Josh Norris warned that Bijan Robinson’s overall RB3 ADP bakes in a ceiling that may be unattainable with Atlanta sitting 22nd in implied scoring. Running backs on bottom-third offenses rarely reach league-winning status unless they post elite receiving numbers, and Norris is unconvinced that the new coaching staff and unchanged offensive line can generate enough touchdowns. Without a proven quarterback upgrade, Robinson likely needs 80-plus catches to justify his price—a bet Norris is avoiding in early drafts.

Sam Monson highlighted third-round pick Xavier Watts as a consequential selection because Atlanta released Justin Simmons, leaving a starting safety job wide open. Monson noted that Watts’ ball-hawking profile at Notre Dame and the Falcons’ need for range on the back end give him a realistic path to the Week 1 lineup. That immediate playing-time upside makes Watts a low-cost dynasty stash and a potential early-season punt option in IDP or DFS slates if camp reports confirm he is running with the starters.

Steve Palazzolo said the Falcons defense could make a massive year-to-year jump because of the sheer volume of premium draft capital they have poured into their front four. Atlanta now has five defensive linemen drafted in the top four rounds over the last two years—headlined by 2024 first-rounders Jalen Walker and James Pierce plus three Day-2 picks from 2023. Palazzolo argued that if even three of those five youngsters develop, Raheem Morris will suddenly have a legitimate pass-rush rotation instead of last season’s bottom-five unit. With the offense returning almost completely intact, he believes the Falcons DST is a worthwhile late-round stash in season-long leagues and that Atlanta’s divisional futures carry sneaky value for bettors banking on defensive improvement.

Jim Coventry said Drake London is a discounted early-round pick who could realistically finish as the overall WR4. Coventry pointed to London’s 2024 breakout (100 catches, 1,271 yards, 9 TDs) and emphasized how hot he finished the year: across the final six games he averaged 11.3 targets and 94 yards, and in the three contests started by Michael Penix Jr. those numbers ballooned to 13 targets, 7 receptions and 117 yards per game. With that chemistry only expected to strengthen, Coventry believes London’s current ADP of WR9 (late Round 1 / early Round 2) still underrates his ceiling.

Kevin Szafraniec explained why he’s mixing in elite quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen when the draft hits a positional lull. Because neither QB requires early-round teammates, drafters can hammer best-player-available early and still build stacks cheaply on the back end—Flowers if he falls, Rashod Bateman, both Ravens tight ends for Lamar; Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid for Allen. That setup preserves roster spots, avoids forced reaches, and locks in 25-plus point weekly ceilings at a moment in the draft where the skill-position pool gets flat.

Tyler Knaeble hammered Ray-Ray McCloud as his favorite round-18 dart, noting the veteran quietly posted 700 yards last season and now pairs with big-armed rookie Michael Penix, a stylistic upgrade over Kirk Cousins for vertical routes. Knaeble projected McCloud to match last year’s yardage while tacking on “five touchdowns,” arguing there is “not that big of a difference” between McCloud and Rashid Shaheed—except Shaheed costs ten rounds earlier. The early bye week is “no big deal” in Eliminator, and because hardly anyone drafts McCloud, Knaeble believes drafters lock in unique construction and closing-line value by clicking him every time in the final round.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told viewers to lean into Atlanta stacks because the Falcons draw a cupcake playoff run: Week 15 at Tampa Bay, Week 16 at Arizona, and Week 17 home in their own dome against the Rams. Two dome games plus three defenses that all ranked bottom-half in explosive-pass rate allowed last season sets up a track-meet environment for Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and whoever wins the quarterback job. Pat thinks the weather-proof schedule and likely shoot-out in Glendale give Atlanta pieces underrated Week 17 winning equity in Best Ball Mania.

Davis Mattek reminded listeners that you cannot be bullish on rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. without simultaneously buying into Drake London. Mattek said Penix’s spike weeks will almost certainly funnel through London, who already owns a 26-percent target share and saw his route participation jump to 97 percent after Arthur Smith was fired. With new OC Zac Robinson expected to run a much heavier three-wide system and Penix pushing the ball downfield (10.4 collegiate aDOT), Mattek argued London profiles as the clear alpha in an offense that could leap from bottom-two in pass rate over expectation to league-average. In large-field best-ball tournaments, rostering Penix without London forfeits a realistic 30-plus-point correlated ceiling and forces you to pray for Penix rushing touchdowns instead of embracing the far likelier passing explosions.

Warren Sharp highlighted Keon Coleman as his favorite way to get cheap exposure to Buffalo’s passing game. With Stefon Diggs now a Patriot and only rumors linking the Bills to veterans like Terry McLaurin, Sharp sees an open runway for Coleman to seize an outside role immediately. The rookie’s current ADP places him in the WR60 range, a price Sharp considers a steal given Josh Allen’s league-leading deep-ball aggressiveness and the lack of established target competition beyond Dalton Kincaid. Sharp conceded Coleman will be volatile week-to-week—he called him a "wide-receiver-five boomer-bust type"—but noted that the same volatility won Gabe Davis managers several DFS and best-ball tournaments in past seasons. In shallow season-long leagues Coleman is a late bench stash; in best ball he’s a priority pick any time he slips past Round 13.

Warren Sharp labeled James Cook a fade at his mid-third-round price, stressing that the Bills back led the entire league in touchdowns over expectation in 2024 while actually seeing fewer total touches than the year before. Buffalo’s commitment to a multi-back rotation—Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis are expected to siphon short-yardage work—caps Cook’s ceiling, especially since he has yet to develop into the high-volume receiver many projected out of Georgia. Sharp believes the Bills’ scheme volatility mirrors Baltimore’s but without a Derrick Henry-type goal-line hammer, meaning Cook’s scoring chances are likely to fall back toward the 6-8 TD range. Without that outlier production, Cook profiles as a low-end RB2 rather than the RB1 upside the market is pricing in.

Warren Sharp recommended taking Tyler Allgeier in the closing rounds as cheap insurance behind Bijan Robinson. Allgeier has logged 586 combined rushes and targets in three seasons without a single fumble or drop—a stat Sharp believes earns major trust from Zac Robinson’s staff. Although the sophomore was phased out down the stretch in 2024, he has already shown 1,000-yard capability when given lead-back volume. Sharp views him as one of the few handcuffs who could step straight into 18-plus touches if Robinson misses time while still offering occasional goal-line usage in shootout scripts.

Warren Sharp called Darnell Mooney one of his favorite last-round darts in best-ball because the market is ignoring two real paths to ceiling. First, Mooney operates almost exclusively on the deep out and deep comeback routes that Michael Penix loves rifling—Sharp compared the rookie’s velocity to Colin Kaepernick’s and said those "missiles" fit Mooney’s route tree perfectly. Second, if Drake London misses any time, Mooney would absorb the vacated perimeter targets and could push for double-digit looks weekly. Sharp thinks that combination of spike-week volatility and hidden contingent volume is not priced into Mooney’s WR70-range ADP.

Warren Sharp pegged Drake London as a priority pick at the Round-1/2 turn because Atlanta’s first eight or nine games set up as weekly track meets. The Falcons draw nothing but competent opposing offenses, and their own defense has finished 19th, 29th, 23rd, 18th, and 23rd in scoring over the last five seasons—numbers Sharp sees repeating even after two front-seven draft picks. With gunslinger Michael Penix under center and an average target depth over 10 yards, Sharp expects a Jameis-Winston-style environment full of high play volume and deep shots. London and Bijan Robinson are locked in, but Sharp is also sprinkling cheaper Falcons like Darnell Mooney and even Kyle Pitts, forecasting multiple spike-weeks before the schedule tightens up. London’s combination of guaranteed targets and likely shootouts gives him top-five positional upside.

Davis Mattek said grabbing Lamar Jackson at pick 32 and Zay Flowers at 56 is “an absolute layup.” For fewer than 90 combined draft slots drafters lock in Jackson’s unrivaled rushing floor plus 35-point ceiling and attach it to his clear No. 1 target. Mattek views the price as a discount compared with more expensive elite-QB stacks—Mahomes/Rice or Allen/Diggs—yet it still carries nuclear upside if Todd Monken maintains last year’s pass-rate-over-expected. Flowers’ slot-heavy role creates easy PPR points while Jackson’s scramble-drill chaotics add long-gain potential, maximizing correlated spike weeks that can flip best-ball playoff matchups. In Mattek’s eyes, the pairing is the cleanest way to gain exposure to Baltimore’s top-5 scoring projection without paying Round-2 capital for Mark Andrews.

Hayden Winks said Lamar Jackson – and the rest of the running-threat quartet of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels – are flat-out mispriced in current Underdog drafts. He pointed to a 36-point fantasy-points-over-replacement gap between those four and Joe Burrow at QB5 to prove that drafters are underpaying for the true difference-makers. Winks’ half-PPR sim work shows quarterbacks consistently finish higher in overall scoring than where they are drafted, while an eighth wide receiver rarely cracks best-ball lineups because of diminishing returns. With wide-receiver ADP flattening in Round 4, he wants drafters to take Jackson there, stack him, and then enjoy a weekly floor/ceiling combo no WR4 can match. The payoff: a larger advance-rate cushion early, plus unique playoff builds if Jackson misses games and returns for weeks 15-17.

Josh Norris said this is still the perfect moment to draft Lamar Jackson at the 3-4 turn even though several eye-popping 2023 numbers are destined to cool off. Jackson’s career-high 41 passing TDs came with a wild 61.4 % end-zone-throw TD rate, the second-best mark of the entire 2000s; Norris expects natural regression there. On the ground, Derrick Henry’s arrival is a real siphon: Jackson logged zero carries inside the five last season while Henry handled 95 % of Baltimore’s goal-line rushes, so those "free" short scores that prop up Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are unlikely. The bet is that Todd Monken’s pass-first DNA and Jackson’s age-28 prime keep overall volume rising even as the TD mix shifts. Norris views Jackson as a safe top-three fantasy QB with true QB1 overall upside, but warns gamers to build rushing-TD insurance elsewhere in their roster construction.

Hayden Winks is hammering Lamar Jackson at the end of Round 3, calling last season “sensational” and noting the former MVP is still only 28. Jackson paired trademark open-field freakiness with markedly improved pocket processing under Todd Monken, and Winks expects the Ravens to be even deeper in the pass game after adding another tight end and DeAndre Hopkins while keeping Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman in the fold. That blend of elite rushing ceiling plus now-elite in-structure efficiency gives Jackson a realistic shot at the best QB fantasy seasons we’ve seen. Given how shaky the RB/WR tier is in that draft range, Winks prefers locking in Jackson’s dual-threat production and stacking Baltimore pass catchers later.

Jake Ciely urged drafters not to forget Tyler Allgeier, calling him one of the most valuable late-round swings in fantasy. Allgeier averaged 19.8 PPR points over his final six games before Bijan Robinson arrived and logged five 20-carry outings during that stretch. Ciely argued that 90% of backs who absorb workhorse volume turn into weekly RB1s, and we already have proof Allgeier can handle it. With Atlanta’s offense projected top-10 in rush rate under new OC Zach Robinson, a single Bijan injury vaults Allgeier into fringe top-5 territory. At a Round-12 ADP, Ciely views him as a no-risk, league-winning stash.

Jake Ciely placed Bijan Robinson atop his 2025 season-long RB rankings because Atlanta’s coaching staff keeps hinting at an even heavier run philosophy under new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson. Jake noted that team quotes coming out of Flowery Branch have emphasized "leaning into the run even more" and—importantly—doing so through Bijan instead of the old Tyler Allgeier 50/50 split. Ciely’s projections separate Bijan from Saquon by only four points, but that incremental edge matters when Robinson already owns a top-five RB target share and now projects for a larger early-down and goal-line role. In short: a three-down workload on a run-first offense vaults Bijan to his overall RB1 spot.

Best Ball Guy said he’s at 40% exposure to Kirk Cousins in Underdog Superflex and thinks the ADP remains a steal. In his view, league-wide quarterback play is so shaky that "there’s no way he’s sitting" once he’s medically cleared. He outlined multiple paths: 1) veterans like Justin Fields getting benched, 2) rookies such as Michael Penix stumbling in Atlanta, and 3) a mid-season trade to Kevin Stefanski’s Browns or another contender desperate for stability. Each scenario gives Cousins an in-season starting role plus easy stacking partners like David Njoku or Cedric Tillman for Week-17 correlation. Given those outs, the tout framed Cousins as asymmetrical upside at a rock-bottom price in both Superflex and traditional Best Ball Mania builds.

Best Ball Guy pounced on Kyle Pitts at pick 157 and called the price "almost impossible to argue against." He noted that the market has "taken it pretty far" on fading Pitts, leaving the former top-five draft pick available in the 13th round of BBM6 drafts. At that ADP you can smooth out portfolio exposure, grab a tight end with true difference-making ceiling, and still leave yourself room to add a late flier at the position. In his view, drafters should scoop Pitts anytime he slips past 150 because the risk/reward profile tilts heavily in their favor.

When a viewer asked about Atlanta’s win total, Tyler Knaeble immediately endorsed betting the Falcons to go over 7.5 wins, calling the number “disrespectful.” He pointed to the same offensive reasons that have him overweight every Atlanta skill player not named Bijan Robinson: Mooney’s expected usage spike, Drake London’s reliable chain-moving role, Tyler Allgeier’s underrated efficiency, and the belief that either Kirk Cousins or first-rounder Michael Penix Jr. will be a legitimate upgrade at quarterback. In Knaeble’s view, the market is still pricing Atlanta like last year’s punch-less Arthur Smith unit, ignoring the influx of weapons and the more modern passing scheme under Zac Robinson. Because of that mismatch, he sees the over as one of the cleaner preseason win-total bets on the board.

Tyler Knaeble doubled down on Darnell Mooney as a screaming buy at his WR50 ADP in Best Ball drafts. He reminded viewers that Mooney quietly posted 992 yards, six scores and a 20 percent target share last season despite missing a game, then cited fresh coach-speak to argue an even larger 2024 workload: the Falcons’ WR coach told reporters, “We’re going to lean on him a lot more than we did last year.” Knaeble stressed that Mooney is a true outside receiver who will be on the field almost every snap because Atlanta added zero competition in the receiver room and could even move on from Kyle Pitts. He also likes the quarterback fit: rookie Michael Penix Jr. owns a stronger deep and outside-the-numbers arm than Kirk Cousins, matching Mooney’s vertical skill set. Put it all together and Knaeble believes Mooney’s ceiling is well above his current price, making him a player to hold 30-plus-percent exposure to in Best Ball tournaments.

Tyler Knaeble called Darnell Mooney the single best value on the Underdog draft board and said he is comfortable holding 30-plus-percent exposure. Knaeble reminded viewers Mooney racked up roughly 1,000 receiving yards last season despite missing a game, a total that beats or rivals wideouts going multiple rounds earlier such as Ricky Pearsall, Matthew Golden, Chris Olave, Romeo Doubs, and DeVonta Smith. Now slotted as the clear No. 2 target in what he expects to be an improved Falcons passing attack led by Kirk Cousins (with first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. waiting in the wings), Mooney offers WR2 production at a WR4/5 price. The combination of proven yardage upside, a step up in quarterback quality from the "noodle-arm" narrative around previous signal-callers, and rock-bottom ADP makes him a must-draft piece in Best Ball tournaments, according to Knaeble.

Conor O'Driscoll endorsed Tyler Allgeier as a low-leverage depth add in the mid-teens, saying the Falcons’ No. 2 back supplies just enough weekly points to cover rookie RB volatility later in the season. Atlanta averaged 30.5 rush attempts per game in 2023, and Allgeier still logged 36% of the carries even after Bijan Robinson’s arrival. Conor argued that pairing Allgeier’s bankable 8–10 touches with several late-round rookies prevents the roster from "playing catch-up" during the first half of the year while retaining contingent-value upside if Bijan misses time.

When Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins went just ahead of them, Conor O'Driscoll labeled Drake London "the clear tier" WR at their 2.07. He called London a perfect "bridge between what you're calling the 16-player first round and the next tier," giving them a reliable WR2 while still banking a slight value (one pick after ADP and two spots ahead of Sean Siegle’s WR9 ranking). The pair expect London’s target share to climb in Year 3 under a more pass-friendly coaching staff and were content to miss on the mini-run because London’s ADP/ceiling combination profiles as a tournament-winning piece in FFPC Best Ball builds.

Winks took Tyler Allgeier over Tank Bigsby despite holding a Jacksonville stack, arguing that Allgeier’s contingency and standalone value dwarf Bigsby’s three-way committee outlook. If Bijan Robinson misses time, the backfield snaps consolidate "only two ways" between Allgeier and gadget back Avery Williams, while Bigsby would still share work with Travis Etienne and rookie Jordan James. Winks reminded viewers that Allgeier has already produced a top-15 fantasy stretch (Weeks 13-17 of his rookie year) and owns a career 4.6 yards per carry behind Atlanta’s bully O-line. Drafting Allgeier in Round 14 creates a lever against the teams that spent a first-rounder on Bijan; if the starter goes down, their roster craters while Allgeier vaults into every-down volume on yours.

Nez highlighted new OC Zach Robinson’s quote that Kyle Pitts is a "big-time matchup problem" who finally grew "into a more complete tight end" down the stretch of 2023. Robinson flat-out said Pitts’ Underdog ADP (around pick 150) is "criminal." Nez agrees, noting Pitts still earned targets on 23% of his routes while playing through two different injuries. With Kirk Cousins replacing Desmond Ridder and Robinson pledging to feature the 6'6" weapon on early downs instead of just third-and-longs, Nez is comfortably double-digit overweight on Pitts as a backdoor TE1 in BBMVI.

Whalen tagged Atlanta at +155 to make the playoffs as one of the best value plays on the board. He concedes Tampa Bay’s offense could win the NFC South but slots the Falcons alongside the Rams, Vikings and Packers in the wild-card race. His optimism stems from second-year QB Michael Penix Jr.’s expected leap, a strong run game, and an upgraded defense that should keep Atlanta in the mix even if they fall short of the division title.

Jim Coventry said Drake London is being drafted just inside the top-10 receivers but still has room to blow past that price tag. Coventry pointed to London’s dominant close to 2024 — 94 receiving yards and 11.3 targets per game over the final six contests — and noted the numbers went nuclear once Michael Penix Jr. took over, jumping to 117 yards and 13 targets per game with seven catches and two-thirds of a touchdown on average in the last three weeks. Atlanta’s late-season identity revolved around Bijan Robinson on the ground and London through the air, and Coventry expects that same narrow usage tree in 2025. With true alpha volume already established and little target competition, Coventry believes London can realistically finish as the overall WR3 or WR4.

Emory Hunt projected a boom season for Michael Penix Jr., arguing the Falcons offense already looked markedly better during his limited appearances than it did with Kirk Cousins. Hunt referenced Penix’s poise in overtime wins against Washington and Carolina and said his down-field aggression should unlock Atlanta’s passing game. The franchise supplemented him with former UFL rushing champ Jashaun Corbin and retained a deep receiving corps, while the defense improved through the draft—factors Hunt believes will allow Penix to play from in front instead of chasing points. He expects "phenomenal numbers" that make Penix an upside late-round pick in season-long leagues and a viable Offensive Rookie of the Year bet.

Mike Wright said Caleb Johnson is the only Steeler he actively wants in drafts right now. Johnson’s current late-eighth-round Sleeper ADP is a temporary bargain—Wright expects it to jump several rounds once casual drafters arrive in August because rookies always spike. He projects Jaylen Warren to open the season as the nominal starter thanks to superior pass protection and Aaron Rodgers’ preference for veteran backs, but believes Johnson’s break-away speed and big-play profile will force a changing of the guard by October. Pittsburgh spent its first pick on Johnson to replace Najee Harris and wants more explosive runs after ranking 28th in pass rate under Arthur Smith. Rodgers’ presence means defenses can’t load the box, setting up chunk gains once Johnson’s touch share climbs. Wright urged fantasy managers in season-long leagues to draft Johnson ahead of Warren, remain patient through the first few weeks, and reap an upside RB2 the rest of the way.

Steve Palazzolo advised taking the OVER on Atlanta’s 7.5-win total. His optimism centers on the offense finally being able to run the full Shanahan-McVay derivative playbook now that Michael Penix—who flashed "phenomenal throws" in limited action last year—replaces the immobile Kirk Cousins. Palazzolo noted that Penix’s movement skills reopen under-center concepts and play-action designs that were scrapped in 2023. Supporting pieces are already strong: a quality offensive line, a deep running-back room, and proven pass-catchers. Defensively, Atlanta poured resources into the pass rush by signing and drafting multiple first-round edge rushers, while 2023 draftees have another year to develop. Although the schedule includes the AFC East and NFC West, he still believes the upgraded quarterback play plus a potentially league-average pass rush pushes the Falcons to eight or more wins, making the over a worthwhile wager.

Mattek locked in Lamar Jackson as his lone quarterback, betting that an 8-plus percent passing touchdown rate paired with a yet-to-happen 10-rushing-TD campaign could create an unrivaled fantasy ceiling. He reminded listeners that Jackson has already produced a 40-passing-TD season and sees no other QB—Josh Allen included—whose single-season upside equals a fully unlocked Lamar in 2025.

Ben Stevens urged bettors to bypass Baltimore’s +800 co-favorite price to win Super Bowl 60, arguing Lamar Jackson’s playoff résumé does not justify the number. Jackson is just 3-5 in the postseason with seven turnovers in his last two playoff runs, including two interceptions versus Kansas City in the 2023 AFC title game and a first-half pick/fumble against Buffalo last January. Stevens added that John Harbaugh’s staff has repeatedly abandoned its run-heavy identity in big spots, resulting in one-and-done exits despite top-seeded regular seasons. Until Jackson carries his 63.2% regular-season success rate into January, Stevens prefers divisional or win-total markets and recommends fading Baltimore in outright Lombardi futures or hedging with “Stage of Elimination” props (AFC Championship exit currently +300).

Emory Hunt told listeners to stash UDFA wideout Nick Nash in deep best-ball or dynasty formats. The former San Jose State quarterback-turned-receiver impressed the coaching staff and, according to Hunt, ‘is going to be a phenomenal pass catcher inside the red zone.’ With defenses focusing on Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, Nash could carve out goal-line snaps and poach touchdowns, giving him sneaky spike-week potential at the very end of drafts.

Emory Hunt urged bettors to skip the juiced 7.5 win total and instead play an alt over 9.5, asserting the Falcons can reach double-digit victories. Hunt blamed last year’s stagnation on Kirk Cousins and said the offense immediately improved once Michael Penix Jr. took over. With Penix entrenched for all 17 games, a healthy and re-engineered offensive line, and defensive upgrades through the draft, he projects a minimum of 10 wins even in a competitive NFC South. The higher alt number offers superior value relative to the heavy juice on the standard total.

Claudia Bellofatto advised taking Atlanta’s regular-season win total over 7.5 even at the juiced –145, provided bettors shop for a better price. She reminded listeners that the Falcons lost six of their final eight games last year yet still cleared eight wins, going 12–0 in one-score games. With Michael Penix Jr. starting from Week 1, Raheem Morris in his second season, and one of the league’s easiest schedules, she believes eight wins is the floor. Bellofatto dislikes laying –150 juice but thinks the statistical and situational factors make the over a sound wager.

Claudia Bellofatto agreed the Falcons can win the NFC South and said she is finally willing to invest money in the division. Her optimism centers on a top-five receiver (Drake London), an elite pass-catching back (Bijan Robinson), and an offensive line that returns every starter but the center spot. She noted that Atlanta ranked sandwiched between Philadelphia and Minnesota in offensive DVOA, then emphasized the fourth-easiest 2024 schedule. Although she still worries about the defense, Bellofatto thinks the offensive ceiling and favorable slate justify grabbing the current division price before it shortens.

Emory Hunt said the Falcons are a buy at +210 to win the NFC South. He pointed to how last season’s race wasn’t decided until Week 18, then highlighted Atlanta’s aggressive offseason: roster upgrades through both free-agency and the draft, plus a full season of Michael Penix Jr. under center. Hunt stressed that the division requires offensive fire-power and believes Atlanta now has the most. Given the expected parity among the Bucs, Panthers and Saints, he called +210 a ‘great value’ number before public expectations catch up.

Jason Moore selected Bijan Robinson as the first running back off the board and labeled him his personal RB1 for 2024. Moore sees no red flags— Robinson is young, suffered no significant injuries, and was already a top-12 back despite inconsistent usage under Arthur Smith. With Zac Robinson installing a Rams-style offense that feeds backs in the passing game, Moore thinks we still haven’t seen Bijan’s best season. He anticipates a huge workload bump, a receiving role that pushes him above the 60-catch mark, and elite goal-line equity on a much-improved Atlanta offense, giving Bijan overall RB1 upside without Christian McCaffrey’s durability concerns.

Tom Strachan said Tyler Allgeier should go several rounds earlier because the market is under-pricing his upside. Allgeier is being drafted after 15 other NFL RB2s even though the gap between him and Bijan Robinson is the eighth-largest RB1/RB2 ADP delta. Strachan pointed to Allgeier’s 2024 efficiency—10th in explosive run rate and 7th in duke rate—as proof he is more than a plodder. Over the last two seasons Allgeier logged six top-36 weekly finishes, so he can already fill a flex spot. If Bijan were to miss time, Strachan thinks Allgeier would instantly rank as a weekly RB1 given Atlanta’s run-heavy philosophy. He called Allgeier a priority stash in dynasty, best ball, and redraft formats.

Davis Mattek acknowledged he is slightly below market on Drake London but still took him because of the massive ceiling tied to Atlanta’s potential passing-volume shift. Mattek noted that if the Falcons can reach roughly 547 pass attempts, London—who logged 230 fantasy points last year—would command "one of the stronger target shares in all of football." The takeaway: London becomes a difference-maker if new quarterback Michael Penix Jr. pushes the offense toward league-average pass volume.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he is fading Kyle Pitts until he sees evidence the Falcons trust him as a full-time player. Pat reminded viewers that Pitts closed 2023 playing only 40-50 percent of snaps over the final month, a usage rate he called "objectively awful" for a tight end going in the single-digit rounds of BBM6. Pat thinks new coordinator Zac Robinson will lean even harder on two-back looks built around Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, further capping Pitts’ routes. Without a clear pathway back to 80-plus percent participation, Pat believes drafters are paying for a ceiling that simply is not there and recommends redirecting that capital to bankable wide receivers in the same range.

Jakob Sanderson endorsed Caleb Johnson as a priority RB pick after the eighth round, predicting the rookie settles into a two-thirds share of Seattle’s early-down snaps by Week 4 while Jaylen Warren handles most long-down-and-distance and two-minute work. Sanderson argued that the Aaron Rodgers signing is a quiet boon for Johnson because Rodgers has consistently peppered running backs on early downs—Green Bay ranked top-6 in early-down RB target rate in Rodgers’ final three seasons there. With DK Metcalf as the only established pass-catcher, Sanderson expects Johnson to siphon an extra catch or two per game, pushing him toward 17–19 touches weekly. Given Johnson’s cost relative to volume projections and Seattle’s upgraded offensive line (they invested two Day-2 picks in interior linemen), Sanderson believes he offers league-winning spike-week equity perfect for Best Ball tournaments.

Greg Brainos urged drafters to fade Kyle Pitts at his current price after reviewing 2023 usage. Pitts’ snap share cratered into the low-40s and 50s in competitive games, only spiking above 70% during blowouts. Brainos cited Raheem Morris’ in-season comments that Pitts "has some things he needs to work on," arguing the staff clearly views him as a situational piece, not a focal point. With OC Zach Robinson expected to continue a consolidated scheme around Drake London and Darnell Mooney, Brainos doubts Pitts reclaims a full-time role and believes his middle-round ADP bakes in a ceiling he is unlikely to hit.

Greg Brainos recommended scooping Darnell Mooney any time he falls past ADP, noting head coach Raheem Morris has "gushed" about Mooney more than almost any player he has coached. With Rams disciple Zach Robinson installing a condensed passing scheme and rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. eager to "launch missiles," Brainos sees Mooney functioning as the clear field-stretching WR2 behind Drake London. The role provides weekly spike-week potential and Brainos expects summer camp reports to push Mooney’s cost up once the beat writers notice how often the ball goes his way.

Billy Jones said Josh Allen is the only quarterback you need on many Best Ball Mania or Weekly Winners rosters. Jones stressed that quarterback scoring is "super, super connected to advance rate," and Allen supplies both a league-high floor and ceiling. He cited Allen’s weekly top-5 finish rate (34% last season) and rushing touchdown dominance—27 scores inside the five over the past three years—as reasons he can single-handedly drag a roster through the regular-season pods. Jones also reminded drafters that the Bills face playoff-style stakes down the stretch as they jockey with Kansas City for AFC home-field advantage, giving Allen a realistic shot at three straight 30-point outputs in Weeks 15-17. Cold-weather worries are irrelevant for a Wyoming native who has averaged 26.7 fantasy points in games below 35°F. Stack partners are optional, but a cheap add like Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid can juice correlation without forcing a second quarterback.