Sam Monson said Josh Allen should be the first quarterback off the board in season-long fantasy and any QB-centric futures market. Monson pointed to Allen’s "freak-show" arm talent, short-yardage rushing "cheat code" that routinely converts sneaks into touchdowns, and one of the NFL’s lowest pressure-to-sack rates – a combination that maximizes both floor and ceiling. He added that Allen’s underlying analytics profile is "utterly absurd," reinforcing that the Bills signal-caller has out-performed Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson over the past two seasons. Monson’s takeaway: prioritize Allen over Mahomes in drafts and MVP odds because the blend of elite passing splash plays plus bankable rushing production is unmatched right now.

Chris Raybon called Buffalo his favorite Super Bowl futures bet in the AFC, citing the league’s fifth-easiest strength-of-schedule and an unusually friendly layout: road slate features Houston and Pittsburgh while the toughest opponents—Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati—must all visit Orchard Park. That setup gives the Bills what Raybon believes is the cleanest path to the conference’s No. 1 seed, a huge edge under the current playoff format. Buffalo has cashed its win total OVER in seven of the last eight seasons and is 3-0 to the OVER since 2021, trends Raybon attributes to a well-run front office and coaching staff that consistently beats preseason market expectations. Although he personally avoids betting Overs at 11.5, he endorsed any strategy that pairs a modest win-total position with a larger Super Bowl ticket, arguing the market will react sharply if the Bills are in line for home-field advantage by Thanksgiving.

Greg Brainos called Ray Davis a smash late-round pick while James Cook skips offseason work in search of a new deal. Brainos noted veteran hold-outs almost always report before Week 1, but the missed practice time frequently leads to conditioning issues or soft-tissue tweaks that delay full workloads in September. Davis is already drawing rave reviews for his pass-catching polish—something Josh McDaniels covets—and Brainos believes he could handle 12–14 touches immediately if Cook’s reintegration is rocky. Given Buffalo’s league-high red-zone rush rate the past two seasons, Brainos sees Davis as a high-leverage handcuff whose value would spike with even a brief Cook setback.

Billy Jones called Dalton Kincaid at pick 163 ‘absurd value’ and the perfect third tight end to round out a Josh Allen build. Kincaid’s ADP had been hovering in the mid-130s, so a 30-spot discount lets drafters add him without over-investing at the position (Kelce at 100, Kraft at 139, Kincaid at 163). Billy emphasized that a Bills triple stack is especially potent in Underdog’s Sprint, a condensed three-week playoff where Buffalo plays two likely shootouts (vs KC, at MIA). With Stefon Diggs now in Houston, Kincaid’s 17% rookie-year target share should climb, and his 1.71 yards per route run already ranked sixth among TEs. Jones believes Kincaid offers 8-catch, 80-yard, multi-TD upside precisely when tournament payouts spike, making him a must-click when he free-falls this far.

Billy Jones said Josh Allen is the only quarterback you need on many Best Ball Mania or Weekly Winners rosters. Jones stressed that quarterback scoring is "super, super connected to advance rate," and Allen supplies both a league-high floor and ceiling. He cited Allen’s weekly top-5 finish rate (34% last season) and rushing touchdown dominance—27 scores inside the five over the past three years—as reasons he can single-handedly drag a roster through the regular-season pods. Jones also reminded drafters that the Bills face playoff-style stakes down the stretch as they jockey with Kansas City for AFC home-field advantage, giving Allen a realistic shot at three straight 30-point outputs in Weeks 15-17. Cold-weather worries are irrelevant for a Wyoming native who has averaged 26.7 fantasy points in games below 35°F. Stack partners are optional, but a cheap add like Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid can juice correlation without forcing a second quarterback.

Peter Overzet said Dalton Kincaid is the perfect "floor" piece when you’re rolling out a three-late-tight-end construction. Because the Bills ran the league’s 4th-highest pass-rate over expectation last year and let Kincaid log 79% route participation over the final eight games, Pete believes the sophomore can bank 4–6 catches most weeks. Pairing him with boom-bust rookie Tyler Warren lets drafters chase Warren’s fifth-round ceiling while still locking in weekly points from Kincaid. The added bonus is a cheap Week-17 Bills stack with Khalil Shakir, giving the roster correlation juice without paying up for Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound advised scooping James Cook despite rumors he might skip part of camp. Pat expects the Bills and their lead back to "get something done," and believes any temporary ADP dip is free equity on a player already locked into Buffalo’s passing-friendly backfield. In his view, even a small slide in price makes Cook an automatic click given the scarcity of three-down roles once quarterbacks start pushing every other position down the board in SuperFlex rooms.

Erickson urged drafters not to write off Elijah Moore, pointing to the same year-five, new-team breakout trend that boosts Josh Palmer. Despite chaotic quarterback situations in New York and Cleveland, Moore has posted back-to-back 100-target seasons and is still only 25—the same age as Rashee Rice. If Khalil Shakir were to miss time, Moore would slide directly into the starting slot role in an offense that just lost 241 targets. Erickson admitted Moore will need some breaks to make the roster and carve out snaps, but at a near-undrafted ADP he’s the type of free dart who can pay off massively if Joe Brady’s ‘everybody eats’ mantra continues.

Erickson called Josh Palmer a screaming late-round value, arguing the former Charger checks every box in his research on fifth-year wide-receiver breakouts. Palmer already owns two 100-target seasons, joins a new team (a trait shared by recent year-five WR1s Christian Kirk, Jerry Jeudy and DJ Moore), and now pairs his proven vertical ability with Josh Allen’s top-three deep-ball accuracy. Bills coaches have dubbed Palmer "positionless," promising to move him all over the formation—something they are not doing with rookie X Keon Coleman or slot-locked Khalil Shakir. Erickson believes that combination of volume flexibility and big-play juice gives Palmer true spike-week upside at a WR80 price tag.

Andrew Erickson said Khalil Shakir is the perfect "double" for best-ball builds that hammered running back early. Shakir rarely leaves the slot in Joe Brady’s ‘everybody eats’ attack and may quietly be Josh Allen’s most reliable chain-mover after logging an 81% catch rate and zero drops over his final eight games. Erickson noted that the Bills have 241 vacated targets and that James Cook’s outlier 19-TD season is unlikely to repeat, meaning Allen’s scores should funnel back to the air. At a WR70-plus ADP, Shakir provides steady weekly points with room for the occasional spike if the nebulous Buffalo pecking order tilts his way.

Davis Mattek warned that an early-round Tee Higgins pick boxes you into an awkward Joe Burrow decision. Unless Burrow free-falls past his Round-5 ADP (a bet Mattek rarely sees), you either overpay for the stack or are left with an expensive, unstacked Higgins. He prefers receivers like Drake London who preserve multiple quarterback pairings and keep draft-room "optionality" intact.

Ryan McDowell added fresh numbers to his fade of James Cook. Cook’s 2023 touchdown rate spiked to 7.7%, well above his 3.8% career average. McDowell calculated that if Cook had merely hit his own baseline rate, his fantasy production would have fallen from 16.5 PPR points per game to 13.5, turning an RB11 finish into RB21. Touchdowns already accounted for 41% of Cook’s total points—the highest share for any back with 60+ carries last season—making a repeat highly unlikely with Josh Allen siphoning goal-line work. Combine that with Buffalo’s reluctance to extend Cook, and McDowell sees more downside than upside at an RB13 startup price. He is steering clear even on contending rosters, recommending managers reallocate that capital to safer backs or elite receivers.

Ryan McDowell expressed concern over James Cook at RB13 (56th overall). He pointed to Cook’s unresolved contract situation—highlighted by the back skipping voluntary minicamp—as a red flag for long-term dynasty value. McDowell noted that 41% of Cook’s 2023 fantasy production came from an outlier 16 rushing touchdowns, a number that is hard to sustain with Josh Allen’s league-leading 34 rushing scores over the last three seasons siphoning goal-line work. If Buffalo declines to extend him, managers could be left holding a one-year asset with an uncertain 2026 landing spot. Given the heavy TD dependency and contractual volatility, McDowell recommends selling or avoiding Cook at his current startup price.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Keon Coleman a "terrible pick" at his current Underdog ADP in the 110-115 range, insisting the rookie should be going "in the 130s at best." Pat said drafters are paying for an immediate Year-1 breakout that showed "no signs of potentially happening" this spring. He is only clicking Coleman when he already has Josh Allen because tournament correlation can justify the reach, but in otherwise unstacked builds he would rather grab running-back values or pocket the falling onesie positions. Pat noted that ADP pressure in this area is driven by drafters “falling into the pack of sheep” chasing Bills exposure and not by any concrete depth-chart information from camp.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound likes Elijah Moore’s move to Buffalo in theory but says there is ‘no sense to draft him’ in Underdog’s 18-round Puppy because the role hierarchy behind Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid is still murky. In deeper 20-round formats he’s willing to sprinkle Moore as a late dart, but in shallower drafts he prefers higher-certainty players or premium quarterback/tight-end swings.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound recommended passing on Khalil Shakir at current ADP unless you already have Josh Allen and need the correlation. He noted Shakir’s price ‘has not changed in the last couple years’ despite Buffalo adding multiple similar wideouts (Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, etc.). In the same draft zone Pat would rather fill scarce tight-end or quarterback slots, calling Shakir a luxury pick that rarely moves the needle without direct Allen exposure.

Davis Mattek said that when you open a best-ball draft with only one early wideout you have to “project for a lot of quarterback points.” He took Josh Allen in the third round and immediately planned to pair him with another elite option – Jayden Daniels if available, or Lamar Jackson/Jalen Hurts if they slipped – because the duo’s different bye weeks and easy stacking partners maximize weekly scoring. Mattek expects an Allen–Daniels combo to clear 30 fantasy points most weeks, giving a hero-WR roster the floor and ceiling it needs while allowing him to ignore the wide-receiver position for several rounds.

John Breech expects Dalton Kincaid to regain momentum after a "weird" second season where he posted only 44 catches—still second on the team—but saw Josh Allen complete just 58% of passes when targeting him versus 64% to everyone else. Breech chalked it up to timing issues, not talent. Buffalo’s quiet offseason at pass catcher—adding only Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore—signals the staff still views Kincaid as a focal point. If the Allen-Kincaid connection normalizes to league-average efficiency, the young tight end could push for 70-plus receptions and solid TE1 status in season-long formats.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound labeled rookie Ray Davis a "good pick right now" in the 140s overall because James Cook’s contract standoff gives Davis multiple outs to smash. Cook reportedly wants $15-plus million annually and could follow his brother Dalvin’s past hold-out blueprint. Pat noted that even a trade demand would thrust Davis into sizeable early-season work, and the market isn’t fully accounting for that contingency. With cook uncertainty driving Buffalo backfield volatility, Pat aims for roughly 17-20 percent Davis exposure, calling him a priority late dart who can pay off through a Cook hold-in, injury, or red-zone role expansion.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound wants 8-10% exposure to James Cook but is intentionally waiting to draft him until the Bills’ contract drama clears. Cook reportedly wants $15 million a year, and Pat believes trade rumors or a hold-in could push his ADP down rather than up. Because the market is unlikely to price-hike Cook even if he stays, but could discount him if talks sour, Pat is content to pass for now and scoop shares later at a potentially cheaper cost.

Calling it ‘ludicrous,’ Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told listeners to auto-click Josh Allen any time he slips into the 40s of drafts. At that price you’re landing a quarterback who has finished top-3 in fantasy points per game four straight seasons and has averaged 27.4 combined pass-plus-rush TDs during Weeks 15-17 in his career—exactly when Best Ball Mania titles are decided. Pat argued drafters are over-reacting to Buffalo’s offseason changes while simultaneously reaching for lower-ceiling QBs later. He sees Allen’s rushing floor (8.0 carries and 0.55 TDs per game since 2020) plus proven 35-point weekly ceiling as unmatched leverage in the early-fourth round.

Davis Mattek argued that you do not have to force a Bills pass-catcher whenever you draft Josh Allen in Underdog’s Eliminator. He pulled up Allen’s 2023 blow-up game against the Rams— the single largest quarterback fantasy score of the year— and noted that the top Buffalo receiver in that contest was Khalil Shakir with only 19.6 points. Mattek said the stat illustrates Allen’s unique ceiling: his rushing production and willingness to spread targets mean he can post 35-plus on his own, so the usual correlation tax is optional. Mattek is comfortable taking Allen as a naked QB1 (his only bring-back was RB Ray Davis in this draft) and using the freed roster spots on higher-upside one-off plays from other teams.

Davis Mattek said Ray Davis is the exact kind of anti-fragile running back he wants in Underdog’s Eliminator. Mattek reminded listeners that running-back breakouts are driven by opportunity, not talent, and noted Davis would vault into 15-20 touches a week the moment James Cook or Ty Johnson misses time. That injury path also creates a mini-correlation with Josh Allen: fewer healthy backs means more designed QB runs and check-downs, so a single Bills injury turbo-charges two roster spots at once. Because late-round wideouts rarely crack starting lineups, Mattek prefers betting on Davis’ contingent volume in an offense that finished top-5 in red-zone snaps three straight seasons. He grabbed Davis as his RB5 and called him "the easiest fragility bet on the board."

Davis Mattek said you should snap-take Josh Allen whenever he slips to the late-second/early-third round in Underdog’s Eliminator because the weekly, head-to-head format magnifies elite quarterback spike weeks. Allen normally costs a mid-second pick but occasionally drifts when drafters hammer running backs early; Mattek called that ADP slide “a huge value.” He added that Allen’s dual-threat profile has produced 32 games of 28-plus fantasy points since 2020—more than any QB over that span—so a single 40-point eruption can single-handedly win an Eliminator matchup and let you coast through the early payout weeks (money starts in Week 4). Mattek also liked the natural AFC East mini-correlation on Allen teams because most Josh drafters are selecting Dolphins RB Devon Achane or Jets RB Breece Hall at the 2-3 turn, combinations that will be relatively unique in a contest where duplicated studs dampen upside. Bottom line: if Allen falls past ADP, take him and enjoy the weekly floor/ceiling edge that cheaper quarterbacks simply cannot match in a no-bad-weeks structure.

Davis Mattek staked his flag on Ray Davis, calling the 27-year-old rookie a slam-dunk value because "James Cook leading the NFL in touchdowns on <50% of snaps is so non-repeatable." Mattek reminded listeners that when Cook missed time last year, Ty Johnson paper-started but Davis handled the money touches. Buffalo ranked third in expected RB fantasy points inside the 10-yard line, yet Cook ceded 62% of those looks. Mattek believes the Bills want a thumper to finish drives and sees Davis’s three-down profile—he posted a 17% college target share—as a perfect fit. If Cook slides back to pass-down specialist, Mattek projects 225 touches for Davis and double-digit TD upside, making him an ideal mid-round swing in Best Ball tournaments.

When Dalton Kincaid slid 16 picks past ADP, Pat Fantasy Dog Pound still passed because he refuses to take the Bills tight end "typically uncorrelated." Pat argued that Kincaid’s week-winning spikes are tied almost entirely to Josh Allen double-stacks and that rostering him naked sacrifices both playoff ceiling and closing-line value. He reminded viewers that 72 % of Kincaid’s games under 10 fantasy points in 2023 came when Allen failed to throw three touchdowns, underscoring the dependence. Pat’s rule of thumb: if you do not already have Allen or at least one premium Buffalo receiver, let someone else eat the discount and instead pivot to a tight end whose ceiling is less stack-sensitive.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound warned that drafters are making a mistake taking Josh Allen second or third overall in Underdog’s new Sprint contest. He noted that Allen’s ADP in normal Best Ball Mania rooms is still in the low-30s, and the only reason he is rocketing up the Sprint boards is because a fresh CSV rank file pushed quarterbacks to the very top of the queue. Pat called the early-round premium "flat-out wrong" and pointed out that he personally scooped Allen at pick 31 in a slow draft just last week, locking in the exact same weekly ceiling while preserving a first-round pick for a true difference-maker at another position. His advice: wait for the market to settle and only click Allen once he slides at least a full round past his BBM ADP—around 30–34 overall—so you capture closing-line value and avoid sacrificing an elite wideout or running back.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound revealed he is sitting at 23.5 % exposure to rookie Ray Davis—nearly triple the current field—and thinks that stance is “just correct right now.” His thesis: ongoing FUD around James Cook’s goal-line usage and Buffalo’s public flirtations with veteran power backs make Davis the most likely beneficiary if the Bills pivot to a two-back rotation. Pat highlighted Davis’s 1,800 scrimmage yards and SEC-leading 21 TDs last season at Kentucky, plus Buffalo’s league-high 17 inside-the-five rush attempts in 2023. At a final-round price tag, Davis offers a live path to red-zone work on a top-five scoring offense while still providing unique advance-rate leverage if Cook falters or gets dinged.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound dismissed the idea of a Keon Coleman sophomore leap, stating, “I don’t think Keon’s very good—his Reception Perception was a lot of red.” Pat highlighted Coleman’s documented difficulty separating at every route angle and pointed out that Buffalo already rotates its wideouts heavily. He will only draft Coleman when paired with Josh Allen for correlation but refuses to treat the second-year receiver as a standalone value in Eliminator builds that need early spike weeks.

Pete Overzet said he is still willing to draft Dalton Kincaid at current Best Ball Mania cost even though Buffalo’s scheme suppresses tight-end ceilings. He admitted the Bills will "run more than we want" and continue to rotate personnel, limiting Kincaid’s raw route volume and denying him a classic play-action, every-down role. However, Overzet believes the market is over-reacting to last year’s modest usage. Kincaid played through multiple nagging injuries as a rookie and still flashed, and—crucially—the Bills declined to add meaningful target competition this offseason. That vote of confidence plus a healthy offseason leaves room for a Year-2 leap. Overzet’s takeaway: the structural ceiling may be lower than a Mark Andrews-type profile, but in the ninth- or tenth-round pocket Kincaid remains an easy buy on Josh Allen rosters because a snap-share bump and improved health could turn him into a 6-catch weekly floor with touchdown upside.

Pete Overzet said his only regret from the live draft was taking Rhamondre Stevenson at pick 130 instead of reaching almost 20 spots for rookie Ray Davis, who ultimately went at 148. Because the roster already featured Josh Allen, Overzet wanted the cheap Buffalo correlation and believes Davis’s role in a high-powered offense gives him tournament-winning upside that compensates for the reach. With drafters increasingly hunting for late-season Bills stacks, he expects Davis’s ADP to tighten, so he is comfortable grabbing the rookie a full round ahead of current consensus whenever he anchors an Allen build.

Pete Overzet told drafters not to sweat stacking when it comes to Josh Allen. He noted Allen accounted for 42% of Buffalo’s rushing touchdowns and spread targets among nine different pass-catchers last season, making expensive pairings like Dalton Kincaid unnecessary. Overzet is comfortable taking Allen in Round 4 and filling correlation later with cheap pieces such as Khalil Shakir or rookie RB Ray Davis. The upside of a 28-point median in Week 17 outweighs any lost correlation EV, and selecting Allen early frees drafters to pound running back value in the Round 9-11 pocket where they’d normally be taking their first QB.

Jason Moore told dynasty managers to flip James Cook immediately, preferably for Kenneth Walker and a sweetener. Moore argued Cook’s 2024 RB1 finish was smoke-and-mirrors: 16 rushing touchdowns accounted for 43 percent of his fantasy points, a rate he called flat-out unsustainable. Buffalo used a three-back rotation—rookie Ray Davis as the likely goal-line hammer and Ty Johnson siphoning third-down work—making another 16-TD season almost impossible. Cook is already 25.6 and threatening a hold-in for $14 million per year, so Moore expects contract uncertainty to weigh on his price once the touchdowns dry up. He personally ranks Walker ahead of Cook, noting Walker is four months older than incoming rookie RJ Harvey yet has two 1,000-yard seasons and a new coordinator who "keeps mentioning him by name." Moore’s advice: dangle Cook’s perceived top-10 status to a contender, walk away with Walker plus a pick, and watch the market correct itself when Cook slides back into low-end RB2 territory.

Jason Moore advised cashing out on James Cook after his outlier 16-touchdown, top-10 finish. Cook is already 25.6, is threatening a hold-in for $14 million per year, and scored those 16 rushing TDs despite fewer opportunities per game and a lower snap share than the previous season. Moore noted Buffalo’s willingness to rotate backs—rookie Ray Davis profiles as a goal-line hammer and Ty Johnson siphoned third-down work in 2024—making a repeat highly unlikely. In 2022–23 Cook had just two rushing scores combined, suggesting massive negative touchdown regression. Moore said he personally flipped Cook for Chuba Hubbard plus multiple 2nd-rounders on a rebuilding roster and would take any top-10 RB pricing before Cook’s value settles into RB2 territory once the touchdowns dry up or he lands a modest free-agent deal similar to Alexander Mattison’s.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound declared Ray Davis his favorite last-round running-back dart, ranking him ahead of 49ers rookie Isaac Guerendo. Pat highlighted Davis’s ball-security (zero fumbles on 593 collegiate touches) and workhorse résumé—he posted a 1,129-yard, 14-TD senior season at Kentucky while handling 21.5 touches per game. Buffalo spent Day-3 capital on Davis despite already having James Cook, which Pat reads as a sign they want a downhill hammer for red-zone and cold-weather games. Davis needs only a minor injury to Cook—or a coaching decision to keep Cook in his high-efficiency receiving role—to inherit 12-15 carries on one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses. By contrast, Guerendo would still be behind Christian McCaffrey and possibly Elijah Mitchell even if CMC misses time. Pat’s takeaway: make Davis your go-to RB6 in three-RB builds because his path to meaningful volume is much cleaner than other backs in the 17th-round range.

Chris Raybon labeled Khalil Shakir “criminally undervalued” at WR45 and placed him at WR30 after the Bills handed him a four-year, $60 million extension with $30 million guaranteed. Raybon highlighted Shakir’s volume surge once Stefon Diggs was dealt: excluding a meaningless Week 18, Shakir produced 5+ catches in 12 of 18 games and 6+ in 10 (56%). His target-per-route rate hovered just under 26%, borderline elite for a slot. Snap share climbed from 72% the first eight contests to 81% over the final ten, and Buffalo’s depth chart now features mostly gadget types behind him. Raybon’s takeaway: “Follow the money—Buffalo just told us who their No. 1 is.” At a mid-40s ADP you can draft a potential team target leader tethered to Josh Allen, giving Shakir WR2 upside at a WR4 cost in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Calling him a “best-ball only pick,” Sean Koerner pushed Keon Coleman up to WR49 while the market leaves him at WR58. Koerner noted Buffalo cleared out downfield competition by parting with Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins, leaving Coleman to inherit the old Gabe Davis role. The rookie already flashed similar production—29-556-5 on limited routes—almost mirroring Davis’s 35-599-7 debut year. With Khalil Shakir operating as the underneath volume sponge, Koerner projects Coleman to dominate the deep-target pie and sees 80-95% route participation by mid-season. The weekly floor will be low, but in best ball you only need the 2-for-80-and-a-TD weeks, and Koerner expects several of those in Allen-led shootouts. He advised taking the late-round swing before ADP catches up.

Pete Overzet said Joshua Palmer is one of the biggest ADP mistakes in Underdog’s Sprint right now. Palmer routinely goes inside pick 150 in Best Ball Mania, but in the Sprint he is still lingering in the late-170s despite 241 vacated Charger targets after Keenan Allen and Mike Williams departed. Overzet reminded listeners that Justin Herbert has peppered Palmer with a 17 percent target share whenever he’s been healthy, and new OC Greg Roman historically funnels first reads to big-bodied perimeter options (Michael Crabtree, Marquise Brown, Anquan Boldin). At a basement price you can complete a cheap Herbert triple-stack while other drafters grab dusty veterans with no ceiling. Overzet called Palmer a "smash button" pick who should settle 20–25 spots higher once the market wakes up.

Jon Warner questioned Josh Allen’s current 6.3 average draft slot in the Sprint and advised passing on him at that price. Warner noted the same ADP spike happened last year before correcting and argued the Sprint’s rotisserie playoff format still demands ceiling games, making the opportunity cost of skipping elite RBs and WRs too steep. In a 216-player pool you can grab starting backs like Tony Pollard in Round 6, something you forfeit if you spend that pick on a onesie. Buffalo’s neutral Week 16-18 schedule offers no clear matchup advantage, so Warner believes Allen belongs closer to the late-second round rather than the mid-first.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafters should pounce on Josh Allen any time he slips past pick 10 in Underdog’s $20 Sprint. Allen’s Sprint ADP is currently 3-4 overall, yet Pat flagged a slow draft where the Bills QB lasted to pick 31 and called it “crazy value.” He credited the slide to auto-drafters and unsettled early-contest ADPs, noting Allen opened at 2.7. Pat expects the market to correct once rooms sharpen, so scooping Allen now provides a full round of closing line value on a dual-threat quarterback who has already logged two QB1 overall finishes in the last four seasons.

Hayden Winks said drafters should be pouncing on Josh Allen any time he slides a half-round past ADP because the elite-QB tier is cheaper than ever. In previous Best Ball summers Allen and Lamar Jackson were tethered to first- or second-round pass catchers (Stefon Diggs, Mark Andrews) that artificially boosted their cost; with those receivers now going later, the quarterbacks themselves have drifted into the late third/early fourth despite no change in weekly ceiling. Winks pointed out that Allen finishes top-25 in points over replacement every season and routinely end-zones 30-plus touchdowns through the air and on the ground. Without a Round-1 tax, Allen becomes a structural smash—especially on builds that start WR-WR or WR-RB—because you secure the highest median QB scorer while the room chases uncertain stacks. Winks labeled it a perfect leverage play on Burrow/Chase rooms that rarely roster Allen.

Michael Leone said Keon Coleman is the late-round Bills receiver he’s "most excited to draft right now." Leone admitted Coleman’s rookie season was rocky – poor separation metrics and a wrist injury – but emphasized Buffalo’s off-season moves leave a wide-open path to volume. The Bills let Gabe Davis walk, added only cheap veterans, and already view Coleman as a locked-in starter opposite Khalil Shakir. With Josh Allen’s offense annually finishing top-3 in pass TDs, Leone expects Coleman to be "given every opportunity" to post a 20-plus percent target share. Coleman’s ADP hasn’t adjusted the way Shakir’s has, so drafters are still catching a cheap bet on a sophomore leap tied to an elite quarterback, something Leone framed as "exactly the profile that smashes in Best Ball Mania."

Pete Overzet warned drafters not to get sucked into Keon Coleman’s highlight-reel catches, bluntly stating "Keon kind of sucks." He argued Coleman did little in college to suggest he can earn NFL targets—posting a middling 1.64 yards per route and relying on contested grabs—while Khalil Shakir has already shown the Bills staff he can separate and command volume. Overzet also pointed out that during Buffalo’s playoff run, veteran Mack Hollins, not Coleman, routinely stepped in as the secondary option behind Shakir, underscoring the rookie’s steep path to snaps. Until Coleman’s price drops another round or he flashes in camp, Overzet is fading him in best ball drafts.

Pete Overzet advised scooping Khalil Shakir as a "boring but profitable" WR4. Buffalo did nothing meaningful at wide receiver in the draft—something GM Brandon Beane got defensive about—leaving Shakir as the lone pass-catcher on the roster who has already shown he can earn targets consistently. Overzet reminded listeners that Shakir handled high-leverage routes in last season’s playoff push and that Josh Allen’s offenses have finished top-five in points per drive three straight years. With Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid still unproven, Overzet expects Shakir to beat his late-8th/early-9th-round ADP, providing steady double-digit weeks and the occasional 20-pointer necessary to advance in Best Ball Mania 6.

Tyler Knaeble said Keon Coleman has quietly become one of the cleanest values in early-summer best-ball rooms. Coleman’s real-life situation in Buffalo is unchanged, but his ADP has slid because every flashier rookie wideout (Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, etc.) now goes in the fourth or fifth round. That inversion means drafters can land Josh Allen’s presumptive WR1 nearly a full round later than pre-draft, while the Bills still project top-10 in pass rate over expectation with only Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel competing for perimeter snaps. Knaeble reminded listeners that GM Brandon Beane has repeatedly defended the receiver room—"he’ll yell at you for 30 seconds about it"—and that Buffalo did not add a veteran target hog after the draft. With a clear path to 110-plus targets and spike-week linkage to an elite quarterback, Knaeble is upping his Coleman exposure now before the market corrects.

Billy Jones said he is perfectly comfortable clicking Josh Allen as early as pick 40—seven spots past ADP but still the fourth round in an 18-round Best Ball Mania room. Jones explained that he wants roughly 12-13 percent exposure to Allen because 2024 draft rooms are littered with "bench-risk" quarterbacks who come off the board after pick 150. With more teams inserting injury clauses and back-loaded guarantees, Jones expects several late-round QBs to be parking-lot deactivated by fantasy playoff weeks. Paying up for Allen removes that headache while still giving drafters access to the league’s No. 1 per-game scorer at the position and a weekly rushing-TD ceiling that no other early QB besides Jalen Hurts can match. In his view, the single extra roster spot you gain by stopping at two quarterbacks is worth the modest opportunity cost of taking Allen in the fourth.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Keon Coleman looks like one of the cleaner sophomore break-out bets in Best Ball Mania drafts. Pat reminded listeners that Buffalo’s coaching staff labeled Coleman "raw" as a rookie, so last year’s uneven production was exactly what we should have expected. The bar for a 2024 jump is simply holding a 70-plus percent route rate and stealing red-zone work, both realistic goals on a Bills depth chart that rotates four wideouts every week. With rookie receivers screaming up boards, Coleman’s ADP has actually stayed flat in the 11th–12th round, giving drafters access to touchdown-spike weeks without paying the rookie tax. Pat likes tacking Coleman onto Josh Allen builds or as a stand-alone bet on second-year growth now that the price is finally palatable again.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Dalton Kincaid has become his favorite stacking partner when he starts a team with Josh Allen. The 2023 first-rounder is going two full rounds after Sam LaPorta did as a rookie, yet Kincaid quietly finished top-12 among tight ends in receptions (73) and earned targets at an 18% rate despite sharing routes with Dawson Knox for half the season. With Buffalo letting Gabe Davis walk and adding only day-three rookies at receiver, Pat believes Kincaid could lead the team in red-zone targets. He expects offseason clips of the Allen-Kincaid connection to push the tight end up a tier, making current prices "steal territory."

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said drafters should pounce whenever Josh Allen slides into the mid-fourth round of Best Ball Mania 6. He argued Underdog’s new 20-round format amplifies the edge of an elite quarterback because managers who land Allen can confidently stop at two passers, freeing an extra late-round pick for upside receivers or running backs. Pat noted Allen’s five consecutive top-2 fantasy finishes and league-best 7.8 designed rush attempts per game as proof his weekly ceiling is unmatched. With sharp rooms chasing wide-receiver avalanche builds, Allen is slipping “half a round or more,” a discount Pat believes will evaporate once casual summer drafters arrive.