Mike Wright dropped Josh Jacobs to RB13 because last year’s fantasy finish rode an extreme and historically fickle touchdown split. Green Bay jumped from scoring 24 % of its TDs on the ground in 2023 to 45 % in 2024, a swing Wright called "wildly out of character" for Matt LaFleur’s offense that normally ranks near the top in passing‑TD rate. Jacobs’ 14 rushing scores inside the 10 masked a middling 58 % catch rate and only 4.1 yards per touch. Wright also cited the back’s ‘every‑other‑year’ production pattern and minor durability issues—seasons finishing outside the top‑12 have coincided with 13 and 15 games played. With zero Top‑30 visits for RBs in Green Bay, workload looks safe, but Wright expects TD regression to pull Jacobs down to the RB10–14 range, making him an avoid at his current RB7 ADP in season‑long drafts.