Ryan Noonan recommended betting the Cowboys at –115 (–120 at some shops) to take a wide receiver with their opening pick. Every credible mock he has seen for the past two weeks sends a pass‑catcher to Dallas, and the depth chart behind CeeDee Lamb is barren after the Brandin Cooks experiment fizzled. Noonan argued the fair line should be nearer to –200 given the organization’s clear need and the abundance of mid‑first‑round receivers who fit Mike McCarthy’s vertical offense. He dismissed running back and tight end as realistic hedges, saying the backs Dallas covets will not be on the board and Tyler Warren projects to be gone by pick 10. In his view, laying a small price here is a classic information edge in draft markets.

Derek Brown said bettors should jump on the plus‑money price for Matthew Golden landing in Dallas with the Cowboys’ first selection. Brown noted Golden has appeared in every mock draft he has written because the Texas burner checks every schematic box Mike McCarthy looks for opposite CeeDee Lamb: true field‑stretching speed, outside/inside versatility, and a vertical route tree identical to what the club tried (and failed) to unlock with Brandin Cooks. Brown views Golden as a much closer stylistic match to the Cooks archetype than favorite Tetairoa McMillan, which is why he believes the market is mis‑pricing Dallas’ intentions. With the Cowboys openly prioritizing a wideout and Golden’s skill set matching their history, Brown thinks any plus number here is a gift.

John Daigle predicted Dallas will choose Texas wideout Matthew Golden over Tet McMillan, citing Jerry Jones’s history of favoring marketable in‑state stars. Golden averaged 3.11 yards per route in Steve Sarkisian’s offense and recorded a 41‑inch vertical at 209 lbs, traits that mirror CeeDee Lamb’s pre‑draft profile. With Lamb’s extension looming and Brandin Cooks on an expiring deal, Daigle sees Dallas locking in a cost‑controlled WR2. Jersey sales narrative aside, he highlighted Golden’s 82% success rate versus man coverage and 11 career TDs on deep posts—routes Dak Prescott ranks top‑five in EPA. Bettors can attack Golden as first WR drafted at +400 and under 15.5 pick props.

Jonathan Jones predicted the Cowboys will keep it in‑state and draft Texas wideout Matthew Golden at No. 12. Golden clocked a 4.29 forty and racked up 316 yards and 4 TDs in the SEC title game plus CFP, performances that convinced Dallas he can thrive opposite CeeDee Lamb as an explosive WR2. Jones said team scouts have followed Golden since his Houston days, grading him higher than fellow speedster Ted McMillan because of better contested‑catch tape (68% win rate). Brian Schottenheimer’s offense lacks vertical juice, and Jones believes adding Golden pushes Brandin Cooks into a situational role. Draft prop bettors can still find Golden 25‑1 to be the first WR taken—Jones calls that a live longshot if someone leaps ahead of Cleveland at 2.

Jason La Confora recommended betting wide receiver at +225 for the Cowboys’ first selection. He reminded listeners that Dak Prescott’s 2024 cap hit is north of $60 million and Dallas must maximize the passing game while they figure out an extension. Jerry Jones has a history of nailing first‑round WRs (CeeDee Lamb, Dez Bryant) and loves the publicity splash. La Confora argued adding an X like Texas’ Isaiah Bond or LSU’s Malik Nabers would force defenses to pick their poison against Lamb, creating a more efficient offense than simply replacing Zack Martin at guard. Given Jones’ autonomy, La Confora sees WR as the most likely and most profitable angle.

Scott Smith told listeners that every one of his five Dallas‑area contacts—ranging from beat writers to regional scouts—believes the Cowboys prefer Houston speedster Matthew Golden over Tetairoa McMillan if they stay at pick 12. The front office traded for Jonathan Mingo last year to handle the big‑body X role, so they are now hunting a vertical field‑stretcher who can complement CeeDee Lamb. Golden averaged 2.8 yards per route run on go‑balls and posts in 2023, metrics Smith said Mike McCarthy specifically covets. FanDuel still lists Golden‑to‑Dallas at +195 in the exact‑player market, while Caesars shows +150. Smith has already wagered both numbers and urged bettors to grab anything north of +140, adding that only a surprise cornerback run or an unexpected slide by edge rusher Dallas Turner would push the Cowboys off the wide‑receiver plan.

Andy Holloway ranked CeeDee Lamb as his WR2 and called 2024 a "best‑case bad year." Lamb missed one game, gutted through a recurring shoulder issue in several others and still finished as the WR8. His fantasy points per game plunged from 19.7 to 14.2 almost entirely because his touchdowns were cut in half, something Holloway expects to normalize with a healthy Dak Prescott. Lamb led all wideouts in broken tackles last season, underscoring his after‑catch upside, and he has virtually no target competition: the Cowboys’ backfield and secondary pass‑catchers are unsettled. Holloway framed Lamb as a locked‑in first‑round pick whose TD regression should push him back into top‑five overall territory, making him a priority in both redraft and best‑ball formats.