Matt Striker labeled Saquon Barkley a potential bust at his RB3 overall ADP despite the Eagles’ elite offensive line. Barkley handled 340+ carries last season—a workload threshold that historically precedes a 20-25% dip in fantasy production the following year, according to the data set Striker referenced from Joe Pizipia’s ‘Fantasy Blackbook’ research. Striker thinks drafters are paying for last season’s ceiling rather than baking in inevitable regression, and he is fading Barkley in the top half of Round 1, preferring wide receivers or lower-mileage backs in that slot.

Ariel Epstein recommended betting under 1,500.5 rushing yards on Saquon Barkley. Barkley erupted for 2,005 yards last season after moving from the league’s worst offensive line to what Epstein called the best, but she expects natural regression and workload management. New offensive coordinator Kevin Batulow—Jalen Hurts’ fifth play-caller in six seasons—wants to lean on the pass early to keep Barkley healthy and avoid the injury-related absences that have plagued him in the past. Because the current line still requires Barkley to be the ninth player in league history to reach 1,500 yards multiple times, Epstein views the under as the smarter season-long wager.

Chris Allen said Saquon Barkley is the safest way to open a 2025 draft from the 1.02 because his ceiling-plus-floor profile is already proven inside the Eagles’ offense. Barkley generated 30 explosive runs during the 2024 regular season and, counting the playoffs, ripped off 13 carries of 34-plus yards, eight of which went for touchdowns. He finished first in expected points added and still ranked fifth in success rate, a metric Allen noted is more predictive of future production than raw EPA. Philadelphia’s line remains a top-10 group (8th in Adjusted Yards Before Contact per Rush, 9th in Run-Block Win Rate), but Barkley’s own speed was responsible for the 4th- and 5th-fastest ball-carrier times last year, evidence the line is not carrying him. With no new target competition, Barkley should at least match last year’s 10.3% target share while again handling bell-cow rushing volume. Allen concluded that the intact offensive infrastructure and Barkley’s dual-threat usage make him an ideal “Hero RB” foundation when drafting from the two-spot.

Coventry called Saquon Barkley a "great bet" at 1.05, arguing that worries about last year’s heavy workload are overblown. He pointed to Philadelphia’s dominant offensive line and an upgraded receiving corps that will keep extra defenders out of the box, giving Barkley plenty of efficient touches. The only concern he acknowledged is sheer volume wear-and-tear, but he still prefers Barkley over most options if managers want a safer first-round profile than Christian McCaffrey.

Buck called Saquon Barkley a "smash" at pick 1.05 and said he would even draft him ahead of CeeDee Lamb, Christian McCaffrey, or Jahmyr Gibbs. He dismissed concerns about last year’s 400-touch workload as survivorship bias, noting that players who handle that volume are elite talents who keep getting fed even if their efficiency slips. Buck added that Barkley could regress to 4.3 yards per carry and still crush because Philadelphia will lean on him as a true bell-cow. In Best Ball Mania, Buck views Barkley as the safest high-ceiling anchor you can grab from any slot after the top four.

Emory Hunt projected Saquon Barkley to blow past the 10.5 rushing-TD prop in his first season with the Eagles. Hunt expects Philadelphia’s elite offensive line and Hurts’ improved passing volume to create lighter boxes, allowing Barkley to approach last year’s 13 rushing scores—and possibly 15—while handling the bulk of non-tush-push carries near the goal line.

Whalen pushed Saquon Barkley to RB3 within the top tier and warned of multiple red flags. Barkley piled up 2,000+ yards and a huge touch count last season, a statistical peak few backs repeat historically. The Eagles accomplished their Super Bowl goal and may manage Barkley’s regular-season workload to keep him fresh, amplifying injury concerns that already follow a runner with that usage. In full-PPR formats Barkley’s ceiling is further capped – he caught only 33 balls on 43 targets versus the 50-plus receptions Whalen expects from Bijan and Gibbs. He still endorses Barkley as an elite back but views him as the most fragile of the big three.

Brandon Kravitz admitted workload concerns after Saquon Barkley’s 2,000-plus scrimmage yards but kept him as his overall RB1. He cited historical data that backs a 500-yard dip the year after such a season, yet argued Barkley is in a far better ecosystem than past fall-off examples like Jamal Lewis or Chris Johnson. Barkley remains in his physical prime, now runs behind what Kravitz calls the league’s best offensive line, and operates inside a balanced, high-scoring offense that maximizes red-zone chances. Those situational advantages outweigh regression risk, so Kravitz still targets Barkley at the top of season-long drafts.

Mike Wright warned drafters that Barkley’s massive 2024 workload is the textbook red-flag for a downturn. Wright dug up a sample of every back since 2020 who logged at least 330 touches (ten players total). All ten saw their volume fall by 45 or more touches the following year and only two managed to play a full 17-game slate. Barkley, now 28-and-a-half years old, smashed that threshold with 378 regular-season touches and another 104 in the playoffs. Although Philadelphia’s league-best offensive line and run-first identity make it easy to dream on a repeat, Wright thinks the historical attrition curve plus Barkley’s age makes him too risky at 1.01. He still ranks Saquon ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs but prefers Bijan Robinson as the safer top overall pick in both season-long drafts and best-ball tournaments where missing games is a killer.

Andy Holloway advised passing on Saquon Barkley at the 1.03 in favor of Bijan Robinson, citing extreme workload and age-related injury risk. Barkley logged 378 regular-season carries and another 104 in the playoffs—a massive 482-touch campaign that few 28-year-old backs survive unscathed the following year. Holloway noted research showing backs who exceed 370 touches see both efficiency and games-played dip the next season. While admitting the volume is "what you dream of" if Barkley holds up, Holloway views the probability of breakdown too high for an early-first-round pick. He prefers Robinson’s fresher legs, lighter 272-touch rookie total, and ascendant usage profile in Arthur Smith’s run-centric Atlanta attack.

Nick Holtz said drafters should avoid Saquon Barkley at his current early-first-round ADP in 2025 drafts. Barkley logged almost 400 touches during the Eagles’ Super Bowl season, a threshold that has historically preceded injury or sharp production decline; Holtz referenced post-peak examples like Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson and Christian McCaffrey. He added the Madden-cover "curse" to the risk profile and stated he would rank Barkley closer to RB4-5, preferring ascending or sturdier options such as Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. Because virtually everything broke perfectly for Barkley in 2024, Holtz doubts a repeat and sees no justification for spending a top-half first-round pick on him in season-long leagues.

JSU said Saquon Barkley is an "auto-click" whenever he slips to the 1.06 in DraftKings best-ball rooms because the field is overthinking his perceived touchdown regression. He pointed out that Barkley saw only 41 % of his team’s carries inside the five last season, while Derrick Henry commanded 90 % for Tennessee. JSU argued that if Barkley ever approached a Henry-like goal-line share he could have pushed 25 rushing TDs. Drafters are fading him after last year’s 400-touch workload and because Jalen Hurts may vulture some sneaks, but JSU believes an uptick in Barkley’s goal-line work (plus his trademark long runs) still gives him league-winning upside at a mid-first-round price.

Kelley Bydlon slotted Saquon Barkley at No. 2 overall in full-PPR drafts, arguing that the former Giant instantly became a "touchdown machine" after joining the Eagles and could unlock even more value if Philadelphia finally features him in the passing game. Bydlon noted Barkley’s red-zone dominance last season behind the league’s most creative goal-line package and expects an uptick from last year’s modest 46 targets because Jalen Hurts showed a willingness to dump the ball off to D’Andre Swift down the stretch. Behind one of football’s premier offensive lines and attached to a top-five scoring offense, Bydlon believes Barkley can realistically threaten 15+ TDs and 60 catches, justifying his ranking ahead of all but Ja’Marr Chase in 2025 drafts.

Nick Whalen advised passing on Saquon Barkley as the +650 Offensive Player of the Year favorite, arguing it is rarely wise to chase running backs coming off what feels like a ceiling season. He cited the near-absence of players who follow a 2,000-yard (or near 2,000-yard) campaign with another award-worthy year, and prefers to invest in talents whose workload and production are still accelerating. With other long-shots such as Bijan Robinson offering a higher ceiling at better prices, Whalen views Barkley as an overvalued option in both fantasy and the awards market.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Saquon Barkley is an auto-click any time he slides into the mid-50s, even when you already have Jalen Hurts on the roster. He dismissed the usual "Hurts steals all the goal-line work" narrative, noting that the Eagles still produced 23 rushing scores from running backs last season and will now replace D’Andre Swift’s touches with a far better talent. Pat expects the combo to rack up 20-plus total touchdowns, with Barkley adding a handful of receiving spikes that can overlap with Hurts’ passing production. He also pushed back on the idea that a slightly pass-heavier 2024 script hurts Barkley, arguing Philadelphia will still salt away plenty of second-half leads behind a top-five offensive line. The only real roadblock he sees is health—"same as every Round-1 back"—making Barkley a ceiling bet worth smashing in Best Ball Mania when he drifts past pick 50.

Ian Hartitz defended ranking Saquon Barkley as his RB1 and dismissed the popular "370/400-touch curse." Hartitz ran the numbers back to 2010 and found that 400-plus-touch backs still had a median of 15 games played the next season (12.7 on average) once you remove misleading data points like LeVeon Bell’s holdout or Zeke’s suspension. Barkley’s 2024 workload (370 regular-season touches, 400-plus including playoffs) therefore doesn’t automatically make him an injury time bomb. Ian argued that if analysts truly believed the volume doomed Saquon, they should push him outside their top 10 altogether—yet most keep him top-three because the talent, three-down role and dual-threat usage remain elite in Philadelphia’s high-scoring offense.

Evan Silva warned drafters to be underweight on Saquon Barkley despite his first-round ADP. Barkley piled up 482 touches last season (playoffs included) and, at age 29, Silva thought he looked ‘out of gas’ during the Super Bowl. Silva noted Barkley is five years older than rising stars Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson and compared his workload to DeMarco Murray’s 2014 season—after which Murray immediately fell off. The Eagles added rookies Isaac Guerendo and Jordan James, giving Philadelphia options to lighten Barkley’s load. Given age, mileage and historical comps, Silva labeled Barkley the riskiest running back in the elite tier and a player he is actively fading in best ball and redraft.

Mathology said Barkley is his clear 1.04 because the former Giant now runs behind Philadelphia’s top-five offensive line. He thinks the Eagles’ tougher schedule will lead to more red-zone snaps instead of long, grind-it-out drives, giving Barkley frequent goal-line looks. Barkley was tackled at the 1-yard line several times last season, and Mathology expects that variance to swing the other way, projecting a healthy touchdown bump to go with Barkley’s every-down role. The combination of a run-centric attack, interior line dominance and baked-in receiving volume makes Barkley a priority first-round pick in Best Ball Mania drafts.

Nez said he still drafts Saquon Barkley ahead of Bijan Robinson even though he normally loves Bijan. His reasoning: • Half-PPR on Underdog makes Barkley’s established pass-catching role more valuable than Bijan’s uncertain target share. • We just watched Barkley handle 420+ touches and still rip chunk plays, something Bijan did not show as a rookie. • Barkley’s big-play profile (home-run speed and multiple 60-yard scores last season) gives him the higher ceiling that wins BBM playoffs, whereas Bijan’s floor comes from volume but lacks explosive upside. • Public sentiment and early-July “best-ball bro” hype around Atlanta’s projected fast tempo have artificially flipped the ADPs, but Nez expects mainstream drafters to push Barkley back ahead once training camps open. Bottom line: at the 1.02–1.04 turn Nez is taking Barkley every time and happily passing on Robinson.

James Koh invoked the “curse of 370” while fading Saquon Barkley, pointing out that Barkley piled up 482 touches last season—65 more than Christian McCaffrey’s 417 before CMC’s own injury-filled follow-up year. Koh expects the workload hangover to sap Barkley’s efficiency and, more importantly, shorten his season; he’d be "shocked" if Barkley clears 12 games in 2025. For anyone eyeing Barkley at 1.01, Koh’s advice is simple: don’t be that manager.

Nick Whalen cautioned against spending a top-three pick on Saquon Barkley after last year’s 378-touch, 2,000-yard explosion. Barkley logged 345 carries and played over 1,000 snaps, numbers Whalen thinks Philadelphia will scale back now that they’ve ‘climbed the mountain.’ Despite all that volume, Barkley posted a career-low 33 receptions and relied on breakaways: eight of 15 TDs came from 20+ yards, four from 65+ yards. Whalen doubts year-over-year repetition of 5.8 YPC big-play efficiency, particularly with the tush-push still funneling goal-line scores to Jalen Hurts (29 rushing TDs last two seasons). Historically, backs coming off all-time seasons—Peterson, Lewis, Henry, Tomlinson—have seen sharp production drop-offs and injury risk the following year. Whalen thinks the precedent, combined with reduced passing-game usage and goal-line competition, makes Barkley unlikely to return elite value at his lofty cost.

Liz Loza warned that Saquon Barkley is a fade at his current top-three ADP, citing the wear-and-tear of last season’s 482 total touches. She reviewed every NFL back in the last decade who handled at least 300 carries and 20 receptions (320 touches) and found that, aside from LeSean McCoy, every one of them suffered year-over-year declines in yards per carry, yards per touch, and fantasy points per game. Several—like Adrian Peterson and Derrick Henry—were even forced to shut their seasons down early with injuries. Given that precedent, Loza prefers taking Ashton Jeanty in the mid-first and letting someone else absorb Barkley’s looming efficiency and injury risk.

Chris Liss argued against taking Saquon Barkley as the first running back off the board. Barkley is now 28 with nearly 1,500 career touches, and Liss is spooked by the 480-touch workload he handled last year. Instead, he prefers Bijan Robinson or even Jameer Gibbs at 1.01, pointing out that both are entering their physical primes without mileage concerns. Liss framed the Barkley decision as a classic "why take the chance?" scenario— the talent and situation are great, but the age/usage risk is unnecessary when fresher elite options exist.

Davis Mattek said Saquon Barkley is a screaming positive-regression bet at the goal line after an almost comical run of bad luck last season. Barkley was tackled at the one-yard line 11 times while Jalen Hurts cleaned up with tush-push touchdowns, a split Mattek called "unrepeatable." If Barkley merely converts five of those stalls in 2024, he would jump from last year’s middling RB2 finish to a clear RB1 and could realistically flirt with 15 total scores. Mattek argued that Philadelphia’s red-zone run rate (fourth-highest) and league-best offensive line make those extra touchdowns more probable than not, turning Barkley into a high-floor, high-ceiling pick in both best-ball and season-long formats at his current late-second/early-third ADP.

Sam Monson praised Saquon Barkley’s unmatched raw athletic gifts—backwards hurdles, elite explosiveness—but cautioned that in a merely average blocking environment his tendency to bounce runs and hunt home-runs hurts efficiency. Monson believes backs like Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey show better down-to-down vision and will gladly accept the simple 7-yard gain. Fantasy takeaway: Barkley’s floor is lower than perceived if the Eagles suffer line attrition or if you project him into a neutral scheme; he shapes up as a volatile RB1/2 rather than a sure thing.

Palazzolo argued that Saquon Barkley is his top choice "if-and-only-if" the offense supplies a good-to-great offensive line plus a running quarterback. He cited Barkley accounting for 20 percent of the entire NFL’s 60-yard runs last season and asserted that the Eagles’ league-best line and Jalen Hurts’ read-option gravity should replicate that home-run environment in 2024. Conversely, he admitted he would prefer Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey behind an average front because Barkley’s boom-or-bounce running style stalls when lanes tighten. Fantasy takeaway: in drafts you can confidently chase Barkley’s ceiling in Philadelphia but downgrade him sharply if preseason injuries ravage that line.

JSU lumped Saquon Barkley into the same elite tier as Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, insisting the new Eagles bell-cow is one of only a handful of players with a true 50-point ceiling. Barkley can "get 30 consistently" and still spike for 42-plus, a weekly advantage that can bury an opponent at the running-back slot by 20 fantasy points. That singular separation is why JSU is comfortable spending a top-three pick on Barkley in Best Ball drafts despite the wide-receiver-heavy first round.

Kyle Long warned fantasy managers not to over-project Saquon Barkley’s touchdown totals in Philadelphia because the Eagles default to the "tush push" QB sneak whenever they reach the 1-yard line. Barkley posted 13 rushing scores last season—just three fewer than Derrick Henry’s 16—despite nearly matching Henry in rushing yards (only a two-yard difference). Long argued Barkley "should have 50 touchdowns a year" based on talent and workload, but the cheat-code sneak with Jalen Hurts siphons most low-red-zone carries. Unless the league bans the play at upcoming owners meetings, Barkley’s goal-line TD ceiling remains capped, lowering his value in anytime-TD props and limiting his upside as an early-round season-long pick.

Jason Moore labeled Saquon Barkley a textbook dynasty sell despite his shiny RB5 startup ADP. Barkley is 28.2 years old, the exact age where Moore’s in-house study found running backs suffer a 30 percent per-game drop. Barkley logged 378 touches last season—including a playoff run to the Super Bowl—and Moore pointed out that since 2020 every back who eclipsed 330 touches saw at least 45 fewer the next year, with only two playing a full 17. Barkley’s value still commands a "young stud and a 1st" today, but Moore warned that haul disappears once the usage inevitably dips or injuries mount. He urged managers to get out a year early—while Barkley is still attached to Philly’s top-five offense—rather than ride him into a value black hole like Derrick Henry owners experienced.

Andy Holloway urged fantasy managers to temper expectations for Saquon Barkley after last year’s monster campaign. Barkley handled 482 total touches—378 in the regular season and another 104 in the playoffs, the fifth-most postseason touches ever. Holloway dug up a telling trend: since 2020, 10 running backs have logged 330-plus touches and every single one saw at least 45 fewer touches the next year, with only two managing a full 17-game slate. Barkley’s outlier explosiveness is equally fragile—he ripped off seven runs of 40 yards and four of 60 yards, more 40-yarders than Todd Gurley collected in his entire career and as many 60-yarders as Christian McCaffrey has ever posted. Add in the fact that Barkley turns 29, and no back that old has finished inside the top-5 over the past decade, and Holloway believes 2024 was the ‘magical season,’ not the norm. He still ranks Barkley as a top-5 redraft pick but calls him a dynasty ‘cash-out’ because managers can likely get a massive haul from rivals assuming an automatic repeat.

Pat Kerrane warned dynasty managers that Saquon Barkley is sitting at what may prove to be his absolute value apex. Barkley saw just 43 targets in 2024—his lowest mark outside of the two-game 2020 season—and turned them into a modest 33-278-2 receiving line. Kerrane contrasted that with Barkley’s 121-target rookie year that made him a 1.01 startup pick, arguing the current Eagles offense is simply not inclined to pepper its back with dump-offs. Last season’s 13 rushing TDs were driven by breakaway runs and the tush-push package; if that push gets outlawed or Barkley loses a half-step, Kerrane fears you are left holding a declining two-down back with minimal PPR insulation. He compared Barkley to Derrick Henry–style bets that can unravel quickly, while pointing out Christian McCaffrey will still command receptions even after any athletic downturn. Because Barkley “will never be valued higher than today,” Kerrane advised shopping him now for younger, insulated assets before the production cliff arrives.

Davis Mattek ranked Saquon Barkley a full round higher than his co-hosts in 2025 startup drafts, calling Philadelphia “the most nutted spot imaginable” for Barkley’s skill set. Mattek expects the Eagles’ elite offensive line, run-first identity, and top-10 defense to keep them in positive game scripts, unlocking the long runs and heavy inside-the-five usage that drive Barkley’s fantasy ceiling. He noted that Barkley is still only 28 (turns 29 in February) and believes recent production from Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey shows that age-28 backs can still deliver RB1 seasons. With the NFL rediscovering the value of bell-cows and James Conner entering his age-30 season, Mattek sees Barkley as a high-floor, difference-making points add over the next two years and is actively trading future upside wideouts for him in contenders’ builds.

Jason Moore locked Saquon Barkley in as his preseason RB1, calling the move from New York to Philadelphia “a Cinderella dream.” Barkley’s 345 carries, 13 rushing TDs and league‑leading 66 % of rushing yards before contact highlighted how dominant the Eagles’ elite offensive line was for him last year. Moore conceded the only blemish is a shallow passing‑game role (just 33 catches), which would hurt if TD variance swings the wrong way. However, he argued the looming NFL vote to ban the ‘tush‑push’ could add 4‑6 goal‑line carries that previously went to Jalen Hurts, giving Barkley a realistic path back to 15‑plus touchdowns. With a high‑win offense, top‑five yards‑before‑contact rate and possible scoring bump, Moore views Barkley as the safest first‑round pick in season‑long drafts and an early cornerstone in Best‑Ball builds.