Josh said grabbing Nick Chubb in the 20th round of a dynasty Superflex start-up is worth the two late picks he traded away. Chubb looked bad in 2024 while rehabbing a second major knee injury, but Josh expects roughly 80 % of Chubb’s old burst in 2025. More important is situation: new Texans OC Nick Caley is installing a gap-heavy rushing scheme that mirrors what Chubb dominated with in Cleveland. Against the remaining player pool—seventh-round rookie Shakori Kroski-Merritt, Rico Dowdle, Austin Ekeler, Zach Moss, Sean Tucker, etc.—Chubb has, in Josh’s words, “the best chance to touch the rock.” Even if Woody Marks siphons most of the targets, Chubb’s projected early-down and goal-line volume makes him a plug-and-play RB2 for win-now dynasty teams at an extreme discount.

After news broke that Joe Mixon will be sidelined until at least Week 1, Josh traded up for Nick Chubb, arguing that— even coming off a rough 2024 and major knee surgery— Chubb still owns the clearest path to touches among backs left on the board. By comparison, seventh-round rookie Krosky Merritt, veteran Austin Ekeler, and depth names like Rico Dowdle or Zack Moss offer far shakier workload assurances. In Josh’s eyes, betting on Chubb’s secure volume outweighs the medical risk at this stage of a superflex draft.

Ian Hartitz cautioned managers against drafting Nick Chubb in 2025. Chubb broke his foot in December after suffering a catastrophic knee injury the previous season, and Hartitz reminded listeners that most backs need two full years—not one—to regain explosiveness. Chubb also logged more than 450 touches in his last two healthy campaigns, increasing reinjury risk. Without a pass-catching role to buoy his fantasy floor and no guarantee he’s ready for Week 1, Hartitz thinks Chubb is being drafted on ‘Adrian Peterson miracle’ memories that are unlikely to repeat.

Ciely argued that Nick Chubb should already be coming off the board ahead of Mixon because Chubb is healthy and slated to open the season as Houston’s primary ball-carrier. While Chubb’s 2024 efficiency was merely average, Ciely expects him to own early-down and goal-line work for at least the first month – valuable touches Mixon can’t claim while sidelined. Even if Chubb offers little in the passing game (Ciely projects only 10 receptions), that rushing workload provides short-term RB2 usability, and drafters can reassess once Mixon’s status clarifies. At current pricing Chubb is, in Ciely’s words, “the sensible play for anyone needing bankable carries in September.”

Josh expects Nick Chubb—currently RB53 on Underdog and RB48 in many home leagues—to open the year as Houston’s primary early-down runner if Joe Mixon’s ankle sidelines him. Although the 28-year-old looked sluggish on 2024 film and is coming off a broken foot, Josh thinks the Texans’ new Nick Kaylee rushing scheme plus a bolstered interior line will manufacture enough daylight for Chubb to outproduce backs drafted in the same tier. Woody Marks profiles strictly as a receiving complement, so Chubb should handle most carries inside the tackles until (or unless) the team trades for outside help.

Pat Kerrane slammed the brakes on Nick Chubb’s rising ADP after reading D’Amico Ryans’ brutally honest assessment: "Guys age… It’s not always going to be the same as his early years." Kerrane noted that Ryans highlighted Chubb’s mileage, ongoing recovery, and need to "eek out yards"—language eerily similar to what New England coaches said about a washed Ezekiel Elliott. With Chubb turning 29 and still "working his way back," Kerrane sees little chance the veteran ever reclaims his pre-injury explosiveness. He is now off Chubb entirely, calling any price chase on a "Hall-of-Fame talent" wishful thinking and likening it to last summer’s ill-fated optimism on late-career running backs such as Zeke and Dalvin Cook.

Pat Kerrane bailed on the Nick Chubb experiment after reading the brutally honest D’Amico Ryans quote: “Guys age… he’s been through a lot… it’s not always going to be the same as his early years.” Kerrane called it the most bearish coach-speak he has ever seen, equating it to the way New England talked about Ezekiel Elliott. The acknowledgment that Chubb is "still working his way back" two years post-injury led Kerrane to conclude the 29-year-old is a trap pick whose ceiling is gone. He will not chase the rising ADP and advises drafters to pivot to younger options like Woody Marks or even wait for a possible Singletary trade.

Valenzuela lumped Nick Chubb into her Texans backfield fade, reminding drafters that Chubb is coming off two separate reconstructive knee surgeries after last year’s catastrophic Week 2 injury and then broke his foot in Week 15 of 2024. ESPN charting showed career-worst efficiency (3.3 YPC and only 4.9 % of carries gaining 10+ yards). Given the serious durability questions and the same PFF-29th offensive line Mixon inherits, Valenzuela said she is simply out on investing in Chubb this season.

Jeff Mueller DPT said Nick Chubb is the Texans back he actually wants at cost. Chubb is now a full year removed from his double knee procedure—initial meniscus/MCL repair followed by ACL reconstruction—and six months removed from the foot fracture that ended 2024. Foot fractures typically need 8–12 weeks of bone healing plus conditioning, so Chubb has already cleared the six-month window when efficiency usually normalizes. That places him in the classic "Year-2 ACL" bucket that historically restores 90–95 percent of pre-injury explosiveness. Because Chubb’s ADP is still drifting in the late rounds behind Dameon Pierce and Woody Marks, Mueller is happy to scoop him as cheap insurance against Mixon’s murky ankle status and believes Chubb is the better bet to lead Houston in carries despite the Texans’ lingering offensive-line concerns.

Jim Coventry said Nick Chubb is one of the best late-round shots because Joe Mixon’s efficiency is circling the drain. Mixon posted a 19th-percentile broken-tackle rate and 22nd-percentile yards-after-contact mark in 2024, then produced fewer than 10.7 PPR points in five of his final six games. Mixon also enters camp with lingering ankle and foot issues. Chubb, now 29, is squatting his pre-injury weights and has completed his own speed/agility program after coming back from 2023 knee and foot surgeries. Coventry expects at least a 60-40 carry split in Chubb’s favor and notes Houston’s spread three-receiver sets plus C.J. Stroud’s threat will keep boxes light. Even at 80 percent of his former self, Coventry believes Chubb can be a "force of nature" who vastly outperforms his ADP.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said recent comments from Kevin Stefanski suggest the Browns still view Nick Chubb as a true bell-cow once he is healthy. Chubb is slipping to roughly pick 78 on Underdog because drafters are nervous about his knee rehab and the overall volatility of the Cleveland offense. Pat argued that if Stefanski really hands Chubb the 18-plus touch workload he enjoyed pre-injury, you are getting a rock-solid RB2 floor with weekly RB1 ceilings at a 7th-round price. He conceded there is still risk—both the recovery timeline and questions about Cleveland’s passing efficiency—but concluded the upside-to-cost ratio is firmly in your favor in large-field best-ball tournaments.

Jason Moore said he does NOT expect Nick Chubb to push Joe Mixon for the lead-back job in Houston—Chubb is coming off a late-season broken foot and is now 30—yet Moore warned that the coaching staff could still use the veteran as a designated goal-line hammer. That single-use deployment would eat into Mixon’s touchdown ceiling without giving Chubb enough snaps or targets to be dependable in season-long line-ups. Moore’s bottom line: draft Mixon for volume but understand that Chubb is the type of low-end bench stash who can pop for 6-to-8 rushing TDs strictly on inside-the-five carries.

Billy Jones noted that Nick Chubb’s best-ball ADP has settled around pick 180 after an early-summer spike and views this range as the first ‘true price’ drafters have seen. The initial surge was driven by optimism on his ACL recovery, but Billy’s chart shows managers are no longer paying a premium. At that cost, Chubb slots in as a zero-RB leverage play who could return by November to face an AFC South schedule giving up 4.6 yards per carry. Billy will keep Chubb at 180 in his updated rankings, seeing limited downside and legitimate late-season tournament upside.

Tom Strachan cautioned drafters about chasing Nick Chubb’s 34-spot ADP jump (to 178). He emphasized that Chubb signed a league-minimum deal and is not guaranteed a 53-man spot while starter Joe Mixon (foot) is still expected back for camp. Chubb is coming off career lows across the board and now runs behind what Strachan calls “potentially the worst offensive line he’s ever played behind.” The tout sees more downside than upside and would only take Chubb as a last-round flyer, not at his new mid-round cost.

Jim Coventry’s bold call is Nick Chubb ending the year as RB30 in his first season with Houston. Coventry acknowledged Joe Mixon enters camp as the nominal starter, yet insists coaches will recognize Chubb’s superior talent once they see him fully recovered from the gruesome 2023 knee injury. The 28-year-old has limited career mileage and just signed a deal with meaningful guarantees, signaling a real role. Coventry anticipates a 60-65 % carry share for Chubb, with Mixon mopping up the remainder and most passing-down snaps. That workload, paired with Chubb’s career 5.3 YPC and red-zone efficiency, should easily clear current draft expectations while still reflecting a timeshare-capped ceiling.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound advised fading Chubb’s 180 ADP surge after the veteran signed with Houston. He argued Chubb is strictly a short-yardage grinder whose upside is capped to one-yard plunge TDs because Joe Mixon will dominate red-zone work and all passing downs. Pat pointed out that if Houston gets inside the five, Mixon—not Chubb—still profiles as the preferred option, and any Mixon injury would result in a two-man committee with rookie Woody Marks siphoning passing-game snaps. He compared Chubb’s realistic best-case to 2023 Gus Edwards—an occasional 11-to-18-point spike week but mostly 5-point box scores—and said he would rather draft Rico Dowdle, Jalen Wright, or Braylon Allen in the same range for higher juice and clearer contingent value.

Greg Brainos advised fading Nick Chubb entirely, arguing the veteran "looked terrible" last season, carries heavy career mileage and now profiles as nothing more than depth behind Joe Mixon in Houston. Brainos dismissed the idea that Chubb has much left in the tank, stressing that Mixon—despite a camp maintenance plan—remains the clear No. 1. He added that the Texans have a poor track record evaluating running backs, evidenced by letting Rico Dowdle walk while overpaying Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, so he’s not banking on creative usage suddenly reviving Chubb’s fantasy value. Unless Mixon goes down, Brainos sees zero standalone utility and is at 0 % exposure in best-ball drafts.

Steph Miller cautioned drafters not to chase Nick Chubb’s name value now that he is floating in the 17th–18th-rounds of BBM6. Even if Joe Mixon were to go down, she doubts the 28-year-old coming off multiple knee procedures can handle more than 60 percent of Houston’s carries, and he offers zero third-down equity. Steph acknowledged the viral workout videos but reminded viewers that rehabbing backs almost always look explosive in controlled settings. She is instead clicking Rico Dowdle at pick 177, reasoning that Dowdle is already entrenched as Dallas’ No. 2 and doesn’t need an outlier medical recovery to pay off. In her words, “take the guy with a locked-in role rather than betting on Dalvin-Cook-style dust.” Chubb remains a last-round flyer only when he perfectly correlates; otherwise Steph is out.

Sam Monson urged teams—and by extension fantasy drafters—to ‘kick the tires’ on Nick Chubb during training camp because the upside remains enormous. Before last year’s devastating knee injury, Chubb consistently ranked with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley as a top-three NFL back. Monson conceded Chubb looked sluggish in his brief 2023 return but pointed to recent workout footage showing him clearing hurdles and literally denting a ceiling tile with his head as evidence of regained explosion. Given his age and injury discount, Monson thinks Chubb could be signed (Chicago was floated as a fit) for a modest NFL contract and believes managers can scoop him at a steep ADP discount in best-ball tournaments or stash him on redraft benches. If the burst is truly back, you’re looking at a potential league-winning RB for pennies on the dollar; if not, he’s an easy cut. That asymmetric payoff makes Chubb one of Monson’s favorite speculative picks of the summer.

Eric Luttrell warned drafters not to touch Nick Chubb until the 15th round or later. Coming off a multiligament knee reconstruction with no team yet willing to commit, Chubb’s best-case landing spot still would not lift him past Round 12 in Underdog ADP, according to Eric. Because the market refuses to bake in meaningful upside, you are simply paying for name value right now while absorbing suspension/PUP-list risk and zero receiving floor. His recommendation: let the room chase the nostalgia and wait until the mid-teens—if he is still there and finally signs somewhere, fine, otherwise spend the pick on a healthy back who actually has a roster spot.