Brooke Cersosimo called Lamar Jackson "the ultimate chess piece" and expects him to dictate terms against Brian Flores’ blitz-centric defense. Minnesota harassed Jared Goff last week, but Cersosimo stressed that Goff is not a two-time MVP with Derrick Henry riding shotgun in the backfield. Baltimore’s defense has held opponents to 13 points per game since Week 6, giving Jackson favorable scripts. She likes the Ravens to cover ‑4.5 and projects top-five fantasy output from Jackson via explosive scrambles and play-action shots.

For the third leg of his SGP, Osborne highlighted Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown, noting Miami has already yielded a league-high four rushing TDs to quarterbacks this season. He expects the Dolphins to bring extra pressure to mask a secondary that is 26th in yards allowed per pass attempt. That aggressive approach opens scramble lanes, and Lamar’s dual-threat pedigree (30+ rushing yards in every start, three rushing scores through Week 8) makes him the most likely player on the field to turn a broken play into six. With Baltimore projected for 30-plus points in Vegas team totals and Lamar accounting for 71% of the Ravens’ red-zone touches, Osborne believes + odds on an anytime score are mis-priced.

Tipster bet Lamar Jackson Over 234.5 passing yards (-115). Miami has permitted 265 passing yards per game since Week 4 and could be without both starting safeties (Ifeatu Melifonwu, Ashtyn Davis). If the Dolphins stack the box to slow Derrick Henry, Jackson’s play-action game to Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews should clear the number comfortably.

Rohit Ponnaiya advised taking the Under 6.5 rushing attempts prop on Lamar Jackson for Thursday Night Football. Ponnaiya questioned Jackson’s claim of being 100% after missing Sunday’s must-win game with a hamstring injury, arguing that a four-day turnaround is unlikely to leave him fully healed. He expects the lingering hamstring issue to reduce Jackson’s willingness to scramble, especially with Miami’s “feeble” pass rush unlikely to flush him from the pocket. Jackson has logged fewer than 6.5 carries in three of his four starts this season, a trend Ponnaiya believes will hold in Week 9.

Walder projected a double-digit Ravens victory over Kansas City. He argued Detroit’s success last week stemmed from a dominant ground attack, something the Chiefs lack (ranked 28th in rush EPA). Without a credible run threat to slow Roquan Smith’s front, Walder expects Baltimore’s offense (already league-leading 111 points despite a 1-2 record) to separate while its defense plays lighter boxes. The call makes Baltimore –2.5 a strong ATS play and presents value on alternative-spread markets.

Tipster also played Lamar Over 44.5 rushing yards. Designed keepers plus scramble frequency rise in primetime, and Baltimore’s red-zone boots add bonus upside. In game scripts where the Ravens protect a lead, late-down scrambles alone can push him into the 50s. Confidence grade: 3/5.

LM Tipster bet Lamar Jackson Over 235.5 passing yards at ‑115. Detroit must allocate an extra safety to contain QB run, which opens intermediate windows for Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. The Lions run heavy doses of single-high and man coverage, schemes Jackson historically shreds (8.6 YPA vs single-high looks since 2023). Yardage can pile up without a single deep bomb. Confidence grade: 4/5.

Matt Russell took Over 285.5 combined passing and rushing yards for Lamar Jackson, dubbing it the “Lamar does stuff” prop. Jackson has already finished just shy of this mark twice in 2025 but ceded late-game snaps in comfortable wins. When pushed by opponents that can score—prime-time tilts against the Bengals, Chiefs, Buccaneers and 49ers over the past two seasons—he routinely tops 300 total yards. Facing a Detroit defense dotted with injury red letters in a matchup carrying a 53.5 total, Russell expects another full-tilt performance that clears the posted number.

John M. Anderson said a Lamar Jackson passing-yards over is the first prop he would circle for Monday night, noting that the line sits around 250 yards. He expects Baltimore to lean on Jackson’s arm to exploit what he calls a vulnerable Lions secondary, especially with Detroit likely keying on his designed runs. Anderson added that Jackson’s ability to extend plays outside structure should pad his yardage total and pointed out that the Ravens are 3.5-point home favorites, a game script that sets up for four full quarters of passing volume if Detroit keeps it close.

John Laghezza declared it “basically impossible” to name three players who will outscore Lamar Jackson this season and happily clicks him in the mid-third. The two-time MVP just set career bests in yards per attempt, passer rating, EPA per drop-back, interception rate, and sack rate. Laghezza noted the fantasy talent pool hits a clear tier break at that point, so he grabs the dual-threat QB1 before it does.

Tom Strachan said Lamar Jackson should be a top priority because drafters are letting last year’s overall QB1 slide to QB2 prices. Strachan reminded readers that Jackson has logged 130-plus rushing attempts in every season except one, led the NFL with 8.8 yards per attempt, and averaged three more fantasy points per game than Josh Allen in 2024. He noted that Baltimore’s surrounding talent is the best it has ever been: Rashod Bateman is coming off a career year and Zay Flowers just became the franchise’s first Pro Bowl wideout. With elite rushing volume and an upgraded receiving corps, Strachan believes even mild regression still leaves Jackson with week-winning upside that justifies taking him in the late-third/early-fourth round of 2025 drafts.

Neil Orfield said he is taking Lamar Jackson ahead of Josh Allen in Best Ball Mania rooms. Jackson’s Weeks 15-17 road is Cincinnati, New England and Green Bay – a trio Orfield labeled “a good schedule” compared with Buffalo’s potential slog against Cleveland. He added that Todd Monken has made Baltimore’s passing attack dependable, letting Jackson pile fantasy points through the air on top of his rushing. Orfield thinks the softer playoff slate plus the new-look offensive scheme give Jackson the higher overall ceiling and is comfortable clicking him whenever the choice is Jackson vs. Allen.

Erik Beimfohr said Lamar Jackson is the quarterback he is prioritizing in 2025 best-ball drafts because the combination of elite rushing production, deeper skill-position talent and a real chance the Ravens defense regresses gives Jackson both an every-week 20-point floor and frequent 40-point spike weeks. Beimfohr pointed out that Baltimore added explosive scat-back Keaton Mitchell, multiple wide-receiver upgrades over Nelson Agholor and still retains a deep tight-end room, which means Jackson will have more yards after the catch and screen opportunities. If Derrick Henry misses any time, Beimfohr expects the offense to tilt entirely toward Jackson, amplifying his ceiling. He contrasted this with Buffalo occasionally limiting Josh Allen’s rushing and pass attempts, which has produced disappointing 12-point weeks that Jackson rarely delivers, and concluded that Jackson is "the best quarterback on the planet" for fantasy purposes.

Erik Beimfohr argued that drafters are sleeping on Lamar Jackson, calling him the most talented quarterback in the league and the ideal pick for an elite-QB roster construction. Jackson already owns an MVP season with a 45-TD, 5-INT passing line and unrivaled rushing juice, yet Beimfohr believes his true fantasy ceiling has not been reached. The 2025 Ravens add Derrick Henry, forcing defenses into heavy boxes that they cannot lighten against Jackson’s option runs, and their pass-catcher group is better than credited: Zay Flowers looks like a borderline star, Rashod Bateman is a competent boundary target, DeAndre Hopkins provides chain-moving depth, and the team still boasts multiple athletic tight ends. That combination gives Jackson both a high weekly floor and the ability to spike 35-plus points. Beimfohr recommends grabbing Jackson in the late-second/early-third round of best-ball drafts instead of defaulting to Mahomes or Allen, betting on his rare 80-yard play ability and newly upgraded supporting cast.

Ian Hartitz ranked Lamar Jackson QB2 but cautioned the Ravens star logged zero carries inside the five last season, a stark contrast to Jalen Hurts (147.4 inside-five fantasy points) and Josh Allen (93). While Jackson still owns two of the six highest-scoring fantasy seasons ever, Hartitz argued the absence of red-zone rushing opportunities is enough to drop him behind Allen for 2025 ceiling. He is still comfortable drafting Jackson in Round 3 but warned drafters not to assume QB1 overall returns without a goal-line role.

Erik Beimfohr said Lamar Jackson should be drafted ahead of every other quarterback in best-ball this summer. Baltimore has added explosive scat-back Keaton Mitchell while keeping the dependable Justice Hill, giving Jackson more play-makers than ever. Beimfohr argued that if the Ravens’ defense regresses even a little Todd Munkin will lean on Lamar, creating routine 40-point fantasy weeks on top of a 20-point rushing floor. He contrasted that with Buffalo occasionally limiting Josh Allen to 28 pass attempts and few designed runs, producing 12-point duds Jackson never posts. In his view the combination of weekly floor and unrivaled ceiling fully justifies grabbing Jackson in the early third round—or earlier—especially because stacking him is now so cheap.

Erik Beimfohr argued Lamar Jackson is the best quarterback in the league and still under-drafted relative to his fantasy ceiling. He noted Jackson already owns an MVP season with 45 TDs and only 5 INTs and now gets his most talented supporting cast yet: Derrick Henry in the backfield forces heavy boxes, Zay Flowers looks like a budding star, Rashod Bateman is a capable boundary option, and depth pieces such as DeAndre Hopkins, Tylan Wallace, Tez Walker and return ace Lajante Wester are upgrades on last year’s WR3 mix. Even scat-back Keaton Mitchell’s return plus Justice Hill’s reliability give Todd Monken more explosive screen and tempo packages. If the Ravens’ defense regresses and Jackson is asked to win shoot-outs, Beimfohr expects regular 40-point fantasy weeks thanks to Lamar’s unmatched rushing floor and newly expanded passing weaponry. His draft advice: prioritize Jackson in the elite-QB tier—especially on builds that bet on Baltimore shoot-outs—and let his weekly ceiling carry onesie production.

Best Ball Guy called Lamar Jackson his overall QB1 and labeled the Lamar-Zay Flowers pairing a 'premium stack that is basically free.' Taking Jackson at the early Round-3/4 turn allows drafters to scoop Flowers in Round 5 every single time, securing correlation for the Ravens-Bengals Week 15 matchup. Because Flowers’ ADP lags relative to his projected target share, the combo delivers elite upside at a bargain price and remains overlooked in most rooms, giving drafters both value and uniqueness.

Chuck Bass advocated spending a third-round pick on Lamar Jackson, explaining he wants players who are 'firmly one of the three best at their position.' Bass said Jackson is 'just like waking up and dropping 35 touchdowns every year now' and announced he has pivoted away from waiting on mid-tier quarterbacks such as Justin Fields, Drake Maye, and Dak Prescott. In Bass’s view, locking in Jackson’s weekly ceiling and rushing floor is the cleaner path to a BBM6 finals roster than hoping a later QB pops.

Hayden Winks urged drafters to smash Lamar Jackson at pick 25 because the separation he provides over replacement-level quarterbacks is massive. Jackson averaged 8.2 more fantasy points per game than QB12 last season and now returns to an offense that lost no starters, added DeAndre Hopkins, and still has Todd Monken calling plays. Winks highlighted Jackson’s development inside the pocket—29-to-1 TD-INT ratio on throws made 2.5 seconds after the snap—and a 61.4 percent touchdown rate on end-zone passes, the second-best figure of the 2000s (27 TDs on 44 attempts). His 915 rushing yards and four scores give him an unrivaled weekly floor, and while Derrick Henry handled 95 percent of Baltimore’s carries inside the five last year, Henry’s mileage means goal-line equity could swing back to Jackson if injuries strike. Underdog data shows 30 percent of Jackson-drafting teams finished first or second, reinforcing Winks’ stance that he is a round-three cheat code.

Dwain McFarland labelled Lamar Jackson a Round 3 "strategy pillar." Jackson produced 26.0 fantasy PPG in 2024 (QB1) after 21.8 and 20.4 the prior two seasons and carries a 22.5 median/28.5 ceiling projection. Under Todd Monken, Baltimore’s pass volume remains modest (-4 % DBOE, 27th) but extremely efficient: 245 YPG, 8.8 YPA and 2.41 TDs per game in 2024. Jackson’s 19 % designed-rush rate and 8 % scramble rate keep 1,000-yard ground seasons in play, and a backfield pairing with Derrick Henry forces defenses to defend every gap. Although goal-line usage is light (4 %), McFarland trusts Jackson’s weekly rushing plus improved play-action attack to deliver top-three upside with an 18-point floor.

Best Ball Guy added that the three-QB rule has an important exception: if you spend early draft capital on a true difference-maker like Lamar Jackson (he mentioned Jaden Daniels and Jalen Hurts in the same breath), you can comfortably forgo a third quarterback and even consider running the roster with only that one elite passer. In his view Jackson’s combination of rushing floor and spike-week ceiling provides enough weekly stability in the cutline format that the roster spot is more profitably used on an upside running back or wide receiver instead of a redundant depth quarterback.

Best Ball Guy explained why he loves Lamar Jackson in the middle of round 3: Zay Flowers regularly drifts to pick 56, giving drafters a cheap, high-upside double pick that stays unique relative to early-QB builders. The combo captures Baltimore’s concentrated passing ceiling while freeing earlier capital for elite WR starts such as Malik Neighbors and A.J. Brown. Because the board often pushes Jackson behind Hurts and Burrow, the tout sees room for closing-line value if Jackson flashes in preseason and jumps a half-round.

Andrew Avery said Lamar Jackson is worth a bet at +550 to win MVP at BetMGM. Avery likes that Jackson enters 2025 with a chip on his shoulder after many believed he out-played eventual winner Josh Allen last season. He pointed to Jackson’s "off-the-charts" 2024 regular-season numbers and noted MVP voters often shy away from back-to-back winners, creating a potential over-correction in Jackson’s favor after finishing runner-up. Continuity is another selling point: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry, the wide-receiver group and most of the offensive line all return, giving Jackson year-over-year stability that few contenders enjoy. Because the award is regular-season only, Avery is unconcerned about any lingering playoff narrative. He expects Jackson to be in the final two-to-three names discussed and believes +550 offers enough value to fire now.

Tony Farmer recommended Lamar Jackson at +550 (BetMGM) to win the 2025 MVP. Farmer said Jackson posted MVP-caliber numbers last season and carries a chip on his shoulder after many analysts felt he deserved the award over Josh Allen. Because MVP voting ignores postseason results—where critics question Jackson—the Ravens quarterback can lean on his elite dual-threat efficiency and a still-loaded Baltimore roster to replicate or exceed last year’s statistics, making the price attractive.

Mike Wright ranked Lamar Jackson as his overall QB1 after Jackson logged top-12 fantasy finishes in 16 games and 25.3 points per game last year—the second-best mark of his career. Wright expects Year 2 in Todd Monken’s offense to unlock 4,000 passing-yard potential while Jackson’s rushing floor remains north of 800 yards. He believes Derrick Henry’s presence will force defenses to stack the box, creating even wider running lanes for Jackson. Because Jackson goes a few picks after Josh Allen yet offers a loftier ceiling and comparable floor, Wright sees him as an early-third-round steal.

Best Ball Guy said drafting Lamar Jackson in the middle of the third round is one of his favorite moves right now. Jackson’s ADP pairs perfectly with Zay Flowers in the mid-fifth, giving drafters an inexpensive, high-upside stack. He noted that a Flowers 25-point spike week usually comes alongside one of Jackson’s 35-point dual-threat blow-ups, creating massive best-ball advance equity. Because of that inexpensive correlation he prefers Lamar over Josh Allen at similar cost and is hammering the combo in $40 Husky drafts.

Candayman said he is hammering Lamar Jackson any time the quarterback slips to the middle of the third round because Zay Flowers has fallen nearly a full round and is now routinely available in the fifth. That gives drafters ‘better than a 50 percent’ chance to land the premium Ravens double stack. Candayman leaned on last season’s redraft experience, noting that Jackson/Flowers combinations either blew up for 180-plus points or dragged the entire lineup when Baltimore’s offense face-planted, the exact boom-bust profile you want in Best Ball tournaments. With Flowers formerly priced in the fourth, the new ADP discount creates what he called a “premium stack” that is easier to complete than alternatives in the same range such as Kyren Williams, Davante Adams or Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound pushed for taking Lamar Jackson at the Round-3 turn, noting the drafter was "under" on both Jackson and Josh Allen. He reminded viewers that last summer the elite quarterbacks steamed into the second round and still paid off, so a cheaper third-round Lamar offers built-in closing-line value. Pat likes locking in a 25-plus-point weekly ceiling early, freeing later picks for upside receivers and running backs instead of chasing uncertain QB2 breakouts. In short, he treated discounted elite QB as a structural advantage in current Best Ball lobbies.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he is comfortable taking Lamar Jackson 1.01 in a super-flex dynasty start-up and would draft him ahead of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and the incoming rookie quarterbacks. He argued Todd Monken has "unlocked" Jackson, pointing to last season’s 41 passing touchdowns, a top-five EPA per dropback mark under Monken, and the fact that Baltimore returns the same offensive line and skill group in 2025. Pat dismissed worries about touchdown regression, noting Monken’s QBs have historically remained pass-efficient year over year. Because Jackson still provides elite rushing volume, Pat believes he combines the highest weekly ceiling with a rock-solid floor, making him the optimal foundational pick for both dynasty and Best Ball tournament builds.

Candayman was emphatic that Lamar Jackson should be selected ahead of Josh Allen among elite quarterbacks this season. He argued that Todd Monken’s system has "unlocked" Lamar, pointing to the coordinator’s willingness to lean into play-action and tempo that helped Jackson post a career-best 8.0 yards per attempt and 67% completion rate over the final eight games of 2023. While acknowledging Allen’s ceiling, Candayman expects Baltimore’s passing volume to remain elevated, making Lamar’s dual-threat profile even more valuable. That offensive stability, plus fewer weather-concern games on the Ravens’ schedule, moves Jackson to the top of Candayman’s QB board for both best-ball and managed leagues.

Mike Clay said fantasy drafters should actively pay a third- or fourth-round price to secure one of the “Big 4” quarterbacks—Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Jayden Daniels—because their legs create a weekly edge that pocket passers simply cannot match. The quartet averaged 742 rushing yards and nine rushing TDs last season; none dipped below 531 yards or six scores. By comparison, Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield combined for just 579 rushing yards and five TDs yet needed 40-plus passing TDs to keep pace—something that has been achieved more than once by only seven quarterbacks in NFL history. Clay concluded that the floor/ceiling combo supplied by elite rushing volume justifies the early capital, and if you whiff on this tier you should wait a long time before addressing quarterback.

Nick Whalen placed Lamar Jackson in the same "set-and-forget" tier as Josh Allen. He acknowledged last season’s career-high 41 passing touchdowns may regress, yet emphasized the Ravens’ coaching continuity, strong offensive line and red-zone efficiency (74 % of trips ended in TDs) keep Jackson’s weekly floor extremely high. Although Jackson carries slightly more injury concern than Allen, Whalen still views him as one of the only quarterbacks worthy of an early-round pick because the rushing baseline plus improving passing totals have made him remarkably safe year over year.

Hayden Winks said Lamar Jackson is one of the easiest early-round clicks in both best ball and redraft builds. Winks argued that elite quarterbacks are still mispriced in half-PPR formats because you "chop points off every other position except quarterback," giving zero-RB drafters a weekly floor that wide receivers cannot match. He added that Jackson is only 28, squarely in his athletic prime, and returns to the same offensive coordinator, eliminating scheme-change risk. Given those factors, Winks sees no reason to forecast decline and routinely grabs Jackson at the 2-3 turn instead of chasing another wideout.

Sean Koerner projected inevitable touchdown regression for Lamar Jackson after last year’s 41-4 TD-INT masterpiece but still slotted him inside his own top tier with Josh Allen. Koerner’s median line is 28.5 passing TDs, 7.5 INTs and another near-1,000 rushing-yard season— numbers that remain "elite with massive rushing upside" because nothing in Baltimore’s setup changed: Todd Monken’s scheme, Derrick Henry’s gravity, and Jackson’s prime athletic window. While he doubts Jackson can repeat 2024’s historic efficiency, Koerner sees virtually no scenario where a healthy Jackson falls out of the weekly top-5, making him worth an early pick whenever the draft room lets him slide after Allen.

Steve Palazzolo said Lamar Jackson should again be treated as a top-tier fantasy quarterback after back-to-back healthy seasons that produced one MVP and even better follow-up numbers. Palazzolo emphasized the supporting cast upgrade—Derrick Henry’s power runs forcing lighter boxes, Zay Flowers’ second-year leap, a cheap flier on DeAndre Hopkins, and both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely at tight end. He argued that Lamar’s dual-threat skill set masks any lingering offensive-line concerns, routinely "opens it up for Henry" and allows Baltimore to post elite efficiency regardless of pass-protection grades. Given the Ravens’ habit of blowing out quality opponents and Jackson’s capacity to "take over any game at any time," Palazzolo projected another top-3 fantasy finish and labeled him a weekly DFS cornerstone.

McFarland endorsed Lamar Jackson at his Round-3 ADP (pick 26-27) as a rock-solid alternative to Allen. Jackson just finished as overall QB1 with career-best passing marks (245 YPG, 8.8 YPA, 2.41 pass TDs). Regression is expected, but Todd Monken’s scheme still uses 29% play action and fuels high efficiency. While Jackson only gets 4% of Baltimore’s inside-the-five rushes (22nd among QBs), he ranks 4th in designed run rate (19%) and 7th in scramble rate (8%), keeping 1,000-yard rushing seasons firmly in play. Model range: 18.3 floor, 22.5 median, 28.5 ceiling PPG. McFarland advises scooping him when Round-3 RB/WR options feel uninspiring.

Hayden Winks said Lamar Jackson should be the first name considered in both MVP futures and season-long fantasy drafts. Winks highlighted Jackson’s outrageous efficiency when holding the ball 2.5+ seconds last year (29 TDs, 1 INT) and noted he finished #1 in PFF grading, #1 in positively graded throws, and owned the league’s lowest interception rate on middle-field passes. With Todd Monken calling plays, Jackson is now a true pocket passer plus an elite runner, and at 28 his athletic juice has not dipped. Winks added that Derrick Henry’s arrival will stress linebackers on play-action, creating even wider throwing lanes. He believes the gap between Jackson and the rest of the league has never been smaller, making him a slam-dunk MVP bet and an early-round season-long anchor.

Jeff Erickson said to play Lamar Jackson over 750.5 rushing yards at –110. Jackson has cleared this number in six consecutive seasons and posted 915 yards in 2024, so Erickson views the prop as nothing more than a bet on health. He is unconcerned about Derrick Henry’s arrival siphoning carries, noting last year’s volume stayed intact once Gus Edwards was replaced. With Baltimore’s offense again structured around Jackson’s legs and the quarterback historically durable enough to log at least 15 games in four of the last five campaigns, Erickson expects another 800-plus yard season and called the price fair.

Best Ball Guy explained that he has been ‘pulling up’ Lamar Jackson to the 2-3 turn specifically so he can pair the Ravens quarterback with new-Packer Josh Jacobs for Week-17 correlation. He thinks the late-December matchup in Green Bay is almost tailor-made for a “one team throws, one team runs” blow-up: Jackson’s arm and legs against what figures to be a snowy Lambeau, while Jacobs pounds the rock on the other side. The combo gives him access to both projected game scripts, raises his Superflex weekly floor, and is nearly impossible for the room to replicate because most drafters wait a full round before they even consider Jacobs. BBG added that Derrick Henry–Jordan Love is a viable back-door mini-stack for drafters picking from the opposite side of the board, but his preferred route is Jackson/Jacobs because it captures elite QB scoring plus a workhorse back who could handle 25 carries if the weather turns nasty.

Kevin Szafraniec advised prioritizing Lamar Jackson (and Josh Allen) because 2024 draft rooms let you grab their key partners in the cheap seats. With Jackson, Zay Flowers sometimes slips and Kevin is fine layering in Rashod Bateman plus either Ravens tight end long after QB selection. That gives you an inexpensive, high-ceiling Baltimore stack without burning early-round capital on ancillary pieces. Allen functions as a nearly standalone bet, but Kevin sprinkles Khalil Shakir and late-dart receivers to round it out. The takeaway: paying up for an elite quarterback is viable in Best Ball Mania V because the associated stack cost is dramatically lower than it is for, say, Tua–Tyreek or Mahomes–Kelce.

Jason Moore advised drafting Lamar Jackson ahead of Josh Allen despite Allen’s current ADP as the first quarterback off the board. Moore pointed out that Buffalo has pivoted to a run-heavy identity (pass rate down from 57% to 48% and Allen’s yardage falling from 4,400-plus to 3,700). Meanwhile, Jackson ‘smoked him last year’ by averaging 30 fantasy points per game thanks to 821 rushing yards and improved passing efficiency in Todd Monken’s system. Moore expects Jackson to again out-rush and out-pass Allen, so paying the same early-round cost for Allen makes little sense when Jackson offers the higher floor and ceiling.

Brandon Anderson warned bettors not to lump Baltimore in with Buffalo and Kansas City when shopping AFC futures. He actually called the Ravens the most complete roster top-to-bottom, but still slotted them third because of what he considers the single biggest fragility point in the conference: Lamar Jackson’s health. Jackson has already missed nine games the past three seasons and his high-exposure rushing style only amplifies that risk. Anderson noted the drop-off behind him is massive—Cooper Rush is the current QB2—so even a three-week absence could turn Baltimore’s season. He also pointed out the Ravens’ special-teams safety net disappeared (bottom-10 DVOA last year and no Justin Tucker now) and the AFC North is the deepest in football, meaning stray divisional losses are far more likely than what Kansas City or Buffalo face. His conclusion: Ravens division, win-total, and No. 1-seed tickets are priced like a sure thing when they are anything but.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafting Lamar Jackson without attaching any Baltimore pass-catchers is perfectly acceptable in Underdog’s single-entry Greyhound format. He pointed to last year’s finals roster where a completely unstacked Jackson still pumped out 29.4 fantasy points, reminding listeners that Lamar’s rushing production can carry a lineup by itself. Pat emphasized that because you save ADP capital you would have spent on expensive Ravens receivers, the ‘cheaper the stack, the better’—often meaning no stack at all—making naked Lamar a consistently viable, salary-efficient tourney play.

Adam Caplan said he actually cast his vote for Lamar Jackson and is betting the Ravens quarterback at +500 to win the AP MVP. Caplan reminded listeners the award covers the entire regular season, not just a hot stretch, and argued Jackson delivered the most complete 17-game body of work in 2023 while Josh Allen merely caught fire late. Jackson already owns a previous MVP and led Baltimore to the AFC’s best record, giving voters a narrative the other candidates lack. Caplan compared the rest of the market – Allen (+600), Patrick Mahomes (+650) and Joe Burrow (+700) – and concluded Jackson’s 5-to-1 return is still worth an investment.

Discussing Underdog’s Weekly Winners contest, Davis Mattek said drafters should throw traditional ADP out the window and chase pure ceiling. He explained that unlike Best Ball Mania— where you only need to clear 12- and 16-team pods before a 539-person final— Weekly Winners requires beating the entire field each individual week. Because you must "build the absolute nuts," Mattek recommended scooping players with week-breaking upside regardless of their normal draft slot, even advocating grabbing Lamar Jackson in Round 1 if you think he can deliver a 40-point eruption. Mattek believes the one-week, top-heavy payout structure favors extreme upside portfolios and creative roster constructions rather than balanced, ADP-obedient builds.

Jason Moore warned that Lamar Jackson’s 2024 touchdown binge is a classic trap for fantasy drafters. Jackson spiked to an 8.6% TD rate last year, vaulting from 24 to 41 passing scores despite only a modest increase in attempts. Moore noted Jackson’s three previous seasons lived in a far more normal 4.2–5.3% range, the exact pattern we saw from Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before inevitable pull-backs. Because touchdowns are one of the least sticky stats year over year, Moore is downgrading Jackson from a locked-in top-3 quarterback to the back half of the QB1 tier and advising managers to let someone else pay for last season’s outlier. He used the same logic to flag similar regression candidates—Baker Mayfield (7.2% TD rate) and Jared Goff (6.9%)—but said Jackson’s ADP makes him the clearest fade.

Pete Overzet cautioned managers who prefer three late quarterbacks that completely fading Lamar Jackson is portfolio suicide. He reminded listeners that Jackson owns a true 40-point weekly ceiling—something few passers can match—and if that spike occurs in the fantasy playoffs you will "have to have him" to reach the BBM6 finals. Overzet likened it to DFS: even if the early-round WR + late-QB 2v2 projects slightly better in median points, it ignores the tail scenario where Jackson drops consecutive 35-plus outings. He advised sprinkling in Jackson builds, especially with cheap Rashod Bateman or Isaiah Likely bring-backs, so your portfolio captures that high-end outcome instead of praying it never happens.

Pete Overzet normally waits on quarterbacks but could not pass on Lamar Jackson sliding six spots past ADP to pick 42. He noted that Hayden Winks’ newly released ranks have Jackson 24th overall, reinforcing the closing line value. Overzet sees Jackson as the cheapest path to an elite dual-threat ceiling after finishing 2023 top-five in fantasy points per drop-back and rushing for 59 yards per game. Grabbing that profile three picks into the fourth round gives his roster a weekly spike-week advantage while still leaving room to stockpile wide receivers later.