Russell sprinkled a half-unit on Sterling Shepard to score at +500 or better. Shepard logged 64% of Week 1 snaps and drew six Mayfield targets while defenses devoted A.J. Terrell to Mike Evans and tested rookie Emeka Egbuka. Russell expects a similar coverage plan with Derek Stingley Jr. traveling on Evans and Houston’s corners keyed on Egbuka, leaving Shepard to slip through in condensed formations. With Tampa likely using bunch and pick routes near the goal line, Russell sees enough red-zone usage to justify + odds that imply barely a 16% chance of hitting pay dirt.