Citing beat reporter Joe Buscaglia, Josh noted that Josh Palmer has been a "magnet" for first-team reps in Buffalo’s camp. Palmer just inked a new deal, can play both outside and in the slot, and ties himself to a Josh Allen offense that is perennially top-five in weekly scoring. With Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel offering volatile roles, Palmer becomes a low-cost way to capture Bills upside when you need an emergency WR or flex starter.

James Koh said James Cook could be an even better fantasy asset in 2025 because Buffalo has plenty of room to expand his workload. Cook handled only 55 % of the team’s combined carries plus targets last season (21st among starters), yet still punched in 18 touchdowns on 4.87 yards per carry and quality receiving work. Koh believes a reasonable jump to a 65 % opportunity share would more than offset expected touchdown regression, giving Cook weekly RB1 equity. He graded Cook’s job security a perfect 10/10 and noted that no backup on the roster threatens him on talent or draft-capital grounds.

Josh targeted Khalil Shakir around WR40-41 overall because Buffalo guaranteed his contract through 2026, ensuring a stable role alongside Josh Allen. Shakir produced eight top-25 scoring weeks last season even though the Bills spread targets, showing weekly plug-and-play utility. While Josh concedes Shakir is ‘not a ceiling play,’ he views the price as a safe, dynasty-friendly bet on a top-three scoring offense where the floor matters once bye weeks hit.

Nick Whalen labeled Khalil Shakir a set-and-forget bench receiver. Drafted in the 80-90 overall range, Shakir consistently supplies 10-16 PPR points without disappearing weeks. He led Buffalo by 32 catches last year and out-paced every true wide receiver by at least 45 receptions despite the Bills spreading targets. Whalen likes the Bills’ soft 2024 schedule and believes the offense will again rank near the top in scoring. If managers want stability instead of boom-bust plays in that draft zone, Shakir’s volume and role make him a "safe" selection who should slide into the weekly WR3/flex mix.

Nick Whalen said Josh Allen is the single safest way to spend an early pick at quarterback. Allen has finished as a top-3 fantasy QB in five straight seasons and averages roughly 40-45 combined touchdowns every year thanks to a stable mix of passing and red-zone rushing scores. Despite his reckless running style he has barely missed time, giving managers a uniquely high floor. Whalen noted the Bills changed almost nothing schematically, will again run a receiver-by-committee attack, and have one of the league’s most forgiving schedules, so he expects Allen to crank out his usual elite weekly production with minimal risk.

Ian Hartitz said drafters who do not plan on churning waivers or making sharp trades should simply pay up for Josh Allen. His point was that locking in 25-plus fantasy points most weeks eliminates streaming headaches and gives a baked-in edge over rosters platooning QB15-type options. Hartitz lumped Allen into a tiny first tier—alongside Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jaden Daniels and (in six-point-pass-TD formats) Joe Burrow—arguing the weekly ceiling/floor combo those names provide is meaningfully different from the next dozen quarterbacks.

Andrew Avery countered that pairing Josh Allen at +600 for MVP with a Bills Super Bowl future creates an attractive correlated payout. Avery highlighted that several books now offer MVP-championship combo tickets and that Buffalo’s 2025 schedule is unusually soft for a team coming off a division title. With Allen likely to post gaudier counting stats against that slate and media narratives rewarding a bounce-back passing season, Avery argued the ceiling outcome is better captured through the combo market than the straight 6-to-1 MVP ticket alone.

Tony Farmer advised bettors to fade Josh Allen’s current +550 to +600 MVP price. Farmer pointed out that Allen’s traditional passing numbers pulled back last season, making it unlikely that voters reward a similar statistical line two years in a row. While acknowledging Allen’s dual-threat impact, Farmer believes narrative fatigue and the difficulty of going back-to-back after already winning the award make the implied 15–17% probability too steep. He prefers allocating bankroll elsewhere in preseason awards markets.

Andrew Avery said Keon Coleman is a value target in season-long and best-ball formats because his vertical skill set already meshes with Josh Allen’s aggressiveness. Avery noted Coleman ranked fourth among all NFL wideouts with at least 50 targets in 2024 thanks to a 33.9% deep-target rate. Coleman publicly called his own rookie campaign "trash," took accountability for conditioning issues, and has reportedly rededicated himself this off-season. Avery argued that if Coleman simply stays on the field he can convert those high-aDOT looks into a "nice little breakout," even if he falls short of 1,000 yards. The analyst emphasized Buffalo’s soft first-place schedule, which should provide plenty of neutral- or positive-script passing volume to support at least one secondary receiving option behind Stefon Diggs.

Andrew Avery played Keon Coleman over 750.5 receiving yards at ‑110 (DraftKings). He expects a breakout sophomore season now that Coleman is fully healthy and facing limited depth-chart competition. Coleman ranked fourth among WRs with at least 50 targets in 2024 with a 33.9% deep-target rate and already posted a 125-yard game versus Tennessee last year. Avery likes the established connection with Josh Allen, the Bills returning all five starting linemen, and the offense’s top-three PFF ranking to keep volume high enough for Coleman to flirt with 800-plus yards if he simply maintains last season’s per-route efficiency over a full schedule.

Sam Monson acknowledged turnover luck is volatile but still expects Buffalo’s defense to remain a top-tier takeaway unit, making the Bills DST a high-ceiling play in season-long leagues and a viable DFS tournament option when salaries dip. He compared their zone-heavy structure to vintage Lovie Smith defenses that consistently beat league averages, noting the scheme keeps defenders’ eyes on the quarterback and that Sean McDermott’s staff explicitly drills ball disruption each week. Buffalo has finished top-5 in defensive turnover percentage in back-to-back seasons and added more length and depth up front this offseason, factors Monson believes will sustain pressure rates and keep the takeaway engine humming even if raw interception totals regress a bit.

Steve Palazzolo also took the over on Buffalo’s 11.5 win total, echoing Monson’s 13-win forecast but adding division-level context. Palazzolo argued that with Miami taking a step back, the Jets shuffling at quarterback and New England only marginally improved, Buffalo should once again clinch the AFC East weeks before the finale—just as they locked it up before even playing the Patriots last season. Early clinching provides a cushion against late-season variance and makes 12-plus wins the likeliest outcome. He added that Buffalo’s historically stable turnover margin and newly built ‘hockey-style’ defensive-line rotation give them a higher floor than other elite win-total peers such as Baltimore, urging bettors to grab 11.5 before books move to 12.

Sam Monson predicted Buffalo to finish with 13 regular-season wins, comfortably clearing the current 11.5 win total posted at most sportsbooks. Monson pointed to the franchise’s five-year pattern of alternating between 11 and 13 victories, the front office’s offseason push to stockpile defensive-line and cornerback depth that should insulate them from the injury attrition that sabotaged previous playoff runs, and a softer AFC East outlook with Miami regressing on paper, the Jets in transition and New England still rebuilding. He expects Buffalo to lock up the division by early December again, giving them several ‘free-roll’ games late and raising their median win projection. Monson advised grabbing the over before the market bumps the number to 12.

During the receiver discussion, Steve Palazzolo emphasized that Buffalo has intentionally stacked “inside, tight-split, slot-type weapons”—naming Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and especially Keon Coleman, whom he said “probably excels there the most.” With newly signed Josh Palmer expected to handle boundary snaps, Palazzolo anticipates Coleman operating primarily from condensed formations where Josh Allen is most comfortable. That alignment should translate into quick-hitting targets, mismatches on smaller slot corners, and reliable red-zone usage, making Coleman a late-round PPR pick with week-to-week flex appeal.

Steve Palazzolo said Buffalo’s offense is no longer 100 percent Josh Allen hero-ball, noting “there’s more games where he doesn’t have to do as much.” He credited continuous offensive-line improvement under coach Aaron Kramer—highlighted by Brandon Thorn ranking the unit No. 2 league-wide—for a run game that “is getting better and better.” Palazzolo thinks that places James Cook at the center of a more balanced attack. With the line generating larger rushing lanes and Cook’s receiving chops keeping him on the field in all scripts, Palazzolo views Cook as an undervalued fantasy asset who should see both touch volume and efficiency climb in 2025 drafts.

Sam Monson leaned to the over on FanDuel’s 11.5-win total for Buffalo. He pointed to the team’s 13-4 record last season, virtually zero offensive turnover, and Brandon Thorn’s ranking of the Bills offensive line as the NFL’s second-best. Monson added that Josh Allen returns as the reigning MVP, the run game has become a legitimate second path to victory, and Brandon Bean loaded up on defensive-line and corner depth to avoid the late-season attrition that hurt recent playoff runs. All of those factors, plus the AFC East’s uncertainty behind Buffalo, led Monson to treat 12-plus wins as the most likely outcome.

Best Ball Guy flagged the Warren-Kraft-Njoku-Loveland-Kincaid-Goddard-Ferguson pocket as the most mispriced tier of the entire draft. He said their median projections outscore the running backs and wide receivers going in the same range, so he prefers to wait and scoop one or two names from this cluster instead of paying earlier at the position.

Rich Hribar said that Dalton Kincaid is a much stronger target in full-PPR or DraftKings best-ball builds than in formats that emphasize touchdowns. Hribar pointed out that Kincaid has seen only seven end-zone targets across his first two seasons and still must prove he can out-block Dawson Knox on money downs. Because the touchdown equity is thin, Hribar is chasing the catch volume instead, noting that Kincaid’s usage profile and statistical trajectory mirror Evan Engram, who turned a similar role into a 110-catch campaign with Jacksonville. In short, Kincaid can pile up receptions even if he finishes with three to five scores, making him a floor-driven TE play for PPR best-ball drafters.

Rich Hribar labeled Dalton Kincaid a classic post-hype buy, ideal for best-ball or any full-PPR setting. The only real hurdle is Buffalo’s 11-personnel preference: Khalil Shakir is locked into the slot, so Kincaid must out-block Dawson Knox to stay on the field in those packages. Hribar argued that if Kincaid’s snap share climbs, the targets will follow—he already commanded seven end-zone looks in limited work last year. Touchdowns may lag, but Hribar compared Kincaid’s early career arc to Evan Engram’s, forecasting steady 5-7 catch games once the Bills commit to him. Cheap volume plus occasional spike weeks makes Kincaid an attractive TE2 after Pick 100.

Ben Gretch warned that Josh Allen no longer belongs in the same fantasy tier as Lamar Jackson or Jaden Daniels because Buffalo’s offense is slowing down. Under Joe Brady the Bills averaged only 60.3 plays per game in 2023—below the league mean of roughly 62–63 for the first time since 2018—and posted a negative pass rate over expected down the stretch. Gretch expects that run-leaning, clock-bleeding approach to continue, projecting materially fewer dropbacks and red-zone snaps than the tempo-driven Ravens and Commanders. While Allen’s double-digit rushing-TD ability keeps his floor intact, the diminished play volume makes it “a lot harder” for him to match the 35-point eruptions Daniels and Jackson can generate, especially at Allen’s higher ADP in Best Ball tournaments.

Hayden Winks pitched Dalton Kincaid as a discounted ceiling play. Before last season’s injury Kincaid ranked TE8 in usage, and Dawson Knox—currently hurt—carries no guaranteed money after 2025, giving Buffalo every incentive to let its 2023 first-round pick prove he can be a difference-maker. Winks framed 2025 as the classic year-three breakout window for tight ends and said the Bills have reportedly asked Kincaid to bulk up so he can handle more inline work. If that adds 10–15% to his route share in 11-personnel looks, Winks sees a realistic path to a top-six finish in an offense projected to score plenty of points. Because Kincaid’s ADP has slid into the double-digit rounds, Winks is willing to take the swing when chasing tournament-winning upside instead of settling for a lower-ceiling option like Dallas Goedert.

Jason Moore warned that paying a late-second-round price for Josh Allen is dangerous because of the opportunity cost at other starting positions. In current drafts drafters must pass on workhorse backs such as Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor or an elite tight end like Trey McBride to secure Allen. Moore is still confident Allen will finish as an elite fantasy quarterback, but he emphasized that the selection only truly pays off when the QB separates by multiple points per game—as Lamar Jackson did last season. Because the rushing-QB cheat code can also be found later—he specifically cited Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts going several picks cheaper—Moore prefers to take the high-floor skill players in round two and target his quarterback in the third or fourth, effectively fading Josh Allen at current ADP.

Andy Holloway pumped the brakes on drafting Dalton Kincade as a breakout tight end, pointing to yet another offseason injury report that surfaced the same day. Holloway reminded listeners that Kincade’s rookie line of 73-673-0 looked a lot like Kyle Pitts’ empty yardage rookie season and that year-two regression followed because the player never looked fully healthy. While a tight end does not need WR-level yardage to crack the top six, Holloway argued Kincade would still need six to eight touchdowns to matter and it is difficult to envision that spike if the back issue keeps flaring up. Given Buffalo’s firmly spread-the-wealth passing attack and Josh Allen’s apparent preference for James Cook near the goal line, Holloway advised passing on Kincade at his mid-round ADP and letting someone else absorb the medical risk.

Mike Wright said Keon Coleman is the only Buffalo pass catcher he is willing to draft, framing the rookie as a low-risk, high-reward ticket you can grab in the 10th round. Wright likes that Coleman is younger, far more athletic than Khalil Shakir, and was clearly drafted to replace the lost star power of Stefon Diggs. With Buffalo still searching for a dominant red-zone target, Wright believes Coleman’s size and contested-catch chops give him a plausible path to become Josh Allen’s go-to option inside the 20. Because the Bills’ depth chart lacks an established alpha and because Coleman’s cost is so low that managers can cut bait after a couple of weeks if the role never materializes, Wright views him as an ideal upside swing in best-ball and the final flex spot of deep season-long leagues.

Andy Holloway warned drafters not to chase any single Buffalo wide receiver this year because the roster lacks an alpha target earner. He noted that 2024 was the first time in eight seasons a top-five fantasy quarterback failed to produce a top-30 wideout or top-10 tight end, a pattern he blames on the Bills’ spread-the-wealth attack. The current depth chart — Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer and Curtis Samuel — features a collection of solid NFL WR2/3 types rather than a Stefon Diggs-level star, while Dalton Kincaid and pass-catching back James Cook siphon additional looks. Holloway expects Josh Allen to keep distributing the ball, making it difficult for any receiver to deliver consistent starter-level fantasy output. His advice: fade the ambiguity and treat Buffalo pass catchers as boom-bust bench pieces rather than every-week starters.

Jason Moore sided with Tee Higgins in the listener’s dynasty dilemma, arguing the newly-inked wideout is the more reliable long-term chip than Bucky Irving. Higgins just secured a four-year, $115-million extension that locks him to Joe Burrow through his age-29 season, guaranteeing stable quarterback play and a multi-year target share in an offense that has already produced three straight top-20 fantasy campaigns for him. Moore acknowledged Higgins’ recurring soft-tissue issues but called those "manageable" compared with the structural cliff running backs face after a 300-touch season. Irving, while only 22, still has to prove he can shoulder a three-down workload and, like most backs, faces an uphill battle to earn a second contract. Moore reminded listeners that replacement-level receivers rarely carry multi-year upside, whereas established top-20 WRs provide a production floor dynasty rosters can build around. Net takeaway: if you can only keep one, bank the long runway and attach yourself to the Burrow aerial attack with Higgins.

Nick Holz said fantasy managers should steer clear of Josh Allen at his current 2025 ADP of 22 overall (early round-2 in 12-team formats). Holz argued Allen would need a historic campaign—think Aaron Rodgers 2011, Peyton Manning 2013/14, or Patrick Mahomes 2018—to pay off that slot. He noted Allen’s 2024 passing yardage and touchdown totals were both down from his career norms, and even his rushing yardage slipped despite a career-high 15 rushing scores masking the decline. Holz prefers Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts, all of whom go later and boast stronger supporting casts. DraftKings has Allen’s rushing-TD prop at 10.5, signaling sportsbooks also expect regression. With a shrinking statistical cushion and a sky-high draft cost, Holz is fading Allen in season-long drafts.

Rich Cooling touted Khalil Shakir as a dependable WR3 for managers who loaded up on volatility elsewhere. Shakir averaged 12.2 PPR points per game in 2024, logged only three games below 10 points, and projects for a locked-in slot role that should yield 5–6 targets weekly in a Josh Allen led offense that finished top-two in passing DVOA. While Cooling concedes Shakir lacks true week-winning upside, he believes the floor and consistency are perfect for redraft rosters that already feature high-ceiling, low-stability options at other positions.

Tom Strachan called James Cook ‘a hard click’ at his current RB14 cost. Cook ranked just 24th among running backs in yardage last season and relied heavily on touchdowns to buoy his fantasy output. With Cook holding out of camp, Strachan anticipates negative touchdown regression and sees no guarantee the backfield scores stay concentrated on him. If drafter confidence wanes and his ADP falls, Strachan might reconsider, but at present pricing he prefers cheaper Bills skill players who can soak up any scoring that shifts away from Cook.

Tom Strachan labeled Dalton Kincaid a screaming value at TE14 ADP. Kincaid led all tight ends in targets per route run as a sophomore, ranked fourth in yards after catch per reception, eighth in PFF receiving grade, and tenth in yards per route run. Strachan expects those underlying efficiency numbers to translate into volume with Dawson Knox the only real roadblock—historically, Kincaid’s spike weeks have come whenever Knox misses time. In an offense that finished top-two in passing DVOA behind Josh Allen, Strachan believes Kincaid possesses mid-tier TE1 upside at a fringe TE2 price.

Jeff Mueller is fading Dalton Kincaid after reviewing the tight end’s medical chart. Kincaid is still healing from last season’s left-knee PCL sprain and has already undergone surgery on his right knee, a combination that has sapped weight and lower-body strength the Bills wanted him to add for more in-line work. Recent photos show noticeable mass loss, raising durability questions. With Dawson Knox still entrenched as the preferred run-game tight end and Buffalo unlikely to push 600 pass attempts because the team is too good for volume-driven game scripts, Mueller doubts Kincaid will see the snap share or red-zone usage needed to justify even his sagging ADP. He recommends passing on Kincaid in both season-long and best-ball drafts until the knees and role look more secure.

Although Whalen likes the player, he doubts Khalil Shakir can top last year’s production now that Buffalo invested Day-2 capital in Keon Coleman. The Bills want the rookie to become their boundary alpha, which would relegate Shakir to sporadic slot work. That role downgrade, combined with Dalton Kincaid’s rising target share, pushes Shakir outside Whalen’s top-45 and makes him a hard sell in 2025 drafts.

Alex "PropStarz" Christenson urged bettors to pass on Josh Allen at +600 to repeat as MVP. He stressed how rarely voters crown back-to-back winners and pointed out that Allen must fend off Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes in a loaded quarterback field. To stay in the mix, Allen would need to top last year’s hyper-efficient campaign—he sliced interceptions from 22 to 6 while steering an offense that averaged more than 3.0 points per drive—an improvement PropStarz finds unlikely. With narrative fatigue and fierce competition, he views the +600 price as lacking value.

Danny Brasco endorsed the season-long over on Khalil Shakir’s 775-yard receiving prop. He raved about Shakir’s 94 percent catch rate halfway through last season and elite marks in receptions per route and missed tackles forced per reception. Because Buffalo employs quick drags and shallow crossers as an extension of the run game, the slot receiver’s low average depth of target is not a concern. Brasco expects the Bills to lean on those underneath concepts while taking occasional deep shots to Keon Coleman, allowing Shakir to pile up yards after the catch. He believes the third-year wideout will build on last season’s production and could emerge as the team’s de-facto WR1, comfortably clearing 775 yards.

Alex "PropStarz" Christenson advised taking the under on James Cook’s 2025 rushing touchdown prop of 10.5. Cook erupted for 16 scores last season, but PropStarz called that a glaring outlier compared with the two rushing TDs he logged in both his rookie and sophomore campaigns. He expects regression across Buffalo’s entire offense, which ranked as one of only four units in league history to top 3.0 points per drive. Cook’s 190-pound frame keeps him off the goal line, Josh Allen vultured 12 rushing touchdowns of his own, and bruising rookie Ray Davis looms as another short-yardage option. With volume and efficiency both likely to dip, PropStarz considers double-digit rushing TDs a long shot and labeled under 10.5 one of his favorite season-long bets.

Danny Brasco said he is hammering the alternate Buffalo Bills regular-season win total at over 12.5 wins (+125) instead of paying ‑175 on the standard 11.5. Brasco projected a minimum of 13 victories, highlighting a favorable schedule that sets up a potential 5-1 start after Week 1: home matchups versus the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots and Falcons surround an early bye and a soft Panthers game. He emphasized that Buffalo’s toughest contests—Ravens in Week 1, and late-season tilts with the Chiefs, Eagles and Bengals—are all in Orchard Park, where wind and cold should favor the Bills’ run-centric attack. Brasco trusts a ground-and-pound identity behind an elite offensive line, a stingy defense enhanced by rookie corner Maxwell Harrison, and a deep linebacker room. If the roster stays healthy, he believes the Bills control the trenches well enough to reach 13-14 wins.

Best Ball Guy grabbed Ray Davis as his fourth running back because, in his words, the rookie offers real standalone volume rather than pure contingency. He noted the board turns shaky at the position after Davis—names like Austin Ekeler and Jalen Wright—so locking in Davis before that cliff keeps the backfield sturdy. With four runners he trusts for weekly touches, he can now concentrate on pounding wide receivers in the closing rounds.

Dwain McFarland said Josh Allen remains the premier floor-plus-ceiling quarterback and is worth a Round-3 pick in every 2025 season-long or best-ball draft. Allen has averaged 24.7 fantasy PPG since 2022, with four straight overall QB1 finishes before last year’s QB2 result. Even under Joe Brady’s more balanced attack (-1.8% drop-back rate over expectation in 2024), Allen still posted 233 passing yards and 15% of Buffalo’s designed rushes, plus an 11% scramble rate. The Bills have given him 37–48% of red-zone carries inside the 5 the past three seasons, producing 7, 15 and 12 rushing TDs. McFarland’s floor/median/ceiling model spits 18.8/23.0/28.9 PPG. Behind PFF’s No.3 O-line and with youthful receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid still having breakout potential, McFarland calls Allen “one of the safest picks on the board” and a priority when the elite WR tier dries up.

Best Ball Guy chose Ray Davis over Trey Benson and Rachaad White because the rookie has already flashed a work-horse ceiling. Davis erupted for 150 rushing yards on 23 carries the lone week he handled a full college workload and added another 50 yards through the air, showing three-down chops. If James Cook misses time or the Bills lean run-heavier inside the five (they ranked 27th in red-zone rush rate last season but hired Joe Brady full-time after a late-year philosophical shift), Davis could immediately seize high-value touches. At a double-digit ADP, BBG views him as the type of explosive contingency bet that can single-handedly swing playoff weeks in best-ball tournaments.

Davis Mattek warned drafters that James Cook’s 2023 touchdown total is the part of his profile most likely to slide backward. Mattek said he is not worried about Cook’s snap share or overall role in the Bills’ offense, but believes fantasy gamers should expect fewer TDs given how often Buffalo lets Josh Allen call his own number near the goal line. With Cook now carrying a late-third/early-fourth ADP, Mattek views him as overpriced relative to backs with similar workloads who are available later and whose scoring profiles are less fragile.

Ryan Heath said Josh Allen remains one of the safest league-winner bets in 2025 drafts. Allen is part of the "big three" signal-callers who have produced a league-winning playoff rate in five of the six seasons they have been selected in Rounds 3-4. Heath’s database shows every quarterback league winner since 2017 logged at least 55 rush attempts, and 62 percent cleared 100. Allen easily checks that box, averaging 108 carries and 9 rushing TDs per year during his career. With Buffalo now building its passing game around his legs and explosive outside-structure throws, Heath believes passing-TD variance is a bonus, not a requirement. Because the wide-receiver tier break hits right after Round 2, Heath prefers locking in Allen’s dual-threat ceiling in the early third, then attacking cheaper rookie WR values later on.

Whalen warned that James Cook will not repeat last year’s 16 touchdowns, but he still wants exposure because the Bills project as the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. Rookie Ray Davis and Ty Johnson will siphon some work, yet Whalen noted Josh Allen has leaned on a feature back near the goal line the past three seasons. Cook’s explosive runs and pass-catching chops keep him on the field in all scripts, and Whalen pegs 10–11 scores plus 45 receptions as a realistic "regressed" stat line that still pays off RB2 prices.

James Koh advised fading Dalton Kincaid at his current top-12 ADP because nothing has changed in Buffalo to grant him a feature role. Kincaid is still splitting snaps with Dawson Knox, and short-area receiver Khalil Shakir is simply better at the routes where Kincaid operates. Add in rookie Keon Coleman’s expected jump, the arrival of separator Elijah Moore, and the front office’s investment in Curtis Samuel, and Koh thinks there are far more paths for Kincaid’s target share to shrink than grow. The price tag assumes a volume bump that the roster dynamics actively work against.

Liam Murphy chose Dalton Kincaid over Dallas Goedert, citing a far higher ceiling. He noted that Buffalo’s target hierarchy is still ambiguous behind Stefon Diggs’ departure, leaving Kincaid’s 19% rookie-year target share plenty of room to climb. Murphy tied the pick to his earlier stance that the Bills plan to reduce Josh Allen’s goal-line carries to preserve their franchise QB; if Allen’s rushing scores drop from 14 to something like 7-8, those red-zone looks have to land somewhere, and Kincaid is the logical beneficiary given his 6’4" frame and 78th-percentile catch radius. With the Bills playing Washington in Week 17, Murphy likes the correlation of a potential shoot-out against a Commanders defense that allowed the NFL’s highest TE PPR points per game (15.7) last year.

Murphy warned that Josh Allen’s rushing TD total—14 last season—could tumble. Buffalo spent heavily on defense (adding Leonard Floyd and re-signing DaQuan Jones) and wants to keep Allen fresh. Murphy expects Sean McDermott to call fewer QB sneaks in low-leverage spots and let Ray Davis and the tight ends handle inside work when the Bills are protecting leads. Because Allen’s fantasy edge is tied to those 6-point plunges, Murphy thinks he now profiles closer to the QB5–QB6 tier instead of the consensus top two. He is pivoting to cheaper elite-upside options like Jaden Daniels in best-ball drafts.

Ben Gretch cautioned that James Cook’s Round-4 price rests almost entirely on a touchdown surge that is unlikely to repeat. Buffalo led the NFL with 32 rushing scores last year—three more than the run-first Eagles and Lions—after Joe Brady took over play-calling, yet only Cook and Josh Allen cleared six total TDs. Cook’s 16 rushing touchdowns dwarf his previous usage profile and mask the fact that Buffalo had more rush TDs than pass TDs for the first time in the Allen era (2022: 35/15, 2021: 36/20). Gretch warned drafters that Cook must maintain an extreme touchdown share in an offense that historically leans pass heavy; if Buffalo regresses even halfway toward its earlier split, Cook’s ceiling collapses. With rookie Ray Davis and veteran Ty Johnson siphoning goal-line snaps late last season, Gretch projects Cook closer to 8–10 scores and sees him finishing outside the top-20 RBs unless the Bills once again remain an outlier on the ground.

Rich Hribar highlighted Dalton Kincaid’s 27.2% targets-per-route rate—the highest among returning TEs outside Trey McBride—as proof the Bills sophomore owns elite earning ability. While Kincaid’s route participation sat at just 62.9% because Buffalo preferred Dawson Knox in heavier run looks, Hribar noted the Bills enter 2025 with the same coaching staff and no additional tight-end threats, making Kincaid’s situation more stable than Jonnu Smith’s or Jake Ferguson’s. Hribar believes a modest bump toward 75% route participation would vault Kincaid into weekly TE1 range.

Sam Monson said bettors should keep buying Buffalo Bills futures because the front office executed a calm, targeted offseason instead of a panic rebuild. He noted the club only had one true hole—cornerback two—and filled it with Maxwell Harrison while also stock-piling depth on the defensive line and in the secondary. Monson highlighted additions such as Joey Bosa, Josh Palmer, and draft picks TJ Sanders, Deion Walker, and Landon Jackson as proof that Buffalo upgraded the very area that failed them when five backups had to face Kansas City in the divisional round two seasons ago. With Josh Allen already giving them a top-five offense, Monson expects improved defensive health and versatility to keep the Bills in the AFC elite, making current Super Bowl and conference odds undervalued rather than something to fade.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told drafters to pump the brakes on Buffalo’s wide-receiver room. He is “pretty confident” no clear alpha emerges after Stefon Diggs’ exit, leaving Khalil Shakir, rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and assorted role players to cannibalize one another’s targets. Rather than paying up and trying to guess who pops, Pat prefers either fading the group entirely or sprinkling in just one—never more than two—of the cheapest Bills pass catchers on a roster. He views that approach as higher advance-rate EV than burning draft capital on a player whose weekly ceiling is capped by a committee.

Best Ball Guy called James Cook ‘in a different tier’ and was ‘happy I took James Cook there’ because the subsequent backs—he specifically named James Conner and David Montgomery—belong to what he labeled the ‘poopy doo-doo garbage’ tier. Cook, in his view, represents the final back with bankable workload and receiving juice before the dead zone hits, making him a priority pick in Rounds 5-6 of Underdog’s $5 Superflex drafts.

Best Ball Guy said the rumored Von Miller trade to Washington would weaken Buffalo’s defense and could ‘force them to throw a little bit more.’ Buffalo leaned run-heavy last year, but a softer stop unit would create shoot-out scripts that spike Josh Allen’s weekly pass attempts. BBG framed it as a quiet buy signal on the entire passing stack—Allen, rookie wideout Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid—because extra volume plus Allen’s dual-threat TD equity super-charges ceiling weeks in Underdog Superflex tournaments.