Steve Seagrave recommended Tyreek Hill OVER 22.5 yards for his longest reception at ‑110. According to Seagrave, Tua Tagovailoa has been force-feeding Hill—evident in a 47-yard bomb against New England last week after a quieter opener where Hill’s long catch was 21 yards. Buffalo held Jets receivers in check in Week 2, but their secondary showed cracks in a Week 1 shootout when Zay Flowers (39 yards) and DeAndre Hopkins (29 yards) both cleared this number. Hill himself logged a 28-yard grab the last time he visited Orchard Park. Corner Christian Benford won’t shadow him all game, and Hill’s world-class speed gives him a separation edge on any coverage. While thunderstorms are possible, Seagrave noted the receiver always ‘knows where he’s going,’ giving him an advantage on slick turf. With Buffalo favored by 12.5, Miami is projected to chase points, setting up multiple down-field shots to Hill and making one reception of 23+ yards the most likely outcome.

Kaylor flagged Tyreek Hill as a must-have ceiling play even though he has not found the end zone yet in 2025. He cited Hill’s Hall-of-Fame resume—808 career catches, 11,247 yards, 82 receiving TDs, plus 819 rushing yards and seven more scores—as proof the explosion is coming. While 2024 showed mild regression (81-959-6), Hill still opened 2025 with 10 grabs for 149 yards at a healthy 14.9 YPC, demonstrating the trademark speed. Facing a Bills secondary that allowed 148 passing yards to Garrett Wilson the week prior, Kaylor expects Hill’s volume and big-play ability to smash his mid-tier Showdown salary and provide tournament-winning upside.

John Middlekauff said Tyreek Hill’s real-world value has fallen far faster than the public realizes. He compared Hill to an aging NBA star whose name recognition obscures declining trade leverage: the contract is massive, the soon-to-be-31-year-old speedster is nearing the athletic cliff, and a fresh round of domestic-violence headlines only tightens the market. Middlekauff believes NFL front offices would only bite if Miami ate salary and accepted late-round compensation, a signal that fantasy and dynasty managers should explore sell-high windows before perception finally catches up to reality.

Pat Fitzmaurice moved Tyreek Hill four spots below ECR, noting a production drop from 1,799 yards in 2023 to 959 in 2024. The biggest culprit was Tua Tagovailoa’s intended air yards falling from 7.7 to 5.7 per attempt. Jonnu Smith’s exit may free up a few targets, but Hill is now 31, and Fitzmaurice doubts we can count on full seasons from either Hill or Tua. He expects a rebound, just not enough to pay off mid-second-round draft capital.

Johnny Venezia advised fading Tyreek Hill at his WR12, 28th-overall cost. Hill’s 2024 line fell to 81 receptions, 959 yards and six touchdowns on just 123 targets—his lightest workload since 2019. Hill even admitted he "wasn’t 100 percent sure" of his role, and Venezia highlighted contradictory statements between Hill and Mike McDaniel as signs of a chaotic locker room. Venezia believes McDaniel could be the first head coach fired and wants no part of the Dolphins passing game at current prices. Given the turmoil, he would rather invest that late-second pick in stabler situations like Bucky Irving in Tampa.

Josh Norris said Tyreek Hill is still a ceiling-breaking pick at his new third-round ADP. He noted that whenever Miami’s protection held last season the offense repeatedly hit the 20–30-yard window, and an upgraded line should keep Tua Tagovailoa healthy enough to recreate that deep-shot environment. The combination of a healthy Tua and Mike McDaniel’s vertical play-calling gives Hill a higher upside than Garrett Wilson, while drafters are paying a full round-plus cheaper than in 2023-24. Norris concluded that the league-winning ceiling outweighs the slightly wider downside band at the current discount.

Mattek admitted he’s re-entering the ‘fade Tyreek’ camp after Tua Tagovailoa publicly said “a lot of work needs to be done” to repair his relationship with Hill. Mattek calls that quote ‘crazy to just be out in the world’ and says the off-field tension, plus earlier concerns he had already expressed, is enough to push Hill back behind ADP in his current Best Ball rankings. While he concedes Hill remains an elite talent, the quarterback-receiver friction introduces downside he’s no longer comfortable paying a premium for.

Andy Holloway pointed out that Tyreek Hill is back at practice and fully healthy, yet he continues to slide past his usual ADP in mock drafts because drafters remain nervous about the earlier hamstring scare. Holloway noted that landing Hill in the fourth round of this 10-team draft gives managers a proven first-round talent at a steep discount and urged listeners not to let lingering injury hesitation keep them from scooping up the value.

Andrew Erickson listed Tyreek Hill as a bust. Even in 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa, Hill cleared 100 yards only twice and averaged 12.4 fantasy points (WR18). A Week-1 wrist injury helped drag his yards per route run to 1.75—less than half of his 2023 figure. Now 31, Hill approaches the typical wide-receiver age cliff, and Erickson added that Hill’s sideline blow-up late last season could prompt Miami to consider moving on. Without a clear bounce-back case in volume or efficiency, Erickson will let someone else pay the early-second-round price.

Derek Brown said he will not draft Tyreek Hill anywhere near a top-20 receiver slot in 2025. During Weeks 8-16 of 2024 with Tua Tagovailoa, Hill managed only WR24 fantasy points per game while ranking 39th in yards per route run and 34th in target share. Among 112 qualified wideouts he fell to 28th in separation and 48th in route-win rate (Fantasy Points Data). Brown added that off-field distractions, trade demands and the possibility Jaylen Waddle leapfrogs Hill in the Dolphins’ pecking order create a narrow path to upside. If Miami moves on or Hill loses another efficiency step, Brown believes drafters will be holding a rapidly depreciating asset.

Freedman called Tyreek Hill one of 2025’s biggest ADP discounts, projecting 135 targets (WR8) and WR7 fantasy output while drafters let him slip to pick 30.9 (WR13). Hill’s 2024 dip was tied to a season-long wrist injury and six games missed by Tua Tagovailoa, yet the speedster still owns a 9.6 yards-per-target mark in Miami (9.5 career). Freedman sees no evidence age 31 will sap his trademark explosiveness and believes a clean bill of health returns him to the elite tier he occupied just two seasons ago.

Theo Gremminger said he has climbed back in on Tyreek Hill at his current third-round ADP after originally planning a full fade. Hill’s 2024 target share fell roughly 10 percentage points and his fantasy points per game dipped by about 10 compared with his spectacular 2023, which—combined with age, a minor oblique issue and continued off-field distractions—initially scared Gremminger away. He also flagged potential volume competition from Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history and the Dolphins’ shaky offensive line. Nonetheless, every camp report has stressed that Hill’s straight-line speed remains elite, and Gremminger believes that if the veteran stays healthy he can still deliver a Keenan-Allen-style late-career season of 19-20 PPR points per game. At a Round-3 price he now views Hill as an "edge pick" who can swing season-long and best-ball leagues despite the volatility.

Sean Koerner labeled Tyreek Hill the biggest ADP faller, sliding from WR2 last preseason to WR14 now. Koerner said the drop is justified after Hill started to decline in his age-30 campaign and now enters an age-31 season, a cliff that has historically dinged wide-receiver efficiency. While acknowledging Hill could bounce back, Koerner cautioned drafters that they are no longer paying for prime-Tyreek production and should treat him as a volatility play rather than a foundation piece.

Chris Raybon said he wants to move Hill down from WR14 because the profile now carries Antonio Brown–style cliff risk: an aging speed receiver who openly questioned his desire to stay with Miami, saw yards drop nearly 50 % year-over-year, and admitted he only recently returned to speed-specific training. Raybon noted that elite receivers at this ADP should elevate backup quarterbacks, yet Hill failed to do so in 2024 and now relies on the health of the concussion-prone Tagovailoa. With the Jonnu Smith trade no longer artificially capping target share, drafters are still paying a premium for a player whose production declined even while playing all 17 games. Raybon advised fading Hill in season-long drafts unless his cost falls well below current consensus.

Sean Koerner warned that Hill owns the widest range of outcomes in the WR2 tier and should fall outside the top-15 before he considers drafting him. Hill turns 31 this season, firmly entering the post-peak phase for speed receivers, and last year’s wrist issue plus four missed Tua Tagovailoa games slashed his line from 119-1,799-8 to 81-959-5 despite playing an extra contest. Koerner acknowledged a bounce-back ceiling if both players stay healthy but stressed significant downside: Tagovailoa’s concussion history makes more missed games likely, and older speed merchants historically fall off quickly. In season-long drafts he is pricing in that risk by ranking Hill WR15 and will happily pass if the board forces him to decide inside that range.

Andrew Erickson flagged Tyreek Hill as one of 2025’s riskiest early picks. Hill limped to WR33 in points per game last season, topping 100 yards only twice while his yards per route run cratered to 1.75—less than half his 2023 number—amid a lingering wrist injury. Now 31, he sits on the wrong side of the age curve for speed-dependent receivers, and late-season sideline blow-ups suggest a frayed relationship with Tua Tagovailoa that the pair is "still working to rebuild." With questions around health, chemistry and declining efficiency, Erickson calls Hill a logical bust candidate at his current WR12 cost.

Mike Wright said Tyreek Hill has been sliding down his draft board for several weeks and advised passing on him in the late-second/early-third round range. Wright pointed to a string of bad offseason vibes: Hill missed time with an oblique injury, reportedly lacks full trust inside the locker room after last season, and will turn 32 during the year. Hill’s 2024 production already dipped to 13.0 PPR points per game despite playing all 17 games, and Wright noted many blamed it on a wrist issue that may no longer explain the decline. With age-related athleticism loss looming and cleaner profiles available at a similar cost—he specifically said he would take Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, and Marvin Harrison over Hill—Wright believes the downside far outweighs the upside at current ADP.

Hayden argued that if Miami’s ground game moves from "awful to average" – something he believes Devon Achan and rookie Jalen Wright can force by punishing light boxes – opposing defenses will no longer be able to sit two safeties on top of Tyreek Hill. The 2023 Dolphins simply couldn’t threaten the interior gaps; a middle-of-the-road rushing attack would squeeze fronts, expand throwing lanes and ‘drastically improve’ Hill’s numbers. Hayden’s ask is modest: just average run blocking and consistent explosive speed to keep linebackers honest. With those conditions, he is willing to take Hill a half-round earlier than consensus, betting on another YAC-heavy eruption season.

Hayden Winks labeled Tyreek Hill the quintessential boom-bust pick at the Round-3 turn, ranking him 26th overall and arguing that last year’s WR30 finish was far more anomaly than decline. Hill still looked electric on film—he torched defenders in Week 1—but Miami’s battered offensive line and Jonnu Smith siphoning underneath targets dragged his share to 20 percent from Week 8 on. Smith is gone, multiple O-line upgrades are in place, and Winks expects a target-projection bump both on shallow routes against the two-high shells Miami always faces and on deep shots, where Hill managed only three receptions of 30-plus yards in 2024 versus 23 across the prior two seasons. A better run game featuring Devon Achane and Jalen Wright should force defenses to honor the box, reopening vertical windows. Winks sees a credible path back to top-10 receiver status—and even a top-five ceiling—making Hill worth the volatility discount in both best-ball and season-long formats.

Hill is still fast and only one season removed from leading the league with 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns, but Hartitz highlighted the 31-year-old’s sharp 2024 tumble to WR30 in PPR points per game (WR24 during Tua’s healthy stretch). Given his age and the Dolphins’ uneven quarterback availability, Hartitz slotted Hill just inside his top-15 and warned drafters the risk profile no longer matches his 2023 dominance.

Freedman grabbed Tyreek Hill at 2.08 and called him one of 2025’s biggest ADP values. Hill was a top-three overall selection just last season, yet is sliding into the 20s on ESPN. Freedman preferred him over the running-back tier (Bucky Irving, Kyren Williams) and tight ends on the board, banking on Hill’s proven weekly ceiling in PPR formats.

Shawn Siegele argued Tyreek Hill is one of only three receivers capable of cracking 400 fantasy points and sees 2025 as his best opportunity yet. Hill produced back-to-back 340- and 380-point seasons in 2022–23 and owns two other 300-point campaigns, creating a massive tier gap behind him and Ja'Marr Chase. Siegele believes a “desperate, collapsing” Dolphins franchise will lean even harder on Hill, potentially boosting his snap rate. Although off-field and practice-habit concerns remain, Siegele maintained that Hill’s unparalleled per-route efficiency and Miami’s pass-heavy tendencies outweigh the character risk for fantasy drafters chasing true league-winning upside.

Adam Rank called Tyreek Hill a "potential steal" after seeing him slide down early draft boards. Rank acknowledged last year’s chemistry issues with Tua Tagovailoa but argued that even modest improvement would restore Hill’s top-five upside, making him a pick-two rounds cheaper than 2024 but with the same league-winning ceiling.

Magdziuk told drafters to smash Tyreek Hill at WR12 (Round 3). Hill’s 2024 slide—his first sub-1,000-yard campaign since 2019 and just 12.8 fantasy PPG—was tied to a season-long wrist injury and Tua Tagovailoa missing six games. Hill averaged 21.2 PPG when he received eight or more passes from Tagovailoa. After offseason surgeries removed screws from his wrist and with Miami’s quarterback expected to be healthy, Magdziuk sees no reason Hill can’t revert to his 2022-23 top-three form, calling him an outright steal.

Best Ball Guy said that snagging Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans right after Ja'Marr Chase is still worth the gamble even though both veterans are flirting with an age-related production cliff. His logic is simple: in Best Ball Mania the only week that really matters is the Week-17 final. If Hill and Evans are healthy for that game, the Dolphins and Buccaneers both have offenses explosive enough to feed them multiple touchdown opportunities, and a three-receiver core of Chase-Hill-Evans could single-handedly deliver the $3-million top prize. He admitted he does not want massive portfolio exposure to either player because of the cliff risk, but when they fall into the same draft he views the trio as a correlated, spike-week bet that can outscore any projection model.

Candayman called Tyreek Hill an easy click, noting that the speedster has ‘made amends with Tua’ and is set up for a blow-up campaign reminiscent of his record-setting year two seasons ago. The renewed chemistry with Tagovailoa plus Hill’s proven down-field role make him, in Candayman’s words, the kind of high-ceiling asset that wins top-heavy best-ball tournaments.

Hill cratered from 23.3 to just 12.8 PPG last season while his target share fell from 32% to 22% and YPRR plunged from 3.82 to 1.75. McFarland reminds readers that Year-9 receivers historically struggle to recapture elite form; since 2011 only three have rebounded to WR1 levels and several (Julio Jones, Hopkins, Nelson) never did. Drafters need perfect health from both Tua and Mike McDaniel’s motion-heavy scheme plus positive variance just to get a 16-PPG season. McFarland ranks Hill behind every elite dual-threat QB and warns he carries full bust risk at Round-3 cost.

Gene Clemons grabbed Tyreek Hill at the early-second turn and called 2025 a bounce-back season for the speedster. Clemons noted that he wanted four wideouts to open an Underdog best-ball draft and viewed Hill’s spike-week profile as perfect for the format. While detailed metrics were not discussed, Clemons’ confidence rested on Hill’s established target dominance in Mike McDaniel’s offense and the idea that last year’s dip in production was more blip than trend. The tout expects Hill to draw "major love" in drafts and sees him as a weekly slate-breaker who justifies WR1 pricing.

McFarland warned drafters that Hill’s profile screams decline risk. Hill’s fantasy output cratered from 23.3 to 12.8 PPG in 2024; target share dropped 10 percentage points, first-down share fell from 39% to 22%, and YPRR was slashed in half (3.82 → 1.75). Entering the typical age-cliff window (season 9), historical comps show mixed rebound odds and zero WR1 seasons after similar collapses. Even with perfect health from Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel’s motion/play-action scheme, McFarland projects a best-case 16.4 PPG (75% of prime production) and a real bust floor. He ranks Hill behind every elite dual-threat QB and advised passing at his Round-3 ADP.

Hayden Winks said the Dolphins’ cornerback room is "so disastrously terrible" that it becomes a fantasy cheat code. With Storm Duck and Jack Jones forced into major snaps and no healthy veterans left to sign, Miami profiles as an extreme pass-funnel: strong run front, awful coverage unit. Winks expects opponents to score on quick explosives, returning the ball to Tua in 95-degree South Florida and keeping the pace sky-high. In that environment Hill’s world-class speed should translate into frequent long touchdowns and double-digit target totals, so Winks will rank him "extremely aggressively" every week in season-long and best-ball formats.

Steve Palazzolo said Tyreek Hill is poised for a massive rebound in 2025 fantasy formats. Palazzolo pointed out that Hill is reportedly clocking 10.1-second 100-meter times this summer, evidence that he has not lost any of the world-class speed that makes Miami’s offense explosive. Hill played through multiple lower-body injuries last year and still limped off once a game, yet routinely returned two snaps later. With a clean bill of health and the Dolphins’ track-meet scheme built around him, Palazzolo expects Hill to return to the "totally uncoverable" form he flashed during Miami’s historically efficient first-half run in 2023. That combination of regained health, verified track speed, and a high-volume passing attack makes Hill an elite ceiling play in Season-Long, Best Ball, and DFS contests this year.

Nick Holz warned managers to steer clear of Tyreek Hill at his current top-15 ADP for 2025 drafts. Holz cited a perfect storm of age (Hill turns 31 during the season), mounting durability worries and a sharp drop-off in efficiency once defenses adjusted last year. From Weeks 8-16 with Tua Tagovailoa, Hill ranked just 24th in fantasy points per game, 39th in yards per route run and 34th in target share, while his 56.4 receiving yards per game were his lowest since his rookie year. Holz believes those splits point to a longer-term decline rather than a blip and notes DraftKings has already hung a modest 975.5-yard receiving prop, reinforcing the under. With similar names in the same range offering fewer red flags, Holz is fading Hill in all season-long formats and would lean under on that yardage line.

Jonathan Fuller framed Tyreek Hill as a value because 2024’s dip can be traced to a mid-season wrist injury (screws were removed this spring) and Tua Tagovailoa missing eight games, not irreversible decline at age 31. Hill just clocked a 10.10-second 100-meter dash in the offseason, reinforcing that the trademark speed remains. Fantasy Life’s median projection has him comfortably clearing 1,000 yards with several more touchdowns than last year, and Fuller notes his proven 1,700-yard ceiling if the Dolphins stay healthy. Managers willing to ignore the age narrative can grab a discounted top-five upside wideout.

Shawn Siegele said Tyreek Hill is an automatic click when he drifts to the late-second because the Dolphins star still possesses top-five overall upside. Hill finished like an early-first-rounder in both 2022 and 2023 and, per Siegele’s research, is more involved near the goal line than most realize, giving him bonus short-TD equity to pair with his trademark long scores. With Jonnu Smith no longer siphoning red-zone looks and Mike McDaniel’s scheme continuing to manufacture deep shots, Siegele expects Hill to rack up both long and short touchdowns. Any time Hill lasts past pick 20 he is a value in FFPC best-ball rooms.

Whalen placed Tyreek Hill at the bottom of Tier 3, labeling him the hardest player to value. While Hill owns obvious top-five upside—no one else in the tier can match it—Whalen flagged several red lights: age-related decline, nagging injuries last season, and the fact that Tua Tagovailoa is "maybe the most injury-prone quarterback in the NFL." Those factors have Whalen mostly fading Hill despite acknowledging the ceiling.

Best Ball Guy admitted he normally fades Dolphins stacks in season-long but pivots to Tyreek Hill in Underdog’s Eliminator because Week 1 is a must-advance and Indy provides the perfect springboard. The Colts surrendered the league’s highest explosive-pass rate (10% of attempts) in 2023 and rank 30th in man-coverage success, the exact looks Hill destroys. With Miami’s bye conveniently falling in Week 12, drafters get a clean run of early games before any sit-outs. BBG framed the pick as a hedge against his Christian McCaffrey exposure: if his 1.01 fails, Hill’s nuclear Week 1 ceiling can still keep the roster alive.

Hayden Winks moved Tyreek Hill ahead of Tee Higgins at the 2-3 turn, laying out a clear rebound thesis. He reminded listeners that Hill’s target share cratered to 20 % from Weeks 8-16 last year because Jonnu Smith inexplicably became the focal point, but Smith has since been traded. Hill played through a wrist injury yet is evidently healthy—Winks cited the viral 10.1-second 100-meter video as proof the speed is still ridiculous. Miami’s offensive line has been upgraded, Tua is tracking for a fully healthy camp, and Mike McDaniel should scrap the back-shoulder go-ball experiment and return to deep-crossers that produced 3.2-plus yards per route run in 2021-22. With the Dolphins offense projecting closer to its 3rd-in-points 2023 version than last season’s 22nd-place flop, Winks is willing to “roll the dice that Tyreek is still Tyreek for at least one more year,” making him his preferred pick over Higgins in Best Ball drafts.

Nick Whalen acknowledged Tyreek Hill’s undeniable top-five WR ceiling but cautions drafters that he is the quintessential boom-or-bust pick in 2025. Hill turns 31, relies on elite speed, had wrist surgery, and comes tied to an injury-prone quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa. While Hill piled up back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons under Mike McDaniel, Whalen noted his production lagged even after Tua returned last year, raising concern that the league may have adjusted to Miami’s scheme. Given off-field baggage and quarterback durability worries, Whalen is personally avoiding Hill in the late-second/early-third despite acknowledging the massive upside if both stars stay healthy all 17 games.

Best Ball Guy is scooping Tyreek Hill whenever he reaches Round 3, arguing the slide is purely injury-headline driven. He believes a single camp report stating Hill is healthy will shove the All-Pro wideout back into the early-2nd or even late-1st, creating free closing-line value for drafters who act now. Given Hill’s proven ceiling and the uncertainty in other receiver situations, he views the current price as one of the easiest bets on talent in Best Ball Mania.

Jakob Sanderson told listeners the room is chasing a mirage as Tyreek Hill climbs into the late-second round. Hill’s efficiency already cratered to roughly 2.1 yards per route (down nearly a full yard and barely above rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and he turns 31 during the fantasy playoffs— historically the tipping point for an irreversible wide-receiver cliff. Sanderson piled on Miami’s protection woes: Pro Football Focus ranks the Dolphins 25th after Terron Armstead’s retirement pushed likely bust Patrick Paul into the blind-side role and forced two brand-new interior starters, James Daniels and rookie Jonah Savaginia, into action. A bottom-ten line paired with Tua Tagovailoa’s well-documented concussion history (and Zach Wilson as the fallback) raises the odds Miami leans on ultra-quick throws to backs and tight ends rather than down-field digs to Hill. With the ecosystem this fragile, Sanderson is smashing Rashee Rice, Trey McBride, Tee Higgins and even Josh Jacobs over Hill at similar ADPs and expects the market to correct once drafters stop “catching a falling knife.”

Kerrane thinks the market has gone overboard after Tyreek Hill won a 100-meter race in 10.35 seconds, pushing his ADP up 16.5%. He argued last year’s efficiency dip was more about Miami’s offensive collapse—Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion absences and the league’s worst pass-protection unit—than Hill suddenly being washed. That said, Hill turns 31 during the fantasy playoffs and a real age cliff "could hit at any point." Kerrane added that Tua remains one big hit away from missing the season, leaving Hill reliant on backup quarterbacks behind a porous line. Given those downside scenarios, Kerrane believes paying a top-five overall price because "Tyreek is still fast" is a poor risk-reward bet in Best Ball drafts.

Jim Coventry urged drafters to fade Tyreek Hill at his current WR15 cost, saying the soon-to-be 31-year-old showed real decline in 2024. Hill’s 81-959-4 receiving line was his worst since his rookie year, and he posted only 38th-percentile yards-after-catch despite routinely sitting in the 90th percentile throughout his prime. Coventry blamed age, a lingering wrist injury, and defensive game plans that choked off Tua Tagovailoa’s preferred short/intermediate windows. Hill exceeded 83 yards just three times while falling below 40 yards in eight different games. With Hill publicly unhappy in Miami and the Dolphins projected to struggle, Coventry would not consider him until after WR20.

Jason Moore flipped from "undraftable" to bullish on Tyreek Hill after Jonnu Smith’s departure vacated 105 short-area targets. Moore moved Hill up to WR10–14 in his rankings, predicting a rebound to a 28 % target share on Tua Tagovailoa’s 67 % completion rate. Hill finished WR19 last year despite a lingering wrist injury and a career-low red-zone target rate; Moore expects both metrics to regress positively. With Miami’s offense poised to funnel lay-ups back to Hill, he sees 100-plus receptions and 1,400 yards as a realistic median outcome, advising drafters to pounce if Hill slips into the early third round.

Jagger May recommended letting someone else pay the first-round premium for Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins offense collapses when Tua Tagovailoa misses time, and Miami’s offensive line remains a glaring weakness they failed to address meaningfully this offseason. Hill is entering his age-30 season and has publicly discussed post-football media opportunities, raising commitment concerns. May argues the gap between Hill and receivers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is far narrower than their ADPs suggest, especially when Hill’s floor in a shaky offense is factored in. Older speed receivers fall off quickly, so May is out at cost.

Bellofatto called the 975.5 receiving-yard prop for Tyreek Hill a "buy-the-dip" opportunity. Hill posted 1,799 yards last season and has never failed to clear 960, even in his statistical low point. Claudia argued the number bakes in too much Tua-injury discount. Even if Zach Wilson—or eventual rookie Quinn Ewers—takes snaps, Hill’s yards-after-catch ability and heavy target share should still push him past 1,000. She prefers this prop to betting Tua’s passing total because Hill can get there regardless of quarterback play.

Steve Palazzolo warned that Tyreek Hill no longer looked like the league’s scariest deep threat in 2023 and therefore carries far more downside than his first-round redraft or high-priced best-ball ADP implies. Palazzolo said Hill "didn't look the same physically" and emphasized that so much of Hill’s production has always hinged on being the single most explosive player on the field. If that raw speed and suddenness have slipped even five percent, Hill’s entire fantasy profile changes because he cannot simply transition to a high-volume underneath role the way bigger framed receivers can. While acknowledging that a fully healthy Hill could still catch 150 balls from the slot, Palazzolo framed that scenario as a low-probability outcome and advised managers to treat Hill as a boom-or-bust proposition rather than a bankable WR1 cornerstone.

Rich Cooling highlighted Tyreek Hill as a rare opportunity to add elite production at a non-elite Dynasty price. Rookie fever has pushed Hill’s cost down to the point that some managers are willing to move him for a single future first plus a sweetener, despite the fact he just posted 1,799 yards and 12 TDs while leading the league in yards per route run (3.82). Cooling emphasized that nothing in Hill’s underlying profile suggests imminent decline—he is top-three in team target share (31%) and air-yard share (39%), and the Dolphins ranked first in neutral-situation pass EPA. He cautioned that this discount will evaporate once redraft season arrives and everyone realizes Hill is still a top-3 wideout in weekly rankings. Contenders should pounce now, locking in a 20-point-per-game WR1 without sacrificing a 2027 first-rounder.

Andy Holloway said snagging Tyreek Hill in the fourth round of 2025 drafts is "delicious bait." Holloway pointed to fresh camp video that showed Hill exploding off the line next to Jaylen Waddle and emphasized newly published veteran-open-rate data that still has Hill at the very top of the league. He argued Hill’s 2024 downturn was more about Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion issues, Mike McDaniel’s conservative in-season adjustments and a leaky Miami offensive line—not physical decline from the soon-to-be 31-year-old. With McDaniel committed to quicker releases in 2025, Holloway believes Hill remains one of the last receivers on the board who can realistically finish inside the overall WR1 tier, making him an auto-click any time he slips past Round 3 in season-long or best-ball formats.

Jason Moore argued that Tyreek Hill is still an undervalued first-round pick because drafters are baking in 2024’s muted deep-passing environment as the new normal. Moore noted that despite Miami dialling back vertical shots, Hill still posted 119 catches and 1,672 yards on a league-leading 31 % target share. He believes Miami’s offense is a prime candidate for positive regression toward its 2022 deep-ball rate—when Hill averaged 12.5 yards per target and finished as the unquestioned WR1 overall—citing improved offensive-line health and defensive coordinators inevitably committing more resources to the box after Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane became underneath focal points. Moore contends that if Mike McDaniel unlocks even a modest uptick in down-field attempts, Hill’s ceiling vaults back into 2,000-yard territory while his current ADP sits closer to WR5. He urged season-long and best-ball gamers to treat Hill as a potential league-winner who is not being drafted anywhere near his true ceiling.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound is backing off Tyreek Hill for now after news surfaced he will have screws removed from his wrist, a development that has already knocked Hill’s ADP down 11 percent. Pat expects the price to rebound once camp videos show Hill at full speed, but until then he prefers to use early-first capital on healthier elites. He warned that casual drafters returning in August will instinctively click Hill earlier, so the current discount window may slam shut quickly; in the meantime Pat is reallocating those shares to Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.