Pat Kerrane said Terry McLaurin is now a value at the 3-4 turn after sliding from the late-third because of his mini-holdout. Kerrane is pairing McLaurin with rookie QB Jaden Daniels in best-ball drafts, reasoning that Washington has no other true alpha—Debo Samuel would be "half a running back" if he even arrives—so McLaurin’s role is secure once the contract standoff ends. He pointed to McLaurin’s 26 % first-read target share, 13.5-yard average depth of target and 1.97 yards per route run in 2023 as evidence the veteran’s underlying efficiency held up even if last year’s 13 regular-season touchdowns (16 including playoffs) probably regress. Because the Commanders are built to win now and cannot install a down-field passing game without him, Kerrane expects a deal before Week 1 and is happy scooping McLaurin whenever he falls into the mid-fourth round.

Pat Kerrane said Terry McLaurin finally costs what he should have all summer and is now a clean click in the mid-fourth round, especially when you want to stack him with rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels who usually goes a few picks later. Kerrane noted McLaurin’s 26 percent first-read target share and 13.5-yard aDOT from 2023 show he already commands both volume and down-field work. The current slide is strictly contract-related, but Kerrane doubts it drags into the regular season because Washington simply has no true field-stretching No. 1 without him. Even if the 13 regular-season touchdowns regress, McLaurin’s 1.97 yards per route run and the likelihood of a pass-heavy West-Coast scheme under Kliff Kingsbury keep a WR2 outcome firmly in play at a WR20-ish price. He is scooping shares whenever the Commanders’ wideout slips past pick 40 to juice his Daniels exposure in Best Ball tournaments.

Ian Hartitz labeled Terry McLaurin a ‘pause’ candidate, pointing out that the Commanders’ WR is simultaneously nursing an ankle issue and staging a soft-hold-in while angling for a new deal. McLaurin has yet to practice, and Hartitz warned the situation “has the potential to get ugly” if negotiations stall. With no timetable for a return and a rookie quarterback learning the offense, Hartitz prefers to wait for a discount rather than pay McLaurin’s current WR2 price tag in Season-Long and Best Ball drafts.

Jonathan Fuller warned that Terry McLaurin’s WR6 season is unlikely to repeat. After never topping five touchdowns from 2020-23, McLaurin spiked to 13 scores in 2024, a classic red-zone outlier. Washington added Deebo Samuel via trade, drafted Jaylin Lane, retained Zach Ertz, and could see Luke McCaffrey expand his role, all of which siphon targets from McLaurin. Fantasy Life projects 1,044 yards and 7.9 TDs—solid but far below last year’s output. Fuller still values him as a starter but views the 2024 stat line as a ceiling, not a new norm.

Pat Kerrane said he is not panicking over Terry McLaurin’s looming hold-out even though the veteran wideout is "very pissed off" about entering camp without an extension. Kerrane argued Washington has no succession plan—no rookie replacement and a win-now roster built around Jaden Daniels—so the front office ultimately has to pay McLaurin. Because the Commanders can offer more guaranteed money now than McLaurin would ever see on the open market as a 31-year-old free agent, Kerrane expects a deal to get done, even if it drags well into August. In the meantime, he sees ADP downside capped by the natural Daniels-McLaurin stack at the 3/4 turn. Should the stalemate push McLaurin into the late fourth or fifth round, Kerrane plans to scoop the discount, noting that he already prefers McLaurin over DK Metcalf and Calvin Ridley straight up. His bottom line: treat any summer slide as an auto-buy in Best Ball drafts rather than a red flag.

Ian Hartitz pushed back on McLaurin’s rising draft price, keeping him at WR18 and labeling him one of the position’s riskier Round-3 picks. Hartitz reminded listeners that McLaurin soaked up only 117 targets in 17 games last season—far below the 150-plus he expected given Washington’s paper-thin receiver room. McLaurin saved his fantasy year with an outlier touchdown rate, something Hartitz views as unlikely to repeat for a 30-year-old wideout whose efficiency has been steadier than explosive throughout his career. With the Commanders eyeing short contracts because of McLaurin’s age, and potential newcomers like Debo Samuel or Luke McCaffrey siphoning underneath looks, Hartitz fears McLaurin will again sit 20-30 targets behind peers such as Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Without that high-end volume, Hartitz believes regression could pull McLaurin down to a mid-WR3 finish, making him a fade at current ADP.

Jake Ciely ranked Terry McLaurin as his WR15—three spots ahead of current ADP—and explained why he remains bullish. Ciely projects a modest bump of roughly 7-10 additional targets over last year’s 117, but believes the real upside comes from improved per-catch production. Washington’s offseason additions should finally give McLaurin breathing room: Debo Samuel (even if he’s merely a big-slot yak guy), rookie Luke McCaffrey soaking up underneath routes, and Zach Ertz returning as a reliable short-area option. Those pieces, plus Jayden Daniels’ scrambling ability that forces second-reaction defenses, should leave McLaurin in single coverage more often and open the door for deeper shots and higher-value touchdowns. Ciely sees a path to a more efficient 2025 stat line—think 1,150-plus yards and 7-9 scores—making McLaurin a rock-solid back-end WR2 inside his large Tier 3 that stretches from Tee Higgins to Courtland Sutton.

Jason Moore pegged Terry McLaurin as one of the easiest negative-regression calls in 2024. McLaurin is only the 10th wideout since 2000 to reach 13 receiving touchdowns on fewer than 125 targets, and Moore said historical comps show nine of those players lost touchdowns the next season—often a "catastrophic" drop. With Washington still leaning run-heavy and adding Deebo Samuel to siphon targets, Moore doubts the volume spike required to repeat double-digit scores materializes. He added that McLaurin’s TDs came in low-yardage games, masking his week-to-week volatility; without more looks, fantasy managers are banking on an unsustainable red-zone outlier.

Ben Gretch called Terry McLaurin a classic fade at Round-4 pricing, noting that last year’s WR16 finish required a career-high 13 touchdowns (second-most in the NFL) on just 1,098 yards and 1.98 yards per route run. McLaurin’s down-field role produces a high average depth of target, limiting the quick-hit RPO looks that dominate Jayden Daniels’ scheme. Washington imported Debo Samuel for underneath work and drafted Jalen Lane as a ball-in-hand option, meaning McLaurin is unlikely to see the short-area volume bump many drafters assume comes with being “the No. 1 receiver.” His targets-per-route have been steady but not elite, and Gretch sees no path for that metric to jump while aDOT remains north of 12. If the touchdown luck regresses to his career norm (6–7 scores), McLaurin projects outside the top-24 receivers, making his current WR18 ADP an easy avoid.

Leone warned drafters not to chase Terry McLaurin at his current cost. ETR’s full-PPR projections have the veteran below ADP and Leone said he’s personally “even more concerned.” McLaurin has hovered in the low-20% target-share range for four straight seasons and now projects to play in a Jaden Daniels–led offense that will lean on quarterback runs and designed rush attempts. Leone compared McLaurin’s outcome distribution to George Pickens—who goes two rounds later in most drafts—but noted Washington’s slower pace and more conservative play-calling further cap McLaurin’s ceiling. Without a path to 8-plus targets per game or spike-week touchdown equity, Leone labeled him a clear avoid in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Bob Harris told listeners to slide Terry McLaurin down a few spots because the veteran is threatening to hold out of training camp while angling for a new deal that will likely land around $30 million per year. Harris expects Washington to get something done—rookie-deal quarterback Jaden Daniels gives them plenty of cap flexibility—but he warned that every day McLaurin misses increases the odds of an early-season ramp-up similar to Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb last year (Chase was WR37 in targets through four weeks with just an 18 % target share, Lamb sat at 21.6 % before jumping to 25 % after reporting). Training-camp reps still matter, and Harris is temporarily moving McLaurin from the mid-WR2 tier to the fringe WR3 range in both best ball and season-long formats until the contract is signed.

Raymond Summerlin urged caution on Terry McLaurin even at an early-fourth-round ADP. He flagged several red indicators: McLaurin scored just four touchdowns last season despite 146 routes inside the red zone, and his 21% targets-per-route rate was below league average for a No. 1 wideout. Summerlin added that new OC Kliff Kingsbury did little to manufacture touches for perimeter receivers in Arizona, calling the scheme "not the creative usage we wanted." With Jahan Dotson and TE Ben Sinnott expected to siphon opportunities, Summerlin worries McLaurin’s ceiling is capped while his floor hinges on volatile TD variance, making him a pick he only makes when “the timer forces my hand.”

Best Ball Guy said he is confident Washington ultimately keeps Terry McLaurin and predicted the sides will compromise at roughly $25 million per year—likely a two-year pact with around $40 million guaranteed. He argued McLaurin holds more leverage than people realize because the Commanders need a stable No. 1 target for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and cannot afford another public relations hit. The tout expects the deal to get done before the bulk of training-camp practices, which would erase current holdout fears and allow McLaurin’s depressed ADP to bounce back. Drafting him now locks in closing-line value and preserves access to a proven 24-25 percent target-share receiver at a multi-round discount.

Best Ball Guy noted Terry McLaurin’s ADP is sliding while extension talks drag on, making the Jayden Daniels–McLaurin stack far cheaper than earlier in the offseason. He referenced how profitable the Commanders’ QB-WR stack was last year and plans to keep drafting it unless the holdout drags deep into camp. The risk of missing practice reps is outweighed by the chance to buy a proven 24-25% target share alpha several rounds below his usual cost.

Colm Kelly cautioned that Terry McLaurin’s 2023 touchdown reel is packed with one-off, non-repeatable plays—contested catches where defenders fell down or a busted coverage against Dallas that turned into a long score. McLaurin has never consistently commanded elite target share, so losing those low-probability TDs would leave drafters holding a shaky weekly floor on a third- or fourth-round pick. Kelly believes that makes McLaurin one of the scariest sink-hole selections in season-long leagues, preferring to chase younger receivers with ascending usage profiles instead.

Best Ball Guy said drafters should consciously pair Terry McLaurin with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels because almost no one is making that stack at current Underdog ADP. Daniels goes several rounds later, landing on "the other side of the board," which makes it easy to scoop him after securing McLaurin. He reminded viewers that a comparable "Jayden-to-Terry" connection would have produced roughly seven or eight week-winning scores in last year’s Battle Royale and DraftKings DFS slates, underscoring how explosive their weekly correlation can be in half-PPR best-ball tournaments. By grabbing McLaurin’s established 25-plus-percent target share and adding Daniels’ dual-threat ceiling and likely negative-game-script passing volume in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, managers gain a differentiated, high-variance stack that can separate in playoff weeks while still closing line value if Daniels’ ADP climbs in August.

Best Ball Guy advised scooping Terry McLaurin whenever the contract-driven slide pushes him into Round 4. He has repeatedly seen the McLaurin–Jaden Daniels combo post tournament-winning scores in weekly formats and believes the stack will be "week-winning" again if it hits during BBM6 playoffs. With virtually no target competition in Washington and confidence the front office will ultimately pay their captain, he views current ADP as a clear buying opportunity. The move secures exposure to Daniels’ upside while banking on McLaurin’s established alpha role at a suppressed cost.

Andy Holloway told listeners not to panic over Terry McLaurin’s contract dispute. McLaurin wants to cash in after a career-best, double-digit-TD season, but Holloway expects Washington to reach a compromise—likely a shorter two-year structure—because paying him "like Ja'Marr Chase" is off the table. Holloway does not see the 29.8-year-old pulling a Trey Hendrickson, forfeiting checks, or missing actual games. The only fantasy concern would be a hamstring tweak if McLaurin skips most of camp, but Holloway is drafting him at cost under the assumption he reports before Week 1.

Jim Coventry warned that Terry McLaurin’s 2024 draft price (inside the top-20 WRs) is inflated by last season’s fluky 13-touchdown outburst. From 2020-2023 McLaurin averaged 77-87 catches and roughly 1,000–1,100 yards but only 4–5 TDs. Coventry expects McLaurin to fall back to that baseline, noting the 29-year-old now competes with newcomer Deebo Samuel for red-zone looks and may not benefit from as many shootouts as Washington saw last year. In his view McLaurin should be valued closer to WR23-25, not WR18-19.

Nick Whalen warned that Terry McLaurin’s WR17 ADP bakes in last year’s outlier efficiency. McLaurin scored 13 touchdowns on just 83 receptions—finding the end zone on nearly 16% of his catches—even though he logged only seven games with eight-plus targets and finished outside the top-20 in total targets. Whalen doubts that strike rate repeats, noting new target competition from Deebo Samuel and the difficulty of maintaining such efficiency even with ascending QB Jayden Daniels. He expects serious touchdown regression and sees limited upside relative to draft cost.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Terry McLaurin is being overlooked despite being "a major draft winner." Pat’s logic is that Jayden Daniels landing in Washington removes the perpetual quarterback headache, giving McLaurin the most accurate passer of his career and solidifying him as an every-week chain-mover. Because Brian Robinson’s ADP surge has dominated Commanders talk, Pat thinks McLaurin’s price has stayed too low, making him a "safe click" whenever he slides past pick 50. In Best Ball he likes locking in McLaurin’s reliable 23% career target share and believes Daniels’ willingness to push the ball outside raises McLaurin’s ceiling without sacrificing floor.

Jason Moore said you should not pay 2024 prices for Terry McLaurin because last season’s 13 touchdowns are a classic outlier. McLaurin reached that total on fewer than 125 targets; Moore noted that scenario has happened only ten times in league history and nine of those ten receivers lost an average of 5.5 touchdowns the next season. If McLaurin repeats the 1,100 yards but falls to roughly seven scores, his weekly output drops to about 11 PPR points—right in line with his career norms instead of last year’s WR1 spike. Moore advised letting another drafter chase the highlight season and suggested dangling McLaurin in dynasty or keeper trades before the market corrects.

Andy Holloway defended Terry McLaurin’s spot inside his top‑15 ranks, reminding listeners the veteran just posted an 82‑114‑1,251 line with a career‑high 13 touchdowns and a 4‑yard‑higher aDOT than similarly ranked Ladd McConkey. While acknowledging 13 scores is unlikely to repeat, Holloway still expects double‑digit TDs because rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels showed a tendency to pepper his WR1 in the red zone at LSU. Debo Samuel’s arrival does siphon some target share, yet Holloway noted the Commanders’ coaching staff has openly talked about featuring pass‑catching running backs—something that historically stretches defenses and frees McLaurin downfield. With an ADP around WR16 (late third round), Holloway views him as a bargain WR1/2 whose worst‑case range of outcomes is a high‑floor WR2 season.