Ian Hartitz called T.J. Hockenson "one of the most mispriced guys out there." He said drafters are anchoring to an eight-game 2023 stretch that occurred while Justin Jefferson was sidelined. In seven games with Jefferson, Hockenson averaged just 12.8 PPR points versus 16.4 without him and finished last season as TE17 in per-game scoring. With Jefferson healthy and Jordan Addison entrenched, Hartitz doesn’t see a path for Hockenson to pay off an early-seventh-round ADP. He’d rather spend slightly earlier for Travis Kelce’s touchdown upside or wait several rounds for cheaper options.

Ben Gretch said T.J. Hockenson is mis-priced in FFPC best ball because Jordan Addison is expected to receive a mandatory three-game suspension after his DUI plea. With Minnesota’s passing pie already split almost exclusively between Justin Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson, removing Addison for Weeks 1-3 creates what Gretch called “a real bump” in Hockenson’s target share and touchdown equity. In a total-points format those front-loaded spike weeks materially improve your advance rate, yet ADP still treats him the same as in season-long contests. Gretch prefers Hockenson at TE5 around pick 5.09 over similarly priced George Kittle or Sam LaPorta, arguing the former lacks guaranteed volume and the latter already bakes in ceiling outcomes.

Andrew Cooper called T.J. Hockenson a trap at his current cost because Minnesota might not funnel him enough looks to justify a top-five tight-end draft slot. Cooper framed it as a simple litmus test: "Who gets more targets, Hockenson or Jordan Addison when it matters in the fantasy playoffs?" If Addison—who already handled a 17% rookie-year share despite mid-season injuries—earns more volume, Hockenson cannot hit ceiling outcomes. Cooper added that no elite fantasy tight end has thrived while finishing third in his own offense’s target pecking order, and Hockenson now competes with Justin Jefferson’s 30% share and Addison’s growth curve. He prefers fading Hockenson at ADP and loading up on wideouts instead.

James Koh labeled T.J. Hockenson a stock-up smash because target volume and down-field role point to a potential top-three season. With Jordan Addison staring at a multi-game suspension and Hockenson another offseason removed from his 2023 knee blow-out, Minnesota should funnel looks his way. Over the final five games last year he averaged 6.1 targets (a 105-target pace; only four TEs cracked 100). Even hurt, he logged 8.71 air yards per target—second-best among TEs with 50+ targets—making him a rare tight end who earns valuable down-field chances. The rest of the receiver room is thin, so Koh expects Hockenson to sit near the top of every meaningful usage metric again.

After months of fading him, Ian Hartitz conceded that T.J. Hockenson deserves a bump into the low-end TE1 tier if Jordan Addison draws the expected one-to-three-game suspension. Hartitz noted Addison vacated 22 percent of team targets in the eight healthy games he shared with Justin Jefferson last season; without that competition early, Hockenson could push for a 25-30 percent share in Weeks 1-3. Hartitz cautioned that Hockenson averaged only 12.8 PPR points with Jefferson active in 2024 versus 16.3 when Jefferson sat, but he still projects the tight end to see seven to nine high-percentage targets per week during the suspension window. Because those games fall before bye weeks hit, managers can stream a replacement later without roster crunch. Hartitz still expects Addison to reclaim the No. 2 role upon return, so the play is drafting Hockenson for a fast start and then deciding whether to trade him or ride out a likely TE6-to-TE8 rest-of-season finish.

Hribar warned that Minnesota’s commitment to 12-personnel and Josh Oliver’s blocking chops could cap T.J. Hockenson’s snaps on passing downs. The Vikings have run the ball on just 29.7% and 22% of Hockenson’s snaps the past two seasons, but Hribar expects a philosophical shift toward the ground game in 2025. With only four NFL tight ends topping an 80% route participation last year—and none above 90%—Hockenson’s 74.8% rate leaves little margin for further reductions. Hribar cautioned drafters that volume erosion, not talent, could keep Hockenson from paying off his TE5 price tag.

Matthew Freedman recommended fading T.J. Hockenson at TE5 (early Round 6). His projection gives Hockenson just 99 targets, 686 yards and 2.6 touchdowns – numbers that not only trail David Njoku by 45 fantasy points but also suggest a capped ceiling inside Minnesota’s evolving offense. Freedman sees no path for Hockenson to match Njoku’s projected workload and believes paying a two-round premium for the Viking tight end is a mistake when Njoku’s target upside is materially higher.

Harris advised letting someone else chase T.J. Hockenson at an 84th-overall ADP. Returning mid-2024 from ACL surgery, Hockenson mustered 41-455-0 in 10 games and showed obvious rust. He now faces an unproven rookie QB (J.J. McCarthy) and multiple offensive question marks. While memories of his NFC-leading PPR points per game in 2023 explain the TE5 price tag, Harris believes the range of outcomes is wide and downside outweighs upside given healthier, more predictable options in the same draft pocket.

Best Ball Guy said T.J. Hockenson is a smash Eliminator pick right now. With Jordan Addison expected to miss the opening few weeks, the veteran tight end should vacuum up underneath targets for whichever rookie quarterback the Vikings roll out (he name-dropped J.J. McCarthy as the likely starter). He framed the logic in classic rookie-QB fashion: first-year passers lean on their tight ends, and Hockenson already owned a 22% target share before last season’s knee injury. Early production matters most in Underdog’s Eliminator format because weekly scoring thresholds are high, so locking in Hockenson’s bankable volume gives the roster a fast start while the field is still waiting on suspended or developmental wideouts to ramp up.

Mike Wright pushed back on T.J. Hockenson’s current fifth-round price tag, arguing the veteran tight end is more floor than ceiling. Hockenson has finished TE4, TE2, and TE4 the last three seasons, but Wright contends that even a TE4 finish is not truly difference-making when you forego a starting running back or wide receiver in that draft slot. He prefers paying up for Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, or George Kittle—or waiting an extra round or two for David Njoku or Sam LaPorta—because Hockenson does not separate from the pack in weekly scoring. Andy Holloway countered that he projects 115 targets (down from 127 and 129 the past two years) and will be a security blanket for rookie J.J. McCarthy, yet even he admitted he only grabbed Hockenson in Round 7 of their mock when the value fell. Wright’s bottom line: unless Hockenson slips at least a round, pass and chase higher upside elsewhere.

Peter Overzet argued T.J. Hockenson is a sneaky Eliminator pick at his current late-6th price because Jordan Addison may miss the first three games rehabbing an offseason ankle scope. In that span last year Hockenson averaged 10.4 targets and 19.7 fantasy points, showing the offense naturally funnels through him when a receiver sits. Overzet acknowledged the tight end’s ceiling is capped versus Travis Kelce or Brock Bowers, yet pointed out Hock still finished third among TEs in receptions despite Minnesota’s QB carousel. If rookie signal-caller J.J. McCarthy is competent, the unit could "hum," giving Hockenson a stable weekly floor with spike-week upside once injuries hit Justin Jefferson or Addison. Overzet thinks paying the TE4 premium is justified in a format where you can survive on 8-12 points most weeks but win pods when a 25-pointer pops.

Best Ball Guy endorsed grabbing two top-six tight ends early—he paired T.J. Hockenson with another premium option—to exploit a meta in which most drafters punt the position. He argued that locking in 25–30% combined target share and elite red-zone usage from the jump lets you stop at two TEs, freeing late-round ammo for upside swings elsewhere. With best-ball rooms increasingly symmetrical—balanced builds, three-QB churn, few structural gambles—he believes a double-elite TE start is one of the cleanest ways to differentiate playoff lineups without sacrificing weekly floor. In his words, “if the masses are fine rolling out Hunter Henry and Cade Otton, I want to be the guy smashing them with Hock and Laporta.”

Colm Kelly argued that T.J. Hockenson is being drafted a full round too late relative to his projection in FFPC Best Ball. Kelly said he views Hockenson and George Kittle as virtual peers, noting that the gap between Travis Kelce (TE1 by ADP) and Hockenson (TE4/TE5) is larger than the gap between Hockenson and Kittle in actual weekly scoring. His case hinges on three points: 1) Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets per game with Minnesota before tearing his ACL and should again push 125-plus targets once cleared. 2) The Vikings project to be top-10 in pass rate over expectation after adding rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, further insulating that volume. 3) In FFPC’s 1.5 PPR for tight ends, every 80-catch season from a TE equates to WR1 production, yet Hockenson routinely slips to the early fourth while Kelce still costs a late-second pick. Kelly concluded that scooping Hockenson a round after LaPorta/Kittle is a simple way to gain closing-line value without sacrificing ceiling at a fragile position.

Harris advised passing on T.J. Hockenson as TE5 (Pick 84). Post-ACL rust was evident: 41-455-0 in 10 games and only one 100-yard outing. Now he’s paired with rookie QB J.J. McCarthy plus lingering durability concerns. While memories of his 2023 NFC-leading PPR pace provide allure, Harris would rather draft more certain assets in that range and let someone else gamble on a bounce-back.

JSU said TJ Hockenson will soak up volume while the Vikings transition from Sam Darnold’s deep-shot mentality to JJ McCarthy’s intermediate game. He reminded listeners that Darnold ranked third league-wide in QBR on 20-plus-yard throws last season, a profile that does little for a tight end working the middle. By contrast, McCarthy lived on 5-to-15-yard timing routes at Michigan, so Kevin O’Connell is likely to script a quick-hitting passing attack early in the year to keep the rookie comfortable. JSU projected a 25-30 percent target share for Hockenson in September and October, calling that "a free eight-to-ten catches a week" in full-PPR best-ball scoring. He added that McCarthy’s sneaky rushing ability (200-300 yards and a handful of touchdowns) will extend drives and create extra red-zone snaps. Bottom line: whenever Hockenson slips outside the top six tight ends on DraftKings Best Ball, JSU is scooping him as an every-week ceiling play.

Mike Wright argued that dynasty gamers should move T.J. Hockenson for higher-ceiling rookies like Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland while the veteran still retains name value. Wright called Hockenson a "usable guy" but noted his career ceiling is only 960 yards and six touchdowns—numbers that required 129 targets in 2023 and still left him at 11.5 points per game. He reminded listeners that the former first-rounder has never posted double-digit scores and is now 28 coming off a major knee injury. By contrast, rookie prospects offer the spike-week profile he wants from the position; if they hit, they can give Sam LaPorta-style top-end outcomes that actually swing weekly matchups. Wright added that even last season Hockenson produced two duds in his first four games back and then "the wheels completely fell off," underscoring limited upside. With dynasty leagues rewarding long-term ceiling more than floor, Wright urged managers to convert the reliable but capped asset into younger lottery tickets before another middling year erodes his market.

Andy Holloway said dynasty managers should hang on to T.J. Hockenson rather than roll the dice on rookie names like Colston Loveland or Tyler Warren. Holloway pointed to three years of contractual security and the third-most guaranteed money remaining among all NFL tight ends as proof Minnesota is married to him at least through 2026. Even in a "down" 2023 he was the TE4 in only 15 games and averaged 11-plus PPR points, a mark most tight ends never touch. Holloway emphasized the positional scarcity: outside Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and an aging George Kittle, there simply are not many bankable weekly starters. Historical hit rates back him up—most seasons add zero difference-making rookies at the position. With a healthy return from knee surgery and first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy expected to keep the offense viable, Holloway projects another 115-target, 80-catch pace that locks in a mid-tier TE1 floor for at least two more seasons, something the rookies are statistical long-shots to match.

Overzet said he takes T.J. Hockenson every time he’s available in this mid-round pocket because the move instantly completes a premium double-stack with Justin Jefferson while solving the thin tight-end position. Minnesota finished top-10 in yards per play last season, and Overzet expects rookie passer J.J. McCarthy to keep the offense humming. Grabbing Hockenson at ADP protects Jefferson drafters from getting shut out of the stack later and bakes in correlated ceiling for the playoff weeks.

Eric Luttrell pointed out that elite tight ends are being pushed far down the board and highlighted T.J. Hockenson as the prime example. He landed Hawkinson at pick 106 in a Best Ball Mania draft and noted that "no one wants them." With drafters ignoring the onesie position, Hawkinson, Mark Andrews, Jake Ferguson, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goddard and others are all coming in multiple rounds past last year’s prices. Eric advised scooping Hawkinson whenever he slips this far, arguing the market overreacts to his ACL rehab and that any positive camp news will erase the discount, giving early drafters huge closing-line value.