Justin Herzig framed Tyler Allgeier as one of the best late-round swings in Best Ball Mania. Allgeier sits parked around pick 155 every summer, yet Herzig noted he still flashes occasional 100-yard, multi-touchdown games in a run-centric Arthur Smith attack. The real appeal, though, is contingent upside: if Bijan Robinson ever misses time, Allgeier would inherit nearly all early-down and goal-line work in an offense that already ranked top-three in rush rate. Herzig compared the situation to Zach Charbonnet behind Kenneth Walker and Jaylen Warren behind Najee Harris, but argued Allgeier’s path is cleaner because Atlanta funnels touches to one back once the bell-cow is out. The one hole in the profile is passing-game usage—Allgeier owns just 2.9 targets per game for his career—so a Bijan injury would boost touchdowns and carries more than receptions. Even with that limitation, Herzig believes Allgeier’s week-winning ceiling makes him a must-click at his stagnant ADP.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound grabbed Tyler Allgeier as his fourth running back and explained why he thinks the pick is sneaky-important. Even in a healthy Bijan Robinson season, Pat projects Allgeier for roughly 120 touches based on Arthur Smith’s historical preference for 1A/1B backfield splits. The 25-year-old already owns a 1,000-yard rookie season and posted 4.7 yards per carry on neutral-situation runs last year. Should Bijan miss time, Allgeier would jump into a 20-touch role on a run-centric offense that finished first in rush rate over expectation. Pat views that contingent upside as perfect glue for zero-RB or hero-RB builds where you are hunting playoff spikes rather than weekly floor.

Pete Overzet said Tyler Allgeier is his most-drafted late-round running back because he checks both of the boxes that matter in May best-ball rooms: (1) he is the unquestioned handcuff to Bijan Robinson and (2) he still projects for weekly touches even if Bijan stays healthy. Overzet compared Allgeier’s profile to Zach Charbonnet—clear takeover path, competent on early downs—but noted Allgeier goes three to four rounds later while offering similar contingent upside. He called Allgeier a noticeably better pure runner than other backs in this pocket, such as Rico Dowdle, and emphasized that Arthur Smith’s ground-heavy tendencies last season still produced 59 backfield high-value touches behind Bijan. In short, Allgeier gives you the ‘locked-in active’ floor plus league-tilting upside if Bijan ever misses time, all for a double-digit ADP price tag.

Erik Beimfohr closed Round-13 by touting Tyler Allgeier as the quintessential premium handcuff. Arthur Smith’s Falcons led the league in rush rate over expectation last year (-11 %) and kept the same run-heavy DNA under Zac Robinson, giving Allgeier a weekly 6–8 carry floor in non-Bijan snaps. Beimfohr noted Allgeier already has two games of 20+ fantasy points on his resume and handled 203 touches as a rookie, proof he can shoulder the full load if Bijan Robinson were to miss even a couple quarters with a concussion or hamstring tweak. Falcons RBs combined for 23 carries inside the five in 2024— third-most in the NFL— so any multi-week absence from Bijan would instantly make Allgeier an every-week RB1. At a cost outside the top-150, that blend of defined contingency value and minor standalone scoring equity makes Allgeier an easy late click whenever Beimfohr fades early running backs.

Pete Overzet cannot understand why drafters keep letting Tyler Allgeier tumble two rounds past ADP. Allgeier is the unquestioned RB2 behind Bijan Robinson, so you’re already playing a binary contingent bet— yet you also get a player who logged 40 percent of Atlanta’s carries inside the five last year and averaged 4.3 yards per attempt in a dysfunctional offense. Overzet emphasized that at this price you avoid the land mines of nebulous depth-chart battles; you know Allgeier is the immediate replacement if Robinson misses time and a weekly change-of-pace option who won’t goose-egg your best-ball roster. He called the perpetual ADP slide “free closing-line value” and said Allgeier is quietly becoming his most-drafted running back because the room refuses to click him.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Tyler Allgeier a top-three—and perhaps No. 1—handcuff in 2024 best-ball drafts. He noted Allgeier already owns a 1,035-yard rookie season, eclipsing any single-season line from Zach Charbonnet, yet the two backs are separated by nearly two rounds. Atlanta projects as one of the run-heaviest offenses under Raheem Morris, and new OC Zac Robinson has stressed keeping Bijan Robinson fresh for a playoff push. That opens a path to 8-10 scripted carries per game even without an injury. Pat also pointed out Allgeier’s 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate and three-down skill set, which would vault him into weekly RB1 territory if Bijan misses time. Given the uncertain workloads behind other workhorse backs, Pat is comfortable drafting Allgeier 2-3 spots ahead of ADP and capping exposure only when it exceeds 12-15 percent.