn Lloyd shelved, Jacobs again projects for a punishing workload that could sap his efficiency. Cody has Jacobs ranked RB15 (overall 28th) and will only click him when he slides a full round past ADP, preferring to spend that capital on wide-receiver upside in balanced builds.

Hayden Winks said Josh Jacobs is one of the easiest ADP wins on the entire board. He reminded viewers that Jacobs was a consensus first-round pick last summer and then posted another 1,300-plus scrimmage-yard season, yet he now slips into the mid-third because drafters are trying to convince themselves last year was a fluke. Winks noted that Green Bay did not add meaningful backfield competition—MarShawn Lloyd barely saw the field as a rookie and the Packers ignored RB in the draft—so Jacobs should reprise the 18-to-20-touch workload that made Aaron Jones a fantasy staple. With Jordan Love’s offense trending up (top-10 in points per drive after Week 9) and zero threat on passing downs, Winks projected Jacobs for another 50-target season and labeled his current RB15 price “pure closing-line value” for both Best Ball and redraft rooms.

Erik Beimfohr pushed back on the Josh Jacobs enthusiasm, saying the new Packer comes off the board in the early third round while similar touch projections for Joe Mixon and Chuba Hubbard can be had a full round—or more—later. Beimfohr pointed out that the wide-receiver names available next to Jacobs (DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Travis Hunter) carry genuine league-winning ceilings, whereas Jacobs profiles as a ‘maybe he’ll be okay’ volume play. He also noted that Green Bay’s pass-heavy tilt with Jordan Love and three capable receivers could suppress the red-zone carry count that buoyed Jacobs during his 2022 RB1 season. Unless Jacobs slides toward the Mixon/Hubbard price tier, Beimfohr is pivoting to those cheaper backs and scooping the elite receivers that share Jacobs’ current ADP pocket in Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane argued that Josh Jacobs is mildly mispriced, saying drafters should treat him as a late-second/early-third pick instead of letting him slide to the middle of Round 3. Kerrane noted the probability of Jacobs simply "chugging along" as Green Bay’s unquestioned RB1 is far higher than the market implies; Marshawn Lloyd or A.J. Dillon would have to become stars to dent Jacobs’ workload. The Packers ranked ninth in combined RB expected fantasy points last season, and Matt LaFleur has historically leaned on a single back once trust is earned. Kerrane framed Jacobs as the same 260-touch, goal-line-favored profile that used to be drafted on the 2/3 turn but now comes at a lower opportunity cost next to wide receivers like DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson. While acknowledging minor durability concerns, he believes the median outcome still returns a top-15 season and provides early-season stability for Best Ball builds that start WR-heavy.

Mike Wright dropped Josh Jacobs to RB13 because last year’s fantasy finish rode an extreme and historically fickle touchdown split. Green Bay jumped from scoring 24 % of its TDs on the ground in 2023 to 45 % in 2024, a swing Wright called "wildly out of character" for Matt LaFleur’s offense that normally ranks near the top in passing‑TD rate. Jacobs’ 14 rushing scores inside the 10 masked a middling 58 % catch rate and only 4.1 yards per touch. Wright also cited the back’s ‘every‑other‑year’ production pattern and minor durability issues—seasons finishing outside the top‑12 have coincided with 13 and 15 games played. With zero Top‑30 visits for RBs in Green Bay, workload looks safe, but Wright expects TD regression to pull Jacobs down to the RB10–14 range, making him an avoid at his current RB7 ADP in season‑long drafts.