Chris Raybon called Trevor Lawrence the best sleeper on the board, pointing out that he’s still going around QB19-20—or undrafted—despite a plausible Baker Mayfield-style rebound under new coordinator Liam Cohn. Cohn’s lone NFL stint saw Tampa jump from average to elite in red-zone efficiency and dramatically boost yards-after-catch, the two areas Lawrence has struggled most. Jacksonville already rostered Brian Thomas Jr. and added Travis Hunter, giving the former first overall pick his deepest pass-catching corps yet. Raybon expects frequent shootouts, likes Lawrence’s underestimated rushing ability, and believes fantasy managers will know within a few weeks if they’ve hit on a free QB1.

FPTS Staff urged drafters to grab Trevor Lawrence at his QB21 ADP (174 overall), arguing he finally has the coordinator to break out. New play-caller Liam Coen just coaxed 4,500 yards, 41 TDs, 7.9 YPA and 22.6 fantasy PPG out of Baker Mayfield; Lawrence sits on a career 3.4 % TD rate and 6.8 YPA but logged 16.9 FPG in nine healthy games last year (QB15 pace). Coen wants him to run more—Mayfield doubled his career high to 378 rush yards under Coen, while Lawrence averaged only 1.3 scrambles in 2024 despite career marks of 3.9 rushes and 18.1 yards. Add the arrivals of 6'4" speedster Brian Thomas and two-way phenom Travis Hunter, plus a fresh five-year extension that cements organizational faith, and the staff believes a top-10 fantasy finish is firmly in play if the TD rate climbs even to league average.

Chris Allen advised scooping Trevor Lawrence in the 12th round or later as an inexpensive opening-month starter. Lawrence disappointed last season, but Allen pointed out that Jacksonville added vertical threat Brian Thomas and versatile weapon Travis Hunter while bringing in head coach Liam Coen, whose Tampa tenure was heavy on play-action and pace. Allen used 4for4’s schedule tool to flag a soft early slate, so managers can lock in starters at the premium positions, grab Lawrence as a plug-and-play QB, and pivot to waivers if the gamble fails—minimal opportunity cost, high upside if Coen's scheme clicks.

Clayton Gray said Trevor Lawrence still "screams value" in ESPN drafts. Footballguys rankers have bumped Lawrence from 129th to 126th overall, yet his ESPN ADP has only inched up to 181 after sitting at 202 earlier this summer. That 55-pick gap means fantasy managers can grab him nearly for free as a backup quarterback who still offers weekly ceiling games.

Bartle advised immediately following a Justin Fields pick with Trevor Lawrence if you wait until the final rounds for quarterbacks. Lawrence supplies the week-to-week passing stability that Fields may lack while still carrying his own ceiling in six-point-pass-TD formats. Bartle thinks the Lawrence–Fields combo can collectively finish inside the top 10 every week, and more importantly it frees drafters to hammer premium running backs and three starting wide receivers in the early rounds without sacrificing quarterback upside.

Erik Toft highlighted Trevor Lawrence as the late-round swing that could win leagues. He argued that every quarterback has improved the year after Liam Cohn left the building and believes the same post-Cohn bump is coming for Lawrence, whose ADP is a ridiculous 166 (QB23). Jacksonville added two-way phenom Travis Hunter – expected to play primarily wideout – and second-year breakout Brian Robinson Jr. to replenish the skill group. If Lawrence merely approaches the efficiency Baker Mayfield flashed in Jacksonville last season, Toft thinks a top-12 finish is well within reach, making him a smash in superflex and a high-ceiling backup in 1QB formats.

Ben Cummins ranked Trevor Lawrence QB17 (115 overall) but noted the market is even lower at 131 overall (QB19), presenting an easy buy. Lawrence was QB11 and QB16 in points per game in 2022-23 before last season’s injury issues. Cummins expects a career-best campaign after Jacksonville hired offensive-minded head coach Liam Coen, retained breakout star Brian Thomas Jr. and spent the No. 2 pick on two-way phenom Travis Hunter, giving Lawrence his most dynamic receiver trio to date. With health restored and upgraded scheme/weapons, Cummins believes Lawrence comfortably outscores his QB19 draft slot in Best Ball tournaments.

Dwain McFarland said Trevor Lawrence is a late-round steal after a career-worst 2024. Lawrence posted QB12 and QB8 seasons in 2022-23 while averaging 242 and 251 passing yards and sneaky rushing (17-21 YPG). New head coach Liam Coen revitalised Tampa Bay’s offense last year and now gets Lawrence throwing to No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter alongside Brian Thomas Jr. The downside is an offensive line graded near the bottom by both PFF and Brandon Thorn. Even so, McFarland’s model assigns Lawrence a 17.6 median, 22.9 ceiling and 14.5 floor, making him a high-end QB2 with legitimate spike-season QB1 upside for drafters who punt the position.

Chris Raybon said bettors should lean toward the under on Trevor Lawrence’s passing-yard prop because that side carries far more ways to cash. He pointed out that quarterback yardage medians are always lower than public perception, injuries or benchings only help an under ticket, and Jacksonville’s preferred game script—scoring early then leaning on the ground game—naturally suppresses Lawrence’s drop-back volume. Raybon added that avoiding the two-minute drill late in each half is critical, because extra hurried snaps are the enemy of an under. In his models the posted total sits several yards above the true median, giving at least a five-percentage-point edge at standard –110 juice.

Fantasy Nerds Staff predicted Trevor Lawrence will outperform his QB20 draft slot thanks to an improved supporting cast and play-calling upgrade. They noted that Lawrence has already produced at least 334 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in two different seasons, giving him sneaky Konami-Code appeal. New head coach Liam Coen is expected to emphasize a pass-friendly system, and the front office added dynamic wideout Travis Hunter to pair with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. With rushing floor, an aggressive scheme and the best weapon group of his pro career converging, the staff expects Lawrence to leap multiple ADP tiers and finish as a comfortable fantasy starter.

Sam Monson said Trevor Lawrence is poised for a significant leap in 2025. He likened Lawrence’s early ups-and-downs to the first-year struggles of Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and John Elway, noting all three eventually became elite. Monson believes the arrival of offensive coordinator Liam Cohen will “get the best out of him,” helping Jacksonville’s offense rebound. Because of the historical comps and coaching upgrade, Monson expects Lawrence to outperform current market expectations in season-long fantasy formats.

Steve Palazzolo said Trevor Lawrence is positioned for the best statistical season of his career under new head coach Liam Cohen. Palazzolo pointed out that Lawrence has hovered in the high-70s PFF-grade range since his difficult first season, mirroring Andrew Luck’s early trajectory before Luck jumped into the 90s in Year 5. He highlighted Cohen’s track record of elevating volatile quarterbacks—citing career-best campaigns from Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay and Will Levis at Kentucky—and argued that the Sean McVay-inspired offense should smooth out Lawrence’s drive-to-drive inconsistency. Add in the upgraded receiving duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, an "explosive" backfield, and a serviceable offensive line, and Palazzolo concluded that Lawrence "has the ability…to now have his best season." The combination of historical efficiency, schematic boost, and improved weapons makes Lawrence a buy in season-long formats and an appealing over bet on his 2025 passing props.

Fantasy Points Staff said Lawrence should be drafted near pick 166 because Liam Coen’s arrival could spark a Baker-Mayfield–style leap. They pointed to Mayfield’s career-best 4500 yards, 41 TDs, 22.6 FPG under Coen last season and argued that a similar system bump can raise Lawrence’s career 3.4% TD rate and 6.8 YPA. Lawrence already averaged 16.9 FPG in nine healthy 2024 games (would have ranked QB15) and supplies 18.1 rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs across four seasons. Jacksonville doubled down on weapons by spending the No. 2 pick on two-way threat Travis Hunter and adding vertical burner Brian Thomas, giving Lawrence his deepest receiving corps yet. Combine upgraded play-calling, contract security, and sneaky rushing floor (3.9 carries per game) and the staff believes he has clear top-10 season-long upside as a late-round “Mr. Relevant” swing.

Peter Overzet said Trevor Lawrence belongs on every three-QB best-ball roster right now because his Round-12 ADP sits squarely in the deepest value pocket of the entire draft (Rounds 10-13). Overzet lumped Lawrence in with other "bounce-back candidates with improved weaponry" and used a 2-v-2 comparison—Joe Burrow in Round 5 plus Trey Benson in Round 12 versus Joe Mixon in Round 5 plus Lawrence in Round 12—to illustrate that the Lawrence side tilts win probability and roster construction flexibility. By waiting on quarterback, drafters can grab premium RB/WR talent early, then slide Lawrence in as QB2 or QB3 alongside two other cheap passers, preserving upside while freeing capital at the top of the board.

Chris Raybon said that Trevor Lawrence is his favorite late-round quarterback target, ranking him QB10 while Yahoo lists him at QB19 and he usually goes off the board as QB26. Raybon expects a full-blown breakout because new coordinator Liam Cohn should repair every weak spot in Lawrence’s profile. He pointed out that Cohn’s Tampa offense turned Baker Mayfield into a top-two producer on sub-2.5-second throws and raised his yards per attempt by two, whereas Lawrence was bottom-five in that split and got only 4.8 yards of YAC per completion. Cohn also spiked Mayfield’s red-zone touchdown rate to 37% after it had been 23% the year before; Lawrence’s career rate is 20%, so Raybon anticipates huge TD regression upward. The coach likewise took a bottom-two Buccaneers run-blocking line to sixth in yards before contact, something the Jaguars badly need. Add fresh talent in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter plus Lawrence’s sneaky rushing value, and Raybon believes you can get Justin Fields–level fantasy production almost for free. He’s drafting Lawrence everywhere, even as a QB2, ready to evaluate the first couple of weeks and cut bait only if the offensive overhaul disappoints.

When Trevor Lawrence slid roughly 30 spots past ADP, Best Ball Guy said you simply "have to take that value." He noted that grabbing an elite young quarterback at that discount stabilizes a roster even if you’re thin at other positions, and it backfills late-round Jaguar stacks like Brenton Strange or Parker Washington without forcing additional exposure. In tournaments where every half-point matters, locking in a franchise passer at a 2-round bargain is the easiest way to accumulate closing-line value and separate from the field.

Adam Kaufman compared FanDuel’s season props of 3700.5 passing yards and 22.5 touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence and argued the yardage over is reachable while the touchdown number remains dicey. He pointed to Liam Cohen’s new system that gives Lawrence “an answer for everything at the line,” plus field-stretchers like rookie Brian Thomas and the two-way dynamo Travis Hunter to juice chunk gains. However, Lawrence has never been a high-volume TD thrower (only 26 scores across his best 17-game split) and lost safety-blanket Evan Engram, which caps red-zone upside. Health remains the wild card after two injury-shortened seasons. Kaufman’s actionable angle: bet the over on yards but tread carefully—or even lean under—on touchdowns unless camp reports show significant red-zone growth.

Chris Raybon doubled down on Trevor Lawrence as a breakout, this time drilling into the Liam Cohen effect. Raybon highlighted three problem areas that have capped Lawrence’s fantasy ceiling – yards after catch (bottom-4 a year ago), efficiency on throws released in under 2.5 seconds (near the league cellar), and a red-zone TD rate of just 20% versus a 25% league average. He pointed out that Baker Mayfield experienced massive jumps in all three categories during Cohen’s lone year running Tampa’s offense: YAC per completion climbed almost a full yard into the top-10, quick-throw yards per attempt vaulted near the league lead, and Mayfield’s red-zone TD rate soared to 37%. Raybon believes those schematic gains will transfer to Jacksonville because Cohen emphasizes motion, predetermined “scheme throws,” and red-zone play design born from the McVay tree. He also noted Cohen’s immediate impact on the Bucs’ offensive line – taking an identical personnel group from bottom-2 to top-6 in run-blocking yards before contact – as another lever that should give Lawrence cleaner pockets and more YAC opportunities. With better health, an upgraded line, and Cohen calling plays, Raybon projected Lawrence to leap from the QB2 cluster into the top-6-to-8 range, making him a priority mid-round pick in season-long and best-ball drafts.

Chris Raybon predicted a major rebound for Trevor Lawrence now that Liam Coen is calling plays. Raybon likened Lawrence’s situation to what Coen did for Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay, noting the Buccaneers jumped from 20.5 to 29.5 points per game while Mayfield posted career highs in passing yards, touchdowns and rushing yards. Raybon expects Coen to generate a similar leap for Jacksonville, especially with Lawrence finally healthy after last year’s shoulder issues and free from the "god-awful" coaching carousel that began with Urban Meyer and continued through Press Taylor. Because Lawrence’s ADP sits in the same range as unproven options like McCarthy, Raybon views him as a value pick capable of a top-10 fantasy finish if the Jaguars offense experiences even a fraction of Tampa’s scoring spike.

James Koh stressed that Trevor Lawrence sitting at QB21—almost 100 picks after Baker Mayfield—is “bonkers.” He argued Lawrence is finally in a stable coaching environment after escaping Urban Meyer’s fiasco and now benefits from offensive mind Liam Cohen. Jacksonville also bolstered the supporting cast with rookie playmakers Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. The real cheat code, per Koh, is Lawrence’s rushing upside: after a career-low rushing workload in 2023, Koh guarantees 300-plus yards and boldly predicts 350+, projecting Lawrence to finish top-10 among quarterbacks in rushing yards and overall fantasy points. The massive gap between cost and ceiling makes him a must-buy.

Johnny Venezia urged drafters to consider the Trevor Lawrence–Brian Thomas Jr. stack as a speculative league-winner. Jacksonville hired Liam Cohn away from Tampa Bay, and Venezia believes the new OC will import the high-scoring Bucs scheme. Thomas, whose ADP is 17 (solid Round-2 price), finished 2024 on fire—either 90 yards or a TD in each of his final four games and a season line of 87-1,282-10—prompting Venezia to sprinkle Offensive Player of the Year bets at 35-to-1. Lawrence has disappointed of late, but his ADP of 132 places him in the early double-digit rounds as a QB2 with upside to exceed expectations under Cohn. Venezia expects Thomas to be a weekly set-and-forget play and envisions favorable weeks where managers elevate Lawrence from the bench to capture stack explosions, calling it "definitely worth a look" given the low cost on the quarterback side.

Chris Raybon said Trevor Lawrence is the easiest way to unlock an overlooked ceiling because the entire Jacksonville offense is priced for uncertainty. New coordinator Liam Cohn just coaxed a QB3 finish out of Baker Mayfield—career-best yards, touchdowns, and even rushing output—and Raybon believes Lawrence’s superior arm talent plus sneaky legs can replicate that spike season. First-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. profiles as an alpha WR1 yet goes several rounds later than comparable rookies, Hunter Remy’s target share is anyone’s guess, and the backfield touches are wide open, keeping every Jaguar discount. Raybon likes starting with Thomas Jr., then securing Lawrence a few picks ahead of ADP; any combination of Hunter, Diami Brown or tight end Brenton Strange can be added late without reaching. The upside comes from multiple correlated bets on an offense he calls a "crypto moon-bag"—little downside, massive profit if Cohn’s scheme clicks.

Jeff Mueller reviewed Trevor Lawrence’s offseason left-shoulder labrum repair and concluded the only fantasy-relevant risk is a brief dip in early-season deep accuracy and velocity. Even though it is Lawrence’s non-throwing arm, quarterbacks still rely on the lead shoulder to generate rotational torque, so any biomechanical compensation could show up on passes 20-plus yards downfield. Mueller expects those glitches to disappear quickly—if they even surface—given Lawrence’s timeline and the amount of mechanic work already completed. Rich Hribar added that new OC Liam Coen designs first-read-friendly concepts, dovetailing with Lawrence’s tendency to lock onto his primary option, which should further mask any transient accuracy loss. Because Lawrence was already a middling deep passer in 2024, Mueller does not downgrade him in season-long or best-ball drafts. Investors should simply monitor early-September air-yard efficiency; if it checks out, Lawrence profiles as the same mid-QB1 tied to a condensed read progression passing game.

Eric Polzin advised betting the OVER on Trevor Lawrence’s 3,624.5 passing-yard prop at PrizePicks, noting that Underdog, FanDuel, and DraftKings all list the Jaguar QB roughly 75–100 yards higher around 3,700. Polzin compared Lawrence’s situation to Baker Mayfield’s 2023 renaissance under a creative play-caller and believes Jacksonville’s new offensive mind can unlock similar growth. Improved weaponry also drives the bullish stance: first-rounders Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way star Travis Hunter join Christian Kirk and Evan Engram to give Lawrence the deepest pass-catching corps of his career. With an upgraded supporting cast and a discounted line relative to the market, Polzin projects 3,800–3,900 yards and labeled the PrizePicks figure a clear buy-low spot.

Hayden Winks said Trevor Lawrence is a cautious buy-low who should rebound from last year’s statistical crater but still belongs in the middle-tier QB2 bucket. Winks rattled off the red flags that sank him to a bottom-five pressured-dropback EPA: an NFL-high first-read target rate, scatter-shot feet that lengthened throws, and a league-worst interception rate when bodies closed in. He reminded listeners Lawrence actually finished #1 in average depth of target and flashed elite arm talent—citing a layered end-zone missile against Miami—but injuries and pocket chaos exposed how long his 6-6 frame takes to reset. Winks expects new OC Liam Coen to ‘calm the hero-ball instincts,’ add more rhythm concepts, and lean on Travis Etienne and Brian Thomas to create layups. The outcome he projects is a cleaner progression through the year and a 4,100-yard, 26-TD stat line—good enough to stream or pair in best ball, but not the top-10 leap drafters once chased.

Kelley Bydlon declined the +550 prop on Trevor Lawrence to throw 30-plus touchdowns. Bydlon reminded listeners that only five quarterbacks reached 30 TDs last season—and stars like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jaden Daniels and Justin Herbert all fell short—so the implied probability here feels aggressive. Lawrence has never sniffed that threshold on a per-game basis, has a worrisome injury history that forced Mac Jones onto the field in 2024, and now loses red-zone weapon Evan Engram while relying on rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and a shallow receiving corps. Until Jacksonville’s offense shows genuine top-five upside under new coordinator Liam Cohen, Bydlon prefers to sit this one out.

Nick Holz projected Trevor Lawrence to rebound in 2025 under new play-caller Liam Cohen, who just engineered Baker Mayfield’s career year (4,500 yards, 41 TDs) and a 31 percent fantasy-point jump in Tampa. Holz argued Lawrence’s pre-Cohen numbers already mirror Mayfield’s pre-breakout profile, and Jacksonville has upgraded the supporting cast by adding two freak athletes—Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr.—to Calvin Ridley’s old outside role. With Cohen designing a vertically aggressive scheme, Holz expects Lawrence to eclipse DraftKings’ 3,700.5-yard prop (±110) and regain the 25-TD, 4,000-yard form he showed in 2023. Lawrence’s ADP currently trails the elite tier, so Holz labeled him a prime mid-round target for season-long drafters looking to bank top-5 upside at a discount.

Connor Allen called Trevor Lawrence a worthwhile 50-to-1 MVP dart if you are already bullish on Jacksonville. He sketched out the path: the Jaguars would need 11–12 wins because MVP voters rarely reward quarterbacks below that threshold, and the defense or run game will not carry them there. That means Lawrence must replicate the Baker-Mayfield-in-Tampa stat line Cohn coaxed out the past two seasons—around 4,700 yards and 42 touchdowns. Given Lawrence’s first healthy offseason in two years, upgraded weapon set, and a late-season schedule where Jacksonville is favored in all but one contest, Allen believes the top-range outcome is firmly in play and the 50-to-1 number compensates for the longshot nature.

Ben Gretch said Liam Cohen is the ‘perfect fit’ to unlock Trevor Lawrence’s ceiling. Cohen’s red-zone play design nudged Baker Mayfield to a career-best 40 touchdowns and shrank his ADOT for easier completions—exactly what Lawrence has lacked. Gretch expects Cohen to lower Lawrence’s average depth of target, create more underneath lay-ups, and convert stalled drives into TDs rather than field goals. With Jacksonville’s talented skill group and Cohen’s track record of manufacturing wide-open looks for backs and slot receivers, Gretch projected a 5+% pass-TD rate (up from 3.6 %) and labeled Lawrence a buy as a late QB1 who could crack the top-6 if the Jaguars finish top-10 in red-zone efficiency.

Tom Strachan said bettors should take the OVER on Trevor Lawrence’s 22.5-touchdown pick-em line. Strachan argued that everything around Lawrence is pointed upward for 2025: 1) the Jaguars hired Liam Cohen, the play-caller who just engineered Baker Mayfield’s career year (41 TDs, 71 % completion rate, 4,500 yards, 7.9 YPA — all personal bests). 2) Lawrence finally gets a full season with Brian Thomas Jr., who scored double-digit TDs and finished third in receiving yards despite running only a 76 % route rate before Week 11; Strachan expects that rate to sit north of 90 % all season. 3) Swiss-army rookie Travis Hunter gives Jacksonville another explosive option — and Strachan believes the coaching staff will keep him at wide receiver whenever the offense sputters. With better coaching, two legitimate play-makers, and no injury hang-ups, Strachan projects Lawrence “closer to 30 TDs,” making 22.5 far too low.

Davis Mattek said he is "pro Trevor Lawrence" this season, arguing the third-year passer can return to his 2022 form—and potentially eclipse it—now that Liam Cohen is calling plays and the Jaguars have injected first-round talents Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter into the receiver room. Mattek reminded listeners that the 2022 Jags supported 84-1100-8 from Christian Kirk and 82-823-5 from Zay Jones on a team that won nine games and upset the Chargers in the playoffs. He believes swapping Kirk/Jones targets for the far more explosive BTJ and Hunter creates an environment where Lawrence’s down-field aggressiveness from his Clemson days can resurface. With Urban Meyer’s setback in the rear-view mirror and no established target hogs on the roster, Mattek projects Lawrence to flirt with 4,400 yards and 30+ touchdowns, making him a cheap stack candidate in Best Ball and a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside in traditional season-long leagues.

Josh Norris said Trevor Lawrence is the easiest late-round quarterback swing on the board because Liam Cohen’s arrival can do for Lawrence what it just did for Baker Mayfield. Mayfield was drafted as QB22 last season and finished QB5 in points per game under Cohen, largely thanks to wide-open red-zone concepts that juiced a career-best touchdown rate. Norris expects a similar efficiency jump for Lawrence, who already ranked second in intended air yards last year despite operating in a broken scheme and playing through a visible collarbone injury. The supporting cast has been upgraded with rookie burner Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way threat Travis Hunter, while Jacksonville’s run game remains thin, further tilting volume toward the passing attack. Norris reminded listeners that Lawrence quietly averaged 20.2 rushing yards per game in 2023 and scored five rushing TDs in 2022; Baker doubled his own rushing average under Cohen (10.3 to 22.2 YPG), so designed runs could push Lawrence to six-plus scores. Add the safer floor of Cohen’s on-script reads to Lawrence’s existing deep-ball aggression and Norris projects a finish “closer to QB7 than QB19,” making him a slam-dunk 12th-round target in best-ball and season-long drafts.

Danny Heifetz said Trevor Lawrence is being criminally under-drafted at QB19 (12.11 on Underdog) despite a perfect storm of breakout factors. He highlighted new coordinator Liam Cohen—fresh off coaxing career-best efficiency from Baker Mayfield and top-5 WR production for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin—as a potential "transformative" hire. Heifetz argued Lawrence’s raw talent eclipses Mayfield’s, making a QB5-type leap realistic. The entire Jaguars stack is cheap and easy: Brian Thomas Jr. in round 2, Travis Hunter in round 6, Tank Bigsby round 13, Brenton Strange round 14, giving drafters multiple affordable pairings. He emphasized the value gap by noting Lawrence currently goes next to Javonte Williams and Jake Ferguson and even after fringe players like Isaac Guerendo. In short, Heifetz views Lawrence and the Jaguars as the clearest low-cost, high-ceiling stack in Best Ball drafts this summer.

PropStarz labeled Trevor Lawrence a "decent value" at +500 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year. The award has gone to quarterbacks in seven straight seasons (roughly 88% historically), and the AP’s 2024 guidance now emphasizes returning from injury — a box Lawrence checks after appearing in just 10 games while battling multiple ailments. PropStarz noted Lawrence’s narrative juice if Jacksonville surges during the league’s sixth-easiest late-season schedule (per Warren Sharp) and contends for the AFC South. Although Dak Prescott is his favorite in the market, PropStarz believes Lawrence has as good a shot as any longshot behind Dak, given the QB bias and his injury storyline.

R.J. White said he is betting Trevor Lawrence to stay below the market line of 22.5 passing touchdowns. White pointed to three key issues: 1) Lawrence owns the lowest TD-rate of any quarterback with 1,600+ attempts since 2021, so history says he does not convert yards to scores efficiently; 2) Jacksonville’s first seven games feature Cincinnati, Houston, San Francisco, Kansas City, Seattle and the Rams, a brutal stretch that should suppress early scoring and magnify every missed week if Lawrence gets dinged again; 3) the rebuilt offensive line and first-time play-caller Liam Cohen create extra growing-pain risk, while Baker Mayfield’s 2023 outlier of 41 TDs under Cohen came with a sturdier line and deeper weapons. White believes 25 touchdowns is Lawrence’s absolute ceiling if he plays 17 games, leaving little margin for an over. Any ankle, shoulder or concussion flare-up would make the under a near lock.

Reviewing his portfolio, Best Ball Guy realized he has only one Trevor Lawrence–Brian Thomas Jr. stack in 57 BBM6 drafts and said he plans to correct that immediately. He feels Lawrence is being priced closer to his floor after an injury-marred 2023, yet Jacksonville quietly upgraded its pass-catcher room with Thomas’s down-field speed. Eric likes that you can usually get Lawrence in the late sixth and Thomas three to four rounds later, creating a cheap Week-17 bring-back versus Carolina while leaving salary to chase elite onesies.

Chris Liss painted Trevor Lawrence as a screaming value in both best-ball and redraft. Liss can "easily see" Lawrence throwing 35 touchdowns, adding 3–4 rushing scores and roughly 400 rushing yards— a stat line that would land him firmly inside the top-five fantasy quarterbacks. Despite that ceiling, Lawrence is virtually free to stack after selecting Brian Thomas in Round 1 and Travis Hunter in Round 5/6, because drafters can “pick which round you want him in.” Liss emphasized the tournament appeal of a Thomas/Hunter/Lawrence stack, noting that coherent game-stack constructions rarely come this cheaply.

Sam Monson said Trevor Lawrence still owns "top-eight quarterback potential" for season-long fantasy, citing his 90.3 PFF grade from Weeks 9-18 of 2022—third behind only Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson and ahead of Patrick Mahomes. That run showed star-level efficiency: 69% completion, 7.1% big-time throw rate, and just 1.2% turnover-worthy plays. Monson warned, however, that Lawrence’s week-to-week consistency remains a genuine concern; injuries and mechanical lapses produced multiple sub-60 grades in 2023. In his view Lawrence profiles as a high-ceiling, low-floor QB1 best paired with a safe backup in redraft leagues or used selectively in DFS shoots where ceiling is prized.

Wyatt Bertolone wants to be above market on Trevor Lawrence at his QB19, 134.1 ADP. He argues that new head coach Liam Coen—whose lone year coordinating Tampa Bay showcased an ability to maximize talent—will modernize Jacksonville’s attack. The Jaguars supplied Lawrence with blue-chip receiver Travis Hunter and versatile back Bhayshul Tuten, giving him the best weapons of his career. With physical tools never in doubt and a friendly scheme incoming, Bertolone believes Lawrence is an underpriced quarterback on a breakout offense, precisely the profile that delivers league-winning upside in Best Ball tournaments.

Chris Raybon targeted Trevor Lawrence in Rounds 12–13, arguing new OC Liam Cohn can unlock the ceiling the former No. 1 pick has only flashed. Raybon highlighted three data points that scream coaching upgrade: (1) On throws released in under 2.5 seconds, Lawrence averaged just 5.1 YPA last year—bottom five of 44 qualifiers—while Baker Mayfield posted 6.8 YPA (2nd) and a league-leading 28 quick-throw TDs in Cohn’s Rams system. (2) Lawrence’s completions generated only 4.8 YAC per catch (30th); Mayfield jumped to 6.0—top of the league—his first season with Cohn thanks to route combinations that create space. (3) Lawrence has converted only 20% of red-zone throws into TDs (league average ~25%); Mayfield spiked to 37% under Cohn. Raybon believes similar schematic tweaks—better route stacking, pre-snap motion and layered concepts—will spike Lawrence’s TD rate and efficiency without requiring heroic play. With Calvin Ridley gone but bigger after-catch weapons added, Raybon projects Lawrence to beat his ADP handily and sees him as the perfect finishing piece to Jaguars stacks in Best Ball drafts.

Donnie Rightside said there is no need to downgrade Trevor Lawrence after the quarterback was spotted wearing a compression sleeve on his throwing arm at Jaguars mini-camp. Rightside framed the sleeve as routine maintenance for "general soreness" that comes from ramping up to full-speed reps—similar to why teams carry five or six camp arms so starters do not throw 160 balls every practice. Lawrence still took every drill rep and has no structural damage, so Rightside is treating him as a full-go QB1 for season-long and best-ball drafts. He added that any fantasy manager worried about the sleeve should remember camp arms are about preserving starters, not hiding injuries.

Pat Kerrane called Trevor Lawrence the single most mis-priced quarterback in best-ball drafts, noting that his current 134 overall ADP should be at least 15–20 picks earlier—and he would still take Lawrence in the 90s if that became market price. Lawrence finished 2024 eighth in drop-backs, added Brian Thomas Jr. and Keon Coleman to an already fast-paced Jaguars attack, and now gets an improved tackle tandem after Jacksonville invested two early picks in the offensive line. Kerrane emphasized that Lawrence’s 20.4 expected fantasy points per game last season already sit in the low-end QB1 range; the real unlock comes if the Jaguars’ red-zone efficiency regresses upward from last year’s 27th-ranked mark. Because Lawrence also offers a sneaky rushing baseline (averaging 22 yards and 0.2 rushing TDs per game), Kerrane believes he carries top-six season-long upside while being routinely drafted as the QB16–QB17.

Conner Allen advised taking a stab at Trevor Lawrence at 50-1 for MVP, insisting bettors are over-reacting to 2024’s hot-and-cold tape. Allen pointed out that Jacksonville stole two explosive pass-catchers—rookie burner Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way phenom Travis Hunter—then imported Liam Coen to infuse Kentucky-style vertical concepts that accentuate Lawrence’s deep-ball accuracy. In Doug Pederson’s last two seasons the Jags already ranked top-eight in early-down pass rate; Allen expects that to climb further with improved protection after re-signing both starting tackles. If Lawrence pairs 4,700 yards and 35 TDs with an AFC South title, voters will frame it as a third-year leap reminiscent of Josh Allen’s 2020 campaign. Allen called the 50-1 number “five weeks from extinction” once preseason clips of Hunter mossing corners hit social media.

Tyler Sullivan endorsed betting Trevor Lawrence at +430 (fourth-shortest) to win Comeback Player of the Year, noting the quarterback has a clearer runway than Dak Prescott. Sullivan highlighted a fresh offensive scheme under first-year head coach Liam Cohen—known for pass-heavy concepts with the Rams and Buccaneers—and an upgraded receiver room featuring first-rounder Travis Hunter opposite Brian Thomas Jr. Lawrence’s issue has been volatility: before last year’s injury he completed just 52% of his passes in September, then 70% in October. Sullivan expects Cohen to iron out those wild swings and make Lawrence more consistent. With elite weapons, a favorable AFC South schedule, and the inherent award bias toward quarterbacks, Sullivan considers Lawrence both a strong futures wager and a buy-low target in best-ball and season-long formats.

Steve Palazzolo said the Jaguars have finally surrounded Trevor Lawrence with the weapons needed for a breakout fantasy season. With the "one-two punch" of newly drafted Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, plus coordinator Liam Cohen’s aggressive passing scheme and a multi-year-intact offensive line, Palazzolo believes 2024 is Lawrence’s best opportunity to jump from his current "top-10-to-12" fantasy standing into the true QB1 tier. The combination of a vertical burner (Thomas), an elite separator (Hunter), and existing depth pieces like Gabe Davis gives Lawrence legitimate multi-touchdown weekly upside. Palazzolo views the Jaguars’ roster construction as trending toward a Rams-style "stars and scrubs" model that will funnel volume through its elite playmakers—further boosting Lawrence’s counting stats in season-long formats.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound advised best-ball drafters to be comfortable reaching a round for Trevor Lawrence in the Sprint because quarterback ADPs are shooting up in fast drafts. Auto-drafters are snapping up signal-callers 10-plus spots ahead of slow-draft averages, which makes it easy to get shut out of a double-stack if you wait for published ADP. Pat was already invested in a Jacksonville stack and decided to grab Lawrence around pick 130 instead of his usual 140s landing spot to lock in the pairing. He noted that securing a full Lawrence–Ridley–Engram or Lawrence–Kirk stack is worth the slight overpay in a contest that crowns its champion on cumulative Weeks 15-17 scoring, where correlated spike weeks can leapfrog dozens of entries.

Billy Jones said drafters should start taking Trevor Lawrence a round earlier than current BBM6 ADP because the Jacksonville stack is about to get far more expensive. He pointed out that rookie wideouts Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. both project to settle in the late-Round-3 / early-Round-4 pocket, creating a clean three-four turn pairing with Lawrence. Once the market fully prices in those weapons, Jones expects Lawrence’s ADP to jump two to three spots among quarterbacks. He advised taking advantage of the temporary discount, emphasizing that Lawrence already averages 37 pass attempts per game under Doug Pederson and now gains two explosive perimeter targets to complement Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.

Erik Beimfohr called Trevor Lawrence one of his favorite quarterback targets at current mid-round prices, stressing that Jacksonville’s offseason haul sets up a perfect storm for fantasy upside. The Jaguars traded up for Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall and added Brian Thomas Jr. later in Round 1, then handed the offense to pass-happy coordinator Liam Cohen. Beimfohr believes that trio injects enough vertical juice to turn the Jaguars into a top-tier passing attack and create weekly spike-week ceilings. Because drafters remain lukewarm—Lawrence often lasts until the eighth or ninth round—Beimfohr is hammering Lawrence–Thomas–Hunter stacks as a discounted avenue to elite correlation in Best Ball tournaments.

Mike Renner said the Jaguars have finally surrounded Trevor Lawrence with two true man-beaters in Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., calling both "force multipliers" who will instantly change the passing game. Renner noted that before this draft Lawrence did not have a single receiver he could trust to win one-on-one, which showed up whenever defenses went to man coverage. Now he has two, and Renner expects new play-caller Liam Cohen to lean on that advantage. Renner framed Hunter as a "two-for-one" pick who gives Jacksonville a second explosive wideout while still keeping the option of occasional snaps on defense. With Lawrence now equipped to punish man looks and Jacksonville committing first-round capital to wide receiver in back-to-back seasons, Renner projected the Jaguars’ 2025 offense to be "unbelievably exciting" and advised fantasy managers to treat Lawrence as a buy-low QB1 in season-long and best-ball formats, banking on a spike in touchdown rate and explosive plays.