Ben Standig sent Texas A&M edge Shamar Stewart to Detroit at pick 28, banking on Brad Holmes’s willingness to swing at ceiling after injuries exposed the Lions’ lack of pass‑rush depth. Stewart boasts a 96th‑percentile wingspan and 4.58 forty at 270 lbs but recorded just 6 sacks last year, making him the classic traits‑over‑production gamble. Standig referenced Zadarius Smith’s free‑agency exit and Aidan Hutchinson’s 91% snap share as proof the Lions need rotational heat. Betting angles: Stewart under 35.5 and first defensive lineman ‘without top‑production’ prop (+600). IDP formats can stash him as a double‑digit‑sack upside stash if coaching unlocks his tool set.

Ryan Noonan flagged what he considers a mispriced market on Detroit’s first selection. Books have defensive line/edge at –180 for the Lions’ pick 28, but Caesars is dangling +220 on the team taking an offensive lineman. Noonan argued that replacing free‑agent departure Kevin Zeitler remains a priority for GM Brad Holmes, and several plug‑and‑play guards—Cooper Beebe, Troy Fautanu, and Christian Mahogany—grade in the late‑first range. Given that 50 percent of recent mock drafts tracked by VR slot an interior lineman to Detroit, Noonan believes the fair price should be closer to +140. He recommended a single‑unit play on the +220 number as a portfolio hedge against the chalky D‑line narrative, especially because a guard selection would also protect the franchise’s sizeable investment in Jared Goff.

Andy Holloway called Amon‑Ra St. Brown the ultimate PPR security blanket and locked him in as a top‑five redraft pick. Holloway noted St. Brown quietly leads the entire league in red‑zone receptions over the past two seasons—surpassing even Ja’Marr Chase—which quells any fear the 6‑0, 197‑pound receiver is schemed out near the goal line. He cited St. Brown’s expanding role (career‑high 50‑percent snap rate out wide in 2024 after living mostly in the slot), back‑to‑back seasons over 140 targets and his iron‑man record of missing just one game in three years. The only potential speed‑bump is OC Ben Johnson’s departure, but Holloway believes new play‑caller Tanner Engstrand will keep the same timing‑based system because “you do not mess with a unit that finished top‑five in scoring and already has the quarterback‑receiver telepathy dialed in.” With Jared Goff’s accuracy (71‑percent career completion to St. Brown) and an offense returning all five starting linemen, Holloway projected another 100‑plus catches and 8–10 touchdowns, advising fantasy managers to treat him as a rock‑solid WR1 anchor in season‑long and best‑ball drafts.

Andy Holloway predicted David Montgomery will once again finish as a top‑15 running back on a points‑per‑game basis. His case rests on Detroit’s unwavering commitment to Montgomery near the goal line—he averaged 2.8 red‑zone carries last season even when Jahmyr Gibbs was healthy. Holloway noted that Ben Johnson’s departure could nudge the offense toward a slightly more conservative, run‑heavy approach under new OC Tanner Engstrand, but history suggests the Lions still live inside the five‑yard line. Montgomery’s 36% share of team rushing attempts inside the 10 dwarfed Gibbs’ 19%, and the veteran back hauled in a respectable 25 targets to prevent game‑script benching. Holloway views Montgomery as the cheaper way to buy into one of the league’s highest‑scoring offenses and believes the touchdown floor alone makes him a high‑end RB2 with top‑15 upside.

Andy Holloway urged drafters not to extrapolate Jahmyr Gibbs’ late‑season nuclear stretch into 2025 projections. With David Montgomery healthy, Gibbs averaged only 16.9 opportunities and 16.9 half‑PPR points per game—good but nowhere near the 30‑point explosions he posted during Montgomery’s Weeks 15‑18 absence when touches spiked to 23.3. Holloway expects Detroit’s total touchdowns to regress after leading the league last year, noting Jared Goff’s TD rate jumped from 5 % to almost 7 % and the Lions lost OC Ben Johnson. Even if rushing scores don’t simply replace passing scores, Holloway believes overall team scoring will dip, further limiting Gibbs’ path to top‑3 returns. He still loves the back’s league‑leading EPA per play but slots him closer to RB6‑7 unless the Lions signal a philosophical shift away from Montgomery.

Mike Wright bumped Jahmyr Gibbs all the way to RB2 on his early board, pointing to a league‑best EPA per play that was almost double Barkley’s. Gibbs also ranked #1 in Success Rate among backs with 250‑plus touches and was the only player in the top tier to offer both 70‑target receiving upside and true home‑run speed. Wright acknowledged David Montgomery is still around but argued that Detroit’s offense produced enough high‑value touches to sustain two backs last year. Gibbs’ efficiency profile—69‑target pace, top‑three explosive‑play rate—and his age‑24 breakout window give him both a stable PPR floor and week‑winning upside. Wright advises locking him in as a back‑half Round‑1 pick in redraft and a priority RB anchor in Best‑Ball tournaments.

Jake Butt advised fading the chalky –170 price on Detroit to go defensive line at pick 28 and instead firing on longer‑shot position markets. He highlighted +1,300 for the Lions’ first pick to be a cornerback and a juicy +3,800 for safety, reminding listeners that Detroit’s pass defense ranked 28th in EPA allowed and still lacks high‑end athleticism on the back end. Butt added that Brad Holmes has already shown a willingness to buck consensus (see Jameer Gibbs at 12) and could easily pivot if an elite DB prospect—Cooper DeJean or Malaki Starks—slides. He even sprinkled +210 on offensive line, citing Dan Campbell’s obsession with interior depth and the aging of Graham Glasgow and Kevin Zeitler. Butt’s takeaway: do not eat the defensive‑line juice in such a volatile late‑first range; the secondary and trench longshots offer far better value.