Jess Root recommended OVER 3.5 receptions for Luke Musgrave at +120 despite the rookie never topping three grabs all year. His angle is the season-ending torn ACL suffered by fellow tight end Tucker Kraft. Kraft logged four different games with at least four receptions, vacating short-area targets that now funnel to Musgrave. Musgrave hauled in three passes last week and only needs one extra catch to cash this ticket, a jump Root believes is well within reach given the schematic reliance on tight ends underneath.

Mason Cameron advised betting the UNDER 31.5 receiving yards for Luke Musgrave at ‑118. Musgrave will be the Packers’ full-time tight end with Tucker Kraft lost for the season, but Cameron stressed that last week’s 34 yards came against a Carolina defense carrying a league-worst 29.1 PFF coverage grade versus tight ends. Philadelphia is the polar opposite: one of only two teams allowing negative EPA per play on TE targets (-0.061), an NFL-low 5.2 yards per coverage target, and a 64% completion rate to the position. With that matchup plus Green Bay’s tendency to funnel targets to wideouts against man coverage, Cameron expects Musgrave to struggle to crack 30 yards.

Root recommended the OVER 3.5 receptions for Luke Musgrave at +120, arguing the number hasn’t been adjusted for tight-end injuries. Tucker Kraft is out for the season with a torn ACL after logging four different games of 4+ catches, vacating a big chunk of short-area usage. Musgrave caught three balls last week and now absorbs Kraft’s routes, so he only needs one additional grab to eclipse the line. Root called the prop a great price for a player stepping into a materially larger target share.

Bill Barnwell urged drafters to circle Luke Musgrave in the 18th round now that teammate Tucker Kraft has vaulted into the 12th. Barnwell pointed out that the market has effectively flipped its 2023 stance without new evidence that Kraft has truly overtaken Musgrave. He reminded viewers that Musgrave still owns Day-2 draft capital and flashed 2.00 yards per route run before his injury last season. With Green Bay’s tight-end room otherwise relying on a 31-year-old vet coming off an ACL tear, Barnwell sees a clear scenario where Musgrave reclaims TE1 duties—or at worst splits routes 50/50—while costing six full rounds less than Kraft. That combination of contingent upside and closing-line value makes Musgrave one of Barnwell’s favorite back-door tight ends in four-TE Best Ball Mania builds.