Discussing Underdog’s Weekly Winners contest, Davis Mattek said drafters should throw traditional ADP out the window and chase pure ceiling. He explained that unlike Best Ball Mania— where you only need to clear 12- and 16-team pods before a 539-person final— Weekly Winners requires beating the entire field each individual week. Because you must "build the absolute nuts," Mattek recommended scooping players with week-breaking upside regardless of their normal draft slot, even advocating grabbing Lamar Jackson in Round 1 if you think he can deliver a 40-point eruption. Mattek believes the one-week, top-heavy payout structure favors extreme upside portfolios and creative roster constructions rather than balanced, ADP-obedient builds.

Jason Moore warned that Lamar Jackson’s 2024 touchdown binge is a classic trap for fantasy drafters. Jackson spiked to an 8.6% TD rate last year, vaulting from 24 to 41 passing scores despite only a modest increase in attempts. Moore noted Jackson’s three previous seasons lived in a far more normal 4.2–5.3% range, the exact pattern we saw from Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before inevitable pull-backs. Because touchdowns are one of the least sticky stats year over year, Moore is downgrading Jackson from a locked-in top-3 quarterback to the back half of the QB1 tier and advising managers to let someone else pay for last season’s outlier. He used the same logic to flag similar regression candidates—Baker Mayfield (7.2% TD rate) and Jared Goff (6.9%)—but said Jackson’s ADP makes him the clearest fade.

Pete Overzet cautioned managers who prefer three late quarterbacks that completely fading Lamar Jackson is portfolio suicide. He reminded listeners that Jackson owns a true 40-point weekly ceiling—something few passers can match—and if that spike occurs in the fantasy playoffs you will "have to have him" to reach the BBM6 finals. Overzet likened it to DFS: even if the early-round WR + late-QB 2v2 projects slightly better in median points, it ignores the tail scenario where Jackson drops consecutive 35-plus outings. He advised sprinkling in Jackson builds, especially with cheap Rashod Bateman or Isaiah Likely bring-backs, so your portfolio captures that high-end outcome instead of praying it never happens.

Pete Overzet normally waits on quarterbacks but could not pass on Lamar Jackson sliding six spots past ADP to pick 42. He noted that Hayden Winks’ newly released ranks have Jackson 24th overall, reinforcing the closing line value. Overzet sees Jackson as the cheapest path to an elite dual-threat ceiling after finishing 2023 top-five in fantasy points per drop-back and rushing for 59 yards per game. Grabbing that profile three picks into the fourth round gives his roster a weekly spike-week advantage while still leaving room to stockpile wide receivers later.