Matt LaMarca likes Javonte Williams as a contrarian pivot after his 15-carry, 2-TD showing against Philadelphia. With rookie Jaydon Blue inactive and only Miles Sanders behind him, Williams owns the Dallas red-zone job heading into a game where the Cowboys are six-point favorites over a Giants defense that just allowed two rushing scores to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. SimLabs rates Williams as notably undervalued relative to ownership at $5,800 on DK.

Scott Engel labeled CeeDee Lamb a priority fantasy play, predicting a sharp rebound from last week’s drop-marred performance. Lamb still delivered 7 catches for 110 yards at Philadelphia and now faces a Giants secondary that allowed multiple explosive plays to Washington receivers. Engel reminded listeners that Prescott torched New York for 404 yards and five TDs in their last meeting at AT&T Stadium and highlighted Dallas’ 63 % red-zone pass rate in Week 1. With the Cowboys carrying a 27-point implied team total and the Giants surrendering a 126.3 QB rating on slot targets in the opener, Engel forecasted double-digit targets and top-5 wide-receiver upside for Lamb in both DFS lineups and season-long leagues.

Scott Engel laid the points with Dallas at -4.5 on DraftKings, saying the matchup tilts heavily toward the Cowboys. Engel cited Russell Wilson’s feeble Giants debut (17-for-37, 168 yards, 44 rushing yards) and his diminished mobility at age 36 as reasons New York’s offense will stall again. He noted the Giants have been outscored 89-12 across their last three Week 1 games and generated only 231 total yards in the opener. Dallas, meanwhile, has taken 15 of the past 16 meetings, and despite trading Micah Parsons still fields a nasty front that just added Kenny Clark. Offensively Dak Prescott completed 76.6 % of his throws in Week 1 even with several drops, while CeeDee Lamb (7-110) and new bell-cow Javonte Williams (2 rushing TDs) give Dallas multiple paths to a touchdown-plus victory. Engel expects the Giants’ defense to tire from constant short drives, allowing the Cowboys to cruise past the 4.5-point number.

Will Hill advised betting Cowboys -4.5. He argued Dallas was "every bit as good" as Philadelphia in Week 1, noting dropped passes by CeeDee Lamb cost the Cowboys a win that would have changed public perception. With extra rest and home-field advantage, Hill believes Dallas should handle what he called an "inferior" Giants roster.

MacMillan laid –5.5 (–110, FanDuel) with Dallas largely because he refuses to back a Giants team starting Russell Wilson, who ranked dead last in EPA+CPOE in Week 1 and looked "old and uncomfortable" behind a shaky line. He noted Dallas ranked 13th in offensive EPA against Philadelphia, and Dak Prescott’s performance eased his preseason concerns. With the Cowboys looking better than expected on both sides, MacMillan sees a clear talent gap.

Dave Loughran is willing to lay Dallas –5.5, citing a lopsided quarterback matchup (Dak Prescott versus Russell Wilson, whom he doubts even finishes the game). He ripped New York’s supporting cast: Malik Nabers is the lone down-field threat, Wan’Dale Robinson averages five yards a catch, Theo Johnson still drops passes, and the backfield trio of Tyrone Tracy, Cam Skatteboo and Devin Singletary produced nothing in Week 1. He also worries the Giants’ offensive line cannot hold up. By contrast Dallas pairs CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson with a deeper backfield (Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders) and a defense that kept Philadelphia in check. Anything below six is a green light for him.

Gary Davenport grabbed the Cowboys +8.5, arguing the line ballooned only because Micah Parsons is no longer on Dallas’ roster. Davenport noted that—even minus Parsons—the Cowboys are "not biggest-spread-of-the-week bad." He expects Philadelphia to control the game but sees a classic back-door scenario in which Brandon Aubrey sneaks in a late, meaningless field goal for the cover. Unless owner Jerry Jones also ships out Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb before kickoff, Davenport believes the number is simply too big for an opening-week divisional matchup.

Tyler Everett backed Dallas to cover the +8.5 spread on Thursday night. He reminded readers that both 2024 blowouts came with Cooper Rush, not Dak Prescott, under center. Prescott owns a 9-4 career mark against Philadelphia and has won four of the last five meetings. Everett added that George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb gives the Cowboys a second perimeter threat the Eagles did not have to defend last year. He expects the improved passing attack to score enough points—late if necessary—to stay inside the number.

Will Hill backed George Pickens to clear 55.5 receiving yards in the opener at Philadelphia. Hill noted Pickens finally escapes the erratic quarterback play he endured in Pittsburgh and lands in a more pass-centric attack with Dak Prescott. Because CeeDee Lamb commands extra coverage, Hill expects Pickens to see softer matchups on the perimeter. With Dallas listed as an 8.5-point underdog, Hill anticipates a catch-up game script that forces Prescott north of 35 attempts, giving Pickens enough volume to sail past the posted total.

Anthony Dabbundo bet Dallas +8.5, calling the number an over-reaction to Micah Parsons being shipped to Green Bay. He pointed out the line opened at +6.5 and ballooned past one score despite Dak Prescott ranking 10th of 81 qualified QBs in EPA per play since 2021. Dabbundo trusts Prescott’s proven ability to mount late scoring drives and noted that Philadelphia’s defense will debut five new starters while still juggling the CB2 job opposite Quinyon Mitchell. With Vic Fangio moving pieces like Cooper DeJean around and depth thinner than last season, Dabbundo doubts the Eagles can dominate enough to cover such a big banner-night spread against an offense that went 36-15 in Prescott’s three healthy regular seasons before 2024.

Davis Mattek said CeeDee Lamb must be treated as an irreplaceable fantasy anchor. Over the past two seasons the average top-6 wide receiver has delivered 248 PPR points, while WR24 fell below 190 and players outside the top-30 slipped under 10 points per game. Mattek draws the elite cut-off at Brian Thomas Jr. (WR8) and argues that passing on Lamb, Justin Jefferson, or Ja'Marr Chase forces managers to pull a Puka-Nakua-level rabbit out of the hat just to break even. Because 11-personnel usage makes the position look deeper than it is, he advised spending first-round capital on one of these alpha receivers instead of hoping to back-fill later.

Davis Mattek labeled George Pickens a must-draft wideout in round four. He sees Pickens’ projection mirroring Tee Higgins’ but at a cheaper ADP. In Mattek’s view, the pass-heavy Dallas offense produces wide touchdown variance: Pickens’ floor season is four scores while his ceiling pushes 11. Because the Cowboys are ‘one of the heaviest PRO teams in football,’ Mattek believes that swing makes Pickens the best ceiling-to-cost play among fourth-round options.

James Koh called Brandon Aubrey 'the best kicker in the game' because he’s attached to a high-scoring Dallas offense. Koh is happy spending a 15th-round pick on Aubrey, and if someone else snipes him he likes pivoting to rookie Tyler Loop in Baltimore, noting John Harbaugh’s willingness to attempt long field goals.

Chris Raybon said to smash the under on Javonte Williams’ 525.5-yard rushing prop. Raybon noted that ever since Williams’ 2022 ACL tear he has been a shell of his former self, rattling off 2024 game logs such as 8-for-23, 11-for-17, 5-for-12, and a four-game stretch that totaled 14 carries for a single yard. Williams produced three separate games with one or fewer rushing yards and finished the season with lines like 6-15 and 4-24. Raybon called it a "basement-level floor" and reminded listeners the Cowboys have already cycled through veterans like Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott, a signal the staff is willing to turn the backfield over quickly if Williams sputters again. Add a likely timeshare and there is, in Raybon’s words, “no realistic path” to 500 yards, let alone 525.5.

Sean Koerner bet Javonte Williams under 500.5 rushing yards (Caesars posts 525.5) for 2025. Williams is penciled in as Dallas’ Week 1 starter only because the book offers a line for every nominal RB1; Koerner doubts he holds the job. Miles Sanders and fifth-round rookie Jaden Blue are waiting in the wings, and Koerner believes Blue could pull even on early downs as soon as September. Williams was brutally inefficient in Denver—he logged several 10-plus-carry games under 20 yards and posted three contests with one or fewer rushing yards on 14 carries—despite running behind a top-10 offensive line. The Cowboys’ line is a downgrade, and the club could skew pass-heavy if Micah Parsons’ contract stalemate weakens the defense and forces shootouts. Koerner actually sees Williams’ best path to snaps coming on passing downs, not grinding carries. With a post-ACL track record that suggests replacement-level play and real risk he slides into a committee, Koerner thinks anything above 500 yards is too generous.

John Laghezza loves George Pickens in Round 4 after the trade to Dallas. Pickens already produced +2.0 yards per route run while catching passes from struggling quarterbacks. Now he gets a quarterback upgrade and the luxury of operating opposite CeeDee Lamb, which Laghezza thinks could recreate last year’s Bengals-style passing fireworks. He calls Pickens an affordable shot at WR1 production in a juggernaut offense.

Mike Wright urged fantasy managers to scoop up Jake Ferguson, who just signed a four-year, $50 M extension with $28 M guaranteed (sixth-highest average at the position). Ferguson missed Week 2 last year after an opening-game injury but still hit 10+ half-PPR points in three of six outings with Dak Prescott—despite scoring zero touchdowns all season. Wright views that scoreless line as positive TD regression fuel, reminding listeners that Prescott has a long history of drilling seam throws to his tight ends. With no depth behind CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks aging, Wright believes a healthy Ferguson can flirt with 90+ targets and finish easily inside the top-10 tight ends, smashing his current TE16 ADP.

Ian Hartitz called Javonte Williams the most mis-priced running back on the board. Dallas never signed or traded for competition, so Williams enters Week 1 as the unquestioned Cowboys RB1, yet his ADP is still outside the top ten rounds because drafters spent the summer panicking about a potential veteran addition. Hartitz argued that locking up the starting backfield in a Dak-led offense after the WR50-55 range is an easy value play and recommended scooping Williams any time he slips into double-digit rounds instead of chasing satellite backs with lower weekly ceilings.

Strachan argued Lamb could push Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson for the WR1 crown. Dallas plans to lean even heavier on Dak Prescott’s arm because the run game "isn't going to be good," which could inflate Lamb’s already massive target share. With field-stretchers clearing out space underneath, Lamb projects for both volume and efficiency spikes, making him a strong pivot if Jefferson is gone at 1.04.

Jim Coventry pointed out that Jake Ferguson falls outside the top-12 tight ends in drafts despite evidence he can produce TE1 numbers whenever Dak Prescott is under center. Ferguson’s 2023 line was 71-761-5 plus three more TDs in the Wild Card round. In 2024 he played only seven games with Prescott yet hit 70 receiving yards in three of them and topped 11.9 PPR points in four. Production cratered once the backup quarterback took over and Ferguson missed time with injury. With Prescott healthy and George Pickens stretching the field, Coventry expects space to open underneath and emphasized Prescott’s historical tendency to feature his tight end. On a pass-centric Cowboys team, Ferguson is “set for a huge season” and should be drafted as a late-round upside pick.

Jim Coventry said Dak Prescott is mis-priced at a QB9 ADP and has clear top-five upside. In Prescott’s last three fully healthy seasons (2019, 2021, 2023) he finished QB2, QB3 and QB7. Coventry expects Dallas to abandon past run-heavy tendencies because the current backfield of Javonte Williams, Jaydon Blue, Miles Sanders and Phil Mafa is unlikely to sustain drives. He also flagged a banged-up defense that should force shoot-outs. The front office added George Pickens to join CeeDee Lamb and breakout tight end Jake Ferguson, giving Prescott down-field and underneath options that make the passing game difficult to scheme against. With no reliable rushing attack and more weapons than ever, Coventry projects a massive jump in pass attempts and urged gamers to “draft, draft, draft” Prescott at his current cost.

Davis Mattek called George Pickens one of the clearest buy signals in 2025 best ball. Since entering the league Pickens averages 0.646 receptions of 30-plus yards per game and 17.8 % of all his catches have gone at least 30 yards, second-best in the NFL. Yet he has finished inside the top-36 fantasy wide receivers in fewer than half his games because he endured Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Matt Canada in 2022 and a patched-together Russell Wilson/Justin Fields offense in 2024. In 2025 Pickens upgrades to Dak Prescott with Brian Schottenheimer directing the passing game, a shift Mattek believes will give Pickens one of the largest year-over-year projection bumps of any receiver. He urged drafters to be overweight on Pickens’ down-field efficiency now that competent quarterback play and a pass-friendly coordinator are in place.

R.J. White took Dak Prescott at +900 in the 40-plus touchdown market. White doubts many quarterbacks even sniff 40, so he wants a generous payoff and Prescott fits. Dallas’ running back room is unsettled, which pushes red-zone work toward the passing game. With CeeDee Lamb and newly acquired George Pickens stretching the field, White expects a mix of goal-line play-action scores and long bombs to give Prescott a legitimate chance to hit 40 TDs relative to the price.

Larry Hartstein said Dak Prescott is mis-priced at +900 to lead the league in passing yards. Hartstein pointed to Dallas trading for George Pickens to team with CeeDee Lamb, tight end Jake Ferguson, and deep threat Jalen Tolbert, giving Prescott a deeper arsenal than ever. Prescott already owns three seasons of 4,400-plus yards, so the ceiling is proven. With Joe Burrow the short favorite, Hartstein prefers the longer number on Prescott in a bet-on arm-talent, pass-heavy offense.

Larry Hartstein picked Dak Prescott in the ‘most passing yards’ futures market. Prescott already owns a 4,900-yard season and three others above 4,400. Hartstein expects Dallas’ defense to regress sharply—especially if Micah Parsons holds out—forcing shootouts. The front office added vertical threat George Pickens to a skill group that already boasts CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, and Prescott rekindled chemistry with Jalen Tolbert this summer. Hartstein likes the value relative to favorite Joe Burrow and sees a realistic path for Prescott to pace the league in yardage.

Alan Seslowsky explained why he is grabbing Brandon Aubrey as early as Round 11. Aubrey can hit from 60 yards, plays on a Dallas offense that led the league in extra-point attempts last season, and—crucially—has a double-digit bye week. Seslowsky argued that a late bye lets managers avoid burning a second roster spot on a replacement kicker, which preserves bench flexibility after September injuries pile up. He added that today’s NFL has several long-range specialists, so the only time he ‘reaches’ for a kicker is when that kicker combines elite range with a bye of Week 10 or later—boxes Aubrey checks.

Josh declared Miles Sanders a landmine at his current ADP. Sanders has only "mixed in" with the first-team offense while nursing an injury, and camp buzz says little beyond that he merely exists in the rotation. Josh believes the veteran looks "totally washed" and would not be surprised if the Cowboys move on from him within weeks. Dallas complicates matters by carving out snaps for a fullback and gadget touches for wideout KaVontae Turpin, while Javonte Williams handles passing downs and even George Pickens is getting goal-line work. Josh predicted the result will be the league’s ugliest committee, leaving Sanders without reliable weekly volume and making him an easy fade in every draft format.

Kevin Szafraniec endorsed Jake Ferguson as the perfect fourth tight end for a best-ball build built around early stability (Brock Bowers) and late-season upside. He expects Ferguson’s role to grow down the stretch while rookie Colston Loveland acclimates, positioning Ferguson for playoff spike weeks. Because the roster already has reliable early scorers, Szafraniec prefers Ferguson over veterans like Cole Kmet, noting that Ferguson’s breakout timeline meshes with a Week-8 bye at the position and gives the lineup another ceiling path when money weeks arrive.

Ronis called George Pickens’ 77.1 ADP 'a gift' compared to his 55 ranking. The Cowboys were third in pass attempts last year, a stark contrast to the Steelers’ fourth-fewest, and Ronis thinks Dallas’ up-tempo, pass-heavy attack will highlight Pickens’ 16.3-yard career average depth of target opposite CeeDee Lamb. Ronis projected a realistic path to a top-25 wide-receiver finish and advised drafting Pickens several rounds earlier than the ESPN room currently will.

Pickens already flashes WR1/WR2 underlying metrics and now links up with Dak Prescott, who averages 272 yards and 2.2 TDs when healthy. McFarland pointed to data showing 53% of post-third-year breakouts follow a major offensive change and believes Pickens can erupt as Dallas’ No. 2 behind CeeDee Lamb. He has drafted Pickens in 13% of his early builds.

Tom Strachan called CeeDee Lamb the “don’t overthink it” pick at 1.05 when Jefferson is gone. Lamb is the only wideout with 150-plus targets in each of the last three seasons, and the arrival of George Pickens should improve coverage dynamics rather than threaten volume. Strachan emphasized that Lamb has previously thrived alongside stronger target competition and that Dallas’ offense funnels through him regardless of surrounding pieces. With a locked-in role and elite PPR profile, Lamb offers the cleanest blend of floor and ceiling among the tier that opens at pick five.

Ronis projected a breakout for George Pickens now that he moves from Pittsburgh’s fourth-lowest pass-attempt offense to Dallas, which ranked third in pass attempts last year even while Dak Prescott missed nine games. Dallas has lacked a true WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb, and Ronis believes Pickens’ downfield skill set will thrive in Mike McCarthy’s high-tempo attack, giving him WR2 upside with weekly spike-week potential.

Jason Moore argued that George Pickens is badly under-drafted at WR29 and should be treated as at least a top-24 receiver with legitimate top-12 upside after landing in Dallas. Moore highlighted how poor quarterback play masked Pickens’ talent: his catchable-target rate has fallen from 25th to 71st among wideouts despite strong separation numbers. Dak Prescott, by contrast, ranks 7th in pass success rate, 6th in completion percentage, and 8th in passer rating over the same span. Prescott also leads the league in yards and is second in attempts on 15-plus-yard go routes— the exact route on which Pickens ranks #1 in yardage and #2 in catches the past two seasons. Moore likened the pairing to Baker Mayfield’s connection with Mike Evans, noting that CeeDee Lamb dominates the short and intermediate middle while Pickens will own the sidelines and end zone. He reminded listeners that since 2010 an average of four WR teammate duos per season finish inside the top-24, and ten different duos have both cracked the top-12. On a Dallas offense that “can’t run the ball” and projects to throw at a top-five rate, Moore sees Pickens as mis-priced league-winning upside in the sixth or seventh round.

Jason Moore argued that George Pickens is a sixth-round steal who can finally deliver on the upside that’s flashed since his rookie season. Moore pointed to Pickens’ age-adjusted production—before turning 24, only Pickens and Randy Moss have reached 2,800 receiving yards while averaging 16+ yards per catch—as proof of elite talent. The move to Dallas pairs his vertical, contested-catch style with Dak Prescott’s deep-ball accuracy, and camp reports show "a dozen" different touchdown clips already. Moore stressed that defenses will be forced to tilt coverage toward CeeDee Lamb, leaving Pickens in consistent one-on-one situations similar to T. Higgins beside Ja’Marr Chase. He believes fantasy drafters are over-reacting to three lukewarm seasons tied to quarterbacks like Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky; the Prescott upgrade removes that drag. Moore expects a spike in both volume and efficiency and advises drafting Pickens confidently at his current ADP, labeling him one of the best breakout bets of 2025.

Jakob Sanderson argued that George Pickens is mis-priced at WR25 (fifth round FFPC) after landing with the Dallas Cowboys. He noted Pickens’ per-route efficiency has quietly "gotten way, way, way better" even though raw production stagnated in Pittsburgh due to limited team drop-backs and occasional route benchings. In Dallas he projects 120-130 more routes than 2024, a swing Sanderson says fantasy managers routinely underestimate. Comparing 2024 Pickens to last year’s Tee Higgins, Sanderson is replacing the Higgins shares he can no longer afford at the 2-3 turn with cheaper Pickens, calling him "Tee 2.0." With Dak Prescott operating a pass-heavy attack opposite CeeDee Lamb, Sanderson sees no fundamental difference between Pickens’ ceiling and Higgins’, making Pickens one of his highest-exposure picks in both best-ball tournaments and redraft leagues.

Jason Moore told listeners that, once the top three off the board are gone, he prefers CeeDee Lamb to Justin Jefferson at 1.04. Moore already has Lamb ranked ahead straight up and the minor hamstring issue that is keeping Jefferson out of practice only cements the tiebreaker for him. He views Lamb as the top wideout in the same tier as Jefferson, Jamar Chase and Bijan Robinson, calling the drop-off after those names "a slight break." Moore’s actionable advice: if you land at pick four and Chase, Barkley and Robinson are gone, click Lamb and don’t overthink the injury headlines around Jefferson.

Matthew Wiley chose Dak Prescott over Kyler Murray during the draft, arguing that “all Dallas can do is sling it to win.” He expects the Cowboys to lean heavily on the pass, giving Prescott weekly 300-yard-bonus upside on DraftKings. Wiley already owned CeeDee Lamb, so grabbing Dak locked in a high-correlation stack that can separate in Week 17 shoot-out scenarios. The combination of projected volume, premium scoring for passing yards and touchdowns, and an elite WR1 makes Prescott a priority pick whenever he slides into the middle rounds.

Matthew Wiley said Javonte Williams is “absolute dust,” pointing to two straight seasons of under-performance even while running behind what he called “one of the best offensive lines in football last year.” Wiley added that after repeatedly letting drafters down, Williams now projects as the lead back in Dallas, yet he still does not expect a rebound because the inefficiency came despite elite blocking. Wiley’s takeaway for DraftKings Best Ball drafters is to steer clear at current ADP and allocate salary-cap equity elsewhere.

Matthew Wiley wants no part of Javonte Williams in 2025 drafts, labeling him "absolute dust." Williams produced replacement-level efficiency even while running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines last season. Dallas has since invested in dynamic rookies Jaden Blue and Tre Benson, and Wiley is loading up on both because he expects the coaching staff to phase Williams out quickly. If Williams could not separate behind a road-grader unit in 2024, Wiley sees little chance he holds off younger, faster backs this year. He recommends fading Williams entirely and scooping Blue/Benson in the double-digit rounds.

Jake Ciely moved CeeDee Lamb to the second spot on his overall board, slotting him behind only Ja'Marr Chase and in front of Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. Ciely reminded listeners that Lamb averaged almost 24 PPR points per game two seasons ago – the same rate Chase posted last year – a mark Jefferson has never hit. With Dallas likely forced into high pass volume because of a shaky offensive line and Dak Prescott needing a bounce-back season, Ciely expects Lamb to reprise that WR1 overall ceiling. The combination of recent elite production, projected target dominance and game-script-driven volume makes Lamb, in Ciely’s view, the safest and highest-upside pick at 1.02 in season-long drafts.

Ian Hartitz declared CeeDee Lamb his No. 2 overall selection, ahead of Justin Jefferson and Malik Nabers. Hartitz reminded listeners that Lamb already posted an overall WR1 season two years ago, averaging nearly 24 full-PPR points (over 20 in half-PPR)—the same per-game clip Ja'Marr Chase delivered last year. With Dallas projected to "score 40 points a game" and lacking target competition behind Lamb, Hartitz sees a clear path back to a 30-plus percent target share and double-digit touchdown ceiling. He labeled Lamb the safest bet to finish as the top wide receiver in 2025 drafts.

FantasyPros Staff hammered Jaydon Blue as their favorite sleeper at an ADP of 128.8 (RB47) on Yahoo. Reported first-team reps in Cowboys camp boost his immediate role odds, while comps to Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams underscored the upside: those veterans posted explosive run rates of 2.9% or lower in 2024, bottom-20 among 68 qualified backs per Fantasy Points Data, whereas Blue is labeled an "explosive runner" who already logged six receiving TDs last season. Staff suggested he could mirror 2024 breakout Bucky Irving, making him a late-round lottery ticket in season-long formats.

Tom Strachan argued that CeeDee Lamb belongs on the Chase/Jefferson tier for 2025 drafts. Lamb has banked 150-plus targets in three straight seasons – the only receiver to hit that mark each year – and Strachan expects the number to rise because the Cowboys’ ground game ‘looks woeful.’ He added that the arrival of George Pickens as an upgrade on Jalen Tolbert should ease coverage and boost offensive efficiency. With Dak Prescott’s unquestioned WR1 role and a likely pass-heavy script, Strachan labeled Lamb one of the ‘very best’ hero-WR selections and a legitimate threat to finish as fantasy’s overall WR1.

Chris Raybon placed George Pickens at WR 37, citing multiple red flags. He expects new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to be more run-heavy than Mike McCarthy, capping passing-game volume. Raybon also called Dallas a "circus environment" and said Pickens is one of the likeliest players to create a suspension-type headache, comparing the risk to former Steelers wideouts who imploded off the field. With uncertain pace, uncertain targets, and plenty of volatility, Raybon prefers safer "number-one" receivers such as Jauan Jennings in the same range and views Pickens mainly as a best-ball-only dart.

Sean Koerner projected George Pickens for "a little over four catches a game," an increase from his 3.6-catch career average, and ranked him exactly WR 27 where Yahoo currently lists him. Koerner expects Dallas to throw more than it wants because the running-back room is thin and the defense could regress if Micah Parsons’ health becomes an issue. With CeeDee Lamb occupying defensive attention, Koerner sees Pickens as a pure ceiling play who will supply plenty of spike weeks and is perfectly suited to serve as a third or even fourth wideout on fantasy rosters, especially in best ball formats where week-to-week volatility is rewarded.

George Pickens’ WR1/WR2 underlying metrics (elite aDOT, YPRR, contested-catch rate) finally get a quarterback upgrade in Dak Prescott, who averaged 272 yards and 2.2 TDs in his last two healthy years. McFarland highlighted that 53% of year-three breakouts coincide with a QB or team change, calling Dallas a perfect environment for Pickens to explode. At WR27 price (pick 64) he is McFarland’s third-most rostered wideout through seven rounds.

Fantasy Life Newsletter Staff framed Javonte Williams as the classic upside swing at an ADP of 108. Despite an ACL tear in 2022, Dallas handed him $3 million to operate in what projects as a top-10 offense with virtually no back-field competition. The downside (health risk) is already priced in—he’s going next to clear-cut backups—while the upside is controlling Cowboys goal-line work. If it fails, you cut a ninth-round pick; if it hits, you landed a potential every-week starter at a steep discount.

Marco D'Angelo took the other side on Dallas, backing the Cowboys YES-playoffs at +180. He believes the brutal NFC North will cannibalize itself, opening a wildcard path even if Dallas finishes behind Philadelphia. With Dak Prescott healthy and a deep receiver group, he expects the offense to rebound from last year’s injury-plagued campaign, which should keep the defense off the field and reduce late-game collapses. D'Angelo foresees plenty of high-scoring shootouts but enough wins for Dallas to sneak into the postseason, making the +180 price worthwhile.

Gianni the Greek called Dallas a prime fade and a bet to MISS the playoffs. He highlighted the NFL’s third-worst point differential in 2024, only two home wins, and a top-10 toughest 2025 schedule. Add a brand-new head coach, OC and DC, new offensive pieces, and Dak Prescott’s durability concerns, and VR sees too many red flags. Betting splits reinforce the stance: the Cowboys sit top-five in tickets to make the postseason but top-five in money on them to miss, a sharp–square divide Gianni wants to ride by fading Dallas.

Gianni the Greek highlighted a sharp fade on Dallas playoff futures: public bettors are hammering "Yes, make playoffs" at +175, giving it a top-five ticket count, yet professionals are laying -225 on "No." He interprets the split as smart money doubting a team with an overhauled coaching staff, a brutal schedule, and limited home-field edge. His recommendation is to follow the money and bet Dallas to miss the postseason.

Kelly Stewart also fired on the Cowboys at 6-to-1, calling the price "fairly absurd" given Dak Prescott’s 33-8 career mark inside the NFC East. She believes a couple of division road wins could flip the standings and thinks the market is fixated on Micah Parsons’ holdout and coaching uncertainty while ignoring Dallas’s upgraded receiving corps with George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb. In a division famous for volatility, Stewart wants the longest odds attached to the quarterback who has consistently dominated these rivals.