Chris Liss argued that Patrick Mahomes will continue to post merely solid, Brady-before-Moss style fantasy numbers until Kansas City uncovers a true game-breaking wideout. Liss pointed to the dramatic swing in Tom Brady’s production—50 TDs the year Randy Moss arrived after hovering around 26 beforehand—as proof that even all-time great quarterbacks need an alpha to unlock ceiling weeks. Mahomes averaged just 26.8 passing TDs over the two seasons since Tyreek Hill left and now relies on an aging Travis Kelce and a committee of unproven receivers. Liss said Mahomes is essentially “game-manager Brady” on a defense-led, run-leaning team unless Rashee Rice returns healthy and either Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown morphs into a Hill-level threat. Until that happens, he sees another 25-to-27-TD season and would not pay current QB6–QB7 season-long cost, reserving Mahomes for late-round best-ball stacks that bet on a Rice/Worthy breakout.

Alan Seslowsky is thrilled whenever someone grabs Patrick Mahomes as the QB6 in Rounds 6–7 because he believes the pick is a trap. Since Tyreek Hill left, Mahomes has produced middling fantasy totals—he has not cracked 25 points per game in either of the last two seasons and finished outside the top-five QBs in most scoring formats. Seslowsky pointed out that Mahomes offers none of the 700-yard rushing upside that props up Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, yet costs only one round less than those dual-threat options and three rounds more than pocket passers with similar weekly output. With elite receivers scarce in that draft window and quarterbacks like Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence available much later, Seslowsky is passing on Mahomes in all season-long builds.

Rich Cooling advised dynasty managers—especially in Superflex—to capitalize on the gap between Patrick Mahomes’ actual worth and public perception. Cooling called the 2024 Chiefs passing corps a top-12 unit featuring Xavier Worthy (elite speed), Rashee Rice (zone-beating monster), Travis Kelce, and Hollywood Brown. That upgrade removes the two-high safety excuse that capped splash plays the past two years. From a pure value standpoint, Cooling places Mahomes at 88 of 100 on his trade chart, equivalent to three first-round picks plus a second. Yet Keep-Trade-Cut suggests a mid-first and mid-second are enough. Cooling noted that even if Mahomes only produces QB10-QB15 numbers for the next decade, the longevity and weekly floor justify paying that premium. He urged managers to ignore one-QB aggregated rankings and treat Mahomes as a unique, near irreplaceable Superflex asset—willing to give two firsts plus a young QB like Bryce Young or JJ McCarthy without hesitation.

Mags said Patrick Mahomes is a screaming buy in dynasty because the market is acting like 2023 is the new normal. Mahomes tossed only 26 touchdowns last season—down from the 50-TD peak we have already seen—and is currently QB6 on both DLF and Keep-Trade-Cut. Mags argued that number ignores major context: the Chiefs now have their best receiver room since 2021. Rashee Rice was the WR2 in points per game during his brief run, Xavier Worthy flashed late in the year, Hollywood Brown showed chemistry after returning from injury, and Travis Kelce is still around. With those weapons plus a motivated team that “is not happy just winning by one score,” Mags expects Kansas City to push the ball more and Mahomes’ TD total to rebound into the mid-30s or higher. Because of that ceiling and the decade-long security he offers in Superflex, Mags would pay at least two first-rounders—and happily smash any deal close to the mid-first + mid-second price KTC suggests.

Davis Mattek said selecting Patrick Mahomes in the 9th round of a 12-team self-contained best ball league is a bargain. Because the league has no massive playoff field to exploit single-game ceilings, Mahomes’ unparalleled weekly consistency becomes a premium. Since 2021 he has topped 17 fantasy points in 71 % of starts and dipped below 12 only twice, thanks to Andy Reid’s top-3 pass-rate-over-expectation offenses. Mattek compared him to cheaper options like Brock Purdy and Jared Goff but noted those passers still carry tail-risk games Mahomes rarely shows. That reliable 20-point floor plus occasional 30-point spikes justifies the pick even without a perfect stack; pairing him with late-eighth-round Isiah Pacheco is simply a bonus.

Brandon Anderson predicted a bounce-back passing year and a renewed MVP push for Patrick Mahomes. He cited Rashee Rice’s expected second-year leap, the additions of first-round burner Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, plus JuJu Smith-Schuster’s return as reasons the receiver room will be far better than last season’s "rebuilding" unit. Anderson acknowledged left-tackle questions but trusts Andy Reid’s scheming and an elite interior offensive line to keep Mahomes upright, making the quarterback an attractive MVP futures ticket and the upgraded weapons a boost for season-long fantasy value across the offense.

Pete Overzet said he is "back to the idea" of Patrick Mahomes ripping off another 50-touchdown season similar to 2018. Overzet’s reasoning is mostly narrative-driven but actionable: the anti-Chiefs fatigue that built up during their recent dynasty run has subsided now that they no longer hold the Lombardi, so Mahomes’ ADP should drift a tad lower than last summer. With the public attention off Kansas City, Overzet expects Mahomes to play freer, and he still trusts Andy Reid’s offense to maximize red-zone chances. He framed the move as paying a late-Round-2/early-Round-3 best-ball price for true QB1 overall upside and even floated grabbing early MVP futures before training-camp buzz re-inflates the market.

Jason Moore said taking Patrick Mahomes in round five forces managers to ride a quarterback who no longer delivers elite fantasy output. Mahomes’ average depth of target has fallen every season—9.1, 8.5, 8.1, 7.1, 7.4, 7.2, 6.5 and 6.4 in 2024—and 19% of last year’s throws came behind the line of scrimmage. His touchdown rate has dipped from a sparkling 6.5% over his first six seasons to a league-average 4.5% for two straight years. Moore blamed Andy Reid’s shift to short-area YAC designs and the Chiefs’ defense jumping to fourth in points allowed, eliminating shoot-outs. With wideouts Rashee Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy thriving on screens and Travis Kelce doing less with each target, Moore does not expect the deep-ball, multi-TD games to return. Mahomes produced just one top-12 weekly finish before Week 9 last season and earned an F in the Footballers’ consistency metric. Moore prefers late-round combos such as Kyler Murray, Bo Nix or Dak Prescott—available several rounds later—and advised passing on Mahomes unless Kansas City’s defense suddenly collapses.

Steve Palazzolo cautioned managers to temper statistical expectations for Patrick Mahomes in 2024. Citing PFF grades, EPA, QBR and other metrics, Palazzolo said Mahomes has ranked only QB5–QB8 over the past two seasons and is intentionally morphing into a more ball-control passer because the Chiefs no longer boast Tyreek Hill-level field-stretchers. He emphasized Kansas City’s offense now leans on protecting the football and sustained drives, a shift that caps raw fantasy output even though Mahomes remains unrivaled in late-game heroics. Palazzolo’s actionable advice: in redraft and DFS, value Mahomes closer to the 5–7 range rather than automatic QB1; consider the UNDER on season-long passing-yard props; but still trust him in clutch-driven markets such as fourth-quarter comeback props or Chiefs futures because his "when you need a drive" excellence is unchanged.

Steve Palazzolo argued that Patrick Mahomes still deserves QB1 consideration despite a statistical dip the last two years. He acknowledged the Chiefs star has graded only as a fringe top-10 passer on a throw-for-throw basis (roughly QB8-QB10) since 2022, yet emphasized Mahomes’ unmatched full body of work, late-game "magic," and ability to adapt to personnel changes – winning a Super Bowl and an MVP after Tyreek Hill left. Palazzolo believes that resilience means Mahomes reliably elevates a middling supporting cast, keeping Kansas City in title contention. For fantasy and futures betting, he recommends trusting Mahomes’ proven combination of weekly floor and nuclear ceiling over the newer flash of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.

Steve Palazzolo argued that Kansas City’s early two-year, $15 million deal for Jalen Moore combined with drafting Josh Simmons at 32 overall finally stabilizes the Chiefs’ only recurring weakness—left-tackle depth. He pointed out that every recent dip in the offense’s efficiency has coincided with backup tackles being forced into action, but Moore provides an above-average stopgap while Simmons offers long-term upside. With sturdier edges, Palazzolo expects Andy Reid to call more long-developing vertical concepts, historically Mahomes’ most efficient throw type. He recommended grabbing Mahomes at +650 to win MVP and taking the over on 30.5 passing TDs before sportsbooks adjust to Kansas City’s improved protection.

Buck pushed back on the idea that Patrick Mahomes is an automatic top-five fantasy quarterback, citing mounting off-field obligations that could dilute his preparation. He pointed to Mahomes’ new production company, nonstop commercial work and a family actively chasing reality-TV fame as distractions that simply did not exist during the QB’s early-career domination. Buck admitted the Chiefs’ offensive infrastructure is still elite but predicted that "mental bandwidth" issues keep Mahomes outside the top-eight fantasy QBs unless rookie left tackle Josh Simmons immediately grades as a top-10 pass-blocker. With Mahomes going several rounds ahead of quarterbacks who project similarly in raw points, Buck advised passing on him in both season-long drafts and best-ball tournaments unless his ADP slides into double-digit rounds.

Davis Mattek labeled Patrick Mahomes the best bet in fantasy to erupt for a 400-point season after back-to-back "down" years of 293 points. He referenced Mike Clay’s conservative 4,300-30-289 projection but argued Mahomes’ ceiling climbs dramatically if rookie LT Josh Simmons merely grades as a top-10 pass-blocker. Mattek’s thesis: no other QB combines Mahomes’ track record, play-calling infrastructure, and upside path, making him undervalued at his current ADP in both season-long and best-ball drafts.

Davis Mattek called grabbing Patrick Mahomes before ADP “terrible” roster construction in 2024 best-ball rooms. Mahomes no longer provides the rushing yardage that props up Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson, and his median projection has slipped because Andy Reid slowed the Chiefs’ pace to 30th in neutral-situation plays last season. Even if Mahomes returns to a 40-TD ceiling, Mattek believes those blow-up games are harder to access unless Kansas City embraces rookie burner Xavier Worthy and speeds up again—an outcome that directly caps Rashee Rice’s volume. With comparable pocket passers like Joe Burrow and Jordan Love going multiple rounds later, Mattek prefers waiting and using the premium pick on scarce wide-receiver upside rather than betting Mahomes beats the Allen/Hurts tier without the rushing safety net.

Andy Holloway slotted Patrick Mahomes closer to QB10 than QB5, even ranking him behind rookie Bo Nix in initial projections. Mahomes finished just QB11 last season and failed to reach 4,000 yards for the first time in his career. Holloway expects only a modest bounce to roughly 4,050 yards and 28–30 TDs, which cannot keep pace with the dual-threat ceilings of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. While Kansas City added field-stretchers Worthy and Hollywood Brown, Holloway doubts the team’s philosophy will suddenly turn pass-happy after last year’s defensive-leaning success. With Mahomes offering only 250 rushing yards and five rushing TD upside, Holloway advised passing on his late-fourth/early-fifth ADP in single-QB leagues and targeting cheaper upside options like Jordan Love or Anthony Richardson instead.

Billy Jones observed that the market correction on Bo Nix has unintentionally created a short-lived buying window on Patrick Mahomes. Earlier in the spring Mahomes was regularly drafted beside—or even behind—the unproven rookie, but with Nix sliding two rounds Mahomes now falls into the mid-third where he rarely went last year. Jones emphasized that Mahomes still led the league in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line (45) even during Kansas City’s so-called down season and now gets Rashee Rice healthy plus Marquise Brown stretching the field. Securing Mahomes at pick 34–36 lets drafters stop at two quarterbacks and frees a late roster slot, a point Jones thinks the field has forgotten while chasing shiny rookies. He is gladly clicking Mahomes any time he’s the fourth quarterback off the board, calling it "elite ceiling without the early-round tax."