Pat Fitzmaurice cautioned against overdrafting Zay Flowers, placing him five WR spots below ECR. Baltimore ran on 52.5 percent of snaps last season—second only to Philadelphia—and that number may stay high with Derrick Henry joining Lamar Jackson. Flowers endured eight games with six or fewer targets and eight under 40 yards. Fitzmaurice thinks the Ravens’ run-heavy DNA will keep Flowers’ week-to-week output maddeningly inconsistent.

Jim Coventry argued that Zay Flowers remains overrated because Baltimore’s retooled pistol offense no longer funnels targets to short-area routes. Through Week 10 of 2024 Flowers topped 18.5 PPR points five times, but when the Ravens shifted to Lamar Jackson in shotgun with Derrick Henry at his hip, defenses crashed the run and left deep zones open. As a result the passing game funneled to downfield options like Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman while Flowers surpassed 12 PPR points only once after Week 10. Coventry expects that run-heavy, lead-protecting script to continue in 2025, limiting overall pass volume. With Jackson and Henry soaking up red-zone touches and defenses daring Baltimore to throw long, Flowers’ short-and-intermediate skill set becomes an afterthought. Coventry sees little path for Flowers to pay off even his discounted ADP.

Larry Hartstein played Zay Flowers under 4.5 receiving touchdowns. Flowers saw only seven red-zone targets last season—fifth on the Ravens behind both tight ends plus Rashod Bateman and Justice Hill. Baltimore added DeAndre Hopkins, whose primary fantasy value should come near the goal line, while Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson remain elite rushing finishers. The crowded red-zone pecking order and run-first tendencies make five receiving TDs an uphill climb for Flowers.

Chris Allen called Zay Flowers a mid-round value compared to Xavier Worthy, noting that public perception leans toward Worthy because of Kansas City’s larger pass volume and the looming Rashee Rice suspension. Allen countered with hard usage data: from Weeks 7-17 Flowers commanded a 25.7% target share, 34.5% air-yard share, and 2.38 yards per route run, dwarfing Worthy’s 18.9%, 25.1%, and 1.24 marks. Given the negligible 1.3 PPR-points-per-game gap between Worthy and Flowers in projections, Allen urged drafters to grab Flowers at the slight discount and, when possible, pair him with another tier-wideout to turn perceived risk into weekly upside.

Mike Wright dismissed the Lamar Jackson–Zay Flowers combo as a low-upside stack, explaining that correlation is king and touchdowns are the currency. Jackson threw “40-plus scores” last season, yet Flowers converted only four—three of them clustered in just as many games. That left most Lamar spike weeks unpaired with meaningful receiver production (one TD game still netted WR31). Wright argued that, in best-ball or DFS tournaments, managers need touchdown volatility and cited Mark Andrews—or even Rashod Bateman—as superior stacking partners. Until Flowers shows red-zone growth, Wright sees the pairing as a ceiling cap rather than a slate-breaker.

Chris Raybon is pouncing on Zay Flowers wherever he slides out of the top-30 wide-receiver tier. Flowers logged a 90-plus-percent route rate as a sophomore and remains Lamar Jackson’s No. 1 target after the Ravens shifted Mark Andrews into more of a situational role. Raybon brushed off Baltimore’s public statements about "not needing" Flowers to rack up yardage, pointing instead to two straight productive seasons in run-heavy systems. He added that an aging Derrick Henry raises the odds Baltimore leans even further into Jackson’s arm if Henry misses any time. With no role change and elite usage metrics still intact, Raybon views current ADP slippage as noise and called Flowers a priority value pick.

Jim Coventry warned that Zay Flowers’ WR28 cost ignores Baltimore’s post-Week 9 identity change. Flowers posted five 18.5-plus PPR outings in the first nine games, but once Lamar Jackson operated almost exclusively from shotgun with Derrick Henry beside him, the Ravens became run-centric. From Week 10 on Flowers topped 12 PPR points only once as Jackson pushed the ball downfield to Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews when defenses stacked the box. Coventry noted that Flowers’ 85th-percentile yards-after-catch ability cannot overcome a dramatic target squeeze and expects the same script in 2025, making Flowers a trap pick.

Jason Moore used his year-two ADP study to frame Zay Flowers as a better value than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Moore’s research shows that second-year breakouts who see a big ADP spike only meet expectation about 50 % of the time. Flowers also broke into the top-24 last season, but his seventh-round cost has not risen the way JSN’s has. That discount plus Baltimore’s top-10 neutral-pass-rate under Todd Monken makes Flowers the “safer bet to return value,” even if Moore doubts he will leap into the overall WR15 range.

Jake Ciely urged drafters to stop chasing Zay Flowers at his mid-round price. Flowers finished WR35 in points per game last season even though Lamar Jackson threw 41 touchdown passes. Ciely noted that no Baltimore wideout has cracked the top-24 since Marquise Brown in 2021 because the Ravens’ run-centric attack spreads targets and prioritizes tight ends in the red zone. Given that usage profile, Ciely dropped Flowers to 60th overall and prefers options like Jaylen Waddle in that tier.

Pat Kerrane called Zay Flowers a breakout pick at his current fifth-round cost. Kerrane reviewed historical breakout profiles and noted that the biggest leaps come when a player’s routes per game jump. Flowers is positioned for exactly that two-fold boost: Baltimore almost certainly throws more than last season’s league-low rate, and Flowers’ route participation should climb in year two. Kerrane added that Jackson’s touchdown total may regress slightly, but those scores are likely to concentrate among the top pass catchers, giving Flowers plenty of spike-week potential while stacking cleanly with Lamar Jackson.

Pat Kerrane wrote up Flowers in his breakout profiles and explained that true eruptions hinge on two things: more routes and more team dropbacks. Baltimore threw the ball so infrequently last season that simply regressing to their 2023 passing volume under Todd Munkin would give Flowers a sizable target boost. Combine that with his near-every-down route participation and Kerrane believes Flowers’ current 5th-round ADP still undersells his upside. Even if Lamar Jackson’s touchdown rate dips, the offense is potent enough for scores to funnel to its top weapons, keeping Flowers’ ceiling very much in play.

Pat Kerrane called the Lamar Jackson–Zay Flowers–Mark Andrews stack a league-winner because it now costs several rounds less than in 2024. Flowers routinely lasts to the 5th instead of the 4th, Andrews has slid from the 4/5 turn to the 8th–9th, and Isaiah Likely’s preseason injury only boosts Andrews’ target share. Kerrane noted that from a front-half draft slot drafters can grab Jackson at 3.04, Flowers in the 5th, and still land Andrews two rounds later, with late darts like Rashod Bateman or ultra-cheap Likely available for extra correlation. He thinks it’s the easiest way to capture the Ravens’ entire touchdown pie at a discount.

Strachan called Zay Flowers a textbook positive-regression play. Flowers scored only four TDs on seven end-zone targets last year despite Lamar Jackson’s trust. Strachan expects that inefficiency to correct and lauded Flowers’ full practice participation after a minor camp issue, making him a Round-5 priority.

Although he placed Zay Flowers in Tier-4, Adam Rank admitted he "doesn't know how he feels about it," pointing out that Flowers has failed to crack the top-30 wide receivers in fantasy points per game in either of his first two seasons. With Baltimore still run-centric, Rank warned drafters not to chase Flowers at a price tag that assumes a breakout that has yet to materialize.

Flowers finished 2024 with 1,059 yards, five 100-yard outings and still only WR25 overall (WR36 per game). Kelley argued that paying WR25, 53.8 ADP prices for a player who already hit that mark—inside a run-first Todd Monken offense now featuring Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews and newly signed DeAndre Hopkins—is betting on an unlikely second leap. He called it drafting the absolute ceiling.

Candayman pointed out that Zay Flowers has slid roughly 10 spots since Underdog’s Big Board closed, moving from an early-fourth-round price to the middle of the fifth. Nothing about his role has changed, but he is no longer at the very front of a flat WR tier, turning him into what Candayman called an “easy click” at current cost. The cheaper tag not only juices standalone value but also syncs perfectly with Lamar Jackson’s third-round ADP, letting drafters grab one of the league’s most correlated QB-WR duos without paying last month’s premium.

Best Ball Guy thinks drafters are sleeping on Zay Flowers. With Isaiah Likely undergoing foot surgery, Baltimore loses a significant middle-of-field target earner, clearing even more weekly volume for Flowers in what he calls a "very good offense." The tout expects Flowers to see a usage bump that is not yet reflected in his ADP and likes him as a spike-week WR2/3 in best-ball builds.

Valenzuela dropped Zay Flowers to WR29, questioning his ceiling in Baltimore’s extremely run-centric scheme. Flowers scored just four touchdowns last season even though Lamar Jackson threw 41 TD passes, and the Ravens passed at the second-lowest rate per game. Flowers has delivered back-to-back WR3 finishes (12.8 and 12.3 PPG) but Valenzuela prefers receivers in the same draft range who have cleaner paths to volume and touchdown upside, so she is largely fading him at current ADP.

Flowers is one of McFarland’s favorite WR3 targets. Despite Baltimore’s run-heavy DNA (-4% drop-back over expectation), Flowers upped his target share to 27%, air-yards share to 30% and YPRR to 2.25 in 2024, producing 13.4 PPG in his 15 healthy contests. In 195 routes with both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely on the field he still commanded 31% of targets, indicating he can coexist with the tight-end duo. Year-3 breakout comps such as Chris Godwin and Deebo Samuel posted WR2 seasons 60% of the time. McFarland sees similar upside for Flowers at a Round-7 price.

Best Ball Guy said drafters should mentally bump Zay Flowers up their wide-receiver tiers after tight end Isaiah Likely was carted off with a foot/ankle injury that is expected to cost him "a couple to a few weeks." He pointed out that soft-tissue and lower-leg issues often linger, and if Likely’s recovery drags into the season the Ravens will have to lean even harder on their wide-out group opposite Mark Andrews. That scenario would funnel extra routes, short-area targets, and possible red-zone looks to Flowers, making him a more attractive pick in current best-ball drafts.

Kendall Valenzuela said she’s clicking Zay Flowers most often in the WR29–31 range. Flowers has delivered back-to-back WR3 seasons of 12.8 and 12.3 fantasy points per game despite Baltimore finishing third-from-last in dropbacks in 2024. She referenced Dwain McFarland’s ceiling-floor model that pegs Flowers for an 18.5-point ceiling (a WR1 pace) in his third campaign. Valenzuela views that upside as too good to pass up at his current discount even in a run-heavy scheme.

Best Ball Guy argued that the 4-5 turn duo of Zay Flowers and George Pickens will out-score early-round names like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Tee Higgins once price is factored in. His angle is strictly game-theoretic: at current ADPs you can lock up two ascending second-year talents with every-down roles while still grabbing elite running backs or quarterbacks in the first three rounds. That flexibility, he said, creates more "paths to first" in small-field contests than sinking premium capital into Harrison, whose rookie-year range of outcomes is wider and already baked into an inflated cost.

Erik Beimfohr said Zay Flowers is one of the easiest fifth-round clicks on the board because Baltimore is actively building its pass game around him. Beimfohr dismissed worries about Flowers’ 5-foot-9 frame by pointing to Deontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin as examples of "smaller" receivers who eventually posted double-digit touchdown seasons once volume caught up with talent. He cited John Harbaugh’s pre-camp quote that the offense must "get the ball to Zay Flowers more" and called Flowers the Ravens’ best pass-game player outside of Lamar Jackson. If Baltimore follows through, Beimfohr thinks a 12-TD breakout is firmly in play thanks to Flowers’ first-read chemistry with an MVP-caliber quarterback. The floor is simply a seventh-round value loss (“small miss”), but the ceiling is a league-winning WR2 attached to a top-five offense (“big win”).

Pat Kerrane said Zay Flowers is the true "skeleton key" to Ravens stacks in 2025 drafts. Kerrane loves grabbing Lamar Jackson in the third, then pushing Flowers to the fifth where his 2.25 yards per route run and clear WR1 role make him a smash. The volume knock is baked into price, but Kerrane outlined several ways it could spike: a more pass-centric Todd Monken year-two offense, defensive injuries forcing shootouts, or Derrick Henry missing time and removing Baltimore’s planned run-heavy tilt. If any of those happen, Flowers’ first-read chemistry with an MVP quarterback could yield league-winning production, especially because stacking costs remain cheap—Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and even DeAndre Hopkins are all affordable follow-ups. Kerrane concluded that the fifth round is too late for a first-round talent tied to this ceiling and is upping his exposure accordingly.

Erik Beimfohr said Zay Flowers is the quintessential “small miss, big win” target in Best Ball. Although Flowers is not the prototypical alpha red-zone body, Beimfohr argued that great receivers still stumble into double-digit touchdowns—citing Deontae Johnson’s and Terry McLaurin’s spike seasons—as long as they play with an elite quarterback. John Harbaugh openly admitted the offense has to feed Flowers, calling him their best pass-game weapon outside Lamar Jackson. That mandate plus Flowers’ 2.25 YPRR as a rookie gives him a realistic 140-target, 12-TD ceiling, yet his ADP sits in the mid-fifth round. Beimfohr framed the downside as merely wishing you’d taken him in the seventh, while the upside is a league-winning Ravens stack that buries the field if Todd Monken leans pass-heavy.

Pat Kerrane said Zay Flowers is the "skeleton key" to a high-upside Ravens stack because his current fifth-round ADP lets drafters take Lamar Jackson in the third, grab Flowers two rounds later and still circle back for Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely at palatable prices. Kerrane pointed out that Flowers posted 2.25 yards per route run in Year 2 and is already Baltimore’s clear No. 1 wideout. If the Ravens lean into the pass—whether because Derrick Henry finally shows age, defensive injuries force shoot-outs, or Todd Monken simply steps on the gas—Flowers has a path to a 140-target season. Kerrane argued that drafters must be "absolutely sure" the volume never spikes, because if it does, a fifth-round Flowers attached to an MVP-caliber quarterback will bury the field. He’s prioritizing Lamar/Flowers starts and then hammering rookies like RJ Harvey or TreVeyon Henderson in the sixth to round out the build.

Kerrane preferred Zay Flowers over Alvin Kamara in the mid-fifth, calling the third-year Raven both safer and higher-ceiling. Flowers owns a first-round pedigree, has been efficient in each of his first two seasons, and projects as the clear No. 1 target in Baltimore. By contrast, Kamara is “definitely dust as a runner” and could be totally washed. In wide-receiver-heavy tournament rooms, Kerrane wants the proven young alpha with a condensed target tree instead of betting on an aging RB who now needs pass-game work to matter.

Nick Whalen argued Zay Flowers’ price (pick 45-55) doesn’t match his week-to-week output. Flowers finished WR25 last year yet posted five games under 6 PPR points and ranked WR36 on a per-game basis. Even with Lamar Jackson tossing a career-best 41 TDs, Flowers scored only four and remained a non-factor inside the 20. Whalen sees no path to a red-zone role while Mark Andrews and the RBs are healthy, making Flowers a volatile FLEX rather than a locked-in WR2. He is out at current ADP.

Tom Strachan recommended the OVER on Zay Flowers’ 5.5 touchdown projection, citing several indicators of looming positive regression. Flowers has commanded the Ravens’ passing attack: a 30 % first-read target share and back-to-back 100-target seasons — a feat only 15 other wideouts have matched. Yet he scored just four TDs last year despite seven end-zone targets, converting only two of them; Strachan flagged that as an obvious outlier. Projections guru Mike Clay pencils Flowers in for seven TDs, and Baltimore returns virtually the same offense that led the NFL in scoring last season. With the Ravens unlikely to throttle down and no competition above a 16 % first-read share, Strachan expects Flowers to land comfortably above the 5.5 benchmark.

Hayden Winks said he can’t click Zay Flowers anywhere he does not already have Lamar Jackson. In Underdog’s half-PPR format, Winks argued Flowers’ profile is ‘at best fine’—a 22 % target-share slot weapon who averaged just 1.69 yards per route run and scored three times all season. Without the correlated quarterback ceiling to goose double-stack weeks, a non-Lamar Flowers pick requires him to outscore projected Round-5 running backs such as Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon and Kenneth Walker—backs Winks considers some of the best points-over-ADP values on the entire board. His bottom line: in half-PPR you need touchdowns and 30-point quarterback explosions to unlock wide-receiver flex upside; Flowers supplies neither unless he is tethered to Jackson, so Winks is passing at cost in non-Ravens builds.

Tyler Emo Cowboy argued that drafters should be buying Zay Flowers right now because the market is sleeping on a classic third-year leap. He pointed out that Flowers generated the exact same number of deep-ball opportunities as Rashod Bateman last season but simply ran worse on the outcomes, masking how often Todd Monken dialed up vertical looks for him. Emo Cowboy added that Baltimore’s offense is expected to remain top-10 in efficiency, and Flowers has already demonstrated the ability to win downfield and after the catch. With no major target competition beyond an aging Mark Andrews, he believes Flowers’ ADP will climb multiple rounds once summer beat writers start trumpeting the "Year-Three Breakout" narrative. He called Flowers a slam-dunk upside pick in Best Ball Mania drafts while the room still prefers safer veterans in the same range.

Jim Coventry advised fading Zay Flowers at his WR28 price because the Ravens rediscovered their run-first identity down the stretch. Flowers logged 5 games of 18.5+ PPR points in Weeks 1-9, but after Baltimore leaned on Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson out of shotgun, he produced only one 12-point effort from Week 10 on. With a limited pass volume that must be divided among Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman, Coventry doubts Flowers can provide reliable fantasy output in 2025.

Andy Holloway said he’s "happy to flex Flowers all year long" at the current WR24, Round-5 price tag. Flowers already commanded a 25% target share as a rookie and played every game—his only clunker was a one-target outing versus Tampa Bay. Holloway argued that even a modest two-percentage-point bump in target share, easily attainable in Year 2, would make Flowers a weekly WR2 given Lamar Jackson’s efficiency. With no true target hog behind him and Baltimore’s early schedule featuring shootouts against Buffalo, Detroit and Kansas City, Holloway believes Flowers offers both a safe floor and breakout ceiling at cost.

Nick Whalen thinks Zay Flowers is overpriced at WR27 because his 2024 profile offered more floor than ceiling. Flowers finished as the WR25 overall but was WR36 on a per-game basis, turning in five games below six PPR points and only four true ‘splash’ weeks. Despite Lamar Jackson’s 41-TD career year, Flowers scored just four times and saw only seven red-zone targets—fewer than Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, or Rashod Bateman. With Derrick Henry and Jackson likely soaking up goal-line touches and Baltimore maintaining an egalitarian passing attack, Whalen expects regression in total passing TDs and believes Flowers’ limited scoring opportunities make it hard to pay current ADP.

Pat Kerrane gave a "mini shout-out" to Zay Flowers, arguing his fifth-round price undersells legitimate WR1 potential. Flowers followed a 1.72 YPRR rookie season with 2.25 last year and now enters year three with only an aging Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman standing between him and a 28 % target share. Kerrane acknowledged Baltimore’s run-heavy DNA but noted Lamar Jackson’s career-best 8.0 yards per attempt in Todd Monken’s system and the Ravens’ top-five schedule-adjusted pass-EPA efficiency, calling it "good enough" to fuel a Flowers blow-up. He also highlighted Flowers’ elite first-read share (33 % in Weeks 12-18) and the possibility Andrews cedes snaps to blocker Darnell Washington, freeing even more middle-of-field volume. While Kerrane sees Flowers’ most likely 2025 ADP in the late-second/early-third, he believes there is a plausible path to a Stefon Diggs-style leap if Baltimore’s defense regresses and Monken leans into tempo. That upside makes Flowers a priority in the Round-5 flat tier, especially on Lamar stacks where he functions as a discounted alpha.

Davis Mattek said he is ranking Zay Flowers noticeably below ADP and treating him as a boom-bust WR4 you only sprinkle when stacking Lamar Jackson teams. Mattek’s main gripe is the weekly box-score pain: Flowers ripped off plenty of SportsCenter moments last year, yet finished with just four touchdowns and a string of 4-for-64 type lines that never cracked best-ball starting lineups. Mattek even noted Willie Sneed owns the same single-season TD high (four) in this Ravens offense, underscoring how difficult it is for Baltimore wideouts to deliver big scoring seasons in a low-volume, run-centric scheme. While a "miracle" 10-TD outlier is possible on any Jackson-led team, Mattek believes Flowers’ realistic range of outcomes is more like 1,000 yards and four scores—hardly worth his current sticker price. He is shifting exposure toward cheaper upside swing wideouts and only clicking Flowers when he drifts a full round past ADP.