Chris Raybon said he is sprinkling the Packers at +280–+310 to win the NFC North and adding a smaller Super Bowl flyer (~35-1) because the conference has no true juggernaut and Detroit is overpriced. Raybon rattled off a laundry list of bullish indicators: • Jordan Love finished 5th in QBR (69.3), 4th in net yards per attempt (7.5) and 3rd in sack rate (3.2%) despite playing hurt for stretches, taking only 14 sacks in 15 starts. • The offensive line should jump a tier if Elgton Jenkins slides to center; rookie Marshawn Lloyd gives them their most explosive RB2 since Aaron Jones’ prime. • Jeff Hafley’s first season pushed the defense from 27th to 7th in DVOA while generating the NFL’s No. 1 blitz/stunt pressure rate. • Matt LaFleur is 5-1 to the win-total over, beating the market by 1.8 wins a year. He did flag two landmines—Green Bay still needs natural edge pressure and the cornerback room looks shaky after cutting Jaire Alexander (opponent passer rating jumped from 71 with him to 111 without)—but believes those concerns are already baked into the price. With the Lions an injury or two away from collapsing and Minnesota breaking in a rookie QB, Raybon likes using a half-unit package: one-third on the division, one-third on an NFC ticket in the low-20s range, and the rest on a Super Bowl stab.

Stuckey likes Green Bay as his favorite long-shot in the 20-to-25-1 range to win the NFC. He is a self-described “Love believer,” pointing out that Jordan Love’s underlying tape was better than the box score once you account for one of the league’s highest drop rates. The Packers now boast a comically deep skill group—Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, plus rookies Tez Walker and Javon Williams—and added explosive RB Marshawn Lloyd. Up front he expects an upgrade if Elgton Jenkins slides to center over Josh Myers, with the rest of the line finally slotting into natural spots. He also cited Matt LaFleur’s track record: 5-1 to the OVER on win totals, beating the market by 1.8 wins per season. If the offensive line stabilizes and the young defense takes even a mini-leap, Stuckey can easily see Green Bay emerging from a wide-open NFC, making the 22-1 (and similar 25-1) tickets worth a sprinkle.

JSU said the market has over-corrected on Jayden Reed. Reed’s rookie ADP was around 72, but he is now slipping to the mid-80s. If you liked him at last year’s price, you should love him with a 15-pick discount entering year two. JSU reminded listeners that Reed flashed a 30-point spike week as a rookie and still projects for a full-time slot role in Green Bay’s ascending offense. With no major additions threatening his snap share and an extra year of chemistry with Jordan Love, JSU views Reed as a cheap upside receiver who fits any Best Ball construction.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound argued that Jordan Love is the sharper QB2 than Jared Goff when you already have Josh Allen. Love’s 2023 line (330 fantasy points, 32 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs) produced essentially the same ceiling as Goff’s career-best 4,600-yard, 37-TD season, but Love adds rushing juice plus inexpensive back-end stacking partners. Pat stressed that in a 9,300-entry, three-week sprint you gain much more leverage by pairing Love with cheap Packers like Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft than by rolling out a ‘naked’ Goff who will be duplicated by every Lions super-stack. The ability to double or even triple-stack Green Bay late while still matching Goff’s raw projection makes Love the clear play at similar ADP.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound encouraged taking Malik Willis as a final-round QB3 dart in Superflex drafts. He argued that banking on a Jordan Love injury is no riskier than handcuffing a running back, yet the payoff is greater because Willis’ dual-threat profile has already produced NFL spike weeks. If Love were to miss time, Willis would inherit a Packers offense loaded with young pass-catchers while adding double-digit carry potential, making him a low-owned tournament winner. Pat summarized the bet as cheap, low-probability but massive-payout leverage that most of the field ignores.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound projected Josh Jacobs to become Green Bay’s clear bell-cow once the playoff race heats up. He acknowledged the Packers will likely spread touches early, saying the staff ‘wants to get more touches going in the direction of other players to help the workload of Jacobs.’ However, Pat believes that if Green Bay is competing for a postseason spot, the coaching staff will revert to a heavy-usage model with Jacobs, making him an attractive Greyhound pick for the playoff weeks when the money is on the line.

Andrew Novak said bettors looking for a non-Eagles ticket in the NFC should fire on Green Bay futures. His case started with Jordan Love’s dramatic year-one splits: when Christian Watson was healthy, Love averaged 8.4 yards per attempt and a 112 passer rating, production Novak believes rookie burner Matthew Golden can replicate if (when) Watson’s hamstrings flare up. He pointed out that the Packers still roll out a top-10 run game, a pass rush that finished sixth in pressure rate, and a secondary finally at full strength after losing Jaire Alexander for chunks of 2023. Novak thinks Detroit’s post-free-agency attrition and a Vikings rebuild give Green Bay a realistic path to 11+ wins while the Eagles slog through a first-place schedule, making Packers to win the conference or /30-1 Super Bowl darts “criminally mis-priced.”

After reading Hayden Winks’ thread detailing Marshawn Lloyd’s rookie-year gauntlet—hip, hamstring, ankle and appendix surgeries plus biomechanical testing at Wisconsin’s rehab center—Davis Mattek said he’s on the verge of deleting Lloyd from his ranks entirely. Mattek noted Lloyd is already working with the rehab group, a red flag for a player who must beat out AJ Dillon for touches behind Josh Jacobs. With Green Bay historically slow to trust rookies and Lloyd’s body ‘firing off every medical flare imaginable,’ Mattek is pivoting to undrafted hybrid Savion Williams as a cheaper hedge on Packers backfield uncertainty.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound suggested sprinkling in Savion Williams at the very end of drafts as a contingency bet on a Packers trade. He noted Green Bay has fielded calls on Christian Watson and has a roster crunch with nine wideouts. If they ship someone out, the 6'5" 221-pound rookie—who posted a 34% target share at TCU and ran a 4.48 forty—would instantly jump into three-receiver sets. Pat compared the situation to Dontayvion Wicks’ late-season pop last year and said Williams’ current sub-3% ownership creates an easy uniqueness lever for Week 17 Packers-Vikings stacks. Because the information could come late in camp, Pat is comfortable waiting, but in rooms where he already has Jordan Love or Romeo Doubs he likes clicking Williams over redundant RB fliers.

Davis Mattek warned drafters not to assume a 2024 volume leap for Jordan Love. He called it “wish-casting” to think Green Bay suddenly throws a ton because Matt LaFleur’s offense finished 17th and 31st in pass rate over expectation the last two years. Mattek reminded listeners that every branch of the Kyle Shanahan tree skews run-balanced—Kevin O’Connell is the lone exception—so expecting PROE positivity from LaFleur is betting against established coaching DNA. That conservative philosophy lowers Love’s weekly ceiling and, by extension, the upside of late-round Packers receivers like Dontayvion Wicks. Mattek still drafts Love when the Week-17 correlation lines up but is fading the idea he turns into a 600-attempt passer.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound flagged Dontayvion Wicks as a sneaky end-game pick who could pay off in a hurry if the Packers move on from Romeo Doubs. Pat admitted he was “completely off” Wicks last year, but the second-year wideout’s 18.8 % targets-per-route rate and 2.12 yards per route on limited snaps quietly impressed the staff. If a Doubs trade or injury opens 80–90 additional routes, Wicks would slide into Jordan Love’s top three, giving drafters a cheap piece of a passing offense that finished 6th in EPA per play after Week 10. The upside for a Week 17 shoot-out against the Vikings makes him an even cleaner fit for Underdog’s playoff structure.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound highlighted a sneaky Green Bay stack: start with new arrival Josh Jacobs, then layer in Jordan Love, Jayden Reed and tight end Tucker Kraft. He likes how Jacobs’ three-down role provides floor while the cheap pass catchers unlock ceiling, giving drafters a differentiating Packers build that few rooms replicate. Pat called the combination ‘pretty fun’ because it captures every touchdown path without spending elite capital at quarterback or receiver.

Conner Allen advised passing on Matthew Golden in the OROY market despite the enticing 28-1 sticker price. Allen does not expect the rookie to see meaningful volume in a Green Bay offense that already peppers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed while funneling red-zone looks to the two tight ends. With Jordan Love unlikely to push past 570 attempts in Matt LaFleur’s balanced scheme, Allen projects Golden for sub-15 % target share and fewer than 60 catches—far short of the statistical juice recent award-winning receivers have needed. He summarized the bet as “paying for upside that probably isn’t there.”

Tyler Sullivan agreed Reed is headed for a step back, pointing to the Packers investing both a first- and third-round pick at wide receiver. Sullivan said the front office is "letting us know" they dislike the current room. Reed’s game-log volatility—one week 120 yards, the next 30—underscored that concern, and his final eight games (19-237-3) are well below a true No. 1 WR pace. With greater target competition and no evidence of week-to-week reliability, Sullivan considers Reed a fade in season-long drafts.

John Breech predicted a Year-3 fallback for Jayden Reed. He cited Josh Jacobs’ offseason quote that the Packers "don’t have a No. 1 WR" as an insider red flag, then highlighted Green Bay selecting a wideout in Round 1 for the first time in 22 years and doubling down with Savion Williams in Round 3. That draft capital, Breech argued, screams front-office dissatisfaction with Reed’s ceiling after a 55-catch, 657-yard sophomore campaign that already trailed his rookie totals. Expect Reed to slide into complementary duty and lose targets to the incoming rookies—bad news for fantasy managers counting on a leap.

Bloom labeled Josh Jacobs a screaming value at the 2-3 turn, asserting there is "no reason to think Jacobs won’t do exactly what he did last year." Even after switching teams, Jacobs still profiles as a volume hog: the Packers let AJ Dillon walk and did not spend meaningful draft capital at running back, leaving Jacobs uncontested early-down and goal-line work in an offense that projects to be top-10 in neutral-situation pace. In half-PPR best-ball contests, Bloom views Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor and Chase Brown as mis-priced early-second talents regularly leaking into the late-second/early-third range.

Davis Mattek said Tucker Kraft is still one of the best TE2 values in Best Ball even though his Underdog ADP has slid nearly 20 spots since Green Bay selected rookie wideout Matthew Golden. Mattek thinks drafters are double-counting target competition. Kraft already ran a route on 81 percent of Jordan Love’s dropbacks over the final six weeks and tied for the team lead in red-zone looks during that stretch, so a mid-season rookie learning curve is behind him. Mattek added that last year’s minus-7 percent PROE is an outlier driven by Love’s Week-1 ankle injury; with Love healthy and the offensive line upgraded, he expects LaFleur to creep back toward league-average pass rate. With no veteran tight-end additions and only the oft-injured Luke Musgrave behind him, Mattek projected 90–95 targets and half-dozen touchdowns for Kraft—plenty to crack weekly Best Ball lineups at a TE25 price tag.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound pivoted to Tucker Kraft as his TE1 and called the pick “sneaky leverage on the entire Green Bay offense.” He cited multiple OTA reports suggesting Kraft is pushing to lead the Packers in targets while Christian Watson and Jayden Reed rotate outside. Pat expects an 80 percent route rate in Matt LaFleur’s scheme, which already ranked eighth in red-zone pass rate last year. Because tight ends dry up after Round 15, he loves snagging Kraft around pick 180 while the room chases replacement-level wide receivers. Pat views the move as cheap access to Jordan Love’s weekly ceiling and a natural bring-back opposite Vikings pieces in Week 16.

Mike Wright advised dynasty managers to treat Jayden Reed as a bench-only piece and move him if a strong offer appears. Wright noted Reed played just 60 % of snaps in 2024 and hit the Footballers’ 10.5-point consistency threshold in only 35 % of games despite finishing WR26 overall—a D consistency grade. Green Bay’s off-season additions of first-rounder Matthew Golden and third-rounder Savion Williams, plus holdovers Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft, create a six-deep rotation that will siphon snaps and targets. Reed’s current ‘number-one’ status came with part-time usage, and Wright warned Golden could seize the top spot outright. He compared Reed’s boom-bust profile to 2023’s two-TD explosions followed by multiple single-digit weeks and revealed he and Jason Moore just accepted Tyreek Hill straight up for Reed on an aging win-now roster, illustrating how eager they are to cash out before the market realizes Reed’s weekly volatility.

Pete Overzet explained why he keeps gravitating toward MarShawn Lloyd over other late-round rookie backs like Taj Brooks or Breschard Smith. In his personal probability model, Lloyd carries roughly a 70 % chance of opening the year as Green Bay’s RB2 behind Josh Jacobs, whereas he gives Brooks and Smith closer to a 20–25 % shot of being the clear No. 2 in their respective backfields. That confidence stems from three factors: (1) the Packers spent Day-2 capital on Lloyd, (2) coaches have already name-checked him when discussing potential ‘alpha’ pass-game contributors, and (3) the only backs ahead of him are a soon-to-be-30 Josh Jacobs and journeyman A.J. Dillon. Because early best-ball contests punish zeros, Overzet prefers allocating late bullets to runners with a stronger RB2 floor while still retaining contingent RB1 upside if the starter misses time.

Pete Overzet endorsed MarShawn Lloyd as a round-16/17 dart who could matter late in the season. He likes pairing Lloyd with Jayden Reed for cheap Green Bay correlation and said he feels more confident about Lloyd’s standing on the Packers’ depth chart than he does about similarly priced rookies such as Devin Neal in New Orleans. The selling points: Lloyd’s 4.46 speed and 93rd-percentile burst score fit the outside-zone looks Matt LaFleur leans on, the only backs in front of him are a soon-to-be-30 Aaron Jones and journeyman A.J. Dillon, and Green Bay backed their interest with day-two draft capital. Overzet thinks Lloyd could finish 2024 as the Packers’ best runner and provide spike weeks in the tournament window while costing almost nothing today.

Billy Jones flagged Dontayvion Wicks as a deep-round arrow-up name. With reports circulating that Romeo Dobbs could be dealt before camp, Jones said any trade would immediately bump Wicks into Green Bay’s top three wideouts. Wicks already stole 20% of Jordan Love’s Weeks 12-18 targets and ranked third league-wide in yards per route run versus zone after Thanksgiving. At a current fringe-undrafted ADP, Jones believes a Dobbs move would trigger a two-round jump overnight and give Wicks spike-week utility in Packers stacks.

Billy Jones urged drafters to pounce on Jayden Reed after an 11-pick slide that followed Green Bay’s signing of veteran WR Marquise Goodwin (mis-reported as Golden in some rooms). Jones said coach quotes confirmed Reed’s 60-to-65 percent snap share will be unchanged, so the market reaction is noise. He expects Reed to rebound quickly once drafters remember the Packers finished eighth in offensive points last year and have done nothing to threaten Reed’s slot/jet-motion role that produced 64-793-8 as a rookie. Jones projected another 100-plus targets and labeled Reed “this week’s obvious riser list candidate.”

Cody Woodman said he is "not super high" on Josh Jacobs at his current early-third-round price, citing several red flags. Jacobs logged 340 touches last season—including 316 carries during his Raiders swan song—and faded badly down the stretch, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry after Week 12. While Cody acknowledged Green Bay invested heavily in the offensive line this offseason—signing Aaron Banks and drafting Anthony Belton and Jordan Morgan—he reminded listeners that head coach Matt LaFleur publicly said last year he didn’t want a true bell-cow but had to ride Jacobs out of necessity. With rookie Marshawn Lloyd shelved, Jacobs again projects for a punishing workload that could sap his efficiency. Cody has Jacobs ranked RB15 (overall 28th) and will only click him when he slides a full round past ADP, preferring to spend that capital on wide-receiver upside in balanced builds.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound flagged Romeo Doubs as the kind of extreme value spike-week hunters should pounce on in BBM6 drafts after landing him 47 spots past current ADP. Pat said the Packers’ wide-receiver room is crowded behind Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, so a summer trade remains very possible. If Doubs is dealt to a less crowded depth chart he ‘probably flies up the board,’ giving drafters both a massive closing-line value cushion and latent situational upside. Even if he stays in Green Bay, the near 50-pick discount bakes in minimal opportunity cost while still capturing the spike-week profile he showed with four games of 18+ half-PPR points last season. Pat’s takeaway: keep clicking Doubs any time he slides multiple rounds because you are effectively getting a free lottery ticket on both role expansion and ADP rise.

Davis Mattek flagged MarShawn Lloyd as a must-grab in Round 16 best-ball drafts. Mattek reminded listeners that Matt LaFleur is fanatically committed to a two-back rotation—last year he still handed touches to UDFA Emmanuel Wilson and practice-squad refugee Chris Brooks while Lloyd sat out with an emergency appendectomy. The third-round pick now has that appendix out for good, eliminating the 2024 durability red flag. Mattek expects LaFleur to keep the backfield split even after drafting big WR/RB hybrid Savian— projecting roughly 90-100 carries and a handful of weekly targets for Lloyd even in a healthy offense. If the starter misses any time, Lloyd’s fresh legs and Day-2 pedigree give him a clear runway to 15-plus touches and league-winning upside. Mattek called him “Trey Benson five rounds cheaper” and is stuffing exposure at his current price.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called taking Jayden Reed at overall pick 61 a "force" because Reed’s normal Underdog ADP hovers in the mid-80s. Pat said drafters can still land the second-year Packer "68% of the time" at or below ADP and sees no reason to pay a two-round premium with Christian Watson healthy and Dontayvion Wicks expected to chew up slot routes. He is passing on Reed whenever the room inflates his price into the 5th round, labeling the reach thin in both ceiling and closing-line value.

Mike Wright urged managers to keep pressing the draft button on Jaden Reed, arguing that historical data all but guarantees another step forward. Wright’s study of every wide receiver since 2014 shows that players who crack the top-24 as rookies meet or beat the following season’s fantasy expectation 94% of the time, versus just 52% for year-two breakouts. Reed already beat ADP despite an inconsistent rookie workload and now returns with a full offseason in the same Jordan Love system. Wright expects Green Bay to push tempo again—8th in neutral-situation pace last year—and sees Reed’s 18% rookie target share climbing past 22% with no meaningful additions. He likened the setup to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s second-year leap and is comfortable drafting Reed as a mid-range WR2 even though the market still prices him outside the top-30.

Jon Warner called MarShawn Lloyd the forgotten back of 2023 rookie fever and a screaming value in the 17th round of Sprint drafts. Warner reminded listeners that Lloyd was pushed into the 120s last summer on raw athleticism alone, then cooled when USC’s offense sputtered. Now he lands in Green Bay behind 26-year-old Josh Jacobs, who is coming off a 3.5-yards-per-carry season and nearly 400 touches worth of tread. Warner expects Matt LaFleur to revive the two-back rotation that allowed both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to be fantasy relevant, noting the Packers have finished top-12 in neutral-situation rush rate in four of the last five seasons. If Jacobs misses time—or simply cedes goal-line work the way Jones once did—Lloyd’s 215-pound frame and 4.46 speed give him "league-winner contingency juice" at a near-free cost.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound warned drafters not to chase Savion Williams in Round 18 just because he wears a Packers helmet. Pat read back-to-back quotes from Green Bay brass—GM Brian Gutekunst insisting Williams is “not a gadget guy” and Matt LaFleur conceding the rookie is still “unpolished as a route runner.” Pat reminded viewers Williams played wide receiver for only one college season after converting from running back, so expecting immediate NFL refinement is a leap. In Pat’s view the Packers’ habit of rotating five wideouts each week means Williams will be a sporadic jet-sweep specialist whose four-to-five touches are impossible to time in best ball. He would rather spend the pick on a backup running back or a correlated piece, calling Williams “a fun athlete, not a fantasy asset—at least this year.”

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Dontayvion Wicks a screaming value in the 180s because the only thing suppressing his price is Romeo Doubs still being on the roster. Pat put decent odds on a Doubs trade and noted that Green Bay already deploys near-league-high three-wide sets and aggressively rotates receivers. If Doubs is moved, Wicks would jump from rotational flier to full-time outside starter, but even without the trade Pat likes the pick: "a guy going in the 180s on an offense that plays three wide all day makes no sense." Wicks only needs two or three spike weeks to pay off in the Sprint’s cumulative playoff format, and Pat is already up to 40 percent exposure.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said now is the moment to hoard MarShawn Lloyd shares because he expects the rookie to jump a full round into the 15th by the end of training camp. Lloyd is already penciled in as the Packers’ No. 2 back behind Josh Jacobs, which Pat believes puts him one injury or workload tweak away from 12-plus weekly touches. At today’s 17th-/18th-round Sprint price you are paying for a pure stash, but Pat argued that closing-line value, contingent touch upside and Green Bay’s historically run-heavy red-zone profile combine to make Lloyd one of the few late backs who can actually start for you in fantasy playoffs.

Hayden Winks said Josh Jacobs is one of the easiest ADP wins on the entire board. He reminded viewers that Jacobs was a consensus first-round pick last summer and then posted another 1,300-plus scrimmage-yard season, yet he now slips into the mid-third because drafters are trying to convince themselves last year was a fluke. Winks noted that Green Bay did not add meaningful backfield competition—MarShawn Lloyd barely saw the field as a rookie and the Packers ignored RB in the draft—so Jacobs should reprise the 18-to-20-touch workload that made Aaron Jones a fantasy staple. With Jordan Love’s offense trending up (top-10 in points per drive after Week 9) and zero threat on passing downs, Winks projected Jacobs for another 50-target season and labeled his current RB15 price “pure closing-line value” for both Best Ball and redraft rooms.

Pat Kerrane highlighted Romeo Doubs as the lone stable piece in Green Bay’s young receiver room. Doubs has run at least 80 percent of Jordan Love’s routes in every healthy game dating back to Week 1 of 2023, something no other Packer has matched. Kerrane thinks rookie Matthew Golden stretching the field may actually free Doubs for more middle-of-field targets instead of threatening his role. With an ADP outside the top-150, managers are effectively paying for Doubs’ floor while getting a chance at 6-to-8 target weeks if the offense remains top-10 in neutral-situation pass rate. Kerrane considers him a perfect WR6/7 who keeps best-ball builds from bottoming out when the early-round alphas hit bye weeks.

Jason la Canfora prefers taking a bigger swing on Jordan Love for MVP. He reminded listeners that Love’s 2023 campaign was hampered by the foot injury he suffered on the Brazil turf but pointed to the prior postseason stretch when Love led the league in touchdown passes over the second half. La Canfora is bullish on a young Packers roster that already owns playoff experience, notes Green Bay added more pass catchers, and trusts Matt LaFleur’s QB-friendly tutelage. Love cut back on interceptions down the stretch last year, and at a much longer price than the favorites, JLC views him as the best value on the board.

Pat Kerrane framed Matthew Golden as a classic ceiling bet whose current mid-70s ADP is not pricing in the realistic outcome that he simply becomes Green Bay’s best wide receiver by October. Golden cost the Packers a first-round pick, and Kerrane reminded listeners that draft capital almost always trumps incumbent mediocrity—Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and a chronically dinged-up Christian Watson profile as replaceable role players, not obstacles. Golden brings 4.39 speed, a 19-year-old breakout age, and a 2.40 career yards per route run despite scatter-shot quarterback play at Texas. With Jordan Love showing top-10 efficiency flashes and Matt LaFleur ranking sixth in pass-rate over expectation during neutral game scripts last season, Kerrane believes there is a clear path to 110–120 targets and multiple spike weeks. He is comfortable drafting Golden ahead of Jaden Reed and sees the rookie as a cheaper way to access elite Packers correlation when he starts WR-heavy in Best Ball rooms.

Erik Beimfohr pushed back on the Josh Jacobs enthusiasm, saying the new Packer comes off the board in the early third round while similar touch projections for Joe Mixon and Chuba Hubbard can be had a full round—or more—later. Beimfohr pointed out that the wide-receiver names available next to Jacobs (DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Travis Hunter) carry genuine league-winning ceilings, whereas Jacobs profiles as a ‘maybe he’ll be okay’ volume play. He also noted that Green Bay’s pass-heavy tilt with Jordan Love and three capable receivers could suppress the red-zone carry count that buoyed Jacobs during his 2022 RB1 season. Unless Jacobs slides toward the Mixon/Hubbard price tier, Beimfohr is pivoting to those cheaper backs and scooping the elite receivers that share Jacobs’ current ADP pocket in Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane argued that Josh Jacobs is mildly mispriced, saying drafters should treat him as a late-second/early-third pick instead of letting him slide to the middle of Round 3. Kerrane noted the probability of Jacobs simply "chugging along" as Green Bay’s unquestioned RB1 is far higher than the market implies; Marshawn Lloyd or A.J. Dillon would have to become stars to dent Jacobs’ workload. The Packers ranked ninth in combined RB expected fantasy points last season, and Matt LaFleur has historically leaned on a single back once trust is earned. Kerrane framed Jacobs as the same 260-touch, goal-line-favored profile that used to be drafted on the 2/3 turn but now comes at a lower opportunity cost next to wide receivers like DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson. While acknowledging minor durability concerns, he believes the median outcome still returns a top-15 season and provides early-season stability for Best Ball builds that start WR-heavy.

Billy Jones highlighted Dontayvion Wicks as a final-round smash if you’re betting on movement in Green Bay’s receiver room. He believes there’s a “non-zero chance” Romeo Dobbs is shipped out before Week 1, and if that happens Wicks—who already posted a superior 2.08 yards-per-route as a rookie—would immediately slide into a full-time perimeter role opposite Christian Watson. Jones noted that drops sank Wicks’ playoff usage but called that noise rather than signal; Wicks’ contested-catch rate (56%) and slot versatility fit perfectly with Jordan Love’s gunslinger tendencies. Should Dobbs leave, Jones projects a jump from 56 to roughly 80 targets and sees two to three 20-point outings that can flip Best Ball Mania advance rates. Even if nothing happens, he prefers Wicks’ efficiency metrics over Dobbs at cost, making him a no-brainer dart when you need late wide-receiver juice.

Jakob Sanderson advised passing on Matthew Golden anywhere inside the top-24 rookie picks, calling him a likely real-life role player rather than a fantasy difference-maker. Sanderson highlighted Golden’s 1.85 career yards per route run and 17 % targets-per-route rate—both well below the 25 % threshold hit by past small-framed perimeter alphas like Tyler Lockett or Jordan Addison. His statistical comp list (Henry Ruggs, John Ross, Kadarius Toney, Nelson Agholor, Rashod Bateman) is littered with boom-bust vertical specialists who never earned elite target shares. Sanderson projects Golden for a capped 15–17 % slice of Green Bay’s passing pie, pointing out that even in an offense that finished 10th in pass attempts, such volume produces only WR3/FLEX weeks. Because first-round receivers who fail to crest a 20 % rookie target share lose an average of 35 startup spots by Year 2, Sanderson would rather pivot to Luther Burden or future 2026 picks than gamble on Golden’s outlier path to sustained fantasy value.

Davis Mattek urged managers not to overthink Matthew Golden’s middling college target shares, arguing that first-round draft capital, 4.38 speed at 203 lbs, and an early-declare profile make him a smash pick in the mid-second of dynasty rookie drafts. Mattek loves that Golden immediately chose jersey number 22—"one for every team that passed on him"—seeing that chip-on-shoulder mentality as a bullish marker historically shared by alpha receivers. He emphasized that Jordan Love just supported three WR2-plus fantasy weeks for Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed despite neither topping a 20 % target share, leaving plenty of room for Golden to carve out volume. Mattek also noted Golden’s 2-TD breakout in the College Football Playoff and the fact Texas tried to reverse its transfer-portal decision once Isaiah Bond faltered, suggesting Golden’s raw stat line hides an ascending talent. With no established No. 1 in Green Bay and the Packers ranking 6th in neutral-situation pass rate last season, Mattek ranks Golden ahead of veterans like Tyler Lockett and Jerry Jeudy as a high-variance WR3 who could spike into WR1 territory by 2026.

Rob Coakley called MarShawn Lloyd one of the biggest winners of the real-life draft and could not believe the rookie was still available in the 16th. Coakley told viewers they should start yanking Lloyd up several rounds—into the early-teens at minimum—because sharper rooms will not let a day-two back with an immediate path to touches linger this late much longer. In a cumulative-scoring format, he is happy to ‘reach’ for Lloyd now, betting that the combination of draft capital and a shallow depth chart produces meaningful weekly volume before the market fully corrects.

Rob Coakley called MarShawn Lloyd a “big winner on draft day” and said drafters need to start yanking him up the board instead of waiting until the back half of the teens. Coakley reasoned that Lloyd’s NFL landing spot and draft capital wiped out any real competition for early-down work, giving him a realistic path to immediate touches and spike-week upside in cumulative-scoring formats. Because Round 16 quickly turns into a wasteland, Coakley is perfectly happy paying a slight premium—two to three rounds ahead of current ADP—to secure exposure before the market corrects.

Davis Mattek called MarShawn Lloyd a ‘pretty big winner’ coming out of the draft because the front office declined to add meaningful backfield competition. Lloyd’s only threats remain special-teamers Patrick Wilson and Emmanuel Wilson, neither of whom profiles as more than a change-of-pace option. Mattek noted that Lloyd already flashed explosive upside with a 4.38 forty and a 28-percent college target share, making him uniquely positioned to siphon both early-down carries and third-down work if the coaching staff tires of the committee. With an ADP outside the top-150 and no veterans like Austin Ekeler or J.K. Dobbins signing, Mattek is grabbing Lloyd as a final-round lottery ticket who could walk into 12-15 touches by mid-season.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Dontayvion Wicks is a smash any time he lingers past pick 190. Wicks quietly logged more snaps than Jayden Reed down the stretch and even led the Packers in targets during his largest snap share game (13 looks in Week 13). Pat believes there’s a realistic 20 percent chance Green Bay trades Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson’s chronic hamstring issues remain unsolved, creating a clear path for Wicks to settle in as Jordan Love’s full-time perimeter WR2. At a 17th-/18th-round ADP you’re paying for a WR5 flier but getting a player who already earned a 16 percent target share as a rookie in a LaFleur offense projected to finish top-10 in pass attempts. Pat urged drafters to bank the free ceiling exposure before any Doubs trade rumors or Watson injury reports push Wicks up a full round.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound suggested keeping at least a sprinkle of Romeo Doubs exposure because a preseason trade could unlock easy closing-line value. Pat noted that media rumblings about Green Bay shopping Doubs have persisted since the veteran publicly complained about his target share last year. If a deal materializes, Doubs’ current double-digit-round ADP would immediately correct upward—especially if he lands on a roster with a clearer path to WR2 snaps. Even if he stays, Pat believes the Packers’ wide-open rotation still grants Doubs a handful of spike-week opportunities. Bottom line: do not go overweight, but do not zero out either—“a few shares now could pay off the moment Schefter tweets an unexpected trade.”

Eric Luttrell said MarShawn Lloyd is the easiest way to grab cheap asymmetric upside in the final two rounds of Best Ball Mania 6. Green Bay spent Day-2 capital on Lloyd last year, rode out a freak appendectomy and ankle sprain that wiped out his rookie season, then passed on adding any meaningful back behind new starter Josh Jacobs. Luttrell argued that tells us the Packers are optimistic about Lloyd’s health and plan on using a two-back rotation—something Matt LaFleur has preferred in every season he has coached. If Jacobs were to miss time, Lloyd would vault into a featured role with only UDFA Emanuel Wilson behind him. Even without an injury, Luttrell expects Lloyd to siphon 6-10 touches per game, giving him weekly spike-week potential at a completely free ADP. His target exposure: “at least eight percent of my portfolio before training-camp blurbs push him inside the top 150.”

Jason Moore advised passing on Matthew Golden in 2025 redraft and shallow best-ball builds. Moore hammered Golden’s lack of college production—just 845 receiving yards over three seasons and what he called “the worst production profile ever for a first-round wideout.” Moore noted Green Bay already goes six-deep with viable pass catchers (Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave and third-rounder Savion Williams) and expects target distribution to remain wide, pointing to Matt LaFleur’s 63 % 11-personnel rate and league-high 10 different receivers with 15-plus targets last year. With Doubs and Watson still under contract through 2025 and Reed entrenched as Love’s slot favorite, Moore believes Golden will need an injury or a 2026 roster purge to matter, making him a dynasty stash only and a clear avoid in seasonal formats outside of ultra-deep benches.

Davis Mattek said he is slashing Jayden Reed’s ranking from the mid-WR30s to the WR45-46 range after the Packers spent a first-round pick on Matthew Golden. With only one "fast-but-shaky" separator spot available in Matt LaFleur’s scheme, Mattek believes Reed will lose high-value slot snaps and manufactured touches to Golden, lowering Reed’s ceiling for spike weeks. Mattek still expects Reed to run routes as the primary slot/Z hybrid, but projects his target share to fall into the 17-18 percent range—down roughly two full percentage points from 2024—making him a back-end FLEX in season-long and a thin bet in Best Ball Mania drafts unless his ADP craters into the double-digit rounds.

Davis Mattek warned listeners not to write Matthew Golden off just because the landing spot was less than ideal. Mattek admitted he is lower on Golden’s overall profile than Pat Kerrane, but stressed that first-round wide receivers almost always give drafters at least one usable fantasy season—citing Kelvin Benjamin’s 145-target rookie year, Nelson Agholor’s WR3 stretch, and John Ross’s eight-game spike as proof of concept. Green Bay’s depth chart lacks a locked-in vertical threat with Christian Watson’s role vacated, meaning Golden can still post a 20-22 percent target share the first year he wins a full-time job. Mattek is fading Golden in dynasty—ranking all first-round quarterbacks, including Jaxson Dart, ahead of him—but will continue to take best-ball stabs whenever the rookie slides past his late-Round-9 price because the combination of draft capital, athleticism, and Packers pass volume offers clear spike-week potential even if Golden never develops into a long-term alpha.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the idea that Matthew Golden is merely Christian Watson 2.0, labeling the Packers’ first-round pick a Zay Flowers-style separator who wins with short-area quickness and route nuance rather than pure long speed. Kerrane noted film scouts had Golden graded as a first-rounder despite modest raw production because he “just gets open,” and Reception Perception charting backed that up with a 63 % success rate on nine routes while also showing strong slant and comeback efficiency. He emphasized that Green Bay historically values receivers who demonstrate the ability to earn targets—Golden posted a 19 % career market-share of receiving yards and 24 % of touchdowns even while dealing with Quinn Ewers’ “diabolically bad” accuracy in 2024. With Christian Watson’s vertical role vacated and Matt LaFleur’s Shanahan-influenced scheme willing to feature different body types (Ayuk, Deebo, Kittle comps), Kerrane expects Golden to step in as an immediate full-time player and command a Dotson-like rookie season of 90-plus targets. At his current mid-second-round rookie ADP and WR60 territory in Best Ball Mania, Kerrane views Golden as a buy who can deliver flex-worthy volume out of the gate with hidden spike-week upside if he hits big plays downfield.