Warren Sharp said bettors should fade Atlanta’s offense in live or second-half markets whenever Kirk Cousins is under center. He highlighted a dramatic 2024 split: Cousins ranked top-five in EPA per attempt, success rate, and yards per attempt before halftime but dropped to 31st in second-half EPA, posted the league’s third-worst interception rate, and threw 11 of his 16 picks after the break. Sharp traced the collapse to Cousins operating 100% of his snaps from shotgun or pistol while coming off Achilles surgery, a combination that becomes predictable and likely leads to fatigue. Until the Falcons prove they can adjust, Sharp believes second-half unders and opponent second-half spreads carry value.

Chris Raybon highlighted a simple edge on low-mobility quarterbacks such as Kirk Cousins. Books sometimes post Cousins’ rushing line at 0.5 or 1.0 yards. For an OVER ticket to cash, Cousins would need a scramble AND no kneel-downs—a parlay of unlikely events. Raybon automatically attacks the UNDER whenever he sees that number, either pre-game or after a meaningless zero-yard carry bumps the in-game line up. One kneel or a game script in which he never scrambles is enough to cash the under, making this a high-confidence, low-variance betting angle he exploits week after week.

Steve Palazzolo said drafters should treat Kirk Cousins as stash-and-pray material because a mid-season trade is "basically off the table" outside of two very specific injury scenarios. Palazzolo mapped out that Atlanta would only move Cousins—and Cousins would only waive his no-trade clause—if former Viking JJ McCarthy flames out early in Minnesota or if Brock Purdy suffers a setback in San Francisco. Both destinations would have to pony up meaningful draft capital, something Palazzolo doubts they would do unless their starters implode. He reminded listeners that Cousins flashed just twice last year (500-yard overtime win versus Tampa Bay and a late two-minute drill versus Philadelphia) but otherwise looked physically diminished after the Achilles tear. With the Falcons comfortable paying "the best backup in football," Palazzolo advised season-long and best-ball gamers not to burn anything more than a final-round dart on Cousins unless they are specifically betting on a McCarthy or Purdy injury.

Sam Monson also acknowledged a glass-half-full angle for best-ball drafters: Cousins should be healthier in Year 2 post-Achilles and is already embedded in Zac Robinson’s scheme. Atlanta values him as “the best backup quarterback in the NFL,” especially given Michael Penix Jr.’s extensive college injury history (two shoulder surgeries and two ACL tears). Monson highlighted two 2023 flashes—a 500-yard OT win versus Tampa Bay and a late comeback against Philadelphia—as evidence Cousins can still spike if his mobility returns. Because any injury to Penix would thrust Cousins into a starting role without a learning curve, Monson labeled him a viable last-round lottery ticket in best-ball formats where QB depth matters.

Sam Monson warned fantasy managers not to bank on Kirk Cousins starting anywhere in 2024. Monson pointed to Cousins’ 2023 tape, noting the Falcons had to redesign the offense around his post-Achilles limitations and still benched him. He argued the veteran "might be done" and that no team was willing to surrender draft capital or absorb his salary this offseason, leaving an injury-driven trade as the only path to snaps. Because Atlanta can afford to stash the NFL’s highest-paid backup and Cousins owns a no-trade clause, Monson believes he will sit behind Michael Penix Jr. all year barring a catastrophic QB injury elsewhere, making Cousins a fade in traditional season-long drafts.

Best Ball Guy said Kirk Cousins is the perfect insurance QB to scoop after you already have two or three starters. He referenced PPRTyler’s report that Cousins has ‘looked into coming over to Miami,’ which would instantly unlock a cheap Week-17 stack with Jaylen Waddle while still correlating with Chris Godwin as a bring-back. Even if Cousins never leaves Atlanta, BBG likes that he dovetails with Bijan Robinson exposure and supplies a proven floor should one of the primary quarterbacks go down. Because multiple NFL teams could plausibly upgrade their quarterback room mid-season, BBG argued that Cousins’ range of outcomes includes several landing spots that would spike his playoff value in Underdog’s Superflex best ball rooms, making him a savvy late pick who keeps line-up flexibility intact.

Best Ball Guy said he’s at 40% exposure to Kirk Cousins in Underdog Superflex and thinks the ADP remains a steal. In his view, league-wide quarterback play is so shaky that "there’s no way he’s sitting" once he’s medically cleared. He outlined multiple paths: 1) veterans like Justin Fields getting benched, 2) rookies such as Michael Penix stumbling in Atlanta, and 3) a mid-season trade to Kevin Stefanski’s Browns or another contender desperate for stability. Each scenario gives Cousins an in-season starting role plus easy stacking partners like David Njoku or Cedric Tillman for Week-17 correlation. Given those outs, the tout framed Cousins as asymmetrical upside at a rock-bottom price in both Superflex and traditional Best Ball Mania builds.

Tyler Knaeble called Kirk Cousins "the best Eliminator pick ever" because drafters "know what you’re going to get from him right away." Minnesota opens the season against Chicago, and Knaeble believes Cousins’ reliable Week 1 production makes him a perfect complement to his existing Lamar Jackson share, eliminating the need for a third quarterback. The early matchup and Cousins’ historically steady passing output serve as a safety net for advancing past the first weekly cut in the Eliminator format.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound pointed to Kirk Cousins as an egregious mis-price in SuperFlex drafts, noting he just snagged Cousins at pick 186 while the live ADP sits at 187. He reminded viewers that Cousins was pacing for a top-10 fantasy finish before the Achilles tear and now steps into Arthur Smith’s pass-friendly offense with Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Pat believes the only reason for the slide is vague recovery timelines, but he emphasized the contest will not even reach its 12-week regular season if Cousins is still sidelined. Because quarterback thirst pushes marginal starters like Daniel Jones into the 120s, Cousins’ combination of ceiling and dollar-store cost makes him a perfect QB3 stash on two-early-QB builds and a high-leverage leverage pick whose ADP ‘still has plenty of room to move up’.

Jonathan Jones advised bettors to pump the brakes on any Day‑2 or Day‑3 trade props involving Kirk Cousins. Jones said Atlanta is insisting the acquiring club absorb essentially the entire two‑year, $90‑million deal Cousins signed in March, a financial ask he called "a non‑starter" for most teams. Front‑office sources told Jones the Falcons have placed a fourth‑ or fifth‑round valuation on Cousins, but those rounds do not begin until Saturday. If no partner agrees to swallow the money this weekend, Atlanta would wait and accept 2026 draft compensation instead of discounting the salary. Jones concluded that the market is overestimating the likelihood of a draft‑weekend deal and recommended bettors look to the "No" side on any Cousins‑trade specials.